indus basin challenges & opportunities ......contribution of snow and ice western river stations...
TRANSCRIPT
INDUS BASIN CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES(Perspective from India)
Shakil A RomshooDept. of Earth Sciences
Kashmir University
PRESENTATION OVERVIEW
A FEW THOUGHTS
CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO
SHRINKING CRYOSPHERE
STREAMFLOW CHANGES
HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT
GROUNDWATER SCENARIO
LAND SYSTEM CHANGES
COMMON CONCERNS
• INDICATORS of CC are loud and clear in the UIB
• We have lost ~ 20% of the GLACIAL MASS during
last 5-6 decades in the UIB
• Significant DECLINE IN THE STREAMFLOWS
since 1990s due to the depletion of cryosphere
• SHIFTING hydrograph peaks, change in the FORM
of precipitation and LOW STORAGE CAPACITY are
a CONCERN.
• USAGE OF WATER entitled under IWT is under-
utilized mainly due to the land system changes &
topographic constraints
• GW over-exploitation is an important concern in
the LIB
A few Thoughts….
• Huge Hydropower Development in the UIB
• Implications of depleting cryosphere under changing
climate on water, energy and food security are far-
reaching in the Indus basin
• How much water is stored in the Indus cryosphere?
• Lack of Data Sharing in the basin
• Water issues if not understood in the right perspective
have potential to COMPLICATE THE SOUTH
ASIAN SECURITY
• SCIENCE should guide public policy/ planning &
diplomacy (ENV/Water sharing/CC adaptation)
A few thought….
OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TRENDS
Negi et al., 2018
WINTER PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY
Negi et al., 2018
FORM OF PRECIPITATION
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Av
era
ge_T
em
pera
ture
(0C
)
Average Temperature (Dec. & Jan.) DISCHARGE
RAINSSNOW
11
Source: WAPDA
Contribution of Snow and Ice
Western River StationsApproximate
Contribution of
Snow and Ice
Period
Annual
Inflows
(MAF)
Ice and
Snow
Contrib.
(MAF)
Indus at Tarbela 85%
1961-
2013 60.72 51.6
Kabul at Nowshera 75%
1961-
2013 21.65 16.2
Jhelum at Mangla 65%
1961-
2013 22.20 14.4
Chenab at Marala 50%
1961-
2013 25.36 12.7
Western Rivers Average Inflows 129.93 MAF
Total Western Rivers Snow and
Ice Contribution 95.0 MAF
Total Contribution of Snow and
Ice in Western Rivers73.1 % 12
STREAMFLOW PARTITIONING
Snow melt Glacier melt Rainfall
54.83% 6.14% 38.03%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
% Snowfall
Rainfall
Snow Precipitation = ~ 52%
Liquid Precipitation = ~48%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1971-801981-901991-002001-102011-13
Dic
har
ge(C
use
cs)
Time Period(Year)
Aru Spring
Summer
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-13
Dis
char
ge(C
use
cs)
Time Period(Year)
Sheshnag Summer
Spring
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-13
Dis
char
ge(C
use
cs)
Time Period(Years)
BatkootSpring
Summer
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-13
Dis
char
ge(C
use
cs)
Time Period(Years)
Akura Spring
Summer
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-13
Axi
s Ti
tle
Axis Title
Kirkadal Spring
Summer
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-13
Dis
char
ge(C
use
cs)
Time Period(Years)
Gur Spring
Summer
Summer and Spring Streamflow
Modelling streamflows under Changing Climate
Snowfall Percentage
Snowmelt Contribution
Baseline 2050s 2070s
~52%~40.4
%~41.1%
2050s 2070s
~18.5% ~19%
Baseline 2050s 2070s
~52% ~38% ~35%
2050s 2070s
~23% ~31%
Baselin
e2050s 2070s
~52% ~34% ~29%
2050s 2070s
~31% ~44%
RCP 2.6
RCP 4.5
RCP 8.5
UNPUBLISHED WORK
BCC CSM1-1 BNU ESM GFDL CM3 INM CM4 IPSL CM5A-LR MIROC5 CGM3 NorESM1-M
HYDROPOWER SCENARIO
• Rapid Economic Development
• Staggering Population Growth
• Thirsty farms
Depletion of 1 ft of GW annually equivalent to
109 Cubic Km of GW disappeared between 2002-08
ENVIRONMENTAL FLOWS
Before After
1973 1991
2001 2013
1983
2026
2038 2050
LA
ND
SY
ST
EM
CH
AN
GE
S IN
KA
SH
MIR
(1973
-20
50
)
SHRINKING WETLANDS AND WATER BODIES(WULLAR LAKE SINCE 1911)
Concerns on Indus Water Sharing
COMMON CONCERNS
CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS
SHRINKING CRYOSPHERE AND DEPLETING
STREAMFLOWS
DEPLETING GW RESOURCES
CUMULATIVE IMPACTS OF HP PROJECTS
WATER USE EFFICIENCY
FLOOD VUNERABILITY
EFFICIENT DATA SHARING
ENVIRONMENTAL FLOWS
28
Thank you