indonesia's weather bureau says el nino

August 24, 2015 A Weekly Snapshot of Southeast Asia Commodities News and Commentary

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INDONESIA’S WEATHER BUREAU SAYS EL NINO STRENGTHENS, TO LAST UNTIL FEBRUARY 2016 By Cristina Pastor, SACD Staffer

A strong El Nino is now present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and this could impact the

amount of rain Indonesia will get in the coming months.

The Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG) of Indonesia (Meteorology,

Climatology and Geophysics Agency) said El Nino will conditions are now strong.

“This will potentially reduce the supply (of rain) eastern Indonesia and (areas) south of the

equator,” BMKG said in a monthly report.

El Nino is an abnormal warming of waters in the equatorial Pacific and strong ones often result

in drought striking countries like Indonesia, the Philippines and several other countries in

Southeast Asia.

A meeting of the Indonesia Coordinating Ministry of Marine Affairs has reported recently that

sea surface temperatures, wind patterns and ocean currents strongly indicate the El Nino “will be

of the same intensity” as the one in 1997, the strongest in recorded history.

Indonesia is the world’s top producer and exporter of palm oil, the No. 3 producer in the world of

cocoa, and one of the top five producers of coffee.

The impact of El Nino has so far is hard to gauge in the region although Thailand is already

suffering from a drought which will likely reduce both its rice crop and exports in 2016.

The dry season in Indonesia normally runs through the end of August, but the strengthening El

Nino could disrupt the arrival of timely rains in September and on through December which

would impact the development of crops for the 2015/16 season.

Estimates by the Indonesian Coffee Exporters and Industries said the country’s coffee output will

likely reach 600,000 to 650,000 tonnes, from an earlier forecast of 650,000 to 700,000 tonnes.

The Indonesian government said dry spells or drought is already being seen in parts of Java and

Sumatra, key areas for crops such as rice, palm and coffee.

For a look at historic crop yields changes due to El Nino in Indonesia, the U.S. agricultural

attaché recently released the chart below:

http://www.informaecon.com/

http://www.informaecon.com/sacd.asp

Southeast Asia Commodity Digest August 24, 2015

Copyright © 2015 by Informa Economics, Inc.

The weekly update of the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said there remains an over 90 percent

chance of El Nino and that there is a 70 percent chance it would last through early spring of next

year.

In its monthly discussion of the weather pattern, it said “the forecaster consensus unanimously

favors a strong El Nino.”

“Leading climate models suggest that it may intensify from moderate to a strong El Nino in the

coming months (last quarter of 2015) and may last until early 2016,” the Philippines’ official

Pagasa weather bureau said in a monthly El Nino advisory for August.

Pagasa said that rains in July were near to above normal in the main rice growing areas on Luzon

Island and the sugar areas of Negros Island, but “the rest of the country experienced below to

way below normal rainfall conditions.”

The region is closely following the development of this El Nino, given its potential to inflict

serious damage on crops across the region.

The U.S. agriculture attaché in Jakarta has previously said if the worst forecasts are accurate, El

Nino would be “running through Indonesia’s largest food cycle.”

But a later report cautioned though that production losses in sectors like Indonesian palm

plantations in the record 1997/98 El Nino “are a worst case scenario, and that there are several

mitigating factors that may offset this.”

In Bangkok, Thailand is already trying to cope with a drought which has forced the government

to curb the discharge of water for its rice farmers which could hit rice exports in 2016.



The Thai Meteorological Department said total rainfall is still 24 percent below the norm in July

and that even assuming normal rains arrive between August and October, the level in reservoirs

will be even lower in the next dry season rice crop in 2016.

“This will negatively affect Thai rice exports in the second half of 2015 and into 2016,” a report

by the U.S. agriculture attaché in Bangkok said.

Dry season crops in Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia are also seen getting hit late this year if the

El Nino strengthens as expected.

PALM OIL OUTLOOK: TRADE FRETS CHINESE YUAN DEVALUATION COULD LEAD TO DECLINES IN EDIBLE OIL IMPORTS

The official Malaysia Palm Oil Board said in a report for the week ending August 18 there is

concern in the market demand from leading consumer/importer China could decline as a result of

the devaluation of the country’s yuan currency.

China and India are the leading importers of Indonesia and Malaysian palm oil, as the two

Southeast Asian producers enjoy a significant freight advantage over rivals in South America.

(See table below on level of imports of palm oil by China and India).

On a fundamental basis, palm oil production in Indonesia, the world’s biggest producer of the

edible oil, is seen hitting 33 million tonnes in 2015/16 from 33 million tonnes in 2014/15 as

worries over a drought caused by an El Nino weather pattern take hold.

Indonesia’s palm oil plantings are seen rising to 10.8 million hectares in 2015/16, from 10.6

million in 2014/15. Harvested area is at 8.9 million hectares in 2015/16 versus 8.5 million in

2014/15.

Production in Malaysia has been running higher than last year (See MPOB data below) but the

question facing the market would be the level of demand for palm.

Prices of soy oil in Chicago and in the Chinese exchange of Dalian would also impact palm oil

prices.

The production should run strongly through the end of the year, as is usually the case.

The biggest question would be the impact of a strong El Nino since it may affect the crop for the

2016 season.



MONTHLY PRODUCTION OF OIL PALM PRODUCTS SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF JULY 2015 2014 & 2015 (TONNES) - MPOB

Months Crude Palm Oil Palm Kernel Crude Palm Kernel Oil Palm Kernel Cake

2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 JANUARY 1,508,980 1,160,687 387,348 291,989 182,902 145,686 203,051 161,956 FEBRUARY 1,275,812 1,121,628 322,104 279,309 164,034 115,040 180,782 128,551 MARCH 1,497,142 1,495,151 386,648 379,309 170,828 176,111 188,887 193,936 APRIL 1,555,777 1,693,425 389,028 432,422 177,074 182,114 195,163 201,278 MAY 1,656,957 1,810,709 399,244 449,426 186,543 218,638 207,431 241,631 JUNE 1,569,684 1,763,928 357,295 413,561 174,726 197,602 192,966 219,113 JULY 1,665,661 1,815,631 406,098 430,988 171,352 183,287 188,908 202,498 TOTAL 10,730,013 10,861,159 2,647,765 2,677,004 1,227,459 1,218,478 1,357,188 1,348,963

MONTHLY CLOSING STOCKS OF OIL PALM PRODUCTS FOR THE MONTH OF JULY 2015 2014 & 2015 (TONNES)

Months Palm Oil Palm Kernel Palm Kernel Oil Palm Kernel Cake

2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 JANUARY 1,935,215 1,770,022 144,989 105,980 274,523 258,841 311,899 297,205 FEBRUARY 1,656,931 1,743,311 109,829 135,504 251,610 215,186 229,680 257,657 MARCH 1,688,093 1,865,927 130,532 136,178 259,764 239,823 236,291 230,703 APRIL 1,766,190 2,189,479 139,529 173,583 273,228 255,768 253,781 278,712 MAY 1,841,341 2,248,578 142,238 150,648 274,099 303,174 309,040 346,216 JUNE 1,656,756 2,151,744 124,597 136,753 313,045 289,118 290,464 380,959 JULY 1,684,756 2,265,494 164,619 168,822 290,899 278,631 256,462 314,424 AVERAGE 1,747,040 2,033,508 136,619 143,924 276,738 262,934 269,660 300,839

PALM OIL EXPORTS TO CHINA, INDONESIA AND THE EU BY MALAYSIA IN TONNES FOR JANUARY TO JUNE 2015–MPOB

January February March April May June 2015 2014

China 216,253 64,765 132,722 262,713 359,660 243,932 1,280,044 1,493,251

India 160,170 222,162 297,549 87,391 342,859 435,833 1,545,963 1,156,308

EU 172,269 136,510 94,369 130,520 267,245 216,678 1,036,160 1,141,072



INDONESIA PALM OIL PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS FROM JANUARY TO MAY 2015 – INDONESIA PALM OIL ASSOCIATION

ASIAN RICE OUTLOOK: CASH PRICES SLIP AS WEAK DEMAND DRIVES VALUES SOUTH

Cash rice prices in Southeast Asia continued to decline as demand was generally quiet in the

region, with no sign of import interest from buyers such as the Philippines.

The Thai Rice Exporters Association said the price of Thai white rice 100 percent Grade B was

at US$378 per tonne FOB on August 19, from $385 per tonne FOB on August 13.

The price of 5 percent broken Thai white rice was at $370 per tonne FOB on August 19, from

$377 per tonne on August 13.

Thai white rice 25 percent broken was at $359 per tonne FOB on August 19, from $366 per

tonne on August 13.

Quotes for Thai rivals Vietnam and India were running again at a discount to Thai grain.

Vietnam is the leading rival to Thai rice in the regional export market.

Vietnamese 5 percent broken rice was quoted at $340 per tonne on August 19, a discount of $30

to the same rice coming from Thailand.

India 5 percent rice was quoted at $355 per tonne, a $15 discount to Thai rice as it reversed an

$8 premium to Thai rice last week.

Vietnam 25 percent broken rice was quoted at $325 per tonne FOB on August 19 and a $34

discount to Thai rice.

Indian rice of the same variety was quoted at $335 per tonne and a discount of $24 to the Thai

grain.

http://www.gapki.or.id/Assets/upload/crudeindex/cpo.jpg



The USDA’s lower numbers on Thailand essentially adopted the estimates of their agricultural

attaché in Bangkok who had cut the estimate on Thai rice exports.

Late last month, the Thai Ministry of Agriculture’s Disaster Center said around 1.5 million rai of

main crop rice will be adversely impacted by the drought, especially in the lower northern region

and central plains where water discharges have been cut back.

Thailand’s Royal Irrigation Department has been reducing the water discharge for agriculture

due to worries about possible water shortages the rest of the year.

If the current drought is linked to El Nino, the situation could well take a turn for the worse.

Climate forecasters said the current El Nino is garnering strength and should hit its peak in the

last quarter of 2015.

If El Nino peaks in the second half of 2015 as expected, dry season rice and corn crops are

believed under threat in Southeast Asian countries such as Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos.

Between 1980 and 2013, there have been 3 strong, 5 moderate and 2 weak El Ninos, according to

data from the U.S. National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

PHILIPPINE DOMESTIC RICE PRICE UPDATES NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME By Cristina Pastor, SACD Staffer

Domestic rice price updates issued by the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) were not

available because they are being integrated into the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

The last update from the (BAS) showed that the price of well milled retail rice, the most popular

variety for consumers, stood at 41.58 pesos/kg for the week ending July 21.

That is the highest level for that variety of grain since April 7 when the price was at 41.65 pesos.

Wholesale well milled retail rice was at 38.30 pesos/kg for the week ending July 21, also the

loftiest since April 7 when it hit 38.41 pesos.

The price of regular milled retail rice was at 37.31 pesos/kg and regular milled wholesale rice

was at 34.60 pesos/kg in the week ending July 21.

Unmilled rice production for calendar 2015 is now expected to reach 18.86 million tonnes, from

18.97 million tonnes in 2014. The government had pegged output at 20.08 million tonnes.

Imports of the staple food of the country’s 107 million people have already reached 750,000

tonnes and the lower production raises the chance that more imports will have to be ordered.

The country normally imports rice from Southeast Asian neighbors Thailand, which is now

wracked by drought in its rice farms itself, and Vietnam.



The Philippines has been importing rice just as the government is preparing for the threat of

drought posed by an El Nino weather pattern this year.

The official National Food Authority has been given authorization to import another 350,000

tonnes.

The Philippines is allowing private traders to import over 800,000 tonnes of rice.

Private sources believe unofficial imports, a euphemism for smuggling, would bring in another

500,000 tonnes due to high internal prices.

The U.S. agricultural attaché in Manila believes imports will be around 1.8 million tonnes in

2015/16 (July/June).

The SACD has forecast total rice imports by the Philippines to eventually hit 2.5 to 2.7 million

tonnes from 1.8 million tonnes imported in 2014.

The reason for the SACD number is the high probability a combination of typhoons or drought in

the Philippines will inflict further damage on rice production in the second half of the year and

force rice imports ranging from a minimum of 100,000 to as high as 500,000 tonnes.

Philippine rice production forecasts have been trimmed by the government.

The Philippines’ main rice crop is harvested in the last quarter of the year, but storms have struck

the past three years during that period.

Typhoon Bopha hit in 2012, the record breaking typhoon Haiyan came into Leyte in 2013 and a

total of five typhoons and storms struck from early December 2014 to the middle of January

2015.

PHILIPPINES BUYS MORE MEAL, THAIS BOOK SOYBEANS IN QUIET REGIONAL MARKET By Cristina Pastor, SACD Staffer

The Philippines purchased a modest cargo of soybean cake and meal while Thailand ordered a

small order of U.S. soybeans in an otherwise subdued Southeast Asian market for U.S. grains

and oilseeds in the week ending August 13.

Manila bought a combined 56,400 tonnes of soybean cake and meal.

The purchases were divided into 10,400 tonnes of meal in the 2014/15 season ending on

September 30 and 46,000 tonnes of the material in the 2015/16 season which starts on October 1.

The country is also awaiting a shipment of 48,100 tonnes of meal from the U.S. The Philippines

is the biggest buyer of meal from the U.S. in Southeast Asia as the protein-rich material is used

extensively in its poultry industry.



Its accumulated imports of meal as of August 13 had reached 1.32 million tonnes, up 9.03

percent from the 1.211 million imported by this time a year ago.

Last week, the Philippines bought a combined 102,000 tonnes of soybean cake and meal.

The purchase was divided into 22,000 tonnes for the 2014/15 season ending on September 30,

and 80,000 tonnes of the material for the 2015/16 season.

The Philippines did not buy any wheat from the U.S. in the week ending August 13. Last week, it

purchased bought 110,000 tonnes of U.S. wheat.

Wheat imports by the Philippines are expected to increase significantly in the coming years as

steady economic growth and an expanding, increasingly affluent middle class consume more

wheat products.

The Philippines’ accumulated imports of wheat from the U.S. near the end of the 2014/15 season

on May 28 reached 2.318 million tonnes, up 15.18 percent from 2.013 million tonnes imported

by this time last year.

The Philippines does not grow wheat and must import all supplies of the grain.

The country was forecast to import over 4 million tonnes in the 2014/15 marketing year and

those imports are seen rising to 4.4 million tonnes in 2015/16.

The country is the 4th

largest U.S. wheat market globally in 2014, with sales value up 11 percent

to US$698 million. Wheat is the top U.S. agricultural export to the Philippines in 2014.

Indonesia, for its part, did not buy any U.S. soybeans this week. Jakarta bought 94,600 tonnes of

soybeans from the U.S. and is awaiting a shipment of 101,900 tonnes of soybeans last week.

Indonesia is forecast to import about 2.1 to 2.2 million tonnes of soybeans in 2014/15

(September/August), of which 1.8 million tonnes is expected to come from the United States.

As of August 13, Indonesia’s accumulated imports of U.S. soybeans in the 2014/15 season stood

at 1.813 million tonnes, down 19.91 percent from the 2.26 million tonnes imported by this time a

year ago.

The soybean season ends on August 31.

Indonesia is the biggest importer of grains and soybeans in Southeast Asia. It uses the soybeans

primarily for popular foods like tempeh and tofu.

The only other activity came from Thailand, which bought 30,000 tonnes of soybeans from the

U.S.

Accumulated imports of soybeans by Thailand from the U.S. as of August 13 stood at 513,200

tonnes, up 20.30 percent from the 426,600 tonnes it had imported by this time a year ago.



Cash wheat values for nearby delivery for buyers of U.S. wheat in Southeast Asia were largely

steady soft white, hard red winter, winter wheat and northern spring/dark northern spring wheat

on August 21, industry sources said.

U.S. soft white wheat was quoted for nearby delivery out of the U.S. Pacific Northwest was seen

at US$219 to $287 per tonne FOB (free on board) on August 21, from the $220 to $288 per

tonne seen on August 14, trading sources said.

Hard red winter wheat quotes for nearby shipment were seen at $213 to $232 per tonne FOB on

August 21, from $217 to $230 per tonne on August 14, the sources said.

Northern spring/dark northern spring wheat was quoted at $227 to $238 per tonne FOB on

August 21, from $229 to $236 per tonne on August 14, they said.

Winter wheat was quoted at $259 to $266 per tonne FOB on August 21, from $254 to $263 per

tonne seen on August 14, they added.

Shipping rates for Handymax vessels from the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) going to Southeast

Asia were flat from the previous week at $35 per tonne FOB as of August 21, shipping sources

said.

Rates for Panamax vessels from the U.S. PNW were seen at $34 per tonne FOB on August 21,

also steady from a week ago, shipping sources said.

VIETNAM, THAILAND BUY U.S. UPLAND COTTON; THAIS ORDER PIMA COTTON Vietnam booked a small order of U.S. upland cotton and their move was largely matched by

neighbors Thailand in the Southeast Asian fiber market.

Vietnam bought 9,000 running bales (RBs, 500-lbs each) of upland cotton and is awaiting a

combined shipment of 37,500 RBs.

Vietnam has become a major buyer of cotton due to its thriving textile and apparel industry.

Vietnam’s imports of U.S. upland cotton has been rising steadily.

Accumulated imports by Vietnam of U.S. upland cotton as of July 30 stood at 1.666 million RBs,

62.35 percent higher than the 1.026 million RBs it had imported by the same date last year.The

2014/15 season finished on July 31.

At the end of the 2013/14 season on July 31, 2014, Vietnam’s total accumulated imports of U.S.

upland cotton, the most widely grown and commonly used variety, stood at 1.026 million RBs,

up 28.72 percent from the 797,500 RBs imported by the end of the preceding season.



The country’s total cotton imports in 2013/14 were estimated to have hit a total of 3.17 million

(480-lb) bales, with the United States accounting for over a third of the total.

In other action, Thailand purchased 8,700 RBs of upland cotton and bought 400 RBs of pima

cotton.

Thailand is the third leading buyer of U.S. cotton in Southeast Asia.

Its accumulated imports of U.S. upland cotton as of July 30 was at 462,100 RBs, down 0.21

percent from the 463,100 RBs imported by this time last year.

But if the 3,200 RBs bound for the country last week are added to the imports for 2014/15, total

Thai cotton imports from the U.S. in 2014/15 would reach 465,300 RBs, up 0.47 percent from

the previous season.

A few weeks ago, it seemed all but certain that cotton imports by Thailand from the U.S. would

fall short of last year’s pace.

Thailand’s accumulated imports of U.S. upland cotton in 2013/14 stood at 463,100 RBs by July

31, 2014, up 16.73 percent from the 396,700 RBs it had ordered the previous season.

Indonesia, the second biggest buyer of U.S. cotton in Southeast Asia, stayed on the market’s

sidelines.

As of July 30, accumulated imports by Indonesia of U.S. upland cotton was at 905,000 RBs, up

45.07 percent from the 623,800 RBs imported by this time a year ago.

Indonesia has also surpassed the amount of U.S. upland cotton it imported in 2013/14.

The country’s accumulated imports of U.S. upland cotton reached 623,800 RBs by the end of the

2013/14 season on July 31 last year, up 43.46 percent from 434,800 RBs in 2012/13.

Brazil has overtaken the United States as the largest cotton supplier to Indonesia with a total

market share of 45 percent.

The South American country was followed by the United States and Australia with a market

share of 22 and 13 percent respectively.



SOUTHEAST ASIA SOFT COMMODITIES ROUNDUP: DAILY COCOA BEAN PRICES IN MALAYSIA RINGGIT/TONNE ON AUGUST 21, 2015 FROM MALAYSIA COCOA BOARD:

Tawau (Sabah) Raub (Pahang) Jerantut (Pahang) Kuching (Sarawak)

8/21/2015 8,600 8,300 7,300 8,600

8/14/2015 8,400 8,050 7,200 8,400

WEEKLY COFFEE PRICES FROM DAK LAK INVESTMENT EXPORT-IMPORT CORP. IN VIETNAMESE DONG/KG: August 19, 2015 Giá Inexim (VNĐ/kg) (HKB) Tại Daklak: RNL R2 5% R1 2%

37.800 - 200 + 1.000

Net

(so với R2 5%)

Tại Kho Bình Dương:

+400

August 13, 2015 Giá Inexim (VNĐ/kg) (HKB) Tại Daklak: RNL R2 5% R1 2%

37.200 - 200 + 1.000

Net

(so với R2 5%)

Tại Kho Bình Dương:

+400



NEW ZEALAND’S FONTERRA AUCTION REVERSES WEAK TREND AS PRICES MOVE UP

For the first time in weeks, Fonterra’s dairy auction on August 18 in New Zealand showed the

average price for all contracts climbed 14.8 percent to US$1,974 per tonne. World dairy prices

have stumbled to its lowest levels in over a decade.

The average weighted price of whole milk powder (WMP) jumped 19.1 percent to $1,856 per

tonne.

Skim milk powder (SMP) gained 8.5 percent to an average weighted price at $1,521 per tonne.

The next auction is set for September 1.

The twice monthly Fonterra auction in New Zealand is a global benchmark which sets the tone

for world dairy prices.

New Zealand and neighbor Australia are the leading suppliers of dairy products to countries in

Southeast Asia. (See tables below)

Another major supplier of dairy goods to the region is the United States.

NEW ZEALAND SKIM MILK POWDER EXPORTS BY COUNTRY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: QUANTITY IN METRIC TONNES AND AVERAGE PRICE IN U.S. DOLLARS FOB PER TONNE (GLOBAL TRADE ATLAS)

2012 2013 2014

Q PRICE Q PRICE Q PRICE

Malaysia 34,593 $3,472 36,106 $4,195 33,376 $4,280

Philippines 30,738 $3,229 34,958 $4,179 30,591 $4,273

Indonesia 37,413 $3,180 33,780 $4,083 26,918 $4,321

Singapore 21,269 $3,169 23,575 $3,920 29,049 $3,873

Thailand 22,545 $2,995 15,816 $4,086 20,580 $4,044



AUSTRALIA SKIM MILK POWDER EXPORTS BY COUNTRY IN S.E. ASIA IN METRIC TONNES – GLOBAL TRADE ATLAS Country 2011 2012 2013 2014

Indonesia 24,182 22,687 20,929 33,464

Malaysia 7,792 15,860 9,716 14,975

Singapore 17,192 20,267 13,370 14,338

Philippines 7,914 14,287 6,793 9,721

Thailand 9,611 13,836 8,839 8,313

AVERAGE WEEKLY NATURAL RUBBER PRICES COMPILED BY THE ASSOCIATION OF NATURAL RUBBER PRODUCING COUNTRIES (ANRPC): Average weekly natural rubber prices compiled by the ANRPC were not updated across the

board in its latest update.

The price of SMR20 rubber from Malaysia was at $139.51/100 kg or $1.3951/kg in the week

ending August 1, from $145.64/100 kg or $1.4564/kg in the week ending July 25.

The price of Thai STR20 rubber hit an average of US$146.34/100 kg or $1.4634/kg in the week

ending August 1, versus $148.11/100 kg or $1.4811/kg in the week ending July 25.

Thai RSS3 rubber was at an average of $161.46/100 kg or $1.6146/kg in the week of August 1,

from $167.45/100 kg or $1.6745/kg in the week of July 25.

The top three natural rubber producers are Southeast Asian countries Thailand, Indonesia and

Malaysia.

Rubber is used in most industries, primarily as tires in the automobile industry. The material is

also used in a variety of industrial and personal products, such as condoms.



WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SELECT COUNTRIES IN S.E. ASIA THROUGH AUGUST 28, 2015 COMPILED FROM GOVERNMENT WEATHER SERVICES: The Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG) of Indonesia (Meteorology,

Climatology and Geophysics Agency) said Sumatra should see generally clear and cloudy

conditions with some moderate rain in North Sumatra. The same conditions should prevail in

Kalimantan and Sulawesi. Papua and Java are seen as generally clear with some light to

moderate rain. These regions cover the main growing areas for palm oil, cocoa and coffee.

Indonesia is the world’s top producer of palm oil, the No. 3 producer/exporter of cocoa and one

of the top five producers of mainly robusta coffee.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa)

said in its outlook through August 28 that a storm at the extreme northern end of the country

should enhance monsoon rains but that conditions should clear for most of the upcoming week.

The main island of Luzon, the top rice growing area in the country, will get occasional rains

during the period. The Philippines is the world’s leading producer of coconut oil, and is a major

importer of rice, wheat and other food products. Farmers are tending to crops such as corn, sugar

and bananas among others.

The Thai Meteorological Department said in its 7-day forecast said isolated to heavy rain is seen

over the north and the northeast parts of the country through the early part of the week. Less rain

s likely though in the east, central and southern parts of Thailand. The Southeast Asian nation is

the world’s No. 2 exporter of sugar, which is planted in the north, northeast and central parts of

Thailand. The north and northeast region accounts for nearly 80 percent of rice grown in the

country. Thailand is the world’s top exporter of rice.

The National Hydro-Meteorological Service in Vietnam said the mainly robusta coffee

producing area around Dak Lak and nearby provinces should see light to steadier rain this week.

The northern coffee areas around Son La, which grows a large crop of arabica coffee beans, will

see cloudy weather with periods of light showers during this period. Warm weather with some

rain will be seen in the main rice growing areas in the southern part of the country. Vietnam is a

leading exporter of rice and rivals Thailand in exports of the grain, a staple food of large parts of

Asia. It is the No. 2 coffee producer in the world.

The Malaysian Meteorological Department said the 7-day outlook in the state of Sabah should

see isolated rain in the week through August 28. It said Sarawak should get isolated rain but

Selangor will see sunny weather early in the week before receiving isolated rain this week. The

state of Johor will likely get isolated showers during the period. All four areas are the leading

regions where palm plants are sown in the country, the No. 2 producer of the vegetable oil in the

world. The country is also a major producer of cocoa.



SHORT BITES: COMMODITY FUNDAMENTALS IN THE REGION INDONESIA CORN IMPORTS IN 2014/15 AND 2015/16 Corn accounts for 80 percent of Indonesian feed needs, especially in its poultry industry.

Indonesia corn imports are seen at 3.5 million tonnes in 2014/15 and 3 million tonnes in

2015/16. According to the Global Trade Atlas, some 48 percent of corn imports are from

Argentina, around 45 percent from Brazil, 5 percent from India, and 2 percent from the U.S.

VIETNAM COFFEE PRODUCTION, EXPORTS IN 2015/16 Coffee production for the 2015/16 season should hit 28.6 million bags, up around 1.8 percent

from the 2014/15 season, the USDA forecast.

Exports are forecast at 27.04 million bags or 1.62 million tonnes, up 2.3 percent, according to

estimates by the U.S. agriculture attaché in Vietnam.

INDONESIAN 2015/16 COFFEE PRODUCTION

Coffee production in Indonesia is seen rising some 24 percent to 11 million bags in 2015/16

(April/March), according to the USDA.

Of the total, some 9.3 million are robusta beans. Indonesia is expected to produce 1.7 million

bags of arabica coffee, the key ingredient for gourmet and high-end coffee.

Coffee exports are seen at 9.05 million bags in 2015/16. Coffee planted area in Indonesia

remains steady at around 1.2 million hectares.

INDONESIA SUGAR IMPORTS Raw sugar imports by Indonesia are seen increasing in 2015/16 to 3.1 million tonnes on the back

of a rising population and rising consumption by the country’s food industry.

Sugar consumption in 2014/15 is forecast at 5.5 million tonnes and it is expected to edge up to

5.55 million tonnes in 2015/16. The island of Java’s 48 sugar mills accounted for 63 percent of

Indonesian white sugar production in 2013/14.



THAILAND SUGAR EXPORTS Thai sugar exports are tipped to increase 10 percent to 8.8 million tonnes in 2015/16 because

tariff rates in the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will be cut to

nearly zero by December 31.

Thai 2015/16 sugar production is expected to increase to 11.4 million tonnes, from 11 million in

2014/15 due to an expansion in cane plantings by 32,000 hectares.

PHILIPPINE COCONUT OIL EXPORTS Coconut oil exports in 2013/14 stood at 866,000 tonnes, according to the Global Trade Atlas

(GTA). In 2014/15, they fell to 800,000 tonnes, and would stay at this level for 2015/16.

Coconut oil production was estimated at 1.48 million tonnes in 2013/14, seen slipping to 1.45

million tonnes in 2014/15 and go up slightly to 1.49 million tonnes in 2015/16. The Philippines

is the world’s top coconut producer.

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indonesia's weather bureau says el nino

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