Indonesian Palm Oil Industry Under

Future Climate Change

Prof. Dr. Edvin Aldrian,

Professor of Meteorology and Climatology BPPT

IPCC Working Group 1 Vice Chair

World Plantation Conference and Exhibition WPLACE 2017

Towards Sustainable Palm Oil Industry: Policy Coherence and Bioeconomy Perspective

Jakarta 18 – 20 October 2017

Presentation Outline

- Global challenges

- Forest Carbon Capacity in

Indonesia

- Palm Oil and Climate Change

- IPCC Reports

Global Challenges

Limit of Earth carrying capacity

Rockström, et al. 2009. Planetary boundaries:exploring the safe operating space

for humanity. Ecology and Society 14(2): 32

Population, welfare and emission

The future of the climate system (and our survival) depends on our ability to decouple future emissions from the other two factors: population and economic growth

Raupach et al. (2007, PNAS)

Ambient CO2 measurement

Trend= 2.67ppm (logarithmic)

Est Dec 2020+ 399.06 ppm

Est Dec 2020 -26%=392.63 ppm

Forest Carbon Capacity in

Indonesia

FAO-Global Resources Assessment 2005; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS,

Slide courtesy of Dr. Tania June

Tropical Americas 40 %

Tropical Asia 25 %

Tropical Africa 35 %

Period: 2000-2007

Tropical deforestation

13 million ha per year

Emission from Land Use Change

Total contribution : 1.5 Pg C y-1

Bor

neo,

Cou

rtes

y: V

ikto

r B

oehm

BMKG

Net Primary Production (NPP) and

Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE)

NPP shows the productivity of vegetated ecosystem.

NPP is the balance between CO2 absorption through photosynthesis processes (Gross photosynthesis, GPP) and release of CO2 through organ respiration (Rveg).

It is a total annual increment of the vegetation

NEE= NPP – soil respiration

It determine the change in [CO2] in the atmosphere

Slide courtesy of Dr. Tania June

BMKG

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

CO

2flu

x g

(C)

m-2

d-1

RE

Fb

Pg

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

CO

2flu

x g

(C)

m-2

d-1

RE

Fb

Pg

Ecosystem Respiration 1760 g C m-2 year-1

Net turbulent uptake 970 g C m-2 year-1

Gross photosynthesis 2730 g C m-2 year-1

CO

2 flu

x (

g (

C)

m-2

d-1

)

OCT ' 03 JAN ' 04 APR JUL OCT JAN ' 05 MAR

SFB 552 “STORMA“ Stability of Rainforest Margins in Indonesia (Elsevier 2007)

Tania June, ABdul Rauf, Dodo Gunawan (Indonesian team)

G. Gravenhorst, A.Ibrom, O. Panferov, Oltchev A.; H. Kreilein, T.Ross; U.Falk,

A.Sogachev, G.Rakibu (German team)

NEE

GPP

Slide courtesy of Dr. Tania June

Peatland drained forest, Central Kalimantan

Terrain: flat, Altitude: 30 m

Homogen, secondary forest,

drained

Canopy height = 26 m

Plant Area Index: 2.2

Peat depth = 3–5 m

2o20’41.6’’S , 114o2’11.3’’ E. Slide courtesy of Dr. Tania June

BMKG

GPP, RE dan NEE

-1

0

1

2

3

4

NEE (

gC

m-2

d-1

)a) NEE

2002

2003 2004

7

8

9

10

11

12

RE (

gC

m-2

d-1

)

b) RE

2002 2003 2004

Dec. Jun. Dec. Jun. Dec. Jun. Dec.-11

-10

-9

-8

-7

-6

Month

GPP (

gC

m-2

d-1

) c) GPP

2002

2003 2004

Year NEE

(gC m-2 y-1)

RE

(gC m-2 y-1)

GPP

(gC m-2 y-1)

2002 447 3439 -2992

2003 282 3366 -3084

2004 211 3488 -3276

Mean 314±121 3431±61 -3117±145

(Global Change Biology, 2007)

T. Hirano, M. Osaki (Japanese

team)

Suwido Limin, Tania June

(Indonesian Team)

Blocking of drainage starting in

2002. El Nino year in 2002.

Slide courtesy of Dr. Tania June

Emission Sink and source from Indonesian forest

o Emission from peatland (314 gC m-2 y-1) is one third

of the absorption or sink from natural forest (970 gC

m-2 y-1)

o Therefore we need only one third of natural forest in

Indonesia to absorp the emission from the largest

carbon source which is peatland

o Emission reduction in peatland from 447 to 221 gC

m-2 y-1 after damming shows the effectiveness of

rewetting of peatland.

o The largest source of absorption (carbon pools) in

Indonesia proves that the accusation of the large

emission contradict with the fact of large capacity of

absorption of Indonesian soil and forest.

BMKG

Palm Oil and Climate Change

Potential renewable energy (RE) untapped

Potential path to Food and Energy security

Slow down carbon emission, biofuel plants capture

atmospheric carbon, do not increase the carbon in

the atmosphere

Displace some fossil fuel with B5

Watch out for inappropriate land clearing and

peatland dryness

Need better strategy to understand future

suitability map of palm oil

Why Food and Bio-energy Together?

Biodiesel-share in total diesel consumption(in energy equivalent)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Canada

USA

EU(27)

Austra

liaArg

entina

Brazil

Mala

ysia

Philippin

es

Thailand

2009

2018

Source: FAO/OECD

Biodiesel demand Biodiesel production:

• demand strongly driven by national utilization mandates plus subsidies

• commercial viability not secured

• global biodiesel production to more than double: +127% (2009-2018)

expansion in transport fuel

rising share of diesel in transp. Fuel

• shares of BD in total transport fuel to

remain modest few important players.

BD production - current and projected

0

4

8

12

16

20

A

rgen

tina

B

razi

l

Canada

C

olo

mbia

EU

(27)

In

dia

In

dones

ia

Mal

aysi

a

Thaila

nd

US

A

billio

n lit

ers

2006-2008

2018

Source: FAO/OECD

Growth in biodiesel production(2006-08 over 2018)

0

200

400

600

800

Arg

entin

a

Bra

zil

Can

ada

Col

ombia

EU(2

7)

Indones

ia

Mal

aysi

a

Thai

land

USA

avg o

f mai

n pro

ducer

s

pe

rce

nt

Source: FAO/OECD

.Source: Peter Thoenes, 2009

Influence of Climate on Palm Oil Production Year Year

No

Production

(GT)*

Area (1000 ha)* Productivity

(ton/ha)*

SOI**

2002 1 9.370 2,790 3.36 -9.67

2003 2 10.600 3,030 3.50 -3.73

2004 3 12.380 3,320 3.73 -3.72

2005 4 14.100 3,690 3.82 -0.52

2006 5 16.070 4,110 3.91 -10.08

2007 6 17.420 4,560 3.82 1.27

2008 7 19.400 4,980 3.90 6.58

2009 8 21.000 5,370 3.91 -3.60

2010 9 22.100 6,235 3.54 15.73

2011 10 24.300 6,609 3.68 5.68

2012 11 26.900 7,150 3.76 -2.45

2013 12 28.820 7,720 3.73 5.32

2014 13 31.500 8,150 3.87 -4.50

2015 14 33.400 8,630 3.87 -16.35

2016 15 32.600 9,130 3.57 4.55

2017 16 34.912 9130 3,82 Normal SOI: Southern Oscillation Index, El Nino indicator

Trend of Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

and Indonesian Palm Oil Productivity

(ton/ha) 2002-2016

Palm Oil is susceptible to too wet and to dry climate,

then too cold and too warm climate

Palm Oil land Suitability How the future climate changes this?

Threshold for climate criteria for

Palm Oil suitability study Parameter Mnemonic Values

Limiting low temperature DV0 19 °C

Lower optimal temperature DV1 24 °C

Upper optimal temperature DV2 28 °C

Limiting high temperature DV3 36 °C

Limiting low soil moisture SM0 0.4

Lower optimal soil moisture SM1 0.6

Upper optimal soil moisture SM2 1.6

Limiting high soil moisture SM3 2

Cold stress temperature threshold TTCS 15 °C

Cold stress temperature rate THCS − 0.005 week−1

Minimum degree-day cold stress threshold DTCS 20 °C days

Degree-day cold stress rate DHCS − 0.0005 week−1

Heat stress temperature threshold TTHS 36 °C

Heat stress temperature rate THHS 0.001 week−1

Dry stress threshold SMDS 0.4

Dry stress rate HDS − 0.007 week−1

Wet stress threshold SMWS 2

Wet stress rate HWS 0.0023 week−1

Degree-day threshold PDD 1500 Source: Paterson et al.,, 2015

Present day Palm Oil suitability

Source: Paterson et al.,, 2016

Palm Oil suitability in 2050

Source: Paterson et al.,, 2016

Palm Oil suitability in 2100

Source: Paterson et al.,, 2016

Source: Paterson et al.,, 2015

Present day Palm Oil suitability

2030 Highly suitable

Suitable

Marginally suitable

Unsuitable

Source: Paterson et al.,, 2015

2070

2100

Summary of Palm Oil suitability under

future climate change for Indonesia

Scenario

Area (km2)

Unsuitable Marginal Suitable Highly Suitable

Current 332,880 6,122 7,908 1,794,493

2030 A1B CS 220,135 13,264 49,741 1,858,263

2030 A2 CS 228,807 11,479 44,639 1,856,478

2030 A1B MR 225,236 8,928 22,192 1,885,047

2030 A2 MR 235,184 8,673 19,896 1,877,649

2070 A1B CS 139,784 86,983 291,047 1,623,589

2070 A2 CS 136,723 100,502 344,104 1,560,074

2070 A1B MR 143,355 17,856 208,911 1,771,281

2070 A2 MR 136,213 21,427 252,785 1,730,978

2100 A1B CS 123,969 415,782 593,573 100,8079

2100 A2 CS 202,279 821,360 387,723 730,041

2100 A1B MR 104,583 139,274 519,600 1,377,946

2100 A2 MR 83,922 526,232 630,815 900,435 Source: Paterson et al.,, 2015

Notes on the model use

The A1B scenario portrays a balance between the use

of fossil and non-fossil resources.

the A2 describes a varied world with high population

growth but slow economic development and

technological change

Two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.053

and MIROC-H (Centre for Climate Research, Japan)

Use SRES climate scenarios of IPCC AR4. AR5 uses RCP

scenarios and AR6 will use SSP scenarios. Need to

improve the climate scenario.

The modeling is a pure climate scenarios, without land

use dynamics, desease dynamics and sosio economic

dynamics

Palm Plantation and Climate Change

no consensus on ultimate net global impact on agricultural production

global warming and changing rainfall patterns potentially beneficial in high latitude regions damaging in low latitude tropical areas

uncertainty regarding the effects of higher atmospheric CO2 concentration (carbon fertilization)

consensus: ◦ food security to be affected ◦ considerable scope to improve resilience via

adaptation ◦ until 2050: increased risk of water stress; rising

incidence of extreme weather events ◦ after 2050: significant impact on agricultural

productivity (shifts in production frontiers) and on the global food system

Palm Oil Plantation and global warming

- Land

clearing

- Biomass

Burning

BIOFUEL

VS

FOOD SECURITY

GHG emission GHG sink No GHG emission

Plant growth absorb carbon

from the atmosphere through its

respiration

IPCC Reports

IPCC Bureau

members

2015 - 2022 34 persons total

Elected in IPCC session in Dubrovnik 2015

Indonesia representative is the 2nd

in history

http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/bureaumembers.shtml

• Special report on 1.5°C (09/2018)

• Special report on ocean and cryosphere (2019)

• Special report on desertification, land degradation,

sustainable land management, food security (2019)

• TFI methodological report on greenhouse gas emission

inventories (2019)

• Main assessment report of WGs (end of 2020 –

beginning of 2021)

• Working Group I Physical Basis

• Working Group II Impact, Vulnerability, Adaptation

• Working Group III Mitigation

• IPCC Special Workshop on Cities Edmonton Canada Feb

2018

Current IPCC agenda

Conclusions

The global challange includes the threat of global carbon

cycle that cause global warming

For a clearance of an acre of forest for plantation, we

need a third of an acre of virgin forest to balance.

The maritime continent Indonesia is the highly suitable are

for Palm oil

Future climate model scenario using SRES scenarios

indicates reduction of suitable ares for palm oil in

Indonesia especially after 2070.

There is a need to improve climate modeling using soil

type dynamics, new IPCC model scenario of RCP and

SSP as well as ecological dynamics.

TERIMA KASIH

THANK YOU