Indonesia dan

G20: Peluang dan Tantangan Penguatan Peran

Indonesia di G20

pada Era Kepresidenan China

Yulius P HermawanSeminar “Penguatan Peran

Indonesia dalam G20

Tahun 2016”

Bandung, 18 Februari 2016

Alur Presentasi

Pertanyaan Isu presentasi

Apa itu G20?

Apakah G20 sudah berhasil?

Hasil KTT Antalya

Agenda Presidensi China

(and beyond)

Peluang dan Tantangan

Penguatan Peran Indonesia dan Quickwins

Bagaimana memperkuat

peran Indonesia di G20?

What is G20?

“ECONOMIC POWERHOUSE”

Small in term of number of membership

But, GIANT Club, = in term of members’ economic power, the

represented population, and the ultimate objectives. Together the 20 members represent around

90 percent of global gross national product, 80 per cent of world trade (including EU intra-trade) and two-thirds of the world’s population

Its mandate is: to contribute to the strengthening of the

international financial architecture and to provide opportunities for dialogue on

national policies, international cooperation and international financial institutions through which the G20 would help to support growth and development across the globe. (Source: the G20 website: www.g20.org).

Gra

phic

of G

DP o

f th

e 2

0

nati

on

s

Source: http://blogs.reuters.com/macroscope/2009/09/22/graphic-gdp-of-the-G20-nations

G20 sbg Crisis Committee

Pembentukan G20 – 1999:

Krisis finansial Asia

Tanggung jawab utama:

Menangani krisis (jkpendek)

Membangun strukturekonomi global yang tahanterhadap krisis di masa y.a.d. (jk menengah dan panjang)

Upgrading G20 2008:

Krisis finansial AS

(KTT Washington)

Akar krisis?

Cara menangani krisis? Nasional? Institusi-internasional?KrisisYunani dan

Eurozone

G20 sbg Steering Committee

G20

IMF

Bank Dunia

FSF/ FSB

OECD

BCBS

IEA

FAOMDBs/RDBs

ILO……

……

UN

Standard setting

agencies

Apakah G20 sudah berhasil

menjalankan mandatnya?

BELUM …. In Progress….

Perekonomian global

belum pulih dari krisis

finansial 2008

Muncul krisisYunani

Perang mata uang.

Perlambatan pertumbuhan

perekonomian global

Koordinasi antar

Perekonomian Global

(lama dan baru) meningkat

…..

Tantangan

http://assets.bwbx.io/images/iKMrNaTatoiE/v2/-1x-1.jpg

The Falls

http://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/EmergingMarketCurrencies.png

Tantangan

http://www.rollingalpha.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Emerging-Mkt-Currencies.jpg

The vulnerables

https://marketrealist.imgix.net/uploads/2015/08/Asia-21-Aug.png?w=660&fit=max&auto=format

Why G20 cannot meet expectations?

Internal G20 Global challenges

Broad agenda, lack of

focus…

Lack of compliance with

commitment …

The Bigger Powers talk

more then the smaller

others

Mission Impossible: the

economic problems are

too complex to solve

overnight;

The challenges are too

difficult

Power talks(2010, 2010, 2015, …)

http://i0.wp.com/img.chinasmack.com/www/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/China-Rise-Through-Western-Political-Cartoons-20.jpg

Currency wars

http://www.toonpool.com/user/1017/files/g20_currency_wars_1044245.jpg

Economic Powerhouse = not focused:?

Perkembangan Agenda dan Isu (1999-2007)

Economic Powerhouse Plus (SSB Inclusive):

Perkembangan Agenda dan Isu (2008-2015)

Hasil KTT Antalya

Dokumen Utama: Dokumen Annex

G20 Leaders’ Communique:

27 points;

7 halaman utama

Agreed Documents

• 23 documents incl. Antalya Action Plan

Ministerial statements

9 documents (FM&CB Gov; Agriculture, Labour&Employment, Joint Finance, CBG and Employment, Tourism, Energy, Trade)

Working Group Documents

4 Working Groups + GPFI + Climate Finance Study Group

Supporting documents

54 doc

• IMF

• OECD

More Ambitious Commitments

(at Antalya Summit)

“We will develop an action plan in 2016 to

further align our work with the 2030 Agenda”

G20 di bawah Presidensi China

• Towards an Innovative, Invigorated, Interconnected and Inclusive World Economy

Tema

Key Agenda

MORE EFFECTIVE AND

EFFICIENT GLOBAL

ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL

GOVERNANCE

ROBUST

INTERNATIONAL TRADE

AND INVESTMENT

INCLUSIVE AND

INTERCONNECTED

DEVELOPMENT

BREAKING A NEW PATH

FOR GROWTH

1. Maintaining the Momentum of World Economic

Recovery,;

2. Lifting Mid-to-Long Term Growth Potential,

1. Improving IFA to meet future challenges

2. continuing financial sector reforms

3. developing green finance

4. Improving international tax regime

5. Implementing consensus on Anti-Corruption

1. Reinforcing trade and investment cooperation mechanism,

2. supporting the multilateral trade system,

3. promoting global trade growth,

4. promoting inclusive and integrated global value chains,

5. enhancing cooperation and coordination on global

investment policy

1. Implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development,

2. Optimizing G20 Development Cooperation Agenda,

3. Building infrastructure and connectivity,

4. promoting accessible, affordable and sustainable energy supply,

5. Increasing employment, improving food security and nutrition,

6. Mobilizing climate finance, eradicating poverty,

7. supporting industrialization in Africa and Other Developing countries.

Komitmen Indonesia (2014-2015)

Komitmen Brisbane -

Antalya Kata kunci

Improve infrastructure investment perspective by establishing infrastructure body and PPP center

Promote SMEs through fiscal and monetary policy supporting SMEs to get financial access easier

Boost foreign investment by reducing administrative burden for foreign entities to establish a business in Indonesia

Improve job matching by encouraging the private sector to provide training for those seeking jobs through tax incentives

Address "behind the border" issues by implementing the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement

Investasi Infrastruktur

UMKM

Investasi Asing dipermudah

Insentif di ketenagakerjaan

Fasilitasi Perdagangan

Identifikasi Peluang dan Tantangan

Indonesia

Tantangan

Eksternal

Tantangan

Internal

Perlambatan

pertumbuhan

ekonomi dunia

Struktur ekonomi

Indonesia

(Instabilitas)

keuangan global

Kepastian hukum,

termasuk regulasi

Interdependensi

dan vulnerabilitas

Proses politik

dalam pemenuhan

komitmen

Golden Opportunity to be in the ‘elite club”

bisa duduk satu meja dengan negara-negara maju dan emerging economies

Belajar dari negara maju dan emerging economies

Peluang investasi

Bantuan dari negara maju dan emerging economies

Membangun TOTAL DIPLOMASI

EKONOMI di G20

Ketenagakerjaan

KemenPPN/Bappena

s

ESDM

OJK KPK

KemenPertanian

Bank Indonesia

Kemenkeu

RI

Kemenlu RI

KemenkoBidang

Perekonomian

KemenPerdagang

an

Penguatan Peran Indonesia?

Proses G20 Agenda Indonesia:

Bergerak sangat cepat

Prioritas Agenda G20

semakin meluas

Bagaimana kita dapatmengikuti “beat” proses G20?

Bagaimana kita bisamenguasai seluruh agenda? Dan menjaga kedalamanagenda utama?

Bagaimana Indonesia dapatmembentuk agenda G20 yang sejalan dengankepentingan nasional.

Quickwins: Bagaimana peran Indonesia di forum prestisius dapat segera dirasakan oleh

masyarakat Indonesia?

Standar pelayanan publik yang tidak rumit

Terciptanya lapangan pekerjaan yang berkualitas

Stabilitas harga – tercukupinya pasokan kebutuhanprimer

Akses energi merata dengan harga terjangkau

Infrastruktur transportasi dan jalan yang memadai

Silakan tulis your wish di sini …………..

Quickwins:

Bagaimana peran Indonesia di forum prestisius

dapat segera dirasakan oleh masyarakat Indonesia?

http://media.viva.co.id/thumbs2/2012/01/20/140850_aksi-para-pelajar-di-lebak--banten--meniti-jembatan_663_382.JPG

Bagaimana mekanisme akuntabilitas G20 baik di tingnasional

Bagaimana G20 mencerminkan kepentingan rakyat?

Hatur

Nuhun