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  • Individual

    Preparedness and

    Response to Chemical, Radiological, Nuclear, and Biological Terrorist Attacks

    Lynn E. Davis, Tom LaTourrette David E. Mosher, Lois M. Davis, David R. Howell

    Supported by the

    Alfred P. Sloan Foundation

    R

    Public Safety and Justice

  • The research described in this report was sponsored by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation under Grant No. 2002-10-2. This research was conducted within RANDs Public Safety and Justice program.

    Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

    Individual preparedness and response to terrorism : chemical, radiological, nuclear, and biological attacks / Lynn E. Davis ... [et al.].

    p. cm.MR-1731.

    ISBN 0-8330-3473-1 (Paperback)

    1. Weapons of mass destructionSafety measures. 2. Nuclear terrorismSafety

    measures. 3. BioterrorismSafety measures. 4. Chemical terrorismSafety measures. 5. Survival skills. I. Davis, Lynn E. (Lynn Etheridge), 1943

    U793.I53 2003 613.6'9dc22

    2003016656

    RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND is a registered trademark. RANDs publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors.

    Copyright 2003 RAND

    All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND.

    Published 2003 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138

    1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516

    RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact

    Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: order@rand.org

  • PREFACE

    This report presents an individuals strategy for preparing for, and responding to, terrorist attacks involving chemical, radiological, nuclear, and biological weapons. The objective is to provide simple and clear guidance for individuals to help them protect themselves in the event of an actual terrorist attack, which may involve extremely hazardous and unfamiliar conditions. Steps individuals are now taking or might take to avoid such attacks are not considered in this report.

    In fall 2002, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation asked RAND to conduct this study in an effort to develop guidance for individuals that would complement terrorism preparedness efforts at the local and national government levels. The result is an empirically based strategy that individuals can adopt and implement on their own.

    Beyond individuals, government agencies and nongovernmental organizations charged with emergency preparedness, response, and management are encouraged to integrate this material into their plans, training, education, and public awareness campaigns. In addition, the report outlines the important roles that government and businesses play in enabling some of the individuals actions.

    The reference card included at the back of the report encapsulates the key recommendations in the individuals preparedness and response strategy and can be removed for display in a prominent place. This strategy is also available in the form of a quick guide. See Individual Preparedness and Response to Chemi-cal, Radiological, Nuclear, and Biological Terrorist Attacks: A Quick Guide, Santa Monica Calif.: RAND, MR-1731/1, 2003.

    This study was conducted within RANDs Public Safety and Justice program. RAND Public Safety and Justice conducts research and analysis that helps inform policymakers and communities in the areas of public safety, including law enforcement, terrorism preparedness, immigration, emergency response and management, and natural disasters; criminal justice, including sentencing

    iii

  • iv Individual Preparedness and Response to Unconventional Terrorist Attacks

    and corrections policy, firearms, and community violence; and drug policy, which focuses on problems related to illegal drugs and substance abuse.

    Inquiries about RAND Public Safety and Justice may be directed to

    Jack Riley

    RAND Public Safety and Justice

    1700 Main Street

    Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138

    310-393-0411

    www.rand.org/psj

  • CONTENTS

    Preface .................................................. iii

    Figures .................................................. ix

    Tables................................................... xi

    Summary ................................................ xiii

    Acknowledgments.......................................... xxv

    Acronyms ................................................ xxvii

    Chapter One

    INTRODUCTION ....................................... 1

    Study Motivation and Objective............................. 1

    Study Approach ........................................ 2

    Study Scope ........................................... 3

    Organization of This Document ............................. 4

    Chapter Two

    SCENARIO APPROACH TO DEVELOPING AN INDIVIDUALS

    STRATEGY ............................................ 7

    Step 1: Develop Terrorist Attack Scenarios..................... 8

    Rationale for a Scenario-Driven Approach ................... 8

    Scenario Design Criteria ................................ 8

    Scenario Descriptions .................................. 10

    Step 2: Define Individual Needs ............................ 13

    Step 3: Identify Potential Actions ........................... 15

    Step 4: Evaluate Potential Actions ........................... 16

    Step 5: Develop an Individuals Strategy ...................... 18

    Chapter Three

    AN INDIVIDUALS STRATEGY .............................. 21

    Chemical Attack ........................................ 21

    Attack Characteristics .................................. 21

    v

  • vi Individual Preparedness and Response to Unconventional Terrorist Attacks

    Response Strategy: Chemical Attack ....................... 22

    Understand Requirements of Individual Response

    Regulate Retail Equipment Marketed for Terrorism

    Recommended Actions ................................. 23

    Actions Not Recommended .............................. 28

    Radiological Attack ...................................... 30

    Attack Characteristics .................................. 30

    Response Strategy: Radiological Attack ..................... 31

    Recommended Actions ................................. 32

    Actions Not Recommended .............................. 35

    Nuclear Attack ......................................... 35

    Attack Characteristics .................................. 35

    Response Strategy: Nuclear Attack ......................... 36

    Recommended Actions ................................. 37

    Biological Attacks ....................................... 42

    Characteristics........................................ 42

    Response Strategy: Biological Attack ....................... 45

    Recommended Actions ................................. 46

    Actions Not Recommended .............................. 50

    Priorities for Response Actions ............................. 51

    Preparatory Actions...................................... 52

    Actions ........................................... 52

    Gather Information and Develop Plans in Advance ............. 54

    Augment General Emergency Preparations ................... 55

    Enhance Protection Against Biological Attack ................. 56

    Enabling Actions by Government and Businesses ................ 57

    Inform Individuals About Official Terrorism Response Plans ...... 58

    Design Education and Training Programs .................... 59

    Implement Detection and Warning Systems .................. 59

    Response.......................................... 61

    Chapter Four

    CONCLUSIONS......................................... 63

    Our Recommended Individuals Strategy ...................... 63

    Comparison with Current Terrorism Guidelines ................. 67

    How Can Our Approach Be Used in The Future?................. 69

    Appendix

    A. CATASTROPHIC TERRORISM SCENARIOS .................... 71

    B. EMERGENCY GUIDELINES ................................ 125

    C. FOCUS GROUP METHODS AND RESULTS .................... 143

  • Contents vii

    D. A REVIEW OF THE RISK-PERCEPTION AND RISK-

    COMMUNICATION LITERATURE ........................... 147

    Bibliography .............................................. 153

  • FIGURES

    2.1. Overview of Approach ................................. 7

    3.1. Blast Zone and Radioactive Fallout Contours for a One-

    Kiloton and a Ten-Kiloton Nuclear Explosion ................ 39

    A.1. Casualty Contours of Aerosolized Sarin over a Four-Hour

    Period............................................. 74

    A.2. Timeline of Sarin Scenario.............................. 76

    A.3. Timeline of Hydrogen Cyanide Scenario ................... 80

    A.4. Hydrogen Cyanide Concentration Over Time ................ 81

    A.5. The Initial Hazard of Americium 241 ...................... 89

    A.6. Long-Term Contamination of Cesium 137 and

    Americium 241 ...................................... 91

    A.7. Timeline of Dirty Bomb Scenario ......................... 92

    A.8. One Kiloton Prompt Blast EffectsOverpressure Contours

    (A), Radiation Dose Contours (B), Burn Contours (C), and

    Local Fallout 24-Ho

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