INDICATORS OF POLITICAL SUPPORT AND STRESS:

AN EXAMINATION OF

EASTON'S SYSTEMS THEORY

by

KENNETH EDWARD McVICAR B.A., U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1967

A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF

THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF

MASTER OF ARTS

i n the Department

of

P o l i t i c a l Science

We accept t h i s t h e s i s as conforming t o the

req u i r e d standard

THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA August, 1969

In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t of the r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r

an advanced degree a t the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, I a g r e e t h a t

the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e and Study.

I f u r t h e r a g r e e t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e c o p y i n g of t h i s t h e s i s

f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be g r a n t e d by the Head o f my Department o r

by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . I t i s u n d e r s t o o d t h a t c o p y i n g o r p u b l i c a t i o n

of t h i s thes.is f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l not be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t my

w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n .

Department

The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada

ABSTRACT

Thi s study i n v e s t i g a t e s David Eastern's concept of p o l i t i c a l support

i n a t h r e e - f o l d a n a l y s i s . The purpose of t h i s e x p l o r a t o r y research i s to

construct l i n k s between p o l i t i c a l support and e m p i r i c a l behavior. Drawing

on a wide range of l i t e r a t u r e , the author presents i n v e n t o r i e s of i n d i c a ­

t o r s i n order to emphasize the areas of p o l i t i c a l behavior from which

e m p i r i c a l content f o r p o l i t i c a l support might be drawn.

The f i r s t p o r t i o n of t h i s a n a l y s i s deals w i t h p o l i t i c a l support i n

the context of Easton's systems approach. Examining p o s s i b l e dependent

v a r i a b l e s , the author suggests that system p e r s i s t e n c e and system change

are of questionable u t i l i t y . The i n v e s t i g a t o r chooses s t r e s s as the depend­

ent v a r i a b l e , and re d e f i n e s i t i n terms of the objects of support: the

a u t h o r i t i e s , the regime, and the p o l i t i c a l community.

The second part of the study examines p o l i t i c a l support as the sum­

mary independent v a r i a b l e . Support i s d i v i d e d i n t o two sub-categories--

covert and overt support--which are he l d to be d i f f e r e n t , independently-

v a r y i n g sets of behavior. Three a n a l y t i c a l dimensions--size, c o n c e n t r a t i o n ,

and i n t e n s i t y - - a r e assigned to both covert and overt support. The author

suggests t h a t , w h i l e these assigned p r o p e r t i e s are crude, they have u t i l i t y

i n e m p i r i c a l l y d e f i n i n g support.

The t h i r d part of t h i s research presents i n v e n t o r i e s of i n d i c a t o r s

f o r covert and overt support, f o l l o w i n g the framework provided by the three

a n a l y t i c a l p r o p e r t i e s . Since no data are presented, the author suggests that

conclusions cannot be drawn regarding the strength of the r e l a t i o n s h i p be­

tween the i n d i c a t o r s and the support"dimensions. The researcher a l s o o f f e r s

I l l .

some suggestions regarding the linkages between covert and overt support.

Concluding the a n a l y s i s , the author i n v e s t i g a t e s simple, i l l u s t r a ­

t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p s between covert support, overt support, and s t r e s s . He

warns t h a t some spurious r e l a t i o n s h i p s may e x i s t , given the crude nature

of the present framework. The author f i n d s that the present scheme seems

l o g i c a l l y u s e f u l , but t h a t estimates of i t s t r u e value must await data c o l ­

l e c t i o n and a n a l y s i s . He concludes that the study represents a p a r t i a l

a n a l y s i s of Easton's t o t a l systems model, and that more research i s neces­

sary to o p e r a t i o n a l i z e t h i s model i n i t s e n t i r e t y .

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I t i s true to say that t h i s study d i d not emerge i n i s o l a t i o n . Much

argument and d i s c u s s i o n w i t h a large number of people intervened between my

i n i t i a l examination of the l i t e r a t u r e and the research presented i n these

pages. I t i s not p o s s i b l e to thank a l l of them here.

I am g r a t e f u l to my office-mate, John P. Lobsinger, f o r h i s i n s i g h t ­

f u l comments and e x t r a o r d i n a r y patience throughout t h i s research. My thanks

a l s o go to Professor Mark W. Zacher and B a r r i e G. McMaster, who made valuable

comments on my grasp of systems a n a l y s i s . I am a l s o g r a t e f u l to W i l l i a m B.

Moul, whose conceptual c l a r i t y was of great a s s i s t a n c e to me.

P a r t i c u l a r thanks go t o Professor Mike A. Wallace and Professor Ole

R. H o l s t i , whose e f f o r t s t o keep me i n touch w i t h the data i n troublesome

areas proved i n v a l u a b l e .

I owe my greatest debt to Professor K a l e v i J . H o l s t i of the Univer­

s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia. H i s patience w i t h my use of the e n g l i s h language

and h i s i n c i s i v e comments at c r i t i c a l p o i n t s gave the i n s p i r a t i o n necessary

to begin and complete t h i s t h e s i s .

I wish to thank Miss Donna McClary f o r t y p i n g t h i s research. Her

patience and understanding throughout i t s various stages were beyond measure.

And f i n a l l y I wish to express my g r a t i t u d e to my parents, who knew they had

a son but who were not sure where he was most of the time.

Any e r r o r s of omission or commission are, of course, my own.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER PAGE

I . EASTON'S SYSTEMS THEORY: CRITIQUE AND REFORMULATION 1

Purposes of t h i s Study 2

The Systems Approach 5

The Dependent V a r i a b l e s : C r i t i q u e and Reformulation 7

The Environment 13

The Independent V a r i a b l e : P o l i t i c a l Support 15

I I . THE DIMENSIONS OF SUPPORT 20

Assumptions of the Study 20

Siz e 22

Concentration 23

I n t e n s i t y 24

D i r e c t i o n 26

I n d i c a t o r s 28

Measurement Problems 30

I I I . COVERT SUPPORT 32

R e l a t i o n s h i p s between Covert and Overt Support 32

Size and Concentration of Support .. 34

P o s i t i v e and Negative Covert Support: T h e i r Connection w i t h I n t e n s i t y 44

IV. OVERT SUPPORT 54

I n i t i a l Assumptions 54

v i

CHAPTER PAGE

IV. OVERT SUPPORT (Continued)

Conventional versus Unconventional Behavior:

A Point of Departure 55

E l e c t o r a l Behavior and Support 62

Support S i z e and Stress 66

Support Concentration 67

Support I n t e n s i t y 74

Summary and Negative Support 82

V. CONCLUSIONS 88

Covert Support and Stress 88

Overt Support and Stress 91

Covert and Overt Support: Their Combined E f f e c t on Stress 95

Summary and C r i t i q u e 100

BIBLIOGRAPHY 104

APPENDIX I : DEFINITIONS OF INDICATORS OF OBJECT 116 CHANGE

APPENDIX I I : CODING CRITERIA FOR PARTY AND PARTY SYSTEM SUPPORT 117

APPENDIX I I I : COVERT SUPPORT: INDICATORS AND (a) SELECTED AUTHORS 119

APPENDIX I I I : OVERT SUPPORT: INDICATORS AND (b) SELECTED AUTHORS 120

LIST OF TABLES

TABLE PAGE

1:1 Str e s s as a Summary V a r i a b l e 12

2:1 General C l a s s i f i c a t i o n of Support 27 j

4:1 Supportive and Non-Supportive Behaviors 56

4:2 Negative Support Behaviors 83

5:1 Simple Permutations of Covert Support Dimensions 88

5:2 I n d i c a t o r s of Object Change and the P o s s i b l e Extent of Change 93

5:3 Two Permutations of Covert and Overt Support 95

LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE PAGE

1:1 Support and the P o l i t i c a l System 16

2:1 R e l a t i o n s h i p of I n d i c a t o r s to Support Dimensions 30

CHAPTER I

EASTON'S SYSTEMS THEORY: CRITIQUE AND REFORMULATION

Most attempts to construct t h e o r i e s u t i l i z i n g a macro-view of

p o l i t i c a l l i f e , h a v e met w i t h mixed success. They have been h i g h l y

s u c c e s s f u l i n o b t a i n i n g acceptance f o r the language they employ to re­

present r e l a t i o n s h i p s . However, apart from being evaluated i n terms of

how wid e l y or how o f t e n these t h e o r i e s are used, they should be judged

by two other c r i t e r i a : t h e i r success i n a p p l i c a t i o n , and t h e i r success

as t h e o r i e s i n and of themselves. Using the f i r s t c r i t e r i o n , a pe r u s a l

of the l i t e r a t u r e would show us that the c e n t r a l n o t i o n of one such theory

— systems t h e o r y - i s widely employed as an o r g a n i z i n g device and i s em­

ployed badly (J.S. Goodman, 1965, pp. 257-268; P. N e t t l , 1966, pp. 304-

338). While the c e n t r a l n o t i o n of system i s general enough to in c l u d e

most p o l i t i c a l phenomena, the t h e o r e t i c a l advantage obtained i s most o f t e n

outweighed by the d i f f i c u l t y of s p e c i f y i n g the content and the dimensions

of the v a r i a b l e s . Using the second c r i t e r i o n , we f i n d that these t h e o r i e s

do not succeed as t h e o r i e s - - p a r t l y because they a b s t r a c t from the r e a l

world and p a r t l y because they are attempts to come to g r i p s w i t h 'over­

a r c h i n g ' concepts w i t h i n the d i s c i p l i n e (C.A. Mc C l e l l a n d , 1961, p. 27 and

p. 33 esp.). The most common e r r o r i s a f a i l u r e to construct v a r i a b l e s

* Owing t o the large body of l i t e r a t u r e covered, t h i s t h e s i s diverges from the usu a l footnote s t y l e . Separated by brackets from the main t e x t , a reference i s stat e d as f o l l o w s : author, date of p u b l i c a t i o n . P agination i s added i n the case of a r t i c l e s or quotations; reference to s p e c i f i c chapters can a l s o be i n c l u d e d . W i t h i n the d i s c i p l i n e , t h i s s t y l e f i n d s i t s most ex­t e n s i v e use i n the J o u r n a l of C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n and i n b i b l i o g r a p h i c a l essays.

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and to l i n k these v a r i a b l e s together. T e s t i n g the claims made f o r the

t h e o r i e s i s t h e r e f o r e d i f f i c u l t and the lack of a c l e a r l y defined set of

v a r i a b l e s renders cumulative research d o u b t f u l . The most exhaustive s o l u ­

t i o n f o r these problems would i n v o l v e concentrated e f f o r t s on a research

chain composed of t h e o r i z i n g , i n d i c a t o r c o n s t r u c t i o n , data gathering, and

feedback of data-based observations to the theory. Such a task i s monu­

mental i n scope f o r one a n a l y s t w i t h i n the confines of a s i n g l e piece of

research. As a r e s u l t , our present e f f o r t s are much more modest. We s h a l l

attempt to present a r e f o r m u l a t i o n of the c r u c i a l v a r i a b l e s w i t h i n one

area of one p a r t i c u l a r theory.

Purposes of t h i s Study. This study deals w i t h the v a r i a b l e of p o l i t i c a l

support, using the germinal p r e s e n t a t i o n found i n David Easton's book A

Systems A n a l y s i s of P o l i t i c a l L i f e (1965, (b) ) as i t s s t a r t i n g p o i n t . The

a n a l y s i s developed here i s e s s e n t i a l l y t h r e e - f o l d , having a t h e o r e t i c a l and

an o p e r a t i o n a l o r i e n t a t i o n as w e l l as an i l l u s t r a t i v e purpose (A. Kaplan,

1964, p. 153). The t h e o r e t i c a l a n a l y s i s takes up the m a j o r i t y of t h i s chap­

t e r . I t i n v o l v e s an examination of the systems approach to p o l i t i c a l be­

h a v i o r , an examination of the place of p o l i t i c a l support w i t h i n t h i s approach,

and a r e d e f i n i t i o n of s t r e s s , t h e dependent v a r i a b l e used i n t h i s study. The

o p e r a t i o n a l a n a l y s i s d e r i v e s l a r g e l y from the need to l i n k theory to data,

both w i t h i n the systems framework i n general and w i t h i n the concept of

p o l i t i c a l support i n p a r t i c u l a r . Part of t h i s a n a l y s i s i n v o l v e s the exposi-

t i o n of p o s s i b l e dimensions of the independent v a r i a b l e , p o l i t i c a l support.

* 'Dimension' i s defined to be a measurable property which can be a t t r i b u t e d to a concept. The distance between the maximum and minimum amounts of a property i s defined as the range of v a r i a t i o n .

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The second p o r t i o n of the o p e r a t i o n a l a n a l y s i s i n v o l v e s the c o n s t r u c t i o n

of i n v e n t o r i e s of i n d i c a t o r s f o r each of the dimensions to be assigned.

Chapter I I deals w i t h the question of the dimensions of p o l i t i c a l support,

w h i l e Chapters I I I and IV deal l a r g e l y w i t h the c o n s t r u c t i o n of i n d i c a t o r s .

While perhaps l i m i t e d from a rigorous a n a l y t i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e , the construc­

t i o n of i n v e n t o r i e s of i n d i c a t o r s i s w e l l s u i t e d to our t h i r d purpose which

i s to view support from a number of vantage p o i n t s . For example, we are

i n t e r e s t e d i n 'who' the supporters are and i n the concept of the 'relevant

supporters' (D. Easton, 1965, (b), p. 154 esp.). I n t h i s way, s e v e r a l sets

of i n d i c a t o r s can be developed, conceptual and methodological d i f f i c u l t i e s

can be discussed, and some approaches to the subject-matter can be pointed

out. The study thus attempts to connect an i n t e g r a l part of a macro-theory

of p o l i t i c s to e m p i r i c a l r e f e r e n t s . Viewed i n a d i f f e r e n t way, the object

i s t o b u i l d l o w e r - l e v e l theory i n t o the macro-model.

U t i l i t y of the Approach. The question a r i s e s : I s such an undertaking

u s e f u l ? Our contention i s that i t i s u s e f u l . We noted that macro-theories

of p o l i t i c s are s u p e r f i c i a l l y u s e f u l as 'overarching concepts', but we a l s o

noted the need to t e s t the claims made fo r a theory such as systems a n a l y s i s .

As A. Kaplan notes:

Whether a concept i s u s e f u l depends upon the use we want to put i t t o ; but there i s always the a d d i t i o n a l question whether things so con­c e p t u a l i z e d w i l l lend themselves to that use. And t h i s i s the s c i e n t i f i c question (1964,p.51).

I t i s our contention that Easton 1s concepts are not what they pretend to be:

v a r i a b l e s . Hence our concern w i t h the r e d e f i n i t i o n of s t r e s s and w i t h the

i n s t i t u t i o n of.dimensions f o r support as the independent v a r i a b l e . This

endeavor seems to be j u s t i f i e d by a statement made by Easton:

I t (the need f o r q u a n t i f i c a t i o n ) leads to the need to c l a r i f y the various dimensions of sup­port which would have to be taken i n t o account i f any s a t i s f a c t o r y minimal measure at a l l i s to be a t t a i n e d (1965, (b), p. 162; my emphasis).

I n the course of t h i s endeavor, we are i n d i r e c t l y and i m p r e c i s e l y t e s t i n g

the u t i l i t y of Easton*s macro-concepts. T e s t i n g i s i n d i r e c t because i n ­

d i c a t o r s simply point to segments of data which e m p i r i c a l l y 'represent'the

concept being i n v e s t i g a t e d . As P.F. L a z a r f e l d notes:

... each i n d i c a t o r has not an absolute but only a p r o b a b i l i s t i c r e l a t i o n to our under­l y i n g concept ... (1966, p. 189).

Te s t i n g i s imprecise because we cannot assume that a l l the i n d i c a t o r s pre­

sented i n the f o l l o w i n g chapters are v a l i d i n a l l contexts or on a l l occa­

s i o n s . Furthermore, t h i s paper does not in c l u d e data a n a l y s i s . I t cannot

come t o conclusions regarding p r e c i s e e m p i r i c a l points r e l a t i n g the l e v e l

of support to the l e v e l of s t r e s s . I t does, however, attempt to reformulate

concepts as v a r i a b l e s and i t does endeavor to present i n d i c a t o r s of whatever

value-ranges these v a r i a b l e s might have. In so d o i n g , t h i s e x p l o r a t o r y study

attempts to l a y the groundwork necessary f o r the measurement of one segment

of Easton 1s theory. The v a l i d i t y of t h i s e n t e r p r i z e i s enhanced by the f a c t

that Easton puts t h i s problem aside. Noting the importance of measurement,

he s t a t e s :

This does not mean that I am c a l l e d upon, i n a t h e o r e t i c a l a n a l y s i s such as t h i s , to consider the problems i n v o l v e d i n the measurement of sup­port as an e m p i r i c a l phenomenon. The task of r e f i n i n g concepts f o r d i r e c t e m p i r i c a l a p p l i c a ­t i o n — o p e r a t i o n a l i z i n g t h e m — i s a v i t a l yet separate enterprize,one that f a l l s o utside the macroscopic l e v e l of a n a l y s i s under way here (1965, (b), pp. 161-162).

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This problem, however, i s a c e n t r a l concern i n t h i s a n a l y s i s . Not only

are we t r y i n g to de f i n e and connect the concept of p o l i t i c a l support to

"acceptable c r i t e r i a of r e a l i t y " (A. Rapoport, 1965, p. 23), but we are

als o t r y i n g to o u t l i n e problems of measurement. We have o u t l i n e d the

purposes of t h i s paper, as w e l l as a r a t i o n a l e f o r i t . We can now tu r n

to our f i r s t task: an examination of the systems approach to p o l i t i c s .

The Systems Approach. General Systems Theory, which derives from work

i n b i o l o g y (L. von B e r t a l a n f f y , 1950) and cyb e r n e t i c s (W.R. Ashby, 1961),

forms the i n t e l l e c t u a l forebearer of Easton's model of p o l i t i c a l l i f e .

W r i t i n g i n t h i s General Systems t r a d i t i o n , A.D. H a l l and R. E. Fagen pro­

pose the f o l l o w i n g d e f i n i t i o n :

A system i s a set of objects together w i t h r e l a t i o n s h i p s between the objects and t h e i r a t t r i b u t e s (1956, p. 18; emphasis i n o r i g i n a l ) .

These authors f u r t h e r s p e c i f y that the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between the objects

of a system c o n s t i t u t e .the most important and u s e f u l focus f o r the systems

approach (A.D. H a l l and R.E. Fagen, 1956, p. 18). These two b a s i c points

can be compared w i t h p r o p o s i t i o n s i n Easton's work (D. Easton, 1953; 1957;

1964 (a); 1965 (b) ).

The b a s i c objects i n Easton's theory are three i n number: the

a u t h o r i t i e s , the regime, and the p o l i t i c a l community. The a u t h o r i t i e s are

the occupants of a u t h o r i t y r o l e s . They:

... must engage i n the d a i l y a f f a i r s of a p o l i t i c a l system; they must be recognized by most members of the system as having the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r these matters; and t h e i r a c t i o n s must be ac­cepted as b i n d i n g most of the time by most of the members as long as they act w i t h i n the l i m i t s of t h e i r r o l e s (D. Easton, 1965, (b), p. 212).

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The second o b j e c t , the regime, c o n s i s t s of three components: "values (goals

and p r i n c i p l e s ) , norms, ... and the formal and i n f o r m a l patterns i n which

power i s d i s t r i b u t e d and organized w i t h regard to the a u t h o r i t a t i v e making

and implementing of d e c i s i o n s ..." (D. Easton, 1965, (b), p. 193). The

p o l i t i c a l community i s defined to be:

... that aspect of a p o l i t i c a l system that c o n s i s t s of i t s members seen as a group of persons bound together by a p o l i t i c a l d i v i ­s i o n of labor (D. Easton, 1965, (b), p. 177).

Turning to the question of r e l a t i o n s h i p s between the objects of a

system, i t i s apparent that Easton diverges s l i g h t l y from a focus on the

i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s between h i s three o b j e c t s . He defines a system as "...

any set of v a r i a b l e s regardless of the degree of i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p among

them" (1965, (b), p. 21; emphasis mine). Furt h e r , "the only question of

importance about a set s e l e c t e d as a system ... i s whether t h i s set con-

s t i t u t e s an i n t e r e s t i n g one" (1965, (b), p. 21). I n i t s strongest sense,

an ' i n t e r e s t i n g ' system i s a p o l i t i c a l system defined as the i n t e r a c t i o n

between r o l e s o r i e n t e d towards the " a u t h o r i t a t i v e a l l o c a t i o n of values"

(D. Easton, 1965, (a), p. 50). Behavior not d i r e c t e d i n t h i s manner i s non-

p o l i t i c a l by d e f i n i t i o n . I t c o n s t i t u t e s the environment of the p o l i t i c a l

system, which w i l l be discussed below. This completes the d i s c u s s i o n of

the b a s i c objects which populate Easton's n o t i o n of system. We must ask

what the dependent v a r i a b l e i s , i n order to f u r t h e r discuss the r e l a t i o n ­

ships between the p o l i t i c a l o b j e c t s .

* While the question of whether or not the c r i t e r i o n of ' i n t e r e s t ' can i n f a c t lead t o the s e l e c t i o n of a system i s an important one, i t i s outside our present scope.

- 7 -

The Dependent V a r i a b l e s : C r i t i q u e and Reformulation. In Easton's model

of p o l i t i c s there are three p o s s i b l e candidates f o r the dependent v a r i a b l e

p o s i t i o n : system p e r s i s t e n c e , system change, and system s t r e s s . We present

a r e f o r m u l a t i o n o f these notions showing t h a t : (a) the research returns

from a study of system p e r s i s t e n c e are minimal and that the concept should

be ignored; (b) 'change' must be redefined to be t h e o r e t i c a l l y and empir­

i c a l l y u s e f u l ; (c) the n o t i o n of ' s t r e s s ' i s our chosen dependent v a r i a b l e .

The n o t i o n of system p e r s i s t e n c e i s not very i n t e r e s t i n g as a

focus f o r p o l i t i c a l i n q u i r y . In Easton's terms, the system can be s a i d to

p e r s i s t as long as the two e s s e n t i a l v a r i a b l e s of the system--"the a l l o c a ­

t i o n of values f o r a s o c i e t y and the r e l a t i v e frequency of compliance w i t h

them" (1965, (b), p. 24)--are i n o p e r a t i o n . However, the number of cases

of a f a i l u r e to p e r s i s t are few and the dichotomous q u a l i t y of the concept

forces the researcher to say e i t h e r the system -'.is p e r s i s t i n g ' or i t i s not

p e r s i s t i n g . E m p i r i c a l questions of 'how much' p e r s i s t e n c e are unanswerable

or unaskable. This p o s i t i o n seems to be supported by P.E. Converse when he

notes:

I f the p o l i t i c a l system i s c o n s t i t u t e d by i n t e r ­a c t i o n s o r i e n t e d toward the a u t h o r i t a t i v e a l l o c a ­t i o n of values w i t h i n whatever geographic scope the s o c i e t y can be s a i d to f u n c t i o n , and i s con­sid e r e d t o p e r s i s t as long as such i n t e r a c t i o n s p e r s i s t , then i t i s hard f o r me to see what w i l l stop them short of the catastrophe that wipes out the p o p u l a t i o n engaging i n them. .... f a i l u r e t o s u r v i v e through such causes i s extremely rare and hinges on v a r i a b l e s exogenous to almost any study of p o l i t i c a l process (1965, p. 1102).

I f t h i s p o s i t i o n i s c o r r e c t , then we can s a f e l y ignore system p e r s i s t e n c e

as a subject of i n q u i r y .

- 8 -

Turning to the n o t i o n of system change, we must r e c a l l that a

system c o n s i s t s of i n t e r a c t i o n among p o l i t i c a l o b j e c t s : the a u t h o r i t i e s ,

the regime, and the p o l i t i c a l community. In Easton 1s view, system change

i s r e l a t e d to changes i n the p o l i t i c a l o b jects and to the concept of per­

s i s t e n c e discarded above. He s t a t e s :

Change of a system w i l l t u r n out to mean change of one or another of these objects and only where a l l objects change simul­taneously can we consider that the former system has disappeared. Conversely, a system may p e r s i s t i n t o t o or only w i t h respect to one of i t s b a s i c objects (1965, (b), p. 172; I t a l i c s i n o r i g i n a l ) .

The question remains: 'How much change equals non-persistence?' Easton i s

very ambiguous on t h i s p o i n t . The above quotation contains the p r o p o s i t i o n

that a l l three p o l i t i c a l o b jects must change simultaneously f o r the system

to disappear. However, consider the f o l l o w i n g statement: "... there i s

... l i t t l e l i k e l i h o o d that a system could survive i f i t f a i l e d to support

occupants f o r these a u t h o r i t y r o l e s " (D. Easton, 1965, (b), p. 212). A l ­

though these statements are out of context, Easton's confusion of personnel

change and system p e r s i s t e n c e i s e a s i l y recognized. Probing somewhat more

deeply, we f i n d the confusion compounded. What happens when the system

changes: i s i t a d i f f e r e n t system or does the system disappear? Does

change imply a change i n a u t h o r i t a t i v e r o l e s , or j u s t a change i n t h e i r

occupants? A good p o r t i o n of t h i s r e s u l t i s r e l a t e d to the t h e o r i s t ' s f a i l ­

ure to l a b e l systems c o n s i s t e n t l y w i t h reference t o t h e i r i n t e r n a l compon­

ents. Instead, systems are c l a s s i f i e d w i t h reference to two c r i t e r i a : t h e i r

p o s i t i o n on a d e m o c r a t i c - t o - t o t a l i t a r i a n range and the degree to which they

are s u c c e s s f u l i n the performance of the two e s s e n t i a l v a r i a b l e s or f u n c t i o n s .

- 9 -

The use of an a s c r i b e d , value-loaded d e m o c r a t i c - t o - t o t a l i t a r i a n dimension

seems inexcusable, i f the research i n t e r e s t i s i n r o l e s , p o l i t i c a l o b j e c t s ,

and t h e i r i n t e r a c t i o n s as i s Easton's (1965, (b), pp. 26-33). The emphasis

on the two e s s e n t i a l v a r i a b l e s i s a t t r i b u t a b l e to the f a c t that Easton r e ­

gards systemic a c t i v i t y as g o a l - o r i e n t e d . The a c t i v i t y of system members

i s d i r e c t e d towards 'the a u t h o r i t a t i v e a l l o c a t i o n o f values'; r o l e s t r u c ­

t u r e and the a c t i v i t y of the a u t h o r i t i e s i s o r i e n t e d towards g o a l - s e t t i n g

(outputs), goal-adjustment (feedback), and goal-maintenance (persistence)

(R.T. Golembiewski, W.A. Welsh, and W.J. C r o t t y , 1969, p. 250).

We hold that the problems of measuring and d e t e c t i n g system change

p r e c i s e l y would e n t a i l a much longer a n a l y s i s than that envisaged here. Sys­

tem change i s th e r e f o r e not our chosen dependent v a r i a b l e , but we o f f e r two

a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r the two dimensions discussed above. The f i r s t a l t e r n a t i v e

suggests that change be measured by observing the degree t o which p o l i t i c a l

r o l e s i n the s o c i e t y are d i f f e r e n t i a t e d from n o n - p o l i t i c a l ones (M.M. Czud-

nowski, 1968, pp. 878-888). The second a l t e r n a t i v e suggests t h a t change be

measured by observing the degree to which a u t h o r i t y and i t s agents are cen­

t r a l i z e d (P.E. Converse, 1965, p. 1102; M. Haas, 1967, pp. 71-73 esp.).

Our chosen dependent v a r i a b l e i s system s t r e s s . I n Easton's terms,

s t r e s s i s " s a i d t o occur when there i s a danger that the e s s e n t i a l v a r i a b l e s

w i l l be pushed beyond ... t h e i r c r i t i c a l range" (1965, (b), p. 24). The de­

gree t o which the e s s e n t i a l v a r i a b l e s are d i s p l a c e d w i t h i n t h i s ' c r i t i c a l

range' i s the degree of s t r e s s on the p o l i t i c a l system. The degree of d i s ­

placement i s i n d i c a t e d by the r e l a t i v e a b i l i t y of the a u t h o r i t i e s to a l l o c a t e

values f o r the s o c i e t y , and by the degree to which members of the s o c i e t y

- 10 -

accept such a l l o c a t i o n s as bi n d i n g (D. Easton, 1965, (b), p. 25). We hold

that t h i s f o r m u l a t i o n i s non-operational and extremely d i f f i c u l t to connect

t o data sources. Stress must be thought of i n such a way that i t c l e a r l y

suggests data sources, and i n a way that can be connected to p o l i t i c a l sup­

port as the independent v a r i a b l e .

Stress i s th e r e f o r e r e d e f i n e d as change i n any or a l l of Easton's

three b a s i c p o l i t i c a l o b j e c t s : the a u t h o r i t i e s , the regime and the p o l i t i c a l

community. The a u t h o r i t i e s can be thought of as the occupants of a u t h o r i t y

r o l e s . The regime i s regarded to be the formal s t r u c t u r i n g of a u t h o r i t y

r o l e s . F o l l o w i n g t h i s d e f i n i t i o n , c o n s t i t u t i o n a l or e x t r a - c o n s t i t u t i o n a l

a l t e r a t i o n i n the type of s t r u c t u r e — p r e s i d e n t i a l to parliamentary, p a r l i a ­

mentary to monarchical, unicameral to bicameral, f o r example--is held to be

regime change. The p o l i t i c a l community i s more d i f f i c u l t t o de a l w i t h , s i n c e

i t i s b a s i c a l l y an on-going process s o c i a l i z i n g or preparing the i n d i v i d u a l ' s

p e r s p e c t i v e of the f i r s t two obj e c t s (G.J. Bender., 1967, pp. 390-407) . While

i t i s extremely d i f f i c u l t to detect change i n the p o l i t i c a l community, we

s h a l l s t i l l t r y to come to an e m p i r i c a l l y reasonable d e f i n i t i o n . This paper

contends that change i n the community can be accounted for by the u t i l i z a t i o n

of two separate c r i t e r i a . The f i r s t dimension defines community change as

change i n community type, using the degree to which i n d i v i d u a l s ' a c t i v i t y

i s considered to be p o l i t i c a l by e i t h e r the a u t h o r i t i e s or by the i n d i v i d u a l s

themselves. The guidin g research question i s : how s a l i e n t i s p o l i t i c s (M.M.

Czudnowski, 1968, p. 882 esp.)? Second, change i n the p o l i t i c a l community i s

defined as change i n i t s membership. The d i r e c t i n g question i s : How many

people opt out of the p o l i t i c a l community altogether? While I am t h i n k i n g

here p a r t i c u l a r l y of persons who leave the n a t i o n a l u n i t r a t h e r than p a r t i c i -

- 11 -

pate i n the f u l l r e q u i s i t e s of c i t i z e n s h i p , a measure of covert change i n the

community would be e q u a l l y v a l i d .

Taking these d e f i n i t i o n s of the compondents of s t r e s s i n t o account,

the degree of s t r e s s w i l l depend on the r e l a t i o n s h i p between four dimensions

of object change. The f i r s t of these i s an assigned dimension which a r b i t r a r ­

i l y gives weights to the importance of change for each of the three p o l i t i c a l

o b j e c t s . The other three dimensions are e s s e n t i a l l y b e h a v i o r a l . They are:

the i n c l u s i v e n e s s , the frequency, and the l e v e l of change. The f i r s t asks

how many of the three objects change at once; the second asks how o f t e n any

or a l l of the obj e c t s change; the t h i r d asks at what geographical-governmental

leve1 change takes place. I f we a s s i g n a r b i t r a r y values from one to three

f o r each dimension, we a r r i v e at the c a l c u l a t i o n s i n Table 1:1. The formula­

t i o n s suggested by Table 1: 1 seem f a i r l y s t r a i g h t - f o r w a r d , but some examples

might serve t o c l a r i f y the connections between the c a t e g o r i e s . Consider the

case of the a u t h o r i t i e s changing y e a r l y at the n a t i o n a l l e v e l . S u b s t i t u t i n g

our values the sequence i s : 1 x 1 + 3 + 3 = 7 . F i n a l l y , consider a l l three

ob j e c t s changing y e a r l y at the n a t i o n a l l e v e l . The c a l c u l a t i o n i s : 6 x 3

+ 3 + 3 = 24. The importance of each object i s m u l t i p l i e d by the importance

of the other objects i f they too change; t h i s value i s m u l t i p l i e d by the

appropriate i n c l u s i v e n e s s value, and the other two amounts are added.

The major d i f f i c u l t y i n v o l v e d i n t h i s r e f o r m u l a t i o n i s that i t i s

crude. The weights assigned t o the three p o l i t i c a l o b jects i n our 'impor­

tance' category are l a r g e l y a r b i t r a r y . However, our sequence i s supported

by Easton's o r d e r i n g of the objects i n terms of the l i k e l i h o o d of t h e i r

change (1965, (b), p. 321). Our category r e p r e s e n t i n g the l e v e l at which

TABLE 1: 1

STRESS AS A SUMMARY VARIABLE

Inc l u s i v e n e s s value x Importance (o b j . importance x o b j . Frequency Le v e l T o t a l

importance) Stress

1 a u t h o r i t i e s 1 one object 1 every 5-10 y r s . 1 l o c a l maximum po i n t s

2 regime X 2 two objects + 2' every 2-4 y r s . + 2 r e g i o n a l = p o s s i b l e

3 p o l i t . comm. 3 three objects 3 y e a r l y 3 n a t i o n a l = 24.

- 13 -

change occurs i s somewhat ambiguous. I t may mean change i n a s i n g l e l o c a l

area, or i t may mean l o c a l areas on a nation-wide b a s i s . In a d d i t i o n , I

have not weighted f o r the d i f f e r e n c e i n importance i m p l i e d by these pos­

s i b i l i t i e s . Concluding t h i s s e c t i o n on the dependent v a r i a b l e , i t i s argued

that w h i l e our r e d e f i n i t i o n of s t r e s s i s not s o p h i s t i c a t e d , i t does b r i n g

the Eastonian framework a large step c l o s e r to t e s t a b i l i t y . We must empha­

s i z e that s t r e s s i s now the dependent v a r i a b l e and that i t i s a segment of

t o t a l systemic behavior. The system and i t s behavior does not e x i s t i n a

vacuum, however. I t e x i s t s i n an environment, parts of which a f f e c t s t r e s s .

The Environment. H a l l and Fagen present a concise d e f i n i t i o n of the environ­

ment i n General Systems terms: "For a given system, the environment i s the

set o f a l l o b j e c t s , a change i n whose a t t r i b u t e s a f f e c t the system ... "

(1956, p. 20; emphasis i n o r i g i n a l ) . Since the system has an environment

and since changes i n the environment a f f e c t systemic behavior, the system i s

considered to be open. Expla n a t i o n of systemic behavior cannot be completely

accounted f o r by changes i n the c o n s t i t u e n t parts (objects) of the system

(H.S. Sprout and M. Sprout, 1957; E.J. Meehan, 1968, pp. 50-53 esp.). The

r e l a t i o n s h i p between environment and system i s t h e r e f o r e a causal one; ex­

changes take place between the environment and the system.

I n Easton's terms, the environment i s made up of n o n - p o l i t i c a l be­

h a v i o r : that behavior which i s not o r i e n t e d toward the a u t h o r i t a t i v e a l l o c a ­

t i o n of val u e s . This n o n - p o l i t i c a l behavior i s d i v i d e d i n t o i n t r a - s o c i e t a l

and e x t r a - s o c i e t a l segments, each of which may be viewed as a system i n i t s

own r i g h t . The i n t r a - s o c i e t a l environment corresponds to the s o c i e t y i n which

the p o l i t i c a l system i s embedded; the e x t r a - s o c i e t a l environment i s e x t e r n a l

- 14 -

to both (D. Easton, 1965, (b), p. 21). I n an a l y s i n g a n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l

system, one would consider the former ' s o c i e t y 1 , and the l a t t e r 'the i n t e r ­

n a t i o n a l system'.

Easton's exchanges from the environment to the system are c a l l e d

i n p u t s . They c o n s i s t of two summary v a r i a b l e s : demands and support. We

s h a l l l a r g e l y ignore the former and concentrate on support i n t h i s a n a l y s i s .

This i m p l i e s that only a p o r t i o n of the variance i n system s t r e s s can be

accounted f o r by the use of the o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d v e r s i o n of p o l i t i c a l sup­

port which we w i l l present. Demands would account f o r another p o r t i o n of

the v a r i a n c e .

I t may a l s o be asked why support i s part of the environment. Easton's

defense of t h i s placement i s as f o l l o w s :

Without the inputs i t would be d i f f i c u l t to d e l i n e a t e the p r e c i s e o p e r a t i o n a l way i n which the behavior of the various sectors of s o c i e t y a f f e c t s what happens i n the p o l i t i c a l sphere (1965, (b), p. 26).

In more formal terms, Easton's defense means that support i s placed i n the

environment t o avoid contaminating the independent v a r i a b l e w i t h behavior

a t t r i b u t a b l e to the dependent v a r i a b l e . I s t h i s defense acceptable and i s

i t c o n s i s t e n t ? A c c e p t a b i l i t y depends upon the importance one attaches to

system boundaries. For our purposes, we would l i k e to view support as a

l a r g e l y p o l i t i c a l phenomenon. This demands that support be l a b e l l e d a

* I am aware that Easton d i s t i n g u i s h e s between exchanges, which express a two-way b e h a v i o r a l r e l a t i o n s h i p between the environment and the system, and t r a n s a c t i o n s which express a one-way r e l a t i o n s h i p . I have ignored the l a t t e r i n order t o make use of the more dynamic concept.

- 15 -

withinput--an a c t i v i t y undertaken by members w i t h i n the p o l i t i c a l system

and d i r e c t e d towards the objects of the system (D. Easton, 1965, (b), pp.

55-56). A l t e r n a t i v e l y , we can r e t a i n support as an environmental v a r i a b l e ,

impart p o l i t i c a l content to i t , and narrow the boundaries of the p o l i t i c a l

system. The p o l i t i c a l system would be redefined as the i n t e r a c t i o n between

the p o l i t i c a l o b j e c t s , as we have defined them. This corresponds roughly

to Easton's use of subsystems to e x p l a i n t o t a l systemic behavior. We do

not preclude the p o s s i b i l i t y that some overlap e x i s t s between the p o l i t i c a l

system proper and p o l i t i c a l behavior i n the environment. We may now t u r n

to a more p r e c i s e treatment of our independent v a r i a b l e : p o l i t i c a l support.

The Independent V a r i a b l e : P o l i t i c a l Support. In terms of the Eastonian

framework, support i s conceived to be a summary v a r i a b l e l i n k i n g environ­

mental behavior to v a r i a t i o n i n the a b i l i t y of the a u t h o r i t i e s t o a l l o c a t e

values and the r e l a t i v e frequency of compliance w i t h them. As a summary

v a r i a b l e , support i s composed of two support subtypes: overt and covert

support. The overt type i s defined to be "observable behavior" (D. Easton,

1965, (b), p. 159). I t i s e s s e n t i a l l y o t h e r — d i r e c t e d ; i t i s a c t i v i t y on

b e h a l f of, or whose consequences are favorable t o , some A l t e r . On the other

hand, covert support i s :

... an i n t e r n a l form of behavior, an o r i e n t a t i o n t h a t takes the shape of a set of a t t i t u d e s or pre­d i s p o s i t i o n s or a readiness to act on behalf of someone or something e l s e (D. Easton, 1965, (b), p. 160).

I t must be remembered that both types of support c o n s t i t u t e inputs f o r the

system. As shown i n Figure 1: 1, p o l i t i c a l support i s the t o t a l flow of

l a t e n t and manifest behavior from the environment i n t o the p o l i t i c a l system.

I o u •H >

o

H

H

E c o l o g i c a l System

B i o l o g i c a l System

P e r s o n a l i t y System

S o c i a l System

The I n t r a -

S o c i e t a l Environment

I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c a l Systems

I n t e r n a t i o n a l E c o l o g i c a l ' Systems

I n t e r n a t i o n a l S o c i a l ' Systems

The E x t r a -

S o c i e t a l Environment

FIGURE 1: 1

SUPPORT AND THE POLITICAL SYSTEM

The P o l i t i c a l System

Demands CM

Flow Of Information Feedback About Demands

Support </ >rt r i

To The A u t h o r i t i e s

To The Regime To The

P o l i t i c a l Community

Information Feedback >

About Support

Ou_t^ut_Bx>undary Threshold

I n t e r a c t i o n Between Outputs And I n f o r ­mation About Demands And Support

Outputs I

I

Feedback Loop

- 17 -

This input i s f u r t h e r conceived to be d i r e c t e d towards the three c l a s s e s of

p o l i t i c a l o b j e c t s , t h e changes i n which we have agreed to l a b e l s t r e s s . The

f o l l o w i n g three hypotheses e x p l i c a t e the r e l a t i o n s h i p between support and

s t r e s s most d i r e c t l y :

1. 'the lower the degree of support f o r the p o l i t i c a l community, the greater the degree of systemic s t r e s s ' (D. Easton, 1965, (b), p. 157);

2. ' i f the members of a system c o n s i s t e n t l y f a i l e d to support some k i n d of regime, t h i s lack of support would d r i v e the e s s e n t i a l v a r i a b l e s beyond t h e i r c r i t i c a l range and would thereby prevent a system from o p e r a t i n g ' (D. Easton, 1965, (b), p. 191);

3. ' i f no system i s able to p e r s i s t without a s s u r i n g i t s e l f of a minimal flow of support toward the regime, i n c l u d i n g the s t r u c t u r e of a u t h o r i t i e s , there i s e q u a l l y l i t t l e l i k e l i h o o d that a system could s u r v i v e i f i t f a i l e d to support occupants f o r these a u t h o r i t y r o l e s ' (D. Easton, 1965, (b), p. 212).

The problem of o p e r a t i o n a l i z i n g the independent v a r i a b l e s t i l l remains. For

example, we would l i k e to know what set of behaviors c o n s t i t u t e s p o l i t i c a l

support. We would a l s o l i k e t o know how to measure the amount of support

put i n t o the system.

Easton i s seldom e x p l i c i t on e i t h e r of these above matters. In h i s \

framework b e h a v i o r a l support may be measured i n terms of i t s r e s u l t s (D.

Easton, 1965, (b), p. 159). Or, from a s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t p e r s p e c t i v e , i t of

may be measured i n terms/deviant behavior. I n t h i s connection Easton s t a t e s :

Hence the r a t i o of deviance to conformity as measured by v i o l a t i o n s o f laws,the prevalence of v i o l e n c e , the s i z e of d i s s i d e n t movements, or the amount of money spent f o r s e c u r i t y , would provide i n d i v i d u a l i n d i c e s of support (1965, (b), p. 153).

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Concerning the matter of covert support, Easton p o s t u l a t e s two methods of

a n a l y s i s . F i r s t , he contends that the gap between a t t i t u d e s or expectations

h e l d and ac t i o n s performed i s one p o s s i b l e focus of measurement. Says Easton:

" D i f f e r e n c e s between i n t e n t i o n and consequence are rel e v a n t f o r e s t i m a t i n g

the degree of support i m p l i e d i n behavior and expectations regarding i t s

continuance" (1965, (b), p. 160). In t h i s way covert support acts as a

m o d i f i e r of b e h a v i o r a l support, or i t acts as an i n t e r v e n i n g v a r i a b l e between

b e h a v i o r a l support and s t r e s s . Second, Easton advocates the measurement of

covert support i n terms of an a t t i t u d i n a l i n t e n s i t y dimension. The b a s i c

question asks: 'How p o s i t i v e l y or n e g a t i v e l y committed to the p o l i t i c a l

o b j e c t s are the i n d i v i d u a l s i n s o c i e t y ? ' I f we tu r n to the problem of the

amount of support and the problem of co n s i d e r i n g behaviors and a t t i t u d e s

which may be s t r e s s f u l , we f i n d that Easton i s e q u a l l y vague. The f o l l o w ­

in g statement i s i l l u m i n a t i n g i n t h i s regard:

The p r o b a b i l i t y of the members accepting a l l d e c i s i o n s as bindin g i s u s u a l l y l e s s than one ... yet i t must c e r t a i n l y be higher than .5 ... The r a t i o of r e j e c t i o n to acceptance must f a l l w i t h i n a l i m i t e d range w e l l above that of chance (D. Easton, 1965, (b), p. 97).

B r i e f l y r e c a p i t u l a t i n g the arguments made i n t h i s chapter, we come

to the f o l l o w i n g c o n c l u s i o n s . The p o l i t i c a l system c o n s i s t s of the i n t e r ­

a c t i o n between the three p o l i t i c a l o b j e c t s : the a u t h o r i t i e s , the regime,

and the p o l i t i c a l community. Stress i s our dependent v a r i a b l e and i t i s

made up of v a r i a t i o n on four dimensions of change: importance, i n c l u s i v e ­

ness, frequency, and l e v e l . P o l i t i c a l support i s our independent v a r i a b l e

and i t c o n s i s t s of covert: and overt subtypes. The r e l a t i o n s h i p between

support and the system i s a caus a l one, since i t i s postu l a t e d that variance

- 19 -

i n p o l i t i c a l support accounts f o r a p o r t i o n of the variance i n s t r e s s . Our

task t h e r e f o r e concerns the measurement and the content of support. The

m a j o r i t y of Chapters I I , I I I , and IV i s devoted to these two matters since

t h e i r c l a r i f i c a t i o n i s the c e n t r a l purpose of t h i s paper. Chapter V i s

devoted to an examination of the connections between our o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d

v e r s i o n of support and s t r e s s .

CHAPTER I I

THE DIMENSIONS OF SUPPORT

This chapter w i l l c o n t a i n three t o p i c s of d i s c u s s i o n : (1) the

dimensions of p o l i t i c a l support; (2) the nature of i n d i c a t o r s ; (3) the

source of some problems as s o c i a t e d w i t h the above analyses. We noted i n

Chapter I th a t support as a t summary v a r i a b l e could be s p l i t i n t o two sub­

types: overt and covert support. I t was argued that while these c o n s t r u c t s

may have some u t i l i t y i n a m a c r o - a n a l y t i c a l sense, they do not lend them­

selves to e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s . In order to break these c o n s t r u c t s down i n t o

segments more amenable to the c o n s t r u c t i o n of i n d i c a t o r s , dimensions must be

assigned to each type. This i s the primary task of the succeeding d i s c u s s i o n .

The l o g i c behind the above a s s e r t i o n s i s b a s i c a l l y simple. A rock,

i n a s t r i c t s ense,is a construct and cannot be measured d i r e c t l y . But a rock

possesses p r o p e r t i e s - - s u c h as c o l o r , weight, and hardness--for which values

can be assigned. In the same way, covert and overt support are constructs

and, by our reasoning, r e q u i r e assigned p r o p e r t i e s to f a c i l i t a t e t h e i r measure­

ment. P r i o r to the development of these p r o p e r t i e s , the operative l i m i t a t i o n s

of the argument must be noted.

The f i r s t l i m i t a t i o n i s the f a c t that t h i s study i s l a r g e l y concerned

w i t h the n a t i o n a l l e v e l of a n a l y s i s . Therefore 'system' w i l l be used c o t e r -

minously w i t h n a t i o n - s t a t e , although we w i l l a l s o have occasion to po s t u l a t e

both a r e g i o n a l and a l o c a l l e v e l . In such cases, we s h a l l be c a r e f u l to

make the appropriate adjustments f o r the l e v e l of the system we are analysing

(J.D. Singer, 1961, pp. 77-92). The primary reason f o r focusing on the na­

t i o n a l l e v e l i s the greater a v a i l a b i l i t y of data and i n d i c a t o r s . The second

l i m i t a t i o n i s that the d i s c u s s i o n below w i l l be i n general terms, i t s only

object being to o u t l i n e what i s being d i f f e r e n t i a t e d by the va r i o u s proper­

t i e s (dimensions). While the dimensions can be thought of as scales of

v a r i a t i o n s - - g i v e n the assignment of values--no c u t t i n g p o i n t s are assigned.

I n an e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s , the choice of i n d i c a t o r s and the nature of the

data would determine the c u t t i n g - p o i n t s and the s c a l e type r e s p e c t i v e l y (W.

S. Torgerson, 1958, Chapters 1-3 esp.; K. Janda, 1965, pp. 168-175 esp.).

Since t h i s paper deals only w i t h i n d i c a t o r s , the ranges on each of the as­

signed p r o p e r t i e s are e i t h e r d e f i n i t i o n a l or i l l u s t r a t i v e ; no 'true' c u t t i n g -

p o i n t s can be assigned. The t h i r d l i m i t a t i o n i s the assumption t h a t p o l i t i ­

c a l support i s being observed on a l l of i t s assigned dimensions at a f i x e d

i n s t a n t o f time. The immediate,and c o r r e c t , o b j e c t i o n i s that such a s t a t i c

p e r s p e c t i v e precludes the a n a l y s i s of support f l u c t u a t i o n s . The assumption,

however, i s made mainly to reduce temporal confusion. A dynamic a n a l y s i s

can be made by o b t a i n i n g a s e r i e s of measurements on a l l dimensions over a

s p e c i f i e d time p e r i o d . Indeed, at va r i o u s p o i n t s i n the paper we w i l l be

forced to u t i l i z e a dynamic pe r s p e c t i v e so as not to exclude u s e f u l i n d i c a ­

t o r s . Such a n a l y s i s w i l l y i e l d estimates of the du r a t i o n and frequency of

support. The f o u r t h and f i n a l l i m i t a t i o n deals w i t h the category of covert

support and two problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h i t . The f i r s t problem a r i s e s i n

conjunction w i t h the a n a l y t i c a l content to be assigned to t h i s category.

S t a r i n g w i t h Easton's o r i g i n a l p r o p o s i t i o n that covert support i s d i r e c t l y

non-observalbe behavior i n c l u d i n g ' a t t i t u d e s , opinions and f e e l i n g s ' (1965,

(b), pp. 159-170), we s h a l l r e d e f i n e covert support to be o p i n i o n — t h e ex­

pressed p o r t i o n of a t t i t u d e or b e l i e f sets (M.B. Smith, 1954, pp. 263-4;

M. Rokeach, 1964). We do so despi t e the many i n j u n c t i o n s against using

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o p i n i o n and a t t i t u d e interchangeably (M.B. Smith, 1954; I . Chein, 1967, pp.

51-57; J.D. Singer, 1968). The r a t i o n a l e f o r pursuing t h i s l i n e of a n a l y s i s

and f o r d i s c o u n t i n g the caveats i n the l i t e r a t u r e i s that opinions are "con­

s i d e r a b l y more s p e c i f i c than a t t i t u d e s , markedly more t r a n s i t o r y , and appre­

c i a b l y more s u s c e p t i b l e to systematic o b s e r v a t i o n and measurement" ( J . D.

Singer, 1968, p. 137; emphasis mine). Two f i n a l p o i nts should a l s o be estab­

l i s h e d . The f i r s t point i s that l a t e r chapters w i l l not neglect those studies

which i n f e r a t t i t u d i n a l v a r i a t i o n using i n d i c a t o r s of a socio-economic nature

(eg. T. Gurr and C. Ruttenberg, 1964; I.K. Feierabend and R.L. Feierabend,

1966, pp. 249-271). This i s true even though the present chapter w i l l con­

ce n t r a t e on o p i n i o n as the content of covert support. Secondly, we w i l l

foreshadow subsequent d i s c u s s i o n by n o t i n g that the dimensions assigned to

covert support are t h e o r e t i c a l l y a p p l i c a b l e . In Chapter I I I we s h a l l have

occasion to p o s t u l a t e s e v e r a l reasons why the category of covert support

should not be i n c l u d e d i n an a n a l y s i s of t o t a l p o l i t i c a l support. Having

o u t l i n e d these l i m i t a t i o n s , we can now proceed w i t h a more complete a n a l y s i s

of the dimensions of p o l i t i c a l support.

The Dimensions of Overt and Covert Support. In t h i s chapter we are con­

cerned w i t h three b a s i c dimensions: s i z e , c o n c e n t r a t i o n , and i n t e n s i t y .

We s h a l l a l s o be concerned w i t h the d i r e c t i o n of p o l i t i c a l support, although

t h i s dimension d i f f e r s q u a l i t a t i v e l y from our f i r s t t h r e e . Each of these

p r o p e r t i e s w i l l be discussed i n t u r n .

S i z e . As i t a p p l i e s t o overt behavior, the s i z e dimension i s r e l a t e d to

the number of p a r t i c i p a n t s engaged i n supportive or non-supportive behavior.

I t i s a l s o r e l a t e d to the number of behaviors or c l a s s e s of behaviors p a r t i c - i —

- 23 -

pated i n by members of the p o l i t i c a l system. In the case of covert support,

the s i z e dimension expresses the number of persons h o l d i n g opinions of a

supportive or non-supportive nature. As expressed above, these measures

represent raw populations and some s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n i s appropriate. In i t s

standardized form s i z e i s defined to be: the number of p a r t i c i p a n t s , be­

h a v i o r s , or opinion-holders over a r e l e v a n t base p o p u l a t i o n . 'Relevancy'

i s determined l a r g e l y by the research question, and i n t h i s study the most

appropriate'bases' w i l l be the number of e l i g i b l e v o t e r s , t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n ,

and standardized u n i t s of t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n . I t should be noted that the

standardized v e r s i o n of s i z e subsumes the u s u a l conception of 'scope' or

'pervasiveness' (T. Gurr, 1968, p. 1107 esp.) which we noted at the begin­

ning of t h i s chapter.

Concentration. The c o n c e n t r a t i o n dimension expresses the degree to which

p a r t i c i p a n t s , a c t s , o r opinion-holders are dispersed w i t h i n a p o l i t i c a l system.

The t a r g e t of t h i s dimension i s the d i s p e r s i o n of overt and covert behavior

patterns w i t h i n "geographical areas, and ... e t h n i c , r e l i g i o u s and s o c i a l ,

and economic groups w i t h i n the country" (C. Ake, 1967, p. 10). The guid­

in g l o g i c i s : the greater the d i v e r s i t y of support group membership, the

lower the degree of c o n c e n t r a t i o n . I f we switch our c r i t e r i a of d i f f e r e n ­

t i a t i o n from the above to a set expressing the r u l e s of access to systemic

power centers, we have a d i f f e r e n t measure of c o n c e n t r a t i o n . By u t i l i z i n g

such c r i t e r i a as the breadth of the e l e c t o r a l f r a n c h i s e , e l i t e group char­

a c t e r i s t i c s and the l e v e l of p o l i t i c a l development (P. C u t r i g h t , 1963, pp.

253-264), some measure of support c o n c e n t r a t i o n may be obtained. A f a i r l y

c l o s e approximation of the ' p o l i t i c a l l y r e l e v a n t ' members (D. Easton, 1965,

(h), pp. 154-155 esp.) might then be made by s u b t r a c t i n g the number of per-

- 24 -

sons occupying r o l e s — w h i c h are s p e c i f i c a l l y a u t h o r i t a t i v e (D. Easton, 1965,

(b), p. 2 1 2 ) — f r o m the measure obtained on the l a t t e r c o n c e n t r a t i o n dimen­

s i o n .

I n t e n s i t y . The t h i r d dimension of support i s c o n s i d e r a b l y more complex

than s i z e and c o n c e n t r a t i o n . Several a n a l y t i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e s are p o s s i b l e

f o r the r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of i n t e n s i t y , although the number of p a r t i c i p a n t s i n

supportive a c t i v i t i e s or opinions should be e l i m i n a t e d to preserve the i n ­

t e g r i t y of our c a t e g o r i e s . In the case of overt support, a c t i v i t i e s can be

arranged i n order of t h e i r degree of aggressiveness. While a dichotomiza-

t i o n of a c t i v i t y according to the use or non-use of p h y s i c a l force (R.

Rummel, 1965,.p. 205), such a d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n submerges too many of the

f i n e r d i s t i n c t i o n s between l e v e l s of i n t e n s i t y . Given t h i s l i m i t a t i o n , we

s h a l l r e t a i n aggressiveness as a c l o s e approximation of i n t e n s i t y but we

s h a l l l a t e r introduce s e v e r a l refinements based on the nature of the be­

haviors considered and on the type of i n d i c a t o r used. I f we pursue the i n ­

t e n s i t y of b e h a v i o r a l support somewhat f a r t h e r , i t i s apparent that counting

behaviors and ranking them according to t h e i r degree of aggressiveness does

not account for the temporal spacing of such behavior. Much of the l i t e r a ­

t u r e d e a l i n g w i t h c i v i l or i n t e r n a t i o n a l v i o l e n c e u t i l i z e s a measure of

behavior or perceptions of behavior over time as a s c a l e of i n t e n s i t y (O.R.

H o l s t i , 1963, pp. 608-617; R. Tanter, 1965; T. Gurr, 1968, p. 1107). This

a n a l y s i s w i l l , however, reserve the frequency of behavior as a subordinate

measure.

The i n t e n s i t y of covert support may be approached most d i r e c t l y by

examining how s t r o n g l y i n d i v i d u a l s h o l d o p i n i o n s . Several a n a l y t i c a l per-

s p e c t i v e s are again apparent. Easton suggests that the degree to which an

i n d i v i d u a l i s w i l l i n g to o b l i t e r a t e himself f o r some p o l i t i c a l object can

be used as the i n t e n s i t y ( a f f e c t ) dimension (1965, (b), p. 163). To Easton,

the v a r i a b l e u n d e r l y i n g the a f f e c t dimension i s the w i l l i n g n e s s of i n d i v i d ­

u a l s to act on behalf of opinions they h o l d . O b l i t e r a t i o n i s assumed to be

supportive, and t h i s i n i t s e l f i s m i s l e a d i n g . Moreover, such a view i s de­

f i c i e n t i n at l e a s t one more c r u c i a l respect: i n d i v i d u a l s w i t h c l e a r - c u t

opinions and w i t h strong f e e l i n g s attached to them, o f t e n do not act i n

accordance w i t h these i n j u n c t i o n s f o r a c t i o n (J.N. Rosenau, 1961, pp. 35-

41 esp.). S e v e r a l f a c t o r s intervene between the s t r o n g l y f e l t need t o act

and the act i t s e l f . E f f i c a c y , socio-economic c r i t e r i a , and resources serve

as examples of such i n t e r v e n i n g v a r i a b l e s (E.L. M c D i l l and J.C. R i d l e y ,

1962; E. L i t t , 1963; M.E. Olsen, 1965; H. K r e i t l e r and S. K r e i t l e r , 1967).

While we recognize the n e c e s s i t y to deal w i t h t h i s d i f f i c u l t y , we are r e a l l y

r e s t r i c t e d to the l e v e l of suggestion and e x p l o r a t i o n by the f a c t that we

have not c o l l e c t e d data. Given the lack of a b a s i s f o r v e r i f i c a t i o n , some

of the f o l l o w i n g approaches may w e l l seem a r b i t r a r y . F i r s t of a l l , we can

suggest that b e h a v i o r a l data be used to i n f e r o p inion i n t e n s i t y . The guid­

i n g l o g i c i s : the greater the degree of congruence between expressed opin­

i o n and the behavior i m p l i e d by that o p i n i o n , the greater the degree of opin­

i o n i n t e n s i t y . More w i l l be s a i d of t h i s matter i n Chapter I I I . Secondly,

the i n t e n s i t y of o p i n i o n can be i n f e r r e d from the degree of agreement w i t h

some behavior, i s s u e , or o p i n i o n . P u b l i c o p i n i o n p o l l s commonly c l a s s i f y

data according to c a t e g o r i e s such as: agree (or d i s a g r e e ) ; agree s t r o n g l y ;

agree very s t r o n g l y (V.O. Key, 1964; Chapters 2 and 3 esp.). I n t e n s i t y can

a l s o be i n d i c a t e d by the b a s i s of the n e c e s s i t y to a c t , the inference being

that the more i n d i v i d u a l s f e e l i t necessary to a c t , the greater the degree

of i n t e n s i t y i n d i c a t e d (H. Eulau and P. Schneider, 1956; M. Edelman, 1960;

E. Cataldo and L. K e l l s t e d t , 1968; L. M i l b r a t h , 1968). Or, i n t e n s i t y can

be i n d i c a t e d by the ' h a b i t - s t r e n g t h ' of agreement of disagreement w i t h ex­

pressed opinions or observed behavior (M.B. Smith, 1954, p. 262 esp.).

F i n a l l y , the d u r a t i o n of o p i n i o n - h o l d i n g could be used as a measure of the

i n t e n s i t y of covert support (D. Katz, 1966, pp. 51-64; A. Campbell et a l . ,

1960, p. 62 esp.). In c o n c l u s i o n , i t w i l l be immediately recognized that

there i s a s u b t l e s h i f t i n a n a l y s i s moving from the i n t e n s i t y of overt sup­

port to t h a t of covert support. On the former dimension the behaviors them­

selves are to be ranked; on the l a t t e r dimension the l i n k between i n d i v i d u a l s

and opinions i s the a n a l y t i c a l focus.

D i r e c t i o n . Easton c a t e g o r i z e s the d i r e c t i o n of p o l i t i c a l support i n terms

of three c a t e g o r i e s : the a u t h o r i t i e s , the regime and the p o l i t i c a l commun­

i t y (1965, (b), p. 165). On the t h e o r e t i c a l l e v e l such a macro-view seems

to assume high degrees of r a t i o n a l i t y and access on the part of the p a r t i c i ­

pant or the o p i n i o n - h o l d e r . I t a l s o seems to r e q u i r e that a h i g h l e v e l of

' v i s i b i l i t y ' be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h these o b j e c t s . As a consequence of the

amorphousness of these c a t e g o r i e s , an a n a l y s t must be very a d r o i t or very

i n t u i t i v e i n the matter of a s s i g n i n g e m p i r i c a l content to the object categories.

I t remains to be seen whether methods such as in-depth i n t e r v i e w s and content

analyses w i l l r e v e a l evidence which w i l l a t t r i b u t e more than a d e s c r i p t i v e

importance to the three c a t e g o r i e s . I n a b a s i c a l l y a r b i t r a r y f a s h i o n , the

argument i n Chapter I assigns content to the three c l a s s e s of o b j e c t s . I t

makes f u r t h e r sense to subdivide the three p o l i t i c a l o b jects i n t o three l e v e l s

w i t h i n c a t e g o r i e s of p o l i t i c a l o b jects as w e l l as between them. Drawing on

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the dimensional a n a l y s i s above, i t would seem that behaviors could be r e ­

l a t e d i n terms of t h e i r r e s u l t s to the p o l i t i c a l o b jects and l e v e l s of

d i r e c t i o n of covert support. Table 2: 1 portrays the p o s s i b l e c e l l s of a

c l a s s i f i c a t i o n scheme connecting the obj e c t s and the dimensions of support.

While t h i s f o r m u l a t i o n may w e l l be u n s a t i s f a c t o r y i n the sense that r e s u l t s

do not n e c e s s a r i l y i n d i c a t e i n t e n t i o n , the c r i t i c i s m i s r a i s e d only f o r i l ­

l u s t r a t i v e purposes. The thorough examination of the problem l i e s outside

the scope of t h i s paper. Later i n the paper, some'general hypotheses w i l l

be presented concerning the e f f e c t of d i f f e r e n t value combinations on the

degree of systemic s t r e s s . For now, i t i s s u f f i c i e n t to note that we s h a l l

TABLE 2: 1

GENERAL CLASSIFICATION OF SUPPORT

D i r e c t i o n of Support

Dimensions of Support

S i z e

a. overt

b. covert

Concentration

a. overt

b. covert

I n t e n s i t y

a. overt

b. covert

Object: A u t h o r i t i e s Regime P o l i t i c a l Community L e v e l : N a t l . Reg. Loc. N a t l . Reg. Loc. N a t l . Reg. Loc.

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be i n t e r e s t e d i n the d i s t r i b u t i o n and the c o n c e n t r a t i o n of values on a l l of

the dimensions. For example, are values d i s t r i b u t e d unimodally, bimodally,

or t r i m o d a l l y . According to the manner i n which valences form modes, and

assuming that some 'measurable' distance e x i s t s between modes, we may then

be able t o speak meaningful about p o l i t i c a l cleavage as an i n t e r v e n i n g var­

i a b l e (R. Rose and D. Urwin, 1969). In f a c t , i n r e l a t i o n to covert support,

the i n v e s t i g a t i o n of o p i n i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n may be as c l o s e as we can get to

a 'science of o p i n i o n s ' (B.C. Hennessy, 1966, pp. 251-255 esp.)>

I t should be noted that n e i t h e r the d i r e c t i o n nor the d i s t r i b u t i o n

of support have been t r e a t e d as independent v a r i a b l e s . The former i s a pro­

duct of behaviors and opinions and, i n i t s present f o r m u l a t i o n , i t f a l l s

l a r g e l y w i t h i n our conception of the dependent v a r i a b l e . The major l i m i t a ­

t i o n a r i s e s i n connection w i t h covert support, since we have p o s t u l a t e d that

i t s d i r e c t i o n should be estimated by means of the content of o p i n i o n . While

such an a n a l y s i s would seem to be c i r c u l a r and while i t may lead to the con­

tamination of our data c a t e g o r i e s , no other approach could be found to avoid

these d i f f i c u l t i e s . Some method of e s t i m a t i n g the s t r u c t u r e of a c t i o n and

o p i n i o n would considerably a i d research i n t h i s d i r e c t i o n . In t h i s respect

a dimension i n v o l v i n g the 'relatedness' of acts was i n v e s t i g a t e d i n the

course of the present research. No hard e m p i r i c a l b a s i s could be discovered

to separate behaviors which would i n v o l v e other behaviors of the same type,

from those which are e s s e n t i a l l y single-event phenomena. The ' s t r u c t u r e ' of

a c t i v i t y and o p i n i o n was t h e r e f o r e dropped as a p o s s i b l e dimension, despite

the presence of some t h e o r e t i c a l and e m p i r i c a l research which po s t u l a t e s i t s

e x i s t e n c e (M. Weber, 1961, pp. 173-179; S.J. Brams, 1968; 1969).

I n d i c a t o r s . The major purpose of t h i s paper i s to set up i n d i c a t o r s of

p o l i t i c a l support, using the r e l e v a n t l i t e r a t u r e as e x t e n s i v e l y as p o s s i b l e .

We pointed out p r e v i o u s l y that i n d i c a t o r s have only a ' p r o b a b i l i s t i c r e l a ­

t i o n ' to the concepts they represent (P.F. L a z e r f e l d , 1966, p. 89). In t h i s

study, i n v e n t o r i e s of i n d i c a t o r s are constructed to represent the three d i ­

mensions of p o l i t i c a l support: s i z e , c o n c e n t r a t i o n , and i n t e n s i t y . The

general r e l a t i o n s h i p of i n d i c a t o r s to these dimensions i s shown i n Figure 2:1.

F i n a l l y , we have used a crude two-fold c r i t e r i o n for s o r t i n g i n d i c a t o r s . F i r s t ,

i t i s necessary to know what data-universe the i n d i c a t o r i s sampling, and to

i n t u i t i v e l y gauge the s t r e n g t h of the l i n k between support and the data. This

i s our crude method of d i s t i n g u i s h i n g between 'hard' and ' s o f t ' i n d i c a t o r s .

The e m p i r i c a l s t r e n g t h of the l i n k between our i n d i c a t o r s and variance i n

p o l i t i c a l support i s l e f t as a question f o r future research. Second, i t i s

necessary to know the a v a i l a b i l i t y - a c t u a l or p o t e n t i a l - - o f the data i n d i c a t e d

(I.K. Feierabend and R.L. Feierabend, 1966, p. 258). I n the case of overt

support ' d a t a 1 , the l e v e l of a v a i l a b i l i t y seems high f o r most c o u n t r i e s .

S e v e r a l data sources such as B.M. Russett et a l (1964), Facts on F i l e , The

Annual R e g i s t e r of World Events, Keesings Contemporary A r c h i v e s , and A f r i c a

Digest provide raw and f i n i s h e d data. Raw data f o r deviant behaviors of var­

ious types may be found i n : R. Rummel (1965), R. Tanter (1965), H.D. Graham

and T. Gurr, eds. (1969). Aggregate data, such as e l e c t i o n r e t u r n s , are

u s u a l l y compiled by n a t i o n a l government and are f a i r l y r e l i a b l e f o r developed

s t a t e s . R e l i a b l e f i g u r e s f o r developing c o u n t r i e s should be obtainable from

st u d i e s done by area s p e c i a l i s t s . The a v a i l a b i l i t y of o p i n i o n data i s l i m i t e d

even f o r developed n a t i o n s , although n a t i o n a l sample surveys as w e l l as j o u r ­

n a l s such as P u b l i c Opinion Q u a r t e r l y and P o l i s o f f e r some source m a t e r i a l .

As one moves away from the developed s t a t e s , the data f o r covert support de-

- 30 -

creases r a p i d l y i n q u a l i t y and q u a n t i t y . Much can be i n f e r r e d , however,

using other i n d i c a t o r s and other data sources (I.K. Feierabend and R.L.

Feierabend, 1966; M. M i d l a r s k y and R. Tanter, 1967; E. Fossum, 1967; E.A.

Duff and J.F. McCamant, 1968; T. Gurr, 1968). F i n a l l y , a c l o s i n g caveat

i s i n order. Since much of the present a n a l y s i s i n d i c a t e s aggregate data,

care must be taken t o avoid e c o l o g i c a l f a l l a c i e s when moving from i n d i c a ­

t o r to data-gathering and from data a n a l y s i s back to the theory i t s e l f (A.

Ranney, 1962; E. Scheuch, 1966). At the same time,the analyst working w i t h

o p i n i o n data must avoid aggregate f a l l a c i e s (H. Barton, 1968, pp. 5-6).

FIGURE 2: 1

THE RELATIONSHIP OF INDICATORS TO SUPPORT DIMENSION

Overt Support

HIGH SIZE I n d i c a t o r s (Low to High)

Covert Support

HIGH SIZE I n d i c a t o r s (Low to High)

T o t a l Support

HIGH

MEDIUM CONCENTRATION I n d i c a t o r s (Low to High)

MEDIUM

(PLUS) CONCENTRATION I n d i c a t o r s (Low to High)

MEDIUM

(EQUALS)

LOW INTENSITY I n d i c a t o r s (Low to High)

LOW LOW INTENSITY I n d i c a t o r s (Low to High)

Measurement Problems. A convenient place to begin the d i s c u s s i o n of problems

of measurement i s w i t h the r e l a t i o n s h i p portrayed i n Figure 2: 1. The r e l a ­

t i o n s h i p i m p l i e s two important assumptions: that the data are s c a l a b l e and

that the scales produced are a d d i t i v e . We s h a l l examine these assumptions

to estimate the degree to which they are j u s t i f i e d .

- 31 -

I t i s contended that the data i n d i c a t e d i n the f o l l o w i n g chapters

are s c a l a b l e , but that the degree to which they are, v a r i e s throughout the

paper given d i f f e r e n t i n d i c a t o r s . A l l of the overt support data are s c a l ­

able i n o r d i n a l terms. That i s to say, they may be ranked i n terms of more

or l e s s of a given property but d i f f e r e n c e s between p o i n t s are not 'true'

distances (K. Janda, 1969, p. 169; C. S e l l t i z et a l , 1967, pp. 191-192).

The values 'high', 'low' and 'medium' assigned to the s c a l e s i n Figure 2:1

would t h e r e f o r e seem to be a p p r o p r i a t e . However, o r d i n a l s c a l i n g does not

s a t i s f y our other assumption—the a d d i t i v i t y of the s c a l e s . To cope w i t h

t h i s problem,we must e i t h e r conclude that the o r i g i n a l assumption i s f a l s e

or that the r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n d i c a t e d are s u s c e p t i b l e to i n t e r v a l s c a l i n g .

The p o i n t s on an i n t e r v a l s c a l e do represent measurable distances i n the

data and the s c a l e s thus formed by q u a n t i t i e s of a v a r i a b l e may be added

(W.S. Torgerson, 1958, pp. 16-17; B.S. P h i l l i p s , 1966, Chapter 12). I t

would t h e r e f o r e seem best t o form i n t e r v a l s c a l e s on a l l of our dimensions.

The question i s whether or not the data permit such operations. The answer

appears to, be a h i g h l y q u a l i f i e d a f f i r m a t i v e . I t i s l i k e l y that much of

the b e h a v i o r a l data d e a l i n g w i t h s i z e and c o n c e n t r a t i o n can be scaled i n t e r -

v a l l y . The i n t e n s i t y data, however, are probably only s u s c e p t i b l e t o o r d i n a l

s c a l i n g . Likewise, the s i z e and concentration of covert support may lend

themselves to i n t e r v a l s c a l i n g but the nature of the concept may c a l l t h i s

a s s e r t i o n i n t o question. The o r d i n a l s c a l i n g of covert support's i n t e n s i t y

would seem to be the most an a n a l y s t could hope f o r , although some examples

of the i n t e r v a l s c a l i n g of a t t i t u d e e x i s t (H.C. Beyle, 1932, pp. 539-544

esp.; D. Katz, 1944, pp. 51-65). More w i l l be s a i d of these mixed conclu­

sions i n l a t e r chapters.

CHAPTER I I I

COVERT SUPPORT

In Chapter I and I I we followed f a i r l y c l o s e l y Easton's d i v i s i o n

of support i n t o overt and covert subtypes. We d i d so because i t seemed use­

f u l to have l a t e n t and manifest dimensions which v a r i e d independently to

produce the input l a b e l l e d t o t a l support. In t h i s chapter,we s h a l l explore

the i m p l i c a t i o n s and f e a s i b i l i t y of t h i s d i v i s i o n . I n attempting to add

e m p i r i c a l content to the category of covert support our major focus w i l l

be on opinions and op i n i o n - h o l d e r s . At some po i n t s i n the a n a l y s i s , we

w i l l be forced t o argue i n terms of the l e s s concrete, a t t i t u d i n a l l e v e l .

T h is divergence from the assumptions made i n Chapter I I i s l a r g e l y a t t r i ­

butable t o inadequate data on op i n i o n s , or t o gaps between opinions and the

v a r i a b l e we are t r y i n g to 'load'. We s h a l l preface t h i s d i s c u s s i o n w i t h a

few remarks concerning a l t e r n a t i v e methods of juxt a p o s i n g the two types of

t o t a l p o l i t i c a l support.

The researcher i n t e r e s t e d i n support a n a l y s i s can employ the con­

cepts o f overt and covert support on the grounds that the same categories

have t o be used, i n order to do j u s t i c e to Easton's theory. The d i s t i n c t i o n

can also be j u s t i f i e d on the grounds that l a t e n t and manifest behaviors r e ­

present e n t i r e l y separate a n a l y t i c a l f i e l d s . As J . Galtung notes:

... v e r b a l and non-verbal data represent d i f f e r e n t spheres of behavior, and ... data may be v a l i d i n t h e i r own r i g h t . ... words may be defined as being epiphenomenal,as belonging to a sphere of the i d e a l , whereas deeds are r e a l i t y ; and the two may belong to d i f f e r e n t regimes ..." (1967, pp. 124-125).

A l t e r n a t i v e l y , the researcher could choose to ignore covert support a l t o g e t h e r ,

- 33 -

doing so on the grounds that overt behavior i s a good i n d i c a t o r of o p i n i o n -

h o l d i n g . He would be c a r e f u l t o note, however, that the converse r e l a t i o n ­

s h i p — o p i n i o n s are p r e d i c t o r s of overt behavior--cannot be assumed without

great c a u t i o n . Summarizing research on t h i s p o i n t R.E. Lane and D.O. Sears

s t a t e :

In short, there may or may not be c l o s e correspondence between v e r b a l l y expressed opinions and overt behavior. The two s i t ­u a tions make d i f f e r e n t requirements upon the i n d i v i d u a l , and draw d i f f e r e n t sets of responses from him (1964, p. 14).

In t h i s way, i t may be a n a l y t i c a l l y c o r r e c t t o equate overt support w i t h

t o t a l p o l i t i c a l support, but i t i s not c o r r e c t to equte covert support w i t h

t o t a l support. The i n c o n s i s t e n c i e s between opinions and behavior preclude

the l a t t e r a n a l y s i s . F i n a l l y , the researcher could modify our a n a l y s i s sub­

s t a n t i a l l y i n the f o l l o w i n g manner. Taking advantage of our i n t e n s i t y dimen­

s i o n , he could p o s t u l a t e that the i n t e n s i t y of overt support c o n s t i t u t e s the

nexus between the overt and covert types. Pursuing t h i s l o g i c , he could then

define the i n t e n s i t y of overt support to be: the degree of b e h a v i o r a l aggres­

siveness times the degree to which p a r t i c i p a n t s i n each a c t i v i t y declare i t

necessary to p a r t i c i p a t e (E. Cataldo and L. K e l l s t e d t , 1968, pp. 83-84; L.

M i l b r a t h , 1968). Such an a n a l y s i s should y i e l d a range of o p i n i o n behavior

i n t e n s i t i e s — t h e point of greatest valence c o n c e n t r a t i o n being the modal

value f o r a given p o p u l a t i o n . The two advantages of t h i s approach are: (a)

i t does not ignore covert support; and (b) i t subsumes values f o r the covert

category w i t h i n the overt category i n a s i n g l e operation. The greatest d i s ­

advantage of t h i s approach i s that i t accounts f o r covert support only i n

i t s i n t e n s i t y dimension. Although we would p r e f e r to analyse support i n terms

- 34 -

of t h i s t h i r d approach, the above-mentioned defect i s serious enough to

make necessary a separate c o n s i d e r a t i o n of covert support.

Opinions are f a r more d i f f i c u l t to s t a b i l i z e f o r support a n a l y s i s

than are behaviors. I f we consider the u s u a l t a r g e t s of o p i n i o n a n a l y s i s ,

i t i s apparent that the d i r e c t i o n of o p i n i o n i s one of the most common f o c i

(R.E. Lane and D.O. Sears, 1964, pp. 6 f f . ) . Opinions, i n t h i s view, are

d i r e c t e d toward p o l i t i c a l o b j e c t s : p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s and candidates, i s s u e s ,

' s t r u c t u r e s ' , symbols, and r u l e s . Comparing our d e f i n i t i o n s of the p o l i t i c a l

o b j e c t s t o those above, we f i n d that 'issues' do not f a l l w i t h i n our d e f i n i ­

t i o n s . I t i s a l s o apparent that 'symbols' could be accounted for p r o p e r l y ,

only i f we assume that the system i s being viewed i n a dynamic p e r s p e c t i v e .

I f we switch the focus from the objects of o p i n i o n to o p i n i o n - h o l d e r s , we

f i n d f u r t h e r d i f f i c u l t i e s . In p a r t i c u l a r , the low v i s i b i l i t y of the ' r e l e ­

vant' p u b l i c s and frequent membership changes i n those p u b l i c s — d e p e n d i n g

upon the objects of opinion--combine to produce h i g h l y unstable c a t e g o r i e s .

Compounding these d i f f i c u l t i e s i s the f a c t that the nature of the v a r i a b l e s

and i n d i c a t o r s used i n o p i n i o n research overlap e x c e s s i v e l y i n the case of

our s i z e and c o n c e n t r a t i o n dimensions. For example, l i t e r a c y may be used

as an i n d i c a t o r of s i z e (G.A. Almond and G.B. Powell, 1966, p. 200) but i t

a l s o may be used as an i n d i c a t o r of concentration (K. Deutsch, 1961). We

s h a l l t h e r e f o r e combine our a n a l y s i s of the s i z e and c o n c e n t r a t i o n of covert

support, i n order to avoid the r e p e t i t i o u s use of i n d i c a t o r s . The d i s c u s s i o n

can now t u r n to a rough o u t l i n e of the manner i n which we have used the var­

i a b l e s and i n d i c a t o r s provided by the l i t e r a t u r e to add content to our dimen­

sions of covert support.

S i z e and Concentration of Support. P u b l i c o p i n i o n s t u d i e s tend to emphasize

- 35 -

three a n a l y t i c a l c o n c e n t r a t i o n s . F i r s t , the context which o p i n i o n provides

fo r decision-making groups i s deemed important. J.N. Rosenau notes of the

'mass p u b l i c ' :

I t s only f u n c t i o n i s that of settin g , t h r o u g h the p o t e n t i a l i t y of i t s more a c t i v e moods, the outer l i m i t s w i t h i n which decision-makers and op i n i o n -makers f e e l constrained to operate and i n t e r a c t (1961, p. 36).

We s h a l l be i n t e r e s t e d i n t h i s focus i n s o f a r as i t helps us to determine

the s i z e of support. In order to d i s t i n g u i s h r e l e v a n t support, we s h a l l

add c r i t e r i a such as i n f l u e n c e (K.P. A d l e r and D. Bobrow, 1956, p. 90) to

the concept of the ' p u b l i c 1 . The second focus of p u b l i c o p i n i o n research

i s on the way opinions are c l u s t e r e d i n s o c i e t y through the mediation of

group and p o l i t i c a l p a r t y attachments. R.E. Lane and D.O. Sears o u t l i n e

t h i s view c o n c i s e l y :

Opinions c l u s t e r by groups: r e g i o n a l , n a t i o n a l o r i g i n , race, r e l i g i o n , u r b a n - r u r a l s t a t u s , and s o c i a l c l a s s or s t a t u s . ... P o l i t i c a l l y , one of the most important of these group's l o y a l t i e s i s l o y a l t y to a p o l i t i c a l p a r t y (1964, p. 2 ) .

We s h a l l use t h i s focus p r i m a r i l y as a means of adding content to our con­

c e n t r a t i o n dimension. I t w i l l a l s o be necessary to introduce i n d i c a t o r s of

p o l i t i c a l and economic development so that some statements regarding the d i s ­

p e r s i o n of covert support can be made. The t h i r d focus of o p i n i o n research

deals p a r t l y w i t h the content of o p i n i o n s — u s u a l l y an i s s u e - o r i e n t a t i o n —

and p a r t l y w i t h the v a r i a b l e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the i n t e n s i t y of opinion-hold­

i n g . Here, the focus i s u s e f u l f o r the i n t e n s i t y dimension although there

i s some overlap w i t h that of s i z e . This overlap i s l a r g e l y a f u n c t i o n of

the dual focus of t h i s t h i r d approach: the content of o p i n i o n i s analysed,

- 36 -

a t t r i b u t e s are assigned to i n d i v i d u a l s h o l d i n g c e r t a i n types of opinions,

and inferences are drawn concerning the st r e n g t h of the i n d i v i d u a l o p i n i o n

l i n k . I t should be emphasized that t h i s focus on opinions and t h e i r l i n k s

to i n d i v i d u a l s d i f f e r s from the a n a l y t i c a l u n i t s used i n the f o l l o w i n g chap­

t e r . Having made these p o i n t s , we can tu r n to the a n a l y s i s of the s i z e and

conce n t r a t i o n of covert support.

Before we can say anything i n t e l l i g e n t concerning the p o s i t i v e and

negative q u a l i t i e s of covert support, i t i s necessary to f i n d some means to

express the s i z e of the t o t a l o p i n i o n - h o l d i n g p o p u l a t i o n . I s there, f o r

example, a category which corresponds to the voting--non-voting d i s t i n c t i o n

to be made i n Chapter IV? Beginning at the p s y c h o l o g i c a l l e v e l , i t i s ap­

parent that n e a r l y a l l i n d i v i d u a l s c a r r y ' c o g n i t i v e maps' w i t h which they

o r i e n t themselves toward the p o l i t i c a l system and i t s contents (H. Hyman,

1959, p. 18; A. Campbell, et a l , 1960, pp. 59-63). I f we add an expressive

component to the c o g n i t i v e and e v a l u a t i v e set j u s t discussed, have we nar­

rowed the po p u l a t i o n i n a r e l e v a n t manner? H. Glickman (1959) st a t e s that

there are "at l e a s t as many p u b l i c s as there are issues of government" (p.

498). But he a l s o s t a t e s t h a t "people do not hol d opinions on a l l p u b l i c

issues unless they are a f f e c t e d by these i s s u e s " (p. 498). Taking is s u e and

op i n i o n memberships i n t o account, a rough measure of the op i n i o n - h o l d i n g

p o p u l a t i o n can be obtained by s u b t r a c t i n g the number of people who hold no

o p i n i o n on a l l issues from the t o t a l sample p o p u l a t i o n . Since the member­

ship represented i n the "no-opinion" or "don't know" category i s l i k e l y to

vary from i s s u e to i s s u e , the analyst might decide to judge t h i s dimension

i n terms of a s i n g l e i s s r e (M. Roth and G.R. Boynton, 1969, pp. 167-170).

Other i n d i c a t o r s can be used to represent the s i z e o f the op i n i o n - h o l d i n g

group. I f the v a r i a b l e s u n d e r l y i n g p o l i t i c a l development theory are useful-,

then i t can be p o s t u l a t e d that i n d i c a t o r s of awareness and w e l l - b e i n g may

represent the dimensions of covert support. S.M. L i p s e t ' s education index

(1960, p. 37) and the l i t e r a c y i n d i c a t o r p o s t u l a t e d by Almond and Powell

(1966, p. 200) serve as examples. Duff and McCamant 1s i n d i c e s of welfare

and m o b i l i z a t i o n (1968, pp. 1126-1132) may be placed i n the same pe r s p e c t i v e .

I t remains f o r the researcher to s t r a t i f y h i s p u b l i c p a r t i a l l y w i t h r e f e r ­

ence to the questions he i s asking and p a r t i a l l y w i t h reference to the

p a r t i c u l a r country i n which he i s working. For example, i f the % l i t e r a t e

i s used as an i n d i c a t o r of support s i z e i n developed c o u n t r i e s , very c l o s e

to 95 per cent of the adult p o p u l a t i o n w i l l be represented (I.K. Feierabend,

R.L. Feierabend, and B.A. Nesvold, 1969, p. 663). The same i n d i c a t o r used

i n a developing n a t i o n may produce values i n the 10 to 50 per cent range

(S.M. L i p s e t , 1960, p. 37). Much the same argument a p p l i e s to i n d i c a t o r s

such as newspaper c i r c u l a t i o n and ed u c a t i o n a l l e v e l a t t a i n e d , although these

i n d i c a t o r s d i s c r i m i n a t e somewhat b e t t e r between the developed c o u n t r i e s .

Values obtained on these l a t t e r i n d i c a t o r s i n developed c o u n t r i e s are l i k e l y

t o . f a l l i n the range of 30 to 60 per cent of the adult p o p u l a t i o n . I f we

add a l a r g e l y s u b j e c t i v e c r i t e r i o n and s p e c i f y ' q u a l i t y media' only, we can

reduce the s i z e of the o p i n i o n - h o l d i n g p o p u l a t i o n to some 10 per cent of the

adult members o f s o c i e t y (J.N. Rosenau, 1961, p. 82).

Another i n d i c a t o r of covert support s i z e f i n d s i t s source i n l i t e r ­

ature concerned w i t h group membership. Groups may serve as i d e n t i f i c a t i o n

u n i t s f o r i n d i v i d u a l s i n a s o c i e t y . Such groups may take stands on i s s u e s .

They might r a i s e some common c h a r a c t e r i s t i c — s u c h as race or socio-economic

s t a t u s — o f t h e i r members to p o l i t i c a l s a l i e n c e (eg. A. Kornhauser, et a l ,

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1956). These groups a l s o have communications and m o b i l i z a t i o n aspects. R.E.

Lane notes that groups increase "the o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r p o l i t i c a l d i s c u s s i o n

..." (1959, p. 76). On the other hand, groups may m o b i l i z e a membership of

v a r y i n g degrees of homogeneity. S o c i a l movements, f o r example, have r e l a ­

t i v e l y spontaneous ephemeral memberships (N.J. Smelser, 1962, Chapters 1 and

2 and p. 290 esp.); l i n g u i s t i c or communal groupings are l i k e l y to be longer-

l a s t i n g . The a n a l y s t must decide which groups are r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of h i s r e ­

search questions. For example, he might decide that the s i z e of covert sup­

port i s represented by the "members of p a r t i e s , trade unions, farm or business

o r g a n i z a t i o n s ..." (K. Deutsch, 1960, p. 54). Two perspectives are p o s s i b l e

i n the group approach, as i t r e l a t e s to covert support. The analyst can

s e l e c t the groups he considers necessary and estimate t h e i r membership. The

t o t a l membership of a l l groups s e l e c t e d then becomes covert support s i z e ,

u n d i f f e r e n t i a t e d as to p o s i t i v e or negative values as y e t . The value ob­

t a i n e d should then be standardized i n order to make i n t e r - s y s t e m i c compari­

son p o s s i b l e . Second, the group p e r s p e c t i v e can be used to y i e l d values f o r

our c o n c e n t r a t i o n dimension. I n general, we may s t a t e the f o l l o w i n g hypotheses:

1 The greater the congruence between group memberships and t o t a l a d u l t p o p u l a t i o n , the greater the s i z e of support.

2 The g r e a t e r the extent of group membership, the lower the concentration of support.

Depending upon the e f f e c t of c e r t a i n i n t e r v e n i n g v a r i a b l e s , low values on the

c o n c e n t r a t i o n dimension may or may not be associated w i t h high l e v e l s of sup­

port f o r the system. Before we can discuss the questions i m p l i e d by t h i s

r e l a t i o n s h i p , we must examine Easton's conception of covert support i n more

d e t a i l .

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Easton i s not concerned w i t h covert support jLn t o t o ; he i s much

more preoccupied w i t h e f f e c t i v e covert support. He s t a t e s : " ... when we

r e f e r to support, i t i s to the input of e f f e c t i v e support, those a t t i t u d e s

which members are ready and able to express i n overt and t h e r e f o r e t e l l i n g

behavior" (1965, (b), p. 168). We s h a l l ignore the i m p l i c a t i o n that overt

behavior i s e f f e c t i v e behavior, since the focus of e m p i r i c a l work w i t h t h i s

theory i s to determine whether or not v a r i a t i o n i n the dependent v a r i a b l e i s ,

i n f a c t , accompanied by v a r i a t i o n i n support. Analysing the remainder of the

statement, we f i n d the f o l l o w i n g components: the degree to which opinions

are expressed, the amount of resources a v a i l a b l e , the degree to which the

' s i t u a t i o n ' i s compatible w i t h o p i n i o n expression, and a l i n k between covert

and overt behavior. Above a l l , Easton i s concerned w i t h an expressive,

a c t i o n - o r i e n t e d p u b l i c . How does t h i s n o t i o n f i t i n t o conceptions of s t r a ­

t i f y i n g the p u b l i c ? In order to answer t h i s question we must grapple w i t h

the problem of combining the i n d i c a t o r s of i n t e r e s t and i n f o r m a t i o n , which

we discussed above, w i t h i n d i c a t o r s of i n f l u e n c e .

Using income, education and ' r o l e p o s i t i o n ' as h i s i n d i c a t o r s , G.A.

Almond (1950) d i s t i n g u i s h e s between those persons who are merely i n t e r e s t e d

and those who are i n t e r e s t e d and i n f l u e n t i a l . D e f i n i n g i n f l u e n c e as the ex­

tent to which i n d i v i d u a l s have "access to decision-makers or to p u b l i c s " and

the extent t o which the views of i n d i v i d u a l s r e c e i v e a t t e n t i o n from the t a r ­

gets of i n f l u e n c e , K.P. A d l e r and D. Bobrow (1956, p. 90) d i s t i n g u i s h between

those w i t h i n t e r e s t i n issues and those w i t h i n t e r e s t plus access. This

approach f i t s i n w e l l w i t h the group a n a l y s i s which we presented above, add­

ing t h a t membership i n p a r t i s a n groups i s p a r t i c u l a r l y important. To c a r r y

on somewhat f u r t h e r , we f i n d t h a t J.N. Rosenau (1961, pp. 35-45 esp.) makes

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a t h r e e - f o l d d i s t i n c t i o n concerning the o p i n i o n - h o l d i n g p o p u l a t i o n : (1) the

mass p u b l i c , c o n s t i t u t i n g some 75 to 90 per cent of the adult population;

(2) the a t t e n t i v e p u b l i c , c o n s t i t u t i n g some 5 t o 10 per cent; o p i n i o n makers,

who make up l e s s than 5 per cent of the a d u l t p o p u l a t i o n . The d i s t i n c t i o n s

between the f i r s t two groups are made l a r g e l y on the b a s i s of income and edu­

c a t i o n a l i n d i c a t o r s . The d i s t i n c t i o n between the f i r s t two groups and the i

t h i r d i s made by adding an access c r i t e r i o n (pp. 38-39 esp.). The question

now a r i s e s as to whether the s i z e of Rosenau's a t t e n t i v e p u b l i c plus the

opinion-making group corresponds to the membership of an 'expressive p u b l i c '

as envisaged by Easton. Some f i n d i n g s reported by Converse, Clause and

M i l l e r are r e l e v a n t here. T h e i r research i n the United States f i n d s t h a t : ...only about 15 per cent of the a d u l t p o p u l a t i o n r e p o r t s ever having w r i t t e n a l e t t e r t o a p u b l i c o f f i c i a l , and of the t o t a l stream of such l e t t e r s from the g r a s s - r o o t s , two-thirds are composed by about 3 per cent of the p o p u l a t i o n (1965, p. 333).

We can t h e r e f o r e conclude--given i n d i c a t o r s of access, education, income,

pa r t y membership and l e t t e r - w r i t i n g - - t h a t Easton i s concerned w i t h a very

small segment of s o c i e t y . Even i n an open, developed s o c i e t y , the f i g u r e

would be i n the range of 5 t o 20 per cent of the a d u l t p o p u l a t i o n . I t i s

t r u e of course i n open s o c i e t i e s , that opinions can be t r a n s l a t e d i n t o a c t i o n

through the medium of e l e c t i o n s , thereby g r e a t l y i n c r e a s i n g e f f e c t i v e support

s i z e . However, t h i s f o r m u l a t i o n crosses our a n a l y t i c a l boundary i n t o overt

support. I t must be discounted i f we are h e l d to a separate a n a l y s i s of the

two support types. One way i n which the s i z e of support can be enlarged

w h i l e remaining true to the separateness of covert support i s to analyze the

degree to which the a u t h o r i t i e s consider the p u b l i c r e l e v a n t . Surface i n d i ­

c a tors would i n c l u d e the percentage of the p o p u l a t i o n included by r u l e s of

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p o l i t i c a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n and the degree of congruence between demands and

outputs. We may add that decision-makers i n open p a r t i c i p a t o r y systems

tend to a t t r i b u t e more importance to the non-expressive p u b l i c ( i n our

terms),than do t h e i r counter-parts i n c l o s e d s o c i e t i e s . However, i t would

be a mistake to say that policy-makers i n developing or r e s t r i c t e d systems

are u n r e s t r i c t e d ; i t would a l s o be i n c o r r e c t to s t a t e that policy-makers

i n open s o c i e t i e s are o v e r l y , r e s t r i c t e d . In the l a t t e r case, studies i n ­

d i c a t e t h a t agreement e x i s t s among 70 to 90 per cent of the p o p u l a t i o n on

general p r i n c i p l e s , which s p e c i f i c p o l i c y - o r i e n t e d issues are not agreed

upon t o any s i g n i f i c a n t extent (J.W. Prothro and CM. Grigg, 1960; P.E.

Converse, 1964). I n the case of closed s o c i e t i e s , c u l t u r a l values and the

values of e l i t e support groups exert a r e s t r i c t i n g i n f l u e n c e . L.A. Free

notes of policy-makers i n these s o c i e t i e s :

They are members of t h e i r own s o c i e t y and they share many, i f not most, of the common assump­t i o n s — a n d hence a t t i t u d e s — o n fundamentals i n ­volved i n whatever consensuses e x i s t i n that s o c i e t y , i f only among i t s e l i t e (1969, p. 220).

On the b a s i s of t h i s d i s c u s s i o n we can conclude that Easton's conception of

covert support a p p l i e s t o a very small segment of the p o p u l a t i o n . In those

systems i n which b e h a v i o r a l 'withinputs' predominate—access and p a r t i c i p a ­

t i o n are r e s t r i c t e d — t h e s i z e of covert support i n t h i s view i s l i k e l y to

be very s m a l l . The s i z e and c o n c e n t r a t i o n values can be r a i s e d by reference

to decision-makers and t h e i r perception of the r e l e v a n t p u b l i c .

We can extend t h i s argument somewhat by dropping the requirement

t h a t covert support be expressed i n opinion-form. In so doing, we are drop­

ping to the l e v e l of a n a l y s i n g a t t i t u d i n a l o r i e n t a t i o n s toward the p o l i t i c a l

system. We contend t h a t , i n the developed, open s o c i e t i e s f o r which Easton's

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scheme i s most a p p l i c a b l e , attachments are l a r g e l y i n s t r u m e n t a l f o r the

a u t h o r i t i e s and p o s s i b l y the regime. Fo l l o w i n g t h i s conception, the i n ­

d i v i d u a l i s attached r a t i o n a l l y to the performance of the a u t h o r i t i e s . He

extends support l a r g e l y because of b e n e f i t s r e c e i v e d and b e n e f i t s expected.

This conforms to Easton's conception of ' s p e c i f i c support'--the support ex­

tended f o r s p e c i f i c p o l i c y outputs (1965, (b), pp. 267 f f . ) . The i n d i v i d ­

u a l may a l s o be attached i n s t r u m e n t a l l y t o the regime. H. Kelman presents

two u s e f u l hypotheses concerning the in s t r u m e n t a l attachment of the i n d i v i d ­

u a l to the regime:

1 ' ( I n d i v i d u a l s ) ... are attached to the n a t i o n a l system because they see i t as a u s e f u l means t o ­ward the performance of t h e i r o c c u p a t i o n a l r o l e s , t h e i r community r o l e s , and r o l e s i n v a r i o u s other subsystems;

2 the i n d i v i d u a l ... i s attached to the n a t i o n a l system because i t i s the a r b i t e r of o r d e r l y and c o n s i s t e n t procedures' (1969, pp. 281-283).

On the other hand, the framework w i t h i n which b e n e f i t exchanges take place

may produce semi-sentimental attachments. I n a r a t i o n a l i s t i c sense, t h i s

conforms l a r g e l y to d i f f u s e support as envisaged by Easton (1965, (b),

Chapters 17-21). But i f Easton's conception i s l a r g e l y a p p l i c a b l e to systems

i n which p o l i t i c a l exchanges are l a r g e l y i n s t r u m e n t a l , and i n which p o l i t i c a l

preferences can be expressed, what do we do i n the case of systems which do

not possess these q u a l i t i e s ? A. Zolberg h i g h l i g h t s t h i s c r i t i c i s m as f o l l o w s :

I t (Easton's theory) t e l l s us very l i t t l e about the v i t a l problem before us, namely, what the p o l i t i c a l system of an unintegrated country i s l i k e , and tends to gloss over the f a c t that even the i n d i v i d u a l s who are not 'mobilized' p a r t i c i p a t e i n p o l i t i c s of some so r t (1966, p. 231, i t a l i c s i n o r i g i n a l ) .

Zolberg makes an a d d i t i o n a l point i n the case of West A f r i c a n s t a t e s .

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He p o s t u l a t e s that these developing s o c i e t i e s are c h a r a c t e r i z e d by discon­

t i n u i t i e s between the boundaries of the formal p o l i t i c a l apparatus and the

boundary of the p o l i t i c a l system, n a t i o n a l l y conceived. In most developed

s t a t e s the formal p o l i t i c a l network has a boundary c o i n c i d e n t a l , or n e a r l y

so, w i t h the boundary of the p o l i t i c a l system. I n the type of system d i s ­

cussed by Zolberg, there i s a modernizing sector and a t r a d i t i o n a l s e c t o r .

A m a j o r i t y of the p o p u l a t i o n p a r t i c i p a t e s l a r g e l y i n terms of the t r a d i ­

t i o n a l s e c t o r , and only a small segment p a r t i c i p a t e s at the n a t i o n a l l e v e l .

One might say t h e r e f o r e that the m a j o r i t y of the population i n the system

of t h i s type does not extend e f f e c t i v e , a c t i o n - o r i e n t e d covert support to

the n a t i o n a l system. The support-system r e l a t i o n s h i p r e s t s at a l a t e n t ,

v i c a r i o u s l e v e l . As L. Pye notes:

In most t r a d i t i o n a l s o c i e t i e s an important f u n c t i o n of the e l i t e was to provide enter­tainment and m a t e r i a l f o r d i s c u s s i o n f o r the common people,but the people d i d not discuss the a c t i v i t i e s of the e l i t e i n any expecta­t i o n that d i s c u s s i o n should lead t o a c t i o n

(1966, p. 526).

We can f u r t h e r argue that any i n s t r u m e n t a l attachments that e x i s t i n t h i s

type of system l i e at the l e v e l of the l o c a l community. Most of the s e n t i ­

mental attachments are a l s o at t h i s l e v e l and they f i n d t h e i r sources i n the

n u c l e a r f a m i l y , k i n s h i p groupings and patronage exchanges (M.A. Straus and

S. Cytrynbaum, 1962; R. Cohen, 1962, pp. 98-104 esp.). Much of t h i s s e n t i ­

mental attachment takes i t s cues from c u l t u r a l l y - o r i e n t e d 'in-group', 'out-

group' images. Owing to t h i s f a c t , covert support extended to the m o b i l i z e d

sector of the system i s l i k e l y to be a product of attempts by the m o b i l i z e d

sector to frame appeals i n terms of symbolic references i d e n t i f y i n g the n a t i o n

w i t h the l o c a l community. One consequence of t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p may be that

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covert support w i l l be extended to the m o b i l i z e d sector only i f there i s a

h i g h l e v e l of e x p e c t a t i o n that leaders " w i l l seek to maximize a l l the i n t e r ­

e s t s of a l l the members of the group and not j u s t seek to advance p a r t i c u l a r

p o l i c i e s " (L.W. Pye, 1966, p. 522).

We have come con s i d e r a b l y f a r a f i e l d from our o r i g i n a l d i s c u s s i o n ,

but the d i g r e s s i o n seems to be j u s t i f i e d i n terms of i t s i m p l i c a t i o n f o r our

argument. We have i m p l i e d that covert support may be most u s e f u l i n the con­

t e x t of developing systems. I n these systems, r e s t r i c t i o n s on access and

p a r t i c i p a t i o n and impediments placed on a c t i o n s by c u l t u r a l norms may w e l l

r e l e g a t e b e h a v i o r a l support to a continuously low l e v e l . Outward apathy be­

comes the norm. A r e v i s e d v e r s i o n of Easton's e f f e c t i v e , covert support

n o t i o n seems to be most a p p l i c a b l e to e x p l a i n v a r i a t i o n i n the dependent var­

i a b l e — s t r e s s . I n d i c a t o r s of r e s t r i c t i o n s on p a r t i c i p a t i o n and access,

economic development,literacy and e d u c a t i o n a l attainment should be used to

determine the degree to which i n d i v i d u a l s are m o b i l i z e d . Low values on ob­

j e c t i v e m o b i l i z a t i o n i n d i c a t o r s w i l l probably produce hig h values on the

c o n c e n t r a t i o n dimension and low values on the s i z e dimension. Given t h i s

premise, the a n a l y s t may confine h i s study to the opinions of e l i t e group­

ings. Or he may take i n t o account a l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n of the s o c i e t y by

examining the extent t o which unmobilized members hol d sentimental a t t a c h ­

ments f o r the n a t i o n a l system.

P o s i t i v e and Negative Covert Support:. T h e i r Connection w i t h I n t e n s i t y . In

order t o d e a l i n greater depth w i t h covert support, we must ask what means

are a v a i l a b l e to d i s t i n g u i s h between p o s i t i v e and negative covert support.

In an e f f o r t to d e a l w i t h t h i s problem, we s h a l l i n f e r p o s i t i v e and nega-

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t i v e o p i n i o n - h o l d i n g from three o r i e n t a t i o n s f o r which i n d i c a t o r s can be

constructed. The f i r s t o r i e n t a t i o n i s l a b e l l e d ' e f f i c a c y ' and i s considered

to c o n s t i t u t e p o s i t i v e covert support. The second o r i e n t a t i o n i s l a b e l l e d

'apathy'. I t i s considered to be a n e u t r a l p o s i t i o n , although some e v i ­

dence shows that such a conception i s not without f a u l t s . The t h i r d pos­

ture i s l a b e l l e d ' a l i e n a t i o n ' and i t i s considered to be negative covert

support. We s h a l l combine t h i s above a n a l y s i s w i t h our d i s c u s s i o n of the

i n t e n s i t y of covert support, since to do otherwise would r e s u l t i n the need­

l e s s r e p e t i t i o n of i n d i c a t o r s .

E f f i c a c y i s a l i n k between an i n d i v i d u a l ' s p s y c h o - c u l t u r a l composi­

t i o n and p o l i t i c a l behavior. One group of a n a l y s t s define the concept as

f o l l o w s :

E f f i c a c y i s the f e e l i n g that i n d i v i d u a l p o l i t i c a l a c t i o n does have or can have an impact on the p o l i t i c a l process, i . e . , that i t i s worthwhile to perform one's c i v i c d u t i e s . I t i s the f e e l i n g that s o c i a l change i s p o s s i b l e , and that the i n ­d i v i d u a l c i t i z e n can p l a y a part i n b r i n g about t h i s change (A. Campbell, et a l , 1954, p. 187).

Given the above d e f i n i t i o n , s e v e r a l i n d i r e c t i n d i c a t o r s may be used to re­

present t h i s o r i e n t a t i o n . We suggest i n d i r e c t i n d i c a t o r s f o r those researchers

who have l i m i t e d resources; survey methods could a l s o be used on a l i m i t e d

s c a l e by such a person, but n a t i o n a l sampling would seem to be precluded. High

values on an education index or on an income index would be a s sociated w i t h

h i g h l e v e l s of e f f i c a c y i n most instances (R.E. Lane, 1959, pp. 147-155; R.

E. Agger, M.N. G o l d s t e i n , and S.A. P e a r l , 1961; R.E. Lane, 1965), Some re­

search f i n d i n g s show that a high l e v e l of u r b a n i z a t i o n (metropolitan popula­

t i o n over 500P00) i s a l s o an i n d i c a t o r of h i g h l e v e l s of e f f i c a c y (E. L i t t ,

- 46 -

1963). This l a t t e r f i n d i n g should be regarded w i t h c a u t i o n , however, since

socio-economic status as an i n t e r v e n i n g v a r i a b l e may d r a s t i c a l l y reduce such

a p o s i t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h place of residence (A. Malewski, 1963; K.D. K e l l y

and W.J. Chambliss, 1966). Age i s i n v e r s e l y r e l a t e d , as an i n d i c a t o r , to

e f f i c a c y : the o l d e r the i n d i v i d u a l , the l e s s e f f i c a c i o u s he f e e l s (R.E. Lane,

1959, p. 151). Sex i s a l s o r e l a t e d to a sense of e f f i c a c y , w i t h men having

higher l e v e l s of e f f i c a c y than women a f t e r age 16 (S. Rokkan and A. Campbell,

1960). We can a l s o examine p o s i t i v e covert support from a s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t

p e r s p e c t i v e , s p e c i f i c a l l y from the viewpoint of ' t r u s t ' . Trust i s r e l a t e d to

e f f i c a c y i n the sense that e f f i c a c y i s u s u a l l y accompanied by f e e l i n g s of

t r u s t i n the system. The i n d i c a t o r s that were discussed above may a l s o be

used to estimate the degree to which a sense of t r u s t e x i s t s i n the p o l i t i c a l

system's p o p u l a t i o n (R.E. Agger, M.N. G o l d s t e i n , and S.A. P e a r l , 1961). Trust

i n the system may a l s o be i n f e r r e d from an examination of the type of s o c i a l ­

i z a t i o n p a t t e r n and the degree to which i t i s s u c c e s s f u l . High l e v e l s of

t r u s t may r e s u l t from the complete success of s o c i a l i z a t i o n patterns which

i n c u l c a t e complete dependence on systemic outputs. Trust of t h i s type con­

forms w i t h the p a r o c h i a l - s u b j e c t p a t t e r n described by Almond and Verba (1963,

pp. 17-26). I n d i v i d u a l s i n such a s o c i e t y would have low l e v e l s of personal

e f f i c a c y , and h i g h l e v e l s of s u s p i c i o n f o r the world around them. They would

tend to take most of t h e i r cues from the a u t h o r i t i e s and they would have a

h i g h l e v e l of sentimental attachment f o r the p o l i t i c a l system. F i n a l l y , the

success of the s o c i a l i z a t i o n process can be i n d i c a t e d by the number of deviant

members per age group (R.F. Fenno, J r . , 1962).

We s h a l l examine three i n d i c a t o r s of p o s i t i v e support i n t e n s i t y .

They are: the l e v e l of education, the degree and d i r e c t i o n of p a r t i s a n s h i p ,

- 47 -

and the l e v e l of p o l i t i c a l concern. The general hypotheses concerning the

l e v e l of education i s : the greater the e d u c a t i o n a l l e v e l a t t a i n e d , the

greater the i n t e n s i t y of o p i n i o n - h o l d i n g (R.E. Lane and D.O. Sears, 1964,

p. 99). A h i g h l e v e l of e d u c a t i o n a l attainment convinces the i n d i v i d u a l

of the v a l i d i t y of h i s opinions and the s t r e n g t h w i t h which he holds them

i s thereby increased. This r e l a t i o n s h i p should be regarded w i t h c a u t i o n ,

however. Low l e v e l s of education may a l s o c o i n c i d e w i t h a high degree of

o p i n i o n - h o l d i n g i n t e n s i t y . I n t e r e s t i s combined w i t h c o n v i c t i o n , without

the mediating l i n k formed by knowledge. S.M. L i p s e t remarks:

The s o c i a l system of the lower s t r a t a , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n poorer c o u n t r i e s w i t h low l e v e l s of education, predisposes them to view p o l i t i c s as black and white, good and e v i l (1960, p. 90).

The l a c k of knowledge m i l i t a t e s against a d i f f e r e n t i a t e d view of p o l i t i c s

and f a c i l i t a t e s a r e l i a n c e on the ' a u t h o r i t a t i v e a l l o c a t i o n of values'; to

t u r n Easton's phrase somewhat d i f f e r e n t l y . I n general, one can conclude

that i f the i n t e n s i t y of o p i n i o n - h o l d i n g i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h h i g h l e v e l s of

education, then p o s i t i v e covert support w i l l be g r e a t e r . Party i d e n t i f i c a ­

t i o n a l s o c o n t r i b u t e s to covert support i n t e n s i t y and the nature of the

party i s c r u c i a l . I f the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n i s w i t h an 'anti-system' party,then

the i n t e n s i t y of o p i n i o n i s l i k e l y to be high. I f the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n i s w i t h

a party which draws the m a j o r i t y of i t s support from a s i n g l e cleavage base,

or from a r e i n f o r c e d s e t , then o p i n i o n i n t e n s i t y i s l i k e l y to be high. ' A n t i -

system' party i d e n t i f i c a t i o n s are l i k e l y to c o n t r i b u t e towards the t o t a l

amount of negative covert support; i d e n t i f i c a t i o n w i t h s p l i n t e r p a r t i e s and

w i t h s i n g l e - c l e a v a g e base p a r t i e s i s l i k e l y to c o n t r i b u t e to low l e v e l s of

p o s i t i v e covert support. I f a l l the p a r t i e s i n the system can be c l a s s i f i e d

i n e i t h e r of these two c a t e g o r i e s above, then t o t a l covert support f o r the

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p o l i t i c a l system i s l i k e l y to be low. On the other hand, i f the i d e n t i f i c a ­

t i o n i s w i t h 'pro-system' p a r t i e s , then the l e v e l of p o s i t i v e covert support

i s l i k e l y to be high. T o t a l support w i l l depend upon the degree t o which

e i t h e r p o s i t i v e or negative support predominates.

F i n a l l y , we must consider the e f f e c t of concern on the degree of

support i n t e n s i t y . Lane and Sears s t a t e t h a t : "Concern i m p l i e s that there

i s some value at stake i n a s i t u a t i o n , some g a i n i n a p r e f e r r e d outcome ..."

(1964, p. 96). Preferences may be f o r p o l i c i e s , candidates, or i s s u e s ; pre­

ferences may be for the objects of the system: the a u t h o r i t i e s , the regime,

and the p o l i t i c a l community. I f we assume that a l t e r n a t i v e s e x i s t f o r a l l

preference s e t s , we can make the f o l l o w i n g hypotheses. I f the l e v e l of con­

cern increases f o r a l l preference a l t e r n a t i v e s , then covert support i n t e n ­

s i t y i n c r e a s e s . I f the l e v e l of concern i s e q u a l l y h i g h f o r a l l a l t e r n a ­

t i v e s , then t o t a l covert support i s l i k e l y to be low. Conversely, i f con­

cern i s not equal f o r a l l preferences, then t r a d e - o f f s are p o s s i b l e and covert

support may increase (G. T u l l o c k , 1967, pp. 57-61). Concern seems most a p p l i ­

cable t o p o s i t i v e covert support, although the e f f e c t of a high l e v e l of con­

cern may have negative consequences ( c f . H. McClosky, P.J. Hoffman, and R.

O'Hara, 1960, pp. 425-427 esp.).

Turning t o the question of apathy, we f i n d t h a t i t may be defined

as i n d i f f e r e n c e t o the system (D. Bwy, 1968, p. 30). This f e e l i n g of i n d i f ­

ference i s

. . . a f u n c t i o n e i t h e r of a lack o f i n t e r e s t — whether i t i s simple i n d i f f e r e n c e or stems ra t h e r from a sense of f u t i l i t y - a b o u t the p r a c t i c a l pros­pects of securing o b v i o u s l y d e s i r a b l e changes — or of the s a t i s f a c t i o n o f whatever i n t e r e s t the quiescent group may have i n the p o l i c y i n question (M. Edelman, 1960, p. 695).

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I t would seem, by r e f e r r i n g to the above quotation, that i n d i f f e r e n c e i s

probably i n d i c a t e d by low values on an e d u c a t i o n - l e v e l index, on an income

index, and on a 'number of group memberships' index. The r e l a t i o n s h i p may

not be t h i s simple, however. Agger,Goldstein and P e a r l point out t h a t , i n

t h e i r sample p o p u l a t i o n , "the p o l i t i c a l l y c y n i c a l among the h i g h l y educated

are almost completely i n a c t i v e " (1961, p. 496). L.W. Pye (1966, pp. 525-

528) confirms a hypothesis made by M. Rosenberg (1956, p. 166) by n o t i n g

that groups i n some modernizing c o u n t r i e s pursue apathy as a p o s i t i v e group

norm. They do so l a r g e l y to avoid the i n t e r f e r e n c e of the a u t h o r i t i e s i n

t h e i r d a i l y a c t i v i t i e s . We can take note of two f u r t h e r f a c t o r s which may

produce apathy: a) the i n a b i l i t y t o pursue d e s i r e d p o l i t i c i e s ; (b) a de­

pendence on symbolic outputs. I n the f i r s t case,apathy may be a r e s u l t of

i n s u f f i c i e n t resources — such as education, o c c u p a t i o n a l s k i l l s , or group

memberships. To complicate the p i c t u r e s t i l l more, the i n a c t i v i t y may be

a product of a s u b j e c t i v e or o b j e c t i v e set of f a c t o r s . The i n d i v i d u a l may

possess enough s k i l l s to preclude apathy, but h i s p e r c e p t i o n of the p e r f o r ­

mance l e v e l r e q u i r e d may be f a u l t y (M. Rosenberg, 1956, pp. 164-165). A l t e r ­

n a t i v e l y , the i n a b i l i t y to pursue d e s i r e d goals p o l i t i c a l l y may be a product

of h i g h p a r t i c i p a t o r y and access t h r e s h o l d s . Here the a n a l y s t must examine

the o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r opinion-expression, excluding behaviors. Are group

members r e s t r i c t e d , f o r example? Newspaper c i r c u l a t i o n and the type of news­

papers a v a i l a b l e may be used as reasonable i n d i c a t o r s o f the 'openness' of

expression. The number of p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s could a l s o be used,although t h i s

c a l c u l a t i o n may not be d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d to the expressiveness of s o c i e t a l

d i v i s i o n s . In the second case mentioned above, i n d i v i d u a l s may remain a p a t h e t i c

i n order "to gain both the symbolic rewards of government a c t i o n and the a c t u a l

- 50 -

rewards w i t h which government o r i g i n a l l y a s s o c i a t e d i t s e l f " (R. Merelman,

1966, p. 551). One would suspect that systems which have a low d i s t r i b u ­

t i v e power may remain unstressed i f there i s a h i g h l e v e l of sentimental

attachment to the system's symbolic outputs (M. Edelman, 1960; H. F e i t h ,

1963). F i n a l l y , i t should be noted that we w i l l omit any c a l c u l a t i o n of

the i n t e n s i t y of apathy,even though such an e x e r c i s e may w e l l be u s e f u l to

determine the q u a n t i t y of p o t e n t i a l support a v a i l a b l e .

The t h i r d and f i n a l part of t h i s a n a l y s i s deals w i t h a l i e n a t i o n .

A l i e n a t i o n i s regarded as d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h : the performance of the

a u t h o r i t i e s , the r u l e s w i t h i n which p o l i t i c s are conducted, and the e x i s t ­

ing l e v e l of p o l i t i c a l s a l i e n c e . I t i s expected that a l i e n a t i o n at i t s

l e a s t negative pole blends w i t h the type of apathy induced n e g a t i v e l y - - f r o m

a sense of f u t i l i t y of a c h i e v i n g d e s i r e d goals (N.R. Maier, 1942). The

Feierabend's S o c i a l Want Formation/Social Want S a t i s f a c t i o n Index (1966,

p. 250) i s r e l e v a n t here. The number and type of group memberships which

an i n d i v i d u a l holds may be c r u c i a l i n an e s t i m a t i o n of a l i e n a t i o n i n t e n s i t y .

The i n d i v i d u a l who belongs to a s i n g l e group which r e i n f o r c e s h i s sense of

f r u s t r a t i o n through i t s p o s i t i o n on i s s u e s , through i t s f a i l u r e to occupy

a u t h o r i t y r o l e s , or through i t s f a i l u r e to l i v e up to expectations w h i l e

a c t u a l l y i n o f f i c e , i s l i k e l y to be h i g h l y a l i e n a t e d . The same i n t e n s i t y

l e v e l is l i k e l y to o b t a i n f o r the person who belongs to d i f f e r e n t s t atus

groups,and who perceives a gap between h i s a c t u a l rewards and those a s c r i b e d

to h i s status p o s i t i o n by s o c i e t a l norms (G. L e n s k i , 1956;L. F e s t i n g e r , 1961).

For example, persons who have values on an education index and low values on

an income index are l i k e l y to have moderate to high l e v e l s of a l i e n a t i o n i n ­

t e n s i t y (R.E. Lane, 1959, pp. 232-233). I t should be p o s s i b l e f o r the r e -

searcher to c a l c u l a t e the t o t a l membership i n groups s i m i l a r to those d i s ­

cussed above and thereby o b t a i n a rough estimate of negative support s i z e .

He can a l s o compare the l o c a t i o n of negative support groups w i t h that of

e f f i c a c i o u s and a p a t h e t i c groups i n order to o b t a i n a measure of negative

support c o n c e n t r a t i o n . Two f u r t h e r observations should be made regarding

negative support. Some evidence e x i s t s to support the hypothesis t h a t a

lack of group memberships may a l s o lead to a high degree of a l i e n a t i o n i n ­

t e n s i t y . Persons who detach themselves from ' n o n - p o l i t i c a l ' groups which

demand strong i d e n t i f i c a t i o n from t h e i r members are l i k e l y to be i n t e n s e l y

a l i e n a t e d . Work c a r r i e d out by J.W. El d e r (1966) i n Southeast A s i a shows

that detachments from r e l i g i o u s groups o f t e n leads to anomic behavior and

a strong sense of a l i e n a t i o n . A s i m i l a r hypothesis i s confirmed i n the

L a t i n American context- i n a recent study by G. Soares and R.L. Hamblin

(1967). The second point to be noted i s that a high l e v e l of perceived

t h r e a t i s l i k e l y to produce hi g h l e v e l s of op i n i o n - h o l d i n g i n t e n s i t y . I t

i s important to take i n t o account the s i z e of the group threatened as w e l l

as the s i z e of the 'enemy1. I t i s a l s o important to take note of the type

of t h r e a t i n v o l v e d . I t might be expected that the smaller the r e l a t i v e s i z e

of the threatened group, the greater the i n t e n s i t y of p o s i t i v e support ex­

tended by group members to the group. Support extended by group members

f o r the system i s a l s o l i k e l y to be low. I t i s a l s o important to take note

of the type of t h r e a t i n v o l v e d . R e l i g i o u s issues are l i k e l y to in v o l v e

h i g h l y intense f e e l i n g s , as are l i n g u i s t i c and r a c i a l i s s u e s . Economic

iss u e s are u n l i k e l y to i n v o l v e intense o p i n i o n - h o l d i n g , as long as economic

development preceeds the p o l i t i c i z a t i o n of economic issues (R. Rose and D.

Urwin, 1969).

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In c o n c l u s i o n , i t i s necessary to warn the researcher that the use

of the same i n d i c a t o r of a l i e n a t i o n i n d i f f e r e n t systems of d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s

of development may lead to spurious r e s u l t s . For example, i n the United

S t a t e s , the s i z e of the place o f residence i s a good i n d i c a t o r of the l e v e l

of a l i e n a t i o n . I n the American experience, the smaller the number of i n ­

h a b i t a n t s per residence area, the higher the l e v e l of a l i e n a t i o n , i f c l a s s

i n d i c a t o r s are he l d constant (L. K i l l i a n and G. Grigg, 1962). In developing

systems, the use of such an i n d i c a t o r glosses over the r e l a t i o n s h i p being i n ­

v e s t i g a t e d . In such systems, a more s e n s i t i v e i n d i c a t o r would be one which

represents the d i s l o c a t i o n of r u r a l groups: the annual 7o increase i n the

number of i n h a b i t a n t s per urban area. Some hypotheses can be suggested to

summarize the fo r m u l a t i o n discussed i n t h i s chapter.

1. The greater the p o s i t i v e numerical d i f f e r e n c e between p o s i t i v e and negative support memberships,the greater the degree of covert support;

2. Conversely, the greater the negative numerical d i f f e r ­ence between p o s i t i v e and negative support memberships, the lower the degree of covert support;

3. I f the m a j o r i t y of the population can be c l a s s i f i e d as a p a t h e t i c and the remainder can be c l a s s i f i e d as p o s i t i v e support,then t o t a l covert support i s l i k e ­l y to be concentrated and high;

4. I f the m a j o r i t y of the popu l a t i o n can be c l a s s i f i e d as a p a t h e t i c and the remainder can be c l a s s i f i e d as negative support,then t o t a l covert support i s l i k e ­l y to be concentrated and low;

5. I f the system's population can be d i v i d e d i n t o an apa t h e t i c m a j o r i t y and the remainder can be d i v i d e d i n t o two equal bodies of p o s i t i v e and negative covert support, then t o t a l covert support i s l i k e l y to be low.

The above hypotheses assume that equal resources are a v a i l a b l e to the groups

and that there i s an equal i n t e n s i t y of op i n i o n - h o l d i n g at both ends of the

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p o s i t i v e - n e g a t i v e support continuum. I f the i n t e n s i t y of support i s added,

then the f o l l o w i n g hypotheses seem r e l e v a n t :

1. I f p o s i t i v e covert support i s predominant, and i f t h i s support i s intense, then t o t a l covert support i s l i k e l y to be high;

2. I f negative covert support predominates, and t h i s support i s intense, then t o t a l covert support i s l i k e l y to be low;

3. I f the m a j o r i t y of the population i s a p a t h e t i c , and i f the m i n o r i t y holds p o s i t i v e opinions i n ­t e n s e l y , then covert support i s l i k e l y to be moderately high;

4. I f the m a j o r i t y of the popu l a t i o n i s a p a t h e t i c , and i f the m i n o r i t y holds negative opinions i n ­t e n s e l y , then covert support i s l i k e l y to be low ( c f . R.A. Dahl, 1956, pp. 90-110);

5. I f the m a j o r i t y of the popu l a t i o n i s i n t e n s e l y p o s i t i v e , and the m i n o r i t y i s a p a t h e t i c , then covert support i s l i k e l y to be high;

6. I f the m a j o r i t y of the population i s i n t e n s e l y p o s i t i v e , and the m i n o r i t y i s i n t e n s e l y negative, then covert support i s l i k e l y to be low to moder­ate.

CHAPTER IV

OVERT SUPPORT

I t i s d i f f i c u l t to confront a macro-theory of p o l i t i c a l l i f e and

not l o s e touch w i t h the p o l i t i c a l behavior one i s attempting to e x p l a i n or

desc r i b e . The purpose o f t h i s chapter i s to put the concept of overt p o l i t i ­

c a l support i n contact w i t h bodies of data. The f i r s t part of the chapter

w i l l develop a gross f o r m u l a t i o n of overt support. The second, and most

ext e n s i v e , p o r t i o n w i l l fragment t h i s crude a n a l y s i s by d i f f e r e n t i a t i n g be­

tween c l u s t e r s of v a r i a b l e s and by i n c r e a s i n g the r e s t r i c t i o n s on the d i s ­

c u s s i o n . While there are s e v e r a l ways to break i n t o the t h e o r y - i n d i c a t o r

' c i r c l e ' , the d i s c u s s i o n w i l l begin with an o u t l i n e of the assumptions under

which the f i r s t p o r t i o n . o f the argument w i l l operate.

I n i t i a l Assumptions. In the crude argument developed below, i t i s assumed

that the l e v e l of a n a l y s i s i s i r r e l e v a n t . While i t may a s s i s t the reader

to t h i n k i n terms of the n a t i o n a l l e v e l of a n a l y s i s , the construct a p p l i e s

e q u a l l y w e l l at the l o c a l and r e g i o n a l l e v e l s . Secondly, we s h a l l assume

that the objects of support are u n d i f f e r e n t i a t e d . That i s to say, support

i s f o r the 'system' i n general w i t h no regard f o r the community, regime or

a u t h o r i t i e s . T h i r d , the d u r a t i o n of support i s l e f t aside f o r the moment.

Our only d e s i r e i s to take a photograph of the system at one i n s t a n t of

ope r a t i o n . A l s o , we are assuming that resources a v a i l a b l e to the p a r t i c i ­

pants can be l e f t aside f o r the present. F i n a l l y , the content of the cate­

g o r i e s below i s i m p l i c i t l y biased towards p o l i t i c a l systems of moderate to

hi g h p o l i t i c a l development i n terms of p a r t i c i p a t i o n (S.M. L i p s e t , 1960; P.

C u t r i g h t , 1963). Later i n the chapter, some attempt w i l l be made to set up

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non-exhaustive c a t e g o r i e s of behavior f o r systems which show few t r a c e s of

'democratic' p a r t i c i p a t o r y behavior. Before continuing to our i n i t i a l char­

a c t e r i z a t i o n of support, i t i s necessary to comment b r i e f l y on the method of

a n a l y s i s i n i t i a l l y employed.

For the purposes of the i n i t i a l d i s c u s s i o n behavior w i l l be c l a s s i ­

f i e d dichotomously--as supportive and non-supportive--using a r a t h e r conven­

t i o n a l framework. A l a r g e body of p o l i t i c a l science l i t e r a t u r e holds the

i m p l i c i t or e x p l i c i t assumption that p o l i t i c a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n a conventional

manner c o n s t i t u t e s support f o r the p o l i t i c a l system (H.J. S p i r o , 1962; L.W.

M i l b r a t h , 1965; and K. Deutsch, 1966). Conversely, unconventional p a r t i c i p a ­

t i o n c o n s t i t u t e s negative support. Easton seems to f o l l o w t h i s l o g i c when

he argues f o r a r a t i o of l e g i t i m a t e a c t i v i t i e s to deviant a c t i v i t i e s as a

measure of p o l i t i c a l support (1965, (b), p. 163). The c r u c i a l assumption i s

that persons who perceive the e x i s t i n g system as a means f o r o b t a i n i n g t h e i r

g o a ls, w i l l p a r t i c i p a t e i n a c t i v i t y considered conventional w i t h i n that sys­

tem. On the other hand, persons who p a r t i c i p a t e u nconventionally are consid­

ered to regard the p o l i t i c a l system as u n s a t i s f a c t o r y . Such a c t i v i t y can

t h e r e f o r e be c a l l e d non-supportive, f a l l i n g as i t does outside the area pre­

s c r i b e d by accepted p o l i t i c a l norms. While such a d i v i s i o n of a c t i v i t y ob­

scures and,.indeed, ignores many of the f i n e r p o i n t s of support a n a l y s i s , i t

c o n s t i t u t e s a u s e f u l point of departure f o r our d i s c u s s i o n . F i n a l l y , i t

should be recognized that the i n i t i a l s e p a ration of behaviors i n t o the two

categories i s l a r g e l y i n t u i t i v e . The d e f i n i t i o n a l c r i t e r i a , w h i l e not neces­

sary f o r t h i s p o r t i o n of the a n a l y s i s , appear i n Appendix I .

I

Conventional versus Unconventional Behavior: A Point of Departure. L.W. M i l -

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bra t h (1960; 1965, p. 18) sets out an extensive l i s t of conventional p a r t i c i ­

p a t i o n . The l i s t , h i e r a r c h i c a l l y ordered from those behaviors p a r t i c i p a t e d

i n most o f t e n to those p a r t i c i p a t e d i n l e a s t o f t e n , i s conside r a b l y biased

toward Western democratic c r i t e r i a of p o l i t i c a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n . Despite t h i s

b i a s , the l i s t w i l l be adopted w i t h our a d d i t i o n of 'tax-paying' and l a b e l l e d

supportive behavior f o r the purposes of t h i s a n a l y s i s . The l i s t of unconven-

TABLE 4: 1

SUPPORTIVE AND NON-SUPPORTIVE BEHAVIORS

Supportive Behaviors Non-Supportive Behaviors

Holding p u b l i c and party o f f i c e Being a candidate f o r o f f i c e S o l i c i t i n g p o l i t i c a l funds Attending a caucus or st r a t e g y meeting Becoming an a c t i v e member of a p o l i t i c a l p a r t y C o n t r i b u t i n g time i n a p o l i t i c a l campaign Attending a p o l i t i c a l meeting or r a l l y Making a monetary c o n t r i b u t i o n to a party Contacting a p u b l i c o f f i c i a l or p o l i t i c a l

leader Wearing a button or p u t t i n g a s t i c k e r on

a car Attempting to t a l k another person i n t o v o t i n g

a c e r t a i n way I n i t i a t i n g a p o l i t i c a l d i s c u s s i o n Voting

Exposing oneself to p o l i t i c a l s t i m u l i

Paying taxes

P a r t i c i p a t i o n i n : G u e r r i l l a Wars Revolutions A s s a s s i n a t i o n s General S t r i k e s R i o t s

Demonstrations

C i v i l Disobedience

P o l i t i c a l boycotts

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t i o n a l behaviors gleaned from a v a r i e t y of sources (R. Tanter, 1965, pp. 161-

162 esp.; R. Rummel, 1965, pp. 205-211 esp.; T. Gurr, 1968, p. 1107 esp.; G.

R. Lakey, 1968, pp. 2-10)--is much more u n i v e r s a l l y a p p l i c a b l e . This l a t t e r

set i s l a b e l l e d non-supportive behavior and i t appears i n Table 4: 1, to­

gether w i t h the set of supportive behaviors. U t i l i z i n g these groupings and

the dimensions developed i n Chapter I I , we can discus s some gross estimates

of overt p o l i t i c a l support.

The most d i r e c t method of o b t a i n i n g the s i z e of support i s that of

es t i m a t i n g the number of p a r t i c i p a n t s i n each of the two broad categories

above. The s i z e of support i s then simply the number of supportive p a r t i c i ­

pants minus the number of non-supportive p a r t i c i p a n t s . However, t h i s method

presents two d i f f i c u l t i e s . The f i r s t problem i s the e r r o r of double-counting

w i t h i n one or other of the a c t i v i t y c a t e g o r i e s . For example, the person who

votes may a l s o contact a p u b l i c o f f i c i a l ; the person who demonstrates may a l ­

so r i o t or s t r i k e . In f a c t , on M i l b r a t h ' s l i s t the one percent of the pop­

u l a t i o n which p a r t i c i p a t e s i n the upper three a c t i v i t i e s i s almost c e r t a i n

to be included i n the seventy percent of the populace which p a r t i c i p a t e s i n

the lower two a c t i v i t i e s (1965, p. 19). While the researcher working w i t h

aggregate data must remember t h i s caveat, ways of avoiding t h i s problem are

c o s t l y i n terms of research e f f o r t and expense. I f we d i s r e g a r d these c o s t s ,

a technique u t i l i z i n g r e l a t i v e l y small samples and survey methods can be

mentioned. I n such a survey, a respondent would be asked to score h i m s e l f

i n each category only w i t h reference to behavior i n which he p a r t i c i p a t e d

most f r e q u e n t l y . While such a method may b i a s the r e s u l t s i n favor of mass,

i n t e r m i t t e n t a c t i v i t i e s such as v o t i n g , the double-counting problem i s s t i l l

avoided. The second d i f f i c u l t y i n v o l v e s double-counting between the categories

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of behavior. Using the survey method discussed p r e v i o u s l y , t h i s problem

could be avoided by s c o r i n g respondents i n r e l a t i o n to t h e i r l e v e l s of p a r t i ­

c i p a t i o n between c a t e g o r i e s . For example, does the respondent whose most

frequent conventional behavior i s c o n t a c t i n g p u b l i c o f f i c i a l s , p a r t i c i p a t e

s t i l l more f r e q u e n t l y i n demonstrations? The u t i l i t y of such an approach

at the n a t i o n a l l e v e l could be t e s t e d by means of a n a t i o n a l sample survey.

While no such study e x i s t s at the n a t i o n a l l e v e l , the approach proved to be

u s e f u l at the l o c a l l e v e l i n a recent study of the p o l i t i c a l involvement of

poor white and negro r e s i d e n t s i n B u f f a l o (E. Cataldo and L. K e l l s t e d t , 1 9 6 8 ) .

The s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n of s i z e f i g u r e s presents a somewhat more d i f ­

f i c u l t task than the raw s c o r i n g of p a r t i c i p a n t s . While no simple base'pop­

u l a t i o n seems u n i v e r s a l l y a p p l i c a b l e across our c a t e g o r i e s , a gross standard­

i z a t i o n can be obtained by p l a c i n g the number of p a r t i c i p a n t s over t o t a l

p o p u l a t i o n . To add c r o s s - n a t i o n a l c o m p a r a b i l i t y , a standard u n i t of t o t a l

p o p u l a t i o n can be used. For e l e c t i o n o r i e n t e d behavior, the number e l i g i b l e

to vote would seem to be a s e n s i t i v e base population. However, a caveat i s

i n order since l e g a l i n e l i g i b i l i t y probably does not preclude s i g n i f i c a n t

supportive or non-supportive p a r t i c i p a t i o n . Since t h i s i n i t i a l a n a l y s i s

should not be overburdened w i t h r e s t r i c t i o n s , some i n d i c a t o r s - - s u c h as the

percentage of the p o p u l a t i o n l i t e r a t e (S.M. L i p s e t , 1960, pp. 27-45 esp.; K.

Deutsch, 1966, pp. 126-7)--which may be used to i n f e r the s i z e of support

have been l e f t f o r a l a t e r d i s c u s s i o n . Keeping t h i s gap i n mind, we can t u r n

t o an a n a l y s i s of the c o n c e n t r a t i o n of support.

In essence, we are i n t e r e s t e d i n l o c a t i n g supporters on a m u l t i ­

v a r i a t e dimension of c o n c e n t r a t i o n . This i s abundantly c l e a r from the d e f i n i ­

t i o n i n Chapter I I which emphasizes various types of groups, as w e l l as p h y s i c a l

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and p o l i t i c a l d i s t a n c e . Using t h i s dimension, i t i s extremely d i f f i c u l t to

keep the a n a l y s i s uncomplicated. At the n a t i o n a l level,one might ask whether

or not the a c t i v i t i e s c l a s s i f i e d as supportive and non-supportive tend to be

concentrated i n separate regions. I f a h i g h degree of such separation e x i s t s ,

i t i s an i n d i c a t i o n of a high degree of support c o n c e n t r a t i o n . In the simple

a n a l y s i s presented here, a high degree of support c o n c e n t r a t i o n may be assoc­

i a t e d w i t h a h i g h degree of systemic s t r e s s (S.M. L i p s e t and S. Rokkan, 1967,

pp. 15-17; R. Rose and D. Urwin, 1969). The degree of support c o n c e n t r a t i o n

may a l s o be thought of i n terms of p o l i t i c a l d i s t a nce or development. The

focus i n t h i s case i s on p o l i t i c a l m o b i l i z a t i o n and access. A respectable

body of l i t e r a t u r e e x i s t s on both v a r i a b l e s (S. Rokkan and H. Valen, 1962,*,

pp. 111-158; E. A l l a r d t , 1964, ( a ) , pp. 78-96; R. Rose, 1964, pp. 83 f f . ; J .

P. N e t t l , 1966) and t h i s work w i l l be discussed when we d i f f e r e n t i a t e between

behaviors i n greater d e t a i l . In general, we can p o s t u l a t e t h a t , the lower

the, degree of p o l i t i c a l m o b i l i z a t i o n , and the more r e s t r i c t i v e the c r i t e r i a

of access, the higher the concentration of p o l i t i c a l support. We may now

t u r n to a b r i e f a n a l y s i s of the i n t e n s i t y of b e h a v i o r a l support.

While s e v e r a l p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r a n a l y z i n g i n t e n s i t y are apparent,

many of them are blocked by o p e r a t i o n a l or data-gathering d i f f i c u l t i e s .

F o l l o w i n g the a n a l y s i s employed i n Chapter I I , behaviors could be ranked

according to the l e v e l of force they employed. T h i s : a n a l y s i s i s d i f f i c u l t

to undertake given the r e s t r i c t i v e n e s s imposed by our two broad c a t e g o r i e s

of support. Moreover, t h i s type of a n a l y s i s i s l a r g e l y s u c c e s s f u l only on

the non-support side of the equation. On the support s i d e , i t may w e l l be i

asked i f v o t i n g — f o r e x a m p l e — i s a l e s s intense act than h o l d i n g p o l i t i c a l

o f f i c e . Given our a n a l y s i s i n Chapter I I I , the most d i r e c t method of c i r -

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cumventing t h i s problem i s to v i o l a t e the separate a n a l y s i s of covert and

overt support. Much as Easton suggests (1965, (b), p. 163), respondents to

a survey could then be scored according to t h e i r degree of commitment to

var i o u s a c t i v i t i e s . More s p e c i f i c a l l y , respondents could be scored w i t h

regard to t h e i r commitment to the a c t i v i t y i n which they most o f t e n p a r t i ­

c i p a t e (E. Cataldo and L. K e l l s t e d t , 1968, pp. 83-85). Two f u r t h e r measures

of i n t e n s i t y can be suggested. I t seems p l a u s i b l e to assume that the more

intense a behavior, the greater the r e a c t i o n of the a u t h o r i t i e s . I f t h i s

n o t i o n i s accepted together w i t h i t s t e c h n i c a l d i f f i c u l t i e s (T. Gurr,1968),

non-supportive behaviors could be ranked using the number of a r r e s t s per

a c t i v i t y as an i n d i c a t o r of i n t e n s i t y (Report of the N a t i o n a l A d v i s o r y

Commission on C i v i l D i s o r d e r s , 1968, p. 177). Secondly, an estimate of be­

h a v i o r a l i n t e n s i t y could be based on the p h y s i c a l damage caused by the be­

h a v i o r . The primary assumption i s that as behavior becomes more intense,

greater p h y s i c a l damage r e s u l t s . D e p r i v a t i o n , i n j u r i e s , c a s u a l t y f i g u r e s

and non-human damage could t h e r e f o r e be used as i n t e n s i t y i n d i c a t o r s (R.

Rummel, 1965, p. 205; I.K. and R.L. Feierabend, 1966, pp. 256-263). Several

f a u l t s can be found w i t h t h i s i n d i c a t o r set however. For example, p r e c i s e

i n j u r y f i g u r e s — a s d i s t i n c t from d e a t h s — a r e d i f f i c u l t to o b t a i n (T. Gurr,

1968, p. 1108) and i n i t i a l estimates of damage r e s u l t i n g from non-supportive

behavior i s l i k e l y to be exaggerated (Report of the N a t i o n a l Advisory Com­

mi s s i o n , 1968, p. 115). I t should be concluded that the l a s t two measures

of i n t e n s i t y apply mainly to non-supportive behavior. Furthermore, t h e i r

r e s u l t s should be i n t e r p r e t e d w i t h great c a u t i o n by the researcher who u t i l ­

i z e s them.

This d i s c u s s i o n completes the i n i t i a l p o r t i o n of the chapter. In

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essence, t h i s broad i n i t i a l approach d i r e c t s the an a l y s t to measure be­

h a v i o r a l support by observing the p r o p o r t i o n of p a r t i c i p a t i o n which accrues

to each of the two broad c a t e g o r i e s . Given the l i m i t e d r e s t r i c t i o n s imposed

above, the t o t a l amount of overt support i s t o t a l conventional p a r t i c i p a t i o n

minus t o t a l unconventional p a r t i c i p a t i o n . A p o s i t i v e value i n d i c a t e s a hig h

support l e v e l . The question o f what c o n s t i t u t e s necessary and s u f f i c i e n t

support i s avoided f o r the present. Regarding the l i m i t a t i o n s of the above

approach, i t must be s a i d that the low degree of d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n i n part

n e c e s s i t a t e s a low degree of a n a l y t i c a l s o p h i s t i c a t i o n . Although we were

forced to d i f f e r e n t i a t e behaviors s l i g h t l y to a l l o w the use of our three

support dimension, i t i s necessary to complicate the a n a l y s i s s t i l l f a r t h e r .

In doing so, we must introduce more v a r i a b l e s and we must examine the i n d i ­

cators i n a much more extensive body of research. A l s o , we must introduce

some r e s t r i c t i o n s on the behaviors to be examined, since a d e t a i l e d d i s c u s ­

s i o n of a l l those l i s t e d i n Table 4: 1 would be a monumental task. Such a

c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s conditioned by an estimate of which of the behaviors o f f e r s

the most i n c l u s i v e and most u s e f u l approach f o r a d e t a i l e d support a n a l y s i s .

From the l i s t of conventional behaviors, the a c t i v i t y which seems most pro­

mising i s v o t i n g behavior.

Voting c o n s t i t u t e s the major means of p o l i t i c a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n f o r a

'majority' of persons i n those systems i n which i t i s l e g i t i m a t e . Further­

more, the ob s e r v a t i o n and measurement of overt support i s f a c i l i t a t e d by the

f a c t that the t a r g e t s of votes are v i s i b l e (G.H. Scholten, 1968, pp. 231-232).

F i n a l l y , a focus on v o t i n g as supportive or non-supportive behavior w i l l en­

able us to u t i l i z e the large volume of research which concentrates on t h i s

a c t i v i t y . While the d e c i s i o n to focus on v o t i n g i s a r b i t r a r y and while i t

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p a r t l y r e s t r i c t s the a p p l i c a b i l i t y of t h i s a n a l y s i s , the focus seems j u s t i ­

f i a b l e i n terms of the three c r i t e r i a above. The l i s t of non-conventional

behaviors w i l l be discussed i n t o t o . This emphasis i s due i n part to the

importance of deviant behavior f o r our a n a l y s i s and, i n p a r t , to the r e l a ­

t i v e l y small number of cases a s s o c i a t e d w i t h any one a c t i v i t y . We can begin

our d i s c u s s i o n w i t h e l e c t o r a l behavior, n o t i n g t h a t v a r i o u s r e s t r i c t i o n s w i l l

be imposed as the argument progresses.

I I

E l e c t o r a l Behavior and Support. Voting i s a d i s t i n c t p o l i t i c a l a c t . I t

can be described and i t can be explained. The a n a l y s i s above described vot­

ing s u p e r f i c i a l l y by i n c l u d i n g i t w i t h i n a l i m i t e d l i s t of p o s s i b l e p o l i t i c a l

a c t i v i t i e s . The task of t h i s s e c t i o n of the chapter i s twofold. Voting w i l l

be described more f u l l y by showing the various ways i n which aggregate data

can be analysed. In a d d i t i o n , the search f o r i n d i c a t o r s of support w i l l

lead us to consider some of the independent v a r i a b l e s which c o n t r i b u t e to an

explanation of v o t i n g . I t i s our contention that areas of support and non-

support can be d i s t i n g u i s h e d i n data which we simply c a l l e d 'voting' i n our

i n i t i a l conception of support.

The simplest question one can ask about v o t i n g t o t a l s at the n a t i o n ­

a l l e v e l i s : 'How many people voted?' T h i s question cannot produce many

i n t e r e s t i n g answers except i n two senses. F i r s t , we might ask: 'What i f

an e l e c t i o n were held and nobody came?' This p a r t i c u l a r l o g i c leads us to

examine the importance of n o n - p a r t i c i p a t i o n . Secondly, we can ask: 'How i s

the vote separated w i t h reference to p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s ? ' This question leads

us to consider the s i z e and the t a r g e t i n g of the vote and t h e i r importance

f o r p o l i t i c a l support.

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Considering n o n - p a r t i c i p a t i o n f i r s t , we must make i t c l e a r that i n

the present context we mean n o n - p a r t i c i p a t i o n by_ choice. Easton, on the

whole, argues that n o n - p a r t i c i p a t i o n i s midway between p o s i t i v e and nega­

t i v e support (1965, (b), p. 164). Such a conception might w e l l be c o r r e c t

i n the case of persons who are unmobilized or u n i n t e r e s t e d i n the p o l i t i c a l

system. I n Easton's terms such persons l i e outside the c l a s s of ' p o l i t i c a l l y

r e l e v a n t ' members, although the degree to which they are i r r e l e v a n t i s i n ­

d e f i n i t e . As G.H. Scholten (1968, p. 221) remarks:

I t seems to us th a t ... i t i s not worthwhile to d i s t i n g u i s h between ' p o l i t i c a l l y r e l e v a n t members' and.'members of a p o l i t i c a l system' so long as the degree of relevance i s not necessary. ... But i t continues to be important to d i s t i n g u i s h between p a r t i c i p a t i o n and relevancy.

For our purposes, we can consider u n i n t e r e s t e d persons who do not vote to

be supportive i n a r e l a t i v e l y minor sense. On the other hand, those persons

who chose not to vote on the grounds that the present p o l i t i c a l order o f f e r s

no v i a b l e reason for doing so, are important f o r support a n a l y s i s . One can

conceive of a two-party c e n t r i p e t a l system i n which successive e l e c t i o n s

demonstrate a progressive d e c l i n e i n the number of v o t e r s . Turnout may drop

to a poi n t at which the opposing sides are equal. Then the system may e v i ­

dence c e n t r i f u g a l tendencies as the p a r t i e s attempt to gain winning c o a l i ­

t i o n s by m o b i l i z i n g the n o n - p a r t i c i p a n t s at the extremes. Such a conception

i s p o s s i b l e i f one adds the v a r i a b l e of n o n - p a r t i c i p a t i o n to Downs' two party

model (A. Downs, 1957, Chapters 2-4 esp.). I n the same v e i n , A. Campbell e_t

a l (1960, Chapter 15) c i t e a g r a r i a n p o l i t i c a l behavior as a source of exten­

s i v e f l u c t u a t i o n i n voter-turnout and i d e n t i f i c a t i o n . While the American

experience of f l u c t u a t i o n from low to high r u r a l turnout i s discounted i n

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the case o f many European c o u n t r i e s , r u r a l and a g r a r i a n p a r t i e s i n Europe

conform t o our conception i n that they do not tend to be c e n t r i s t p a r t i e s

(H. C a n t r i l , 1962; E. A l l a r d t , 1964, (b); G. S a r t o r i , 1966). In order to

pursue t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f extremism f u r t h e r , we would have to introduce

our i n t e n s i t y dimension. Therefore, we s h a l l r e t u r n to the question of

p a r t y - v o t i n g . Before doing so we should add a caveat here. N o n - p a r t i c i p a ­

t i o n by choice may be due to agreement on p o s s i b l e p o l i t i c a l a l t e r n a t i v e s ,

r a t h e r than to perceived inadequacies of the p o l i t i c a l system (R.A. Dahl,

1956, p. 88). Thus, the researcher should i n v e s t i g a t e t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y be­

fore weighting the negative a l t e r n a t i v e h e a v i l y .

A gross estimate of the s i z e of a c t u a l p a r ty support i s obtainable

by d i v i d i n g the t o t a l votes cast among the p a r t i e s who recei v e d them. F o l ­

lowing t h i s , i t i s necessary to know which party (or c o a l i t i o n ) c o n s t i t u t e d

the p a r t y - i n - o f f i c e p r i o r to the e l e c t i o n , and which .party (or c o a l i t i o n )

could form the government a f t e r an e l e c t i o n . The p a r t y - i n - o f f i c e p r i o r to

an e l e c t i o n can be l a b e l l e d the government, and the remaining members of t h

party system can be l a b e l l e d the o p p o s i t i o n . The t o t a l vote cast f o r the

government c o n s t i t u t e s support; the vote f o r the o p p o s i t i o n i s non-support

f o r the present set of a u t h o r i t i e s . The l e v e l of support i s t h e r e f o r e :

S i z e of T o t a l Support = Vote f o r Government-Vote f o r Opposition (B. Frey, 1968, pp. 158-159).

T h i s s c a l e may be converted to a r a t i o value, i f d e s i r e d . The above formul

conforms c l o s e l y w i t h Easton's f o l l o w i n g statement regarding support and

op p o s i t i o n :

... unless the context i n d i c a t e s otherwise, the concept support w i l l be used i n a p o s i ­t i v e sense only and such synonyms as opposi­t i o n , h o s t i l i t y , or d e c l i n e of support w i l l be used to i n d i c a t e negative support (1965, (b), p. 164).

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A somewhat d i f f e r e n t index can be formed f o r e s t i m a t i n g support f o r govern­

mental performance. I t i s :

the number of votes cast by party members f o r the government over the number of party member who voted (S.P. McCally, 1966, p. 937).

On such an index,the lower the value produced the lower the l e v e l of support.

We can a l s o p o s t u l a t e t h a t , as the gap grows between the number who vote and

the number e l i g i b l e to vote, the s i z e of a c t u a l support w i l l become i n c r e a s ­

i n g l y unstable. Whether or not the a c t u a l q u a n t i t y of e l e c t o r a l support

changes i s a d i f f e r e n t question. I f such a s i t u a t i o n occurs i n a m o b i l i z e d ,

p o l i t i c a l l y developed country (K. Deutsch,1961; P. Outright,1963; A. E t z i o n i ,

1968), we might f i n d t h a t the number of voters d e c l i n e s . In a developing

country, the number of voters may remain c o n s t a n t — t h e gap i n c r e a s i n g as a

product of f r a n c h i s e extensions. F o l l o w i n g t h i s l o g i c the gap between poten­

t i a l and a c t u a l support may not be c r i t i c a l i n developing areas and p a r t i e s

may 'win' e l e c t i o n s given the support of a small percentage of the e l e c t o r ­

ate. A.R. Zolberg (1966, p. 15) c i t e s the f o l l o w i n g example of Ivory Coast

p o l i t i c s which serves to i l l u s t r a t e the above d i s c u s s i o n :

In the Ivory Coast, the Houphouet-Boigny organiza­t i o n obtained 94 per cent of the votes cast ... (a t o t a l of 67,874). This i s a good measure of i t s s u p e r i o r i t y over i t s opponents,but i t gives us l i t ­t l e i n f o r m a t i o n about support f o r the movement as a whole i n a country of about two and a h a l f m i l l i o n people. The votes i t gained amounted to 53 per cent of the e l i g i b l e e l e c t o r a t e who had r e g i s t e r e d , but since the e l e c t o r a t e was a very r e s t r i c t e d one,these votes represented only about 6 per cent of the e s t i ­mated adult p o p u l a t i o n . ... But i n the 1952 e l e c ­t i o n , ... , when the party won a great v i c t o r y over i t s opponents, who obtained only 28 per cent of the votes c a s t , i t s t o t a l number of votes was about the same as i t had been i n 1946 but i t represented only 33 per cent of the enlarged e l e c t o r a t e .

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Support Size and S t r e s s . The r e l a t i o n s h i p between the s i z e of support and

s t r e s s i s d i f f i c u l t to approach. In some resp e c t s , the r e l a t i o n s h i p i s ex­

pressed by asking the question: i s the government defeated i n an e l e c t i o n

(R. Tanter, 1964, pp. 161-162; J . B l o n d e l , 1968, p. 190)? Speaking simply

i n terms of n a t i o n a l e l e c t i o n s and aggregate support, o f f i c e turnover may

be r e l a t e d to low or d e c l i n i n g support i n the e l e c t o r a t e . Such an i n t e r ­

p r e t a t i o n of o f f i c e turnover should not be forced, however. Several c o u n t r i e s -

-such as F i n l a n d — h a v e i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z e d turnover i n such a way that r a p i d

o f f i c e turnover i s r e a d i l y apparent. In these cases the connection of t u r n ­

over (as s t r e s s ) to support may w e l l be spurious. On the other hand, a more

s e n s i t i v e a l t e r n a t i v e might be found i n the number of party deviates (S.P.

McCally, 1966, p. 937). An increase i n the number of party members who vote

f o r the o p p o s i t i o n i s probably i n d i c a t i v e of much more serious d e c l i n e s i n

support f o r the a u t h o r i t i e s , than are minor f l u c t u a t i o n s i n aggregate f i g u r e s .

T h i s l a s t i n d i c a t o r might w e l l be u s e f u l i n an a n a l y s i s of Labour Party sup­

port i n B r i t a i n . We can conclude t h i s d i s c u s s i o n by noting that the frequency

of e l e c t i o n s may i n i t s e l f , be an i n d i c a t o r of support i n c o n s i s t e n c i e s . Var­

i a t i o n i n the s i z e of support i s not n e c e s s a r i l y i n d i c a t e d , but a lack of

consensus f o r any p a r t i c u l a r party or p o l i c y p o s s i b l y i s ( I . L . Horowitz,1962; 9

L. L i p s i t z , 1968). .Since n a t i o n a l e l e c t i o n s are u s u a l l y separated by periods

of three to f i v e years (E. Lakeman and J.D. Lambert, 1955), some measures of

b e h a v i o r a l support would be u s e f u l . Two examples can be presented f o r pur­

poses of i l l u s t r a t i o n . In many European natio n s union employees e l e c t plant

chairmen who compete on the b a s i s of p o l i t i c a l party i d e n t i f i c a t i o n s and p l a t ­

forms (M. Edelman, 1958, pp. 547-550; M. Dogan, 1967, p. 153). Such e l e c t i o n s

occur annually and an examination o f t h e i r r e s u l t s should y i e l d a rough i n d i c a -

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t i o n of support v a r i a t i o n between e l e c t i o n s . S i m i l a r l y , an examination of

e l e c t i o n s which occur between major (or general) e l e c t i o n s — s u c h as by-

e l e c t i o n s , and Congressional e l e c t i o n s i n the United S t a t e s — w o u l d y i e l d

s i m i l a r measures of support.

Support Concentration. In our a n a l y s i s , t h e concentration of overt support

depends on two f a c t o r s : the l e v e l of p o l i t i c a l development and the degree

to which the r u l e s of p a r t i c i p a t i o n and r e p r e s e n t a t i o n are r e s t r i c t e d . We

choose to represent p o l i t i c a l development w i t h i n d i c a t o r s of contact and

communication. Development may a l s o be represented by welfare i n d i c a t o r s

such as: the % of G.N.P. devoted to w e l f a r e , the number of doctors or hos­

p i t a l beds per standard u n i t of population,or the d a i l y c a l o r i c i n t a k e per

c a p i t a (B.M. Russett, 1965, Chapter 8; E.A. Duff and J.F. McCamant, 1968,

pp. 1126-1132). However, i n d i c a t o r s of communication are a r b i t r a r i l y h e l d

to have c l o s e r l i n k s w i t h p o l i t i c a l development than do welfare i n d i c a t o r s .

I n d i c a t o r s of f r a n c h i s e and access r e s t r i c t i o n s are used to represent the

degree to which the r u l e s of p a r t i c i p a t i o n and r e p r e s e n t a t i o n are 'closed'.

Leaving aside such v a r i a b l e s as b u r e a u c r a t i c development and 'demo­

c r a t i c ' development, our focus i s on the audience of p o l i t i c s — t h e number of

* We r e a l i z e that the above d i s c u s s i o n deals l a r g e l y w i t h a c t u a l as opposed to p o t e n t i a l support. P o t e n t i a l support may be regarded as 'slack' i n the p o l i t i c a l system (R. Dahl, 1961, pp. 305-25). The number of p o l i t i c a l independents represents a p o t e n t i a l support c l i e n t e l e f o r competing p a r t i e s . This r e s e r v o i r of e l i g i b l e but non-partisan voters may cause severe f l u c t u a t i o n s i n v o t i n g alignments and i n t o t a l p a r t i c i ­p a t i o n (A. Campbell, et a l , 1960, pp. 136-142 and Chapter 15). Slack may a l s o be i n d i c a t e d by the number of e l i g i b l e groups which are p r e s e n t l y below, or only nominally above, the thresholds of p a r t i c i p a t i o n and r e ­p r e s e n t a t i o n . See F.E. Oppenheim, 1956; V.R. Lorwin, 1958; S. Rokkan, 1962; I . Bulmer-Thomas, 1965, I .

I

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people exposed t o p o l i t i c a l s t i m u l i . The i n d i c a t o r s f o r such a v a r i a b l e i n ­

clude: l i t e r a c y r a t e s , contacts w i t h government o f f i c i a l s , and r a d i o s , t e l e ­

v i s i o n s and newspaper c i r c u l a t i o n per standard u n i t of population (K. Deutsch,

1960, p. 39; S. Verba and G.A. Almond, 1964; I.K. Feierabend and R.L. F e i e r a ­

bend, 1966, p. 258; B.M. Russett, 1965; D.E. Neubauer, 1967, pp. 1005-1006).

Such i n d i c a t o r s — i f used f i r s t at the n a t i o n a l l e v e l and then i n t e r - r e g i o n ­

a l l y — w o u l d produce a rough estimate of the degree to which p o l i t i c a l develop­

ment i s evenly dispersed. High valences on the above i n d i c a t o r s o f develop­

ment would produce a low valence on a support concentration index; low v a l ­

ences would produce hi g h valences on a support index, as long as a cl o s e

correspondence between development and support c o n c e n t r a t i o n i s assumed. Be­

fore proceeding w i t h a f u r t h e r d i s c u s s i o n of p o l i t i c a l development i n the

communications sense, we s h a l l develop an argument concerning our second set

of i n d i c a t o r s : e l e c t o r a l and access r e s t r i c t i o n s . Both i n d i c a t o r sets can

then be r e l a t e d to the l e v e l of support con c e n t r a t i o n .

The p r o p o r t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n excluded from e l e c t o r a l p a r t i c i p a ­

t i o n i s the t a r g e t of t h i s d i s c u s s i o n . The researcher must examine a p o l i t i ­

c a l system and i n q u i r e i n t o the requirements f o r p a r t i c i p a t i o n . For example,

are groups excluded on economic grounds as i n B r i t a i n u n t i l 1919? Are groups

r e s t r i c t e d on r a c i a l grounds as they are i n South A f r i c a , Rhodesia and United

States? Are groups excluded on the b a s i s of sex, as were women i n most European

c o u n t r i e s u n t i l the 1940's? I t i s f u r t h e r important to note whether the r u l e s

of p a r t i c i p a t i o n are nominally or l e g a l l y open, but are closed i n p r a c t i c e .

Adding a 'threshold of r e p r e s e n t a t i o n ' , (S.M. L i p s e t and S. Rokkan, 1967, p.

27) to our f r a n c h i s e c r i t e r i a , we can ask whether or not groups are excluded

from the centers of power. The l i s t of p o l i t i c a l d i s c r i m i n a t i o n compiled by

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T. Gurr (1968, pp. 1109-1110) i l l u s t r a t e s the values which an index combin­

ing r e p r e s e n t a t i o n and p a r t i c i p a t i o n v a r i a t i o n might have:

Value 1 Some s i g n i f i c a n t p o l i t i c a l e l i t e p o s i t i o n s are

c l o s e d to the group, or some p a r t i c i p a t o r y a c t i v i t i e s ...

2 Most or a l l p o l i t i c a l e l i t e p o s i t i o n s are closed or most p a r t i c i p a t o r y a c t i v i t i e s , or some of both.

3 Most or a l l p o l i t i c a l e l i t e p o s i t i o n s and some p a r t i c i p a t o r y a c t i v i t i e s are closed.

4 Most or a l l e l i t e p o s i t i o n s and most or a l l par­t i c i p a t o r y a c t i v i t i e s are c l o s e d .

On the b a s i s of the above c r i t e r i a and the i l l u s t r a t i v e coding l i s t , i t can

be p o s t u l a t e d t h a t : the l a r g e r the number of groups excluded from p a r t i c i ­

p a t i o n and r e p r e s e n t a t i o n , the higher the degree of support concentration.

In C. Ake's terms (1967, p. 10), these c r i t e r i a would produce a h i g h 'pat­

t e r n alignment' score.

An a d d i t i o n a l i n d i c a t o r can be developed on the b a s i s of the r e ­

s t r i c t i o n s on p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s as a l l o c a t o r s of overt support (G. Almond

and G.B. Powell, 1966, Chapter 1). The 'counting' of p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s i s

a d i f f i c u l t task since s e v e r a l l e g i t i m a t e means might be employed. We can

e l i m i n a t e systems which have no p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s or which have but one party

and we can observe t h a t , i n such cases, the degree of support concentration

i s l i k e l y to be h i g h . C a r r y i n g on to two-party and m u l t i - p a r t y systems, we

are faced w i t h three methods of a n a l y s i s . We can count the number of p a r t i e s

i n the l e g i s l a t u r e , f o l l o w i n g P. C u t r i g h t (1963, p. 256). F o l l o w i n g T. Gurr

(1968, p. 1113), we might count the number of p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s , l a b e l l i n g

those whose membership i s l e s s than twenty per cent of the population, re-

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s t r i c t e d . Or we can use G. S a r t o r i ' s (1967, p. 4) c r i t e r i o n of ' c o a l i t i o n i

p o t e n t i a l ' , and l a b e l ' u n r e s t r i c t e d ' those p a r t i e s necessary f o r c o a l i t i o n

formation, or those whose " e x i s t e n c e , or appearance, a f f e c t s the t a c t i c s of

party competition ... (or) ... the d i r e c t i o n of competition ..." (p. 5). Each

of these a l t e r n a t i v e s leaves much to be d e s i r e d i n the o p e r a t i o n a l sense.

Gurr's index conforms most c l o s e l y w i t h our d e s i r e to l i n k the number of

p a r t i e s t o the number of s o c i a l groups. This index seems to be d e f i c i e n t

i n one important respect, however. That i s : a party may w e l l be r e s t r i c t e d

i n a p a r t i c i p a t i o n sense to twenty per cent of the p o p u l a t i o n , but i t may

a t t r a c t or represent much more than t h i s percentage. Gurr's index a l s o

ignores the c l i e n t e l e which e x i s t s outside party membership. I t i s there­

fore proposed that a measure of support c o n c e n t r a t i o n be taken w i t h i n p a r t i e s ,

and, that a separate measure be taken at the party-system l e v e l . Our i n d i ­

c a t o r , f o l l o w i n g R. Rose and D. Urwin (1969, pp. 11-12 esp.) and the d i s c u s ­

s i o n i n Chapter I I , i s based on the l e v e l of i n t r a - p a r t y and party-system

cohesion. The l e v e l of cohesion i s based on the number of s o c i a l 'charact­

e r i s t i c s ' from which the p a r t i e s draw support. While the p r e c i s e d e f i n i t i o n a l

c r i t e r i a appear i n Appendix I I , the r e l a t i o n s h i p between the number of s o c i a l

c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s drawn upon and the l e v e l of support concentration can be sum­

marized by the f o l l o w i n g hypotheses. I t i s p o s t u l a t e d t h a t :

1 The lower the number of s o c i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s drawn upon by any p a r t y , the higher the degree of support concentration;

2 The lower the number of s o c i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s drawn upon by the members of the party system, the higher the degree of support c o n c e n t r a t i o n .

We can now j o i n our d i s c u s s i o n s of p o l i t i c a l development to that of

p o l i t i c a l r e s t r i c t i o n s and observe t h e i r combined e f f e c t on the support con-

c e n t r a t i o n dimension. I t must be remembered that ' p o l i t i c a l r e s t r i c t i o n s '

i n c l u d e a l l that we have discussed regarding p a r t i c i p a t o r y r u l e s f o r e l e c ­

t i o n s and elite-membership, as w e l l as s o c i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c r e s t r i c t i o n s .

The f o l l o w i n g combinations of our i n d i c a t o r sets can be po s t u l a t e d . F i r s t ,

i f the l e v e l of development i s high and p o l i t i c a l r e s t r i c t i o n s are low,then

support concentration i s l i k e l y to be low. I f the l e v e l of development i s

low and p o l i t i c a l r e s t r i c t i o n s are high, then the concentration of support

i s l i k e l y to be hi g h . In t h i s case of low development and high p o l i t i c a l

r e s t r i c t i o n s , the ' p u b l i c ' i s most l i k e l y non-existent i n a n a t i o n a l sense.

As D.E. Ashford observes:

The vast m a j o r i t y of the c i t i z e n s of a new country are i s o l a t e d i n p r i m i t i v e communities, where many l i v e i n t r i b a l s o c i a l systems and p r e c a r i o u s l y man­age to survive on a subsistence l e v e l of income. They are t o t a l l y committed to t h e i r l o c a l community which f u l f i l l s a l l the needs of t h e i r l i v e s (1960, p. 312).

I f such a s i t u a t i o n i s evident, the researcher may s h i f t h i s l e v e l of an­

a l y s i s to the l o c a l or r e g i o n a l l e v e l or he can concentrate on'withinputs'

of support i n an e l i t e s e t t i n g . This l a t t e r a l t e r n a t i v e i s e q u a l l y p o s s i b l e

i n the s i t u a t i o n expressed by the f o l l o w i n g hypothesis: I f the l e v e l of

development i s h i g h and p o l i t i c a l r e s t r i c t i o n s are high, then the concentra­

t i o n o f support i s l i k e l y to be high. In t h i s i n stance, support may be more

vul n e r a b l e than i n the case of low p o l i t i c a l development. I f we were to add

the nature of systemic outputs to the scheme, we would probably f i n d a heavy

emphasis on claims of t o t a l j u r i s d i c t i o n and on sanctions f o r overt negative

support. These sanctions would probably be given far greater credence i n

developed systems than i n those which are developing. These points w i l l be

discussed l a t e r i n the chapter. Given t h i s d i g r e s s i o n , we can continue the

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a n a l y s i s of overt support i n the context of developing s o c i e t i e s and i n the

context of the'withinput' n o t i o n .

The v a r i e t i e s of support extant i n the r u r a l areas of developing

p o l i t i c a l systems are not l i k e l y to be of i n t e r e s t to the analyst preoccupied

w i t h support f o r the n a t i o n a l system. Such an analyst i s l i k e l y to be i n t e r ­

ested i n the r u r a l p a t t e r n only i n so f a r as i t i s necessary f o r h i s explana­

t i o n of n a t i o n a l support l e v e l s . T his i n t e r e s t i s l a r g e l y covered by our

argument on support c o n c e n t r a t i o n . Despite the lack of a large audience, we

s h a l l b r i e f l y d i s c u s s the p o s s i b l e patterns i n r u r a l , t r a d i t i o n a l systems.

Overt support i n t h i s type of system i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by s e v e r a l

types of behavior: a l l o c a t i o n of goods to the head of the t r i b e , support

f o r t r i b a l recruitment p a t t e r n s , and p a r t i c i p a t i o n w i t h i n the framework pro­

vided by various r i t u a l or r o l e s t r u c t u r e s (M.A. Straus and S. Cytrynbaum,

1962; M.Gluckman, 1965, pp. 138-151;vR.P. Werbner, 1967, pp. 22-47). P a r t i ­

c i p a t i o n w i t h i n the network of k i n s h i p t i e s and the voluntary allotment of

goods to the a u t h o r i t i e s are p a r t i c u l a r l y strong i n d i c a t o r s of p o s i t i v e sup­

port (M. Gluckman, 1961, pp. 19-56; F. Riggs, 1964, pp.369-370). In A f r i c a ,

f o r periods p r i o r to c o l o n i a l r u l e , secessions from the p o l i t i c a l system are

good i n d i c a t o r s of negative support (R.L. Wishlade, 1961, pp. 36-37 esp.).

In t h i s way, support can be measured at the l o c a l l e v e l i t s e l f . Or, from a

m o b i l i z a t i o n p e r s p e c t i v e , the s t r e n g t h of l o c a l supportive attachments can

be r e l a t e d to the n a t i o n a l support l e v e l s . The d i r e c t i n g hypothesis i n the

l a t t e r case i s : the stronger l o c a l support attachments are, the lower the

l e v e l o f n a t i o n a l support (A. E t z i o n i , 1968, p. 248 esp.). I n developed

p o l i t i c a l systems w i t h r e l a t i v e l y u n r e s t r i c t e d p o l i t i c a l r u l e s , t h e c o n t r a s t

between n a t i o n a l and l o c a l support i s e q u a l l y i n s t r u c t i v e . M. Kesselman's

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(1966) comparison of French l o c a l (mayoral) s t a b i l i t y i n o f f i c e w i t h n a t i o n a l

i n s t a b i l i t y i n o f f i c e serves as an example. We s h a l l deal f u r t h e r w i t h t h i s

d i f f i c u l t problem of support at d i f f e r e n t systemic l e v e l s , when we connect

support to s t r e s s .

Turning to the examination of support extension w i t h i n a u t h o r i t y

groups, we f i n d that p o l i t i c a l systems w i t h high p o l i t i c a l r e s t r i c t i o n s

o f f e r s e v e r a l problems i n d i s t i n g u i s h i n g between 'the government' and "the

supporters' (D.A. Booth and C.R. Adrian, 1961, pp. 14-15; G.A. Almond, 1964,

pp. 131-139). W i t h i n these systems, three groups c o n s t i t u t e a p o s s i b l e focus

f o r support a n a l y s i s : m i l i t a r y groups (M. Khadduri, 1953; T. Wyckoff, 1960;

D.A. Chalmers, 1969, pp. 73-74 esp.); b u r e a u c r a t i c and r e l i g i o u s groups (H.

F e i t h , 1963, pp. 89-92 esp.; S.N. E i s e n s t a d t , 1967, pp. 255-257). S p e c i f i c

i n d i c a t o r s of support w i t h i n p u t s may be h i g h l y v i s i b l e or they may be r a t h e r

obscure to the outside observer. I n d i c a t o r s of v i s i b l e w i t h i n p u t s of a p o s i ­

t i v e valence would includ e expressions of group s o l i d a r i t y by group-members

f o r the occupants of a u t h o r i t y r o l e s . C o a l i t i o n s h i f t s provide examples of

a more obscure i n d i c a t o r (S.D. Johnson, 1967, pp. 288-307). I t should be

added that the s i z e of e l i t e support groups can be obtained by e s t i m a t i n g

e l i t e group membership, excluding members who occupy a u t h o r i t y r o l e s . This

measure can be standardized by d i s c o v e r i n g what p r o p o r t i o n of the t o t a l pop­

u l a t i o n belongs to such groups. This conception seems to c o i n c i d e w i t h

Easton's (1965, (b), pp. 53-54) s p e c i f i c a t i o n s f o r ' p o l i t i c a l l y r e l e v a n t '

members.

This i s Easton's concept of 'withinputs' (1965, (b), pp. 55-56).

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I f such measures as the above are u n a v a i l a b l e f o r these systems of

high support c o n c e n t r a t i o n , a measure of e x t r a c t i v e support can provide a

crude s u b s t i t u t e . As G.A. Almond notes: "The support aspect of c a p a b i l i t y

has to be measured ... i n terms of the resources d e l i v e r e d i n r e l a t i o n to

the resources l e v i e d ..." (1965, p. 204). In much the same way, F. Riggs

(1964, pp. 213-215) p o s t u l a t e s that a p o l i t i c a l system i n which 'net t r a n s ­

f e r s ' — t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t r a n s f e r s - i n and t r a n s f e r s - o u t are p o s i t i v e ,

enjoys a s t a t e of support. Two i n d i c a t o r s of overt support i n the form of

e x t r a c t i o n s can be pointed out. F i r s t the r e l a t i o n s h i p could be expressed

as the income of the n a t i o n a l government minus i t s expenditures (K. Deutsch,

1960, p. 39). A more s p e c i f i c i n d i c a t o r i s the tax r e c e i v e d by government

minus the tax demanded. Negative values would be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h negative

support i n both cases.

This d i s c u s s i o n ends the r a t h e r lengthy argument concerning the

s i z e and c o n c e n t r a t i o n of support. To summarize b r i e f l y : we developed a

set of i n d i c a t o r s f o r the number of p a r t i c i p a n t s and n o n - p a r t i c i p a n t s ; we

developed i n d i c a t o r s f o r the number of groups p a r t i c i p a t i n g , the number of

p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s , the r e s t r i c t i o n s on p o l i t i c a l a c t i v i t y , and the l e v e l of

p o l i t i c a l development. F i n a l l y , we developed a l i m i t e d d i s c u s s i o n on the

nature of supportive w i t h i n p u t s and on the types of overt support probably

present i n t r i b a l systems. We can now go on and discuss the i n t e n s i t y of

support.

Support I n t e n s i t y . A major p o r t i o n of Easton's a n a l y s i s i s biased toward

the pragmatic, t o l e r a n t settlement of p o l i t i c a l disputes (1965, (b), pp.

332-340 esp.). Indeed, i t could be argued that our a n a l y s i s i s weakened by

a concentration on a f a i r l y narrow range of p o l i t i c a l systems which happen

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be c h a r a c t e r i z e d by pragmatic c o n f l i c t settlement. While our a n a l y s i s has

not attempted t o be general i n d e t a i l , our dimensions do not preclude the

a n a l y s i s of a great many p o l i t i c a l systems. However, i f these matters are

l e f t f o r the present, the question of how to deal w i t h the i n t e n s i t y of overt

support s t i l l a r i s e s . R e t a i n i n g v o t i n g and the l i s t of deviant behaviors as

our data g u i d e l i n e s , we propose to discuss the i n t e n s i t y of overt support i n

the f o l l o w i n g way. F i r s t , the i n t e n s i t y of v o t i n g w i l l focus on party iden­

t i f i c a t i o n s and t h e i r meaning, and the d i r e c t i o n o f v o t i n g . Second, cleavage

w i l l be d i s c u s s e d — b o t h as an i n t e r v e n i n g v a r i a b l e and as an i n d i c a t o r of

i n t e n s i t y . I n conj u n c t i o n w i t h cleavage, the n o t i o n of p o l i t i c a l d istance

w i l l a l s o be developed. F i n a l l y , the i n t e n s i t y of negative support w i l l be

discussed.

The l a b e l l i n g of i n d i v i d u a l s and groups on the b a s i s of t h e i r party

i d e n t i f i c a t i o n s i s a common device f o r p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s . But what does

i t mean to say that a person i s a Conservative, a C h r i s t i a n Democrat, a

Republican or a Communist? Such a question forces us to take note of two

of the fu n c t i o n s p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s perform. F i r s t , they serve as f o c i of

i d e n t i f i c a t i o n ; second, they extend the support of t h e i r c l i e n t e l e s to the

p o l i t i c a l system i n general and the government i n p a r t i c u l a r . Or, they may

with h o l d that support. Carrying the a n a l y s i s a step f a r t h e r , i t should be

p o s s i b l e to measure the distance of p a r t i e s (and t h e i r adherents) from each

other and from a 'modal' systemic p o s i t i o n , as expressed i n terms of regime

r u l e s . The n o t i o n of 'pro-system' and 'anti-system' p a r t i e s can be used as

one approach to party distance — cleavage a n a l y s i s c o n s t i t u t i n g the second

major focus.

A considerable body of t h e o r e t i c a l w r i t i n g e x i s t s on the matter of

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system and 'anti-system' p a r t i e s (H. Daalder,1966,pp. 64-69 esp.; G. S a r t o r i ,

1966). This l i t e r a t u r e makes a reasonable t h e o r e t i c a l case f o r the concept

of d i s t a n c e or p o l a r i z a t i o n and i t i s p a r t l y s u c c e s s f u l i n p o i n t i n g out em­

p i r i c a l examples conforming to the i d e a l i z e d types. I n t h i s body of l i t e r ­

a ture, however, no methods are presented w i t h which the researcher can e s t i ­

mate the i n t e n s i t y of support f o r the p o l i t i c a l system. We s h a l l t herefore

p o s t u l a t e t h a t the vote f o r , or the membership i n , p a r t i e s at the extremes

of the i d e o l o g i c a l continuum should be summed. The f i g u r e thus obtained

should be subtracted from the t o t a l vote f o r , or membership i n , p a r t i e s c l o s e

to the i d e o l o g i c a l center. When r i g h t extremist v o t i n g i s very small ( l e s s

than 5 per cent of the e l e c t o r a t e ) , the researcher can s a f e l y estimate the

communist party vote as a percentage of the t o t a l e l e c t o r a t e . T h i s i n d i c a ­

t o r can be used to estimate the i n t e n s i t y o f overt support as expressed i n

v o t i n g . I t should be used as such w i t h c a u t i o n , however. The assumption

u n d e r l y i n g t h i s i n d i c a t o r i s that persons v o t i n g f o r extremist p a r t i e s do

so more i n t e n s e l y than do those v o t i n g f o r c e n t r i s t p a r t i e s . (S.M. L i p s e t ,

1960, Chapter 4; H. C a n t r i l , 1962, p. 73) This assumption may not hold i f

c e n t r i s t voters f e e l the extremist vote to be a thr e a t t o t h e i r p o s i t i o n .

The problem might be avoided by u s i n g a second method of a n a l y s i s . This

method i n v o l v e s the content a n a l y s i s of party platforms and speeches of party

leaders (G. Pomper, 1967). While l i t t l e systematic evidence has been c o l l e c t e d ,

i t would seem l o g i c a l to hypothesize that 'anti-system' p a r t i e s make more f r e ­

quent negative references to the p o l i t i c a l system than do 'pro-system' p a r t i e s .

The i n t e n s i t y of support could then be derived by measuring the frequency of

refer e n c e s , both 'pro-' and 'anti-system". As a subfocus to the content

a n a l y s i s technique, an analyst could t r y to determine the r a t i o of un-

bargainable to bargainable demands, as made by the p a r t i e s (R. Rose and D.

Urwin, 1969, p. 37). The guiding hypothesis i n t h i s case i s : the greater

the d i f f e r e n c e between the value obtained and e q u a l i t y , the greater the i n ­

t e n s i t y of p o s i t i v e or negative overt support. Before t u r n i n g to cleavages,

we can di s c u s s two a d d i t i o n a l i n d i c a t o r s of negative support.

For those p o l i t i c a l systems i n which e l e c t i o n s occur on a f a i r l y

r e g u l a r b a s i s , two a d d i t i o n a l behaviors can be used as i n d i c a t o r s of nega­

t i v e , p a r t y - o r i e n t e d support. They are: 1) the r e f u s a l of p a r t i e s t o form

c o a l i t i o n governments; (2) the a d v i s i n g of party c l i e n t e l e s not to vote. The

f i r s t i n d i c a t o r d e r i v e s from evidence that p a r t i e s may o f t e n refuse to form

c o a l i t i o n s — f o r which they are e l i g i b l e — o w i n g to a lack of support f o r the

regime or the a u t h o r i t i e s . The behavior of the S o c i a l i s t s i n Norway from

1913 to the 1930*s and that of the S o c i a l i s t s i n Japan during the 1930's

o f f e r two examples of t h i s negative support (H. E c k s t e i n , 1966; J.A. Stockwin,

1968). The second i n d i c a t o r r e s t s on evidence that p a r t i e s may refuse to

p a r t i c i p a t e i n e l e c t i o n s or to r e l e a s e the support of t h e i r c l i e n t e l e s to

other p a r t i e s i n r u n - o f f e l e c t i o n s . Although the object of t h i s negative

support i s d i f f i c u l t to detect w i t h p r e c i s i o n , the regime and the p o l i t i c a l

community appear to be the most l i k e l y candidates. This i s so because the

r u l e s of p o l i t i c a l c o n f l i c t and the areas of l i f e p o l i t i c i z e d are the most

frequent subjects of dis p u t e , given these behaviors. The i n t e n s i t y of these

behaviors may be gauged by t h e i r frequency over time or by reference to the

l e v e l of the system t o which they are d i r e c t e d (D. Easton, 1965, (b), pp.

320-321). The s i z e of t o t a l support can be obtained by comparing the number

of p a r t i c i p a n t s i n negative behaviors to the number p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n p o s i t i v e

behaviors. Having made these p o i n t s we can discuss the notions of cleavage

and s o c i a l d i s t ance as approaches to the i n t e n s i t y dimension.

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E a r l i e r i n the chapter, we discussed the number of s o c i a l character­

i s t i c s i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z e d by p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s as an i n d i c a t o r of support con­

c e n t r a t i o n . In the present d i s c u s s i o n of cleavages,we w i l l develop much the

same m a t e r i a l i n a s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t way. We are i n t e r e s t e d i n examining

the manner i n which s o c i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s are d i s t r i b u t e d among p a r t i e s i n

party-systems. We are a l s o i n t e r e s t e d i n d i s c u s s i n g cleavage types as i n d i ­

c a tors of i n t e n s i t y . In a d d i t i o n , we s h a l l look outside the party system

and develop the r e g i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of s o c i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s as an i n d i ­

cator of i n t e n s i t y . Much of t h i s argument'draws h e a v i l y on recent work i n

the area of p o l i t i c a l and s o c i a l cleavage. (M. Duverger, 1954; S. Rokkan and

H. Valen, 1964; S.M. L i p s e t and S. Rokkan, 1967; R. Rose and D. Urwin, 1969).

Cleavages are simply modes of s o c i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n which i n ­

d i v i d u a l s have membership. Cleavage theory p o s t u l a t e s that the i n t e n s i t y

of p o l i t i c a l c o n f l i c t decreases as i n d i v i d u a l s r e t a i n membership i n i n c r e a s ­

ing numbers of s o c i a l groupings. In other words, the d i s t r i b u t i o n of i n d i v i d ­

u a l s on a l l s o c i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s approaches unimodality or complete d i s p e r ­

s i o n . Cleavage p r o g r e s s i v e l y decreases as t h i s c o n d i t i o n i s approached. In

the s o c i a l - p s y c h o l o g i c a l sense, the i n t e n s i t y of p o l i t i c a l c o n f l i c t decreases

since i n d i v i d u a l s possessing m u l t i p l e memberships lack a base of d i s t i n c t i v e ­

ness on which to base c o n f l i c t f u l 'we-they' i d e n t i f i c a t i o n s (E.S. Bogardus,

1933; S.M. L i p s e t et a l , 1954; J.S. Coleman, 1957; B. Eisman, 1959). In -gen­

e r a l , the converse hypothesis s t a t e s : e x cluding u n i t y , the fewer the i d e n t i ­

f i c a t i o n bases which i n d i v i d u a l s i n s o c i e t y hold i n common, the higher the

l e v e l of cleavage. I d e n t i f i c a t i o n w i t h i n the s o c i a l or p s y c h o l o g i c a l char­

a c t e r i s t i c become stronger than i d e n t i f i c a t i o n s between c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . The

degree to which s o c i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s are encapsulated i s h e l d t o be synonymous

w i t h the degree of cleavage i n the s o c i e t y . The degree of cleavage i s f r e ­

quently represented by i n d i c a t o r s of inter-group m o b i l i t y such as c l a s s ,

e d u c a t i o n a l , o c c u p a t i o n a l , and status movements (H. L a s s w e l l and A. Kaplan,

1950; R. Bendix and S.M. L i p s e t , 1959; G. Marwell, 1966). The same r e l a t i o n ­

ship can be represented by i n d i c a t o r s which are demographic rather than s o c i o -

p s y c h o l o g i c a l . T h i s set includes the degree of u r b a n i z a t i o n (P. Coulte r and

G. Gordon, 1968), and the r a t e of i n t e r - r e g i o n a l m o b i l i t y (A. Campbell, et

a l , 1960, pp. 443-445 esp.). The r e l a t i o n s h i p between these i n d i c a t o r s and

cleavage can be summed up as f o l l o w s :

The lower the values obtained on these i n d i c a t o r s , the higher the degree of cleavage.

T r a n s f e r r i n g t h i s d i s c u s s i o n to our a n a l y s i s of support i n t e n s i t y , we can

make the f o l l o w i n g observations. F i r s t , i t i s postu l a t e d that the higher

the degree of s o c i a l or p s y c h o l o g i c a l cleavage, the greater the i n t e n s i t y

of p o l i t i c a l support f or i n d i v i d u a l p a r t i e s r e presenting these cleavages.

At the same time, i t i s held: the greater the degree of cleavage, the lower

the i n t e n s i t y of support f o r the p o l i t i c a l system of which the p a r t i e s are

members (S.M. L i p s e t and S. Rokkan, 1967, pp. 15-17). Given these general

hypotheses, we can b r i e f l y examine the r e l a t i o n s h i p of cleavage types to

support i n t e n s i t y . Since t h i s type of a n a l y s i s could i n v o l v e a f u l l - l e n g t h

p r o j e c t i n i t s e l f , we s h a l l simply summarize i n hypothesis form the r e s u l t s

of some recent research (R. Rose and D. Urwin, 1969, pp. 7-67). Holding

f a c t o r s such as p o l i t i c a l and economic development constant:

1 I f the predominant dimension on which cleavage i s i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z e d i s communal (eg. l i n g u i s t i c , e t h n i c or t e r r i t o r i a l ) , t h e n the supportive behaviors (votes) d i r e c t e d towards each party on the dimension are l i k e l y t o be intense, and support i n t e n s i t y f o r the system as a whole i s l i k e l y to be low;

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2 I f the.predominant dimension on which cleavages are i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z e d i s r e l i g i o u s , t h e n suppor­t i v e behavior d i r e c t e d toward each party i s l i k e l y to be intense and the i n t e n s i t y of sup­port f o r the system i s l i k e l y to be low.

I f we add economic and c l a s s cleavages we f i n d that these types have a tem­

porary, mixed e f f e c t on support i n t e n s i t y . Introducing p o l i t i c a l develop­

ment, we f i n d evidence i n European c o u n t r i e s that economic cleavages pre-

ceeded i n time by p o l i t i c a l development generate intense p o l i t i c a l behaviors.

A system developing i n t h i s way i s faced w i t h low inputs of t o t a l support as

w e l l as h i g h l y intense negative support. One reason f o r t h i s c o n d i t i o n i s

the f a c t that the economic cleavages are h i g h l y p o l i t i c i z e d and the system

has no means w i t h which to s a t i s f y these demands (V.R. Lorwin, 1957-1958,p.

345; S. Rokkan and H. Valen, 1964, p. 166). I f the converse c o n d i t i o n — l o w

p o l i t i c a l development and moderate or h i g h economic development—obtains,

then we might w e l l expect economic cleavages to be a s s i m i l a t e d and to have

l i t t l e e f f e c t on support i n t e n s i t y . The degree t o which they are a s s i m i l a t e d

may be roughly a s c e r t a i n e d by means of I.K. and R.L. Feierabend 1s (1966)

' S o c i a l Want S a t i s f a c t i o n / S o c i a l Want Formation' index. Some recent data

i n d i c a t e that the r e l a t i o n s h i p between l e v e l s of support and p o l i t i c a l and

economic development might not be t h i s simple. P o l i t i c a l and economic de­

velopment may have bypassed some groups i n the s o c i e t y ; these groups are

l e f t beneath the attainment t h r e s h o l d f o r the values and goods the m a j o r i t y

group p r i z e s . As one author notes:

I t i s h i g h l y l i k e l y that increase i n economic w e l l -being and popular p o l i t i c a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n f o r m a j o r i t y groups i n European nations exacerbate the h o s t i l i t i e s of r e g i o n a l and e t h n i c m i n o r i t i e s that do not have what they regard as a f a i r share of those b e n e f i t s . (T. Gurr, 1969, p. 558).

Class cleavage i s u n l i k e l y to produce hi g h l e v e l s of support i n t e n s i t y unless

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"support i s obtained by r a i s i n g an o v e r r i d i n g p o l i t i c a l c l a i m " (R. Rose and

D. Urwin, 1969, p. 38). I n the same w a y , t e r r i t o r i a l cleavages are u n l i k e l y to

a f f e c t support i n t e n s i t y unless the e l e c t o r a l f r a n c h i s e i s h i g h l y r e s t r i c t e d

(S.M. L i p s e t and S. Rokkan, 1967, p. 12). Those p o l i t i c a l systems, i n which

'r e l e v a n t ' support membership i s h i g h l y r e s t r i c t e d , are l i k e l y to have h i g h l y

intense supportive behaviors. In t h i s type of system, the i n t e n s i t y of sup­

port i s l i k e l y t o vary d i r e c t l y w i t h three f a c t o r s : 1) the degree to which

supporters i d e n t i f y t h e i r a c t i v i t i e s w i t h group norms (D.E. Stokes, 1963);

(2) the number of r u l e s which circumscribe the p o l i t i c a l game; (3) the area

of l i f e p o l i t i c i z e d (D. Apter, 1968, pp. 235 f f . ) . The f i r s t i n d i c a t o r con­

forms to our above d i s c u s s i o n of p s y c h o l o g i c a l i d e n t i f i c a t i o n s . The second

i n d i c a t o r r e s t s on evidence that occupants of the r e l e v a n t support p o s i t i o n s

i n c l o s e d s o c i e t i e s tend to extend support on an intense a s c r i b e d , personal-

i s t i c b a s i s ( J . LaPalombara and M. Weiner, 1966, pp. 37-41; S.M. L i p s e t and

S. Rokkan, 1967, p. 11). As S. Verba and G.A. Almond (1964, p. 211) note:

Here we are d e a l i n g w i t h p o l i t i c a l c u l t u r e s that are changing and i n which l a r g e proportions of the p o p u l a t i o n are l e a r n i n g the knowledge, f e e l ­i n g s , values, and s k i l l s that the emerging p o l i t ­i c a l system r e q u i r e s . I t i s a type of o r i e n t a t i o n that i s h i g h i n f e e l i n g but low i n knowledge and competence. (Emphasis mine)

The t h i r d i n d i c a t o r r e f e r s to evidence that support i n closed s o c i e t i e s tends

to be h i g h l y intense to the extent that i t i s extended or w i t h h e l d f o r ideo­

l o g i c a l , as opposed to pragmatic purposes ( c f . D. Easton, 1965, (b), pp. 286-

f f . ) . T h is d i s c u s s i o n of 'withinputs* of support i n closed s o c i e t i e s o f f e r s

a c o n t r a s t w i t h our argument concerning p a r t y d i s t a n c e , extremist groupings,

and cleavage. In the l a t t e r case, high values on the i n t e n s i t y dimension

i n d i c a t e d probable low values of t o t a l support. I n the former case, high

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values on the i n t e n s i t y dimension probably i n d i c a t e h i g h l e v e l s of support

f o r the system as a whole. This i s so because the supporters are the system,

by d e f i n i t i o n . The r e s u l t s may be deceptive, however. As a recent study (H.

Kantor, 1969, pp. 400-401) of Colombian p o l i t i c s shows, the e l i t e group may

be s u c c e s s f u l i n p r e s e r v i n g a facade of support. At the same time, behind

t h i s facade, very intense non-supportive a c t i v i t i e s are occuring among the

p o l i t i c a l "have-nots'. I t i s to the question of non-supportive a c t i v i t y

t h a t we now t u r n .

I n the f i r s t part of t h i s chapter, a crude a n a l y s i s was commissioned

on the assumption that 'conventional' behavior c o n s t i t u t e d support and 'un­

c o n v e n t i o n a l ' behavior c o n s t i t u t e d non-support. This a n a l y s i s i n d i c a t e d a

l o g i c a l u t i l i t y , at l e a s t , f o r such an u n d i f f e r e n t i a t e d conception. The sub­

sequent a n a l y s i s of v o t i n g behavior, cleavages, w i t h i n p u t s of support--as

w e l l as a sketchy d e s c r i p t i o n o f support i n p r i m i t i v e p o l i t i c a l s y s t e m s -

showed that important aspects of p o s i t i v e and negative support were hidden

i n the i n i t i a l f o r m u l a t i o n . The i n i t i a l f o r m u l a t i o n a l s o presented two l i s t s

of p o l i t i c a l behaviors (Table 4:1), one of which was devoted to non-supportive

behaviors. This l i s t must now be juxtaposed w i t h our formulation i n Chapter I

which hypothesized that s t r e s s as the dependent v a r i a b l e i s represented by

change i n the three p o l i t i c a l o b j e c t s . Consider then the f o l l o w i n g statement:

the number of p r e s i d e n t s assassinated over a given time p e r i o d i s a v a l i d

i n d i c a t o r of the i n t e n s i t y of negative support. I t i s obvious t h a t we have

j u s t committed a l o g i c a l f a l l a c y . That i s : the same set of behaviors which

could serve as i n d i c a t o r s of negative overt support could a l s o be i n d i c a t o r s

of s t r e s s . We must avoid d e f i n i n g away our problem of the s u p p o r t — s t r e s s

r e l a t i o n s h i p by the use of the same i n d i c a t o r s f o r phenomena on opposite

sides of the equation. This conceptual d i f f i c u l t y can be overcome by separ-

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a t i n g out those behaviors which do not i n v o l v e s t r e s s by d e f i n i t i o n . Some

a d d i t i o n a l behaviors can then be added to t h i s s e t . These behaviors--which

appear i n Table 4:2 b e l o w — a r e i n i t i a l l y ranked as to t h e i r i n t e n s i t y , by

reference to our p h y s i c a l force c r i t e r i a i n Appendix I . They can a l s o be

ranked by r e f e r r i n g to the number of c a s u a l t i e s (both k i l l e d and wounded) as

R. Tanter and M. M i d l a r s k y (1968) and T. Gurr (1968, pp. 1107-1108) have

demonstrated. The amount of p h y s i c a l damage might a l s o be used as an i n d i ­

c a tor of negative support i n t e n s i t y but, as we observed e a r l i e r , the values

TABLE 4:2

NEGATIVE SUPPORT BEHAVIORS

I n t e n s i t y Rank „ , . ,-r, „ „ , Behavior (Force Use C r i t e r i o n )

5 R i o t 4 General S t r i k e 3 Demonstration 2 C i v i l Disobedience 1 Emigration

obtained may be h i g h l y exaggerated. The s i z e of the domestic p o l i c e , m i l i t i a ,

or m i l i t a r y force summoned to d e a l w i t h a deviant behavior can serve as an

a d d i t i o n a l i n d i c a t o r . The assumption i s : t h i s type of response by the auth­

o r i t i e s corresponds w i t h the o b j e c t i v e i n t e n s i t y o f the behavior. Since t h i s

i s not always an accurate interpretation,some c a u t i o n should be e x e r c i s e d i n

the employment of t h i s i n d i c a t o r . I t should be added that the f o l l o w i n g be­

h a v i o r s have been l e f t f or our d i s c u s s i o n o f s t r e s s i n Chapter V: assassina-

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t i o n s , coups, r e v o l u t i o n s , g u e r r i l l a wars, secessions, e x i l e s and r e s i g n a ­

t i o n s . We can now b r i e f l y discuss the behaviors l i s t e d i n Table 4:2 as

i n d i c a t o r s of negative support.

The s i z e of negative support can be given i n terras of the number

of p a r t i c i p a n t s per standard u n i t of p o p u l a t i o n . Or, the number of behaviors

per systemic l e v e l could be used. F o l l o w i n g the l o g i c of our lengthy d i s c u s ­

s i o n of e l e c t o r a l c o n c e n t r a t i o n , the measurement of negative support concen­

t r a t i o n i n v o l v e s the use of i n d i c a t o r s of behavior d i s p e r s i o n w i t h i n s o c i a l

groupings. In t h i s way, the greater the degree to which negative behaviors

are dispersed i n the s o c i e t y , the lower the degree of support c o n c e n t r a t i o n

and the lower the l e v e l of support f o r the system as a whole. An examina­

t i o n of a u t h o r i t a t i v e j u r i s d i c t i o n could prove t o be an i n t e r e s t i n g way of

l o o k i n g at support c o n c e n t r a t i o n . This could be done by e s t i m a t i n g the amount

of the p o l i t i c a l system a c t u a l l y under government c o n t r o l as compared to that

only nominally so. To i l l u s t r a t e t h i s point f o r developing systems, we need

only r e c a l l the l i m i t e d contact r u r a l r e s i d e n t s have w i t h n a t i o n a l o f f i c i a l s

and the l i m i t e d amount of e x t r a c t i v e support f l o w i n g from the r u r a l areas (F.

Riggs, 1964, pp. 369-70) . Even i n developed systems, c e r t a i n areas f a l l out­

side the d a i l y j u r i s d i c t i o n of the government. The f o l l o w i n g quotation makes

the point c l e a r i n the case of c e r t a i n urban areas of the United S t a t e s :

To put i t simply, f o r decades l i t t l e i f any law enforcement has p r e v a i l e d among Negroes i n America, p a r t i c u l a r l y those i n the ghettos. I f a black man k i l l s another black man,the law i s g e n e r a l l y enfor­ced at i t s minimum. Violence of every type runs ram­pant. (D. Hardy, testimony c i t e d i n Report of the N a t i o n a l Advisory Commission, 1968, p. 308).

Using t h i s l i n e of reasoning, we can p o s t u l a t e : the lower the l e v e l of govern­

mental j u r i s d i c t i o n or the more r e s t r i c t e d i t i s , the lower the concentration

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of negative support. F u r t h e r , the lower the c o n c e n t r a t i o n of negative sup­

p o r t , the lower the t o t a l l e v e l of support for the system. B u i l d i n g upon

our d i s c u s s i o n of p o l i t i c a l and economic development, we f i n d that i n d i c a ­

t o r s of these phenomena may a l s o be used to i n f e r negative support behaviors.

I t should be noted that these i n d i c a t o r s overlap our i n t e n s i t y and concentra­

t i o n dimensions, and that the r e s u l t s obtained from these i n d i c a t o r s are

mixed. The l a t t e r f a c t o r means that the d i f f e r e n t i n d i c a t o r s must be t e s t e d

f o r t h e i r v a l i d i t y i n d i f f e r e n t contexts. D. Bwy (1968) f i n d s , f o r example,

that domestic v i o l e n c e i n L a t i n America i s i n v e r s e l y r e l a t e d t o the annual

growth r a t e i n GNP per c a p i t a . R. Tanter and M. M i d l a r s k y (1968) f i n d that

a p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p e x i s t s between the same independent v a r i a b l e and r e ­

v o l u t i o n a r y v i o l e n c e i n 10 of t h e i r 14 cases. In t h i s study, moreover, the

ten c o n f i r m i n g cases are from areas of the Middle East and A s i a w h i le the

four cases r e f u t i n g the t e s t hypothesis occur i n L a t i n America. This suggests

tx«) i m p l i c a t i o n s : 1) the i n d i c a t o r s operate d i f f e r e n t l y i n d i f f e r e n t c u l t u r a l

contexts or (2) there are more powerful f a c t o r s not being measured which ac­

count for the v a r i a t i o n . Research should be undertaken to determine which

of these p o s s i b i l i t i e s i s most v a l i d . A recent study (I.K. and R.L. F e i e r a ­

bend, and B.A. Nesvold, 1969, p. 648) suggests the d i f f i c u l t i e s i n v o l v e d i n

r e l a t i n g sets of i n d i c a t o r s f o r p o l i t i c a l and economic development to v i o l e n c e

l e v e l s :

... a r a p i d increase i n primary school enrolment i s p o s i t i v e l y r e l a t e d to p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e , w h i l e a r a p i d increase i n GNP per c a p i t a i s n e g a t i v e l y r e l a t e d . ... the combination of f a c t o r s most c l o s e l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e i s a r a p i d spread i n s o c i e t y o f an awakened popul a t i o n , combined w i t h a slow r i s e i n income.

Turning to the i n t e n s i t y of negative support, we have l a r g e l y confined our-

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selves to a s e m i - i n t u i t i v e ranking of the behaviors l i s t e d i n Table 4:2, bas­

i n g t h i s ranking on the c r i t e r i o n of p h y s i c a l force used. Other i n d i c a t o r s ,

such as the frequency of behavior and the number of c a s u a l t i e s , are a l s o sug­

gested above. I t must be noted that we do not s p e c i f y the,number of persons

p a r t i c i p a t i n g as an i n d i c a t o r of i n t e n s i t y , since i n doing so we would con­

taminate our own c a t e g o r i e s . Our c r i t e r i a a l s o say nothing of the p o l i t i c a l

s i g n i f i c a n c e of the persons i n v o l v e d , as other studies have done (I.K. and

R.L. Feierabend, and B.A. Nesvold, 1969, p. 621). I t i s recognized that t h i s

omission may s e r i o u s l y weaken our rankings. However, we have made the omis­

si o n on the grounds that the same i n d i c a t o r has been used ( i n Chapter V) i n

ranking the dependent v a r i a b l e . We can conclude t h i s d i s c u s s i o n w i t h the

f o l l o w i n g hypotheses regarding negative support:

1 the higher the values on the s i z e dimension, the lower the l e v e l of t o t a l overt support;

2 the lower the values on the concentration dimension, the lower the l e v e l of t o t a l overt support. (The deviant case would be s e c e s s i o n ) ;

3 the higher the values on the i n t e n s i t y dimension, the lower the l e v e l of t o t a l overt support.

Rather than sum up t h i s e n t i r e chapter, we s h a l l simply discuss the

ways i n which p o s i t i v e and negative support ' f i t ' together and how they are

both r e l a t e d to t o t a l overt support. Negative support, of the type we d i s ­

cussed above, i s d i f f i c u l t to analyse and much depends on the researcher's

po i n t of view. On the one hand, negative support can be viewed simply as

the p o r t i o n of a p o s i t i v e - n e g a t i v e support continuum. In t h i s view, behaviors

can be arranged according to the p o s i t i v e or negative amounts of a q u a l i t y .

This continuum doesn't n e c e s s a r i l y c o n t a i n a zero point to separate p o s i t i v e

and negative p o r t i o n s , as Easton i n d i c a t e s by arguing that extreme negative

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support equals zero (1965, (a), p. 97). On the other hand, negative sup­

port may represent a q u a l i t a t i v e l y d i f f e r e n t phenomenological s e t - - s i m i l a r

i n i m p l i c a t i o n i f not i n d e f i n i t i o n to M. Kaplan's s t e p - - l e v e l f u n c t i o n

(1957, p. 5). I n t h i s view, a c t i v i t i e s such as r i o t i n g or p a r t i c i p a t i n g

i n a general s t r i k e are i n t r i n s i c a l l y d i f f e r e n t from an a c t i v i t y such as

v o t i n g f o r an extremist p a r t y . Assume f o r the moment that the r i o t e r and

the extremist voter have something i n common: the overthrow of the present

set of a u t h o r i t i e s . Both a c t i v i t i e s are p a r t , i n t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e categor­

i e s , of the negative support u n i v e r s e . Given these p o i n t s , ask the f o l l o w ­

ing question: i s o p p o s i t i o n to the a u t h o r i t i e s w i t h i n the r u l e s of p o l i t i ­

c a l c o n f l i c t ( v o t i n g i n t h i s case) the same as o p p o s i t i o n outside those

r u l e s ? I would contend that the two phenomena are not the same. Here we

can add to the chapter's i n i t i a l argument: negative 'conventional' behaviors

are more supportive than negative 'non-conventional' behaviors. Our a n a l y s i s

f i t s most c l o s e l y w i t h a research s t r a t e g y which measures p o s i t i v e and nega­

t i v e support as p a r t s o f the same continuum. Our concluding a n a l y s i s , how­

ever, does not p e r f e c t l y f i t t h i s p a t t e r n . I t i s ther e f o r e most c l o s e l y r e ­

l a t e d to the s t r a t e g y which measures p o s i t i v e and negative support separately

i n each of the subcategories of 'conventional' and 'non-conventional' support.

The hypotheses presented f o r negative support do not then c o n f l i c t w i t h pre­

vious hypotheses concerning "high" and "low" l e v e l s of t o t a l overt support.

CHAPTER V

CONCLUSIONS

In t h i s chapter our task i s twofold. F i r s t , we w i l l examine the

connection between support v a r i a t i o n and v a r i a t i o n i n system s t r e s s . Second,

we w i l l present a b r i e f c r i t i q u e of our scheme's u t i l i t y . We are l i m i t e d i n

our f i r s t endeavor i n that we can only present simple tendency statements.

We are a l s o l i m i t e d by the f a c t that the combinations of our three dimensions

are so numerous as to preclude a thorough a n a l y s i s of each p o s s i b i l i t y . We

s h a l l t h e r e f o r e continue our a n a l y s i s to those independent-dependent r e l a ­

t i o n s h i p s which seem to give the most i n s i g h t i n t o our scheme.

Covert Support and S t r e s s . Two very s i m p l i s t i c hypotheses f o l l o w from our

previous d i s c u s s i o n of support. They are: a) i f t o t a l covert support i n ­

creases p o s i t i v e l y , then s t r e s s i s l i k e l y to decrease; and (b) i f t o t a l

covert support decreases, then s t r e s s i s l i k e l y to incr e a s e . We make one

TABLE 5:1 SIMPLE PERMUTATIONS OF COVERT

SUPPORT DIMENSIONS

Permut- SIZE CONCENTRATION INTENSITY a t i o n #: Low High Low High Low High

1 X X X 2 X X X 3 X X X 4 X X X 5 X . X X 6 X X X 7 X X X 8 X X X

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major assumption about the data: i t must be s u s c e p t i b l e to i n t e r v a l s c a l i n g

at l e a s t (K. Janda, 1964). Assuming t h a t our dimensions are a d d i t i v e , we can

dichotomize the range of v a r i a t i o n and present the p o s s i b l e combinations of

covert support. The eight permutations are presented i n Table 5:1, using

'high' and 'low' as the c a t e g o r i e s of v a r i a t i o n which includ e the summation

of p o s i t i v e and negative values. At the n a t i o n a l l e v e l of a n a l y s i s , the f i r s t

two combinations of covert support dimensions are u n l i k e l y . We s h a l l there­

fore begin our d i s c u s s i o n w i t h permutations 3 and 7, and 5 and 8.

Holding c o n c e n t r a t i o n and i n t e n s i t y constant at low and h i g h values

r e s p e c t i v e l y , we can vary support s i z e . We hypothesize that as s i z e decreases,

s t r e s s w i l l l i k e l y i n c r e a s e . Using our c a t e g o r i e s of e f f i c a c y and a l i e n a t i o n ,

we are p o s t u l a t i n g that as a l i e n a t e d persons increase as a percentage of the

p o p u l a t i o n , s t r e s s i n c r e a s e s . Holding both c o n c e n t r a t i o n and i n t e n s i t y con­

stant at low values, decreases i n support s i z e w i l l probably produce i n c r e a s ­

es i n s t r e s s . The e f f e c t of covert support i n t e n s i t y i s somewhat more d i f f i ­

c u l t to analyse. Comparing p o s s i b i l i t i e s 3 and 4 i n Table 5:1, we hold sup­

port s i z e and c o n c e n t r a t i o n at high and low values r e s p e c t i v e l y . Varying

i n t e n s i t y , we p o s t u l a t e that s t r e s s increases as i n t e n s i t y decreases. Hold­

i n g c o n c e n t r a t i o n constant at a low value, we p o s t u l a t e that s t r e s s increases

as both i n t e n s i t y and s i z e decrease simultaneously. I n the f i r s t hypothesis,

the source of the d e c l i n e i n i n t e n s i t y must be i n v e s t i g a t e d . For example,.are

system outputs the source of the decline? I f they are, part of the v a r i a t i o n

* Easton terms the support extended i n r e t u r n f o r p a r t i c u l a r outputs s p e c i f i c support (1965, (b), p. 272). Generalized attachments are termed d i f f u s e support. Our d i s c u s s i o n has tended to r e l e g a t e these two support types to an output*—^support a n a l y s i s , which l i e s outside the scope of t h i s paper. We can s t i l l p o s t u l a t e that decreases i n s p e c i f i c support w i l l leave the l e v e l of s t r e s s unchanged i f d i f f u s e support remains high.

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i n s t r e s s may be derived from v a r i a b l e s such as system resources, the r e s ­

ponsiveness of the a u t h o r i t i e s and the amount of info r m a t i o n they possess (E.

J . Kolb, 1966, p. 9 esp.). In the second hypothesis, we must ask i f o v e r a l l

i n t e n s i t y has increased, but the number of negative supporters has increased

as a percentage of the t o t a l 'support' p o p u l a t i o n . Supporters r e g i s t e r l o y ­

a l t i e s f o r narrowly-based p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s , i g n o r i n g the f a c t that t h e i r chan­

ces of forming the government are r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l . The t o t a l i n t e n s i t y o f

support f o r the three p o l i t i c a l o b j e c t s decreases, since support i s d i r e c t e d

i n t e n s e l y toward the r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s of s p e c i a l i n t e r e s t s . Observing t h i s

p o s s i b i l i t y , S.M. L i p s e t remarks:

P a r t i e s which are never o r i e n t e d toward g a i n i n g a m a j o r i t y seek to win the greatest p o s s i b l e e l e c ­t o r a t e support from a l i m i t e d base--a "workers" party w i l l accentuate w o r k i n g — c l a s s i n t e r e s t s , and a party appealing p r i m a r i l y to small business­men w i l l do the same f o r i t s group (1960, p. 80).

I f the party system i s considered to be a subsystem of the p o l i t i c a l system,

we may f i n d t h a t exchanges between the two decrease as i d e n t i f i c a t i o n s f o r

s p l i n t e r p a r t i e s increase i n i n t e n s i t y . We may a l s o f i n d that our scheme

for o p e r a t i o n a l i z i n g the dependent v a r i a b l e i s inadequate i n t h i s case. Given

the d i f f i c u l t y which s p l i n t e r p a r t i e s have i n aggregating t h e i r support to

form winning c o a l i t i o n s , the party or c o a l i t i o n i n o f f i c e may not change even

though support s i z e and i n t e n s i t y have decreased. Neither i s the regime

l i k e l y to change, given the r e l u c t a n c e of the incumbents t o change the favor­

able d i s t r i b u t i o n of power. However, change may be detected i n the p o l i t i c a l

community, given that increases i n support i n t e n s i t y f o r p a r t i c u l a r i s t i c group­

ings may a l t e r the area of l i f e p o l i t i c i z e d .

We s h a l l now hold covert support s i z e constant at a low value,.and

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vary the e f f e c t of i n t e n s i t y and c o n c e n t r a t i o n . We p o s t u l a t e the s t r e s s i s

l i k e l y to increase i f i n t e n s i t y increases and concentration decreases. The

assumption i s : the adverse e f f e c t on s t r e s s caused by the decreasing con­

c e n t r a t i o n values i s stronger than the p o s i t i v e e f f e c t of an increase i n the

p r o p o r t i o n of supporters who are i n t e n s e l y p o s i t i v e . I f c o n c e n t r a t i o n and

i n t e n s i t y both d e c l i n e , the increase i n s t r e s s i s l i k e l y to be greater s t i l l .

I f c o n c e n t r a t i o n and i n t e n s i t y both incr e a s e , the e f f e c t on s t r e s s i s much

more d i f f i c u l t to analyse. We can ignore the e f f e c t of i n t e n s i t y and examine

the r e l a t i o n s h i p between s t r e s s and the low s i z e and concentration values.

I n t e r v e n i n g v a r i a b l e s such as the resources a v a i l a b l e to the supporters and

to other groups, the c a p a b i l i t y of the system and the needs of the system may

modify v a r i a t i o n i n s t r e s s . For example, does the system 'need' large numbers

of covert supporters, or i s overt support more r e l e v a n t ? Is the small number

of supporters s t r a t e g i c a l l y placed or do they form one group i n the context

o f many important groups? The v a r i a b l e s contained i n questions such as these

are l i k e l y to modify the v a r i a t i o n i n s t r e s s caused by low s i z e and concentra­

t i o n values of covert support. We may now t u r n t o overt support, bearing i n

mind the l i m i t e d purposes of our d i s c u s s i o n .

Overt Support and S t r e s s . Two assumptions must be r e i t e r a t e d at the begin­

n i n g of t h i s d i s c u s s i o n . F i r s t , we have subsumed p o s i t i v e and negative sup­

port w i t h i n one 'increase-decrease' range. 'Increases' on any dimension i s

t h e r e f o r e equated w i t h increases i n the p r o p o r t i o n of p o s i t i v e supporters.

Second, we are d i s c u s s i n g the aggregate, n a t i o n a l l e v e l of a n a l y s i s .

The simplest hypothesis i s : i f s i z e and i n t e n s i t y increase and con­

c e n t r a t i o n decreases, the degree of s t r e s s i s l i k e l y t o decrease. Conversely,

i f s i z e and i n t e n s i t y decrease and concentration i n c r e a s e s , the degree of

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s t r e s s i s l i k e l y t o i n c r e a s e . We can d i f f e r e n t i a t e f u r t h e r by i n v e s t i g a t i n g

the e f f e c t of v a r i o u s combinations of our dimensions. Holding c o n c e n t r a t i o n

and i n t e n s i t y constant at a low l e v e l , we can vary the s i z e of support. We

p o s t u l a t e that the degree of s t r e s s increases as the s i z e of support decreases.

There are some d i f f i c u l t i e s . U t i l i z i n g e l e c t o r a l data, low support s i z e may

represent the d i f f e r e n c e between p o s i t i v e and negative support values, or, i t

may represent low p o s i t i v e turnout and a large body of non-voters. Discount­

ing the e f f e c t of covert support, we hypothesize that the former s i t u a t i o n

w i l l produce gr e a t e r increases i n s t r e s s than the l a t t e r i f c o n c e n t r a t i o n and

i n t e n s i t y are low. Holding support s i z e and i n t e n s i t y constant at low v a l u e s ,

we can vary support c o n c e n t r a t i o n i n order to produce a d d i t i o n a l examples. I f

c o n c e n t r a t i o n decreases and the above c o n d i t i o n s h o l d , s t r e s s i s l i k e l y to i n ­

crease. The small number of supporters i s evenly dispersed throughout the

p o p u l a t i o n , and i t s e f f e c t i v e n e s s as a u n i t i s thereby undercut. On the other

hand, we can vary support s i z e and i n t e n s i t y , h o l d i n g concentration constant

at a low value. I f s i z e and i n t e n s i t y i n c r e a s e , then s t r e s s i s l i k e l y to de­

crease; i f s i z e and i n t e n s i t y decrease, then s t r e s s i s l i k e l y to i n c r e a s e . The

l a t t e r hypothesis represents high l e v e l s o f p a r t i c i p a t i o n which are d i r e c t e d

toward pro- and anti-system p a r t i e s , or which are channeled through s o c i e t a l

cleavages.

In c o n c l u s i o n , i t i s important t o note that the above hypotheses do

not n e c e s s a r i l y imply a d i r e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p between support and s t r e s s . For

example, f l u c t u a t i o n s i n the number of voters may or may not be accompanied

by changes i n the p o l i t i c a l o b j e c t s . The a n a l y s t would wish to account f o r

the d i r e c t i o n of the f l u c t u a t i o n as w e l l as i t s t a r g e t . The former i s l a r g e l y

accounted f o r by our s i z e dimension, while the l a t t e r i s subsumed by our i n -

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t e n s i t y dimension. I t i s a l s o u s e f u l to have i n d i c a t o r s of p o l i t i c a l object

change and these are presented i n Table 5:2. The length of the arrows i n

TABLE 5:2

INDICATORS OF OBJECT CHANGE AND THE POSSIBLE EXTENT OF CHANGE

Selec t e d Behaviors implying change and the p o s s i b l e extent of change

P o l i t i c a l Objects

A u t h o r i t i e s Regime P o l i t i c a l Community

No. of Objects changed:

secession

g u e r r i l l a war

r e v o l u t i o n

coup d'etat

a s s a s s i n a t i o n

P o l i t i c a l e x i l e s

Executive r e s i g n a t i o n

Cabinet r e s i g n a t i o n —

Government turnover —

the t a b l e represent the p o s s i b l e extent of object change, based on the d e f i n ­

i t i o n s of each i n d i c a t o r i n Appendix I . These i n d i c a t o r s apply e q u a l l y w e l l

to e i t h e r a covert or an overt support a n a l y s i s , although the d e f i n i t i o n s and

the formulations regarding the extent of change are somewhat a r b i t r a r y .

The a n a l y s t must a l s o consider the p o s s i b i l i t y that p o s i t i v e support

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may be extended to a p o r t i o n of the p o l i t i c a l o b j e c t s , w h i le negative sup­

port i s extended to the remainder. For example, decreases i n the s i z e of

e l e c t o r a l support may be s u f f i c i e n t t o change the incumbent set of author­

i t i e s . We may t h e r e f o r e say that a c e r t a i n degree of s t r e s s occurs. I f the

e l e c t i o n takes place w i t h i n the e s t a b l i s h e d regime r u l e s , then we can say

that the regime has been supported (G.H. Scholten, 1968, p. 224). The t o t a l

amount of s t r e s s present on t h i s s i n g l e occasion would have to be negative,

since our dependent v a r i a b l e does not have categories of normal object s t a t e s .

We cannot subtract s t r e s s values from non-stress values and the p o s i t i v e sup­

port i n the above example i s l o s t . This l i n e of a n a l y s i s could be developed

much f a r t h e r and i t s r e s u l t s could g r e a t l y improve our r a t h e r crude dependent

v a r i a b l e .

The a n a l y s t must a l s o keep i n mind the i n t e r v e n i n g or r e i n f o r c i n g

e f f e c t s of system c a p a b i l i t y and system need. The i n t e r a c t i o n between p o l ­

i t i c a l o b j e c t s may be e f f i c i e n t l y channeled and small amounts of p o s i t i v e

support may be u t i l i z e d e f f e c t i v e l y , r e s u l t i n g i n l i t t l e increase i n s t r e s s .

The e f f e c t of low l e v e l s ofsupport may a l s o be moderated by the needs of

the system. The system may have few demands to process and i t s need f o r

support could be consequently low. The e f f e c t of a c t i v i t i e s i n the i n t e r n a ­

t i o n a l environment i s a l s o c r u c i a l . D e c l i n e s i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l support f o r

the a c t i v i t i e s of the system--domestically or i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y — m a y undercut

the e f f e c t of h i g h l e v e l s of support at the domestic l e v e l . Change may

t h e r e f o r e occur i n p o l i t i c a l o b jects despite c l e a r i n d i c a t i o n s of high domes­

t i c support. I n our a n a l y s i s , the e f f e c t of these v a r i a b l e s has been l a r g e l y

ignored. However, we n eglect them not from an underestimation of t h e i r impor­

tance, but r a t h e r from an e s t i m a t i o n of the content necessary f o r a narrowly-

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focused, e x p l o r a t o r y a n a l y s i s . Further research i s re q u i r e d to place a l l

the necessary v a r i a b l e s i n a f u l l y o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d systems framework; we

have attempted to d e a l w i t h j u s t one.

Covert and Overt Support: T h e i r Combined E f f e c t on S t r e s s . An a n a l y s i s of

the combined v a r i a t i o n of covert and overt support, and i t s e f f e c t on s t r e s s ,

i s exceedingly complex. Examining the p o s s i b l e combinations of covert and

overt support dimensions, we f i n d t h a t there are s i x t y - f o u r p o s s i b i l i t i e s .

T h is f i g u r e holds only i f we r e t a i n our dichotomous choices of 'high' and

'low', and i f p o s i t i v e and negative support are subsumed w i t h i n these dicho­

tomous c a t e g o r i e s . Since there i s a large number of p o s s i b i l i t i e s , and since

we do not have data to s i m p l i f y t h e i r p r e s e n t a t i o n , we w i l l only discuss two

combinations b r i e f l y . These combinations appear i n Table 5:3.

TABLE 5:3

TWO PERMUTATIONS OF COVERT AND OVERT SUPPORT

SIZE CONCENTRATION INTENSITY

Covert Overt Covert Overt Covert Overt Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High

Example #1 V a r i e s V a r i e s X X X X

Example #2 X X Varies V a r i e s X X

In the f i r s t combination we w i l l vary the s i z e of covert and overt

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support. The c o n c e n t r a t i o n of both c a t e g o r i e s of support i s held constant

at low values. The i n t e n s i t y of covert support i s h i g h and that of overt

support i s low. We can now make the f o l l o w i n g hypotheses:

I f covert and overt support decrease simul­taneously i n s i z e , then s t r e s s i s l i k e l y to i n c r e a s e ;

I f covert and overt support increase simul­taneously i n s i z e , then s t r e s s i s l i k e l y to decrease;

I f covert support decreases and overt support increases i n s i z e , s t r e s s i s l i k e l y to increase;

I f covert support increases and overt support decreases i n s i z e , s t r e s s then i s not l i k e l y to i n c r e a s e .

The f i r s t two hypotheses are s t r a i g h t - f o r w a r d , since they represent l o g i c a l l y

opposite events. Overt support approaches low values on a l l dimensions, con­

t r i b u t i n g to an increase i n s t r e s s . Covert support has low values on a l l

dimensions,save f o r the h i g h value on the i n t e n s i t y dimension. However, t h i s

s i n g l e value i s u n l i k e l y to moderate the negative e f f e c t s of the other f i v e

v alues, and s t r e s s i s t h e r e f o r e l i k e l y to i n c r e a s e . The second p a i r of hy-

ptheses are more d i f f i c u l t to analyse, since they represent mixed types. The

incre a s e i n overt support s i z e i n hypothesis 3 l o g i c a l l y i m p l i e s a decrease

i n s t r e s s . A greater p r o p o r t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n i s a c t i v e l y extending

t h e i r support to the p o l i t i c a l o b j e c t s , and t h i s a c t i v i t y may or may not be

e l e c t i o n - o r i e n t e d . On the other hand, a greater p r o p o r t i o n of the population

holds negative opinions about the p o l i t i c a l o b jects. In some ways, t h i s sup-

port combination corresponds to a s i t u a t i o n i n which the a u t h o r i t i e s are r e ­

e l e c t e d time a f t e r time, but i n which i t becomes i n c r e a s i n g l y d i f f i c u l t to

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* f i n d persons who h o l d supportive o p i n i o n s . We argue that the negative e f f e c t s

of a decrease i n covert support s i z e are l i k e l y to outweigh the p o s i t i v e e f ­

f e c t s of overt support i n c r e a s e s . The f a c t that overt i n t e n s i t y i s low,while

covert i n t e n s i t y i s h i g h would seem to re-enforce the n o t i o n that the p o s i t i v e

e f f e c t of overt s i z e increases are short-term. We would also argue that overt

support would probably decrease as the f r u s t r a t i o n due to a lack of e l e c t o r a l

a l t e r n a t i v e s increased and the number of persons f r u s t r a t e d increased. F i n a l l y ,

we would hypothesize that the p o l i t i c a l community i s the p o l i t i c a l object most

l i k e l y to change. The incumbent set of a u t h o r i t i e s may r e t a i n s u f f i c i e n t e l e c ­

t o r a l support to remain i n o f f i c e , and i t i s l i k e l y t hat regime r u l e s w i l l be

followed f o r a time. However, the p o l a r i z a t i o n of opinions i s i n c r e a s i n g l y

l i k e l y and p o l i t i c a l a c t i v i t y i s l i k e l y to become i n c r e a s i n g l y s a l i e n t .

Our second example i n Table 5:3 v a r i e s c o n c e n t r a t i o n values. The

s i z e of covert and overt support i s h e l d constant at low values; the i n t e n ­

s i t y of both types of support i s a l s o held constant at low values. We can

now make the f o l l o w i n g hypotheses: 1 I f covert and overt concentration values decrease

simultaneously, s t r e s s i s l i k e l y to increase; 2 I f covert and overt c o n c e n t r a t i o n values increase

simultaneously, then s t r e s s i s l i k e l y to decrease;

3 I f covert support c o n c e n t r a t i o n decreases and overt c o n c e n t r a t i o n i n c r e a s e s , s t r e s s i s not l i k e l y to increase;

4 I f covert support c o n c e n t r a t i o n increases w h i l e overt concentration decreases, s t r e s s i s l i k e l y t o i n c r e a s e .

* Save f o r the f a c t that i t s share of the votes cast has d e c l i n e d i n successive e l e c t i o n s , t h e o v e r t - c o v e r t support composite for the S o c i a l C r e d i t Party i n B r i t i s h Columbia i s analogous to our d i s c u s s i o n , at l e a s t on the surface.

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The f i r s t two p o s s i b i l i t i e s seem l o g i c a l , but the reasons f o r t h e i r hypoth­

e s i z e d r e s u l t s are not immediately obvious. We must r e c a l l that 'high' and

'low' represent proportions of a t o t a l support p o p u l a t i o n . The absolute num­

bers of p o s i t i v e supporters may w e l l be l a r g e , but t h e i r s i z e r e l a t i v e to the

number of negative supporters may be s m a l l . A l t e r n a t i v e l y , the number of p o s i ­

t i v e supporters may be small r e l a t i v e to a l a r g e , a p a t h e t i c base p o p u l a t i o n .

Taking hypothesis 1, we would argue that decreases i n conc e n t r a t i o n given

roughly equal opposing groups i s more l i k e l y to increase s t r e s s than are de­

creases i n co n c e n t r a t i o n , given a l a r g e l y a p a t h e t i c p o p u l a t i o n . Examining hy­

pothesis 2, the f o l l o w i n g argument can be made: increases i n co n c e n t r a t i o n i n

the context of the former a l t e r n a t i v e are l e s s l i k e l y to decrease s t r e s s , t h a n

are c o n c e n t r a t i o n increases i n context of a l a r g e l y a p a t h e t i c p o p u l a t i o n . Es­

s e n t i a l l y , we are arguing t h a t the d i s p e r s i o n of p o s i t i v e support whose e f f e c ­

t i v e n e s s i s already undermined by o p p o s i t i o n groups i s l i k e l y t o increase s t r e s s .

On the other hand, the d i s p e r s i o n of p o s i t i v e support i n an ap a t h e t i c popula­

t i o n w i l l decrease the e f f e c t i v e n e s s of the support membership, but, compared

to our f i r s t a l t e r n a t i v e , i t i s l e s s l i k e l y t o increase s t r e s s .

Our t h i r d and f o u r t h hypotheses are extremely tenuous and data may

show that the converse r e l a t i o n s h i p s hold as w e l l . We can s t i l l present the

r a t i o n a l e f o r these hypotheses, i f only f o r the sake of i l l u s t r a t i o n . The

prime assumption behind the t h i r d hypothesis i s th a t the d i s p e r s i o n of covert

support i s l i k e l y to o f f s e t the negative e f f e c t of overt concentration i n -

creases. The combination has a rough analogue i n developing c o u n t r i e s . The

number of overt supporters i n such c o u n t r i e s tends to be small i n comparison

w i t h the large base p o p u l a t i o n . The overt supporters tend t o be concentrated

* The f a c t o r which does not f i t most developing c o u n t r i e s i s the low i n t e n s i t y of overt support.

- 99 -

due to the r e s t r i c t e d r u l e s of access and p a r t i c i p a t i o n (A. Zolberg, 1964,

pp. 15-27 and pp. 130-134). Covert support tends t o be dispersed and i t s

i n t e n s i t y tends to be low outside the formal governmental s t r u c t u r e or out­

side the e l i t e membership groups. The tenuousness of our hypothesis i s under­

l i n e d by the f a c t t h a t developing c o u n t r i e s may have two p o l i t i c a l systems

w i t h i n one t e r r i t o r i a l boundary. Instrumental covert support i s u n l i k e l y ,

owing to the l i m i t e d resources of the modernizing p o l i t i c a l system. As we

remarked i n Chapter I I I , covert support may be extended from the t r a d i t i o n a l

to the modernizing system, i f the l a t t e r frames i t s a c t i v i t i e s i n t r a d i t i o n a l

terms. However, a gap s t i l l e x i s t s between two sets of objects each of which

have d i f f e r e n t , or s l i g h t l y o verlapping, sets of supporters. Consequently,

the v a l i d i t y of our hypothesis i s probably short-term. The time f o r which

i t i s v a l i d i s l i k e l y to depend on the nature of systemic outputs and the

resources a v a i l a b l e to t r a d i t i o n a l groups.

The assumption behind our f o u r t h hypothesis i s that the negative

e f f e c t s of an increase i n covert support c o n c e n t r a t i o n are stronger than

the e f f e c t s o f decreases, i n overt support c o n c e n t r a t i o n . The l e v e l of s t r e s s

i s t h e r e f o r e l i k e l y to increase p a r t i c u l a r l y i f the low s i z e value represents

roughly equal p o s i t i v e and negative groups. We may add that the low i n t e n s i t y

value i s e q u a l l y c r u c i a l . I t discounts the p o s s i b i l i t y that covert support

which i s both h i g h l y concentrated and intense may have p o s i t i v e e f f e c t s on

s t r e s s . I f the m a j o r i t y of the popu l a t i o n i s a p a t h e t i c , the p o s s i b i l i t y of

p o s i t i v e e f f e c t s i s enhanced. We can conclude t h i s d i s c u s s i o n of the com­

bined e f f e c t of covert and overt support by r e i t e r a t i n g the f a c t that our

arguments are non-exhaustive. We have pointed out some of the l i m i t a t i o n s

o f a combined a n a l y s i s as w e l l as the weakness of some of the l i n k s between

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support combinations and s t r e s s . Our d i s c u s s i o n would have been f a c i l i t a t e d

by the p r e s e n t a t i o n of data but, f o r now, our i l l u s t r a t i v e hypotheses must

s u f f i c e . We can now t u r n to a b r i e f examination of our scheme as a whole.

Summary and C r i t i q u e . We have followed Easton's conception of support f a i r l y

c l o s e l y i n the sense that we have used covert and overt support as our major

ca t e g o r i e s of behavior. From t h i s point on, our attempts to o p e r a t i o n a l i z e

s t r e s s as the dependent v a r i a b l e and support as the independent v a r i a b l e

have led us t o diverge s u b s t a n t i a l l y from h i s scheme. We s h a l l proceed to

di s c u s s the dependent v a r i a b l e , the dimensions of support and the i n d i c a t o r s

of support i n an attempt to estimate the u t i l i t y of our scheme.

In our a n a l y s i s , we discounted system p e r s i s t e n c e as a major focus

of i n q u i r y and we pointed out the d i f f i c u l t y of a s s i g n i n g e m p i r i c a l r e f e r e n t s

t o system change. We r e d e f i n e d Easton's n o t i o n of s t r e s s so as to disconnect

i t from the two e s s e n t i a l v a r i a b l e s he assigns t o the operation of a system.

I t i s our c o n t e n t i o n that these a l t e r a t i o n s b r i n g a systems a n a l y s i s of

p o l i t i c a l l i f e c l o s e r to the stages of data-gathering and d a t a - a n a l y s i s . Des­

p i t e t h i s s i n g u l a r advantage, our scheme f o r the dependent v a r i a b l e is. some­

what weak. I t i s weak i n that i t i s not s e n s i t i v e to the simultaneous occur­

rence of support f o r one object and non-support f o r another o b j e c t . The de­

pendent v a r i a b l e does not rank v a r y i n g degrees of s t r e s s on a negative s c a l e

and normal system s t a t e s on a p o s i t i v e s c a l e . A zero value on our s c a l e

t h e r e f o r e represents a s t a t e of non-stress and anything above zero represents

some degree of s t r e s s . I n a d d i t i o n , we cannot be sure i f some values which

would show a degree of s t r e s s on our s c a l e are a c t u a l l y spurious i n the r e a l

world. The example of i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z e d o f f i c e - t u r n o v e r i n F i n l a n d gives

some credence to t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y .

- 101 -

Two f i n a l p o i n t s should be made concerning systemic behavior, of

which s t r e s s i s a p a r t . F i r s t , a d d i t i o n a l research i s needed t o add empir­

i c a l r e f e r e n t s to the three p o l i t i c a l o b j e c t s . We presented s e v e r a l i n d i c a ­

t o r s of object change i n Table 5:2, but t h i s f o r m u l a t i o n i s extremely crude

and i t t e l l s us l i t t l e o f the objects themselves. Our d e f i n i t i o n s of the

p o l i t i c a l o b jects are s a t i s f a c t o r y to the extent that they d e l i n e a t e phenomena

w i t h i n a narrow range. Further d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n i s necessary to broaden the

p o s s i b l e universe of object c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Our b r i e f a l l u s i o n s to l e a d e r s h i p

s t y l e s , i s s u e types, and s k i l l s serve t o i n d i c a t e the d i r e c t i o n of a d d i t i o n a l

research. Second, more p r e c i s e notions of system boundary and linkages between

p o l i t i c a l o b j e c t s are necessary. Examining the concept of system boundary i n

Chapter I , we pointed out the l i m i t e d u t i l i t y of e x p l a i n i n g p o l i t i c a l behavior

s o l e l y i n terms of n o n - p o l i t i c a l behavior. Disregarding the i n d i r e c t p o l i t i c a l

content of some of our i n d i c a t o r s , t h i s statement holds true f o r a major por­

t i o n of our a n a l y s i s . Much of our emphasis on e l e c t o r a l behavior, party systems,

and 'pro'- and 'anti-system' v o t i n g derived from our perception of support as

a p o l i t i c a l concept. Our arguments concerning system boundaries are l e s s than

precise,however,and much a d d i t i o n a l work i s r e q u i r e d . A l t e r n a t i v e l y , Easton's

theory should be r e w r i t t e n p r o p e r l y , l a b e l l i n g p o l i t i c a l support as a ' w i t h i n -

put ' . The l i n k s between the p o l i t i c a l objects are a l s o important, since t h e i r

nature may w e l l determine system c a p a b i l i t y i f environmental resources are i g ­

nored. One p o s s i b l e p e r s p e c t i v e would take account of the distance between the

p o l i t i c a l o b j e c t s , using the a u t h o r i t i e s ' p e r c e p t i o n of the l i m i t s of t h e i r

r o l e s or comparing s o c i a l i z a t i o n symbols w i t h speeches by the a u t h o r i t i e s .

We have attempted to o p e r a t i o n a l i z e Easton's support concept as our

- 102 -

independent v a r i a b l e . To do so, we assigned three dimensions of v a r i a t i o n

to p o l i t i c a l support: s i z e , c o n c e n t r a t i o n and i n t e n s i t y . We defined each

of the p r o p e r t i e s r e l a t i v e l y p r e c i s e l y i n order to transform support from a

r a t h e r amorphous concept to a t r u e v a r i a b l e . Whether we d i d i n f a c t make

support a v a r i a b l e and whether or not we proposed the most u s e f u l dimensions

i s subject to e m p i r i c a l and t h e o r e t i c a l i n v e s t i g a t i o n .

There are perhaps two drawbacks to our dimension a n a l y s i s . F i r s t ,

our scheme i s based on the measurement of support at f i x e d i n s t a n t s of time.

Duration i s not included as a dimension. However, we would argue that our

r u l e s of a n a l y s i s do not a l t o g e t h e r preclude support measurements over time;

they are simply excluded from extensive d i s c u s s i o n i n t h i s paper. Second,

we have not o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d and accounted f o r demands, outputs and feedback.

Nor have we c l o s e l y examined the e f f e c t of i n t e r n a t i o n a l behavior on domes­

t i c support l e v e l s ; we have merely a l l u d e d to i t s importance. As a conse­

quence, t h i s a n a l y s i s cannot pretend to be a complete examination of Easton's

model. I t must stand or f a l l on i t s examination of two p o r t i o n s of that

model: p o l i t i c a l support and s t r e s s .

The u t i l i t y o f our i n d i c a t o r s i s the next t o p i c f o r d i s c u s s i o n . We

f i n d t h a t we have gathered a large number of i n d i c a t o r s from a large body

of l i t e r a t u r e . We have a l s o p o s t u l a t e d a r e l a t i o n s h i p between these i n d i ­

c a t o r s and the concept of p o l i t i c a l support. The l o g i c a l defense of these

i n d i c a t o r s i s contained i n the t e x t and l i t t l e advantage can be gained through

i t s r e p e t i t i o n here. I t i s s u f f i c i e n t to note that some of the i n d i c a t o r s

* P a r t i c u l a r l y r e l e v a n t i n d i c a t o r s , i n conjunction w i t h the various works i n which they appear, are presented i n Appendix I I I .

- 103 -

have r a t h e r obvious l i n k s w i t h support, w h i l e others have an i n f e r r e d r e l a ­

t i o n s h i p to support. While e m p i r i c a l defense of the i n d i c a t o r s i s not pre­

sented i n t h i s paper and many of our l o g i c a l a s s e r t i o n s must await e m p i r i c a l

v e r i f i c a t i o n u t i l i z i n g s e v e r a l cases, a drawback inherent i n one of our i n d i ­

cator sets should a l s o be pointed out.

The problem concerns an overlap between i n d i c a t o r s of our concen­

t r a t i o n dimension and one method of d e s c r i b i n g the p o l i t i c a l system. In our

d i s c u s s i o n of concentration,we set up i n d i c a t o r s of communications develop­

ment and i n d i c a t o r s of r e s t r i c t i o n s on p o l i t i c a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n and access.

Our hypothesis s t a t e d : the higher the values scored on i n d i c a t o r s such as %

literate,newspapers per standard p o p u l a t i o n unit,and the number of p o s i t i o n s

'open 1, the lower the degree of support c o n c e n t r a t i o n . A formula t i o n of sup­

port c o n c e n t r a t i o n i n terms o f these i n d i c a t o r s seems v a l i d - u n t i l we are

faced w i t h d e s c r i b i n g the development o f the p o l i t i c a l system..In our a n a l y s i s ,

we were forced to use system c a p a b i l i t i e s as a s u b s t i t u t e but t h i s i s not very

s a t i s f a c t o r y i n i t s present form. An a l t e r n a t i v e i s to a t t r i b u r e another set

of i n d i c a t o r s to our co n c e n t r a t i o n dimension, and reserve i n d i c a t o r s of devel­

opment f o r d e s c r i b i n g the system.

We can conclude t h i s a n a l y s i s by no t i n g t h a t the o p e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n

o f a m a c r o - p o l i t i c a l concept i s complex task. The l i n k s between the concept

and the p o s s i b l e bodies of data are o f t e n tenuous and the researcher i s some­

times forced to make a s s e r t i o n s which may be proven questionable by the data

he i n d i c a t e s . I t i s necessary to make these l i n k s , f r a g i l e as they may be,since

macro-concepts have l i t t l e u t i l i t y on a s t r i c t l y a b s t r a c t plane. The present

research has attempted to i n d i c a t e e m p i r i c a l content f o r one such concept and

the attempt stands or f a l l s according t o the u t i l i t y of i t s suggestions.

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Wyckoff, T. 'The Role of the M i l i t a r y i n L a t i n American P o l i t i e s ' . Western P o l i t i c a l Q u a r t e r l y , V o l . 13 #3, September 1960, pp. 745-765.

Zolberg, A.R. Creating P o l i t i c a l Order. Chicago: Rand McNally and Company, 1966.

APPENDIX I

DEFINITIONS OF INDICATORS OF OBJECT CHANGE

Demonstrations Peaceful p u b l i c gathering of at l e a s t one hundred people . f o r the purpose of d i s p l a y i n g t h e i r o p p o s i t i o n to govern­ment p o l i c i e s or a u t h o r i t y . This includes student s t r i k e s . (Rummel, 1965, p. 205)

General S t r i k e Any s t r i k e of i n d u s t r i a l or s e r v i c e workers that i n v o l v e s at l e a s t one employer and t h a t i s aimed at n a t i o n a l govern­ment p o l i c i e s or a u t h o r i t i e s . (Rummel, 1965, p. 205)

R i o t Any v i o l e n t gathering of at l e a s t one hundred persons. The term v i o l e n c e r e f e r s t o the use of p h y s i c a l f o r c e , and the existence of a r i o t i s g e n e r a l l y evidenced by the destruc­t i o n of property, people being k i l l e d or wounded ... (Rummel, 1965, p. 205)

Coups Any s u c c e s s f u l or u n s u c c e s s f u l attempt by members of the m i l i t a r y or the p o l i c e or by members of the r u l i n g e l i t e to overthrow the c e n t r a l government or replace the execu­t i v e through the use of force or t h r e a t of f o r c e . (Rummel, 1965)

A s s a s s i n a t i o n A p o l i t i c a l l y motivated murder of a h i g h government o f f i c i a l or member of a p o l i t i c a l p a r t y .

Small-Scale G u e r r i l l a War

G u e r r i l l a wars i s defined as armed a c t i v i t y on the part of bands of c i t i z e n s or i r r e g u l a r forces aimed at the overthrow of the e x i s t i n g a u t h o r i t i e s . There are l e s s than one thous­and p a r t i c i p a n t s , and t h e i r a c t i v i t y i s discontinuous. (Rummel, 1965, p. 210)The regime may a l s o be the t a r g e t of a c t i v i t y or i t may become so during the course of the war.

Large-Scale G u e r r i l l a War

Same as above, except t h a t the number of p a r t i c i p a n t s num­bers more than one thousand and the a c t i o n i s continuous.

C i v i l War or Secession

Any armed attempt on thepart of a segment of the p o p u l a t i o n (numbering more than 10,000) to secede from the c e n t r a l government and form an independent or autonomous r e g i o n .

O f f i c e Turnover The e l e c t o r a l defeat of any set of a u t h o r i t i e s . The auth­o r i t i e s are most l i k e l y members of p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s , but they need not be.

Resignat ions This i n d i c a t o r i n c l u d e s cabinet and executive l e v e l resigna­t i o n s . R e s i g n a t i o n i s defined as the voluntary or i n v o l u n ­t a r y v a c a t i o n of an a u t h o r i t y r o l e .

APPENDIX I I

CODING CRITERIA FOR PARTY AND PARTY SYSTEM SUPPORT

I n d i v i d u a l P a r t y L e v e l :

Concentration (Cleavage) L e v e l Supporter C h a r a c t e r i s t i c

2.5 h i g h c o n c e n t r a t i o n - low cleavage

2.0

1.5

1.0 low co n c e n t r a t i o n - hig h cleavage

between 52-67%, of party supporters share one c h a r a c t e r i s t i c . between 36-51% of supporters share one c h a r a c t e r i s t i c between 20-357= of supporters share one c h a r a c t e r i s t i c . between 5-19%, of supporters share one c h a r a c t e r i s t i c .

P a r t y System L e v e l :

Concentration (Cleavage) L e v e l Support Character i s t i c

1 Party System 2.5 h i g h c o n c e n t r a t i o n - low cleavage

2.0

1.5

party draws 67% of support from one c h a r a c t e r i s t i c . party draws 67% of support from two c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . party draws 50-677o of support from two c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s .

1.0 low c o n c e n t r a t i o n - high cleavage party draws 20-49% of support from two c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s .

APPENDIX I I (Cont'd.)

Concentration (Cleavage) L e v e l Support C h a r a c t e r i s t i c

2 Party System 2.5 h i g h c o n c e n t r a t i o n - low cleavage

2.0

1.5

1.0 low co n c e n t r a t i o n - high cleavage

more than 67% of the t o t a l support of both p a r t i e s i s drawn from 1 c h a r a c t e r i s t i c . more than 67%, of t o t a l sup­port i s drawn from two char­a c t e r i s t i c s . between 50-66% of t o t a l sup­port i s drawn from two char­a c t e r i s t i c s . between 20-49%, of t o t a l sup­port i s drawn from two char­a c t e r i s t i c s .

M u l t i - P a r t y System 2.0 moderate co n c e n t r a t i o n - low cleavage

1.5

1.0 low conc e n t r a t i o n - low cleavage

between 50-66% of the t o t a l support of a l l the p a r t i e s i s drawn from two character­i s t i c s . between 33-49% of t o t a l sup­port i s drawn from two char­a c t e r i s t i c s . between 16-327o of t o t a l sup­port i s drawn from two char­a c t e r i s t i c s .

COVERT SUPPORT:.. INDICATORS AND SELECTED AUTHORS

Year 1950 1959 I 960 1961 19641965 1 9 6 6 1 9 6 7 1963 1969

Dimensions and I n d i c a t o r s A u t h o r

G.A. Alm

ond

H. G

luck

man

R.E.

Lan

e G.

Len

ski

A. Ca

mpbe

l1,

et.

a 1

.

K. D

euts

ch

S.M.

Li

pset

H. Mc

Clos

ky,

et. al

.

Agge

r, Go

ldst

ein, an

d Pe

arl

K. D

euts

ch

J.N. Ro

sena

u R.

E. Lane a

nd D

.O.

Sears

Conv

erse

, Cl

ause

& M

ille

r G.

A. Al

mond

and

G.B

. Po

well

J.W.

Eld

er

L.W. Py

e 1.

K. &R

.L.

Feie

rabe

nd

S.M.

Li

pset a

nd S

. Ro

kkan

D.E. N

euba

uer

Duff

and

McC

aman

t H. Kel

man

S i ze X X E f f i cacy X X E d u c a t i o n l e v e l X X X Group Membership X X X Income l e v e l X X X X 1 s s u e s X X L e t t e r Wr i t i ng X L i t e r a c y X X X X X

Newspaper C i r c u l a t i o n X X X Q u a l i t y Media X R o l e F u l f i l m e n t X X

- C o n c e n t r a t i o n L i t e r a c y X X

P a r t i c i p a t i o n r u l e s X

1 n t e n s i t y X X •—

E d u c a t i o n l e v e l X X •— P a r t i s a n s h i p Type X X X P o l i t i ca 1 Concern X X

S t a t u s X

APPENDIX I (b)

Urban i zat i on Poli t i ca

1 D i stance

Mob i1i ty

Declarations & Platforms Deaths %

Communist vote Coali tion behavior Cleavage types Casualties

(Ins.) 1ntens i ty

Number of social

groups represented

Number of parties

Newspaper circulation

Local attachments. Literacy Govt,

jurisdiction

Contacts with govt,

offi ci a 1s

Access Concentration Urban-rural

residence Non-voters Turnout Party membership Industrial

Elections Extractive transfers Elite group membership S i ze Dimensi ons

and Indicators

Author

Year

X E.S. Bogardus t s X E. Edelman ft

X Bendi x & L i p s e t B. Eisman

1959 X Bendi x & L i p s e t B. Eisman

1959

X X X K. Deutsch vo o> o X X X S.M. L i p s e t vo o> o

X Booth & A n d r i an X P. C u t r i g h t

X X X E. A l l a r d t (G)

CT> -F-X X F. R i g g s

CT> -F-X S. Verba and G.A. Almond

CT> -F-

X X R. Rummel R. T a n t e r

ON v-n X X

R. Rummel R. T a n t e r

ON v-n

X X • X X 1 .K. and R.L. F e i erabend

M. Kesselman vo cr* cr\ X X

1 .K. and R.L. F e i erabend

M. Kesselman vo cr* cr\

X X S.P. M c C a l l y

vo cr* cr\

C. Ake M. Dogan S.D. Johnson S.M. L i p s e t and S. Rokkan

D. E. Neubauer G. Pomper G. S a r t o r i

vo o>

X X X X X C. Ake M. Dogan S.D. Johnson S.M. L i p s e t and S. Rokkan

D. E. Neubauer G. Pomper G. S a r t o r i

vo o>

X

C. Ake M. Dogan S.D. Johnson S.M. L i p s e t and S. Rokkan

D. E. Neubauer G. Pomper G. S a r t o r i

vo o> X X

C. Ake M. Dogan S.D. Johnson S.M. L i p s e t and S. Rokkan

D. E. Neubauer G. Pomper G. S a r t o r i

vo o>

C. Ake M. Dogan S.D. Johnson S.M. L i p s e t and S. Rokkan

D. E. Neubauer G. Pomper G. S a r t o r i

vo o>

X

C. Ake M. Dogan S.D. Johnson S.M. L i p s e t and S. Rokkan

D. E. Neubauer G. Pomper G. S a r t o r i

vo o>

X X X X

C. Ake M. Dogan S.D. Johnson S.M. L i p s e t and S. Rokkan

D. E. Neubauer G. Pomper G. S a r t o r i

vo o>

X X X X B o u l t e r & Gordar T. Gun Rep. o f N a t l . A d. Comm.

CA CO X X X X X

B o u l t e r & Gordar T. Gun Rep. o f N a t l . A d. Comm.

CA CO X X X

B o u l t e r & Gordar T. Gun Rep. o f N a t l . A d. Comm.

CA CO

X J.A. S t o c k w i n R. Rose and D. 1 r w i n

vo o> X X X J.A. S t o c k w i n R. Rose and D. 1 r w i n

vo o>