india’s challenge of groundwater governance: bracing up for the coming solar pump juggernaut
TRANSCRIPT
The World Bank Water Week
April 7, 2016
India’s Challenge of Groundwater Governance:Bracing up for the Coming Solar Pump Juggernaut
Tushaar ShahInternational Water Management Institute
At Independence, India inherited the world’s largest canal infrastructure.. But since the 1960’s, it has emerged as the world’s
largest groundwater irrigator
Power subsidies are the key driver. In 2015, 20 million electric tubewells used
170 billion kWh of power to draw 210 BCM of groundwater
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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
India: Number of Electric Pumps: 1970-2015
No. of electric pumps in irrigation use (100)
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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
India: Electricity Use in Groundwater Irrigation (m
kWh)
Tofal Electricity Use in Agriculture (m kWh)
2913.4
6435.76760.5
7545.56864.7
7651.47892.0
8725.5
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India: average KWH/pump/year
Power consumption/pump (kWh/year)
When political leaders introduced farm power
subsidies during the 1970’s to get farmers’ votes, they hardly realised the consequences to
follow 20 years later…
India’s Perverse Energy-
Groundwater Nexus
GW demand management, when successful, has
invariably implicated power supply interventions
• Andhra Pradesh Community-led GWG
experiment
• Changing rice planting calendar in Punjab
• Remotely metered farm power and TOD-based
power pricing for farmers in West Bengal
• Temporary, winter-season 110-day power
connections in Madhya Pradesh
• Power rationing and MAR in Gujarat
Figure 1 a Electricity Network Before Figure 1 b Electricity Network after
Modi’s Gujarat: Demand side management throughFeeder separation and farm-power rationing
Modi’s Gujarat: Community-driven decentralized MAR in
hard-rock aquifers
Meghal basin drainage netwrork Profusion of check dams built by people, with government support
Modi’s Gujarat is the only state in western India where groundwater levels are improving.. And agriculture is booming
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200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Gujarat
Number of electric tubewells
power consumption in agriculture (million kWh)
Average power use/tubewell (kWh/year)
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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
India
No. of electric pumps in irrigation use(100)
Average kWh/pump has been rising in India but falling in Gujarat
Comes along the solar irrigation pump.. To
transform the architecture of India’s
groundwater economy..
• PV cell costs falling faster than predicted: US 1500/kWp in 2012; US $ 800/kWp in 2016; US $ 350-400/kWp by 2022?
• Solar irrigation pump numbers in India growing faster than expected: <1000 during 1985-2012; 45,000 during 2012-2015; 4-5 million during 2016-2022?
• Solar pump size in use increasing faster than thought likely: 0.5-2 kWp until 2012; 5kWp standard today; 8.5 kWp in use in Bihar
• Non-subsidy solar pump market already a reality
Democratization of energy… grid-independence presents a
formidable groundwater governance challenge.
With the rise of solar irrigation pumps, India is at a déjà vu moment.. Energy subsidies casually introduced 40 years ago created unsustainable groundwater economy today.. Solar pumps mindlessly promoted today
will accelerate depletion like never before..
Solar insolation is high where
groundwater depletion is a crisis.
Potential for disruption by solar pump juggernaut
Grid power Solar power
~1200 kWh/kW/year ~1500-1800 kWh/kW/year
Half or more during nights
All day time
Frequent interruptions, voltage fluctuations
uninterrupted; predictably variable voltage
Subsidized marginal cost Zero marginal cost
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Dhundhi Solar COOP (54 kW): solar energy generated and used for
irrigation (kWh)
solar energy generated Solar energy used in irrigation (kWh)
How to brace up for the solar pump juggernaut
Current policy Desired Policy AuxiliaryPolicy
Solar Pump as green energy Solar Power as a
Remunerative Crop (SPaRC)
capital cost subsidy of 90%+
Subsidy tied to micro-irrigation and limited to 2-
3 kWp
Solar pumps owners use solar and grid power for pumping groundwater
Limit capital cost subsidy to US $ 500/kWp, and keep reducing
Solar pumps grid connected, net-metered with power
purchase guarantee at ~ US c 8-9/kWh
An incentive FiT of US c 11-12/kWh to solar farmers who surrender grid connection.
Solar farmer remains net buyer of grid power
Solar coops become net sellers of power to the grid
Solar farmers are dispersed and costly to reach
Clusters of solar farmers form a cooperative connected to the
grid at a single point.
Demarket Grid Power
Ban new grid power connections for tubewells
Increase night power supply
Give farmers right to reclaim surrendered grid
connections up to 2 years
Promote solar federations as IPPs
Subsidize investment in micro-grids.
India’s ambitious solar target: 100 GW by 2022
To be achieved mostly through MW scale greenfield projects in
remote sites.
But SPaRC offers a whole new alternative path to this target.
Solarising 10 million 10 kW grid-connected solar irrigation pumps give 100 GW solar capacity targeted by 2022
150 billion kWh/year of green power generated
Solar farmer earns US $ 1000/year net by selling 40% of solar power to
the grid
DISCOMs save US $ 10 billion/year in power subsidies
Groundwater use in irrigation drops
from 240 BCM to 190-200 BCM/year
CO2 emissions from groundwater pumping drops by 110 mmt/year
Gains from SPaRC
Taking tubewells off the grid power
releases 30% of grid capacity
150 billion kWh/year of green power generated
Solar farmer earns US $ 1000/year net by selling 40% of solar power to
the grid
DISCOMs save US $ 10 billion/year in power subsidies
Groundwater use in irrigation drops
from 240 BCM to 190-200 BCM/year
CO2 emissions from groundwater pumping drops by 110 mmt/year
Gains from SPaRC
Taking tubewells off the grid power
releases 30% of grid capacity
100 GW solar capacity through MW-scale solar projects gives
India only a green energy mix but little else.
IWMI’s Pilot Project onDhundhi Village Solar Power Producers’ Cooperative
Services offered:
1. Absorb transaction costs of pooling surplus power
2. Assist member farmers in maximizing power sales
3. Add solar capacity over time
Thank You…IWMI-Tata Water Policy Program
Five Problems,
One Solution..