indian equities: fiis maintain their faith; diis remain elusive - motilal oswal

Summary

2

FIIs maintain their faith; DIIs remain elusive: FIIs pumped USD4b in 4QFY14, taking the cumulative inflows of FY14 to USD13.7b. FIIs have been consistent net buyers in Indian equities for the entire decade (except during the global meltdown of FY09). However, DIIs pulled out USD2.2b in 4QFY14 alone and continued to be net sellers in Indian equities for the fourth consecutive year, with USD8.9b outflows in FY14.

FII ownership in BSE-200 at all-time high: FIIs currently hold 23.8% in BSE-200, up from 22.4% in March 2013. As a proportion of free float, FII ownership of BSE-200 remains high at 48.1%. DIIs hold 11.2% of BSE-200, marginally down from 11.5% in March 2013. As a proportion of free float, DII ownership of BSE-200 remains low at 22.6%.

Sector-wise FII flows in BSE-200: In the March quarter, FII flows into the BSE-200 were USD1.9b. Sectors recording the highest inflows were Financials (USD1,338m – Private Banks: USD648m; NBFCs: USD416m, State-owned Banks: USD274m), Oil & Gas (USD341m) and Technology (USD319m). Sectors recording the highest outflows were Healthcare (USD624m), Consumer (USD300m) and Utilities (USD121m).

Sector-wise DII flows in BSE-200: During the quarter, DII flows into the BSE-200 were USD439m. Sectors recording the highest inflows were State-owned (PSU) Banks (USD890m), Consumer (USD404m) and Capital Goods (USD342m). Sectors recording the highest outflows were Technology (USD598m), Telecom (USD273m) and Healthcare (USD197m).

Sector-wise ownership: FIIs are significantly over weight in Private Bank, Technology and NBFCs. Private Banks is the most preferred sector, with USD44.8b investment value. Private Banks recorded the highest increase since March 2009 (USD34.3b). DII are over weight on Consumer, Oil & Gas, Capital Goods, PSU Banks and Metals.

Flowmeter: India Holdings & Flows | May 2014

About the product Flowmeter is a handbook on holdings and institutional flows in Indian equities. This quarterly report will cover:

Overall market flows & holdings

Sector & companies institutional flows and holdings

Overall holdings in BSE200 & Sensex

Sector weight comparison

Deven Mistry ([email protected]); + 9122 3982 5440

Overall market: FIIs maintain their faith; DIIs remain elusive

BSE-200: FIIs share in India at high; DIIs at six year’s low

Sector-wise flows: Financials attract FII and DII flows

Company-wise flows: 4 of top 5 FII flows in Financials

Overall holdings: 57% of BSE-200 saw an increase in FIIs stake

Sector-wise holdings: NBFCs and Pvt Banks recorded highest QoQ chg

FIIs sector holdings: Overweight in Pvt Bank, Technology and NBFCs

DIIs sector holdings: Overweight in Consumer, Oil & Gas and Cap Goods

Sensex holdings: 19 of 30 companies saw increase in FII holdings

Sector weights: Private Banks overtakes Technology

Sector trends: Overview, institutional flows and holding

Contents

3

AUTO

BANKS / FINANCIALS

CAPITAL GOODS

CEMENT

CONSUMER

HEALTHCARE

INFRASTRUCTURE

MEDIA

METALS

OIL & GAS

REAL ESTATE

TECHNOLOGY

TELECOM

UTILITIES

Notes: The attached report is built

around the constituents of BSE-200 and Sensex.

Institutional flows analysis excludes ADR/GDR. Average prices for the quarter have been used.

Holdings analysis includes ADR/GDR for companies and sectors.

Based on the current constituents of the indices, adjusted for stock splits and bonus for flow analysis.

Green up arrow represents positive flows.

Red down arrow represents negative flows.


Overall markets: FIIs maintain their faith; DIIs remain elusive

Quarterly FIIs flows v/s markets

Inflow of USD4b from FIIs in 4QFY14 was driven by expectations of a stable, pro-market government.

4

Yearly FII and DII flows FIIs have pumped USD96b in the last five years.

DIIs remained net sellers for the fourth consecutive year.

Quarterly DII flows

DIIs pulled out USD2.2b in 4QFY14 alone and continued to be net sellers in Indian equities for the seventh consecutive quarter.

Indian market holding (BSE listed companies)

FIIs and DIIs increased their stake by 23bp and 17bp, respectively on QoQ basis. Promoter stake was down 61bp.

52.8 52.1 51.5

20.4 21.5 21.7

10.3 9.9 10.1

16.5 16.5 16.7

Mar 13 Dec 13 Mar 14

1,138 1,201

FIIs

DIIs

Public

Promoter

Value USDB 1,180

9.5 9.2 10.9

5.8

13.1

-10.4

23.4 25.0

8.5

25.8

13.7

1.30.3 0.1 3.26.4

17.713.1

5.1

-4.1-0.9

-12.7-8.9

-1.4

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

YTD

FII (USDb) DII (USDb)

-1.3

6.4 7.45.2 4.4

2.3

12.6

10.1

0.1 0.8

-1.0

-0.4

9.1

0.1

6.98.4

10.4

3.2

-0.1

6.64.1

Mar

-09

Jun-

09

Sep-

09

Dec

-09

Mar

-10

Jun-

10

Sep-

10

Dec

-10

Mar

-11

Jun-

11

Sep-

11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

Jun-

12

Sep-

12

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13

Sep-

13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

FII flows in markets (USDb)

2.1

0.4

2.4

0.51.8

0.8

-5.2

-2.2

2.4

0.82.1

0.6

-4.4

0.5

-3.4 -3.5

-6.3

-1.3 -0.7

-4.7

-2.2

Mar

-09

Jun-

09

Sep-

09

Dec

-09

Mar

-10

Jun-

10

Sep-

10

Dec

-10

Mar

-11

Jun-

11

Sep-

11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

Jun-

12

Sep-

12

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13

Sep-

13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

DII flows in markets (USDb)


BSE-200: FIIs share in India at high; DII at six year’s low

5

Trend in FIIs and DIIs holdings FII holding in BSE-200 companies is at an all-time high of 23.8%.

DII holding is at 11.2%.

FIIs share in India at high; DII at six year’s low FII ownership as a proportion of free float of BSE200 remained high

at 48.1%. DII ownership as a proportion to free float at 22.6%

Sector FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14Cumulative (FY10-FY14)

NBFC 1.4 2.0 1.7 3.3 0.8 9.3Banks - Pvt 2.0 2.0 0.0 3.9 1.3 9.2Technology 1.3 -0.1 1.9 2.5 2.2 7.9Util ities 0.1 4.9 0.0 1.7 1.3 7.9Automobiles 1.6 0.8 1.3 1.3 0.5 5.5Consumer 1.4 1.2 2.6 2.2 -1.7 5.7Oil & Gas 0.7 0.7 -0.1 2.1 1.2 4.6Misc -0.1 2.0 0.5 0.4 0.7 3.6Real Estate 3.1 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.2 3.6Health Care 1.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 0.1 3.9Metals 3.0 0.0 -0.9 0.5 0.5 3.2Cement 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.1 2.3Media 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.4Infrastructure 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2Chemicals & Fertil izers 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6Capital Goods 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 1.2Banks - PSU 1.0 1.3 -1.7 0.8 -0.3 1.2Telecom -0.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.9FII Flows in BSE-200 17.0 16.7 6.8 23.2 9.4 73.1FII Flows in Markets 23.4 25.0 8.5 25.8 13.7 96.4BSE200 flows % to total 73 67 80 90 69 76

BSE 200 FII flows (USD B)

Yearly FIIs flows in BSE-200 In the last five years, 76% of FIIs flows have been into BSE-200.

NBFCs, Private Banks and Technology attracted highest inflows.

FIIs withdrew USD1.7b from the Consumer sector, ending four years of inflows into the sector.

NBFCs and Private Banks have consistently recorded positive flows for the last five years.

15.9

18.5

23.8

11.8

12.2

11.2

10.8

11.3

11.8

12.3

12.8

14.0

17.0

20.0

23.0

26.0

Mar

-09

Jun-

09Se

p-09

Dec

-09

Mar

-10

Jun-

10Se

p-10

Dec

-10

Mar

-11

Jun-

11Se

p-11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

Jun-

12Se

p-12

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13Se

p-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

BSE200 FII Holding (%) BSE200 DII Holding (%) - RHS

37.2 39.3

41.2

46.1 48.127.7

26.1 26.2

23.7 22.6

21.0

23.0

25.0

27.0

29.0

37.0

40.0

43.0

46.0

49.0

Mar

-09

Jun-

09Se

p-09

Dec

-09

Mar

-10

Jun-

10Se

p-10

Dec

-10

Mar

-11

Jun-

11Se

p-11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

Jun-

12Se

p-12

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13Se

p-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

FII Proportion of Free Float (%) DII Proportion of Free Float (%) - RHS


Sector-wise flows: Financials attract both FII and DII flows Sector-wise FII flows into BSE-200 In 4QFY14, about 72% of FIIs inflows (USD1.3b) were in Financials.

Healthcare (USD0.6b), Consumer (USD0.3b) and Utilities (USD0.1b) recorded the highest FII outflows in 4QFY14.

However, Utilities witnessed a net inflow of USD1.3b in FY14, primarily driven by the Power Grid FPO.

PSU Banks remained the most preferred sector, with DIIs inflows of USD0.9b in 4QFY14. However, DIIs pulled out heavily from Technology in both 4QFY14 and FY14.

Unlike FIIs, DIIs were buyers in Consumer and Utilities.

In FY14, PSU Banks, Utilities, Private Banks and Capital Goods witnessed inflows from DIIs.

6

Sector-wise DII flows into BSE-200

0.1

-1.7

1.30.2

0.2

0.1

0.5

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.7

0.7

0.6

-0.3

2.2

1.2

0.8

1.3

Health Care

Consumer

Utilities

Real Estate

Chemicals

Cement

Infrastructure

Media

Metals

Automobiles

Misc

Capital Goods

Telecom

Banks - PSU

Technology

Oil & Gas

NBFC

Banks - Pvt

FY14

-0.6

-0.3

-0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.6

Health Care

Consumer

Utilities

Real Estate

Chemicals

Cement

Infrastructure

Media

Metals

Automobiles

Misc

Capital Goods

Telecom

Banks - PSU

Technology

Oil & Gas

NBFC

Banks - Pvt

4QFY14(USD b)

-2.0

-0.4

-0.5

-0.4

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.3

-0.2

-0.2

0.0

0.5

0.2

-0.1

0.8

0.3

-0.3

1.3

Technology

Telecom

Health Care

NBFC

Automobiles

Metals

Media

Misc

Chemicals

Infrastructure

Real Estate

Banks - Pvt

Cement

Oil & Gas

Utilities

Capital Goods

Consumer

Banks - PSU

FY14

-0.6

-0.3

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.9

Technology

Telecom

Health Care

NBFC

Automobiles

Metals

Media

Misc

Chemicals

Infrastructure

Real Estate

Banks - Pvt

Cement

Oil & Gas

Utilities

Capital Goods

Consumer

Banks - PSU

4QFY14(USD b)


Company-wise flows: 4 of top 5 FII flows in Financials

7

531

486

316

310

297

158

148

103

99

94

90

80

76

70

65

61

58

56

56

54

Axis Bank

Infosys

HDFC

SBI

ICICI Bank

Reliance Inds.

Cairn India

L&T

Page Inds

Bharti

HCL Tech.

IndusInd

Maruti

Dr Reddy's

Power Grid

Bharti Infra.

Aurobindo

Divi's Lab.

Apollo Tyres

BPCL

FII Inflows (USD m)

-833

-205

-166

-157

-144

-114

-81

-56

-46

-41

-34

-33

-31

-30

-24

-24

-24

-22

-19

-18

GSK Pharma

HDFC Bank

NTPC

TCS

HUL

Asian Paints

Tata Motors

Jain Irrigation

United Spirits

Tata Steel

Dabur India

Coal India

Yes Bank

O N G C

Canara Bank

IGL

Cipla

REC

SAIL

Godrej Cons.

FII Outflows (USD m)

867

304

177

173

153

136

135

129

112

79

70

62

60

57

54

53

50

43

42

39

SBI

BHEL

ITC

HDFC Bank

HUL

NTPC

Coal India

ONGC

Asian Paints

GAIL

TCS

IOB

REC

Dabur India

Jain Irrigation

Oil India

Engineers India

Hindalco

Cipla

PFC

DII Inflows (USD m)-565

-286

-194

-165

-92

-92

-81

-68

-57

-52

-52

-50

-49

-45

-42

-40

-39

-38

-35

-34

Infosys

ICICI Bank

HDFC

Bharti Airtel

Reliance Inds.

Dr Reddy's

HCL Tech.

Wipro

United Spirits

GSK Pharma

Cairn India

Nestle India

Page Industries

Idea Cellular

Bharat Forge

IDFC

Sun Pharma

BPCL

UPL

Tata Motors

DII Outflows (USD m)

In 4QFY14, Axis Bank, Infosys, HDFC, SBI and ICICI Bank witnessed the highest FII inflows. Top outflows were from GSK Pharma, HDFC Bank, NTPC, TCS and HUL.

DIIs’ top buying list included SBI, BHEL, ITC, HDFC Bank and HUL. DII outflows were the highest in Infosys, ICICI Bank, HDFC and Bharti Airtel.


57.2 54.7 54.7 53.6 51.5 50.6 51.5 51.2 50.6

15.9 18.0 19.1 19.4 22.4 22.8 22.7 23.5 23.8

11.8 12.6 12.1 12.0 11.5 11.5 11.1 11.0 11.2

15.0 14.7 14.2 15.0 14.6 15.1 14.7 14.3 14.5

Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14

Promoter FIIs DIIs PublicValue USDB

494 1,050 1,230 1,021 1,0429868949841,004

Overall holdings: 57% of BSE-200 saw an increase in FIIs stake

8

FII holding (BSE-200) was up 27bp QoQ and 142bp YoY to 23.8% in March 2014.

– FIIs increased stake QoQ in 57% companies in BSE-200 and 63% companies in Sensex.

Promoter holding in BSE-200 decreased 64bp QoQ and 97bp YoY to 50.6% in March 2014

DII holding (BSE-200) was up 20bp QoQ , but down 30bp YoY to 11.2% in March 2014.

BSE-200 holding pattern (%)

QoQ change in stake (number of companies)

BSE200 Sensex BSE200 SensexIncrease in stake 114 19 89 15Decrease in stake 83 11 109 15Unchanged 3 0 2 0Total 200 30 200 30

FIIs DIIs

Sensex holding pattern (%)

51.6 46.9 48.6 48.0 45.9 45.3 46.8 46.3 45.0

19.5 22.6 22.8 23.1 25.9 25.9 25.3 26.4 27.0

12.8 14.4 13.5 13.9 13.1 13.2 12.7 12.7 13.1

16.1 16.1 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.7 15.1 14.6 14.9

Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14

Promoter FIIs DIIs PublicValue USDB 296 563 699 578 601573530575576

FIIs holding in Indian markets at

all-time high


Sector-wise holdings: NBFCs and Private Banks recorded highest QoQ chg FII and DII holdings in BSE-200 FIIs have the highest ownership in Private

Banks (53%), followed by NBFCs (46%) and Media (32%).

DIIs have the highest ownership in Capital Goods (23%) followed by PSU Banks (18%) and Consumer (16%).

Change in FII/DII holdings (QoQ) FIIs stake in NBFCs increased by 107bp,

Private Banks by 100bp and Capital Goods by 54bp. Cement and Healthcare saw QoQ reduction in stake by FIIs.

DIIs increased stake in PSU Banks, Capital Goods and Consumer on a QoQ basis.

FII holdings increased YoY in Media, Metals and Infrastructure.

FII holdings declined YoY in Cement, Consumer and PSU Banks.

BSE-200 saw an increase in FII holdings in most sectors, but decline in DII holdings in most sectors.

9

Change in FII/DII holdings (YoY)

8

18

11

14

6

23

5

16

9

8

0

9

8

7

11

4

10

13

10

11

14

15

15

17

19

19

20

21

22

25

25

26

30

32

46

53

Utilities

Banks-PSU

Oil & Gas

Metals

Telecom

Cap. Goods

Infra

Consumer

Chem.&Fert

Misc

Real Estate

Cement

Healthcare

Technology

Auto

Media

NBFC

Banks-Pvt

FII Holding (%) DII Holding (%)

-1

-25

85

-7

11

-31

20

-45

-51

20

148

-71

-28

-52

-75

106

6

-14

-283

-88

-37

-34

-18

-7

-11

8

9

27

26

31

34

37

45

54

100

107

Cement

Healthcare

Consumer

Real Estate

Oil & Gas

Auto

Utilities

Technology

Chem.&Fert

BSE200

Banks-PSU

Telecom

Metals

Infra

Media

Cap. Goods

Banks-Pvt

NBFC

FII QoQ Change (bp) DII QoQ Change (bp)

55

-45

196

-94

53

-118

12

-48

-58

-30

124

94

-148

4

-127

-280

-360

-259

-256

-140

-127

36

55

97

107

130

126

142

152

175191

203

353

429

547

611

Cement

Consumer

Banks-PSU

Telecom

Banks-Pvt

NBFC

Oil & Gas

Healthcare

Auto

BSE200

Cap. Goods

Utilities

Technology

Real Estate

Metals

Infra

Chem.&Fert

Media

FII YoY Change (bp) DII YoY Change (bp)


SectorFII Holding Mar-14 (%)

YoY Chg (pp)

QoQ Chg (pp)

Chg Over Mar-09

(pp)

FII Value Mar-14 (USD B)

Chg Over Mar-09 (USD B)

Price CAGR Over Mar-

09 (%)

BSE200 Weight (%)

Banks - Pvt 52.6 0.5 1.0 6.2 44.8 34.3 36 13.8 4.3 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Technology 26.5 1.9 0.1 -0.9 39.7 29.5 38 13.4 2.6 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

NBFC 45.6 1.0 1.1 14.0 24.9 18.6 25 7.7 2.4 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Consumer 19.4 -1.4 -0.4 6.1 24.1 18.9 32 13.0 -3.2 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Automobiles 30.3 1.3 -0.1 11.2 23.4 19.8 38 8.5 1.0 |||||||||||||||||||

Oil & Gas 14.3 1.1 -0.2 1.1 19.7 5.0 8 10.3 -2.4 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Health Care 25.1 1.3 -0.9 8.6 16.2 13.0 33 6.5 0.1 |

Metals 14.5 3.5 0.3 8.4 8.0 5.5 11 4.0 -0.8 |||||||||||||||

Util ities 10.3 1.7 -0.1 5.1 7.5 4.9 -2 3.6 -0.6 ||||||||||||

Capital Goods 16.6 1.5 0.5 2.6 7.4 3.1 13 5.3 -2.3 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Cement 24.5 -0.3 -0.6 5.5 6.7 4.9 29 2.6 0.1 ||

Misc 21.4 2.7 0.9 1.8 6.3 4.6 30 2.6 0.0

Telecom 15.3 0.4 0.3 -1.2 6.1 0.0 2 2.3 0.1 ||

Banks - PSU 11.2 -1.3 0.3 -0.9 5.2 2.0 17 3.9 -1.8 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Media 32.0 6.1 0.5 17.3 2.9 2.4 29 0.8 0.3 ||||||

Infrastructure 19.2 4.3 0.4 7.5 2.0 0.9 8 0.7 0.1 ||

Real Estate 22.0 2.0 -0.3 12.8 1.4 0.7 1 0.5 0.1 ||

Chemicals & Ferti 19.7 5.5 0.1 3.6 1.2 0.8 27 0.6 -0.1 ||

BSE200 23.8 1.4 0.3 7.9 248 169 19 100

FIIs vs BSE200 weight UW/OW (pp)

FIIs sector holdings: Overweight in Private Bank, Technology and NBFCs

10

Sector FII holdings by value

Private Banks is the most preferred sector, with USD44.8b investment value.

Private Banks recorded the highest increase since March 2009 (USD34.3b), followed by Technology (USD29.5b).

Incremental investments in Telecom, Real Estate and Chemicals & Fertilizers remained muted during 2009-14.

Utilities is the only sector to give negative returns since March 2009.

FIIs are significantly over weight in Private Bank, Technology and NBFCs.


Sector

DII Holding Mar-14

(%)

YoY Chg (pp)

QoQ Chg (pp)

Chg Over Mar-09

(pp)

DII Value Mar-14 (USD B)

Chg Over Mar-09 (USD B)

Price CAGR Over

Mar-09 (%)

BSE200 Weight (%)

Consumer 15.9 -0.5 0.8 -6.5 19.7 11.0 32 13.0 4.0 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Oil & Gas 11.4 0.1 0.1 2.1 15.7 5.3 8 10.3 3.1 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Banks - Pvt 13.1 0.5 0.1 -2.4 11.1 7.7 36 13.8 -4.2 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Capital Goods 23.3 1.2 1.1 3.9 10.4 4.5 13 5.3 3.6 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Technology 6.7 -1.5 -0.5 0.4 10.1 7.7 38 13.4 -4.8 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Banks - PSU 18.3 2.0 1.5 1.8 8.6 4.2 17 3.9 3.5 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Automobiles 10.7 -0.6 -0.3 -5.7 8.3 5.1 38 8.5 -1.4 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Metals 14.2 -1.3 -0.3 5.4 7.8 4.3 11 4.0 2.7 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Util ities 7.8 0.9 0.2 1.2 5.7 2.3 -2 3.6 1.2 ||||||||||||||||||||||||

NBFC 9.9 -1.2 -0.1 -7.9 5.4 1.8 25 7.7 -3.0 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Health Care 7.7 -0.5 -0.3 -6.0 5.0 2.3 33 6.5 -2.2 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Cement 9.3 0.5 0.0 -8.7 2.5 0.8 29 2.6 -0.4 |||||||

Telecom 6.2 -0.9 -0.7 -2.0 2.5 -0.6 2 2.3 -0.2 ||||

Misc 8.0 -2.2 -0.5 -2.1 2.4 1.4 30 2.6 -0.6 |||||||||||

Chemicals & Fert 9.4 -3.6 -0.5 -10.1 0.6 0.1 27 0.6 -0.1 ||

Infrastructure 4.8 -2.8 -0.5 -2.5 0.5 -0.1 8 0.7 -0.2 ||||

Media 3.9 -2.6 -0.8 -5.4 0.4 0.1 29 0.8 -0.5 ||||||||||

Real Estate 0.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 1 0.5 -0.4 ||||||||

BSE200 11.2 -0.3 0.2 -0.7 116 58 19 100

DIIs vs BSE200 weight UW/OW (pp)

DIIs sector holdings: Overweight in Consumer, Oil & Gas, Cap Goods, PSU Banks and Metals

11

Sector DII holdings by value

Consumer has been the most preferred sector by DIIs during 2009-14, with incremental investment value of USD11b.

DII holding in Consumer is the third highest at 15.9% after Capital Goods (23.3% ) and PSU Banks (18.3%).

Incremental investment in Real Estate, Infrastructure and Media remained muted during 2009-14.

DIIs are over weight in Consumer, Oil & Gas, Capital Goods, PSU Banks and Metals.

Unlike FII s, DIIs are significantly underweight in Technology, Private Banks and NBFCs.


CompanyMar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Mar-

14 (%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)5 Year Price

CAGR (%)Sensex

Weight (%)

Axis Bank 52.0 2.9 4.9 10.1 1.5 0.3 28.6 2.5 1.1 |||||||||||||||||||||| -1.0 ||||||||||||||||||||

B H E L 16.1 1.4 0.5 16.5 4.1 4.5 -8.1 0.9 -0.1 | 0.8 |||||||||||||||

Bajaj Auto 18.7 0.5 0.0 7.0 -0.3 0.1 46.4 1.5 -0.4 |||||||| -0.7 |||||||||||||

Bharti Airtel 16.4 -0.8 0.5 7.8 -0.8 -0.8 0.4 2.0 0.1 || 0.1 |

Cipla 24.4 -0.3 -0.5 11.4 1.2 0.8 11.8 1.0 -0.3 ||||| -0.3 ||||||

Coal India 5.3 -0.1 -0.1 2.9 0.9 0.5 NA 0.9 0.0 0.2 |||

Dr Reddy's Labs 52.3 5.8 1.9 6.3 -4.7 -1.3 39.3 1.7 0.6 |||||||||||| -1.1 ||||||||||||||||||||||

GAIL (India) 18.8 1.9 0.3 22.7 -0.1 1.1 9.0 1.0 -0.1 | 1.2 ||||||||||||||||||||||||

H D F C 75.7 2.0 1.5 11.9 -1.3 -0.9 25.6 7.0 3.4 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| -3.7 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

HDFC Bank 51.1 -0.1 -0.9 9.9 1.3 0.6 31.1 7.3 1.8 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| -3.7 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Hero Motocorp 30.8 0.2 0.2 8.0 -0.4 -0.5 16.3 1.5 -0.1 || -0.8 |||||||||||||||

Hind. Unilever 14.1 -8.0 -0.7 4.1 -3.9 0.8 20.4 2.3 -0.5 ||||||||| -1.2 ||||||||||||||||||||||||

Hindalco Inds. 34.8 2.0 0.0 14.4 -1.1 1.2 22.2 1.0 0.0 -0.1 ||

ICICI Bank 69.0 1.9 1.5 23.2 -0.9 -1.4 30.2 7.4 2.6 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| -0.5 ||||||||||

Infosys 58.2 5.3 1.9 13.7 -3.9 -1.7 19.9 8.2 2.8 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| -2.9 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

ITC 19.5 -0.5 0.0 34.7 1.2 0.3 30.7 10.0 -4.6 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 9.9 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Larsen & Toubro 21.2 1.0 0.4 36.6 0.3 0.0 23.2 5.4 -2.9 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 3.4 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

M & M 41.9 1.5 0.2 15.9 0.3 -0.2 38.6 2.3 0.2 |||| -0.3 ||||||

Maruti Suzuki 22.4 0.0 0.9 13.6 1.0 -0.4 20.5 1.4 0.0 0.3 |||||

NTPC 9.3 0.0 -1.0 12.9 2.5 0.8 -7.8 1.3 -0.3 |||||| 1.4 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||

O N G C 6.7 0.4 -0.1 10.9 0.0 0.3 10.3 3.5 -1.7 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2.6 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Reliance Inds. 22.1 0.8 0.3 11.3 0.2 -0.2 4.1 8.4 -1.8 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| -1.5 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Sesa Sterlite 26.4 -0.9 0.7 7.5 3.2 -0.9 13.3 1.3 0.2 ||| -0.4 ||||||||

St Bk of India 11.8 -1.4 0.6 20.9 4.8 2.9 12.5 3.3 -1.6 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2.8 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Sun Pharma.Inds. 22.5 -0.1 0.0 5.6 2.2 -0.2 38.8 2.4 0.2 |||| -1.1 |||||||||||||||||||||

Tata Motors 48.4 1.9 0.3 9.8 -1.0 -0.2 61.7 3.8 2.4 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| -1.3 |||||||||||||||||||||||||

Tata Power Co. 26.2 -1.6 -3.0 22.3 -1.5 -0.3 2.8 0.8 -0.2 |||| 0.2 ||||

Tata Steel 18.4 2.3 -0.7 25.5 -1.8 0.1 13.8 1.4 -0.7 ||||||||||||| 0.6 ||||||||||||

TCS 16.1 0.0 -0.2 5.4 -0.1 0.1 51.1 6.4 0.3 |||||| -1.8 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Wipro 12.1 3.0 0.0 3.5 0.2 -0.3 29.8 2.1 -0.4 |||||||| -1.1 |||||||||||||||||||||

Sensex 27.0 1.1 0.5 13.1 0.1 0.4 18.2 100

FII Holding DII Holding Weight

FIIs vs Sensex UW/OW (pp)

Weight

DIIs vs Sensex UW/OW (pp)

Sensex holdings: 19 of 30 companies saw increase in FIIs holdings

12 Flowmeter: India Holdings & Flows | May 2014

Sector-wise weights: Private Banks overtakes Technology During the quarter Private Banks (increase of 75 bps) overtakes Technology (decrease of 135 bps) in terms of top weight position in BSE 200.

FIIs are significantly overweight in Private Banks and Technology relative to the respective sector weights in BSE-200. In contrast, DIIs are significantly underweight in these sectors.

Consumer displayed contrasting trends, with 53bp increase in DII weight v/s 32bp decrease in FII weight.

During the quarter, DIIs substantially increased weight in Capital Goods and PSU Banks, and reduced weight in Technology, Telecom, Metals and Healthcare.

13

BSE-200 weight comparison QoQ (%) FIIs weight comparison QoQ (%) DIIs weight comparison QoQ (%)

13.8

13.4

13.0

10.3

8.5

7.7

6.5

5.3

4.0

3.9

3.6

2.6

2.3

0.8

0.7

13.1

14.8

13.0

10.2

8.2

7.5

6.8

4.7

4.3

3.5

3.9

2.3

2.4

0.9

0.7

Banks - Pvt

Technology

Consumer

Oil & Gas

Automobiles

NBFC

Health Care

Capital Goods

Metals

Banks - PSU

Utilities

Cement

Telecom

Media

Infrastructure

Mar-14 Dec-13

75

Chg bps

9

24

18

55

43

23

1

18.1

16.1

10.2

9.7

9.5

8.0

6.6

3.2

3.0

3.0

2.5

2.5

2.1

1.2

0.8

16.8

17.4

9.8

10.1

9.2

7.9

7.1

3.4

3.3

2.6

2.7

2.5

2.0

1.2

0.7

Banks - Pvt

Technology

NBFC

Consumer

Automobiles

Oil & Gas

Health Care

Metals

Utilities

Capital Goods

Telecom

Cement

Banks - PSU

Media

Infrastructure

Mar-14 Dec-13

126

Chg bps

31

10

38

4

39

16

17.6

13.3

9.9

9.3

9.07.7

7.3

5.1

4.6

4.5

4.1

2.2

2.20.4

0.3

17.0

13.0

9.5

8.1

10.5

6.7

7.3

5.4

5.1

4.9

4.2

2.0

2.7

0.5

0.4

Consumer

Oil & Gas

Banks - Pvt

Capital Goods

Technology

Banks - PSU

Automobiles

Utilities

Metals

Health Care

NBFC

Cement

Telecom

Infrastructure

Media

Mar-14 Dec-13

53

Chg bps

119

44

33

92

20


Auto: FII holding at new high; DIIs continue to sell

14

FIIs recorded inflows of USD131m during 4QFY14. The top-3 companies receiving inflows from FIIs were Maruti (USD76m), Apollo Tyres (USD56m) and Bharat Forge (USD33m).

Tata Motors, M&M and Maruti are top holdings by both FIIs and DIIs, accounting 67% of the sector’s institutional holding.

FIIs and DIIs are overweight on Tata Motors but underweight on Bajaj Auto. Apollo Tyres was the top stock, with 5.6pp QoQ change in FII holding.

245

217

257 54

659

650

024

471

464

285

330

128

709

103

232

826

350

233

4857

713

1

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep -

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

FII Flows (USD M)

183

268

2811

318

828

233

461

126

810

4 1636

312

9367

744

323

824

767

216

5

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep -

13

Mar

-14

DII Flows (USD M)

19.1

29.130.3

16.4

11.3 10.79

12

14

17

19

17

21

25

29

33

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

FII Holding (%) DII Holding (%) - RHS

CompanyMar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)Mar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)FII DII

Total Inst.

Total Inst.

BSE2005 Year Price

CAGR (%)

Amara Raja Batt. 15.0 4.9 1.7 12.2 11.6 -3.7 -1.2 -1.4 163 126 289 0.1 0.1 84.4Apollo Tyres 34.5 5.9 5.6 30.5 7.9 1.1 -1.4 -11.7 448 102 550 0.2 0.2 54.4Ashok Leyland 26.0 -4.4 -0.5 2.7 13.3 0.2 1.0 -5.7 265 136 401 0.1 0.1 21.2Bajaj Auto 18.7 0.5 0.0 4.8 7.0 -0.3 0.1 -2.9 1,819 682 2,502 0.7 1.0 46.4Bharat Forge 16.0 6.6 2.4 7.3 14.5 -4.5 -3.0 -0.7 254 230 484 0.1 0.2 33.9Bosch 7.2 0.3 0.0 2.1 11.7 0.0 0.0 -3.7 400 644 1,044 0.3 0.3 28.8Eicher Motors 19.6 6.7 -0.3 19.6 5.3 -6.5 0.2 5.3 511 138 649 0.2 0.2 93.6Exide Inds. 17.3 -0.4 0.0 9.5 17.2 3.6 1.1 -3.9 287 286 573 0.2 0.2 23.9Hero Motocorp 30.8 0.2 0.2 3.8 8.0 -0.4 -0.5 -1.6 2,263 589 2,852 0.8 1.0 16.3M & M 41.9 1.5 0.2 11.2 15.9 0.3 -0.2 -9.6 4,097 1,552 5,649 1.6 1.5 38.6Maruti Suzuki 22.4 0.0 0.9 3.0 13.6 1.0 -0.4 -8.1 2,155 1,311 3,466 1.0 0.9 20.5Motherson Sumi 16.9 1.7 -0.3 10.7 7.4 -2.1 -0.4 1.1 618 271 889 0.2 0.3 53.7MRF 7.0 2.7 1.4 6.0 10.4 -0.4 -0.6 -1.9 104 154 259 0.1 0.2 65.1Tata Motors 48.4 1.9 0.3 28.1 9.8 -1.0 -0.2 -8.4 10,033 2,032 12,065 3.3 2.5 61.7Automobiles 30.3 1.3 -0.1 11.2 10.7 -0.6 -0.3 -5.7 23,418 8,254 31,672 8.7 8.5 38.0

FII Holding DII Holding Value (USD M) Weight (%)

FLOWS WEIGHT FII O/W DII U/W


Banks – Private: Second consecutive quarter of FII inflows

15

In BSE-200, FII ownership is the highest in Private Banks (52.6%), with a value of USD45b in 4QFY14. DII ownership in Private Banks is at 13%.

FIIs maintained their positive interest in Private Banks, which recorded an inflow of USD1,340m in the last two quarters.

IndusInd and Yes Bank were the top-performing stocks over a 5-year period, and both have also shown substantial increase in FII holding.

296

569

373 55

949

863

91,

583

9817

319

940

756

079

8

563

1,21

51,

419

1,81

445

550

869

264

8

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

FII Flows (USD M)

279

4729

212

510

449

2 361

184 39

712

212

546

327

0

281

662

577

663

210

483

180

2

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

DII Flows (USD M)

46.5

52.1 52.6

15.5

12.613.1

10

12

14

16

18

44

47

49

52

54

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14


CompanyMar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)Mar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)FII DII

Total Inst.

Total Inst.

BSE2005 Year Price

CAGR (%)

Axis Bank 52.0 2.9 4.9 20.8 10.1 1.5 0.3 -1.2 5,775 1,118 6,893 1.9 1.6 28.6Federal Bank 43.4 -4.5 -1.3 -0.3 23.2 1.3 1.6 2.4 574 307 881 0.2 0.3 28.2HDFC Bank 51.1 -0.1 -0.9 6.3 9.9 1.3 0.6 -3.9 14,844 2,884 17,728 4.9 4.7 31.1ICICI Bank 69.0 1.9 1.5 6.4 23.2 -0.9 -1.4 0.6 16,066 5,406 21,472 5.9 4.7 30.2IndusInd Bank 55.6 2.7 2.1 18.6 7.5 -1.1 0.2 6.5 2,369 318 2,687 0.7 0.7 73.0ING Vysya Bank 28.7 1.2 -0.1 8.4 14.8 2.3 0.4 -3.2 549 283 832 0.2 0.2 37.1J & K Bank 28.0 3.5 -0.2 -3.0 4.8 -0.1 0.3 2.0 338 58 396 0.1 0.1 37.7Karnataka Bank 21.0 -3.8 1.9 -12.0 7.8 1.1 -0.2 1.0 75 28 103 0.0 0.1 14.3Kotak Mah. Bank 31.8 -0.5 -0.1 3.5 1.9 -0.3 0.1 -1.9 3,088 179 3,268 0.9 1.0 40.6South Ind.Bank 41.7 -2.3 -2.3 5.8 12.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 202 58 260 0.1 0.1 34.1Yes Bank 38.0 -11.0 -1.6 11.5 21.0 7.7 1.7 -5.4 917 506 1,423 0.4 0.4 52.6Banks - Pvt 52.6 0.5 1.0 6.2 13.1 0.5 0.1 -2.4 44,797 11,146 55,943 15.4 13.8 36.2




Banks – PSU: Highest institutional flows during 4QFY14

16

After three consecutive quarters of FII outflows, PSU Banks remained the most active sector in 4QFY14, with FII inflows of USD274m and DII inflows of USD890m. The sector was also one of the best performers during the quarter, with a change of 14% on QoQ basis.

SBI, OBC and Andhra Bank saw an increase in FII holding during the quarter. DIIs increased their stake in IOB and SBI.

DII holding reached a new high of 18.3% during 4QFY14.

665

517

364

468

300

462 1,

253

152

274

783

1,05

328

545

0

5615

023

3 503

274

233 30

274

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

FII Flows (USD M)

431

340

7417

847

084

787 20

083

541

453

946

1,09

1

11 3038

357

158

156

9689

0

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

DII Flows (USD M)

12.1 12.5 11.2

16.5 16.3

18.3

14

16

17

19

20

10

12

13

15

16

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14


CompanyMar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)Mar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)FII DII

Total Inst.

Total Inst.

BSE2005 Year Price

CAGR (%)

Allahabad Bank 8.0 -1.8 -0.8 -2.3 18.0 -3.7 -0.5 3.6 64 144 208 0.1 0.1 18.5Andhra Bank 11.5 -1.8 0.3 -3.1 10.9 -3.7 -0.1 -5.6 70 67 137 0.0 0.0 7.3Bank of Baroda 15.6 -1.1 0.1 2.1 18.6 0.8 -1.0 -3.5 788 937 1,726 0.5 0.5 25.2Bank of India 10.2 -3.4 -0.8 -4.2 15.5 -0.9 0.1 2.7 242 369 610 0.2 0.2 0.8Canara Bank 9.0 -3.2 -1.4 -2.3 13.1 -0.3 0.2 4.5 177 258 435 0.1 0.1 9.8Central Bank 0.9 -0.9 -0.2 -0.9 5.9 -1.7 0.0 -1.0 10 65 75 0.0 0.0 11.6I O B 1.9 -0.6 -0.1 -6.0 15.3 3.3 5.9 0.0 19 156 175 0.0 0.0 2.3IDBI Bank 2.9 -0.5 0.1 -1.0 11.2 -2.6 -0.1 -10.6 49 190 239 0.1 0.1 7.6Oriental Bank 9.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 24.0 -1.2 -0.9 -6.9 107 260 367 0.1 0.1 15.2Punjab Natl.Bank 17.2 -0.8 -0.3 2.3 18.7 -0.3 0.2 -2.4 750 813 1,563 0.4 0.4 12.6St Bk of India 11.8 -1.4 0.6 -0.4 20.9 4.8 2.9 4.6 2,737 4,833 7,570 2.1 2.1 12.5Syndicate Bank 6.6 0.2 -0.1 3.1 13.3 -2.7 -1.0 2.7 64 129 193 0.1 0.1 15.0UCO Bank 4.2 1.1 -1.0 2.7 8.9 -4.1 -3.4 1.2 51 107 158 0.0 0.1 24.9Union Bank (I) 8.5 -2.1 -0.3 -5.6 16.6 -1.4 -0.3 0.7 119 233 351 0.1 0.1 -1.4Banks - PSU 11.2 -1.3 0.3 -0.9 18.3 2.0 1.5 1.8 5,246 8,561 13,807 3.8 3.9 16.9


FLOWS WEIGHT FII U/W DII O/W


NBFCs: Second best sector in terms of FII flows during 4QFY14

17

After PSU Banks, NBFCs was the second best sector in terms of FII flows. NBFCs witnessed inflows of USD416m from FIIs. However, DIIs remained sellers for the second consecutive quarter.

LIC Housing, HDFC and Bajaj Holding remained the favoured stocks and saw an increase in FII holding during the quarter.

DII and FII flows have been in opposite direction for 10 quarters.

6547

030

441

592

438

1,37

811

095

2416

911,

605

188

1,08

6 1,46

157

411

549

360

416

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

FII Flows (USD M)

1712

648

308

130

601 15

7 1062

913

818

1,77

9

7018

094

518

212

713

618

917

7

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

DII Flows (USD M)

31.6

44.6 45.6

17.8

11.09.9

7

11

14

18

21

30

35

40

45

50

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14


CompanyMar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)Mar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)FII DII

Total Inst.

Total Inst.

BSE2005 Year Price

CAGR (%)

Bajaj Fin. 11.7 4.8 0.7 -9.5 7.6 -3.6 -0.2 4.7 170 110 280 0.1 0.1 93.1Bajaj Finserv 11.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 4.4 0.1 0.2 -2.5 224 90 315 0.1 0.2 36.8Bajaj Holdings 16.3 2.5 1.5 1.5 10.1 -1.7 -1.1 -4.0 297 185 482 0.1 0.2 27.8GRUH Finance 17.5 2.1 0.5 8.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 -3.6 149 6 155 0.0 0.1 73.7H D F C 75.7 2.0 1.5 15.9 11.9 -1.3 -0.9 -15.3 16,900 2,665 19,565 5.4 4.5 25.6I D F C 52.6 -0.6 1.2 21.2 29.4 -2.5 -1.6 -21.6 1,578 882 2,460 0.7 0.5 17.7IFCI 5.4 0.9 0.3 -0.6 12.7 0.1 0.2 -23.6 39 91 129 0.0 0.1 6.6Indiabulls Hous. 39.2 39.2 -0.2 39.2 3.4 3.4 0.0 3.4 501 44 545 0.1 0.2 NAL&T Fin.Holdings 4.4 1.8 1.4 4.4 0.8 -0.1 -0.1 0.8 90 16 107 0.0 0.1 NALIC Housing Fin. 37.9 5.3 1.6 16.3 6.9 -5.4 -1.2 -11.9 729 134 863 0.2 0.2 39.3M & M Financial 41.4 3.4 0.6 17.1 1.3 -3.4 -0.9 1.1 960 31 991 0.3 0.2 43.1Muthoot Finance 10.3 1.3 0.9 10.3 1.1 -0.1 0.7 1.1 106 11 117 0.0 0.0 NAPower Fin.Corpn. 11.2 -1.3 0.0 7.2 11.0 2.2 1.2 7.8 462 455 917 0.3 0.2 6.0Reliance Capital 20.6 0.7 -0.5 -0.6 5.4 -0.3 0.0 1.3 283 74 356 0.1 0.1 -0.4Religare Enterp. 10.6 9.0 0.0 6.4 3.7 2.6 0.0 3.6 82 29 110 0.0 0.1 0.2Rural Elec.Corp. 18.7 -2.0 -0.7 15.3 9.9 3.7 1.9 1.6 683 361 1,044 0.3 0.3 18.9Shri.City Union. 25.3 0.1 -0.4 19.5 3.0 -1.3 0.0 1.8 267 32 299 0.1 0.1 27.6Shriram Trans. 48.9 -0.5 -0.8 35.0 6.0 1.0 0.4 3.3 1,371 168 1,540 0.4 0.4 33.0NBFC 45.6 1.0 1.1 14.0 9.9 -1.2 -0.1 -7.9 24,891 5,384 30,275 8.3 7.7 25.5




Capital Goods: DII and FII holdings at new high

18

Capital Goods recorded inflows of USD227m and USD342m from FIIs and DIIs, respectively. The holdings of both were at all-time highs.

BHEL, the only stock to have given negative returns in five years, has also seen reduction in FII holding during the period.

Havells, which has given the highest return of 67% in five years, saw FIIs value increasing by 17x .

6465

118

968

466

101

411

4849

213

628

337

450

8

267

362

306

100

4060

475

227

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

FII Flows (USD M)

9926

517

8 556

349

274

516

514

01,

014

9525

228

3

310

105

216

148

65 6616

134

2

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

DII Flows (USD M)

14.0

15.1

16.6

19.3

22.0

23.3

18

20

21

23

24

11

13

15

16

18

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14


CompanyMar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)Mar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)FII DII

Total Inst.

Total Inst.

BSE2005 Year Price

CAGR (%)

A B B 4.4 0.7 0.3 -8.2 12.2 -0.2 -0.1 -9.2 128 356 484 0.1 0.1 14.7B H E L 16.1 1.4 0.5 -0.9 16.5 4.1 4.5 7.3 1,258 1,284 2,542 0.7 0.6 -8.1Bharat Electron 3.7 0.0 -0.8 -1.6 16.9 1.7 1.6 2.3 55 251 305 0.1 0.1 5.3Crompton Greaves 19.5 4.5 0.8 9.8 23.2 -1.1 -0.6 -5.0 318 376 694 0.2 0.2 17.8Cummins India 18.4 2.9 1.5 7.8 17.2 -2.6 -1.0 -4.9 493 461 953 0.3 0.3 35.1Engineers India 8.5 4.0 2.9 6.8 12.5 4.7 5.6 8.0 104 154 258 0.1 0.1 21.0Havells India 30.7 4.9 -0.2 13.0 0.4 -0.6 -0.1 -2.3 577 7 584 0.2 0.2 66.8Larsen & Toubro 21.2 1.0 0.4 6.3 36.6 0.3 0.0 -1.8 4,038 6,988 11,026 3.0 3.5 23.2Siemens 4.2 0.6 0.6 1.8 8.8 0.8 0.1 -13.3 186 392 579 0.2 0.2 23.5Thermax 16.6 2.3 0.5 10.8 6.8 -2.4 -0.4 -9.7 240 98 337 0.1 0.1 32.8Capital Goods 16.6 1.5 0.5 2.6 23.3 1.2 1.1 3.9 7,396 10,367 17,762 4.9 5.3 12.6




Cement: FII flows muted

19

The Cement sector witnessed a decrease in FII holding during the quarter. Also, the flows have dropped for the third consecutive quarter.

The sector recorded an inflow of USD46m from DIIs during the quarter after an outflow in the December quarter.

Shree Cement and UltraTech were the top performers in the sector in terms of five-year returns.

6381

1347

330

4447

429

324

113

167

174

192

128 20

854

224

2492

20 1

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

FII Flows (USD M)

3249 25

1423

434

7820

6 141

3796

128

233

4222

253

121

129

354

46

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

DII Flows (USD M)

24.9

24.518.0

8.8

9.37

11

14

18

21

19

21

23

25

27

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep -

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14


CompanyMar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)Mar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)FII DII

Total Inst.

Total Inst.

BSE2005 Year Price

CAGR (%)

ACC 19.7 -0.2 -0.3 9.1 13.2 2.6 0.2 -9.2 833 556 1,389 0.4 0.4 19.3Ambuja Cem. 32.2 -0.3 0.1 8.0 9.4 0.8 0.0 -7.7 1,619 471 2,090 0.6 0.5 23.1Grasim Inds 37.3 -0.2 -0.2 3.4 16.1 0.7 0.1 -4.8 1,599 690 2,289 0.6 0.6 12.9Shree Cement 8.6 0.9 0.5 5.3 6.3 0.6 0.4 -3.8 274 200 474 0.1 0.2 51.4The Ramco Cement 18.7 4.9 0.3 16.4 18.2 0.3 0.2 -2.4 155 150 305 0.1 0.1 24.7UltraTech Cem. 22.7 0.1 -0.1 20.3 4.9 0.3 0.3 -4.0 2,209 477 2,686 0.7 0.8 31.8Cement 24.5 -0.3 -0.6 5.5 9.3 0.5 0.0 -8.7 6,690 2,544 9,234 2.5 2.6 29.0


FLOWS WEIGHT FII - DII -


Consumer: FIIs big sellers; DIIs big buyers

20

During 4QFY14, FIIs continued selling Consumer stocks, which saw an outflow of USD300m. For the full year, FIIs have sold to the tune of USD1.7b.

On the other hand, DIIs poured USD404m into the sector, after 18 quarters of selling.

FII holding in the Consumer sector is at 19.4%, down from the peak of 20.8% in March 2013.

139

196

312 60

029

630

0 610

174

146

775

444 62

571

0

377 56

457

667

124

41,

120

2930

0

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

FII Flows (USD M)

3626

24

2713

625

350

416

1 8736

5 238

243

360 12

940

2 278

860

4864

439

404

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

DII Flows (USD M)

13.3

20.819.4

22.3

16.3

15.9

10

14

18

22

26

12

15

18

21

24

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep -

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14


CompanyMar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)Mar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)FII DII

Total Inst.

Total Inst.

BSE2005 Year Price

CAGR (%)

Asian Paints 18.0 -1.5 -1.5 4.7 9.4 1.5 1.5 -5.1 1,525 794 2,319 0.6 0.9 47.4Bata India 20.1 -0.1 1.3 8.9 9.8 -0.4 -1.0 -4.2 238 117 355 0.1 0.1 61.5Berger Paints 11.7 1.4 0.0 5.8 2.7 -0.1 0.0 -2.4 151 35 186 0.1 0.1 45.8Britannia Inds. 20.1 2.2 0.0 12.5 8.4 -2.9 -0.4 -14.1 329 138 467 0.1 0.2 24.5Colgate-Palm. 20.0 -1.6 0.0 9.9 7.0 1.8 0.4 -3.8 604 211 815 0.2 0.3 23.9Dabur India 19.2 -1.0 -0.7 10.7 5.6 1.4 1.2 -8.2 975 286 1,261 0.3 0.4 29.5Emami 16.0 1.5 -0.7 15.5 1.8 -1.7 -0.2 0.8 255 28 284 0.1 0.1 44.9GlaxoSmith C H L 11.7 0.5 0.0 8.9 0.8 0.1 0.2 -25.7 342 24 367 0.1 0.2 43.7Godrej Consumer 28.4 0.2 -0.4 11.0 1.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 1,333 83 1,416 0.4 0.4 45.0Hind. Unilever 14.1 -8.0 -0.7 -0.3 4.1 -3.9 0.8 -11.0 2,979 871 3,850 1.1 1.5 20.4ITC 19.5 -0.5 0.0 5.3 34.7 1.2 0.3 -3.1 8,868 15,756 24,624 6.8 6.4 30.7Jubilant Food. 46.6 5.0 -0.8 46.6 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 527 1 527 0.1 0.1 NAMarico 27.6 -0.4 0.0 10.8 6.0 0.5 0.3 -5.0 603 132 734 0.2 0.2 28.4Mcleod Russel 34.4 -0.5 -1.3 17.2 6.7 3.1 1.0 -4.1 186 36 222 0.1 0.1 36.4Nestle India 13.7 1.8 0.6 5.7 5.3 -1.4 -0.6 -6.6 1,071 412 1,483 0.4 0.6 26.3P & G Hygiene 2.4 -0.1 0.0 2.0 12.2 0.7 0.0 4.5 41 204 245 0.1 0.1 33.6Pidil ite Inds. 15.5 1.9 0.3 6.3 3.6 -2.0 -0.2 -4.9 393 91 485 0.1 0.2 48.5Tata Global 23.2 4.5 1.0 9.7 14.2 -4.3 -1.3 -15.5 349 212 561 0.2 0.2 20.7TTK Prestige 20.9 7.3 -1.2 18.6 2.1 -1.3 0.7 -1.6 119 12 131 0.0 0.0 101.7United Breweries 19.0 0.3 0.0 6.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 -1.2 668 19 687 0.2 0.2 55.8United Spirits 40.7 -6.3 -0.7 10.1 4.0 -2.0 -1.0 -3.5 2,527 247 2,773 0.8 0.8 32.4Consumer 19.4 -1.4 -0.4 6.1 15.9 -0.5 0.8 -6.5 24,083 19,708 43,792 12.0 13.0 31.5




Healthcare: Biggest outflows by FIIs during the quarter

21

During the quarter, Healthcare recorded the biggest FII outflows at USD624m. DIIs also sold during the quarter to tune of USD197m.

Institutional investors are currently underweight on Healthcare relative to BSE-200.

Aurobindo, Dr Reddys and Divis Labs showed the highest increase in FII holding during the quarter.

163

214

202 43

613

412 28

414

327

228

327

504

162 28

3 505 93

154

615

658

624

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

FII Flows (USD M)

133

131

8614

3 9111

1 5529

212

481

188 38

390

7022

345

160

7 409

142

283

197

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

DII Flows (USD M)

16.5

23.825.1

13.8

8.2 7.75

8

11

14

17

15

18

21

24

27

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14


CompanyMar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)Mar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)FII DII

Total Inst.

Total Inst.

BSE2005 Year Price

CAGR (%)

Apollo Hospitals 42.3 0.0 -0.6 10.9 3.8 0.9 0.6 2.6 873 79 951 0.3 0.2 35.0Aurobindo Pharma 23.7 6.9 2.6 10.6 9.9 -5.2 -0.5 0.0 572 237 810 0.2 0.2 68.2Biocon 13.5 5.5 1.3 7.6 6.0 -2.9 -0.5 -5.0 186 83 269 0.1 0.1 24.0Cadila Health. 5.8 0.5 0.1 3.6 8.2 -3.0 0.1 -7.1 198 278 475 0.1 0.2 41.4Cipla 24.4 -0.3 -0.5 10.0 11.4 1.2 0.8 -7.0 1,218 570 1,788 0.5 0.7 11.8Divi's Lab. 18.2 4.2 1.9 2.1 12.1 -1.2 -1.1 -1.9 535 355 891 0.2 0.3 23.5Dr Reddy's Labs 52.3 5.8 1.9 14.4 6.3 -4.7 -1.3 -13.9 3,688 443 4,131 1.1 1.1 39.3Glaxosmit Pharma 2.6 -20.3 -21.2 -12.2 8.9 -2.4 -1.3 -8.5 91 313 404 0.1 0.4 18.8Glenmark Pharma. 33.2 0.8 0.1 5.0 7.8 -0.3 0.3 4.4 825 194 1,019 0.3 0.3 29.1Ipca Labs. 25.3 4.5 -0.1 24.6 11.5 -4.3 -0.5 -24.0 436 198 634 0.2 0.2 66.6Lupin 31.9 3.1 -0.1 20.7 11.3 -3.0 0.0 -16.0 2,164 768 2,932 0.8 0.8 46.7Piramal Enterp. 26.6 1.6 0.1 5.0 4.0 -0.7 -0.3 -6.7 405 60 465 0.1 0.2 22.9Ranbaxy Labs. 13.3 0.6 0.9 8.5 8.3 -1.7 -0.5 -3.2 333 208 540 0.1 0.2 17.1Strides Arcolab 49.3 3.8 -0.1 38.6 2.7 -7.6 -0.2 -35.0 184 10 194 0.1 0.1 36.5Sun Pharma.Inds. 22.5 -0.1 0.0 5.4 5.6 2.2 -0.2 -1.8 4,326 1,067 5,393 1.5 1.6 38.8Torrent Pharma. 12.0 4.9 1.4 5.3 7.6 -2.1 -0.5 2.0 171 109 281 0.1 0.1 50.9Wockhardt 3.9 -5.4 -1.1 1.5 4.1 0.9 0.7 -5.1 31 33 65 0.0 0.0 39.8Health Care 25.1 1.3 -0.9 8.6 7.7 -0.5 -0.3 -6.0 16,236 5,006 21,242 5.8 6.5 32.5


FLOWS WEIGHT FII - DII U/W


Infrastructure: FII holding at peak; DII holding at new low

22

DII holding in the sector is at a five-year low of 4.8%. However, FII holding is at a high of 19.2%. For FY14, FII inflows were USD497m.

FIIs increased their holding in JP Associates by 1.5% to 28.9% and in IRB Infra by 2.5% to 25.7% during 4QFY14.

Adani Ports and IRB Infra have given positive returns on five-year basis; JP Associates and GMR have given negative returns.

103

171 24

084 61

163

13 3211

2 1573

1948

1639 75 94

286

4213

534

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

FII Flows (USD M)

165

1911

618

199

6610

36 1311

34

20

1625

238

2859 72

18

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

DII Flows (USD M)

11.8

15.0

19.2

7.3 7.6

4.8

3

5

7

8

10

10

13

16

19

22

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep -

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14


CompanyMar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)Mar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)FII DII

Total Inst.

Total Inst.

BSE2005 Year Price

CAGR (%)

Adani Ports 17.5 6.6 0.1 11.0 3.2 -1.6 0.2 0.5 1,098 203 1,301 0.4 0.3 23.7GMR Infra. 11.2 -0.4 -0.6 2.0 7.5 0.2 0.0 -1.1 155 103 258 0.1 0.1 -14.3IRB Infra.Devl. 25.7 3.4 2.5 16.5 3.0 -1.1 -0.9 -1.1 143 16 159 0.0 0.0 5.2JP Associates 28.9 6.2 1.5 5.1 8.5 -5.4 -1.4 -3.3 558 165 722 0.2 0.2 -0.9Infrastructure 19.2 4.3 0.4 7.5 4.8 -2.8 -0.5 -2.5 1,953 487 2,440 0.7 0.7 7.9




Media: FII holding increased by 2x in five years

23

FIIs continued to buy, with inflows of USD62m in 4QFY14. However, DIIs were net sellers, with outflows of USD49m.

FII holding in the Media sector has doubled in the last five years to 32%. DII holding has declined from 9.3% to 3.9%.

FIIs increased their stake in all media stocks, whereas DIIs decreased stake.

FII holding is the highest in Zee at 47.9%, followed by Hathway at 31.7%.

1735 34

6537

7813

3 189

5118

352

580

5359 79

178

76 8117

162

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep -

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

FII Flows (USD M)

1533

8133

100

3812

417

026

2087

628

3241

1710

631

5994

49

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

DII Flows (USD M)

14.7

25.9

32.0

9.3

6.5 3.9

3

6

9

12

15

10

17

24

31

38

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14


CompanyMar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)Mar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)FII DII

Total Inst.

Total Inst.

BSE2005 Year Price

CAGR (%)

Dish TV 19.5 -1.8 0.4 14.1 4.9 0.5 -0.7 1.4 175 44 220 0.1 0.1 16.8Hathway Cable 31.7 8.3 2.1 31.7 17.0 -4.2 -2.1 17.0 189 102 291 0.1 0.1 NASun TV Network 16.0 1.9 0.5 7.0 2.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.6 410 51 462 0.1 0.1 19.3TV18 Broadcast 11.0 4.3 0.4 3.9 1.4 -2.2 -0.2 -11.1 77 10 87 0.0 0.1 -16.7Zee Entertainmen 47.9 6.3 0.7 18.4 3.4 -5.3 -0.6 -17.3 2,024 145 2,169 0.6 0.5 38.6Media 32.0 6.1 0.5 17.3 3.9 -2.6 -0.8 -5.4 2,877 352 3,229 0.9 0.8 28.5


FLOWS WEIGHT FII - DII U/W


Metals: DIIs sellers for third consecutive quarter

24

DIIs sold to the tune of USD266m in the last three quarters and have decreased their holding to 14.2%. FII inflows in the sector slowed down to USD66m, after a huge inflows of USD454m in the December quarter.

Sesa Sterlite and JSPL showed an increase in FII stake. DIIs decreased their stake these stocks.

NMDC has given negative returns over the last five years despite FIIs increasing stake by 6.2pp.

1437

6 722 1,

013

914

679

283

134 28

710

072

3 341

265

159

222 53

812

09 12

454

66

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

FII Flows (USD M)

7783

322

169 2,

108

155

8017

460

33,

764

331

213

166 87

196

3,74

836

51

519

4 67

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

DII Flows (USD M)

6.2

11.0

14.5

8.8

15.4

14.2

5

8

11

14

17

5

8

11

14

17

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14


CompanyMar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)Mar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)FII DII

Total Inst.

Total Inst.

BSE2005 Year Price

CAGR (%)

Bhushan Steel 1.8 0.1 0.0 -0.9 4.0 3.1 0.0 2.6 30 66 96 0.0 0.1 42.0Hind.Copper 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 3.5 0.0 7.6 0 78 79 0.0 0.0 -9.1Hind.Zinc 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.6 31.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 181 2,746 2,927 0.8 0.2 23.5Hindalco Inds. 34.8 2.0 0.0 14.3 14.4 -1.1 1.2 -4.2 1,646 683 2,329 0.6 0.6 22.2Jindal Steel 22.3 0.6 0.4 3.7 4.1 -2.7 -0.6 -1.2 976 181 1,157 0.3 0.4 7.8JSW Steel 19.2 -0.5 0.6 -9.9 4.1 -0.9 -0.8 -2.7 776 168 944 0.3 0.4 34.9Natl. Aluminium 3.8 -0.4 -0.3 0.2 10.2 -0.2 0.1 4.7 63 169 232 0.1 0.1 -5.9NMDC 6.2 1.4 0.1 6.2 10.6 -0.8 0.2 9.3 551 952 1,503 0.4 0.4 -2.3S A I L 5.9 1.0 -0.5 2.1 10.9 -0.9 0.3 3.3 280 522 802 0.2 0.2 -5.8Sesa Sterlite 26.4 -0.9 0.7 6.7 7.5 3.2 -0.9 2.3 2,378 672 3,050 0.8 0.8 13.3Tata Steel 18.4 2.3 -0.7 5.2 25.5 -1.8 0.1 0.7 1,137 1,577 2,714 0.7 0.9 13.8Metals 14.5 3.5 0.3 8.4 14.2 -1.3 -0.3 5.4 8,018 7,814 15,832 4.3 4.0 11.1




Oil & Gas: Institutions underweight by 60bp

25

Oil & Gas contributes 10.3% of total institutional investment value of BSE-200. Institutions are underweight on Reliance by 100bp.

FIIs recorded inflows of USD341m and DIIs of USD128m during the March quarter.

Petronet LNG gave five-year returns of 29%, FII holding during the period increased to 19.9% from 9.4%.

3244

725

811

816

725

021

577

952

511

221

198

406

165

1,38

814

771

311

368 53

334

1

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

FII Flows (USD M)

201 24

21,

289

491,

198

8758

620

415

137

114

137

1,60

3

5780 77

72 112

2432

412

8

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

DII Flows (USD M)

13.2

13.2

14.3

9.3

11.3 11.4

8

9

10

11

12

10

12

13

15

16

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep -

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14


CompanyMar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)Mar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)FII DII

Total Inst.

Total Inst.

BSE2005 Year Price

CAGR (%)

B P C L 11.4 1.0 1.2 3.0 16.8 -0.7 -0.9 -4.6 612 903 1,515 0.4 0.4 19.6Cairn India 17.8 3.3 1.5 9.0 9.9 -1.3 -0.5 4.2 1,833 1,014 2,847 0.8 0.7 12.6Essar Oil 67.2 -9.3 -0.4 -9.8 1.5 -0.1 0.0 1.5 838 18 856 0.2 0.0 -6.8GAIL (India) 18.8 1.9 0.3 4.2 22.7 -0.1 1.1 -2.0 1,446 1,754 3,201 0.9 0.6 9.0Guj.St.Petronet 5.1 0.9 0.8 -6.0 33.9 0.9 0.2 10.3 32 214 246 0.1 0.1 12.5H P C L 10.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 22.2 -1.9 -0.5 -6.1 179 377 556 0.2 0.2 2.9I O C L 2.2 0.3 0.1 1.2 4.8 0.2 0.4 -0.5 239 525 764 0.2 0.2 7.6Indraprastha Gas 15.5 -2.7 -4.1 -1.7 23.1 3.3 4.4 -0.1 105 156 261 0.1 0.1 22.3O N G C 6.7 0.4 -0.1 1.2 10.9 0.0 0.3 4.2 2,939 4,793 7,732 2.1 2.2 10.3Oil India 9.3 1.6 -0.3 9.3 8.1 0.2 1.2 8.1 434 379 814 0.2 0.2 NAPetronet LNG 19.9 6.2 1.0 10.5 4.4 -4.6 -0.4 2.4 331 73 404 0.1 0.1 28.7Reliance Inds. 22.1 0.8 0.3 2.6 11.3 0.2 -0.2 2.0 10,721 5,470 16,191 4.4 5.4 4.1Oil & Gas 14.3 1.1 -0.2 1.1 11.4 0.1 0.1 2.1 19,710 15,675 35,385 9.7 10.3 8.1




Real Estate: Lowest holding by DIIs

26

DII holding in Real Estate is at 0.5%, the lowest in BSE-200. The sector has given a marginal return of 0.5% in the last five years.

Except DLF, all stocks in the sector posted negative returns for the last five years.

Unitech and HDIL are stocks in which FIIs increased stake marginally.

Unitech remains the worst performing stock, followed by IBREL over a five-year period.

491,

950

1,30

867 14

027

512

34 6810

527

6121 6

2071

123

223

1314

11

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

FII Flows (USD M)

319

423

117

8 6 191

2515 16 12

4

810

3755

103

63

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

DII Flows (USD M)

9.3

20.022.0

0.7

0.4 0.50.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

8

13

18

23

28

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14


CompanyMar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)Mar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)FII DII

Total Inst.

Total Inst.

BSE2005 Year Price

CAGR (%)

DLF 19.9 3.3 -0.1 13.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1,014 18 1,031 0.3 0.3 1.1H D I L 38.3 5.5 0.1 34.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.4 150 1 151 0.0 0.1 -6.8Indbull.RealEst. 24.9 -6.7 -2.9 -24.7 0.5 -0.3 0.1 -1.4 93 2 95 0.0 0.0 -11.4Unitech 27.8 -5.6 0.3 19.6 1.7 0.5 -0.4 -0.2 165 10 175 0.0 0.1 -16.7Real Estate 22.0 2.0 -0.3 12.8 0.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 1,422 31 1,452 0.4 0.5 0.5




Technology: Largest DII outflows for the quarter

27

During the quarter, DII outflows were the highest in Technology at USD598b. The sector has also posted negative return of 3% on QoQ basis.

FII holding in the sector is at 26.5%, up 2% in the last one year. FIIs recorded inflows of USD319m during the March quarter.

Infosys remained the favored stock of FIIs. FII holding in the stock increased 1.9pp to 58.2%. DIIs, on the other hand, decreased stake by 1.7pp.

208

405

418

441

3439

4 6060

121

140

916

150

01,

129

1471

773

6 1,06

922

682

11,

300

319

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

FII Flows (USD M)

3986 86 18

724

153

418

213

230

833

952

01,

833

593

285

63 78

1,09

765

678

01,

245

598

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep -

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

DII Flows (USD M)

27.3

24.5

26.5

6.3

8.2

6.7

5

7

8

10

11

20

23

25

28

30

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep -

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14


CompanyMar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)Mar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)FII DII

Total Inst.

Total Inst.

BSE2005 Year Price

CAGR (%)

HCL Technologies 28.6 4.3 0.5 11.9 3.7 -2.9 -0.5 -1.6 4,500 581 5,081 1.4 1.3 68.7Hexaware Tech. 23.1 -23.0 -0.6 -19.1 2.5 -5.4 0.2 -2.1 169 19 188 0.1 0.0 63.1Indian Infotech 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4.8 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 NAInfosys 58.2 5.3 1.9 4.2 13.7 -3.9 -1.7 5.9 17,736 4,163 21,898 6.0 5.2 19.9Mindtree 36.0 5.2 -0.8 26.8 10.1 2.6 0.3 8.5 321 90 411 0.1 0.2 44.2MphasiS 26.1 -0.3 -1.2 14.4 4.6 1.1 0.6 -3.2 358 63 421 0.1 0.1 15.2Oracle Fin.Serv. 12.2 7.4 0.1 11.8 1.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 514 67 582 0.2 0.3 33.0TCS 16.1 0.0 -0.2 6.1 5.4 -0.1 0.1 -2.5 10,869 3,616 14,485 4.0 4.1 51.1Tech Mahindra 39.1 11.8 -1.3 37.7 9.7 -6.3 0.6 6.1 2,651 658 3,309 0.9 0.9 46.6Vakrangee 1.7 1.7 0.2 -15.1 5.8 0.1 0.0 5.8 14 47 61 0.0 0.1 140.1Wipro 12.1 3.0 0.0 4.5 3.5 0.2 -0.3 1.5 2,614 756 3,370 0.9 1.3 29.8Technology 26.5 1.9 0.1 -0.9 6.7 -1.5 -0.5 0.4 39,748 10,060 49,807 13.7 13.4 37.9




Telecom: Muted performance since 2009

28

FIIs recorded inflows of USD236m in the March quarter, the sixth consecutive quarter of inflows. DIIs remained sellers for the second consecutive quarter (outflow of USD273m).

In the last five years, Idea has posted positive returns of 22%. FII holding in Idea has gone up from 7% in March 2009 to 19.5% in Mardh 2014.

All stocks in the sector have shown an increase in FII holding and a decrease in DII holding on a QoQ basis.

FII holding in the sector is at 15.3%, marginally higher on YoY basis. DII holding is down by 90bp to 6.2%.

383 11

634

939

915

335

335

728

2314

055

208

68 41 2576

110

586 37

193

236

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

FII Flows (USD M)

240

171

135

8014

190

4613

136

8212

620

779

8716

76 574

106

226

273

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

DII Flows (USD M)

16.6

15.0 15.3

8.1

7.1 6.26

7

8

9

10

12

14

15

17

18

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14


CompanyMar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)Mar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)FII DII

Total Inst.

Total Inst.

BSE2005 Year Price

CAGR (%)

Bharti Airtel 16.4 -0.8 0.5 -4.3 7.8 -0.8 -0.8 0.4 3,382 1,605 4,987 1.4 1.2 0.4Bharti Infra. 10.8 1.5 1.1 10.8 2.1 0.0 -0.3 2.1 675 133 808 0.2 0.3 NAIdea Cellular 19.5 3.2 0.5 12.6 2.4 -3.3 -0.6 -5.4 1,441 178 1,619 0.4 0.4 22.4Rel. Comm. 12.2 3.9 0.9 2.6 8.9 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 524 384 908 0.2 0.3 -5.9Tata Comm 7.0 -1.7 0.9 -3.2 12.1 0.3 -1.2 0.9 99 171 270 0.1 0.1 -9.9Telecom 15.3 0.4 0.3 -1.2 6.2 -0.9 -0.7 -2.0 6,121 2,472 8,593 2.4 2.3 2.4




Utilities: FIIs sell off; DIIs buy during the quarter

29

FIIs recorded an outflow of USD121m due to selling in NTPC (USD166m) and Coal India (USD33m).

The sector has been the worst performer over a five-year period, posting a negative return of 2.2%.

DIIs continued investing (inflow of USD242m during the quarter). DII holding has gone up from 6.8% in March 2013 to 7.8% in March 2014.

217

5531

413

4 1245 30

54,

124

399

209

9728

614

6 70 7041

5 1,14

623

529

5 848

121

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

FII Flows (USD M)

222 25

9 641

254

1,46

333 26

764

469

9625 50

232 34 45

3087

828 58

625

242

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

DII Flows (USD M)

5.2

8.6

10.3

6.6

6.8

7.8

5

7

8

10

11

4

6

8

10

12

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14


CompanyMar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)Mar-14

(%)YoY Chg

(pp)QoQ Chg

(pp)Chg Over

Mar-09 (pp)FII DII

Total Inst.

Total Inst.

BSE2005 Year Price

CAGR (%)

Adani Power 6.8 -1.9 0.3 6.8 0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.6 155 13 168 0.0 0.1 NACESC 23.0 4.9 -0.6 3.6 16.2 -1.4 0.1 -1.3 232 164 396 0.1 0.1 19.0Coal India 5.3 -0.1 -0.1 5.3 2.9 0.9 0.5 2.9 1,572 862 2,434 0.7 0.6 NAJP Power Ven. 7.0 -1.6 -0.1 6.4 7.4 -0.5 -0.6 5.5 47 50 97 0.0 0.0 -13.5JSW Energy 4.2 1.3 0.3 4.2 6.4 0.4 0.0 6.4 65 101 166 0.0 0.1 NANHPC Ltd 1.7 -0.5 -0.2 1.7 3.8 0.6 0.3 3.8 57 130 187 0.1 0.1 NANTPC 9.3 0.0 -1.0 5.7 12.9 2.5 0.8 9.5 1,494 2,071 3,565 1.0 0.8 -7.8Power Grid Corpn 26.2 12.1 0.8 23.6 8.5 0.7 -0.1 4.7 2,327 753 3,080 0.8 0.8 1.9Reliance Infra. 19.5 4.0 0.9 3.1 19.2 -1.0 -0.6 -8.3 362 356 717 0.2 0.2 -3.3Reliance Power 6.5 0.2 0.0 2.6 5.3 0.1 0.0 3.7 206 169 375 0.1 0.2 -7.3Tata Power Co. 26.2 -1.6 -3.0 7.5 22.3 -1.5 -0.3 -7.1 972 827 1,798 0.5 0.5 2.8Torrent Power 1.7 -0.4 0.1 1.5 22.8 -1.1 -1.1 -1.4 12 163 175 0.0 0.1 4.8Util ities 10.3 1.7 -0.1 5.1 7.8 0.9 0.2 1.2 7,501 5,658 13,159 3.6 3.6 -2.2




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Motilal Oswal India Strategy Gallery


indian equities: fiis maintain their faith; diis remain elusive - motilal oswal

Economy & Finance

dii flows fiis

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dii flows companywise

quarterly dii flows

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