india opportunity the way ahead - ieof opportunity presentation/credentials... · india opportunity...
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Advised by
India Opportunity – The way ahead Wealth Creation from Indian Equities
ASK Investment Managers
April 2016
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• Introduction 3
• Investment Philosophy, Process and Themes 6
• Portfolio Construction 12
• Risk Management 13
• Investment Team 14
• Investment Offerings 17
• Performance Snapshot 20
• India Opportunity 22
Contents
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Advised by
ASK Wealth Advisors
Since 2007
ASK Property Investment
Advisors Since 2009
Financial Planning &
Wealth Advisory
Introduction: ASK Group
Real Estate Advisory
ASK Investment Managers Since 1994
Discretionary
money management in Indian equities
ASK GROUP
ASK Pravi Since 2011
Private Equity Advisory
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Introduction : ASK Investment Managers
• Leading private money management firm in India
• Singular focus on managing money in Indian equities – ‘long only’ style
• Long term investors
• ‘Bottom-up’ fundamentals driven, value-based stock picking
• Disciplined research and investment process
• Experienced team of 3 portfolio managers and 5 investment professionals headed by a CIO
• Purely discretionary money management
• Clients include family offices, pension funds, private clients across the globe
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1) Capital Preservation
2) Capital Appreciation over a period of time
Key Investment Objectives
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• Greater certainty of earnings Vsmere quantum of earnings growth
• Superior and consistent quality of earnings Vs mere quantum of earnings growth
• High quality at a reasonable price Vs inferior quality at arithmetically “cheap” price.
Overarching Investment Philosophy and Principles
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• Price the value rather than valuing the price
• Buy “growth” businesses at “value” prices
• Disciplined investing into outstanding businesses
• Seek compounding opportunities
Investment Approach
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Value Creating Traits that we seek in our investments…
• Material Size of Opportunity
• Superior Management Quality
• Strong Earnings Growth – A Compounding Machine
• Superior Quality of Business
• Favorable Value
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Key Investment Attributes
Size of the Opportunity
• Size of pond Vs. size of fish
• Dominance
• Resilience
• Liquidity
Quality of Business
• High quality of business (Superior RoCE)
• Strong moat. Impregnability.
• Sustainability
• Key pivot of strong wealth creation
Earnings Growth
• Quantum
• Consistency
• Durability
• Predating (Early Vs Later)
• Compounding power
Value
• Favorable Price-Value Gap
• Margin of Safety
Four key investment attributes
In addition to the above, good management quality isa given constant
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Investment Themes and Concepts
Dominant Theme
Strategic Value Size of the
Opportunity Quality of Business
Size of the Opportunity
Quality of Business
Earnings Growth Value Growth Strategy
Life Strategy
Indian Entrepreneur
Strategy
Earnings Growth Value Size of the
Opportunity Quality of Business
Earnings Growth Value Size of the
Opportunity Quality of Business
Other Key Themes
Earnings Growth
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India Select*
* > Five best ideas from each of the four concepts, making total of 20 stocks in portfolio
> Portfolio to represent an eclectic mix of size, growth, quality and value; to achieve optimal balance
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• Disciplined adherence to investment philosophy / process
• Strong in-house proprietary research
• Team bandwidth and experience
• Strong relationships and industry interfaces
• Comprehensive understanding of Indian businesses and industries
• Comprehension of long term secular nature of India opportunity
Investment Edges
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Portfolio Construction
• Investment universe of nearly 200 companies
• Detailed evaluation of the character of business and valuation of each firm
• Optimal aggregation of about 20 stocks, to construct a stable and consistent portfolio, to generate superior returns over time
• Adequate sector diversification
• Model portfolios for all strategies
• “Portfolio Psychographics” - proprietary portfolio review tool
• Strict buy discipline: Focus on margin of safety, pre-defined levels for each strategy/concept
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Risk Management
• Integrated risk management and review mechanism throughout the investment process
• Disciplined Buy and Sell mechanism
• Discipline of buying businesses with reasonable margin of safety
• High discount factor (of 15%) for cash flows in our financial models builds conservatism in value estimation
• 6-8 interactions per year with the management team of every portfolio company
• Individual stock cap at 10%
• Risk Manager is responsible for monitoring and supervising the risk of the portfolio and implementing the risk management framework
• Regular and ongoing monitoring and reporting
• Independence of Risk Management Function – reports to Group CFO & Head Compliance
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Investment Team
The Investment Team is mentored by Bharat Shah, Group Director
Prateek Agrawal Business Head & CIO
Gaurav Misra Senior Portfolio Manager
Sumit Jain Portfolio Manager
Research Portfolio Managers
5 Research Analysts
Sudhir Kedia Associate Portfolio Manager
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Bharat Shah – Executive Director – ASK Group • Internationally renowned with over two decades of capital markets experience
• Prior to joining ASK, was CIO at Birla MF, one of India’s largest Mutual Fund houses managing nearly USD 1.65 bn
• Built ASK Investment Managers into one of India’s largest providers of discretionary PMS services, managing close to USD 900 mn.
• Significant domestic and international recognition for investment performance
Prateek Agrawal – Business Head & CIO – ASK Investment Managers • Has 21 years of experience in capital markets with SBI Capital Markets as Head of Research (10yrs) , and Head of
Equity with ABN Amro and Bharti Axa AMCs (3.5yrs each)
• In SBI Capital Markets besides heading research he was part of team that handled VSNL privatization for the government and handled Hindustan Zinc for Vedanta group. On the advisory side he was actively involved in the power sector and in the oil and gas space.
• At ABN AMRO MF, he was head of equity and managed nearly INR 1200 cr of equity domestically and advised offshore assets worth USD700 mn and delivered stellar performance. He then helped set up the equity business at Bharti Axa IM in the post Lehman period.
• He joined ASK Investment Managers as CIO in April 2011
Biography
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Gaurav Misra – Senior Portfolio Manager • Over 20 years of experience in Investment Research and Portfolio Management
• Manages Growth and Life strategies
• Includes 10 years of experience in Private Equity and sell side research. Has been with ASKIM for over 10 years and worked with IL&FS group prior to that
• Is an MBA from IIM Lucknow and BA Economics (Hons) from St. Stephen’s College, Delhi
Sumit Jain – Portfolio Manager • 10 years of experience with ASK Investment Managers
• Manages Indian Entrepreneur Portfolio strategy
• Also engaged in research of business within ASKIM universe, identifying new investment opportunities and tracking their performance at regular intervals
Sudhir Kedia – Associate Portfolio Manager • Started career with ASK and has over 10 years of experience in Investment Research and Portfolio Management
• Research exposure in diverse sectors like FMCG, Auto & Auto Ancillary, Cement, Media, Infrastructure, Real Estate, etc.
• Strong academic background and a qualified CA (ICAI), CMA (ICWAI) and PGPEB (MBA) and B.Com(H) from Calcutta University
Biography
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Investment Options - Offshore
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India Emerging Opportunities Fund (IEOF)
• Launched in 2003
• Regulated by FSC, Mauritius and SEBI, India
• Registered fund under FPI Category-II of Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) FPI Regulations 2014
• Investment Manager - Enterprise Investment Managers Pvt. Ltd., Mauritius
• Investment Advisor- ASK Investment Managers Pvt. Ltd.
• Fund Administrator- Apex Fund Services Ltd.
• Auditors - Ernst & Young
• Bankers- Deutsche Bank, Mauritius
• Custodians - Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. (India)
• Tax efficient structure for investing in Indian markets
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India Emerging Opportunities Fund (IEOF)
NAV FUNDS
Growth
SEGREGATED ACCOUNTS
# Only select classes are shown here
IEOF - Investment Offerings
Indian Entrepreneur Fund
SHARE CLASSES#
India Select
Strategic Life Fund
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Performance Snapshot (INR)
Note: Performance figures are net of all fees and expenses.
(in % INR) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Apr YTD)
Absolute
Returns Since
2010
CAGR
Since 2010
CAGR Since Inception
(29-Jan-2001)
Growth 15 -16 24 11 61 11 -1 137 15 21
Nifty 18 -25 28 7 31 -4 -1 51 7 12
(in % INR) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Apr YTD)
Absolute
Returns Since
2010
CAGR
Since 2010
CAGR Since Inception
(1-Sept-2008)
Life 26 -7 24 15 53 5 -4 159 16 19
BSE 200 16 -27 31 4 35 -1 -2 52 7 9
(in % INR) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Apr YTD)
Absolute
Returns Since
2010
CAGR
Since 2010
CAGR Since Inception
(25-Jan-2010)
IEP 29 -13 30 22 70 8 1 226 21 21
BSE 500 19 -27 31 3 37 -1 -2 56 7 7
(in % INR) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Apr YTD)
Absolute
Returns Since
2010
CAGR
Since 2010
CAGR Since Inception
(Dec-2009)
Strategic 16 -22 32 16 73 12 -2 159 16 16
BSE 200 16 -27 31 4 35 -1 -2 52 7 7
(in % INR) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Apr YTD)
Absolute
Returns Since
2010
CAGR
Since 2010
CAGR Since Inception
(4-Jan-2010)
India Select 25 -17 27 20 70 14 0 205 19 19
BSE 100 15 -26 30 6 32 -3 -2 48 6 6
GROWTH STRATEGY
LIFE STRATEGY
INDIAN ENTREPRENEUR STRATEGY
STRATEGIC
INDIA SELECT STRATEGY
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Performance Snapshot (USD)
Note: Performance figures are net of all fees and expenses.
(in % USD) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Apr YTD)
Absolute
Returns Since
2010
CAGR
Since 2010
CAGR Since Inception
(29-Jan-2001)
Growth 19 -29 20 -2 57 6 -1 66 8 18
Nifty 23 -37 24 -6 28 -8 -1 6 1 10
(in % USD) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Apr YTD)
Absolute
Returns Since
2010
CAGR
Since 2010
CAGR Since Inception
(1-Sept-2008)
Life 31 -22 21 2 50 0 -4 82 10 13
BSE 200 21 -39 27 -8 32 -6 -2 7 1 3
(in % USD) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Apr YTD)
Absolute
Returns Since
2010
CAGR
Since 2010
CAGR Since Inception
(25-Jan-2010)
IEP 33 -27 26 8 66 3 1 126 14 14
BSE 500 23 -39 28 -9 34 -5 -2 8 1 1
(in % USD) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Apr YTD)
Absolute
Returns Since
2010
CAGR
Since 2010
CAGR Since Inception
(Dec-2009)
Strategic 21 -35 28 2 69 7 -2 82 10 10
BSE 200 21 -39 27 -8 32 -6 -2 7 1 1
(in % USD) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Apr YTD)
Absolute
Returns Since
2010
CAGR
Since 2010
CAGR Since Inception
(4-Jan-2010)
India Select 30 -30 24 6 66 9 -1 113 13 13
BSE 100 19 -38 26 -6 29 -8 -2 3 1 1
GROWTH STRATEGY
LIFE STRATEGY
INDIAN ENTREPRENEUR STRATEGY
STRATEGIC
INDIA SELECT STRATEGY
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INDIA OPPORTUNITY
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Indian Economy – Size and Diversity • In current dollars terms, the GDP stands at US$ 2tn.
• In purchasing power parity terms, India is the third largest economy at US$ 4.5tn
• Holy trinity of key bulwarks: Consumption, Savings and Investments
• Consumption accounting for 57% of GDP, Savings at 31% and Investments also at 29%
• GDP is well-balanced across Services (56% of GDP), Manufacturing and Industry (29%)
and Agriculture (15%)
• Largely domestic economy (94% of GDP), making it more resilient to external shocks
• Rising middle class
• Robust banking sector and well-developed capital markets
• Strong capital efficiency of corporate sector
• Favorable demographics
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Global Developments
• Global situation challenging, may remain for some time
• Europe, China, EMs – Brazil, Russia & South Africa,
• Oil-based Gulf and commodity-based economies – Australia/Canada
• Recent volatility could sustain from
• US Fed rate hike / expectation
• Highly Leveraged EMs & their corporate sector
• India – not only doing well, but also improving
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India Update – Macros have been improving
• Concerted policy actions and monetary management have led to
• Early stages of pick up in activity
• Reduction of fiscal and current account deficits to comfortable levels
• India’s trade deficit at a decadal low
• Inflation controlled below RBI‘s upper limit
• Has helped 150 bps cut in interest rates; more expected
• INR might be volatile on short term global cues; expect medium term stability
• Pick up in FDI – 45% y-o-y growth
• Forex reserves at $360 billion – the highest ever
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India Update – Macros have been improving Early stages of pick up in activity
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India Update – Policy Actions
• Policy actions and Monetary management have led to
• Market determined pricing of retail fuels,
• To lead to more efficient utilization/consumption of fuels
• Auction of Natural resources - coal, minerals and spectrum
• Increase transparency and efficiency in capital allocation
• Opening of 200m bank accounts for the unbanked (financial inclusion)– Jandhan Yojana
• Along with Direct Benefit Transfer(DBT) for cooking gas, fertilizer and food subsidy
• Reduces leakages and government subsidy bill
• Strong focus on Manufacturing - Make in India
• Solid progress on Ease of Doing Business
• Defence opened up for private sector
• FDI liberalized across sectors
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India Update – Policy Actions
• Regulator for the real estate sector
• Flexibility in Import of crude oil for Public Sector Units
• Transparency in domestic gold consumption
• Large scale roll out of crop insurance
• Health and Life insurance cover for the needy
• “Housing for All” by 2022 and sanitation by 2019
• “Electricity for All” including un-electrified regions by 2018
• Strong ramp up in road and renewed focus on irrigation
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India – Outlook
• In spite of being bullish at the beginning, markets recorded negative returns for 2015
• Our portfolios still registered healthy positive gains
• Bitten by the challenges of 2015, as a reflex action, investors have turned cautious for 2016
• However, fundamentals are actually getting better
• Hence in our view, markets may actually do well in 2016
• We also remain positive on a longer-term period as well
• Our investment model continues to identify and invest into outstanding businesses and
investments
• which continue to do well over long run
• without much reference to underlying economy or markets
• our good micro stock-picking coinciding with improving macro economic fundamentals
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India – Outlook
Parameters Trends and Outlook
Inflation On a declining slope. To remain within RBI target of 5% (by FY17)
Oil Current drop helpful; Outlook steady
Interest Rate 150 bps rate cut; more expected
Earnings Growth outlook is bottoming out; FY17 expected to be stronger than FY16
Valuation Around Long-Term average
Capex Cycle Revival may take time; Stuck capacities being revived first and fresh capex
thereafter
Sentiments Are good
Rupee (Hopefully) should be range bound
Global Weak and Uncertain
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Road Ahead
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• GDP growth rate to expand from 4.5% in FY 14 to around 8% by FY 19
• The long-term GDP to Corporate Profit multiple has been 2.5 to 4 times
• This, therefore, should translate into 5-year CAGR earnings growth of 12 – 30%
• Let us assume a more modest range of 15 – 20%
The Road Ahead
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• Average Corporate Return on Capital Employed for FY 05 stood at 24% and has now fallen to 17%
• It is expected to climb back to 23% – 24% by FY 19
• Rising capital efficiency typically implies, and results into, expanding valuations
• Valuations are at 14.5 for FY 17E (below 10-year average)
The Road Ahead
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• Twin effects of rising corporate profits and improved valuations will imply healthy investment
returns over a long period of time
• Even if we don’t assume rising valuations, investment returns should at least match CAGR of
profits of 15 – 20%
• In sum, economy and markets are moving from a vicious cycle of past five years to a virtuous
cycle
The Road Ahead
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• Over last 25 years, Indian markets have never experienced a real bull market
• Previous cycles of 1987 – 89, 1991 – 92 and 2000 – 01 have all been shallow, narrow, of a short
duration or inadequately supported by fundamentals
• Even the rise of 2004 – 07, a relatively superior cycle, lost fundamental legs from 2006 onwards
• The decade ahead will witness the first, real, secular, compounding, transformational rise of
Indian equity markets
• Misallocation or under-allocation to equities, now, will result in serious real cost extracted from
the wealth
The Road Ahead
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Correlation of Indian markets with GDP Correlation of GDP growth vis-à-vis Corporate Earnings growth, Market Cap growth and rerating of Indian markets
Please refer to the next slide for notes
Year Real GDP
Growth (%) Index = 100
Nominal GDP Growth (%)
Index = 100 PAT Growth
(%) Index = 100
M.Cap Growth (%)
Index = 100 M.Cap /
GDP
Mar-04 8.1 108 12.2 112 44.3 144 99.3 199 46%
Mar-05 7.0 116 17.1 131 37.6 199 47.7 295 58%
Mar-06 9.5 127 14.1 150 21.3 241 68.5 496 86%
Mar-07 9.6 139 16.6 175 44.1 347 23.0 610 91%
Mar-08 9.3 152 15.9 203 26.9 440 36.0 830 107%
Mar-09 6.7 162 15.7 235 -18.5 359 -35.6 534 59%
Mar-10 8.6 176 15.2 270 36.9 491 97.7 1056 102%
Mar-11 8.9 191 18.7 321 17.3 576 9.7 1158 94%
Mar-12 6.7 204 15.8 371 -5.8 543 -16.7 965 68%
Mar-13 4.5 213 11.9 415 -1.6 534 5.5 1018 64%
Mar-14 4.7 223 11.5 463 7.3 573 17.3 1194 71%
Mar-15 7.2 239 10.8 513 2.5 587 36.4 1629 78%
Mar-16 7.6 257 11.0 569 2.7 603 -6.2 1528 69%
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Correlation between GDP growth and Corporate earnings
• Over last 12 years, real GDP more than doubled while Corporate net profits have risen more than six times
• Real GDP growth and Corporate earnings have shown a close correlation of over 2 times
Attractive valuation of Indian markets
• Market cap to GDP ratio of only 69% (March 2016) shows undervaluation
Correlation between GDP growth and Market cap growth
• Over last 10 years, the nominal GDP has increased five fold while market cap has risen more than fifteen fold
• Nominal GDP growth rate and Market cap growth has shown a strong correlation of 3 times
Correlation of Indian markets with GDP
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Returns from Global Markets (% CAGR) (as on 31 Mar ’16)
Markets 20 years 10 years 5 years 1 year
India 11 8 5 (9)
China 9 9 1 (20)
USA 6 5 7 (1)
UK 3 0 1 (9)
Japan (1) (0) 12 (13)
Australia 4 0 1 (12)
Brazil 12 3 (5) 0
Russia N.A. 4 1 15
MSCI EM Index 3 1 (6) (14)
Source: Bloomberg Note: Returns are in local currency of respective countries
Long-Term Returns of India vs. Global Markets
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RISK FACTORS: Equities as an asset class carry a higher risk in comparison to debt. While risk cannot be totally eliminated, it can be mitigated through a well-designed investment strategy. The ASK Investment Managers Portfolios seek to mitigate risk and deliver superior returns through research-based investing. However, this objective may not be fully achieved due to various reasons such as unfavorable market movements, misjudgment by portfolio manager, adverse political or economic developments etc.
DISCLAIMER: Any information contained in this material shall not be deemed to constitute an advice, an offer to sell/purchase or as an invitation or solicitation to do for security of any entity and further ASK Investment Managers Private Limited (ASKIM) and its employees/directors shall not be liable for any loss, damage, liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this information. Recipients of this information should exercise due care and caution and read the offer document (if necessary obtaining the advice of finance/other professionals) prior to taking any decision on the basis of this information.
ASK Investment Managers Private Limited has not independently verified all the information and opinions given in this material. Accordingly, no representative or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this material.
Disclaimer
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Thank You