Barter Master Round 2 Submission- Team Whiplash, IIFT Delhi

Problem BackgroundWith per capita availability of 1,123 cubic meters1 and 1,500 cubic meters in India and China2

respectively, against a global average of 6,000 cubic meters1, conflict regarding the Brahmaputra has been brimming since early 2000s.

Root CauseConspicuousness of the Chinese Government about its developmental plans:

Zam Hydropower Station : After years of inconclusive indications, China operationalized the 2.5 billion kilowatt-hour project in Tibet in October 20153

Northern rerouting – China’s alleged plans on rerouting water into water-scarce Southern China has raised concerns4

Major stakeholders in the conflict – India, China, Bangladesh Southern China housing ~40% of China’s population has only ~20% of China’s water1 64% of the Brahmaputra Basin (housing 625 million people5) lies in India and livelihoods in the

agrarian economy are heavily dependent on the resource. Floods have affected lakhs of lives in India (3 lakh people hit in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh -

July 2015)6. Reduced water flow could cause salination in Bangladesh (like the Ganga basin)

The Chinese Perspective

1. Large potential for hydropowerWith roughly one-tenth of the country’s entire power generation capacity7, China’s prerogative to tap hydropower has conviction and is a major threat to India’s downstream water needs.

China’s take: Run-of-the-river projects have negligible impact on flow. Also, 70% of the water is added in India and hence damming is not a concern7.

2. Scarcity of water in Southern ChinaBrahmaputra is a lucrative source of water for water-scarce and mineral-poor Southern China8

3. Doctrine of prior appropriationChina has secured water rights over the Brahmaputra by being its first beneficial user through the Zam Hydropower Project, thus strengthening their stance on diplomatic resistance of future hydel projects by India.

1 | P a g e

The Indian Perspective

1. Flood Data PactInsufficient information has resulted in flash floods in the past. The renewal of the Flood Data pact in 2013, ensuring twice-a-day data flow from China in return of information on data usage for flood mitigation in the monsoon season9 saw political leaders stressing on joint co-operation, a welcome step.

2. Agrarian economy in underdeveloped north-eastern statesWith separatist political turbulence in Arunachal Pradesh preventing macroscopic economic development, the economy is largely agrarian and India is rightfully concerned about the supply of irrigation water from the dammed (in China) Brahmaputra.

Also, large diurnal variations in flow (up to 400 percent) owing to repeated pondage in cascaded projects spells doom for aquatic life and hence river-water fishing in India7.

3. Lower riparian rightWith all 14 hydel projects still undergoing planning and facing serious concerns regarding water flow post the Zam Project, India has failed to execute its strategy to capture lower riparian right9.

Negotiation Opportunities

1. SACIWaters ‘Brahmaputra Dialogue’The Brahmaputra Dialogue conducted by the South Asia Consortium for Interdisciplinary Water Resources Studies is an important source for Track 2 and Track 1.5 discussions10. The agenda of the next convention should be prioritized on:

i. Joint protection of communities from hazards pertaining to shared water resources Takeaways: Diplomatic move towards co-operation

ii. Signing the UN Water Courses Convention: Takeaways: Equitable and reasonable utilization, prevention of significant harm, notification of planned measures and information sharing11.

2. BCIM Economic Co-operationAs an additional provision of the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar co-operation12, an agri-SEZ (involving agribusiness co-operatives) could be conceptualized in Arunachal Pradesh utilizing agricultural produce in China as well as India, and inland waterways-facilitated export following BIWTA regulations13, further downstream through Bangladesh. Indian plans to overhaul rivers for shipping would also fuel this initiative14.

2 | P a g e

3. Brahmaputra BoardWith over 1 lakh crore rupees of funding15, the Brahmaputra Board could fund a mega joint hydel-power project with Myanmar and China, in India. Takeaways: Support from Myanmar in negotiations, prevention of future hydel projects in China

4. Multilateral water treatyExtending the October 2013 MoU on co-operation on trans-border rivers11, an all-basin multilateral water treaty with the financial assistance of international development banks (like the Indus Treaty supported by World Bank16) could have the following provisions:

i. Prevention of northern rerouting of the Yarlung Zangboii. Prevention of dams larger than a certain catchment area (for both India and

China)iii. Relaxation of BIWTA regulations for supporting agricultural trade in the basiniv. Information exchange for flood mitigation

References1. http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/97fuaF2aQkO9IjPiPAjMyL/Six-charts-that-explain-Indias-

water-crisis.html2. http://www.pwccn.com/webmedia/doc/635097658425042854_cn_water_scar_jul2013.pdf3. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/china-operationalises-biggest-

dam-on-brahmaputra-in-tibet-india-worried/articleshow/49334904.cms4. http://www1.american.edu/ted/ice/brahmaputra.htm#r15. https://www.mtholyoke.edu/~tetho20z/classweb/dw1/brahmaputra.html6. http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/brahmaputra-crosses-danger-mark-as-

floods-hit-three-lakh-people-in-assam/7. http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/water-wars-china-india-and-the-great-dam-rush/8. http://www.china.org.cn/english/features/38087.htm9. http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-china-renew-flood-data-pact-on-

brahmaputra/article4732965.ece10. www.saciwaters.org/brahmaputra-dialogue/11. Case Study on the Water Management of the Yaluzangbu/Brahmaputra River by Ziyi Huang12. http://cpd.org.bd/index.php/about-us/bangladesh-china-india-myanmar-bcim-pursuing-

regional-economic-cooperation/13. http://www.biwta.gov.bd/website/?page_id=70614. http://www.thethirdpole.net/2015/07/24/india-plans-to-overhaul-rivers-for-shipping/15. http://www.brahmaputraboard.gov.in/16. www.nih.ernet.in/rbis/Indus_treat.htm

3 | P a g e