InDevelopment INCOSE UK Bristol Local Group

Mon 30 Jan 2017

Introduction

Welcome

• Indirect follow-up to INCOSE BLG talks: • Sepsis and Systems Thinking, Gary Smith, 25 Nov 2015

• Thinking, Fast and Slow, Kevan Boll, 13 Jun 2016

• Will start and end together, move between small groups for topics

• Organised time slots so we cover the ground

• Fast-paced but informal session

• Chatham House rule: comments not attributable

Agenda

• Introduction

• Approach

• Small group discussion topics: • Benefitting from MBSE - process vs pragmatism

• Removing bottlenecks in ‘brownfield’ infrastructure

• Transforming mission-critical health services

• Joint feedback session

Timetable

• Introduction and approach: 25 mins

• Small group sessions: 3 x 25 mins

• Joint feedback session: 50 mins

• The timetable is tailored to this evening’s pilot session

• Can be adapted flexibly to other contexts

Overall Aims

Identify and inspire knowledge and practical applications of systems thinking habits and attitudes for:

• Collaborative problem-solving: Collectively investigate a potential framework for learning from experience using anonymous examples based on real-life challenges.

• Shared learning: Create a learning experience for all present, not just those whose topics are being worked on.

• Decision support: Increase awareness of how people make decisions and consider the related benefits of systems thinking.

Tapping into Systems Thinking

• Pilot a fast-track, “café” style idea-generation/lessons-from-experience workshop with small subgroups for maximum participation

• Tackle what may be a “blank page”, bringing many minds quickly to bear on challenging/“wicked” sys eng applications or scenarios

• Generate wide-ranging material for further discussion and investigation

• Work within viewpoints/frameworks associated with systems thinking, as consistent foundations or reference points across diverse fields/problems

• Inspire further investigation of the viewpoints/frameworks, key questions and underlying principles

Approach

A (Slightly) Different Style of Workshop

• Set the scene

• Key elements of the source material

• Approach to café-style discussions and feedback

Origins

• Tim and Sam have attended SCiO1 development days but BLG meetings are on weekday evenings …

• Café-style2 discussions are well-established; we fancied a change from larger group discussions/questions from the floor - could our sys eng/ sys thinking be more focused?

• Pilot/pragmatic first attempt: idealised, “toe in the water”

• Also a “blue hat”3 experiment, thinking about systems thinking while trying to apply systems thinking to real-world problems

1. Systems and Cybernetics in Organisations http://www.scio.org.uk/ 2. E.g. World Café http://www.theworldcafe.com/ 3. In a loose sense; see http://www.debonogroup.com/six_thinking_hats.php

Frameworks + Questions: Topics -> Key Points

• Viewpoints/frameworks – example ways of looking at: • Breadth of systems and thinking about systems • How people think (incl unsystematic ways of thinking) • Constructive/productive habits and attitudes

• Topics: • Concise expressions of problems (core elements/challenges) • High-level examples chosen, but can be applied at any level

• Key questions: • What to think about within viewpoints/frameworks • Ways to look at problems

• Key points: • Concise ideas from sys eng experience/knowledge, triggered by questions

Example Key Points (Ideas)

• Example topic: congestion on ring road

• Key question: if we make a change, how long before we see results?

• Example key points (from theme of immediate/quick results): • Temporary bypass: increase journey capacity without interim loss of capacity

• Temporary park and ride schemes: price to attract users, equivalent to fuel

• Daily compensation to road users: for delays wrt normal traffic speeds

• Identify quick-wins/causes of choke points: fund reduction measures

Key Questions?

• Definitely a “tip of the iceberg” aspect – potentially a huge number

• Many examples stated or implied by sources/books referenced

• Naturally arise from topics and their contexts

• Various examples in handout – pick some if groups need more ideas

• Potential value in thinking about new key questions

• Consider lateral/random allocation, independent of topics

Focused but High-Level -> Breadth and Speed

• Creative but potentially effortful (System 2) look at potential ways forward: • Not out of thin air; some ideas might be tried and tested, others more speculative

• Proposing avenues to investigate, lessons to apply across contexts/fields

• High-level, short statements, think while others speak

• Sparking off each other’s ideas as well as the topics and questions

• Applying key questions is a feature of the approach, causing attendees to think “out of the box” (risk of System 1, but System 2 intended)

• Trying to go quickly, so some System 1 responses will creep in: • Not necessarily related to key questions on heuristics and biases

• Hence comparison questions in feedback session – expose via cross-checks

Systems Thinking Context

Frameworks and Sources of Key Questions

• Systems Tree model (Daniel-Allegro/Smith)

• Introduced to INCOSE BLG by Gary Smith, Airbus Defence and Space

• http://incoseonline.org.uk/Documents/Bristol/INCOSE_UK_Sepsis_Systems_Thinking_2015_11_25.pdf

• Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kahneman)

• Habits of a Systems Thinker (Waters Foundation)

• Introduced to INCOSE BLG by Kevan Boll, Atkins

• http://incoseonline.org.uk/Documents/Bristol/Systems_thinking_fast_and_low.ppsx

Exploring the Branches of the Systems Landscape • Concepts and principles for the science of systems

• Includes a comprehensive but succinct description of the systems tree model and ways of thinking about systems thinking

• Authors: Brigitte Daniel-Allegro and Gary Smith

• 72pp booklet, paperback, ISBN 978-2-9538007-1-5

• Available online from Brigitte http://pensersysteme.fr/2016/03/exploring-the-branches-of-systems-landscape/?lang=en

Systems Tree Model

• If chemistry is the science of substances or the study of matter, then “systemy” is the science or study of the (nature of) systems

• If one who studies science is in general a “scientist”, a scientist of systems (and systems thinking) can be termed a “systemist”4

• In the words of Captain Jack5, “the problem is not the problem; the problem is your attitude about the problem”

• The following slide is from Gary Smith’s Sepsis talk 25 Nov 2015, with the updated Systems Tree from the booklet

• Handout lists attitudes and roots

4. “Physics” is less helpful as an example for systemy but works for systemist. Is physics about systems? 5. As in the “Pirates of the Caribbean” films.

Systemist Attitudes and System Tree Roots

Systemist Attitudes and System Tree Roots

• From “Exploring the Branches …”: • “The systemist approaches a subject in its wholeness, accepts different perspectives

of diverse stakeholders of a situation, of a system. At any time, they are able to play the role of any other actor.” (p22)

• “The attitudes reveal the preparation of the mind and the body of systemists who have an intention to understand a situation or to act. They reflect the systemist’s knowledge, know-how and experience, their emotional reactions and cognitive positions towards a situation.” (p23)

• “When we architect and design systems, the System Tree roots are essential aspects of the systems that we have to master in order to gain a complete understanding.” (p39)

• There is also a “shadow aspect”, or “anti-tree”, of blocking points or attitude “traps” underpinned by “unfounded concept” roots (cf pp 40-41)

Thinking, Fast and Slow

• Accessible and succinct story of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky’s research on the ways our pattern-forming minds make daily decisions

• Goes further than most psychologists in describing the behaviour of the widely-used labels System 1 and System 2

• Many everyday cases alongside examples from economics/statistics

• Includes two surprisingly simple articles cited by the Nobel committee6

• ~500pp, paperback, ISBN 978-0-141-03357-0

• Daniel Kahneman talks/conversations online, e.g. • Two systems of the mind https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4hqvMYBB1c • Book interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWaIE6u3wvw • Experience vs memory https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XgRlrBl-7Yg

6. Kahneman was awarded the 2002 Nobel Prize for Economics; sadly, Tversky had died in 1996.

Two Systems

Copyright ©2017 La Zattera Blog Federico Dondi http://www.lazatterablog.com/?p=1010

Habits of a Systems Thinker

• Ways of thinking about how systems work and how actions impact results over time

• Spectrum of thinking strategies that foster problem-solving and encourage questioning

• Not suggesting systems thinkers are limited to routine thinking

• Encouraging flexible thinking and appreciation of new, emerging insights and multiple perspectives

• http://watersfoundation.org/systems-thinking/habits-of-a-systems-thinker/

• Each habit is linked to a detailed explanation with example questions

Waters Foundation - Vision/Mission

• Academic/lifetime benefits through effective application of systems thinking concepts, habits and tools in classroom instruction and school improvement

• Increase capacity of educators to deliver academic/lifetime benefits through effective application of systems thinking strategies

Copyright ©2017 Waters Foundation

Approach to Small Group Discussions and Joint Feedback Sessions

Small Groups - Logistics and Running Order

• Handouts

• Seating arrangement

• Group allocations

• Discussion cycle (25 mins per topic): • When requested, please move quickly into new groups

• Introductory comments from front on topic and key questions

• Parallel small group discussions

• Facilitator records key points and keeps the discussion moving

• Finish on time for equal priority to all topics, and allow overall feedback

Small Groups - Expressing Ideas as Key Points

• No “right” number of ideas, no target

• Listen well, minimise debate, no judgement of ideas during discussion

• Do not explain/unpack ideas beyond what is needed to capture them

• Use the active voice, focus on actions/goals

• Keep them really short, ideally within one line (max 12-15 words)

• If not verbatim, facilitator has the final say on how ideas are captured

Small Groups - Facilitation

• Take turns around the small group to offer one idea at a time, on topic, in relation to/context of one of the key questions

• Express each idea as a key point for the facilitator to capture

• Keep any explanation/rationale brief; maximise time for new ideas

• Others may request clarification without judgement, but continue generating ideas in the original sequence of group members

• Pass on your turn if needed; keep up the momentum

• If all group members pass, pick a different viewpoint (source material)

• Identify sheets only with topic, group ID and sheet number

Joint Feedback Session

• Display lists of key points per topic

• Considering all key points per topic, succinctly (10 mins per topic): • Suggest points that stand out as high impact/benefit

• Propose topic-related issues for further investigation

• Once each topic has been considered, succinctly (15 mins): • Observe cross-cutting areas of System 1 vs System 2 focus

• Note ambiguities/differences/common factors and features

• Propose broad issues for further investigation

• Final questions and close (5 mins)

Small Group Session A: Benefitting from MBSE - Process vs Pragmatism

Topic - Context/Problem

• An organisation is taking advice on the benefits of MBSE, anticipating quick wins from design/product re-use, as this typically involves considerable time and effort in tailoring

• It has the resources for MBSE tools, consultancy and initial training

• It plans to define an MBSE framework and process tailored to its products

• It plans to dovetail ongoing skills development with project work

• Ability and commitment is high; many users are expected to develop good practice; some will achieve deep knowledge of models/application contexts

• However the framework and process might seem cumbersome; some users may work inconsistently and time/resource pressures may cause shortcuts

Core Goals of Discussion

• Awareness of the Systems Thinking attitudes/habits that need to be cultivated to establish ways of working to: • Make design/product re-use more effective

• Put teams and users on a better footing with each project

• Manage constant improvement of the framework, process and user training

• Enable management to retain confidence in the value of MBSE

Key Questions

• Assuming the framework and process deliver the core benefits required, what attitudes/habits will be fundamental to constant improvement (tailoring, streamlining, pragmatism) while in use?

• Will (or how much will) the challenges (issues/risks) lie in: • Expectations vs culture?

• Scale vs time/resource?

• Training/coaching?

• Other factors?

Small Group Session B: Removing Bottlenecks in ‘Brownfield’ Infrastructure

Topic - Context/Problem

• Defence has a capability to provide SECRET voice and data to a deployed user – relies on SatCom (£, one terminal per security domain) and a replacement is sought that is:

• Cheaper (operating cost/through life)

• More capable – WiFi, 3G/4G, Wired Internet, Voice, more “Domains” – remove bottlenecks

• A “Capability” (not just Equipment, all lines of development: Training, Logistics etc)

• There is little appetite or ability to influence activity outside of the boundary (programmatics)

• How do we remove bottlenecks in ‘Brownfield’ infrastructure?

System of interest

Core Goals of Discussion

• How do we understand enough of the wider system context to enable effective decision making? • To support: acquisition, investment, risk, design, system implementation

• What is the action plan to gain that understanding?

• How do we exploit the understanding gained from systems thinking?

Key Questions

• How do we maintain focus on areas we can influence (vs concerns we cannot influence)?

• What are the key systems relationships and how do they affect our understanding?

• How do we identify leverage points in the system?

• What assumptions do we make up front that affect subsequent architecture and design?

• How do organisation and interaction of parts create emergent behaviour?

Small Group Session C: Transforming Mission-Critical Health Services

Topic - Context/Problem

• New Model Proposed: Nationally-proposed model for Multispecialty Community Providers (MCP). Involves merging multiple GP practices, community nursing and some hospital services/consultants

• Why? Organisational complexity: • Serial NHS reorganisations have fragmented organisations/services. Interfaces are

difficult • Ageing population - increasing co-morbidities mean increasing elderly population

needs more specialist care closer to home

• The Challenge: Tailoring the model to suit local conditions, including: • It’s going to take a long time • Services need to continue operating during change • No money • Little trust between partners/pressurised day-to-day operating environment • No single point of authority

Core Goals of Discussion

• Awareness of the Systems Thinking attitudes/habits that need to be cultivated to: • Identify constraints and opportunities

• Create an environment where partners can work/come together

• Manage the process of tailoring

• Manage the process of implementation

Key Questions

• What attitudes/habits will be fundamental to tailoring the model for the form and function of new organisation/s?

• To what degree will the challenges relate to: • Constant Change: The constantly changing environment, participants and

technology

• Evolution: The likely need to tailor in stages or overlapping iterations – an evolution

• Influence: In the absence of a single point of authority, the need to draw parties together and create trust and motivation

Joint Feedback Session

Joint Feedback Session

• Display lists of key points per topic

• Considering all key points per topic, succinctly (10 mins per topic): • Suggest points that stand out as high impact/benefit

• Propose topic-related issues for further investigation

• Once each topic has been considered, succinctly (15 mins): • Observe cross-cutting areas of System 1 vs System 2 focus

• Note ambiguities/differences/common factors and features

• Propose broad issues for further investigation

• Final questions and close (5 mins)

Potential Next Steps

• Consider (offline unless time permits): • Further topics • Other types of topics • Breadth: other key questions • Depth: multiple aspects of one topic • Extending the approach:

• A more extensive list of questions (and a taxonomy/ontology) • Other frameworks and related key questions

• Refine/change the approach: most/least effective aspects of this event • Level of interest: e.g. frequency of InDev workshops

• Please email the committee on blg@incoseonline.org.uk

Thank You

• Please collect your CPD certificate

• Please join us again

• Next BLG event: • Systems Research Showcase, 13 Mar 2017 Event_Details

• Future events: • Please see the INCOSE UK web page BLG_Events

• Any other questions?