indc preparation process and countries' progress
TRANSCRIPT
COP22 side event “Advancing (I)NDC implementation and ambition: Bridging research and practice”
INDC preparation process and countries’ progress
Takeshi Kuramochi7 November, 2016, Marrakech
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Kick-started, consolidated and enhanced national climate policy processes Increased capacity for climate planningIndirectly enhanced pre-2020 ambition
INDC process as catalyst for national policy making
See Briefing Paper:
Preparation of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) as a catalyst for national climate action (Day et al., 2015)
www.mitigationpartnership.net/indcs-catalysts-climate-action
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Availability of high-quality data and analysisTechnical expertise on potential mitigation options in all sectorsFramework on criteria and approaches to assess ambition and fairnessSocio-economic impact assessments of potential mitigation optionsUnderstanding of finance and resources needed to implement ambitious mitigation
But there were also challenges…
See Briefing Paper:
Challenges and lessons learned in the preparation of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (Kurdziel et al., 2016)www.mitigationpartnership.net/indcs-catalysts-climate-action
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Overview of challenges
Lack of high level political support / mandate
Conflict with other political priorities
Difficulties to assess the level of fairness and ambition
Limited understanding of how to formulate the INDC
Lack of coordination with and between various ministries
Lack of understanding of the objective amongst ministries
Lack of progress in other parallel climate strategy processes
Difficulties to consult broader non-governmental stakeholders
Lack of capacity/ personnel
Limited availability of information / expertise on technical options
Limited synchronisation between the political & technical process
Difficulties to assess economic impacts and co-benefits
Difficulties to assess financial and support needs
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Strongly disagree Somewhat disagree Neither agree nor disagreeSomewhat agree Strongly agree Source: Kurdziel et al. (2016)
5www.climateactiontracker.org
Assessing (I)NDCs based on effort sharing approaches
Country Assessments (incl. current policy projections) updated on 3 November
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Assessing progress
New study by NewClimate Institute, PBL and IIASAFact sheets for 25 major emitting countries comprised of:• 2020 pledge and NDC/INDC information• Overview of current energy and climate
policies• Updated current policy emission
projections (incl. official data)
https://newclimate.org/2016/11/04/greenhouse-gas-mitigation-scenarios-for-major-emitting-countries/
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Main finding: less than a third of the countries are on track to achieve the (I)NDCs
NOTE: a country being likely to meet its targets ≠ it undertakes more stringent action than a country that is not on track
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Main finding: less than a third of the countries are on track to achieve the INDCs
Of the 25 countries, six are (roughly) on track to achieve their self-determined targets with current policies (and one with large uncertainty). The other ones would require additional measures to achieve their 2025/2030 targets. Progress on cutting down greenhouse gas emissions also varies. For some countries currently implemented policies do not stop emissions from increasing until 2030 (above 2010 levels)Still more effort needed to stay well below 2 °C
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Morocco: Raised ambition in NDC
Current policies• Energy supplyo Installed RE capacity of 52% by
2030o 15-20% of total primary energy
by 2030• Energy efficiencyo 20% energy saving in 2030o Minimum efficiency
requirements for new buildings
Additional policies needed partly due to raised ambition in NDC
Source: NewClimate Institute, PBL and IIASA (2016)
NDC: -17% vs. BAU in 2030(unconditional)-42% vs. BAU in 2030(conditional)
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Japan: additional measures needed to achieve 2030 targets
Current policies• Economy-wide
o Global warming tax (3USD/tCO2)• Energy supply
o Renewable electricity target 22-24% by 2030o Renewable Feed-In Tariff
• Energy efficiencyo Top Runner Standardso Building insulation standards
• F-gaseso Act on rational use and proper management
Current policies projections revised downwardAdditional policies needed regardless of future on nuclear
Source: NewClimate Institute, PBL and IIASA (2016)
INDC: -26% vs. 2013 levels
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Mexico: current policies not sufficient for peaking before 2030
Current policies• Energy Transition Lawo Clean energy incl. cogeneration:
35% by 2024 (possibly less ambitious than previous RE targets)
o Power auctions for wind and solar• National Forestry Programmeo Reduce annual deforestation rate
to 0.2% of total forest area in 2018
Current policies projections revised upwardAdditional policies needed to achieve NDC target
NDC: -22% vs. baseline in 2030(unconditional)-26% vs. baseline in 2030(conditional)
