in regard to the manitoba hydro needs for and alternatives to (“nfat”) business case submission...
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In Regard To The Manitoba Hydro Needs For And Alternatives To (“NFAT”)
Business Case Submission
submitted to:The Manitoba Public Utilities Board
by:Bruce Duggan
DirectorBuller Centre for Business
Providence University College & SeminaryOtterburne, MB
Mandates
PUB– acts as proxy for citizens
Manitoba citizens– are being asked to co-sign a loan
Our interest as citizens:– to have Manitoba Hydro fulfill its core mandate,
at the least cost and risk
Manitoba Hydro’s Core Mandate
“…maintaining reliable, affordable and environmentally sustainable energy for its customers, while ensuring long-term financial sustainability.”
Manitoba Hydro. August 2013. Needs For and Alternatives To. “Executive Summary” page 1.
Manitoba Hydro’s Core Mandate
“…maintaining reliable, affordable and environmentally sustainable energy for its customers, while ensuring long-term financial sustainability.”
Manitoba Hydro. August 2013. Needs For and Alternatives To. “Executive Summary” page 1.
energy that is…1. reliable2. affordable3. environmentally sustainable
while ensuring…4. long-term financial sustainability
Discounting Export Demand
United States Energy Information Administration. January 31, 2014. "Natural Gas Gross Withdrawals and Production" http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_prod_sum_dcu_nus_a.htm
1: An Inexorable Rise In Demand?
Figure 4.17 from Manitoba Hydro, August 2013. Needs For and Alternatives To. “The Need for New Resources” chapter 4, page 33.
Figure 3 from Manitoba Hydro 2012/13 Power Resource Plan, page 23. https://www.hydro.mb.ca/regulatory_affairs/electric/gra_2012_2013/2012-13_Power_Resource_Plan.pdf.
1: An Inexorable Rise In Demand?
Needs For and Alternatives To. “The Need for New Resources” chapter 3, page 4.
1: An Inexorable Rise In Demand?
Natural Resources Canada “Comprehensive Energy Use Database” http://oee.nrcan.gc.ca/corporate/statistics/neud/dpa/comprehensive_tables/list.cfm?attr=0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
ManitobaAnnual Change in Electrical Use
1: An Inexorable Rise In Demand?
Natural Resources Canada “Comprehensive Energy Use Database” http://oee.nrcan.gc.ca/corporate/statistics/neud/dpa/comprehensive_tables/list.cfm?attr=0
1: An Inexorable Rise In Demand?
Figure 4.3 Needs For and Alternatives To. “The Need for New Resources” chapter 4, page 8.
Implications for Capital Expenditure Forecast
Figure 3-1 “Capital Expenditure Forecast” Consolidated Integrated Financial Forecast (IFF12), page 10.
In Regard To The Manitoba Hydro Needs For And Alternatives To (“NFAT”)
Business Case Submission
submitted to:The Manitoba Public Utilities Board
by:Bruce Duggan
DirectorBuller Centre for Business
Providence University College & SeminaryOtterburne, MB
“Projected Consolidated Borrowing Requirements.” Figure 4-1 Consolidated Integrated Financial Forecast (IFF12), page 12.
“Extraprovincial Revenues.” Figure 2-1 Consolidated Integrated Financial Forecast (IFF12), page 5.
Needs For and Alternatives To. Appendix 5.3.: The Brattle Group, July 2013. Electricity Market Overview for Manitoba Hydro’s Export Market in MISO. “The Shale Gas Revolution” slide 24. Source: EIA, 2013 Annual Energy Outlook.
J. David HughesDrill, Baby, Drill: Can Unconventional Fuels Usher in a New Era of Energy Abundance?
Bill Powers Cold, Hungry and in the Dark: Exploding the Natural Gas Supply Myth
Improvements in Energy Intensity
Residential 1990 2011 change
Manitoba 1.16 0.86 GJ/m2 -26%Canada 1.06 0.76 -28%
Commercial/Institutional 1990 2011 change
Manitoba 1.72 1.56 GJ/m2 -9%Canada 1.68 1.50 -11%
Natural Resources Canada “Comprehensive Energy Use Database” http://oee.nrcan.gc.ca/corporate/statistics/neud/dpa/comprehensive_tables/list.cfm?attr=0
Manitoba Hydro Act
Purposes and objects of Act2 The purposes and objects of this Act are to provide for the
continuance of a supply of power adequate for the needs of the province, and to engage in and to promote economy and efficiency in the development, generation, transmission, distribution, supply and end-use of power and, in addition, are(a) to provide and market products, services and expertise related
to the development, generation, transmission, distribution, supply and end-use of power, within and outside the province; and
(b) to market and supply power to persons outside the province on terms and conditions acceptable to the board.
https://web2.gov.mb.ca/laws/statutes/ccsm/h190e.php
Benchmarking
Wind Generation“Capital estimate developed using industry benchmarking, with independent consultant to assess systemic risks.”
Table 10.15: Economic Evaluation - Uncertainty Matrix. Needs For and Alternatives To. “Economic Uncertainty Analysis - Probabilistic Analysis and Sensitivities” chapter 10, page 61.
“Manitoba Hydro and Great River Energy have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to jointly investigate the sale of up to 600 megawatts (MW) of electricity from Manitoba Hydro to Great River Energy, commencing in approximately 2020.”
Manitoba Hydro News Releases February 21, 2014. “Manitoba Hydro and Great River Energy Announce 600 MW Power Sale Memorandum of Understanding” https://www.hydro.mb.ca/NewsReleases/GetDetail
“Purchasing power from Manitoba Hydro’s future proposed hydraulic generating facilities provides U.S. customers an opportunity to reduce risk exposure and to help address their concerns with respect to pending regulation and legislation on emissions associated with fossil-fuel generating facilities, price stability and portfolio diversification.”
Needs For and Alternatives To. “The Window of Opportunity” chapter 6, page 3.
“…WPS recently advised that an investment in the 750 MW Interconnection Transmission does not match their current business objectives and that they will not invest in the line….In the development plans without the WPS sale but with a 750 MW interconnection, a conservative assumption has been used whereby Manitoba Hydro will be responsible for approximately two-thirds of the capital.”
Needs For and Alternatives To. “Executive Summary” pages 6-7.
“Non-renewable resource revenue is forecast at $2.7 billion….Potash revenue is forecast at $519.9 million….Oil revenue is forecast at $1.4 billion…”
Saskatchewan Provincial Government Budget 13-14 “Budget Summary” pages 38-39. Accessed February 25 from http://www.finance.gov.sk.ca/budget2013-14/2013-14BudgetSummary.pdf.