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Immigration TodayAuthor(s): Barbara M. WatsonReviewed work(s):Source: International Migration Review, Vol. 4, No. 3, U.S. Immigration, 1970: Policies,Proceedures, Problems (Summer, 1970), pp. 47-51Published by: The Center for Migration Studies of New York, Inc.Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3002323.

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Immigration Todayby Barbara M. Watson *

We are now in the second year after the first major change inimmigration legislation and policy since 1924, and the experience ofthe first year may give us a glimpse of the shape of immigration ofthe future.Some of the changes wrought by the Act of October 3, 1965,come immediately to mindi Foremost, perhaps, is the sharp upsurgein immigration from Asia. The shift from northern Europe to southernEurope as a primary source of immigration has been equally significant.The increase in total volume of immigration is unmistakable andseemingly permanent, despite the recent imposition of a numericallimitation on immigration from the Western Hemisphere. Not leastimportant among the changes is that the hemispheric limitation hadthe initial effect of cutting immigration from Canada, one of our twoclosest neighbors, to approximately half the former level.Looking more closely at each of these phenomena, we find firstthat there are at least two sources of the impetus toward more immi?gration from the East, both somewhat psychological. Demand forimmigration is seemingly stimulated by the opportunity to immigrate.Thus when the former quotas of 10G (or so) per annum were abolished,the rate of petitioning to establish a preference status for relativesbounded upward. At the same time, the right extended to membersof the professions to file petitions in their own behalf for third

preference status, coupled with relatively limited professional oppor?tunities in their homelands, led to a torrent of third preference petitionsby Asians, most particularly Filipinos, Chinese, and Indians. As aresult, total immigration from the former Asia-Pacific Triangle rosefrom 15,186 in fiscal year 1965 to 80,971 in fiscal year 1969.It is noteworthy that this increase was not, in strictly numericalterms, at the expense of immigration from other parts of the EasternHemisphere. (Only the Western Hemisphere is defined in the Immi?gration and Nationality Act; we thus define administratively all the* Barbara M. Watson, Administrator,Bureau of Security and Consular Affairs,Department of State, USA.

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48 THE INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION REVIEWrest of the world as the Eastern Hemisphere.) The level of immigrationfrom the rest of the Hemisphere (Europe, Africa, Oceania) remainedstatic or rose slightly. Under prior law, however, upwards of one-third of allowable quota numbers were unused each year. Now themaximum ceiling is being reached annually and the difference is inAsian immigration.There is, however, room for debate as to whether in specificcategories (most particularly third preference) the predominance ofAsian applicants is deterring immigration by others. For the moment,at least, the answer is no. Despite the fact that 90% of the 17,000third preference visa numbers were allocated to natives of just fiveAsian nations in fiscal year 1969, over 12,000 members of the profes?sions, scientists and artists of exceptional ability, and kindred workerswere admitted in that same year from Europe, Africa, and Oceania.These immigrants may have had a preference status based on relation?ship to a United States citizen or resident alien but it is likely thatmost were admitted in the nonpreference class. Because of a demandin excess of the 20,000 foreign state limitation by applicants in higherpreferences, nonpreference visa numbers were not available for personsborn in the Philippines (nor in China until the last month of the fiscalyear). Therefore, although persons born in those foreign states werepreempting most of the third preference visa numbers, they werecontributing to the availability of nonpreference visa numbers for others.

By contrast, the altered pattern of immigration from Europe stemsmore from technical changes in the law than from psychological impetus.Previously, certain relatives of United States citizens and resident alienswere entitled to 50% of each country's quota. Now they are entitledto 74% of the overall ceiling of 170,000 for the Eastern Hemisphere.This was and is of immediate and continuing benefit to applicantsfrom those countries in which family associations are very close and inwhich there has been a tradition of emigrating in family groups. Primaryamong these have been Italy, Greece, and Portugal, from each of whichthe level of immigration has multiplied since 1965. Conversely, immi?grants from northern Europe have traditionally been those seekingenlarged opportunities, a chance for a new life in a new environment.Such intending immigrants must now compete for the reduced amountof visa numbers available for the third and sixth preference and non-preference classes. In addition, they must obtain a certification from theSecretary of Labor to the effect they will not displace nor otherwiseadversely affect American labor. Since, in many instances, this meansthey must have pre-arranged employment, this labor certificationrequirement at least delays immigration by such aliens, even if it doesnot totally deter it.

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IMMIGRATIO TODAY 49Given present conditions, there is no reason to expect the overallvolume of immigration to change markedly. With the removal of such

artificial barriers to demand itself (as well as to the satisfaction ofdemand) as the national quotas were, reaching the annual limitationfor each hemisphere should be almost automatic each year. (This couldalways be offby a few numbers, of course, due to unexpected returnsof numbers at the end of June, such as happened in 1968 when* only 169,945 of the 170,000 visa numbers were used.) The onlyexpectable variants from the authorized total volume, however, wouldbe in the levels of immediate relatives and of certain special immigrants.The Western Hemisphere changes have been felt more sharplythan some of the others, perhaps, because this is the first time in ourhistory that immigration from our neighbors has been subject to anumerical limitation. There has thus been a certain element of shock(as distinct from surprise) from the results of the new system.A fact that might seem obvious but which is easily overlooked isthat there is no need for a method of allocating visas when there isno numerical limitation. That is, no applicant will be unable to get avisa because someone else used the number if immigration isunrestricted. Priority dates and other long-familiar trappings of theEastern Hemisphere system were strangers in the Western Hemisphere ...until July 1, 1968. Because they were foreign to such immigration,they suddenly loomed larger than life to those affected.The absence of a preference system with respect to WesternHemisphere immigration necessarily established a first-come, first-servedbasis for the allocation of the limited visa numbers, which is in keepingwith the nonpreference (and the within-preference) system of theEastern Hemisphere. The family-unification concept that permeatesmuch of the law is also necessarily applied in the Western Hemispherewith respect to derivative priority dates as it is in the rest of theworld.

In the first year of operation this proved to favor immigrantsfrom countries from which, traditionally, the principal alien enteredthe United States first and his family members followed later to joinhim, because those remaining family members had earlier prioritydates than new principal applicants. Much, if not most, of this earlydemand has now been satisfied, but it was sufficient to cause the build?up of a nine-month backlog of new demand in fiscal year 1969. As newprincipal applicants are more evenly distributed, however, this advantageshould be minimized with the passage of time.There does not, on the other hand, appear to be any ready solutionto the fact that demand substantially exceeds the maximum allowableimmigration, which negates any prospect for eroding the backlog.

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50 THE INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION REVIEWOne other new factor has been added to Western Hemisphereimmigration, that of identifying the immediate relatives of United States

citizens. Prior to the imposition of the annual ceiling, all natives ofindependent countries of the Western Hemisphere were nonquotaand no distinctions as to category were necessary. Now those who canbe exempt from the numerical limitation, both immediate relativesand other special immigrants, are being identified as such. Having noearlier figures for comparison, it is too early to say how much effectthis will have on the total intra-hemisphere immigration level. It isworthy of note, however, that the natives of our nearest neighborsamong the Western Hemisphere nations, Canada, Mexico, and Cuba,have had the highest naturalization rates for at least the past decade.That this may provide some cushion against the downward slope ofoverall immigration is shown by the fact that between 20-25% ofCanadian and Mexican immigration in fiscal year 1969 was by imme?diate relatives.

The weight of an animal does not tell us much about its anatomy,and, by the same token, mere volume reports ignore importantaspects of the shape of immigration. It is significant, for example, thatmore than half of our immigrants are housewives, children, and othernon-workers. That is, they are persons who will stimulate productionof goods and services, as new consumers, without offsetting theemployment opportunities this creates by adding themselves to thelabor market.

This high proportion of spouses and children naturally tells ussomething of the ages of our immigrants, the majority (almost 60%)of whom are under the age of thirty; the under-forty group encompassesslightly more than 75% of all immigrants. Although the children arefairly evenly divided by sex, there are about half again as many womenas men in the 20-39-year age span, the greatest disparity being in the20-29-years-olds. This is largely attributable to the approximately 20,000brides our servicemen bring home each year.The proposed occupations of the other immigrants suggest apicture of conditions in their homelands as well as in the UnitedStates. (Despite the fact the majority of our immigrants are relatives/'a substantial proportion are drawn by the thought of greater economicor professional opportunities.) Their potential contribution to the UnitedStates can be inferred from the fact over twenty percent are inprofessional, technical, and kindred fields and almost 14% more arecraftsmen. It certainly says something about the standard of living inthe United States that over ten percent are live-in domestics who wereable to obtain labor certifications. It may be indicative of world-wideconditions that farmers and farmworkers are among the smallest of the

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IMMIGRATIO TODAY 51occupational groups, despite the combined facts that immigrants enteringunder a relative preference do not need a labor certification, thatmost immigrants are relatives, and most such relatives comefrom predominantly agricultural areas.Although a number of legislative proposals have been made in thepast year or two to smooth out a few rough edges that have appearedin these early days under a new law, it seems somewhat premature (inview of our limited experience with it) to determine yet whether...let alone how ... the immigration provisions should be altered further.The first chapter of this new book has been intriguing in many ways.We will need to read another one or two chapters before we can reallytell whether or not we like the story it tells.

DEMOCRAPHYVolume 7, number 3, August 1970Fertility and Economic Activity of Women in Guatemala City, 1964

Murray Gendell, Maria Nydia Maraviglia, and Philip C. KreitnerInterracial Marriage: Data for Philadelphia and PennsylvaniaThomas P. MonahanThe Decline in Mortality in British Guiana, 1911-1960Jay R. MandleThe Geometric Mean of the Age-Specific Death Rates37 3 Summary Index of MortalityRobert SchoenThe Effect of the Great Blackout of 1965 on Births in New York CityJ. Richard UdrySubjective Efficacy and Ideal Family Size as Predicators of FavorabilityToward Birth ControlJohn B. WilliamsonStable Age by Region DistributionsGriffthM. FeeneyEstimators of a Type I Geometric Distribution From Observations onConception TimesH. Majumdar and Mindel C. ShepsElementary Models for Population Growth and Distribution AnalysisJohnC. HudsonThe Per-Capita-Income Criterios and Natlity Policies in Poor CountriesJulian L. SimonSummary of the Social Sciences and Populotion Policy: A SurveyEdwin D. DriverFor further nformation,please contactPopulation Association of AmericaP. O. Box 14182Benjamin Franklin StationWashington, D. C. 20044