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Improving Your Crop Marketing Skills:Basis, Cost of Ownership, and Market Carry
Nathan Thompson & James MintertPurdue Center for Commercial Agriculture
Many Different Ways to Price Grain Today1) Spot Price2) Forward contract3) Hedge using futures4) Hedge using options5) Hedge To Arrive 6) Variety of New generation marketing tools from
grain merchandisersEvaluating these alternatives requires some knowledge of basis
New Generation Contracts• Often use rules to spread quantities out over time
• Sometimes trade futures on behalf of client
• Sometimes trade options on behalf of client
• Sometimes rely on “experts” to time sales
But all of them require a producer to set basis when the producer thinks it’s advantageous
What is basis?• Basis = Local cash price – Futures price• Local cash price = Futures price + Basis• Ability to decompose a local cash price into its
2 component parts1) futures price and2) basis
is important for risk management• We can manage futures price risk and basis
risk separately to improve returns
Crop Marketing Matrix
Expected Change
Futures Price
Futures Price
BasisBasis
Up
Down
Strengthen Weaken
1. Store and wait2. Delayed price contract3. Minimum price
contract (open basis)
1. Basis contract2. Sell cash and buy futures
or call option3. Minimum price contract
(fixed basis)
1. Hedge (sell futures)2. Hedge to arrive3. Buy put option
1. Cash sale2. Forward contract
Source: Iowa State University, Extension and Outreach, Crop Marketing Strategies
How can we forecast basis?• Examining past basis data in your local market area is a
good way to forecast basis
• Basis is seasonal so several years of past basis data from the time of year you’re trying to forecast is needed
• To evaluate storage opportunities, useful to have access to basis computed using deferred futures contracts
But do you maintain historical records of basis data in your local area?
Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture Crop Basis Tool
• Basis data available back to 2004/2005 crop year
• Weekly (Wednesday) basis observations
• Updated every week• Basis averaged by crop
reporting district• You select the county and
the tool chooses correct district for you
Michigan
Illinois Indiana Ohio
Purdue Crop Basis ToolYou Can Choose Crop, Location, & Comparison Years
Print or save chart using this button
Want a forecast for late Feb. basis off of March futures? Use the 3-year average as your starting point.
Purdue Crop Basis ToolYou Can Also Track Basis Computed Using Deferred Futures
Tracking basis using a deferred futures contract can be a handy way to estimate basis gains during storage season
Purdue Crop Basis ToolYou Can Easily Change from Corn to Soybeans
Purdue Crop Basis ToolOr Examine Basis Using a Deferred Futures Contract
Extraordinarily weak basis this past fall created a strong incentive to store and capture expected increase in basis during storage season
Basis Forecasting Thumb Rules• Soybeans– Most recent 2-year average generally provided
most accurate forecasts§ Corn– Most recent 3-Year average generally provided
most accurate forecasts• Forecast accuracy for both corn and soybeans
drops sharply past end of May…that makes estimating returns to storage into summer risky
Returns to speculative storage Store corn unpriced from harvest to late May
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Speculative storage
Average return = +$0.33/bu.
Speculating on cash price means you are speculating on both futures price and basis
Returns to speculative storage Store soybeans unpriced from harvest to late May
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$/bu
. abo
ve ca
sh sa
le a
t har
vest
Year
Speculative storage
Average return = +$1.09/bu.
Speculating on cash price means you are speculating on both futures price and basis
Earn Storage Returns at Lower RiskBy Capturing Basis Increases During Storage Season
• Goal is to capture expected increases in basis during storage season, without being exposed to futures price risk
• Owner of the cash commodity benefits from increases in basis during the storage season
• Change in basis between the time the short futures hedge is placed and lifted effectively becomes the gross return to storage
• But to take advantage of this low risk way to earn storage returns, you need to be able to forecast basis with some reliability
Capturing Basis Gains Example• 20,000 bu. of corn harvested and placed in the bin
on Indiana farm in late October
• Store for late May delivery
• Want to capture expected increase in basis
• But unwilling to speculate on the futures price of corn
• Solution: Sell July futures to lock in futures price and continue to speculate on increase in basis
Capturing Basis Gains Example• Hedge the cash market sale using July Corn Futures
– Sell July futures as a temporary substitute for the cash market sale of corn that will take place in late May
– When cash market sale is made in late May, offset the original July futures sale by issuing an order to “buy” July futures since the “temporary substitute” for the cash sale is no longer needed
– The 2 futures transactions cancel each other out or “offset” each other
– Gain or loss from futures transaction is added to cash price received for corn, generating an “Actual Sale Price for Corn”
Capturing Basis Gains Example• Sell 20,000 bu. of corn futures (short corn futures)
– “Locks In” futures price component of local cash price
Local cash price = Futures price + Basis
– Basis left unpriced, means producer continues to speculate on basis
– If basis becomes more positive during storage, the owner of the grain benefits from the increase
• Farmer harvests 20,000 bu. of corn and stores it in bin
– This makes the farmer “long cash corn”
Capturing Basis Gains Example
• Hedge is lifted when the grain is sold in late May
• Simultaneous two-step process:– Sell 20,000 bu. of corn to local elevator
– Buy back 20,000 bu. of corn futures to offset the original short position
Capturing Basis Gains Example
• Lets work through an example!
Capturing Basis Gains – Takeaways • Historical data helps us form expectations
– What happened in the past is a good indicator of what to expect this year
• It is not a guarantee of what is actually going to happen
– Just because we expect basis to strengthen to -$0.02 does not guarantee that it actually will
– There is still risk associated with leaving basis unpriced, but Basis risk (variability) < Futures Price risk (variability) or Cash Price risk (variability)
Capturing Basis Gains – Takeaways
• For Hedger, Actual Return to Storage does not depend on futures price going up or down
• For Hedger, Actual Return to Storage depends entirelyon actual basis change during storage season
– Given historical basis patterns and market fundamentals, basis will usually strengthen through the storage season
– Does basis strengthen enough to offset total carrying charge?
Capturing Basis Gains – Things to consider• Every year is different– Read storage signals in that crop year
– Adjust storage strategy accordingly
• Avoid storing in years that history says are likely to provide negative storage returns
– Inverted market – negative carry charge in futures market
– Generally years when the national crop is small
• Often occurs in drought years
In the previous example
• We computed basis off of a deferred futures contract (July) locking in market carry
• Market carry is embedded within the expected increase in deferred basis– Improvement in deferred basis = improvement in
nearby basis + market carry when hedge is placed
Market carry
The difference in price between the nearby futures contract
and more distant (deferred) delivery futures contracts
Dec. $3.78
Mar. $3.90
May $3.97
Jul. $4.02Sep. $4.03
+$0.12
+$0.07
+$0.05
+$0.01Market carry Oct. 2018
• Are the size of these steps constant
over time?
• In other words, does it matter when we
lock in market carry?
Market carry
• Look at market carry over time– Focus on time period from January prior to harvest
through December following harvest
• Look at historical averages – is there a pattern?
• For simplicity we focus on the spread between Dec. and July futures specifically
Market carry
• July – December corn futures price spread
Dec. $3.78
Mar. $3.90
May $3.97
Jul. $4.02 Sep. $4.03
+$0.12
+$0.07
+$0.05+$0.01Market carry Oct. 2018
+$0.24
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849
NovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan
cen
ts/b
u.
Month/Week
When is the best time to lock in market carry?
Jul. – Dec. Corn Futures Price Spread
14 Year Average (2004-2018)
On average
market carry
is maximized
in Oct./Nov.
When is the best time to lock in market carry?Jul. – Dec. Corn Futures Price Spread, First Week of November, Year-by-year
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
cents/bu
.
Year
Capturing market carry
• From the previous charts we can see that on average the Jul-Dec futures price spread is widest in Oct/Nov
• Locking in the spread at harvest by hedging the deferred futures contract maximizes market carry
• But does it maximize the price received?
Capturing market carry• Simple storage hedge– Hedging deferred futures contract prior to harvest leaves
market carry on the table
– Hedging the deferred futures contract at harvest maximizes market carry, but leaves grain unpriced until harvest
• This may not be preferred:– May want to price at least a portion of your grain prior to
harvest to spread out price risk or lock in profitable prices
– What about Futures price seasonality?
3.90
4.00
4.10
4.20
4.30
4.40
4.50
4.60
4.70
23456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748
NovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan
$/b
u.
Month/Week
Jul. Futures
Corn Futures Price Seasonality
On average futures prices follow a seasonal pattern
with lows at harvest
Dec. Futures
Dec. and July Corn Futures Prices
14-Year Average (2004-2018)
How to do a better job of capturing market carry when placing a pre-harvest hedge?• Hedge the Dec corn contract prior to harvest
and “roll” the hedge forward when the futures price spread tends to reach its seasonal peak
• Provides flexibility to lock in favorable/profitable futures prices prior to harvest, but leaves open the opportunity to maximize market carry and capture basis gains
“Rolling” futures hedge example
• Same problem as before
• 20,000 bu. of corn to be harvested and placed in the bin on Indiana farm in late October
• Plan to store for late May delivery to capture expected increase in basis that we saw in the previous example
“Rolling” futures hedge example• However, this time we want to maximize market
carry by rolling the futures hedge in November• Place hedge in January 2019 using Dec. ‘19 futures to
lock in the futures price for ‘19 crop – Sell Dec. ‘19 futures as a temporary substitute for the cash
market sale of corn that will take place May ’20
– Alternatively, could sell July ‘20 futures in January ’19, which is what we did in the previous example
– But the market generally discounts carry for sales that far out in the future – this is what we saw in the charts earlier
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849
NovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan
cent
s/bu
.
Month/Week
When is the best time to lock in market carry?
Jul. – Dec. Corn Futures Price Spread14-Year Average (2004-2018)
“Rolling” futures hedge example• Roll the hedge from Dec. to July corn futures
contract in November when Jul. – Dec. futures price spread is typically widest– To roll the hedge, buy back the original Dec. ‘19
futures sale, offsetting the original position– Simultaneously sell a July ‘20 futures contract– The difference between the July ‘20 futures price
and the Dec. ‘19 futures price when the hedge is rolled is the market carry captured
“Rolling” futures hedge example• Hedge is lifted when the grain is sold in late May
• Simultaneous two-step process:– Sell 20,000 bu. of corn to local elevator – locking in
basis
– Buy back 20,000 bu. of July ‘20 corn futures to offset the short futures position
“Rolling” futures hedge example
• Lets work through an example!
“Rolling” futures - Takeaways• Rolling futures allows us to maximize market carry while
offering flexibility on when we place the initial hedge
– On average, may pick up 5 to 10 cents in market carry from beginning of year to harvest time because of widening futures price spread
– Can also pick up more from changes in overall price level assuming historical seasonality in futures holds
– Can also lose money if the market inverts – must stay on top of these positions
“Rolling” futures – Things to consider • Many of the same caveats as the simple storage hedge – Not a guarantee – there is risk associated with basis and
futures price spreads– Again, these tend to be more predictable (less risky) than
overall price levels
• For Hedger, Actual Return to Storage does not depend on futures price going up or down – depends entirely on basis change and market carry
• Every year is different– Read storage signals in that crop year– Adjust storage strategy accordingly
“Rolling” futures hedge - soybeans
• The same concepts apply to soybeans
• However, it is important to note that soybeans do not necessarily follow the same patterns for futures, market carry, or basis
“Rolling” futures hedge - soybeans
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344
OctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan
cent
s/bu
.
Month/Week
Jul. – Nov. Soybean Futures Price Spread14-Year Average (2004-2018)
“Rolling” futures hedge - soybeans
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
cent
s/bu
.
Year
Jul. – Nov. Futures Price Spread First Week of October, Year by year
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
cent
s/bu
.
Year
“Rolling” futures hedge - soybeansJul. – Nov. Futures Price Spread First Week of July, Year by year
“Rolling” futures hedge - soybeans
9.30
9.50
9.70
9.90
10.10
10.30
10.50
234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344
OctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan
$/bu
.
Month/Week
Jul. Futures
Nov. Futures
Nov. and July Soybean Futures Prices14-Year Average (2004-2018)
• On average market carry is maximized around the beginning of October (~4 weeks prior to expiration month – November)
• Market carry is more volatile (less predictable) than corn – higher highs and lower lows
• Futures price seasonality follows a similar pattern to corn with harvest lows and summer highs on average
“Rolling” futures hedge - soybeans
Returns to different corn storage strategies
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Speculative storage Jan storage hedge with roll
Speculative average = +$0.33/bu.
Jan. storage hedge with roll average = +$0.30/bu.
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Speculative storage Jan storage hedge with roll Jun storage hedge with roll
Speculative average = +$0.33/bu.
Jan. storage hedge with roll average = +$0.30/bu.
Jun. storage hedge with roll average = +$0.45/bu.
Returns to different corn storage strategies
Returns to different soybean storage strategies
-5.00
-4.00
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$/bu
. abo
ve ca
sh sa
le a
t har
vest
Year
Speculative storage Jan storage hedge with roll
Speculative average = +$1.09/bu.
Jan. storage hedge with roll average = +$0.02/bu.
Returns to different soybean storage strategies
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$/bu
. abo
ve ca
sh sa
le a
t har
vest
Year
Speculative storage Jan storage hedge with roll Jun storage hedge with roll
Speculative average = +$1.09/bu.
Jan. storage hedge with roll average = +$0.02/bu.
Jun. storage hedge with roll average = +$0.70/bu.
Thank you!
• Website: Purdue.edu/commercialag
• Contacts:– Nathan Thompson – 765-494-0593, [email protected]– James Mintert – 765-494-4310, [email protected]