improving the estimation of the contribution …nap.psa.gov.ph/ncs/12thncs/papers/invited/ips-31...
TRANSCRIPT
Page 1 of 25
12th National Convention on Statistics (NCS) EDSA Shangri-La Hotel
October 1-2, 2013
THE FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS: THREATS IN THE
PHILIPPINE STATISTICAL SYSTEM
by
Romulo A. Virola
For additional information, please contact:
Author’s name Romulo A. Virola
Designation Former Secretary General, National Statistical Coordination Board & Consultant
Affiliation “Statistically Speaking” Consultancy Services (SSCS) Address #2 Camia Street, Vergonville, Las Piñas City Tel. no. +632-8717264; +639175278265
E-mail [email protected]
Page 2 of 25
THE FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS: THREATS IN THE
PHILIPPINE STATISTICAL SYSTEM
by
Romulo A. Virola1
Abstract
Concerned with the integrity, credibility, and professionalism of national statistical systems (NSS), the United Nations Statistical Commission adopted in 1994 the Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics (FPOS).
The FPOS provides guidance to NSSs and to official statisticians in the delivery of statistical products and services to their stakeholders. However, despite its adoption by UN member countries, there have been cases cited recently where national statistical systems of specific countries may have possibly violated the FPOS. In fact, a Chief Statistician has resigned and another has been threatened with charges of unprofessional conduct in the compilation/release of official statistics.
Given the pronounced policies of the Aquino administration on good governance, transparency, accountability, “tuwid na daan”, etc., this paper examines the FPOS and assesses the challenges and prospects as well as raises questions on their application and implementation in the Philippine Statistical System (PSS). The paper also makes recommendations on how to enhance the credibility of the PSS through the FPOS.
KEY WORDS AND PHRASES: Integrity, credibility, professionalism, national statistical system, fundamental principles of official statistics, official statisticians, violation, violators, and threats.
I. Introduction
With globalization and innovation as driving forces during the Third Millennium,
information, and therefore, statistics, has become a very important, if not the most important
commodity. Thus, the statistical profession has been referred to as the sexy profession2 of the
1 Former Secretary General of the National Statistical Coordination Board of the Philippines, Former
Member of the Friends of the Chair of the United Nations Statistical Commission on the Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics, and currently, Chair of the Friends of the Chair on Formulating the 2015-2019 Strategic Plan for the UNESCAP Statistical Institute for Asia and the Pacific. The author acknowledges the assistance of some members of the NSCB Technical Staff in the preparation of this paper. 2 Google’s Chief Economist, Hal Varian said in 2009, “I keep saying the sexy job in the next ten years will
be statisticians. People think I’m joking, but who would’ve guessed that computer engineers would’ve been the sexy job of the 1990s?”
Page 3 of 25
decade (see [12]); statistics is now the fastest-growing major3 at the University of California in
Berkeley ( see [13] ); and the next billionaire in the United States is a statistician4, (see [8]).
But while the private sector has been engagingly more active in the generation of
statistics, the big bulk of statistics produced in a country is generated by official statisticians
from national statistical agencies and other institutions belonging to the national statistical
system (NSS), i.e. by government. In the Philippines, the primary data collection agencies are
the National Statistics Office (NSO), BAS, BLES, BSP and line agencies like the DepEd, DOH,
DSWD, DENR, DOT, and others which comprise the Philippine Statistical System (PSS). The
National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) serves as the coordinator of the PSS.
Unfortunately, in many countries, especially in developing countries, things done by government
generally do not earn the highest levels of public trust and confidence. But regardless of who
produces them, for statistics to be used and be useful, they must have credibility and must have
been generated with high standards of professionalism and scientific rigor.
In the generation of official statistics, statisticians in government are guided by decisions
and recommendations adopted by the United Nations Statistical Commission5 (UNSC) which
serves as a global oversight body on statistical matters (see [20]). The UN Statistics Division
(UNSD) serves as the Secretariat of the UNSC and spearheads the preparation of sources and
methods that provide methodological guidance to countries in the compilation of official statistics
(see[19]).The UN member countries are of course at liberty to adapt many of these decisions
and recommendations to suit local conditions, and may in fact, take some time to fully
implement them6.
Recognizing the need for a set of principles governing official statistics that should be of
global significance, “bearing in mind that the essential trust of the public in the integrity of
official statistical systems and confidence in statistics depend to a large extent on respect for the
fundamental values and principles that are the basis of any society seeking to understand itself
3 Statistics majors grew from 83 in 2009 to 323 in 2013 or a growth of 289%, followed by computer
science, cognitive science, society and environment, geography and applied mathematics. However, in terms of number of majors, UC Berkeley’s top major is still electrical engineering and computer science. 4 He is Dennis Gillings, a statistician who helped create the multibillion-dollar industry of conducting
research studies for drug giants. 5 The UNSC, established in 1947, is the apex entity of the global statistical system. It is the highest
decision making body for international statistical activities especially the setting of statistical standards, the development of concepts and methods and their implementation at the national and international level. It oversees the work of the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD), and is a Functional Commission of the UN Economic and Social Council 6 One example is the 1993/2008 SNA, the universal guidelines on the compilation of national accounts,
which many developing countries have not fully implemented.
Page 4 of 25
and respect the rights of its members, and in this context that professional independence and
accountability of statistical agencies are crucial” 7, the UNSC at its Special Session on 11-15
April 1994 adopted the United Nations (UN) Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics
(FPOS). In addition to the FPOS, official statisticians are guided by Codes of Professionalism
and Ethics adopted by various statistical bodies8 as well as by the UN Handbook of Statistical
Organization (see [3]) .
Recently, a number of events and circumstances relating to the behavior of national
statistical agencies, chief statisticians, and governments have highlighted the importance of the
FPOS. On the local front, it is well recognized that Pres. Benigno S. Aquino III convincingly won
in the 2010 elections on a platform of good governance, transparency, and accountability. In
fact, the impressive economic performance of the Aquino administration has resulted in a
ratings upgrade of the Philippines to investment grade by Standard and Poors, followed by
Fitch, with understandable expectations that the third major rating agency Moody’s will likewise
follow. Of course, this was all before the pork barrel mess oinked loud and clear that senators,
congressmen, other government officials and NGOs may have indeed contributed to the
corruption of the pork barrel system even under the present administration.
The PSS is highly respected in the international statistical community as evidenced by,
among others, the keen interest of international organizations to include the Philippines as a
pilot area for many statistical developmental initiatives, the invitation for Filipino statisticians to
present papers sharing their experiences and expertise as well as chair sessions in international
meetings and conferences9, and the many offers Filipino statisticians receive to provide
international consultancy services. In addition, in the World Bank statistical capacity scoring
system10, the Philippines received the highest rating among 21 developing countries in East
Asia and the Pacific for the last five years. (see [5]).To the chagrin of many hard-working and
independent-minded members of the NSCB Technical Staff (TS) who are fully aware of the
7 Preamble of the Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics
8 These include the Declaration of Professional Ethics for Statisticians adopted by the Council of the
International Statistical Institute in 2010, the Code of Ethics by the Philippine Statistical Association , and Code of Conduct and Ethical Standards for Public Officials and Employees by the Civil Service Commission. 9 Filipino statisticians generally get funding from international organizations to participate in these
international meetings and conferences. 10
The overall score of countries is based on three dimensions: statistical methodology, source data, and periodicity and timeliness.
Page 5 of 25
strengths and weaknesses of the PSS and submitted their position paper against an obviously
flawed bill11 reorganizing the PSS (see [15]) , it was passed by the 15th Congress.
Amidst the current developments in the PSS, it is therefore critical to assess the extent
of adherence to the FPOS by the PSS, the threats, as well as the opportunities. The paper is
organized as follows. The next section presents the FPOS. The third section presents some
cases of possible violations and violators of the FPOS. The fourth section discusses the threats
in the application and implementation of the FPOS in the PSS while the last section offers
concluding remarks and recommendations on the way forward in safeguarding the integrity and
independence of NSSs, particularly, the PSS.
II. The Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics (FPOS)
As already mentioned, the FPOS was adopted by the UNSC in 1994, following an
international consultation process. At its 42nd session in 2011, the UNSC acknowledged that the
Principles were still as relevant as they had been in the past and that no revision of the 10
Principles was necessary, but recommended, that a Friends of the Chair12 (FOC) group revise
and update the preamble of the FPOS to take into account new developments since 1994. At its
44th session in 2013, the UNSC adopted the revised preamble and reaffirmed the FPOS. On 24
July 2013, the UN Economic and Social Council endorsed the FPOS marking the first time the
FPOS had received such high recognition at the global political level, and further recommended
that the UN General Assembly also endorse the Principles.
The FPOS consists of ten Principles on the generation, dissemination and
communication, and use of official statistics, including the conduct of statistical agencies, their
staff and the country’s Chief Statistician as well as the conduct of users of statistics . The ten
principles deal on the following (see [18]).:
11
The bill, with its many flaws, merges the National Statistical Coordination Board, the National Statistics Office, the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, and the Bureau of Labor and Employment Statistics into the Philippines Statistics Authority. Among the flaws are the severely weakened structure for statistical coordination, the notorious neglect for subnational statistical development, the loss of independence due to the attachment to NEDA not just for administrative purposes but “for purposes of policy coordination”, and the humongous powers of an unmanageably huge PSA “which shall be primarily responsible for all national censuses and surveys, sectoral statistics, consolidation of selected administrative recording systems and compilation of the national accounts” (underscoring ours). 12
The author was a member of the Friends of the Chair headed by Katherine K. Wallman, Chief Statistician at the Office of Management and Budget, United States of America.
Page 6 of 25
Principle 1: Relevance, Impartiality, and Equal Access
Official statistical agencies must generate relevant statistics and make
them available on an impartial basis to honour citizens’ entitlement to public
information.
Principle 2: Professional Standards and Ethics
To retain trust in official statistics, statistical agencies must decide
according to strictly professional considerations and professional ethics.
Principle 3: Accountability and Transparency
To facilitate correct interpretation of data, statistical agencies must present
information according to scientific standards on the sources, methods, and
procedures of the statistics.
Principle 4: Prevention of Misuse
Statistical agencies are entitled to comment on erroneous interpretation
and misuse of statistics.
Principle 5: Cost-Effectiveness
Data for statistical purposes may be drawn from all types of sources, be
they surveys or administrative records, and the choice should be with
regard to quality, timeliness, costs, and respondents’ burden.
Principle 6: Confidentiality
Individual data collected by statistical agencies for statistical compilation
must be strictly confidential and used exclusively for statistical purposes.
Principle 7: Legislation
The laws under which statistical systems operate must be made public.
Principle 8: National Coordination
Coordination among statistical agencies within countries is essential to
achieve consistency and efficiency in the statistical system.
Principle 9: International Standards
The consistency and efficiency of statistical systems is promoted by the
use of international concepts, classifications, and methods by statistical
agencies.
Principle 10: International Cooperation
International cooperation improves national statistical systems in all
countries.
Page 7 of 25
The UNSD, under the guidance of the FOC, conducted a second global review13 on
compliance with the FPOS. The Philippines, thru the NSCB participated in the survey. The
concluding remarks of the survey report are (see [4]):
1. On the basis of this self-assessment survey, it seems that a lot of improvement
has been made in the implementation of the FPOS over the past ten years, and
that the FPOS are remarkably well implemented.
2. Confidentiality (Principle 6) and Legislation (Principle 7) continue to be the best
implemented principles and, on the other hand, National Coordination (Principle
8) and Prevention of Misuse (Principle 4) continue to be the least implemented
principles.
3. Chief statisticians expect the implementation of the FPOS to even improve further
in the next ten years and suggest that advocacy at the political level, further
training for the management and all other staff working in official statistics, the
compilation of the best practices and technical assistance in general, will help
achieve this.
III. “VIOLATIONS” AND “VIOLATORS” OF THE FPOS?
A side event during the 42nd Session of the UNSC was the High Level Forum on Official
Statistics. One presentor was Pali Lehohla, Statistician-General of South Africa, and Chair of
the UNSC then. Some of the following came from his presentation (see [21]),:
1. Israel-Palestine: Confidentiality of Census records (Lehohla)
2003 UNSC Allegation by Palestine:
Israel in attacking Palestine took the Census records and used the individual records to pursue attacks on individual Palestinians.
Israel had therefore violated Principle 6.
Matter was tabled for discussion by the UNSC for 2005
Result Although the matter was set for hearing by the UNSC it
was never presented. The delegate of Palestine was denied a visa by the US authorities.
13
The first global review was conducted in 2003 with an overall response rate of 58% and reported to the UNSC at its 35
th Session in 2004. coinciding with the tenth anniversary of the adoption of the FPOS. The
second review had a response rate of 65%.
Page 8 of 25
The UNSC thus has not been enabled to execute its fiduciary duties and there remains no closure on this matter over which we could test first the validity of claims by Palestine and secondly how the UNSC could best serve the principles
Has the UNSC undermined the framework for managing its work and rendered the FPOS less useful?
2. Indonesia – Confidentiality of NSO data (Lehohla)
Statement: Records from NSO were used to identify poor households
and address poverty The Records are now used for monitoring and resolving
poverty
Dilemma The statistics office does not see how it exits the situation. Do benevolence and responsiveness constitute a
violation?
Is Indonesia violating Principle 6?
3. Launch by the UN Secretary General of the 2009 Global Impact and Vulnerability
Alert System(GIVAS) – not by the UNSC (Lehohla)
Position of UN Secretary General
As a policy maker, my needs are for information and data
that address problems and help me resolve them and the sooner the better
A number of these problems do not send a letter of notice that we are going to strike as problems.
Therefore be innovative, the world is not going to wait for you
Concern of the UNSC Chair
Is the UN Secretary General unduly interfering and hampering the work of the UNSC and therefore affecting the FPOS adversely?
4. Resignation by the Chief Statistician of Canada( Munir Sheikh)- over the long
form/short form in their 2011 Census of Population
Page 9 of 25
Issue: The Government of Prime Minister Harper, represented by
Industry Minister Tony Clement (Minister responsible for Statistics Canada) wanted to do away with the mandatory long form (administered to a fifth of the households) and instead send a voluntary form through a National Household Survey
Munir Sheikh resigned and was replaced by ‘Wayne Smith who went ahead with the plan of Government to do away with the mandatory long form. In June 2013, Smith admitted (see[9]) that the voluntary survey has had some problems: About half of Saskatchewan communities were left out of the first batch of data due to low response rates, while Canada's Filipino population appears to have been over-counted.
Question: Did Mr. Clement violate Principles 1 and 2?
5. Argentina – Change in the CPI Methodology
Issue: The IMF claims that the Argentine CPI had been
deliberately manipulated in 2007 by the government to
reduce its repayment obligations on CPI-indexed bonds
In 2010, Graciela Bevacqua, former head of the CPI unit in
INDEC14, told a Senate hearing that the Secretary of
Internal Trade had pressured her to doctor inflation data so
it would appear innocuously low; that she was “persecuted
and pressured everyday to change the numbers”, and
accused the Secretary of bullying her and other INDEC.
Argentina has created a statistical labyrinth (see [7]).
Did the Argentine government violate Principle 2?
Result In 2010, the Argentine government invited the IMF to help
INDEC to come up with a new national CPI.
14
NSO of Argentina
Page 10 of 25
In 2011, the American Statistical Association and the
International Statistical Institute (ISI) wrote to the UN
Special Rapporteur on the promotion and the protection of
the right to freedom of opinion and expression, basically
expressing their deep concern over the harassment and
persecution of statisticians by the Argentine government
(see [10]) .
In the High Level Forum on Official Statistics during the
2011 session of the UNSC, a group of participants from
Argentina walked out of the Forum when the Chief
Statistician of South Africa was presenting the case of
Argentina.
In February 2013, the IMF's executive board censured
Argentina for failing to meet its reporting standards for
economic data which lays the grounds for possible
sanctions against Argentina, including the loss of
borrowing rights.
Starting October 2013, INDEC will use a new CPI
methodology. (see [16])
6. Greece – Its Debt Crisis and Estimates of its Budget Deficit
Issue A former IMF statistician Andreas Georgiou was appointed to ELSTAT15 as Chief Statistician in 2010, a year after the start of Greece’s debt crisis to bring Greece's debt statistics in line with European norms. (see [17]) After he took over, the country’s 2009 budget deficit was revised upwards from 13.6 to 15 per cent of GDP.
In January 2013, felony charges were filed against Georgiou and two senior ELSTAT staffers for allegedly inflating the 2009 deficit. He could land in prison for life for issuing data that his detractors say led to higher bond prices and a drop in housing values.
15
NSO of Greece
Page 11 of 25
Response from the statistical community
On 13 February 2013, Eurostat16, , set out its concern that ‘political debates surrounding judicial action taken against the Head of the Greek statistical office (ELSTAT) and the calling into question of the validity of data which have repeatedly passed the stringent quality checks applied by Eurostat to ensure full compliance with European law seem to disregard commonly agreed European procedures.’ Earlier in December, Eurostat "…refutes all allegations that the deficit of 2009 was overestimated." The compilation of 2009 and 2010 data has been published "without any reservation ... in contrast with previous periods." (see [22])
The Royal Statistical Society’s (RSS) president17 wrote to
Karolos Papoulias, president of the Hellenic Republic, that
the RSS had no reason to doubt Eurostat’s confidence in
Georgiou’s work and the statistics produced and to urge
that ‘a scrupulously fair hearing’ be given to Georgiou (see
[22])
Now the question is whether the Greek political establishment will observe the European standards or insist on "Greek statistics." (see [11])
,
IV. THE FPOS & THE PSS: OPPORTUNITIES & THREATS
What about the PSS?
Certainly, the PSS has not been without its share of experiences that could have been
causes of concern regarding its adherence to the FPOS. Some18 of these are:
1. The PSS has been a pioneer of the Advance Release Calendar
(ARC)19 for official statistics (see [2]). The ARC is a one-year schedule
16
The statistical agency of the European Union with Walter Radermacher as Director General 17
The RSS is a well-recognized professional body of statisticians in the United Kingdom with John Pullinger as President 18
It would have been more informative if a more complete listing could be made but NCS space limitations ( not more than 5000 words) prevent this.
Page 12 of 25
published in advance20 to alert stakeholders regarding the release
date of official statistics. But even before the ARC was formally
adopted by the PSS, major statistical agencies were already releasing
some key statistics like the national accounts (NA) and the Consumer
Price Index (CPI) on a fairly regular basis. For instance, the NSCB TS
releases the quarterly national accounts two months after the
reference quarter except for the fourth quarter which is released one
month after. But sometime ago, a President wanted the NSCB to
release the NA earlier than scheduled. With the strong support of the
then NSCB Chair21, the NSCB wrote a memorandum to the President
explaining that while the NSCB could advance the release of the NA
as wished, it would affect the quality of the estimates primarily
because the data support would be weaker. To the credit of the
President, the implications were quickly understood and the schedule
was followed. Otherwise, a violation of Principle 2 would have been
committed!
2. The NSCB TS releases the NA thru a press conference to which the
public, mainly the media, is invited. The presscon is conducted in
accordance with the ARC, generally at ten o’clock in the morning with
the NSCB Secretary General (SG) making a Power Point presentation
of the estimates followed by a statement from the NEDA Director
General (DG). Sometime ago, a President, after being informed by the
NEDA the day before the presscon that growth of the Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) was high, wanted to be the one to announce the GDP
figures instead of the NSCB SG. On the eve of the presscon, the
NSCB TS exerted best efforts to convince the President that it would
not be sound statistical practice for a President to announce the GDP
estimates. With the help of a NEDA Deputy Director General, the
19
On 29 October 1997, the NSCB issued Board Resolution No. 10 Series of 1997 on the “Adoption and Implementation of the Government Statistics Accessibility Program (G-SAP)”. In line with this, NSCB Resolution No. 8 Series of 1999 on the “Adoption of the General Standards on Statistical Information Dissemination (GSSID)” was issued on 18 March 1999. A specific standard in the GSSID provides for the dissemination of an ARC by “all agencies engaged in the generation of statistical information”. It covered statistics expected to be released in 2001 and onwards 20
At least one quarter in advance via the agency website and through printed public announcements or press releases.
Page 13 of 25
President settled for a phone patch that gave the President the
opportunity to speak at the beginning of the conference but with the
GDP estimates presented by the NSCB SG. Otherwise, a violation of
Principle 2 would have been committed!
3. Sometime ago, the PSS22 came up with flash indicators to measure
the impact of global crises in the Philippines. The indicators which
were posted on the NSCB website included labor turnover rates/
number of displaced workers. A Cabinet Secretary “proposed” that the
web-posting of data on job displacements due to the global crisis be
discontinued “as this may no longer be relevant as the situation has
trickled down to a few establishments”. The NSCB Executive Board
decided:
“there should be transparency regarding the release of official data following the principles of official statistics”;
“that the data may be used for political propaganda should not be sufficient reason for preventing its release”;
“there is a need to generate information on these indicators to create a clear picture of the employment situation”;
“posting on the NSCB website should be continued for transparency and better appreciation of the impact of the global crisis”;
“the Board should keep its integrity by not allowing itself to be pressured by political influences”.
Otherwise there would have been a violation of Principles 1 and 2!
4. The StatDev is a product of the NSCB TS that monitors the progress
of the achievement of the country’s development goals set forth in the
national development agenda. It is meant to serve as an input in the
State of the Nation Address (SONA) of the President and its release is
included in the NSCB ARC. Sometime ago, a Cabinet Secretary
wanted the NSCB TS to “freeze” the release of the StatDev which had
already been released earlier. Thinking that what was meant was to
pull out the StatDev from the NSCB website, the NSCB SG said no!
Otherwise, a violation of Principle 2 would have been committed!
21
By virtue of Executive Order No. 121 signed by President Corazon C. Aquino, the Secretary of Socio Economic Planning and NEDA Director General sits as Chair of the NSCB, with a DBM Undersecretary as Vice-Chair.
Page 14 of 25
5. Sometime ago, after the release of the LEI23, a NEDA Director General called the NSCB “suggesting” that the NSCB consider stopping the release of the LEI, asking “who are its users anyway?” The NSCB SG said no! Otherwise there would have been a violation of Principles 1 and 2!
6. In general, estimates of key indicators like the NA and the CPI are sent
to the NSCB Chair a day before they are released to the public.
Sometime ago, a Cabinet Secretary wanted an advance copy of the
CPI as well. The NSO Administrator said no! Otherwise, a violation of
Principle 1 would have been committed!
7. The NSO generally releases foreign trade statistics24 in both dollar and
peso terms. Sometime ago, due to foreign exchange fluctuations,
estimates in peso terms showed growth but a decline in dollar terms.
A Cabinet Secretary wanted the NSO to release only the peso
estimates. Again, the NSO Administrator said no! Otherwise, a
violation of Principle 2 would have been committed!
8. The NSO has received many requests in the past, both from
government and the private sector, for information at the
establishment/household level. The NSO Administrator said no!
Otherwise a violation of Principle 6 would have been committed!
In addition, the following are cited as practices of the PSS that adhere to the FPOS.
1. One statistical practice that has long been established in the PSS is
the production of metada for the statistics it generates, as one of the
standards of the GSSID. This is in adherence to Principle 3.
2. Members of the media and other users of statistics do not always
have a correct appreciation of how the statistics are generated. As a
result, there would be erroneous reporting of the statistics. The NSCB
22
An interagency Task Force chaired by the NEDA was created by the NSCB for the purpose. 23
Leading Economic Indicators 24
Statistics on exports and imports
Page 15 of 25
TS issues the necessary clarification via the For The Record section (
see [14]) on its website. This is in adherence to Principle 4.
3. The PSS agencies adopt international statistical standards, concepts,
and definitions25 but adapt them to local conditions to enhance the
comparability and consistency of statistics they generate. This is in
adherence to Principle 9.
4. The PSS has been engaged in many activities in collaboration and
cooperation with international organizations and the NSS of other
countries in support of statistical development. This includes hosting
study visits and conducting training of statisticians from other
countries, hosting international conferences, serving as pilot country
for international statistical initiatives, and serving as chairs/members
of international committees on statistics. This is in adherence to
Principle 10.
Obviously, the PSS has been challenged/threatened with respect to adherence to the
FPOS. But these challenges have also given opportunities for the PSS officials and employees
to display their integrity, independence, and courage to confront conscious or unconscious
attempts to violate the FPOS with utmost professionalism and high standards of public service.
On the other hand, there have also been a number of issues, concerns, and questions
that can be raised.
1. A major change in the PSS introduced by the bill passed by Congress is the
merger of the NSCB and the NSO, meaning that data production and
statistical coordination are now functions of just one organization. The
provisions of the bill obviously weaken statistical coordination in the PSS. The
bill has eliminated the one distinctive advantage of the PSS over other NSSs.
It has destroyed the one feature of the PSS for which it has received
worldwide recognition as one of the most developed NSSs among developing
25
In collaboration with other PSS agencies, the NSCB TS has produced several classification systems which have been approved by the NSCB Executive Board for adoption by PSS agencies and some of which are the following: Philippine Standard Industrial Classification (PSIC), Philippine Standard Occupational Classification (PSOC), Philippine Standard Commodity Classification (PSCC), Philippine
Page 16 of 25
countries. In many countries26 where statistical coordination is lodged with
their NSO, statistical coordination is practically non-existent. The result is the
generally poor quality of sectoral and subnational statistics produced by the
line departments/ministries and local government units of the NSS. In passing
the bill, did Congress violate or at least exhibit a lack of appreciation and
understanding of Principle 8? It may be recalled that in the UN survey on
adherence to the FPOS, Principle 8 is one of the two principles least
implemented by countries.
2. One of the statistical coordination mechanisms established in the PSS is the
System of Designated Statistics (SDS) under Executive Order No. 35227 (see
[1]). The SDS designates the conduct of specific statistical
activities/compilation of statistics and identifies the implementing agency,
frequency, geographic disaggregation and time lag in the release of data.
Section 6 of EO 352 states that “the amounts necessary to carry out the
provisions of this EO shall be provided for in the General Appropriations Act”.
In spite of this, the DBM and Congress have not always provided the budget
needed to conduct a number of the designated statistics28. The DBM has also
not been providing sufficient budget to the NSCB and other PSS agencies so
that they can hire the necessary manpower to generate these designated
statistics. The question is, is this not a violation of Principle 1 under which
“Official statistical agencies must generate relevant statistics and make them
available on an impartial basis to honour citizens’ entitlement to public
information”? What a pity that so much money apparently has been wasted
on the pork barrel of Senators and Congressmen sacrificing resources that
should have gone to support statistics.
3. The formulation of the Philippine Statistical Development Program (PSDP)29
is an interagency effort of the PSS. It is spearheaded by the NSCB TS under
Central Product Classification (PCPC), and Philippine Classification of Individual Consumption by Object of Purpose(PCOICOP), 26
This was clearly the case in the nine countries visited by the author when he served as a Consultant for UNIFEM on the improvement of gender statistics in the Asia Pacific region. 27
Signed by President Fidel V. Ramos on 01 July 1996. 28
Examples of designated statistical activities that have not been provided with the required budget in the past are the Census of Agriculture and Fisheries, the mid decade Census of Population, and the National Nutrition Survey, among others. 29
The PSDP is the blueprint of statistical activities to be undertaken in the medium term and serves the information requirements of the national development agenda (Philippine Development Plan and its
Page 17 of 25
the guidance of a Steering Committee (SC) chaired by the NSCB SG. One
NEDA DG, despite being reminded that the SC had been traditionally chaired
by the NSCB SG, wanted to preside a meeting of the Steering Committee30
so that the DG could be “updated” on the PSDP. After the first meeting,
however, the DG no longer attended the succeeding meetings of the SC. The
question is, was this an attempt of the NEDA DG to influence the statistical
activities that will be undertaken by the PSS in the medium term, thereby
violating Principle 2?
4. The methodology for official poverty statistics is developed by the NSCB
Technical Committee on Poverty Statistics (TC PovStat)31. The TC PovStat
endorses the methodology to the NSCB Executive Board for approval before
it is used to generate official poverty statistics. Sometime ago, a methodology
was developed by the TC Povstat which was approved by the Board, with a
minor change based on the suggestion of a NEDA DG. After approval, the
NEDA DG asked the TC Povstat to reconvene and discuss certain aspects
of the methodology. The methodology was discussed again in the next Board
meeting as Business Arising, with the TC Povstat maintaining its position on
the earlier approved methodology. During the Board meeting, the NEDA DG
again asked the TC Povstat to reconvene and discuss the same aspects of
the methodology earlier raised. The TC Povstat maintained its
recommendation and this was approved by the Board through a referendum.
The question is, was this an attempt of a NEDA DG to influence the TC
PovStat to recommend a methodology that is not the most appropriate
according to its professional judgment, in violation of Principle 2?
5. The NSCB TS tries to release poverty statistics in accordance with the ARC.
Sometime ago, the TCPovstat came up with a schedule where poverty
statistics were to be released before the SONA, partly in response to a
request from NEDA. However, in an NSCB Executive Board meeting, a
NEDA DG “suggested” “to release the poverty estimates in August rather
than before the SONA because such release might be politicized”. Before the
predecessors). It is now on its 8th version and has been formulated and implemented by the PSS long
before the National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (NSDS) was initiated by PARIS21 (Partnership in Statistics for Development in the 21
st Century)
30 NEDA sits as Vice Chair of the Steering Committee.
31 It is currently chaired by Dr. Celia M.Reyes of the Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
Page 18 of 25
TC Povstat could discuss the “suggestion”, it was informed that the original
schedule could not be followed because the NSO failed to finish the
processing of the FIES data. By default, the poverty statistics would have to
be released after the SONA. But is this not a direct interference by NEDA on
matters that should be left for the statisticians and the NSCB Technical
Committees to decide, and therefore a violation of Principle 2? In this regard,
it is relevant to cite that the UN Handbook of Statistical Organization protects
the Chief Statistician from such interference when it says: “Refusal to delay
the presentation of a key result should never be a reason to demand the
resignation of the Chief Statistician”! (see[3])
6. In recent years, the government set up two registries which may be
overlapping with one another: the NHTSPR32 of the DSWD and the registry
of farmers, fisherfolk, and DAR beneficiaries33 of the DBM.
Initially, the DSWD wanted and invited the statistical offices to collect the data
for the NHTSPR database. The NSCB TS informed the DSWD that since
household level data were going to be divulged under the NHTSPR, it would
be inappropriate for the statistical offices to be involved in the data collection.
The DSWD decided to do the data collection itself.
In the case of the RSBSA, “the NSO conducted the surveys for the first phase
of the project with 20 pilot provinces and registered 2,116,313 farmers, farm
laborers and fisher folk in the targeted provinces” (see [6]). However,
household-level data are being disseminated by the DBM upon request. Is
this not a violation of Principle 6?
Recently, there were efforts to unify the registries and other databases
including the CBMS under the Unified Data Collection System (UDCS)34
initiated by the DBM. The intention may be noble but some statisticians have
raised questions35 about the plan; NEDA does not find it cost effective; and
unification has not happened. The question is, is it appropriate for the DBM to
32
National Household Targeting System for Poverty Reduction 33
The Registry System for Basic Sectors in Agriculture (RSBSA). It is an inter-agency effort among the DBM, NSO, DA, DAR, DILG and NAPC. 34
The UDCS agencies are DBM, NEDA, NAPC, NSO, DILG, NSCB, and CBMS Network but excluding DSWD
Page 19 of 25
spearhead such an initiative? Shouldn’t it focus its energy more on activities
that will prevent the pork barrel scam from ever happening again, saving
precious resources that could have gone to ensuring that the benefits of
economic growth trickle down to the poor? Also, would it not serve
stakeholders of statistics better if the NSO devoted its time more towards a
more timely processing of the FIES so that poverty statistics could be
released in a more timely manner rather than getting involved in these
initiatives?
7. Sometime ago, during the budget deliberation for NEDA and its attached
agencies, a senator was persistently asking about the NSO certification on
the population count for a certain area, obviously wanting the count to be
higher for purposes of congressional districting. Was this an attempt to
influence NSO into changing its estimate, thereby violating Principle 2,
otherwise its budget could be cut?
Other questions that can be raised are the following:
1. Sometime ago, the Office of the President “suggested” that the presscon for
the NA be held in Malacanang. The NSCB TS followed the “suggestion” but
this could lead to public perception that the estimates of the accounts are
influenced by Malacanang. Could this have been a violation of Principle 2?
2. A mid-decade census (PopCen) was supposed to have been conducted36 in
2005. However, the required budget was not appropriated for 2005; neither
was it appropriated for 2006. The government finally provided funds for 2007.
But a CPH37 was scheduled to be conducted in 2010, just three years after the
2007 PopCen. The question is, should a mid decade PopCen still be
conducted in 2007? The matter was taken up by the NSCB Executive Board
which decided in the affirmative38 despite the concern raised by the NSCB TS
about the wisdom of conducting two censuses of population within three years
of each other. Could this have been a violation of Principle 2? Or could the
35
During the NSCB/UNICEF Forum on Local-Level Statistics on Children held on 31 May 2013 36
The conduct of a mid decade Census of Population was first approved for 1995 under NSCB Board Resolution No. 6 Series of 1993, dated 30 May 1993. 37
Census of Population and Housing whose conduct is in accordance with Batas Pambansa Blg. 72 approved on 11 June 1980
Page 20 of 25
funds intended for the 2007 PopCen have been more wisely spent for other
statistical activities?
V. CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
The statistical products and services, as well as the public trust in the PSS have
improved over the years. And there is no question that the PSS efforts to adhere to the FPOS
are commendable. But there are also areas for concern that should challenge the professional
statisticians in the country to strengthen their resolve to ensure that the PSS will continue to be
recognized by the international statistical community as one of the best NSS, at least among
developing countries. Toward this end, the following recommendations are made:
1. Official statisticians must be aware that the independence, objectivity, integrity and
professionalism in the PSS must not only happen – they must be perceived to happen. The
credibility of and public trust on the PSS are necessary to convince stakeholders to support
statistics.
2. The Chief Statistician must learn to develop the ability to deal with politics and politicians but
must remain apolitical.
3. Official statisticians must recognize that the media are a powerful partner for statistical
advocacy; linkages with them must continue to be enriched. The media can help
significantly towards convergence of public perception and reality in the generation of official
statistics.
4. Existing good/best statistical practices such as the interagency and international
collaboration, the ARC, the For the Record section of the NSCB website, and the generation
of metadata and microdata (public use files) among others, must continue to be
implemented and further enhanced. They strengthen adherence to the FPOS and enhance
the credibility of the PSS.
5. Statistical offices must proactively respond to evolving user needs to enhance their
relevance.
6. The Philippine Statistical Development Program must be a dynamic and flexible blueprint of
statistical activities to be conducted in the medium term to serve the country’s development
agenda but its formulation must be the sole responsibility of the statisticians..
38
Through NSCB Resolution No. 6 Series of 2007, dated 26 April 2007.
Page 21 of 25
7. Statistical curricula should require courses on official statistics. Many graduates of statistics
work in government and they must be made aware of the responsibilities of official
statisticians.
8. Some agencies of government that seem to be getting obsessed with getting involved in
statistical/registry initiatives should leave these activities to agencies with the appropriate
mandate.
9. The statistical community should take a collective stand on the Freedom of Information Act
and on other relevant concerns that will come up in the future. Intelligent engagement in
public debate on very important issues can only enhance public appreciation for statistics.
10. Congress and those who help craft statistical laws must have a genuine and selfless desire
to improve the PSS. Merger of the NSO, NSCB, BAS, and BLES is definitely not the way to
go. It will not solve the problems now faced by these organizations; it may even make them
worse. In this regard, an autonomous and independent statistical commission not attached
to NEDA will be a much better alternative than the Philippine Statistical Authority envisioned
in the bill approved by Congress.
11. The government thru DBM/Congress should upgrade the salaries of official statisticians.
12. Demand for statistics has risen exponentially since the onset of the Third Millennium. Users
of statistics have become much more sophisticated and require innovative statistical
products and services. To be able to address these concerns, government as well as the
private sector must develop a genuine political will to invest on statistics, invest on
statisticians, and invest on statistical offices.
Page 22 of 25
ACRONYMS
ARC Advance Release Calendar BAS Bureau of Agricultural Statistics BLES Bureau of Labor and Employment Statistics BSP Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas CPI Consumer Price Index DBM Department of Budget and Management DENR Department of Environment and Natural Resources DepEd Department of Education DG Director General DOH Department of Health DOT Department of Tourism DSWD Department of Social Welfare and Development FPOS Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics GDP Gross Domestic Product IMF International Monetary Fund ISI International Statistical Institute LEI Leading Economic Indicators NA National Accounts NCS National Convention on Statistics NEDA National Economic and Development Authority NHTSPR National Household Targeting System for Poverty Reduction NSCB National Statistical Coordination Board NSO National Statistics Office NSS National Statistical System PSDP Philippine Statistical Development Program PSS Philippine Statistical System RSS Royal Statistical Society RSBSA Registry System for the Basic Sectors in Agriculture SC Steering Committee SDS System of Designated Statistics SG Secretary General SONA State of the Nation Address TC Povstat
Technical Committee on Poverty Statistics
TS Technical Staff UN United Nations UNSC United Nations Statistical Commission UNSD United Nations Statistics Division
Page 23 of 25
REFERENCES
[1] Executive Order No. 352
[2] NSCB, “Guidelines on the Dissemination of Advance Release Calendar”.
[3] United Nations Statistics Division. Handbook of Statistical Organization, Third Edition. Series in Methods, Series F No. 88. 2003
[4] United Nations Statistics Division. Implementation of the Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics, Background document prepared for the 44th Session of the UNSC, 2013
[5] http://bbsc.worldbank.org/bbsc/SearchEngine?parameter=searchByCountry [6] http://www.dbm.gov.ph/?p=5229 [7] http://www.economist.com/node/21548229 [8] http://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2013/05/08/the-next-billionaire-a-
statistician-who-changed-medicine/ [9] http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/06/25/wayne-smith-statscan-household-
survey_n_3494527.html [10] http://www.isi-web.org/recent-pages/43-about/about/445-methodological-concerns-
argentine-cpi [11] http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/01/31/137470/blaming-the-messenger-
greeces.html#.UhxgAH9ELsc [12] The McKinsey Quarterly -
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/innovation/hal_varian_on_how_the_web_challenges_managers
[13] University of California in Berkeley; http://newscenter.berkeley.edu/2013/04/16/from-geeky-to-cool-statistics-is-berkeleys-fastest-growing-major/
[14] http://www.nscb.gov.ph [15] http://www.nscb.gov.ph/headlines/StatsSpeak/2008/111008_rav_statcoordination.as
p
[16] The Wall Street Journal, Asia Edition http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130327-707122.html
[17] www.spiegel.de/international/europe/chief-greek-statist... [18] http://unstats.un.org/unsd/dnss/gp/FP-New-E.pdf [19] http://unstats.un.org/unsd/methods/statorg/default.htm [20] UN Statistical Commission: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/statcom/commission.htm [21] http://unstats.un.org/unsd/statcom/statcom_2011/Seminars/High_level_forum/default.
html [22] http://www.rssenews.org.uk/2013/02/rss-president-urges-scrupulously-fair-hearing-
for-greeces-chief-statistician-facing-felony-charges/