IMPROVING LUCF GHG IMPROVING LUCF GHG INVENTORY and the INVENTORY and the FAO FRA: FAO FRA: the Philippine Case the Philippine Case

Rodel D. LascoRodel D. LascoEnvironmental Forestry ProgrammeEnvironmental Forestry ProgrammeUniversity of the PhilippinesUniversity of the Philippines

Introduction

evolution of GHG inventory in the LUCF sector in the Philippines

research efforts in improving GHG inventory in LUCF

The role of the FAO FRA project

I. Changes in forest and woody biomass

2 THE IPCC GUIDELINES FOR LUCF

DATA NEEDS:•area of forests•annual growth rate•carbon fraction of dry matter•commercial harvest•fuelwood use •other wood used

II. Forests and grassland conversion

Data Needs•area converted annually•biomass before and after conversion•fraction of biomass burned on site•fraction of biomass oxidized on site•carbon fraction of biomass•fraction left to decay

III. CO2 emissions and uptake by soils

Data Needs:•Soil carbon•Land area•Base factor •Tillage factor•Input factors•Annual C loss rate•Total annual lime

Relationship among IPCC module categories

Worksheet 5-2

Worksheet 5-3

Worksheet 5-4

Worksheet 5-5

Worksheet 5-6

3 EVOLUTION OF GHG INVENTORY IN THE PHILIPPINE LUCF SECTOR

Source

1990 inventory(1997 US Country

Studies)1990 inventory(1998 ALGAS)

1994 inventory(1999 Philippine

Nat. Comm.)

Change in Forests and biomass stocks -48654 2622 -68323

Forest and grassland conversion 120738 80069 68197

Abandonment of managed lands -1331 -1331 Not determined

Net Emissions 70,753 81,360 -126

Total Philippine emissions 128,620 164,103 100,738

% of total emissions 55.01 49.58 -0.13

In Gg CO2 equivalent

Table 4 Annual aboveground biomass uptake used in the Philippine national GHG inventory (from Francisco, 1997)

Land Type Annual Biomass Increment (Mg/ha/yr)

Source/Comment

Dipterocarp Old growth Residual

 0

10

 IPCC (1996)

Pine Close Open

 11.55.8

 IPCC (1996)Half of closed pine forest

Submarginal 3.2 Expert’s judgment

Mossy 1.0 Expert’s judgment

Mangrove 3.0 Expert’s judgment

Brushland 1.0 Expert’s judgment

Forest plantations < 25 years old 26-30 years old 31-40 years old

 432

 Expert’s judgmentExpert’s judgmentExpert’s judgment

Non-forest Trees Coconut Fruit trees Rubber Coffee/cacao

 3242

 Expert’s judgmentExpert’s judgmentExpert’s judgmentExpert’s judgment

Main sources of key activity data for the LUCF sector

GHG Inventory Source of data

1990 Inventory (US countries Studies program)

Land area: FMB statisticsBiomass/Carbon stocks/change: Expert’s judgment; literature

1990 Inventory(ALGAS)

Land area: FMB statisticsBiomass/Carbon stocks/change: Expert’s judgment; literature

1994 Inventory(1999 Philippines’ National Communication)

Land area: FMB statisticsBiomass/carbon stocks/change: Philippine data from Lasco and Pulhin (2000a)

4 Research Efforts to Improve GHG Inventory

LUCF research intensified in the last few years

Through Environmental Forestry Programme

189 (48%)

2.3 (0.6%)

1.2 (0.3%)4.8 (1.2%)

SOC= 191 (49%)Roots = 4.3 (1.1%)

Fig. 1 Carbon density (t/ha) of natural forests in Leyte, Philippines

Total C density= 393 t/ha

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

tC/ha

OGF SGF Gmelina (6yr) Agroforestry Grassland

Fig. Carbon density of various land cover in the project site

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

tC/ha/yr

OGF SGF Gmelina Eucalyptus Acacia Mahogany Dipterocarp Agroforestry Grassland

Fig. Carbon MAI of various land cover in project site

Table 6 Comparison of results between the 1994 inventory and latest inventory

 Source

 Mtons CO2 or CO2 equivalent

 

1994 Inventory(Philippine NC,

1999)

1997-98 Inventory(Lasco 2001)

 Biomass growth

 -111

 -222

Harvests 42 31

On site and off site burning

36 25

Decay 33 23

 Net Absorption

 <1 (0.126)

 -142

FAO FRA in the Philippines Objective: to develop capacities of forest

institutions to design, plan, implement forest inventory projects and manage information

Using systematic inventory sampling design 82 1 x 1km field observation sites (FOS) Eventually: 395 FOS nationwide four 20 x 250m plots per FOS Bio-physical and socio-economic variables will be

collected Tree diameter, height; biodiversity; soil samples

Potential Synergy with GHG Inventory

FRA could provide key activity data: area of forest types

With minimal cost: above-ground and below ground carbon can be measured

STEP 1

A B C D E

Area of Forest/Biomass

Stocks(Mha)

Annual Growth Rate(t dm/ha/yr)

Annual Biomass

Increment[x 1 yr]

(Mt dm)

Carbon Fraction of Dry Matter

Total Carbon Uptake

Increment(kt C)

Forest          

Dipterocarp    C = A x B

 E = C x D x

1000

Old Growth 0.805 2.10 1.69 0.50 845

Residual 2.730 6.50 17.75 0.45 7,932

Pine 0.228 5.80 1.32 0.45 591

Submarginal 0.475 3.20 1.52 0.45 679

Mossy 1.040 1.00 1.04 0.45 465

Mangrove 0.112 3.00 0.34 0.45 150

Tree Plantation 0.518 12.00 6.22 0.43 2,680

Upland farms 14.120 3.00 42.36 0.45 19,062

Brushland 2.232 3.20 7.14 0.45 3,214

Grassland 2.447 0.00 0.00 0.4 0

SUBTOTAL 35,619

FRA data

FRA: Potential CDM Application

The Philippines has received proposals for LUCF projects

FRA could provide data on: Suitable areas Potential carbon benefits

An Example: Mitigation Potential OGF Dipterocarp forests will be protected for biodiversity Rehabilitate open grassland areas and degraded brushland

areas by reforestation/afforestation and natural regeneration Main determinant for additional areas under mitigation is the

demand for wood products

High Scenario correspond on 25-year Master Plan aggressive tree planting program (100-150,000 ha/yr)

Low Scenario 50% of high scenario

Annual Rate of Area Development High Scenario Low Scenario Year 2000-2009 Short rotation plantation 40,000 20,000 Long rotation plantation 40,000 20,000 Forest regeneration 10,000 5,000 Forest protection Bio-energy 10,000 5,000 Year 2010-2019 Short rotation plantation 45,000 22,500 Long rotation plantation 45,000 22,500 Forest regeneration 20,000 10,000 Forest protection Bio-energy 15,000 7,500 Year 2020-2030 Short rotation plantation 55,000 27,500 Long rotation plantation 55,000 27,500 Forest regeneration 25,000 12,500 Forest protection Bio-energy 15,000 7,500

HS2008 LS

HS2012 LS

Short rotation

Long rotation

Regeneration

Forest conservation

Bioenergy

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Year/Scenario

Option

CARBON STOCKS ('000 t)

Short rotation

Long rotation

Regeneration

Forest conservation

Bioenergy

Concluding Remarks Large uncertainty remains on LUCF GHG

inventory Much progress has been done in the last few

years but much remains to be done The FAO FRA presents a great opportunity to

improve GHG inventory dramatically a nationwide systematic sampling design Carbon measurements can be incorporated Results may also be useful for CDM

Time

Pre

cisi

on

/Co

vera

ge

1997: Default values

1998-1999:Small plots

2000-2002:Systematic plots

2002-???FAO FRA

“People always talk about the weather,but nobody actually does anythingabout it.”

Mark Twain

Thank you!!!