FUTURECLIMATEFORAFRICA

IMPROVING CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR DECISION-MAKINGMALAWI & TANZANIA

THE PROJECT “UNCERTAINTY REDUCTION IN MODELS FOR UNDERSTANDING DEVELOPMENT APPLICATIONS” IS ALSO KNOWN AS UMFULA (“RIVER” IN ZULU). IT WILL IMPROVE CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR DECISION-MAKING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AFRICA.

The project is generating new insights and more reliable information about climate processes and extreme weather events in central and southern Africa – and their impacts on water and agriculture. These insights will support the more effective use of climate information in national and local decision-making. We hope to support planning decisions that will make development more resilient in a changing climate.

How UMFULA will make climate information more useful for planners in AfricaHigher quality, more useful information about the future climate and its impacts Global climate models cannot currently capture, in full, the complex drivers of central and southern Africa’s climate. To gain a better understanding of how the climate could evolve in the future, UMFULA is investigating which models most effectively simulate the regional climate. Our goal is to have a clearer description of how the climate will change over the next 5–40 years, and how these changes will vary from region to region. Our results will improve the understanding of potential changes in water availability, which is relevant for planning investments in water infrastructure and agriculture.

Making climate information more accessible and tailored for plannersA changing climate in the next few decades will affect some of the infrastructure and development programmes that are being designed and financed today. However, for now, climate information is seldom used in planning processes. UMFULA aims to address this gap. With an understanding of which decisions are made, by whom, and how, the project team will use new climate information to target and inform planning processes.

Supporting robust decisions for an uncertain future The climate is one aspect of a country’s future which is uncertain: other examples of future uncertainties include aspects of international trade and commodity prices,

AimsThe project will support planning around resource use, infrastructure investment and cross-sectoral growth priorities. It will help identify robust and resilient options for adapting to climate change and to other, non-climate pressures, such as demographic change.

Future Climate for Africa

and political cycles. Planners need to make decisions about their country’s future in the face of such uncertainties, and with imperfect information. At a country or regional level, climate scientists may foresee future trends in rainfall, temperatures and related impacts, such as sea level rise, droughts and flooding. However, even with information on trends, scientists cannot predict exactly when, where and how changes in the climate will happen. As part of the UMFULA project, researchers and decision-makers will partner in a collaborative dialogue to identify critical vulnerabilities and thresholds where climate change may pose unacceptable risks to planned development activities. The team will support a range of actors involved in development decisions to evaluate future climate scenarios and identify various adaptation options. Decision-makers can

use this information to consider which options are most appropriate to help them fulfil their medium to long term planning goals.

Applying climate information in practice

Our two real-life examples will trial the use of new climate information offer contrasting locations and development priorities:

Rufiji river basin, TanzaniaThe Rufiji produces half of Tanzania’s river flow, supplying water for 4.5 million people, water for irrigation and livestock and generating roughly 80% of the country’s hydropower. Many different stakeholders across multiple sectors are affected by planning and decisions about the industrial and agricultural investment required to meet the 2025 Development Vision aims.

District level planning in the Lower Shire river basin, MalawiWater availability is critical in southern Malawi. Pressures on water resources are projected to increase as a result of climate change, combined with population growth and development. The government’s commitment to decentralisation means that increasing numbers of decisions are taken at a district level. UMFULA is working to integrate information about the future climate into water and agricultural planning, focusing in the districts of Chikwawa, Nsanje and Thyolo.

Future Climate for Africa

UMFULA

TANZANIA

MALAWI

How UMFULA will work

Future Climate for Africa

UMFULA project team

A global consortium of institutions specialising in cutting edge climate science, impacts modelling, and integrating climate information into decision-making to enable adaptation to climate change

• Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment (London School of Economics and Political Science) – UK

• Kulima Integrated Development Solutions – South Africa

• University of Oxford – UK• University of Cape Town – South Africa• Sokoine University of Agriculture – Tanzania• Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural

Resources – Malawi• University of Leeds – UK• Council for Scientific and Industrial Research

– South Africa• University of Manchester – UK• University of KwaZulu – Natal – South Africa• University of Sussex – UK• University of Dar es Salaam – Tanzania• University of Yaoundé – Cameroon• Tanzanian Meteorological Agency• Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology

For further information please contact:

Ms Estelle Rouhaud, project manager (e.rouhaud@lse.ac.uk) or Professor Declan Conway, principal investigator (d.conway@lse.ac.uk)

Dr David Mkwambisi (in Malawi) (ddmkwambisi@gmail.com or +265 885 313460)

Professor Japhet Kashaigili (in Tanzania) (jkashaigili@gmail.com or +255 754 207117)

or visit http://futureclimateafrica.org/umfula/

Generating improved decision-relevant climate and impact information

Developing a transferable framework for low-regrets

decisions and planning

Integrated planning in the Rufiji

Local-level decision making in the Shire River basin

Wider application of the experience from central and southern Africa

CLIMATE SERVICESDecision-makers sharing specific needs for climate information and climate scientists providing decision-relevant information

This document is an output from a project funded by the UK Department for International Development (DFID) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) for the benefit of developing countries and the advance of scientific research. However, the views expressed and information contained in it are not necessarily those of, or endorsed by DFID or NERC, which can accept no responsibility for such views or information or for any reliance placed on them. This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, the Climate and Development Knowledge Network’s members, the UK Department for International Development (‘DFID’), the Natural Environment Research Council (‘NERC’), their advisors and the authors and distributors of this publication do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. Copyright © 2015, Climate and Development Knowledge Network. All rights reserved. Cover image © Tom Pilston, The Rufiji River – Tanzania, Selous.