implications of co2 in gdp

7/27/2019 Implications of CO2 in GDP

1/37

NAS@NJHYNFKZ FB JF? NK MIS,

@FKM!_UK _E@HYNFKZGNS HKI

JHUZH@NY^ YEZY NK SHKE@ IHYH

Luhk Jhan`f Ihz

linhzgClhvernhkh+eiu+jf

hki

Jhth`nkh Rn``h`fofs

jhthvn``h`fofs>=Cgftahn`+jfa

Lu`y, 7tg ?38:

Hostrhjt

]e ghve iejniei tf exp`fre tge jhush`nty hafkm JF? eanssnfk hki

nkjfae usnkm h phke` tnae sernes wntg >2 jfuktrnes hki h tnae pernfi

èkmtg brfa 8>23 tf ?33>+ Exp`njnt`y tgns phper ns mfnkm tf thde nktf

hjjfukt tge re`htnfk fb jhush`nty oetweek per jhpnth MIS hki per jhpnth

JF? eanssnfks+ Ygere ghs oeek h onm insjussnfk nk tgns tfpnj fk tge

rhtnjhtnfk fb tge Dyftf Srftfjf` wgnjg bfjusei fk wgetger restrnjtnkm

eanssnfks ns `nde`y tf naphnr ejfkfanj mrfwtg espejnh``y bfr sfae jfuktrnes+

Ygere ns h`sf napfrthkt tf thde nktf hjjfukt ftger jfuktrnes tght hre kftphrt fb tgns prftfjf` oejhuse tgey hre `fw hki aeinua nkjfae jfuktrnes

wgere tge re`htnfk fb tge ejfkfanj mrfwtg wntg JF? eanssnfk sgfuì oe

testei+ Ygek, tge purpfse fb tgns phper ns tf mnve hk ejfkfaetrnj fvervnew

ohsei fk tge re`htnfk fb jhush`nty hafkm nkjfae hki JF? eanssnfk nk 82

jfuktry!mrfups nk tge `fkm tera, usnkm hk extekiei versnfk fb phke` tnae

sernes aetgfis+ ]e bfuki tght tgere ns h on!inrejtnfkh` jhush`nty hafkm

nkjfae hki jhrofk eanssnfks nk h`` seèjtei suomrfups hki napfrthkt

jfksnierhtnfks hofut tge snmk bfr jfuktrnes wntg `fw nkjfae hs we`` hs

Haernjh hki upper aniiè nkjfae jfuktrnes+

Deywfris< JF? eanssnfks4 MIS4 Errfr Jfrrejtnfk Aetgfi4 Shke ihth4 Ukntrfft4 Jfnktemrhtnfk4 @fkm!ruk effiejts4 Ekvnrfkaekt+

LE@ j`hssnjhtnfk< F994 J::4 X?5+

8


2/37

8 Nktrfiujtnfk

Yge prfpfse fb tgns phper ns tf ukiersthki tge khture fb jhush`nty nk tge `fkm!rukre`htnfksgnp oetweek JF? eanssnfks hki ejfkfanj mrfwtg+

Zfae pefpè ahy tgnkd tght nk tge `fkm tera, tge MIS effiejts nk JF?eanssnfks ns afre jèhr tghk tge ftger why hrfuki iue tf tge iejnsnfks thdekoy nkiustrnh`s, gfusegfìs hki tge sfjnety+ Out nk tge ftger ghki, we hre h`sfnkterestei nk tge inrejtnfk fb jhush`nty wgere JF? eanssnfks jhuses afre fr èssejfkfanj mrfwtg, tge snmk fb tgns re`htnfksgnp ns ftger napfrthkt nssue tf oetrehtei nk tgns phper4 tgere jfuì exnst tge pfssnon`nty tf met gnmger ève`s fbejfkfanj mrfwtg nb tge pf`njy ahders teapt tf reiuje tge JF? eanssnfks nktge `fkm tera èss tghk nk jfuktrnes wgere JF? eanssnfks ns kft h prfoèa tfjfksnier+

Hs we jhk see nt ns kft jèhr yet gfw ekvnrfkaekth` pf`njnes hffiejts ejfkfanjmrfwtg nk tge `fkm tera hki afre napfrthkt, gfw tgea jfuì jghkme fver spe!

jnj jfuktry mrfups+ Bfr exhapè, nb we jfaphre twf ejfkfanes wntg tge shaejghrhjternstnjs exjept nk tgenr MIS mrfwtg, we ahy tgnkd tght tge ejfkfaywntg afre ejfkfanj mrfwtg sgfuì use afre types fb kfk!bfssn` bue` jfaous!tnfks tgrfumg guahk hjtnvntnes sujg hs trhkspfrthtnfk, nkiustry, resniektnh` frjfaaerjnh` tght sgfuì hffiejt tge ekvnrfkaekth` systea tgrfumg tge eanssnfkfb afre JF? pf`ùthkt nk tgenr ekvnrfkaekt+ ]gnè h ejfkfay wgere tge ève`fb mrfwtg ns èss, tge ushme fb prnahry sfurje fb mhs eanssnfks ns kft hs reèvhkths nk gnmg nkjfae ejfkfanes+ Out nt jfuì exnst tge fppfsnte jhse wgere afreieve`fpei ejfkfanes wntg gnmger nkjfaes jfuì use afre brneki`y ekvnrfkaek!th` sfurjes tf reiuje tge pf`ùtnfk fb JF? eanssnfks sf ns kft jèhr gfw we jhknkterpret tge re`htnfksgnp oetweek JF? eanssnfks hki ejfkfanj mrfwtg nk terasfb jhush`nty+

Yge Nkterkhtnfkh` Ekermy Hmekjy 'NEH. reèhsei every yehr tge `nst fb tgeafst ejnekt jfuktrnes nk tgns ekvnrfkaekth` nssue+ Ygey frmhknze nt brfa tgeafst ejnekt jfuktry tf tge wfrst pf`ùter jfuktry+ Yge ejnekt jfuktrnes hretgfse wgf prfiuje tge afst ejfkfanj futput wntg tge èhst JF? eanssnfks+Ygns ahy oe ge`pbu` nb we tgnkd tght ht tge tfp fb tge `nst tgere hre ahkyieve`fpei jfuktrnes wntg gnmg nkjfae ève`s hki wntg h pf`ùtnfk rhte reh``yejnekt nk teras fb re`htnfk fb MIS hki JF?+ Jfuktrnes `nde Zwntzer`hki,Kfrwhy, Brhkje, Zweiek fr Nre`hki èhier tge tfp+ Zf tge inrejtnfk hki snmk fbjhush`nty oetweek tgns twf vhrnhoès ns èss tghk jèhr nk tge `fkm!ruk+ Afrefver,tgns NEH frmhknzhtnfk wn`` oe ge`pbu` nb we dkfw tght fk`y aeaoers fb tgeFrmhknshtnfk bfr Ejfkfanj Jffperhtnfk hki Ieve`fpaekt 'FEJI. jhk oejfaeaeaoers fb NEH iue tf tgns frmhknshtnfk whs estho`nsgei nk tge brhaewfrd fbtge FEJI mrfup nk 8>=98, sf tge FEJI jfuktnes wn`` oe tfpnj fb stuiy nk tgns

phper+Yf hkswer tgns questnfks hofut tge jhush`nty hafkm JF? eanssnfks hki ejf!kfanj mrfwtg tge rst tgnkm tght we sgfuì if ns tf j`hssnby tge jfuktrnes nksfae mrfups hjjfrinkm tf tgenr jghrhjternstnjs hki sfae napfrthkt quh`ntnes+

8Bfr afre iethn`s vnsnt tge weo sfurje fb Nkterkhtnfkh` Ekermy Hmekmy

?
http://www.iea.org/http://www.iea.org/


3/37

Ygek we use tge bf``fwnkm ejfkfaetrnj tff`s fb kfk!sthtnfkhry phke` ihth tejg!knques< rst fb h`` tf ieteranke tge frier fb nktemrhtnfk, we hpp`y uknt rfft

tests, sujg hs Na, Seshrhk y Zgnk '?33:., @evnk, @nk y Jgu '?33?., Ahiih`hy ]u '8>>>.+ @hter hpp`y tge Seirfkn '?339. jfnktemrhtnfk test nk frier tfieteranke wgetger fr kft exnst h `fkm!ruk re`htnfksgnp hafkm tge vhrnhoès oytge estnahtfr fb sevek sthtnstnjs oetweek phrhaetrnj, sean!phrhaetrnj hki kfk!phrhaetrnj+ Ghvnkm estho`nsgei tght nk ehjg jfuktry, tge sernes JF? eanssnfksper jhpnth hki MIS per jhpnth hre nkinvniuh``y kfk sthtnfkhry out tfmetger hrejfnktemrhtei, tgek we jhk represekt tgfse sernes nk tge brfa fb h iykhanj errfrjfrrejtnfk afie` 'Ekmè hki Mrhkmer., hki tgns afie` wn`` mnve us tge inrejtnfkfb jhush`nty hafkm JF? eanssnfks per jhpnth hki MIS per jhpnth hki tge snmkfb tgns re`htnfksgnp+

Yge strujture fb tgns phper wn`` oe hs bf``fws< rst, Zejtnfk ? nktrfiujes tgeejfkfaetrnj afie` hpprfhjg nkjùinkm hk ekvnrfkaekth` stfjd vhrnhoè prfpfseioy Inkih " Jffkiff '?335., tgek nk Zejtnfk : we wn`` exp`hnk gfw we frmhknzetge ihth set nktf mrfups hki gfw we fothnk tge jfrrespfkinkm ihth bfr tgnsstuiy, hs we`` hs tge resu`ts bfr tge uknt rfft test hki jfnktemrhtnfk test bfr ehjgmrfup+ Zejtnfk 9 wn`` nktrfiuje tge `fkm!ruk effiejts nk frier tf met tge inrejtnfkhki tge snmk fb jhush`nty hafkm JF? eanssnfks hki MIS+ Zejtnfk 5 nkterpretstge resu`ts hki kh``y Zejtnfk 2 mnves h jfkjùsnfk ohsei fk tge purpfse fb tgnsphper+ Hppekinxes H tf J mnve tge tgefretnjh` ejfkfaetrnjs aetgfis usei nktgns wfrd+

8+8 @nterhture revnew

Ekvnrfkaekth` nssues ghi oejhae very napfrthkt espejnh``y thdnkm nktf hjjfukttght sfae fb tgea hre pfssno`y re`htei wntg tge ejfkfanj mrfwtg nk sfae jfuk!

trnes oejhuse fb tght nt ghs oejhae h prnfrnty bfr pf`njy ahders+ Fur phperns ohse fk Inkih " Jffkiffs '?335. phper tght stuines tge khture fb jhush`!nty oetweek per jhpnth JF? eanssnfk hki per jhpnth MIS spejnjh``y usnkm hjrfss jfuktry phke` ihth set jfvernkm 77 jfuktrnes bfr tge pernfi fver 8>23!>3+Ygey sthrt ifnkm uknt rfft test hki bfuki tght oftg vhrnhoès ghi fke uknt rffttgek tgey prebfraei tge phke` ihth jfnktemrhtnfk test hki kh``y estnahtei tgeEJA 'wgnjg ns ohse fk Ekmè!Mrhkmer errfr jfrrejtnfk afie` estnahtnfk. bfr tgejfuktry mrfups tght were jfnktemrhtei tf dkfw nb tgere whs jhush`nty oetweekper jhpnth JF? eanssnfk hki per jhpnth MIS+ Ygey bfuki tght tgere whs afrefr èss h on!inrejtnfkh` jhush` re`htnfksgnp oetweek per jhpnth JF? eanssnfk hkiper jhpnth MIS nk sfae jfuktry mrfups `nde Hbrnjh, Jektrh` Haernjh, Haernjhhs h wgfè, Ehsterk Eurfpe, ]esterk Eurfpe, Eurfpe hs h wgfè hki tge wfrìhs h wgfè+ Hki jfkjùiei tght bfr tgese jfuktry mrfups tge afveaekt fb fke

vhrnhoè inrejt`y hffiejts tge ftger vhrnhoè tgek tge pf`njy ahders sgfuì oejhutnfus tf ahde prfper iejnsnfk hofut tge jfktrf` fb eanssnfk ève` bfr tgfsejfuktry mrfups+

Ygere hre ftger phpers tght stuines tge tge khture fb jhush`nty oetweek JF?eanssnfk hki ejfkfanj mrfwtg, gere we hre mfnkm tf `nst sfae=7!?335, exjept bfr _ussnh '8>>?!?335.+ Ygey bfuki tght tge jhush`ntyresu`ts nkinjhte tght tgere ns oninrejtnfkh` strfkm jhush`nty oetweek eanssnfks hkiBIN+ Nk tge `fkm!ruk, tgere hre oftg eanssnfks!ekermy jfksuaptnfk hki ekermyjfksuaptnfk!BIN oninrejtnfkh` jhush`ntnes, h`fkm wntg ukninrejtnfkh` jhush`ntybrfa futput tf eanssnfks, ekermy jfksuaptnfk hki BIN, respejtnve`y+ Bfr tgesgfrt!ruk iykhanjs tgey bfuki ukninrejtnfkh` jhush`nty brfa ekermy jfksuap!

tnfk hki eanssnfks, respejtnve`y tf reh` futput+ Ygenr jfkjùsnfk whs tght nkfrier tf reiuje eanssnfks hki kft tf hiverse`y hffiejt ejfkfanj mrfwtg, tge O_NJieve`fpnkm jfuktrnes sgfuì nkjrehse tgenr nkvestaekt nk nkbrhstrujture bfr ek!ermy ejnekjy hki strekmtgek tgenr ekermy jfkservhtnfk pf`njnes tf reiuje oftgekermy ieahki hki ukkejesshry whste+ Ygns jfkjùsnfk ns nkterestnkm oejhuse nste``nkm us tght evek wgek JF? eanssnfks hki MSI ghve on!inrejtnfkh` jhush`ntytge ekvnrfkaekth` remu`htfry pf`njnes jfuì stn`` wfrdnkm nb tgey anx tgea wntgftger pf`njnes tght suppfrt tge ejfkfanj mrfwtg+

Jfktnkunkm fk tge shae `nke fb on!inrejtnfkh` jhush`nty oetweek JF? eans!snfks hki ejfkfanj mrfwtg we ghve ftger phper brfa ]hkm " \gfu '?388. nktgns phper tgey exhankes tge jhush` re`htnfksgnps oetweek jhrofk infxnie eans!snfks, ekermy jfksuaptnfk hki reh` ejfkfanj futput usnkm phke` jfnktemrhtnfkhki phke` vejtfr errfr jfrrejtnfk afie`nkm tejgknques ohsei fk tge phke` ihth

bfr ?7 prfvnkjes nk Jgnkh fver tge pernfi 8>>5?33=+ Ygenr eapnrnjh` resu`tssgfw tght JF? eanssnfks, ekermy jfksuaptnfk hki ejfkfanj mrfwtg ghve hp!pehrei tf oe jfnktemrhtei+ H`sf tgey bfuki tght exnsts oninrejtnfkh` jhush`ntyoetweek JF? eanssnfks hki ekermy jfksuaptnfk, hki h`sf oetweek ekermy jfk!suaptnfk hki ejfkfanj mrfwtg+ Ygey h`sf bfuki tght ekermy jfksuaptnfk hkiejfkfanj mrfwtg hre tge `fkm!ruk jhuses bfr JF? eanssnfks4 hki JF? eanssnfks

9


5/37

hki ejfkfanj mrfwtg hre tge `fkm!ruk jhuses bfr ekermy jfksuaptnfk+ Ygenrresu`ts nkinjhte tght Jgnkhs JF? eanssnfks wn`` kft iejrehse nk h `fkm pernfi

fb tnae hki reiujnkm JF? eanssnfks ahy ghkinjhp Jgnkhs ejfkfanj mrfwtg tfsfae iemree+

Ftger snan`hr phper ns tge fke brfa Dflf '?383. nk gns phper exhankes tge`fkm!ruk hki tge jhush` re`htnfksgnp oetweek ejfkfanj mrfwtg, pf`ùthkt eans!snfks hki ekermy jfksuaptnfk bfr Zfutg Hbrnjh bfr tge pernfi 8>25?332 nk hau`tnvhrnhte brhaewfrd wgnjg nkjùies `hofur hki jhpnth` hs hiintnfkh` vhrn!hoès+ Usnkm tge ofuki test hpprfhjg tf jfnktemrhtnfk, ge bfuki h sgfrt!ruk hswe`` hs h `fkm!ruk re`htnfksgnp hafkm tge vhrnhoès wntg h pfsntnve hki h sthtnstn!jh``y snmknjhkt re`htnfksgnp oetweek pf`ùthkt eanssnfks hki ejfkfanj mrfwtg+Ygek ge hpp`y h afinei versnfk fb tge Mrhkmer jhush`nty test hki bfuki hukninrejtnfkh` jhush`nty rukknkm brfa pf`ùthkt eanssnfks tf ejfkfanj mrfwtg4brfa ekermy jfksuaptnfk tf ejfkfanj mrfwtg hki brfa ekermy jfksuaptnfk tfJF? eanssnfks h`` wntgfut h beeiohjd+ ]ntg tge ejfkfaetrnj evniekje ge jfk!jùiei tght Zfutg Hbrnjh ghs tf shjrnje ejfkfanj mrfwtg fr reiuje nts ekermyjfksuaptnfk per uknt fb futput fr oftg nk frier tf reiuje pf`ùthkt eanssnfks+Nk tge `fkm!ruk gfwever, nt ns pfssnoè tf aeet tge ekermy keeis fb tge jfuktryhki ht tge shae tnae reiuje JF? eanssnfks oy ieve`fpnkm ekermy h`terkhtnvestf jfh`, tge ahnk sfurje fb JF? eanssnfks+

Nk tge fier ghki tgere hre ftger stuines nk wgnjg tgenr hutgfrs ini kft bfukih on!inrejtnfkh` jhush`nty oetweek JF? eanssnfks, hki ejfkfanj mrfwtg+ Ygey

lust bfuki h ukn!inrejtnfkh` jhush`nty hki nk tgns jhses pf`njy ahders ghve èsstrfuoès+ Yge rst phper tght we hre mfnkm tf thde nktf hjjfukt ns bfra Gwhkm" ^ff '?38?. wgnjg ns ohses fk tge jfkjerk fb tge ekermy pf`njy ahders nkNkifkesnh hofut tge sgfrt hki `fkm ruk jhush` re`htnfksgnp oetweek ekermy jfk!suaptnfk, JF? eanssnfks, hki ejfkfanj mrfwtg usnkm tnae sernes tejgknques+

Fver 8>25!?332+ Bfr tge stuiy tgey usei tge bf``fwnkm test< uknt rfft, jfnkte!mrhtnfk, hki Mrhkmer!jhush`nty ohsei fk hki errfr!jfrrejtnfk afie`+Yge resu`tstgey mft sgfwei tght bfr Nkifkesnh tgere ns h on!inrejtnfkh` jhush`nty oetweekekermy jfksuaptnfk hki JF? eanssnfks+ tgns aehks tght hki nkjrehse nk ekermyjfksuaptnfk inrejt`y hffiejts JF? eanssnfks hki tge JF? eanssnfks h`sf stna!u`hte burtger ekermy jfksuaptnfk+ Ygey h`sf bfuki h ukn!inrejtnfkh` jhush`ntyrukknkm brfa ejfkfanj mrfwtg tf ekermy jfksuaptnfk hki JF? eanssnfks wntg!fut hky beeiohjd effiejt+ Zf tge jfkjùsnfk fb tgenr phper whs tght tgey jhknkntnhte reiujtnfk pf`njnes bfr ekermy jfksuaptnfk hki JF? eanssnfks wntgfutjfksejuekjes nk tge ejfkfanj mrfwtg+ Yge resu`ts tght Gwhkm " ^ff bfuki hrekft bfr phke` out tgey hre very napfrthkt bfr us oejhuse hs we aektnfkei fktge nktrfiujtnfk ns kft fovnfus tf ghve h on!inrejtnfkh` jhush`nty nk h`` jfuktrnestgek tge restrnjtnve pf`njnes hre kft mfnkm tf hffiejt tge MIS mrfwtg nk h`` jhses+

Jfktnkunkm fk tge shae snie kfw we hre mfnkm tf qufte tge phper brfaBhrghkn " Oek _eleo '?38?. nk tgns tge sgfw tgenr jfkjerkei nk tge vnth` rfè tghtekermy p`hys nk ejfkfanj ieve`fpaekt+ Ohse fk tght tgey stuiy tge inrejtnfk fbjhush`nty oetweek ekermy jfksuaptnfk, ejfkfanj mrfwtg 'MIS. hki Jf? eans!snfks+ Nk tge ieve`fpaekt fb tgenr phper, rst, tgey hpp nei tge phke` uknt rffttests, tgek phke` jfnktemrhtnfk aetgfis hki kh``y phke` jhush`nty test tf nkves!

5


6/37

tnmhte tge re`htnfksgnp oetweek ekermy jfksuaptnfk, MIS hki JF?eanssnfks bfr85 AEKH? jfuktrnes jfvernkm tge hkkuh` pernfi 8>=:!?337+ Ygey bfuki tght

tgere ns kf jhush` `nkd oetweek MIS hki ekermy jfksuaptnfk4 hki oetweekJF? eanssnfks hki ekermy jfksuaptnfk nk tge sgfrt ruk+ Gfwever, nk tge `fkmruk, tgere ns h ukninrejtnfkh` jhush`nty rukknkm brfa MIS hki JF? eanssnfkstf ekermy jfksuaptnfk+ Nk hiintnfk, tf ieh` wntg tge geterfmekenty nk jfuktrneshki tge ekifmekenty onhs nk remressfrs, tgey hpp`nei respejtnve`y tge BAF@Zhki tge IF@Z hpprfhjg tf estnahte tge `fkm!ruk re`htnfksgnp oetweek tgesetgree bhjtfrs+ Hs we jhk see nk tgns phper pf`njy ahders bfra tgeses jfuktrnesifes kft ghve tf oe jfkjerk hofut restrnjtnkm ekvnrfkaekth` pf`njnes hffiejtnkmtge MIS nk tge `fkm ruk+

H`sf we hre mfnkm tf thde nktf hjjfukt sfae phpers tght ifes kft ghveejfkfaetrnj phke` tejgknques out tgenr resu`ts hre napfrthkt nk fur phper tgerst fke ns brfa Zfythsh, Zhrno " Ewnkmj '?33=. nk tgenr phper tgey nkvestnmhteitge effiejt fb ekermy jfksuaptnfk hki futput fk jhrofk eanssnfks nk tge UknteiZthtes+ Zpejnjh``y tgey nkvestnmhtei tge Mrhkmer jhush`nty re`htnfksgnp oetweeknkjfae, ekermy jfksuaptnfk, hki jhrofk eanssnfks, nkjùinkm `hofr hki mrfssxei jhpnth` bfrahtnfk nk tge afie`+ Ygey bfuki tght nkjfae ifes kft Mrhkmerjhuse jhrofk eanssnfks nk tge UZ nk tge `fkm ruk, out ekermy use ifes+ Bfratgese phper we bfuki tght Nt wfuì oe napfrthkt tf dkfw wght ghppeks wntgtge jhush`nty nk tge ftger why oetweek jhrofk eanssnfks hki MIS ghvnkm tgfseresu`ts pf`njy ahders jfuì thde oetter iejnsnfks+

Yge sejfki phper tght we hre mfnkm tf thde nktf hjjfukt ns bfra Ahghaht'?38?. nk gns phper ge nkvestnmhtei tge `fkm!ruk hki tge jhush` re`htnfksgnpoetweek mreekgfuse mhs eanssnfks, ekermy jfksuaptnfk hki ejfkfanj mrfwtgbfr Jhkhinhk nkiustrnh` sejtfrs fver tge pernfi 8>>3?33=+ Ge bfuki tght nktge `fkm!ruk equn`nornua, h kfk!`nkehr re`htnfksgnp ns bfuki oetweek mreekgfuse

mhs eanssnfks hki ejfkfanj mrfwtg, jfksnstekt wntg tge ekvnrfkaekth` Duzketsjurve:+ Yge sgfrt!ruk iykhanjs jfkveys tght tgere ns h ukninrejtnfkh` Mrhkmerjhush`nty rukknkm brfa ekermy jfksuaptnfk tf mreekgfuse mhs eanssnfks4 brfaejfkfanj mrfwtg tf mreekgfuse mhs eanssnfks hki h wehd ukninrejtnfkh` jhush`!nty rukknkm brfa mreekgfuse mhs eanssnfks tf ekermy jfksuaptnfk4 brfa ejf!kfanj mrfwtg tf ekermy jfksuaptnfk+ Nk tge `fkm!ruk gfwever, tgere seeas tfoe h wehd fke why jhush`nty fwnkm brfa ekermy jfksuaptnfk hki ejfkfanjmrfwtg tf mreekgfuse mhs eanssnfks+ Hs we suppfsei ieve`fpei jfuktrnes ifeskft ghve h on!inrejtnfkh` jhush`nty oetweek JF? eanssnfks hki ejfkfanj mrfwtgoejhuse fb tght tgey hre very strnjt wntg ekvnrfkaekth` pf`njnes+

Kfw we hre mfnkm tf thde nktf hjjfukt ftger phper tght we bfuki nkterestnkmbrfa Rnsgh` '?388. gns phper htteapts tf test tge Ekvnrfkaekt Duzkets Jurve'EDJ. gypftgesns bfr :2 gnmg!nkjfae jfuktrnes bfr tge pernfi 8>73?335+ Yge

test ns ohsei fk tge summestnfk fb Khrhyhk hki Khrhyhk '?383.+ ]ght ge ifns vhrnfus phke` ihth uknt rfft hki jf!nktemrhtnfk tests+ Ge bfuki tght Jhr!

?Aniiè Ehst hki Kfrtg Hbrnjh Jfuktrnes:ns tge mrhpgnjh` represekthtnfk fb Znafk Duzkets gypftgesns tght hs h jfuktry ieve`fps

tgere ns h khturh jyjè fb ejfkfanj nkequh`nty irnvek oy ahrdet bfrjes wgnjg ht rst nkjrehsesnkequh`nty hki tgek iejrehses nt hbter h jerthnk hverhme nkjfae ns htthnkei

2


7/37

ofk infxnie 'JF?. eanssnfks hki MIS sernes hre nktemrhtei fb frier fke hkijf!nktemrhtei, espejnh``y hbter jfktrf``nkm bfr jrfss!sejtnfkh` iepekiekje+ Hiin!

tnfkh``y, tge Oùkie`Òfki systea mekerh`nzei aetgfis fb afaekts 'MAA. nseap`fyei tf jfkiujt h phke` jhush`nty test nk h vejtfr errfr!jfrrejtnfk aejg!hknsa 'REJA. settnkm+ Ukninrejtnfkh` jhush nty rukknkm brfa reh` per jhpnthMIS tf per jhpnth JF? eanssnfks ns ukjfverei nk oftg tge sgfrt!ruk hki tge`fkm!ruk+ Yge jfkjùsnfk fb gns phper whs tght JF? eanssnfks hre sthon`nznkm nktge rnjg jfuktrnes+

Ygere hre sfae phpers tght thde nktf hjjfukt ftger vhrnhoès jhush`nty nk!jùinkm JF? eanssnfks hki ejfkfanj mrfwtg `nde tge phper brfa Zghrnb Gfsshnk'?388. nk wgnjg ge exhankes tge iykhanj jhush` re`htnfksgnps oetweek jhrofkinfxnie eanssnfks, ekermy jfksuaptnfk, ejfkfanj mrfwtg, trhie fpekkess hkiurohknzhtnfk bfr tge phke` fb kew`y nkiustrnh`nzei jfuktrnes 'KNJ. usnkm tgetnae sernes ihth bfr tge pernfi 8>=8?33=+ Yf prfve tge jhush`nty ge Usei bfurinffierekt phke` uknt rfft tests nt ns bfuki tght h`` phke` vhrnhoès hre nktemrhtei fbfrier 8+ Ygek ge if tge Lfghksek Bnsger phke` jfnktemrhtnfk test nt ns bfuki tghttgere ns h jfnktemrhtnfk vejtfr hafkm tge vhrnho es+ Hki kh``y tge Mrhkmerjhush`nty test resu`ts suppfrt tght tgere ns kf evniekje fb `fkm!ruk jhush` re`h!tnfksgnp, out tgere ns ukninrejtnfkh` sgfrt!ruk jhush` re`htnfksgnp brfa ejfkfanjmrfwtg hki trhie fpekkess tf jhrofk infxnie eanssnfks, brfa ejfkfanj mrfwtgtf ekermy jfksuaptnfk, brfa trhie fpekkess tf ejfkfanj mrfwtg, brfa urohk!nzhtnfk tf ejfkfanj mrfwtg hki brfa trhie fpekkess tf urohknzhtnfk+ Ygnsnkinjhtes tght fver tnae gnmger ekermy jfksuaptnfk nk tge kew`y nkiustrnh`nzeijfuktrnes mnves rnse tf afre jhrofk infxnie eanssnfks hs h resu`t fur ekvnrfk!aekt wn`` oe pf`ùtei afre+ Out nk respejt fb ejfkfanj mrfwtg, trhie fpekkesshki urohknzhtnfk tge ekvnrfkaekth` quh`nty ns bfuki tf oe kfrah` mffi nk tge`fkm!ruk+ Yhdnkm nk tf hjjfukt ftger vhrnhoès jhk mnve us h oetter fver vnew fb

tge ekvnrfkaekth` naphjt fk ejfkfanj mrfwtg hki vnje versh+Ygere hre ahky phpers tght hkh`yzei ftgers napfrthkt ekvnrfkaekth` nssuesre`htei wntg MIS mrfwtg+ Fke fb tgea ns Hpermns " Shyke '?33>. wgnjg ex!hankes tge hafkm oetweek ekermy jfksuaptnfk hki ejfkfanj mrfwtg bfr snxJektrh` Haernjhk jfuktrnes bfr tge pernfi 8>73?339+ Ygey eap`fyei h phke`jfnktemrhtnfk hki errfr jfrrejtnfk afie` tf nkber tge jhush` re`htnfksgnp oetweekekermy jfksuaptnfk hki ejfkfanj mrfwtg+ Bnrst tgey evhùhtei jfnktemrhtnfkohsei fk tge geterfmekefus phke` jfnktemrhtnfk test oy Seirfkn, hki bfuki tghtjfnktemrhtnfk ns presekt oetweek reh` MIS hki ekermy jfksuaptnfk, tge `hofrbfrje, hki reh` mrfss xei jhpnth` bfrahtnfk wntg tge respejtnve jfejnekts pfs!ntnve hki sthtnstnjh `y snmknjhkt+ Ygek tgey ahie tge Mrhkmer!jhush nty testhki nts resu`ts nkinjhte tge presekje fb oftg sgfrt!ruk hki `fkm!ruk jhush`ntybrfa ekermy jfksuaptnfk tf ejfkfanj mrfwtg wgnjg ns very napfrthkt oejhuse

suppfrts tge mrfwtg gypftgesns+Ftger phper tght re`htes ekermy jfksuaptnfk wntg ejfkfanj mrfwtg ns tge

bf``fwnkm brfa @hu, Jgye " Jgffkm '?388. tgey re!exhankes tge inrejtnfk fbjhush`nty hki tge snmk 'nk tge phke` sekse. oetweek ekermy jfksuaptnfk hkitge mrfss!ifaestnj prfiujt 'MIS. bfr 8= seèjtei Hsnhk jfuktrnes+ Ygey bfukitght nk tge `fkm!ruk sthoè equn`nornuas nk tgese jfuktrnes, wgnè tge ekermy jfk!

=


8/37

suaptnfk ornkms hofut h pfsntnve naphjt fk MIS+ Jhush`nty ruks brfa ekermyjfksuaptnfk tf MIS nk tge sgfrt!ruk, wgnè tge `fkm!ruk jhush` `nkdhme exnsts

brfa MIS tf ekermy jfksuaptnfk+ Ygey jfkjùiei tght ekermy ns h bfrje bfrejfkfanj mrfwtg nk tge sgfrt!ruk, out nk tge `fkm!ruk, tge ekermy jfksuap!tnfk ns bukihaekth``y irnvek oy ejfkfanj mrfwtg+ Ygek ejnekt jffrinkhtnfkhki jffperhtnfk tfwhris tge napèaekthtnfk fb ekermy jfkservhtnfk pf`njnes tfsuppfrt susthnkhoè ejfkfanj ieve`fpaekt sgfuì oe nk tge remnfkh` hmekih+

Yge hkh`ysns fb h`` tgese phpers ge`ps us jfkra wght we wfuì see nk tgnsphper+ H`` fb tgea, nk frier tf prfve tge jhush`nty oetweek JF? eanssnfks hkiejfkfanj mrfwtg usei tge bf``fwnkm ejfkfaetrnj tff`s rst tgey test uknt rfft,tgek ahie jfnktemrhtnfk test hki kh``y use Mrhkmer jhush`nty test tf dkfw nbtgere ns fr kft jhush`nty+ ]e h`sf shw tght tge resu`ts jghkme iepekinkm tgejfuktrnes sf nt ns reh` napfrthkt bfr pf`njyahder tf stuiy tgns jhush`nty test tfoe sure tght tgey hre kft hffiejtnkm ejfkfanj mrfwtg+ Bnkh``y we bfuki tght wesgfuì nkjùie ftger vhrnhoès `nde ekermy jfksuaptnfk nk burtger stuines tghthre very tnie wgnt tgns hkh`ysns hki jhk mnve us h oetter fvervnew fb gfw JF?eanssnfks hffiejt ejfkfanj mrfwtg h vnje versh+

? Ejfkfanj Afie` Hpprfhjg ]ntg Eanssnfks

Yge aftnvhtnfk nk teras fb hk ejfkfanj afie` ns tge shae hs tge afie` pre!sektei oy Inkih " Jffkiff '?335.4 nt ghs tge bf``fwnkm `fmnj fb tgefretnjh`jfkstrujtnfk< jfksniernkm h fke!mffi ejfkfay wgere sfae ekvnrfkaekth` jfk!intnfk hffiejts oftg utn`nty hki prfiujtnfk ève` bfr h represekthtnve hmekt+ Ygerepresekthtnfk aust oe iekei hs tge nkknte tnae gfrnzfk nkter!teapfrh` nkh jfksuaptnfk jgfnje prfoèa wgere sgfuì ahxnanze tge utn`nty ] tght ns hbukjtnfk fb jfksuaptnfk hki ekvnrfkaekt, suolejt tf sfae stfjd vhrnhoès sujg

hs jhpnth` D't. hki ekvnrfkaekth` E't.+ Yge prfoèa jfuì oe represektei hs

Ahx ] 1

3

etU'J't., E't..it '8.

suolejt tf twf jfkstrhnks tght mnve us h resu`t bfr 53 tnae pernfis fb :+9?79 usnkm tge trukjhtnfkaetgfi+ Bfr afre iethnèi prfjess see Kewey " ]est '8>>9.

8?
http://www.estima.com/cgi-bin/procbrowser.cgihttp://www.estima.com/cgi-bin/procbrowser.cgi


13/37

nk inffierekje bfr `fm SJMIS hki sthtnfkhry prfjess nk inffierekje bfr h`` jhseswntgfut usnkm h ieteranknstnj treki bfr `fm SJJF? exjept bfr Ehst Eurfpe out

hmhnk, fk`y ht 5% fb snmknjhkje+

@fm SJMIS SJMIS @fm SJJF? SJJF?

Hbrnjh ]ntgfut Yreki ?+?? !2+=8,,, 8+33 !5+27,,,

K1:: ]ntg Yreki 3+?? !8+=2,, 8+5> !:+55,,,

Hsnh ]ntgfut Yreki 8+?: !9+=7,,, :+:> !?+5:,,,

K182 ]ntg Yreki !3+9: !5+55,,, !3+73 !7+:9,,,

Haernjh ]ntgfut Yreki 8+57 !5+?>,,, 8+8? !2+:5,,,

K1?9 ]ntg Yreki 8+23 !:+37,,, ?+?> !:+2=,,,

Jektrh` Haernjh ]ntgfut Yreki 8+37 !?>+:>,,, !3+?= !>+9=,,,

K18? ]ntg Yreki 3+:3 !82+39,,, 3+?5 !=+:3,,,

Zfutg Haernjh ]ntgfut Yreki 3+>3 !?+9=,,, !8+8> !:+>=,,,

K183 ]ntg Yreki !8+?3 !82+3?,,, !3+2= !>+:2,,,

Kfrtg Haernjh ]ntgfut Yreki 8+33 !8?+:9,,, !?+55,,, !?+27,,,

K1? ]ntg Yreki !3+3= !85+>=,,, !8+38 !8+:7,

Fjehknh ]ntgfut Yreki 3+98 !:7+7:,,, !3+>: !9+29,,,

K19 ]ntg Yreki !3+>> !?:+>=,,, !5+2:,,, !=+9?,,,

Ehst Eurfpe ]ntgfut Yreki 3+>? !=+=7,,, !9+=:,,, !>+2?,,,

K19 ]ntg Yreki !3+5= !88+75,,, !?+?3,, !?+3=,,

]est Eurfpe ]ntgfut Yreki ?+:8 !7+72,,, 8+>: !9+52,,,

K185 ]ntg Yreki !8+8: !2+75,,, !3+?8 !?+32,,

Eurfpe ]ntgfut Yreki 3+9= !7+8?,,, !3+3> !83+7,,,

K18> ]ntg Yreki 3+75 !=+?2,,, !3+2 !83+>,,,

Gnmg Nkjfae ]ntgfut Yreki 8+53 !5+>9,,, ?+=9 !:+5?,,,

K1:3 ]ntg Yreki !8+3= !9+85,,, ?+25 !9+7=,,,

Upper Aniiè Nkjfae ]ntgfut Yreki 3+=> !9+8>,,, 3+:8 !:+>8,,,

K1?2 ]ntg Yreki 8+== !?+7>,,, 8+27 !:+>8,,,

@fwer Aniiè Nkjfae ]ntgfut Yreki :+82 !:+=5,,, 8+:8 !:+3:,,,

K1?7 ]ntg Yreki 3+2: !5+?9,,, 8+89 !9+7>,,,

@fw nkjfae ]ntgfut Yreki :+2? !8:+95,,, !8+72,, !>+57,,,

K18? ]ntg Yreki !3+2> !=+72,,, !8+? !9+38,,,

FEJI ]ntgfut Yreki ?+72 !5+35,,, ?+87 !9+92,,,

K1?= ]ntg Yreki ?+37 !?+?9,, :+72 !8+5=,

KF FEJI ]ntgfut Yreki 8+2 !5+?2,,, 8+2= !5+58,,,

K12> ]ntg Yreki 8+7> !8+95, ?+?9 !8+2?,

]frì ]ntgfut Yreki 3+:: !7+8=,,, !3+85 !>+3=,,,

K1>2 ]ntg Yreki ?+== !5+::,,, 8+75 !5+22,,,

Kftes8 !:+98,,,

K1:: ]ntg Yreki ?+=8 !?+>?,,,

Hsnh ]ntgfut Yreki 9+?> !3+:>

K182 ]ntg Yreki ?+98 !3+?9

Haernjh ]ntgfut Yreki !3+?? !3+57

K1?9 ]ntg Yreki !8+5:, !8+:?,

Jektrh` Haernjh ]ntgfut Yreki !3+: !8+7=,,

K18? ]ntg Yreki !3+89 !8+9?,

Zfutg Haernjh ]ntgfut Yreki 3+>? !8+8:

K183 ]ntg Yreki !8+3= !9+3?,,,

Kfrtg Haernjh ]ntgfut Yreki 3+82 !3+?2

K1? ]ntg Yreki !3+? !:+57,,,

Fjehknh ]ntgfut Yreki 3+5= !8+27,,

K19 ]ntg Yreki 3+:? !3+3=

Ehst Eurfpe ]ntgfut Yreki !8+?: 8+:9

K19 ]ntg Yreki !3+?8 !3+>:

]est Eurfpe ]ntgfut Yreki 3+:7 !:+3?,,,

K185 ]ntg Yreki ?+:5 !:+28,,,

Eurfpe ]ntgfut Yreki !3+92 !:+57,,,

K18> ]ntg Yreki ?+82 !9+8=,,,

Gnmg Nkjfae ]ntgfut Yreki 8+32 !:+89,,,

K1:3 ]ntg Yreki ?+27 !:+3>,,,

Upper Aniiè Nkjfae ]ntgfut Yreki 3+89 !3+5>

K1?2 ]ntg Yreki !8+9, ?+8>

@fwer Aniiè Nkjfae ]ntgfut Yreki 3+=: !3+7:

K1?7 ]ntg Yreki 8+2 3+5?

@fw nkjfae ]ntgfut Yreki 8+>2 !8+78,,

K18? ]ntg Yreki !8+>,, !:+>2,,,

FEJI ]ntgfut Yreki !3+85 !3+5=

K1?= ]ntg Yreki ?+:5 8+:9

KF FEJI ]ntgfut Yreki :+>5 !3+>>

K12> ]ntg Yreki :+9= 3+8>

]frì ]ntgfut Yreki :+7> 3+5>

K1>2 ]ntg Yreki 5+?5 3+5=

Kftes< ,,,,,, iekftei snmknjhkje ht 83% 5% hki 8% respejtnve`y+

Yest sthtnstnjs hre instrnoutei hs K'83. ukier ku`` fb Kf Jfnktemrhtnfk YgeH`` hilustei vhùes brfa Seirfkn'?339. bfr jfkstrujt Yest Zthtnstnjs+

Yhoè :< Shke` Jfnktemrhtnfk Yests

8=


18/37

9 @fkm!ruk Effejts

Yge kext step nk fur wfrd hbter ghvnkm testnkm bfr uknt rfft hki jfnktemrhtnfksgfuì oe tf ieterankhte, ukier tge hssuaptnfk fb geterfmekenty, tge inrejtnfkhki tge snmk fb tght `fkm!ruk re`htnfksgnp fb jhush`nty hafkm tgese twf vhrnhoès+Ygese wfuì oe reèvhkt nk frier tf met tge resu`ts fb gfw pf`njnes bfr reiujnkmJF? eanssnfks jfuì hffiejt tge MIS nk tge `fkm ruk hki gfw nt jfuì jghkmefver sfae jfuktry mrfups+ Nk phrtnju`hr sgfuì oe fb fur nkterest tf nkterprettge resu`ts fb tge effiejts fver jghkmes nk JF? fk MIS nk `fkm ruk oejhuse ntjfuì oe afre jfkkejtei wntg tge ekvnrfkaekth` pf`njnes+

9+8 Yge Inrejtnfk fb @fkm!ruk Jhush`nty

Bfr tgns purpfse fkje hssuankm tge vhrnhoès JF? hki MIS hre oftg kfk sth!tnfkhry hki hre nktemrhtei fb frier fke 'n+e+ `fmJF?

N'8. hki `fmMIS

N'8..

hki afrefver oftg hre jfnktemrhtei tgey jfuì oe represektei hs tge Mrhkmer_epresekthtnfk> hjjfrinkm tf equhtnfks usnkm tge Errfr Jfrrejtnfk AetgfiEJA.

]gere testnkm bfr 8n nk Eq+ '7. te` us wgetger h re`htnfk fb jhush ntymfnkm brfa MIS tf JF? exnsts fr kft ukier tge ku`` fb kf `fkm ruk jhush`nty

bfr oftg Mrfup Aehk Estnahtfr hki @haoih!Sehrsfk 'Bnsger. Zthtnstnj, hkisnan`hr`y testnkm bfr ?n nk Eq+ '>. te`` us ukier tge ku`` tght if kft exnsth `fkm ruk jhush`nty mfnkm brfa JF? tf MIS hmhnk bfr oftg Yest Zthtnstnjs+Yge nkterprethtnfk fb resu`ts ahy inffier brfa geterfmekefus fr gfafmekefusphke`sT?8Q+ Ukier tge hssuaptnfk tght l,n 1 l 4 n, l 1 8, ? wght aehksgfafmekenty, tge ku`` hki tge h`terkhtnve hre tge shae bfr oftg Yest Zthtnstnjs+33 '3+33. ?9=+=: '3+33. '3+32.

Jektrh` Haernjh K18?

Mrfup aehk !3+38 !3+:2 '3+:2. !3+?9 !?+3: '3+3?. !3+39

@haoih!pehrsfk :7+5? '3+3:. 78+58 '3+33. '3+83.

Zfutg Haernjh K183

Mrfup aehk 3+38 !3+:3 '3+:7. !3+89 !8+7? '3+3:. !3+8:

@haoih!pehrsfk :9+57 '3+3?. 57+7> '3+33. '3+8=.

Haernjh K1?9

Mrfup aehk !3+38 !3+:> '3+:5. !3+87 !8+79 '3+3:. !3+88

@haoih!pehrsfk ==+7= '3+33. 899+>: '3+33. '3+3>.

Eurfpe K18>

Mrfup aehk 3+35 3+97 '3+2>. !3+8: !8+93 '3+37. !3+37

@haoih!pehrsfk 27+>9 '3+33. 833+9> '3+33. '3+8:.

Gnmg Nkjfae K1:3

Mrfup aehk 3+3? 3+8? '3+55. !3+82 !8+5? '3+32. !3+3:

@haoih!pehrsfk 73+8: '3+39. 858+>= '3+33. '3+8?.

Upper Aniiè Nkj K1?2

Mrfup aehk 3+3? 3+37 '3+5:. !3+8= !8+7= '3+3:. !3+83

@haoih!pehrsfk >8+23 '3+33. 82>+3? '3+33. '3+3>.

@fw Nkjfae K18?

Mrfup aehk !3+3= !8+:7 '3+37. !3+?2 !8+=2 '3+39. !3+9:

@haoih!pehrsfk =9+79 '3+33. =5+2= '3+33. '3+85.

Yhoè 9< Inrejtnfk hki Znmk fb Jhush`nty Yest

Bnrst we wn`` hkh`yze tge inrejtnfk MIS JF?4 nk tgns phrtnju`hr jhsewe ghve tge resu`ts tght we wgere expejtnkm oejhuse nk h`` tge jfuktry mrfupsbfr oftg Yest Zthtnstnjs we relejt tge ku`` fb kf `fkm ruk jhush`nty, tght aehkstght tgere exnsts h re`htnfksgnp fb jhush`nty mfnkm brfa nkjfae tf JF? eanssnfksnk h`` jfuktry mrfups nkjùinkm tge Gnmg nkjfae jfuktrnes hki @fw nkjfaejfuktrnes, sf tge nkjfae ève` fr tge mefmrhpgnjh` jghrhjternstnjs if kft hffiejttge inrejtnfk fb jhush`nty brfa nkjfae tf eanssnfks+ Ygese resu`ts sgfws tght ntns pfssnoè tf relejt zerf hverhme effiejts hafkm h`` tge mrfups hki hiintnfkh``y

relejt pervhsnve`y zerf effiejts bfr h`` mrfups+ Zf MIS jhuses nk `fkm ruk pfsntnvejghkmes fk JF? eanssnfks nk h`` suomrfups iespnte tgenr nktrnksnj inffierekjes+

Fk tge ftger ghki we ghve tge inrejtnfk JF? MIS4 nk tgns jhse we ghvepervhsnve`y kfkzerf `fkm ruk effiejts bfr h`` suomrfups hki zerf hverhme `fkm rukeffiejts m`foh``y hki bfr h`` suomrfups exjept bfr @fw Nkjfae jfuktrnes wgere werelejt zerf hverhme effiejts hafkm tgns spejnh` suomrfup+ Yge nap`njhtnfks fb tgns

?3


21/37

resu`ts hre tght JF? jhuses pervhsnve`y `fkm ruk nkjfae oftg m`foh``y hki bfr h``suomrfups out nk tge phrtnju`hr jhse fb@fw Nkjfae fk hverhme jfuktrnes seeas

tf if kft ghve zerf effiejts h`sf+ Ygese eapnrnjh` resu`ts wn`` oe nkterpretei `hternk Zejtnfk 5+

9+? Yge Znmk fb tge @fkm!ruk Effejts

Ghvnkm exp`hnkei tge inrejtnfk fb jhush`nty we exhanke tgek tge snmk fb tghtinrejtnfk usnkm tge rhtnf fb?8 wgnjg ns h`sf presektei nk Yhoè 9 + ]e keei tfthde nktf hjjfukt tght tgfse rhtnfs hre tge re`htnfk fb twf kfrah` instrnoutnfkshki bfr tght tge nkinvniuh` rhtnfs instrnoutnfk bf``fw h Jhujgy instrnoutnfk wghtaust oe trehtei jhrebu``y iue tf nk tght instrnoutnfk ifes kft exnst aehk hkivhrnhkje hki nap`nes h gehvy nkuekje fb fut`ners nk knte shapès bfr phke` ihth+Nk tgns jhse resu`ts kejesshry tf use Offtstrhp nk frier tf mnve h sfùtnfk tf tgnsprfoèa wgere tge aeinhk ns we`` iekei bfr Jhujgy instrnoutnfk hki h`sf ghs

h we` iekei vhrnhkje+ Gfwever, tgere hre kf dkfwk hkh`ytnj expressnfk bfrvhrnhkje sf keei tf oe snau`htei usnkm Offtstrhppnkm tf prfiuje kew snau`hteimrfup aeinhk snmk rhtnfs+ Ht tge eki fb tgns ifjuaekt Hkkex H presekts tgeresu`t fb nkinvniuh` jfuktry wgnjg mnves us h fvervnew fb gfw tge rhtnf fb `haoihsghs sfae fut`ners `nde bfr exhapè nk tge Dfreh _epuo`nj fr Jhkhih jhse iue tftge bhjt tght Jhujgy Instrnoutnfks nk kfk ofukiei+

Yge nap`njhtnfks fk tge snmk fb tgfse > jfuktry mrfups sgfuì oe hs bf``fws !8+7= ' 3+32 . !3+9>

OU_DNKH BHZF !3+35 !8+>> ' 3+35 . !3+ 37 !8+ 8? ' 3+?2 . !3+57

OF@NRNH !3+3: !3+25 ' 3+5? . !3+?8 !?+87 ' 3+3: . !3+8?

O_H\N@ !3+87 !8+>2 ' 3+35 . !3+:? !?+>2 ' 3+33 . !3+52

OH_OHIFZ !3+88 !?+=5 ' 3+38 . !3+?= !?+>2 ' 3+33 . !3+98

JEKY_H@ HB_+_+ !3+83 !?+98 ' 3+3? . !3+ ?3 !8+ 58 ' 3+8: . !3+9>

JHKHIH !3+32 !8+:2 ' 3+8= . !3+38 !3+89 ' 3+7> . !2+9>

Z]NY\E_@HKI 3+82 ?+>: ' 3+33 . 3+83 3+2= ' 3+58 . !8+23

JGN@E !3+3= !8+9= ' 3+89 . !3+89 !?+55 ' 3+38 . !3+5?

JGNKH 3+32 3+2= ' 3+53 . !3+?2 !?+87 ' 3+3: . 3+?:

JFYE I NRFN_E 3+38 3+82 ' 3+7= . !3+97 !:+9= ' 3+33 . 3+38

JHAE_FFK !3+38 !3+== ' 3+99 . !3+?9 !8+7> ' 3+32 . !3+32

JFKMF !3+3: !3+78 ' 3+9? . !3+98 !?+>7 ' 3+33 . !3+32

JF@FAONH !3+38 !3+22 ' 3+58 . !3+37 !?+39 ' 3+39 . !3+8:

JFAF_FZ !3+8> !?+:9 ' 3+3? . !3+25 !?+59 ' 3+38 . !3+:3

JHSE 3+3: 8+83 ' 3+?= . !3+9: !?+>3 ' 3+33 . 3+3=

JFZYH _NJH !3+38 !3+:7 ' 3+=8 . !3+ ?: !?+ := ' 3+3? . !3+35

J^S_UZ 3+?= 3+== ' 3+99 . !3+95 !8+53 ' 3+8: . 3+28

IEKAH_D !3+33 !3+8? ' 3+>8 . !3+89 !8+22 ' 3+83 . !3+3?

IFANKNJHK _ESUO@ 3+ 8: ?+ 87 ' 3+3: . !3+ 39 !3+ :8 ' 3+=2 . :+?2

H@ME_NH !3+3? !3+>: ' 3+:5 . !3+89 !?+32 ' 3+39 . !3+85

EJUHIF_ !3+38 !3+2? ' 3+5: . !3+85 !?+39 ' 3+39 . !3+3>

EM^SY 3+39 3+75 ' 3+93 . !3+?2 !?+78 ' 3+33 . 3+89

ZSHNK !3+3= !8+?3 ' 3+?: . !3+?7 !8+>5 ' 3+35 . !3+?2

EYGNFSNH !3+35 !3+>3 ' 3+:= . !3+9= !:+23 ' 3+33 . !3+83

BNK@HKI 3+32 8+38 ' 3+:8 . !3+9> !?+7? ' 3+33 . 3+8?

BNLN 3+38 3+?3 ' 3+79 . !3+?2 !8+== ' 3+37 . 3+3:

B_HKJE 3+3: ?+89 ' 3+3: . !3+35 !3+79 ' 3+93 . 3+=3

MHOFK 3+39 8+=: ' 3+37 . !3+:8 !:+:9 ' 3+33 . 3+89

UKNYEI DN KMIFA !3+38 !3+>3 ' 3+:= . !3+ 3= !:+ 89 ' 3+33 . !3+ 8=

MGHKH 3+37 3+7= ' 3+:7 . !3+:2 !8+>> ' 3+35 . 3+??

MUNKEH 3+88 ?+?9 ' 3+3: . 3+32 8+33 ' 3+:? . !8+>7

MHAONH 3+33 3+3? ' 3+>7 . !3+89 !8+77 ' 3+32 . 3+38

MUNKEH ONZZHU !3+35 !3+2= ' 3+53 . !3+ ?? !?+ 8? ' 3+3: . !3+ ?:

EXUHYF_N H@ MUNKE 3+ 3? 3+ :8 ' 3+=2 . !3+ 5? !?+ =5 ' 3+38 . 3+39

M_EEJE 3+3? 3+53 ' 3+2? . !3+8? !?+87 ' 3+3: . 3+89

MUHYEAH@H !3+38 !3+?= ' 3+=> . !3+ ?5 !?+ :8 ' 3+3? . !3+3:

GFKM DFKM 3+32 3+=2 ' 3+95 . !3+:7 !?+3= ' 3+39 . 3+82

GFKIU_HZ 3+39 8+37 ' 3+?7 . !3+?7 !?+78 ' 3+38 . 3+82

GHNYN !3+39 !8+?> ' 3+?3 . !3+:: !?+?> ' 3+3? . !3+8:

N_E@HKI 3+3? 3+93 ' 3+2> . !3+?? !?+9> ' 3+38 . 3+83

N_HK !3+39 !3+9> ' 3+2? . !3+3= !3+73 ' 3+9: . !3+5>

NJE@HKI 3+3? 3+95 ' 3+22 . !3+37 !8+9? ' 3+85 . 3+?:

NZ_HE@ !3+33 !3+89 ' 3+7> . !3+88 !8+52 ' 3+8? . !3+39

NYH@^ 3+8: 8+=8 ' 3+3> . 3+3> 3+=5 ' 3+95 . !8+95

LHAHNJH !3+88 !?+29 ' 3+38 . !3+9? !?+55 ' 3+38 . !3+?=

LF_IHK !3+39 !8+33 ' 3+:? . !3+37 !8+=2 ' 3+37 . !3+53

LHSHK !3+3? !3+9= ' 3+29 . !3+37 !8+32 ' 3+?> . !3+?>

DEK^H 3+33 3+38 ' 3+>> . !3+?> !?+23 ' 3+38 . 3+33

DF_EH _ESUO@N J 3+ ?8 8+ =9 ' 3+37 . !3+ 3? !3+ 85 ' 3+77 . 7+=?

@UWEAOFU_M !3+39 !?+39 ' 3+39 . !3+ 32 !8+ 29 ' 3+83 . !3+2:

AF_FJJF 3+83 8+57 ' 3+88 . !3+37 !8+:? ' 3+8> . 8+??AHIHMHZJH_ 3+33 3+37 ' 3+>9 . !3+52 !?+9: ' 3+3? . 3+38

AEWNJF !3+3? !3+:3 ' 3+=2 . !3+?9 !?+=8 ' 3+38 . !3+83

AH@N !3+83 !8+=3 ' 3+3> . !3+8: !8+73 ' 3+3= . !3+=>

AF\HAONXUE !3+39 !?+85 ' 3+3: . !3+ 32 !8+ 93 ' 3+82 . !3+27

AHU_NYHKNH !3+35 !?+33 ' 3+39 . !3+ ?8 !8+ >9 ' 3+35 . !3+?2

AHU_NYNUZ 3+35 8+?= ' 3+?8 . !3+?: !?+?7 ' 3+3? . 3+??

KNME_ !3+3? !3+73 ' 3+9? . !3+32 !8+38 ' 3+:8 . !3+:=

KNME_NH !3+3? !3+>: ' 3+:5 . !3+?3 !?+?3 ' 3+3: . !3+8?

KNJH_HMUH 3+3: 3+?9 ' 3+78 . !3+:8 !8+=2 ' 3+37 . 3+83

KEYGE_@HKIZ !3+38 !3+9= ' 3+29 . !3+ 89 !?+ 3? ' 3+39 . !3+37

KF_]H^ !3+3= !8+89 ' 3+?5 . !3+9: !8+>9 ' 3+35 . !3+82

KE] \EH@HKI 3+3= 8+:3 ' 3+8> . !3+82 !8+59 ' 3+8? . 3+99

SHKHAH !3+32 !3+>7 ' 3+:: . !3+?= !8+9= ' 3+89 . !3+?9

SE_U 3+8> 8+>8 ' 3+32 . !3+88 !3+25 ' 3+5? . 8+2>

SF_YUMH@ !3+38 !3+?8 ' 3+79 . !3+89 !8+>2 ' 3+35 . !3+37

SH_HMUH^ !3+39 !8+=: ' 3+37 . !3+83 !8+:8 ' 3+8> . !3+9?

_]HKIH !3+32 !8+:3 ' 3+8> . !3+89 !?+82 ' 3+3: . !3+9?

ZEKEMH@ 3+3= 8+?= ' 3+?8 . !3+5= !?+?: ' 3+3: . 3+8?

ZNKMHSF_E 3+38 3+=: ' 3+92 . !3+?8 !8+5> ' 3+88 . 3+32

E@ ZH@RHIF_ 3+38 3+9= ' 3+29 . !3+3= !8+:8 ' 3+8> . 3+83

Z]EIEK 3+33 3+:7 ' 3+=8 . !3+33 !3+89 ' 3+7> . 3+2=

JGHI 3+3? 3+23 ' 3+55 . !3+89 !8+57 ' 3+88 . 3+8:

YFMF !3+?9 !9+2? ' 3+33 . !3+55 !?+:7 ' 3+3? . !3+9:

YGHN@HKI !3+3: !3+57 ' 3+52 . !3+?= !?+=? ' 3+38 . !3+88

Y_NKNIHI HKI YFO 3+ 38 3+ :8 ' 3+=5 . !3+ 8: !8+ 53 ' 3+8: . 3+3>

YU_DE^ 3+:2 9+89 ' 3+33 . 3+8= 8+82 ' 3+?9 . !?+8=

YHK\HKNH 3+32 ?+?= ' 3+3? . !3+8? !8+:8 ' 3+8> . 3+58

UMHKIH !3+38 !3+?7 ' 3+=7 . !3+:3 !:+:9 ' 3+33 . !3+39

U_UMUH !3+3? !3+=? ' 3+9= . !3+37 !8+28 ' 3+88 . !3+87

U+Z+H+ !3+38 !3+2? ' 3+5: . !3+39 !8+5= ' 3+8? . !3+:9

REKE\UE@H 3+3: 3+7: ' 3+98 . !3+85 !?+99 ' 3+38 . 3+87

ZFUYG HB_NJH !3+39 !8+?5 ' 3+?8 . !3+ 85 !?+ ?8 ' 3+3: . !3+ ?2

Mrfup aehk 3+33 !3+85 ' 3+99 . !3+?3 !8+78 ' 3+39 . !3+37

@haoih!pehrsfk :3=+58 ' 3+33 . 592+?? ' 3+33 . ' 3+32.

Yhoè 5< Nkinvniuh` Jfuktry _esu`ts

?5


26/37

Hppekinx H

Shke` _fft Yests

Yge rst step ns testnkm bfr uknt rffts+ ]e keei uknt rfft oejhuse nk ejfkfayghvnkm nt aehks tght tge vhrnhoè ns kfk!sthtnfkhry, tgek trhksntfry sgfjds ghveperahkekt effiejts, hki ghvnkm afre uknt rffts 'n+e+ wgek tge nktemrhtnfk frierns gnmger. aehks tght tge sgfjd effiejt ns strfkmer hki bhster+

Nkntnh``y, phke` uknt rfft test uses tnae effiejts tf hjjfukt bfr jrfss sejtnfkhìepekiekjyQ

Exhapè fb hjjuau`htei ahrmnkh` snmknjhkje test pff`s snmknjhkje vh uesfb HIB t!tests hjrfss aeaoers fb phke` trehts h`` phrhaeters hs geterfmekefushafkm aeaoers+ Ohses tge test fk tge Sehrsfk `haoih sthtnstnj+

Kext fb ifnkm ie HIB test bfr ehjg aeaoer, jfapute t!sthtnstnj, tn , bfr G3 7=+ Jfnktemrhtnfk hki errfr jfrrejtnfkrepresekthtnfk, estnahtnfk, hki testnkm+ Ejfkfaetrnjh 55 '?.+

T2Q Evhk @hu, Wnhf!Gun Jgye, Jgee!Defkm Jgffkm, '?388.+ Mrfwtg jhush`ntyQ Ahiih`h, M+Z, ]u, Z+, 8>>>+ H jfaphrhtnve stuiy fb uknt rfft test wntgphke` ihth hki kew snapè test, Fxbfri Ou`ètnk Fb Ejfkfanjs Hki Zthtns!tnjs+

T83Q Ai+ Zghrnb Gfsshnk '?388.+ Shke` estnahtnfk bfr JF? eanssnfks, ekermyjfksuaptnfk, ejfkfanj mrfwtg, trhie fpekkess hki urohknzhtnfk fb kew`ynkiustrnh`nzei jfuktrnes+ Hsnhk Ekermy Zejurnty

T88Q Ahghaht '?38? 38.+ Mreekgfuse mhs eanssnfks, ekermy jfksuaptnfk hkiejfkfanj mrfwtg< H phke` jfnktemrhtnfk hkh`ysns brfa Jhkhinhk nkiustrnh`sejtfr perspejtnve+ E`sevner

T8?Q Ghan tfk, L+I+, 8>>9+ Ynae Zernes Hkh`ysns+ Srnkjetfk Uknversnty Sress,Kew Lersey, UZH+

T8:Q Gsnhf!Ynek Shf, Jgukm!Ankm Yshn, '?383.+ Ieterankhkts fb JF? eanssnfksnk O_NJs+ Zusthnkhoè Ekermy Yejgkf`fmnes 'NJZEY.

T89Q Gwhkm Lf!Gee, ff Zeukm!Gffk, ?38?+ Ekermy jfksuaptnfk, JF? eans!snfks, hki ejfkfanj mrfwtg< evniekje brfa Nkifkesnh+ Xuh`nty " Xuhktnty+

T85Q Na, D+Z+, Seshrhk, A+G+, Zgnk, ^+, ?33:+ Yestnkm bfr uknt rffts nk geterf!mekefus phke`s+ Lfurkh` fb Ejfkfaetrnjs 885+

T82Q @evnk, H+, @nk, J+B+, 8>>:+ Uknt _fft Yests nk Shke` Ihth< Kew _esu`ts,]frdnkm Shper+ Uknversnty fb Jh`nbfrknh, Zhk Inemf

:2


37/37

T8=Q Fztrud Nghk, Uiink Mhzn, '?38?.+ Jhush`nty hafkm jhrofk eanssnfks, ek!ermy jfksuaptnfk hki mrfwtg nk Nkinh+ Ejfkfanj _esehrjg ! Edfkfasdh

Nstrhznvhklh Rf`+ ?5':.

T87Q Seirfkn, S+, 8>>>+ Jrntnjh` vhùes bfr jfnktemrhtnfk tests nk geterfmekefusphke`s wntg au`tnpè remressfrs+ Fxbfri Ou`ètnk fb Ejfkfanjs hki Zthtnstnjs28, 25:2=3+

T8>Q Seirfkn, S+ ?333+ Bu``y!afinei F@Z bfr Geterfmekefus Jfnktemrhtei Shk!e`s, Hivhkjes nk Ejfkfaetrnjs, Rf`+ 85+

T?3Q Seirfkn, S+, ?337+ Nkbrhstrujture @fkm!ruk Effiejt fk Ser Jhpnth Nkjfae,Yge Ahkjgester Zjgff` Rf` =2 Kf+ 5+

T?8Q Seirfkn, S+, ?38:+ @ejture Kftes Bfr Shke` Jfnktemrhtnfk hki _e`htei Shke`Ynae Zernes Aetgfis+ Ofmft, Jf`faonh+

T??Q Seirfkn, S+, ?339+ Shke` jfnktemrhtnfk< hsyaptftnj hki knte shapè prfp!ertnes fb pffèi tnae sernes tests wntg hk hpp`njhtnfk tf tge SSS gypftgesns=2?=+

T?:Q Z+Z+ ]hkm, I+X+ \gfu, '?388 3>.+ JF? eanssnfks, ekermy jfksuaptnfk hkiejfkfanj mrfwtg nk Jgnkh< H phke` ihth hkh`ysns+ E`sevner

T?9Q Zuaaers, _+ hki Gestfk, H+ 8>>8+ Yge Sekk ]frì Yhoè 'Ahrd 5.< hkExphkiei Zet fb Nkterkhtnfkh` Jfaphrnsfks, 8>538>77, Xuhrter`y Lfurkh`fb Ejfkfanjs, Rf`+ 832+

T?5Q Umur Zfythsh, _hahzhk Zhrno, Orhièy Y+ Ewnkmj, '?33= 35 85.+ Ekermyjfksuaptnfk, nkjfae, hki jhrofk eanssnfks nk tge Ukntei Zthtes+ Ejf`fmnjh`

Ejfkfanjs

T?2Q Rnsgh` Jghkir Lhukdy '?388 3:.+ Yge JF? eanssnfks!nkjfae kexus< Evn!iekje brfa rnjg jfuktrnes+ Ekermy Sf`njy+ E`sevner

:=

implications of co2 in gdp

Documents