implementasi metode ensemble neural network untuk model
TRANSCRIPT
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Implementasi Metode Ensemble Neural Network untuk Model Prediksi Kebangkrutan
Penyusun: Nuru Aini – 5108100017 Dosen Pembimbing: Isye Arieshanti, S. Kom., M. Phil. Yudhi Purwananto, S. Kom., M. Kom.
(Kata Kunci: Boosting, Bagging, JST, Prediksi Kebangkrutan)
PRESENTASI TUGAS AKHIR – KI091391
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Materi
Latar Belakang
Tujuan
Permasalahan
Pengembangan Perangkat Lunak
Kesimpulan
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LATAR BELAKANG
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Latar Belakang
Pengambilan keputusan finansial
Model prediksi kebangkrutan
Ensemble neural network
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TUJUAN
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Tujuan
Implementasi
Ensemble Neural Network
Prediksi Kebangkrutan
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PERMASALAHAN
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Permasalahan
Implementasi
Uji model
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PENGEMBANGAN PERANGKAT LUNAK
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Studi Literatur
Desain dan Implementasi Uji Coba
Pengembangan Perangkat Lunak
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Desain dan Implementasi Uji Coba Studi
Literatur
Ensemble Neural Network
JST (Jaringan Saraf Tiruan)
Bagging (Bootstrap
Aggregating)
Boosting
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Jaringan Saraf Tiruan (JST)
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Bagging (Bootstrap Aggregating)
D Data latih asli
D1 D2 Dn-1 Dn
Membuat n data latih baru dengan sampling with replacement
…
C1 C2 Cn-1 Cn … Membuat n model klasifikasi
C* Menggabungkan (voting) hasil prediksi
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Boosting
D Data latih asli
D1 D2 Dn-1 Dn
Membuat n data latih baru dengan weighted sampling with replacement
…
C1 C2 Cn-1 Cn … Membuat maksimal n model klasifikasi
C* Menggabungkan (weighted voting) hasil prediksi
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PERANCANGAN PERANGKAT LUNAK
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Data Masukan: Data Wieslaw
Jenis Kelas
Jumlah Kelas
Positif
128
Negatif
112
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Data Keluaran
Jenis Kelas
Definisi
Positif
Bangkrut
Negatif
Tidak bangkrut
• Data keluaran latih: model klasifikasi • Data keluaran uji: hasil prediksi
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IMPLEMENTASI
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Proses Bagging
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Tentukan nilai B
Lakukan iterasi
Bentuk sampel bootstrap
Latih menggunakan JST
Apakah semua data sudah dilatih?
Dapatkan Cb
Apakah b = B ?
Prediksi
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Proses Boosting
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Tentukan nilai awal wb(i) = 1/n
Tentukan nilai B
Lakukan iterasi
Latih menggunakan JST
Hitung nilai εb dan αb
Perbarui wb+1 dan lakukan normalisasi
Apakah semua data sudah dilatih?
Dapatkan Cb
Apakah b = B ?
Prediksi
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Antarmuka
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Studi Literatur
Desain dan Implementasi
Perbandingan beberapa metode
Perbandingan nilai parameter B
Uji Coba
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Uji coba dengan perbandingan beberapa metode No.
Jenis Metode
JST Bagging Boosting
1 70.00 78.33 73.33
2 70.00 79.58 73.75
3 70.00 78.33 73.33
4 70.00 80.00 72.50
5 70.00 78.33 72.08
6 70.00 78.33 73.75
7 70.00 76.25 75.00
8 70.00 75.00 72.08
9 70.00 78.33 71.25
10 70.00 80.42 73.75
Rata Rata 70.00 78.29 73.08
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Uji coba dengan perbandingan nilai B untuk metode Bagging
No. Nilai B
10 15
1 76.67 78.33
2 77.50 79.58
3 78.75 78.33
4 76.67 80.00
5 78.75 78.33
6 78.75 78.33
7 78.75 76.25
8 77.08 75.00
9 77.92 78.33
10 77.08 80.42
Rata Rata 77.79 78.29
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Uji coba dengan perbandingan nilai B untuk metode Boosting
No. Nilai B
10 15
1 72.50 73.33
2 72.92 73.75
3 72.08 73.33
4 72.50 72.50
5 72.08 72.08
6 73.75 73.75
7 74.58 75.00
8 72.92 72.08
9 70.42 71.25
10 73.75 73.75
Rata Rata 72.75 73.08
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KESIMPULAN
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Ensemble Neural Network
Prediksi Kebangkrutan
Jenis Metode Akurasi
JST 70.00 %
Bagging 78.29%
Boosting 73.08%
Hasil
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TERIMA KASIH
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DAFTAR PUSTAKA
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Daftar Pustaka • Kim, M. J. & Kang, D. K. (2010). Ensemble with Neural Networks for
Bankruptcy Prediction. Expert System with Applications, XXXVII, 3373-3379.
• Wieslaw, P. (2004). Application of Discrete Predicting Structures in An Early Warning Expert System for Financial Distress. Tourism Management.
• Mitchell, T. M. (1997). Machine Learning. Singapore: McGraw-Hill Companies Inc.
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Jaringan Saraf Tiruan (JST)
• Forward Propagation
Activation Function:
• Backpropagation
( ) )(exp11
xxSig−+
=
)kyk)(tky(kykδ −−= 1
ihokkhwkhw ηδ+=
∑∈
⋅−=keluarank
kkhwhyhyh δδ )1(
ixhihwihw ηδ+=
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Sampling with Replacement
Data latih asli 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Bagging (1) 7 8 9 8 2 5 9 2 1
Bagging (2) 1 4 9 1 2 3 2 7 3
Bagging (3) 1 8 5 9 5 5 9 6 3