Air Force Weather

IMPACTS:IMPACTS:

TROPICAL CYCLONES and their effects TROPICAL CYCLONES and their effects

on the Department of Defense and otherson the Department of Defense and others

HQ AFWA/XOGMHQ AFWA/XOGM

Typhoon Omar (15W) , Guam, August 1992Typhoon Omar (15W) , Guam, August 1992

Air Force Weather

GeneralGeneral• WindsWinds

• Sea State / SurfSea State / Surf

• Storm surgeStorm surge

• PrecipitationPrecipitation

• Destructive potentialDestructive potential

• Loss of Life Loss of Life

TROPICAL CYCLONESTROPICAL CYCLONES

DoDDoD•Resource ProtectionResource Protection

• MissionMission

• AviationAviation• Low Level Wind ShearLow Level Wind Shear

• Naval ShippingNaval Shipping

• Costs Costs

• Position/ForecastPosition/Forecast

Air Force Weather

Wind Damage:

• Small Objects become missiles.

• Great threat to personnel safety

• Damage to living quarters, military and civilian infrastructure

WINDSCourtesy: Dr. Steve Businger

Univ. Hawaii/Manoa

Hurricane Iniki, Hawaii, 1992 Hurricane Iniki, Hawaii, 1992

Air Force WeatherHurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999Hurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999

Air Force Weather

• Difficult conditions for vessels at sea.

• Beach Erosion, and difficulty in rescue operations

SEA STATE/SURF

Courtesy: Dr. Steve Businger

Univ. Hawaii/Manoa

Air Force Weather

Large “mound of water”.

• Most Deaths occur in Storm surge

• Damage to Low lying areas near coast

• Extensive flooding

STORM SURGE

Air Force WeatherHurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999Hurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999

Air Force Weather

Large “mound of water”.

• Most Deaths occur in Storm surge

• Damage to Low lying areas near coast

• Extensive flooding

STORM SURGE

Air Force Weather

Large “mound of water”.

• Most Deaths occur in Storm surge

• Damage to Low lying areas near coast

• Extensive flooding

STORM SURGE

Air Force Weather

Large “mound of water”.

• Most Deaths occur in Storm surge

• Damage to Low lying areas near coast

• Extensive flooding

STORM SURGE

Air Force Weather

• Extensive flooding over inland areas

• Large Loss of life ; no protection

• Dramatic Economic impact; Humanitarian relief needed

PRECIPITATION

Air Force WeatherHurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999Hurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999

Air Force WeatherHurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999Hurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999

Air Force WeatherHurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999Hurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999

Air Force WeatherHurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999Hurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999

Appropriate name for this street…..Appropriate name for this street…..

Air Force Weather

• Extensive flooding over inland areas

• Large Loss of life ; no protection

• Dramatic Economic impact; Humanitarian relief needed

PRECIPITATION

Air Force Weather

Destructive Potential

Hurricane Iniki, Hawaii, August 1992Hurricane Iniki, Hawaii, August 1992

Air Force Weather

Destructive Potential

Hurricane Bob, Rhode Island, August 1991Hurricane Bob, Rhode Island, August 1991

Air Force Weather

Destructive Potential

Hurricane Bob, Rhode Island, August 1991Hurricane Bob, Rhode Island, August 1991

Air Force Weather

Destructive Potential

Hurricane Bob, Rhode Island, August 1991Hurricane Bob, Rhode Island, August 1991

Air Force Weather

Destructive Potential

Hurricane Bob, Rhode Island, August 1991Hurricane Bob, Rhode Island, August 1991

Air Force Weather

Destructive Potential

Typhoon Omar (15W), Guam, August 1992Typhoon Omar (15W), Guam, August 1992

Air Force Weather

Destructive Potential

Note car turned upside-downNote car turned upside-down

Typhoon Omar (15W) August 1992Typhoon Omar (15W) August 1992Typhoon Omar (15W), Guam, August 1992Typhoon Omar (15W), Guam, August 1992

Air Force Weather

Destructive Potential

Note car turned upside-downNote car turned upside-down

Air Force Weather

Destructive Potential

Typhoon Omar (15W) August 1992Typhoon Omar (15W) August 1992Typhoon Omar (15W), Guam, August 1992Typhoon Omar (15W), Guam, August 1992

Air Force Weather

Destructive Potential

Typhoon Omar (15W) August 1992Typhoon Omar (15W) August 1992Typhoon Omar (15W), Guam, August 1992Typhoon Omar (15W), Guam, August 1992

Air Force WeatherHurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999Hurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999

Air Force WeatherHurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999Hurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999

Air Force Weather

Loss of LifeIn just four Tropical Cyclones from 1999, the following happened:

Dead: Nearly 300 peopleInjured: Nearly 700 peopleDamagedHomes: Nearly 400 HomesHomelessPeople: Hundreds

* TC Vance, Typhoons Olga, Bart, & Sam

Air Force Weather

Loss of Life The 10 Deadliest Hurricanes In The United States 1900-1996

RANK HURRICANE YEAR CATEGORY DEATHS1. TX (Galveston) 1900 4 8000+2. FL (Lake Okeechobee) 1928 4 18363. FL (Keys)/S. TX 1919 4 600#4. NEW ENGLAND 1938 3* 6005. FL (Keys) 1935 5 4086. AUDREY (SW LA/TX) 1957 4 3907. NE U.S. 1944 3* 390@8. LA (Grand Isle) 1909 4 3509. LA (New Orleans) 1915 4 27510. TX (Galveston) 1915 4 275

Air Force Weather

Loss of LifeTropical Cyclone (05B)

Worst cyclone to hit India since 1971

Air Force Weather

Loss of Life

Corpses pile up in India cyclone; disease and hunger stalk survivors (CNN, 4NOV99)

Tropical Cyclone (05B)

Air Force Weather

Department of Defense•Resource Protection/Mission

• Aviation•Cross winds

• Naval Shipping

• Costs

• Position/Forecast

Air Force WeatherHurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999Hurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999

Air Force Weather

Learmonth Solar ObservatoryOperated by Detachment 1 of 55th

Space Weather Squadron

The mission of the Learmonth Solar Observatoryis to analyze optical and radio emissions from thesun and monitor the near-earth spaceenvironmentDet 1 operates a 10” diameter optical refractingtelescope to observe the surface of the sun atseveral wavelengths in the visible spectrum.Det 1 operates a 28’ diameter parabolic radioantenna and two fixed semi-bicone antennas tomonitor radio emissions from the sun. The 28’antenna must be stowed during sustained windsof 40 knots or gusts to 45 knots.

Latitude: 22.2333° SLongitude: 114.08333° EAltitude : 10.9 m

Air Force Weather

Tropical Cyclone Vance (30S)

Learmonth needed advanced warning before Vance hitJTWC provided them with a 72 hours heads up

Air Force Weather

Resource ProtectionThe eye passage of Typhoon Omar (15W)from August 1992

This storm impactedFive major military installations on Guam,shutting down all normal operations

Thus the DoD missionis impeded…..

. NCTAMS

Air Force Weather

Resource Protection

The eye wall passage of Typhoon Omar (15W)from August 1992

The onset of gale force winds:Typhoon Omar (15W)from August 1992

These photos taken from the samelocation on Andersen AB, Guam

Air Force Weather

Aviation HazardsAviation HazardsAircraft operating near a tropical cyclone will be subjected to significant Low Level Wind Shear.

Also, some aircraft cannot take off if the crosswinds over an airstrip exceed a certain value. In the overwhelming majority of cases, 35 knot winds (tropicalgale wind envelope) exceeds this threshhold for militaryaircraft (Can’t take off, can’t launch helicopter forrescue operations).

These turbulent conditions can become a very dangeroushazard to equipment and personnel safety.

Air Force Weather

Air Force Weather

Air Force Weather

Aviation HazardsAviation Hazards

Air Force Weather

Aviation HazardsAviation Hazards

Air Force Weather

Aviation HazardsAviation Hazards

Air Force Weather

Aviation HazardsAviation Hazards

Air Force Weather

2 dead, 208injured in ChinaAirlines crash(CNN, 22AUG99)

Typhoon Sam (16W)

Air Force Weather

Taiwan says 65 dead in Singapore Airlines crashTaiwan says 65 dead in Singapore Airlines crash

DATELINE: October 31, 2000 -- Updated 06:14 p.m. EST, 2314 GMT

(From CNN.com)

Taiwanese officials say that at least 65 people died when Los Angles-bound SingaporeAirlines Flight 006 crashed during takeoff instormy weather in Taipei late Tuesday. JamesBoyd, an airline spokesman in Los Angeles,said that according to the latest informationavailable from the crash site, 75 people onboard the Boeing 747-400 were unaccounted for.

Air Force Weather

Taiwan says 65 dead in Singapore Airlines crashTaiwan says 65 dead in Singapore Airlines crash

DATELINE: October 31, 2000 -- Updated 06:14 p.m. EST, 2314 GMT

(From CNN.com)

CNN Meteorologist Orelon Sydney reportsthe weather at the time of takeoff "was theequivalent of a Category 2 hurricaneCategory 2 hurricane makinglandfall on the island. Shortly after the crash,bands of bad weather extending outward frombands of bad weather extending outward from

Typhoon XangsaneTyphoon Xangsane were creating winds were creating windsmeasured from 40 to 73 mph, Sydney said. measured from 40 to 73 mph, Sydney said.

Air Force Weather

747 Aircraft CRASHES …..THEN BURNS…..747 Aircraft CRASHES …..THEN BURNS…..

……..THE AFTERMATH…....THE AFTERMATH…..

Singapore Airlines Singapore Airlines crashcrash

Air Force Weather

Aviation Hazards

Aircraft operating near a tropical cyclone will be subjected to significant Low Level Wind Shear.

These turbulent conditions can become a very dangeroushazard to equipment and personnel safety.

Air Force Weather

Aviation Hazards

Aircraft operating near a tropical cyclone will be subjected to significant Low Level Wind Shear.

These turbulent conditions can become a very dangeroushazard to equipment and personnel safety.

Air Force Weather

Aviation Hazards

Hurricane Andrew, Homestead AFB FL, August 1992Hurricane Andrew, Homestead AFB FL, August 1992

Air Force Weather

Aviation Hazards

Hurricane Andrew, Homestead AFB FL, August 1992Hurricane Andrew, Homestead AFB FL, August 1992

Air Force Weather

Aviation Hazards

Typhoon Omar (15W) August 1992Typhoon Omar (15W) August 1992Typhoon Omar (15W), Guam, August 1992Typhoon Omar (15W), Guam, August 1992

Air Force Weather

Aviation Hazards

Note the wooden boarddriven into this aircraft by force of Typhoon Omar’swinds.

Air Force Weather

Naval Shipping

Navy Escort vessels and Aircraft carriers are very vulnerable to the severe winds and sea state of a hurricane/typhoon.

These hazardous conditions can even sink some ofsmaller vessels…..

Air Force Weather

Naval Shipping

Navy Escort vessels and Aircraft carriers are very vulnerable to the severe winds and sea state of a hurricane/typhoon.

These hazardous conditions can even sink some ofsmaller vessels…..

Air Force Weather

Naval Shipping

Navy Escort vessels and Aircraft carriers are very vulnerable to the severe winds and sea state of a hurricane/typhoon.

These hazardous conditions can even sink some ofsmaller vessels…..

Air Force Weather

Air Force Weather

Air Force Weather

Air Force Weather

From the Navy Times, Sept 2000

Air Force Weather

In following Tropical Cyclones from 1999, the following costs were realized by DoD:

Storm COST:Typhoon Olga $200,000Typhoon Bart $5.8 Million

COSTSCOSTS

*** Courtesy Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Air Force Weather

*** Courtesy Tropical Prediction Center/ National Hurricane Center

Air Force Weather

Air Force Weather

Navy Yokosuka

Navy Guam

Navy Sasebo

Navy Okinawa

Air Force Weather

US Army Kwajalein

Kadena AB

Osan/Kunsan AB

Yokota AB

Andersen AFB

Air Force Weather

Air Force Weather

Cost ConsiderationsCost Considerations

Air Force Weather

Air Force Weather

Air Force Weather

Air Force Weather

Air Force Weather

Storm Track/ForecastStorm Track/Forecast

The importance of an accurate fix:

“Why do we have both JTWC and AFWAperforming Tropical Cyclone fixes?

A “fix” is a Center Position and Intensity estimate

Air Force Weather

The importance of an accurate fix:

Which one should you pick?

Does it really matter?

Air Force Weather

Air Force Weather

If you pick “A”, Guamis threatened…..

But not if you pick “B”

Air Force Weather

If you pick “A”, Guam will see gale force winds in 24 hrs…...

Gale winds here in green

Air Force Weather

This could be the difference between getting aircraft & ships sortied (evacuated) on-time or too late!

So the choice matters!

If you pick “B”, Guam will not see gales.

Air Force Weather

Questions?Questions?