impacts of climate change on the sheries at northwestern ......case studies 1! pacific herring and...

© National Film Board of Canada

© Max Bakken © Carly Wignes

Impacts of climate change on the !sheries at Northwestern coast of BC :

Impacts, resilience and adaptation potential

Lauren Weatherdon Changing Ocean Research Unit Research Assistant, NF-UBC Nereus Program

Dr. William W.L. Cheung Director, Changing Ocean Research Unit Co-Director, NF-UBC Nereus Program

Dr. Yoshitaka Ota Co-Director, NF-UBC Nereus Program Senior Research Fellow

Dr. Rashid Sumaila Professor, Fisheries Economic Research Unit, UBC

Dr. Vicky W.Y. Lam Postdoctoral research fellow Sea Around Us & Nereus Program, UBC

Northwestern BC coastal adapta2on workshop (21 October 2015)

Climate change impact on marine resources

§  ↑ Sea temperature; §  ↑ acidifica2on; §  Δ ocean current paDern; §  Δ salinity; §  retreat of sea ice; §  ↑ coastal hypoxic & oxygen min. zone;

§  ↑ sea level.

Physical change in the ocean

• Physiology; • Growth; & • Body size.

INDIVIDUAL

• Distribu2on; • Abundance; & • Recruitment.

POPULATION

• Species composi2on; • Invasion/ex2nc2on. COMMUNITY

• Produc2vity; & • Species interac2on. ECOSYSTEM

Biological / ecological change in the ocean

Impact to fisheries Historical response Background Impact to NW coast of

BC Implica2on

Cheung et al., Glob. Change Biol., 2010; as visualized in the IPCC Report (2014).

CHANGE IN MAXIMUM CATCH POTENTIAL (2051-‐2060 COMPARED TO 2001-‐2010, SRES A1B)

<-‐50% -‐21 to -‐50% -‐6 to -‐20% -‐1 to -‐5% No data 0 to 4% 5 to 19% 20 to 49% 50 to 100% >100%

Climate change, marine biodiversity, and fisheries

Evidences of CC impact Historical response Background Impact to NW coast of

BC Adapta2on

Outline

• Background; • Evidence of the impacts of climate change on fisheries;

• Projected impact on Northwest coast of BC;

• Historical responses; • Adapta2on; • Recommenda2on.


BC Implica2on

Evidences of climate change impacts on fisheries in this region

• Coast-‐wide hake biomass surveys indicate that their northern limit has extended during the 1990s due to warm temperatures;

• Reappearance of sardines in BC waters; recently, collapse of sardines due to overfishing and CC;

•  Increase in SST results in decline of eulachon biomass (Moody, 2008);

•  Smaller salmon size due to ocean acidifica2on; • Warm Blob; • Algal boom threatens gillnet fleet.


BC Implica2on

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125°0'W

125°0'W

130°0'W

130°0'W

135°0'W

135°0'W

55°0

'N

55°0

'N

50°0

'N

50°0

'N

0 200 400100 300KilometersF

!! Sample communities

!! First Nation communities

Sample domestic fishing areas

First Nations' domestic fishing areas

BC's exclusive economic zone (EEZ)

British Columbia

Climate change, marine biodiversity, and fisheries

~100 First Nations

12 First Nations sampled

7 treaty groups sampled

Evidences of CC impact Historical response Background Impact to NW coast of BC Implica2on

TunaHalibut

EulachonFlounder and sole

ChitonsShrimp and prawns

UrchinsMussels

RoundfishSalmon

CrabsDogfish and skates

HerringTrout

RockfishBarnacles

ScallopsSea cucumbers

LingcodSculpinsOysters

ClamsSturgeonGreenling

AbalonePerch

Sardines

Latitudinal shift (km decade Թñ)

Func

tiona

l gro

up

or s

peci

es

Model

RCP 2.6

RCP 8.5

N

ï� 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Low-emission High-emissionScenarios

TunaHalibut

EulachonFlounder and sole

ChitonsShrimp and prawns

UrchinsMussels

RoundfishSalmon

CrabsDogfish and skates

HerringTrout

RockfishBarnacles

ScallopsSea cucumbers

LingcodSculpinsOysters

ClamsSturgeonGreenling

AbalonePerch

Sardines

Latitudinal shift (km decade Թñ)

Func

tiona

l gro

up

or s

peci

es

Model

RCP 2.6

RCP 8.5

N

ï� 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Latitudinal range shifts within BC’s EEZ


125°0'W130°0'W135°0'W

55°0'N

50°0'N

125°0'W130°0'W135°0'W

55°0'N

50°0'N

Species richness (2000)

0

1 - 10

11 - 2

0

21 - 3

0

31 - 4

0

41 - 5

0

51 - 6

0

61 - 7

0

71 - 8

0

81 - 9

0

91 - 1

00

0 150 30075Kilometers


-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Number of species lost or gained by 2050

(b)

(a)125°0'W130°0'W135°0'W

55°0'N

50°0'N

125°0'W130°0'W135°0'W

55°0'N

50°0'N

Species richness (2000)

0

1 - 10

11 - 2

0

21 - 3

0

31 - 4

0

41 - 5

0

51 - 6

0

61 - 7

0

71 - 8

0

81 - 9

0

91 - 1

00



-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Number of species lost or gained by 2050

(b)

(a)

Impacts to biodiversity within British Columbia’s waters

World map adapted from Wikipedia.


Pacific herringGreen sea urchin

SalmonPrawn and shrimp

Red sea urchinSea cucumberPacific halibut

RockfishGeoduck and horse clam

Sablefish Groundfish

Pacific razor clamCrab

Intertidal clam Heiltsuk intertidal clam

Pacific sardine

−50 −40 −30 −20 −10 0 10 20 30 40Change in relative catch potential (%)

Com

mer

cial

Fis

hery

Scenarios RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5

Change in rela:ve catch poten:al (%)

2003: ~74% of landed revenue; 2050: Revenue reduced by ~90%.









Pacific sardine


Com

mer

cial

Fis

hery









Pacific sardine


Com

mer

cial

Fis

hery

Scenarios RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5Impacts to First Nations’ commercial catch









Pacific sardine


Com

mer

cial

Fis

hery


Change in rela:ve catch poten:al (%)


2012: Hold 50% of sardine licenses and catch alloca2ons. 2050: Manila and liDleneck clams expected to remain neutral or increase.








Pacific sardine


Com

mer

cial

Fis

hery

Scenarios RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5Impacts to First Nations’ commercial catch


-25.8%

-25.8%

-21.1%

-15.2%

-7.9%

-6.6%

-5.8% -4.2%

-6.6%

-27.8%

-27.8%-27.4%

-22.0%

-8.2%

-4.9%

-7.9%

High-emission

Low-emission

Scenario


Percentage change in catch poten:al at different communi:es under climate change

The impact of climate change on BC’s staple seafood supply & Prices

% change in catch poten:al

% change in price per tonne

Sockeye salmon -‐21% +21

Chum salmon -‐10% +10

Sablefish -‐15% +11

•  10 staple seafood spp in BC, the net change in price caused by climate change could cost us up to $110 million a year


Outline

• Background; • Evidence of the impacts of climate change on fisheries;

• Projected impact on Northwest coast of BC;

• Historical responses; • Adapta2on; • Recommenda2on.


Traditional v. “Western” scientific fisheries management

First Nations’ traditional strategy or tool Similar “Western” methods

Selective fishing Targeted fisheries and size-selective gear

Goal-oriented harvesting Quota-based harvests

Spatial management, or “area licensing” Limited entry

Clam gardens Mariculture

Monitoring Monitoring; stock assessments

Seasonal migrations and rotational harvests Rotational or seasonal closures

© Grant Callegari and the Hakai Beach Institute


How have coastal First Na@ons historically responded to change within marine ecosystems?

•  Employed a variety of resource management strategies, such as tradi:onal clam beds, spa:al management, and goal-‐oriented harvests, based on tradi2onal knowledge;

•  Reinforced sustainable management systems and increased resilience through social ins:tu:ons;

•  Established legal frameworks for joint-‐management of resources.

Backround Impact to fisheries Historical response

Impact to NW coast of BC Adapta2on

Case studies

1 Pacific herring and herring spawn-on-kelp fisheries -  Conflicts with other stakeholders; -  Instead of re-opening, it’s better to establish Joint-

management agreements & maintaining commercial herring roe closures.

2 Intertidal clam fisheries

3 Salmon fisheries

Backround Impact to fisheries Historical response

Impact to NW coast of BC Implica2on

How might traditional !sheries management strategies and knowledge be used to respond to climate change?

2b: Climate-resilient pathways Case study #1: Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii)

EEZ

WCVI

Strait of

Georgia

Central

Coast

Haida

Gwaii

North

Coast

ï�� ï�� ï�� ï�� ï�� ï�� Change in relative catch potential (%) for Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii)

125°0'W

125°0'W

130°0'W

130°0'W

135°0'W

135°0'W

55°0'N

55°0'N

50°0'N

50°0'N

45°0'N

45°0'N

0 175 35087.5Kilometers

P a c i f i c O c e a n

28 to 49% cumula2ve decline projected coastwide for herring.

1: IMPACTS TO FISHERIES? CONTEXT 2a: HISTORICAL RESPONSES? 2b: PATHWAYS? IMPLICATIONS

- First Nations Leadership Council (2006)

1.   Traditional clam bed mariculture; and

2. Resource-sharing agreements.

Case study #2: Intertidal clams

(Augus2ne and Dearden 2014; Groesbeck 2014)

. . .if First Nations develop their own systems for sharing, it provides an opportunity to design appropriate management systems and address province-wide issues.

“ ”

4 x butter clams 2 x littleneck clams


Case study #3: Salmon

17 -‐ 29%

34 -‐ 44% decline in Chinook and pink salmon, with highly variable es2mates for sockeye (-‐4 to -‐37%).

3 -‐ 13% decline in coho and chum salmon along the North and Central Coasts, with poten2al to mi2gate declines.

© Putman et al., Curr. Biol.

cumula2ve decline in catch poten2al projected coastwide for all salmon.

Examples of successful joint-management frameworks: •  Nisga’a Fisheries Program: monitoring and

management of local salmon stocks;

•  Nuu-chah-nulth Tribal Council’s involvement in managing stocks on the west coast of Vancouver Island;

•  Skeena Fisheries Commission; and the •  Fraser River Aboriginal Fisheries Secretariat.


IMPLICATIONS

Challenges and opportunities for conservation and management

CHALLENGES

Increased or new harvest opportunities through range shifts;

OPPORTUNITIES Mitigation opportunities through Indigenous and traditional knowledge and joint-management; and

Projected declines suggest increased competition between fishers; Stocks likely to face multiple environmental and anthropogenic pressures, requiring effective approaches to manage for multiple stressors and competing stakeholders; and Latitudinal trends suggest an unequal distribution of benefits and impacts.

Legal precedents exist supporting integration of Indigenous knowledge and management.


Poten@al adapta@on strategies:

• Resource sharing agreements;

•  Local mariculture;

•  Joint-‐management frameworks.


Recommenda@ons: •  Federal & provincial governments need to work with interna2onal community;

•  Government needs to eliminate harmful subsidies;

•  Policy and management regimes need to be put in place;

•  All stakeholders work together to reduce oil spills and pollu2on;

•  Reduce carbon footprint;

•  Consumer behaviours need to modify for climate change & challenges.


§ Lauren Weatherdon, Dr. Rashid Sumaila, Dr. William Cheung, Dr. Yoshitaka Ota, Megan Moody

§ Fraser Basin Council

§ Vancity

§ Nereus Program

§  Sea Around Us, Fisheries Economic Research Unit

Acknowledgement

Contact: [email protected]

© Putman et al., Curr. Biol.

impacts of climate change on the sheries at northwestern ......case studies 1! pacific herring and...

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