Impacts Assessment of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and It's

implications on the Nile Basin Initiative

By: Biniyam Sishah

Back Ground

• River : Nile

• Length = 6,650 km

• Basin area = 3.4E6 km2 [1/10th of continent]

• Average flow = 2,830 m3 /s 2% of Amazon

15% of the Mississippi

• Main Tributaries:

White Nile: 805 km and shares 15% of total flow

Blue Nile: 1460 miles and shares 85 % of total flow

• The two major Nile’s meet at Khartoum, Sudan

• Nile riparian Countries:

• During Wet periods on July and August blue Nilecontributes 70%, the Atbara 20% and white Nile 10%.

• In dry periods early of may almost all the flow comesfrom white Nile

• Lake Nasser has huge storage capacity of nearly168Km3 in wet season, but evaporates 10% of its volumeevery year.

• Nile for Egypt is the Source of food and transport

• Before the completion of the Aswan High Dam, thelarge quantities of silt washed down from the richhighlands of Ethiopia were deposited by thefloodwaters in Egypt, where the fertility of the riverinelands was maintained over the centuries, despiteintensive cultivation.

Without the Nile there wouldn’t have been any Egypt

Political Conflicts over the Nile

Intensified during the colonial era when England tried to increase agricultural productivity in the delta.

:

1902: King of Ethiopia Agreed to consult British on any planned project on the blue Nile

1929: Exclusive agreement between Egypt and Sudan

48Mm3 and all dry season flow to Egypt, 4Mm3 to Sudan

1959: Exclusive agreement between Egypt and Sudan

55.5Mm3 & all dry season flow to Egypt, 18.5Mm3 for Sudan

Construction of Aswan, Roseires, Khashm Al-girba Dams were also agreed up on

No-one knew how much of the water was actually coming form Ethiopia.99%

Ethiopia's response was engaging in plans to launch major projects on the

blue Nile.

No riparian countries were notified in all cases

1966: Helsinki agreement of equitable share was proposed

1970’s:Egypts plan to construct a canal that diverts 10% of the Nile’s water

1999:Nile Basin Initiative was Established to address all riparian countries

Ethiopia rejected

the proposal

1974:The Great Famine of Ethiopia was a rigging bell for change

Nile Basin Initiative (NBI)Is a partnership among the Nile riparian states

Main Objectives:

Developing a sustainable and equitable win-win water gain policy and in doing so promoting

economic integration

NILE BASIN INITIATIVE STRUCTURE

The Nile Secretariat

[NILE-SEC]

Eastern Nile council of

Minsters [ENCOM]

Nile Technical Advisory

Committee [NILE- TAC]

Strategic Planning and

Management Department

Water Resources

Management Department

Nile Council of Ministers

[NILE-COM]

Finance and Administration

Department

Eastern Nile subsidiary Action

program Team[ENSAPT]

Eastern Nile Technical

Regional Office [ENTRO]

Nile Equatorial Lakes Council of

Minsters [NELCOM]

Nile Equatorial Lakes Technical

Advisory Committee [NELTAC]

Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary

Action Program CU[NELSAP-CU]

Eastern Nile council of

Minsters [ENCOM]

Eastern Nile subsidiary Action

program Team[ENSAPT]

Eastern Nile Technical

Regional Office [ENTRO]

Nile Equatorial Lakes Council of

Minsters [NELCOM]

Nile Equatorial Lakes Technical

Advisory Committee [NELTAC]

Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary

Action Program CU[NELSAP-CU]

Strategic Planning and

Management Department

Water Resources

Management Department

Finance and Administration

Department

Establishment and

Confidence buildingInstitutional

Strengthening

Consolidation

and Delivering

Institutional Framework:

1999 2008 2012 2016

2011 :construction of the Great r

Renaissance dam of Ethiopia was

announced :

2010: Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda,

Burundi and Tanzania signed a

cooperative framework agreement

seeking more water share.

Egypt and Sudan

Rejected the proposal

and construction plan

NBI was conceived as a

transitional institution until

the Cooperative Framework

Agreement (CFA)

negotiations were finalized

and a permanent institution is

created.

The Great Renaissance Dam of Ethiopia

Purpose = Only Hydro-electric production

Storage = 70 Mm3 [twice the size of lake Tana]

Power production = 6000 Mw of Energy

Total cost = $5Billion [10% of Ethiopian gross product]

= most of it covered by Ethiopia

After completion

Sell energy to eastern African countries

cover most of the countries power demand

Positive impacts proposed by Ethiopia

Reduce evaporation from lake Nasser

Increases water flow downstream

Source of hydroelectric power for Eastern Africa

Reduces flood risk downstream

Reduces siltation downstream

If Ethiopia cannot use its

elevation and seasonal rains

for Hydro-electric power and

irrigation, what is it to do?

Negative Impacts raised by Egypt and Sudan

What will happen while reservoir is filling?

25% flow reduction

for 3 years or more is

expected? When water fails in the Ethiopian highlands

what will happen?

What if Ethiopia starts using the Dam for

water consumption purposes

Impact of climate change on the Nile river

By 2020, 75 -250 million

people can be exposed to

increased water stress

How will the Nile impact due to population

growth after 20 years??

It is estimated: both nations will surpass 100

million and population of the whole basin will

collectively reach 600 million.

The Grand renaissance dam poses a question as

basic as water itself:

What Should NBI learn from predecessor Initiatives

Previously active initiatives on the Nile basin:

Hydromet project 1967

Undugu from 1983 to 1992

Technical Cooperation Committee for the Promotion of

Development and Environmental Protection of the Basin

(TECCONILE) in 1993

Why they fail to succeed

lack of inclusivity

Did not anchor the cooperation effort in a comprehensive

institutional setting and within the ambit of a Shared Vision

What needs to be done now?

Need to strengthen cooperation b/n riparian nations and ties with

other experienced organizations working in the essence of

Integrated water resources Management. E.g. The European

Water Framework Directives approach to Integrated River

Basin management

This is the 21st century, it should not be

about who owns the Nile anymore, we

need to promote equitable sharing of

our trans-boundary water Resources and

focus all attentions in eradicating

poverty.