impact of sustainable intensification on landscapes and livelihoods (sill) robert richardson, laura...
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Impact of Sustainable Intensification on Landscapes and Livelihoods (SILL)
Robert Richardson, Laura Schmitt Olabisi, & Kurt WaldmanMichigan State University
Africa RISING East and Southern Africa Annual Review and Planning Meeting15 July 2015
Mangochi, Malawi
SILL Project Objectives1. Provide an evidence base for linkages between field
and farm-scale sustainable intensification (SI) interventions and climate change mitigation
2. Provide recommendations to inform the design of an integrated framework for programming in Zambia
Pilot sites: Eastern and Lusaka Provinces, Zambia
Sustainable Intensification Interventions
AgroforestryConservation Agriculture
Forest Conservation
Biodiversity / Wildlife
Conservation
Agricultural-Environmental Linkages
Participatory System Dynamics Modeling
Introductory workshop – generate causal loop diagrams Review literature and data sets Build national model in Vensim Participatory modeling workshop – refine parameters Build provincial-level model (Eastern and Lusaka)
Major Trends in Zambia
Relatively low population density Population growth
Projected to increase 10x by 2100 High rates of urbanization Deforestation (150,000—300,000 ha/year)
Population
Fuel
Food
Grassland
Forest
Agricultural
Decision-making
Wildlife populations
Model Structure
National Level Deforestation(baseline, 2010-2060)
14% loss18% loss
Deciduous and evergreen forest
20 M
17.5 M
15 M
12.5 M
10 M
2010 2025 2040 2055Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : landscape_v5_baseline
Miombo woodland
40 M
37.5 M
35 M
32.5 M
30 M
2010 2025 2040 2055Time (Year)
ha
Miombo woodland : landscape_v5_baseline
National ModelDeforestation by Driver
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060Time (Year)
ha/Y
ear
deforestation for agriculture : landscape_v5_baselinearea of forest needed for charcoal : landscape_v5_baselinearea of forest needed for fuelwood : landscape_v5_baselineforest clearing for commercial timber : landscape_v5_baselineforest clearing for rural home construction : landscape_v5_baseline
Miombo Clearing by Driver
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060Time (Year)
ha/Y
ear
miombo clearing for ag : landscape_v5_baselinearea of miombo needed for charcoal : landscape_v5_baselinearea of miombo needed for fuelwood : landscape_v5_baselinemiombo clearing for commercial timber : landscape_v5_baselinemiombo clearing for rural home construction : landscape_v5_baseline
National Model
1.23% loss rate in 2010
0.93% loss rate in 2010
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
225,000
150,000
75,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline
Miombo woodland
600,000
450,000
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline
Lusaka Baseline
Deforestation by Driver
30,000
22,500
15,000
7500
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060Time (Year)
ha/Y
ear
deforestation for agriculture : lusaka_baselinearea of forest needed for charcoal : lusaka_baselinearea of forest needed for fuelwood : lusaka_baselineforest clearing for rural home construction : lusaka_baseline
Lusaka Model
Miombo Clearing by Driver
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060Time (Year)
ha/Y
ear
miombo clearing for ag : lusaka_baselinearea of miombo needed for charcoal : lusaka_baselinearea of miombo needed for fuelwood : lusaka_baselinemiombo clearing for rural home construction : lusaka_baseline
Lusaka Model
Effect of Drought on Forest Cover
A drought affecting 70% of agricultural area occurs every 40 years, and 40% of agricultural area every 8 years. Farmers turn to charcoal production for income in years in which their crops are affected. If farmers engage in CA, they are not affected.
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_drought
Miombo woodland
600,000
300,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : lusaka_baselineMiombo woodland : lusaka_drought
Effects of Maize Yield Increase on Forest Cover
Maize yields increase at 3x their current rate.
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_yield
Miombo woodland
600,000
300,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : lusaka_baselineMiombo woodland : lusaka_yield
Effect of Full Electrification on Forest Cover
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_electrification
Miombo woodland
600,000
300,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : lusaka_baselineMiombo woodland : lusaka_electrification
Effect of Fuel Efficient Stoves on Forest Cover
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_efficient_stoves
Miombo woodland
600,000
300,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : lusaka_baselineMiombo woodland : lusaka_efficient_stoves
Eastern Baseline
0.74% loss rate in 2010
0.54% loss rate in 2010
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.75 M
1.5 M
1.25 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline
Miombo woodland
3 M
2.75 M
2.5 M
2.25 M
2 M
2010 2025 2040 2055Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline
Eastern ProvinceDeforestation by Driver
20,000
15,000
10,000
5000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060Time (Year)
ha/Y
ear
deforestation for agriculture : eastern_baselinearea of forest needed for charcoal : eastern_baselinearea of forest needed for fuelwood : eastern_baselineforest clearing for rural home construction : eastern_baseline
Eastern ProvinceMiombo Clearing by Driver
30,000
22,450
14,900
7350
-200
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060Time (Year)
ha/Y
ear
miombo clearing for ag : eastern_baselinearea of miombo needed for charcoal : eastern_baselinearea of miombo needed for fuelwood : eastern_baselinemiombo clearing for rural home construction : eastern_baseline
Effect of Drought on Forest Cover
A drought affecting 70% of agricultural area occurs every 40 years, and 40% of agricultural area every 8 years. Farmers turn to charcoal production for income in years in which their crops are affected. If farmers engage in CA, they are not affected.
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.5 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_drought
Miombo woodland
3 M
2.5 M
2 M
2010 2025 2040 2055Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : eastern_baselineMiombo woodland : eastern_drought
Effects of Maize Yield increase on Forest Cover
Maize yields increase at 3x their current rate.
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.5 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_yield
Miombo woodland
3 M
2.5 M
2 M
2010 2025 2040 2055Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : eastern_baselineMiombo woodland : eastern_yield
Effect of Full Electrification on Forest Cover
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.5 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_electrification
Miombo woodland
3 M
2.5 M
2 M
2010 2025 2040 2055Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : eastern_baselineMiombo woodland : eastern_electrification
Effect of Fuel Efficient Stoves on Forest Cover
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.5 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_efficient_stoves
Miombo woodland
3 M
2.5 M
2 M
2010 2025 2040 2055Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : eastern_baselineMiombo woodland : eastern_efficient_stoves
Charcoal production and clearing for agriculture are both important drivers of deforestation Charcoal dominates in Lusaka Clearing for agriculture dominates currently in EP
Charcoal dominates both in the future Agricultural land clearing is driven by rural
population growth, not low yields/land abandonment
Charcoal production is driven by urban population growth and energy demand
Conclusions