impact of global economic crisis on some economic and financial egyptian indicators
DESCRIPTION
Monthly indicators (cont.) Growth rate of liquidity reflects that conservative actions taken by Central Bank of Egypt helped to contain the effect of the first wave of the global crises. From Oct. 2008,domestic liquidity growth rate reached around 15% and declined to 9.5% in Jan Change in the Egyptian Exchange index (CASE 30) reflect the recognized effect of global crises as the index shows lowest level in Feb due to the decline of foreign investment in Egypt as investors tried to support their financial position in their home countries.TRANSCRIPT
Monthly indicatorsCPI and PPI reflect the global economic and financial crises impacts specially PPI which show a negative sign as a result of crude oil price deterioration . On the other hand CPI reflects the government efforts to lower inflation rate from the highest level 23.6% in Aug. 2008 to 13.5% Feb. 2009
Monthly indicators (cont.) Growth rate of liquidity reflects that conservative actions taken by Central Bank of Egypt helped to contain the effect of the first wave of the global crises . From Oct. 2008 ,domestic liquidity growth rate reached around 15% and declined to 9.5% in Jan. 2009.
Change in the Egyptian Exchange index (CASE 30) reflect the recognized effect of global crises as the index shows lowest level in Feb. 2009 due to the decline of foreign investment in Egypt as investors tried to support their financial position in their home countries.
Monthly Indicators
Annual Inflation Rate(percentage change )
13.5
23.6
-7.6
33.8
-8.0-3.02.07.0
12.017.022.027.032.037.0
Jan-
07Fe
b-07
Mar
-07
Apr
-07
May
-07
Jun-
07Ju
l-07
Aug
-07
Sep-
07O
ct-0
7N
ov-0
7D
ec-0
7Ja
n-08
Feb-
08M
ar-0
8A
pr-0
8M
ay-0
8Ju
n-08
Jul-0
8A
ug-0
8Se
p-08
Oct
-08
Nov
-08
Dec
-08
Jan-
09Fe
b-09
CPI PPI
Price Indices Inflation Rate For Both CPI & PPI
Source : CAPMAS
Reverse Trend of Inflation of PPI
Producers Price Index ( PPI) 2004/2005 33.8
-8.0
-3.0
2.0
7.0
12.0
17.0
22.0
27.0
32.0
37.0
Jan-
07
Feb-
07
Mar
-07
Apr
-07
May
-07
Jun-
07
Jul-0
7
Aug
-07
Sep-
07
Oct
-07
Nov
-07
Dec
-07
Jan-
08
Feb-
08
Mar
-08
Apr
-08
May
-08
Jun-
08
Jul-0
8
Aug
-08
Sep-
08
Oct
-08
Nov
-08
Dec
-08
Jan-
09
Feb-
09
-7.00
-5.00
-3.00
-1.00
1.00
3.00
5.00
7.00
Monthly growth rate(R.Scale)
Annual growth rate(L.Scale)
Monthly Indicators Source : CAPMAS
Growth Rate of M0 & M1 & M2Monthly Indicators Source : CBE
Some Main Macroeconomic Indecators
0.05.0
10.015.020.025.030.035.040.0
Jan-
2007
Feb-
2007
Mar
-200
7
Apr
-200
7
May
-200
7
Jun-
2007
Jul-2
007
Aug
-200
7
Sep-
2007
Oct
-200
7
Nov
-200
7
Dec
-200
7
Jan-
2008
Feb-
2008
Mar
-200
8
Apr
-200
8
May
-200
8
Jun-
2008
Jul-2
008
Aug
-200
8
Sep-
2008
Oct
-200
8
Nov
-200
8
Dec
-200
8
Jan-
2009
Gro
wth
rate
M0 M1 M2
Change of the Egyptian Exchange Index (CASE 30)Egyptian Exchange Index case 30
9390
.9
8687
.8
7749
8244
.3
7803
.4
9721
.7
1054
9.7
1031
8.1
1133
5.2
1135
7.4
1178
6.5
1105
7.3
9827
.3
9251
.2
8449
.6
7059
.2
4716
.3
4205
.9
4596
.5
3874
.9
3597
.6
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Jun-
2007
Jul-2
007
Aug
-200
7
Sep-
2007
Oct
-200
7
Nov
-200
7
Dec
-200
7
Jan-
2008
Feb-
2008
Mar
-200
8
Apr
-200
8
May
-200
8
Jun-
2008
Jul-2
008
Aug
-200
8
Sep-
2008
Oct
-200
8
Nov
-200
8
Dec
-200
8
Jan-
2009
Feb-
2009
Cas
e 30
Egyptian Exchange Index case 30
Monthly Indicators Source : Egyptian Exchange
Quarterly indicatorsQuarterly indicators reflect the impact of global crises on some component of balance of payments as follows :-Trade balance fell to its record deficit in 2nd quarter of 2008/2009 of 9% compared with pervious one.-Exports proceeds declined about 33% in2nd quarter compared to 1st quarter of 2008/2009
Quarterly indicators (cont.)• petroleum exports dropped sharply 54.5%
from 1st to 2nd quarter of 2008/2009- Net portfolio investment in Egypt declined to
the lowest level in second quarter 2008/2009 compared with 4th quarter 2007/2008 (from -22.9 to -3902.4 US$ mn) due to decrease of the foreign investments.
• Overall balance reversed from 459 US $ mn to -1005.8 US$ mn
Balance of Payments
Quarterly Indicators Source : CBE
Trade Balance
-7.0-6.6
-7.6
-5.5
-6.1
-5.2
-5.6
-4.0
-10.0
-9.0
-8.0
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
Q32
006-
2007
Q42
006-
2007
Q12
007-
2008
Q22
007-
2008
Q32
007-
2008
Q42
007-
2008
Q12
008-
2009
Q22
008-
2009
Balance of Payments (contd.)
EXPORTS
5433.4
6119 5989.87113.3 7734.7 8518 8162.9
5232.5
2269.9 2781.5 2522.93498.6 3898.7 4552.4 4109.4 1871.4
100020003000400050006000700080009000
10000
Q320
06-
2007
Q420
06-
2007
Q120
07-
2008
Q22
007-
2008
Q320
07-
2008
Q42
007-
2008
Q120
08-
2009
Q22
008-
2009
US$
mn
Export Proceeds Petroleum Exports
Quarterly Indicators Source : CBE
Balance of Payments (contd.)Portfolio Investment in Egypt Net
-3902.4
383.2-22.9
-3484.9
171.6-1165.2
-1430.4
-303.5
-5000-4000
-3000-2000
-10000
1000
Q32
006-
2007
Q42
006-
2007
Q12
007-
2008
Q22
007-
2008
Q32
007-
2008
Q42
007-
2008
Q12
008-
2009
Q22
008-
2009
US
$ m
nQuarterly Indicators Source : CBE
Balance of Payments (contd.)Overall Balance
1828.3
1936.1
-1005.8
459
505.6
1150.4
2169.7
206.8
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Q32006-2007
Q42006-2007
Q12007-2008
Q22007-2008
Q32007-2008
Q42007-2008
Q12008-2009
Q22008-2009
US$
mn
Quarterly Indicators Source : CBE
Annual indicators• Annual growth rate of GDP is expected to
decline from around 7.0% ( average of the last tree years )to about 4.8% in 2008/2009
• The growth rate of some key sectors showed a decrease during 2008/2009 . restaurants &hotel sector declined sharply to 0.6% in 2008/2009 compared with 15.6 in 2007/2008
Some Basic Macroeconomic Indicators
4
5
6
7
8
2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009
Gro
wth
Rat
e
Annua real growth rate of GDP at Factor Cost Annua real growth rate of GDP at Market PriceAnnua real growth rate of Total Domistic production
Annual Indicators Source : MOP