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Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Food

SecurityAllah Dad Khan

Ex-D.G Agri. Extensionon 18th April 2017 at PFI

Environmental Issues1. Global warming 2. Climate change 3. Continuous Floods (2010, 2012,

2013) 4. Occurrence of extreme weather

events5. Drought 6. Increasing Insect/pest infestation

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Climate system

Pakistan Agricultural Sector – Key Statistics

Contribution to GDP 21.4% Labor Force Employment 45.0% Avera ge Growth during last 6 years 3.7%

Contribution of different Sub-Sectors in Agriculture’s GDP1. Crops (Wheat, Rice, Cotton, S. cane) 32%2. Livestock 55%3. Fisheries 4.0%4. Forestry 2.0%5. Others 7.0%Share in Export Earnings (Raw/Processed)1. Cotton + Cotton Based Products 64.7%2. Fruits, Rice, Fish, Leather 18.2%3. Others 17.1%

(Govt. of Pakistan, 2016)

Climatic Classification of Pakistan

1. Arid, semi arid, sub humid and humid2. 2/3 of the area of Pakistan lies under

arid climate3. Light brown and dark brown spots

indicating aridity in the country

Climate of Pakistan O Subtropical arid zone to semi-arid climate 1. June is the hottest month (48°C) in the plains 2. July in the mountainous areas, with temperatures

over 38°C, 3. The mean monthly minimum temp is only 4°C in

December/January4. Average annual precipitation is estimated at

494 mm. 5. Maximum rainfall is1500 mm in the north 6. Most of the rainfall in Pakistan originates from

summer monsoons

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Climate Change links between Agriculture and Food Security 1. Climate change is generated by emissions of greenhouse gases that in turn are largely dependent on fossil energy use (mainly coal and oil) and by methane and nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture;2.Food production, distribution and consumption depend strongly on fossil fuel energy consumption; high oil prices affect costs of production, processing, transport, conservation; at the same time,agriculture’s important role in greenhouse gas (GHG) production is increasing as rising incomes drive up demand for meat proteins;

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Climate change links between Agriculture and Food Security contd3. Climate change hits agricultural productivity directly through drought, floods, pests, diseases and catastrophic events, as well as by temperature changes that affect plant productivity;4. In order to anticipate the foresighted peak in oil reserves, many governments are subsidizing the production and trade of biofuels, so contributing to increased food prices;

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Climate change links between Agriculture and Food Security contd

5.In order to diversify financial assets, investors are turning their attention to agricultural commodities, amplifying price increases;6.In order to safeguard their own domestic food security, countries with high populations and/or low agricultural potential are competing with small farmers in other countries for land and water by buying or contracting large tracts of land.

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Factors related to climate change

a) Indiscriminate use of natural resources

b) Global warming and meteorological observatories

c) Excessive and unplanned urbanization

d) Unplanned industrial growthe) Imbalanced use of agricultural

inputs and extreme farmingf) Population influx / pressure

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Factors related to climate change

a) Effect of industrial pollution son marine life

h) Flood , Drought and other natural disasters

i) Land erosion land sliding ii) Pollution of rivers, streams by different

meansiii) Waste water and waste crops residuesiv) Wastes of marbles specially in Warsak

Peshawar Jehangira Swabi

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Changes in Human and Natural Drivers of climate Changes 1. CO2 concentrations have increased from 280 ppm (since �1750) to 368 ppm in 2000 (31.4%) to 379 in 2005 (35.4% rise) and 396.18 ppm in April 20122. CH4 concentrations have increased from a pre-industrial value of about 715 ppb to 1732 ppb in early 1990s (142% rise) and is 1774ppb in 2005 (148% rise). The rise since 1990s is only 2.4%. 3.N2O concentrations have increased from a pre-industrial value of about 270 ppb to 319 ppb in 2005 (18% rise). The growth rate has about 270 ppb to 319 ppb in 2005 (18% rise). The growth rate has been approximately constant since 1980s. More than a third of all N2O emissions are anthropogenic and are primarily due to agriculture

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Changes in Human and Natural Drivers of climate Changes contd

Temperature1.11 of the last 12 years (1995-2006) except 1996 rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850).2. Widespread changes in extreme temperatures have been observed over the last 50 years. Cold days, cold nights and frost have become less frequent, while hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have become more frequent

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Impact of Climate Changes

On Agriculture

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Why is Agriculture vulnerable to Climate Change

1. Highly diverse nature2. Highly rainfall dependency( 23rd area

rain dependent)3. Inadequate infrastructure facilities for

supply of quality inputs.4. Rapid degradation of soil and loss of

soil fertility and nutrient level.5. Poor resource base of the farmers 6. Poor technology penetration .

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Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture

1. Fourteen crops were considered for impact �assessment (at 0.3ºC per decade). All the selected crops were found to be suffering due to heat stress.

2. significant increase in growing degree days reduces the growing season length for the crop.

3. 8% and 15% increase in GDD in 2020 and 2050. �With rainfall decreases by 6%, net irrigation water requirements could increase by 29%.

23Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture contd 4. Impacts on the production of food will affect food �supply at the global and local levels. Globally, higher yields in temperate regions could offset lower yields in tropical regions. 5. Climate change will affect human health through variables such as changes in temperature, exposure to natural disasters, access to food and air quality.

6. Changes induced by climate change are likely to result in species range shifts and changes in tree productivity, adding further stress to forest ecosystems.

7. Impacts on all forms of agricultural production will affect livelihoods and access to food. Producer groups that are less able to deal with climate change, such as the rural poor in developing countries, risk having their safety and welfare compromised.

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Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture contd

8. Changes induced by climate change are likely to result in species range shifts and changes in tree productivity, adding further stress to forest ecosystems.

9. Impacts on all forms of agricultural production will affect livelihoods and access to food. Producer groups that are less able to deal with climate change, such as the rural poor in developing countries, risk having their safety and welfare compromised.

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Impacts on Agriculture contd10..Soils are sources of concern as well. The global crop land availability is in decline as a result of population growth, soil degradation, soil losses and soil sealing, shrinking water resources, salt water intrusion into coastal aquifers, as well as rising temperatures that are leading to falling land productivity.11.Loss of agri-biodiversity is associated with a range of causal factors, including destruction and fragmentation of habitats and the increasing use of land for non-agricultural purposes, emissions, agricultural intensification, etc. (Millenium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005)

26Impacts on Agriculture contd12.Landslides tend to occur more frequently in areas with clayey sub-soil, steep slopes, intense and abundant precipitation and land abandonment, such as the Alpine and the Mediterranean regions. Again this trend is accelerated by the intensification of pasture use.

13.The contamination with pesticides in surface water, ground water and partly in drinking water, in particular after heavy rainfalls, is another problem area

14.Pandemic pest and diseases in animal and plant production The movement of plant pests, animal diseases and invasive alien aquatic organisms across physical and political boundaries threatens food security in new ways in a climate-changing world.

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Adaptation to climate change 1. Changes in Cropping Patterns2. Sugar beet instead of sugarcane�3. Adjusting Cropping Pattern with Water Availability�4. More share of cropped area under oil seed crops�5. Improved Productivity and Production Management�6. Farm forestry�7. New varieties , drought/ heat resistant8. New farm management practices9. Change in land use 10. Watershed management11. Agri insurance

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Impact of Climate Change on

What is food securityO The history of food security dates back

to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948 in which the right to food was recognized as a core element of standard of living and also to the world food crisis of 1972–1974.

O The food security concept continued developing overtime and approximately 200 definitions and 450 indicators are now available in the literature.

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Food security…

... exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.

World Food Summit 1996)

…. is much more than just food production….

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Climate change and food security

Climate change will affect all four dimensions of food security: food availability, food accessibility, food utilization and food systems stability. It will have an impact on human health, livelihood assets, food production and distribution channels, as well as changing purchasing power and market flows. Its impacts will be both short term, resulting from more frequent and more intense extreme weather events, and long term, caused by changing temperatures and precipitation patterns,

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Climate Impacts on Food Security

One of the most significant impacts of climate change is the potential increase in food insecurity due to changes in the productivity of agricultural land, seasonal variability, and higher magnitude of disasters. Climate change interacts with the different drivers of food insecurity to create new risks (but it can also create opportunities) and can affect all dimensions of food securit

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Climate Impacts on Food Security1. During the last two decades, 200 million

have been lifted out of hunger and the prevalence of chronic malnutrition in children has decreased from 40 to 26 percent.

2. In spite of this progress, according to the World Bank, 702 million people still live in extreme poverty and, according to this year's report on the State of Food Insecurity in the World (SOFI), 793 million people are undernourished

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Climate Impacts on Food Security contd

3.At the global level, therefore, food system performance today depends more on climate than it did 200 years ago; the possible impacts of climate change on food security have tended to be viewed with most concern in locations where rainfed agriculture is still the primary source of food and income

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Food Security And Nutrition Food availability: Changes in climatic conditions have

already affected the production of some staple crops, and future climate change threatens to exacerbate this. Higher temperatures will have an impact on yields while changes in rainfall could affect both crop quality and quantity.

Food access: Climate change could increase the prices of major crops in some regions. For the most vulnerable people, lower agricultural output means lower incomes. Under these conditions, the poorest people — who already use most of their income on food — sacrifice additional income and other assets to meet their nutritional requirements, or resort to poor coping strategies.

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Increasing The Risk Of Hunger Extreme weather eventsClimate change increases the frequency and intensity of some disasters such as droughts, floods and storms. This has an adverse impact on livelihoods and food security. Climate-related disasters have the potential to destroy crops, critical infrastructure, and key community assets, therefore deteriorating livelihoods and exacerbating poverty. Long-term and gradual climate risksSea-level will rise as a result of climate change, affecting livelihoods in coastal areas and river deltas. Accelerated glacial melt will also affect the quantity and reliability of water available and change patterns of flooding and drought

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Recommendation

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Recommendation by experts 1.Protecting local food supplies, assets and livelihoods against the effects of increasing weather variability and increased frequency and intensity of extreme events, through:

a) general risk management;b) management of risks specific to different ecosystems –

marine, coastal, inland water and floodplain, forest, dryland, island, mountain, polar, cultivated;

c) research and dissemination of crop varieties and breeds adapted to changing climatic conditions;

d) introducing tree crops to provide food, fodder and energy and enhance cash incomes.

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Recommendation by experts Contd2.Avoiding disruptions or declines in global and local food supplies due to changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, through:

a) more efficient agricultural water management in general;

b) more efficient management of irrigation water on rice paddies;

c) improved management of cultivated land;d) improved livestock management;e) use of new, more energy-efficient technologies

by agro-industries.

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Recommendation by experts Contd3.Protecting ecosystems, through provision of such environmental services as:

a) use of degraded or marginal lands for productive planted forests or other cellulose

b) biomass for alternative fuels;c) Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

carbon sink tree plantings;d) watershed protection;e) prevention of land degradation;f) protection of coastal areas from cyclones

and other coastal hazards;g) biodiversity conservation.

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Way Forward

maintaining up-to-date agro meteorological data; developing methods and tools for assessing

extreme weather impacts and guiding adaptation; agro-ecological zoning for impact modeling and

vulnerability assessment; land-cover mapping; global assessments, such as of crops and forest

resources; tailoring information to the perceptions and

needs of rural households and providing gender-sensitive guidance for adaptive

livelihood development

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Way Forward contd

research and dissemination of crop varieties and breeds adapted to changing climatic conditions;

effective use of genetic resources; promotion of agroforestry, integrated farming

systems and adapted forest management practices;

improved infrastructure for small-scale water capture, storage and use;

improved soil management practices. Producing"more"crops"from"less"land"is"the"sin

gle"most"significant"means"of"jointly"achieving" mitigation"and"food"production"in"agriculture.

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