Impact of Advanced Information & Communications Technologies

on the Governance of the State: A Workshop

Facilitators

Stephen Fanjoy & Peter MacKinnon

Management Advisors

Monday March 18, 2019

12:00 – 17:00

University of Ottawa

Telfer School of Management

Desmarais Building Room 4165

55 Laurier Ave E

Agenda

• Tour de Table ~ 15 minutes

• Introduction, Objectives & Workshop Instructions ~ 25 minutes

• Organise Working Groups ~5 minutes

• Break ~ 15 minutes

• Break-out Session ~ 120 minutes

• Break ~ 15 minutes

• Plenary Session ~ 40 minutes, target ~4 pm

• Summary & Next Steps ~ 10 minutes

Introduction & Objectives

Introduction

Background • This workshop & the next related one in the Spring are a consequence

of the FSN presentations given by Steve and Peter in November & December respectively & the recent presentation by Jack Smith on Feb 25th

• All three presentations are available on the FSN website

Workshop Conventions • The term ‘state’ is taken to be all forms of public governance structures

ranging from autocracies to democracies

• There are 3 timeframes - namely now through the next 10 years, from 2030 to 2050 and from 2050 up to 2100

5

** Ukraine, Brexit, 11/9

The Past Century of Converging Domains GeoPol Context

WW1 WW2 Cold War 9/11 Snowden ** Arab Spring/Winter ISIS

ICT Media

AdNews, Radio , Movies TV 24hr News Internet Social ,Mobile IoT, IoMe

Science Behavioural Psychology Social Psychology

InfoOps Propaganda PSYOP Electronic Warfare Computer/Network Ops MILDSC OPSEC

Surveil HUMINT SIGINT OSINT Industrial Espionage Criminal Commercial OSINT 2.0

ICT Security

Clipper Chip RSA ZeroDay Stockpiling CyberWar

A Provisional Argument

• Information and communications technology (ICT) is increasingly pervasive and powerful • Serves mostly commercial interests

• Changes human values, behaviour, minds

• Democracy requires humans and ICT • ICT is hackable and insecure

• Humans are hackable

• Democracy is hackable and insecure

• We’re in deep trouble…

(Unless…)

7

General Approach

• March 18th Workshop • To develop realistic scenarios across the three timeframes with

respect to the impact of Advanced Information & Communications Technologies on the governance of the state

• Address the Challenge Questions • Provide a Plenary Session report on each scenario along with any

related comments

• Spring Workshop (to be scheduled)

• Analyze & synthesis the scenarios based on an overview provided by Steve & Peter

• Develop a group consensus on backcasting best case, worst case and most likely case scenarios

• Identify leverage points in each scenario • Additional group comments • Peter & Steve to develop a Workshop Report for group comment • We have an opportunity to publish our report

Approach for Today’s Workshop

• We will apply the Foresight Process as outlined in the February 25th presentation by Jack Smith and posted on the FSN website

• Here are the steps we will move through:

• Identify Key Lens from which to view the problem being addressed (i.e., labels for the orthogonal axes)

• Review Initial Challenge Questions & modify/adjust • Identify what drives the Challenge Questions • Identify possible Disruptors & Wild Cards • Populate scenarios using orthogonal axes approach • Report scenarios to Plenary session

Challenge Questions for Developing Scenarios

1. What are the emerging threats to governance of the state posed by advanced ICTs?

2. What are the emerging benefits to governance of the state posed by advanced ICTs?

3. What disruptors are possible WRT using advanced ICTs to impact the governance of the state?

4. What wild cards are possible WRT using advanced ICTs to impact the governance of the state?

Overall Objectives

• We will create working groups based on the number of attendees with each group ideally comprised of 4 to 5-persons

• Each working group will: • Follow workshop instructions • Establish a rapporteur and breakout session chair • Develop at least one scenario per each timeframe • Document & report on each Scenario to the Plenary

• Note that 2100 is the target date for meeting the Paris Accords regarding climate change, therefore you may wish to consider what is the role of advanced ICTs in coping with climate change from the nation state perspective throughout the 3 time intervals

Address Each Scenario: Step by Step

• Input: identify what is going on?

• Analytical: describe what seems to be happening?

• Prospective: speculate on what might happen?

• Interpretive: synthesize what is most likely going to happen?

Workshop Instructions

Workshop Instructions

• Address the Challenge Questions by developing scenarios for each of the three timeframes using the axes labels provided (see next slide)

• Identify key drivers that shape each scenario

• Identify disruptors & wild cards per each scenario

• Identify up to 4 or 5 critical uncertainties

• Add additional insights based on group discussion and consensus

• Document scenarios in chart form

• Report scenarios to Plenary Session

Selecting Orthogonal Axes: Examples

Autocracy Democracy

ICT Usage - Benevolent

ICT Usage - Malevolent

Autocracy Democracy

ICT Usage - Open

ICT Usage - Closed

Selecting Orthogonal Axes: Examples (2)

Autocracy Democracy

ICT Actors - State

ICT Actors - Individual

Autocracy Democracy

ICT ?

ICT ?

Next Step - Breakout

• Any questions or comments?

• Logistics & timeline for reporting to the Plenary

• Form working groups

• Next: • Break ~ 25 minutes

• Break-out Session ~ 120 minutes

• Break ~ 30 minutes

• Plenary Session ~ 40 minutes

• Summary & Next Steps ~ 20 minutes

Selected Further Reading

• CSEC/CCCS/CSIS • Cyber Threats To Canada's Democratic Process

• Who Said What? The Security Challenges of Modern Disinformation

• GoC Elections Canada • Chief Electoral Officer on Breach of Personal Information

Involving Cambridge Analytica and Facebook • Election Security

• GoC Democratic Institutions www.canada.ca/en/democratic-institutions

• Digital Citizen Initiative • Cyber Threats to Canada’s Democratic Process

• UK Parliament • Disinformation and ‘fake news’: Final Report

• Brookings www.brookings.edu • Democracy and disorder • Artificial intelligence and the future of

geopolitics • TechTank articles

• Lawfare www.lawfareblog.com • DayZero: Cybersecurity Law and Policy articles

• MIT Technology Review www.technologyreview.com

• Technology is threatening our democracy. How do we save it?

• Hacking Democracy • Why AI is a threat to democracy—and what we can

do to stop it

• Freedom House www.freedomhouse.org • Freedom in the World 2019

• The Conversation www.theconversation.com • How governments use Big Data to violate human rights

• Canadians are rightly worried about invasion of privacy in smart cities

• A state actor has targeted Australian political parties – but that shouldn’t surprise us

• Protecting online elections in Canada

• African countries should rethink how they use e-government platforms

• Books • Surveillance Capitalism