immigration economics 375 professor kenneth ng cobae california state university, northridge

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Immigration Economics 375 Professor Kenneth Ng COBAE California State University, Northridge

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  • Immigration Economics 375Professor Kenneth NgCOBAECalifornia State University, Northridge

  • Readings and Exam.Paul JohnsonPart 3: High Birth Rates and the Immigrant Flood.Part 5: Mass-Immigration and Thinking Big, Monster Cities: Chicago and New York, The Urban Rich and Poor.Part 6: All. Thomas SowellChapter 1: The American Mosaic.Chapter 6: The Chinese.Chapter 8: The Blacks.Plus one other chapter. Exam will be open book but closed note.Will not have enough time to read book during exam.

  • Immigration before 1860. Immigration unrestricted until after Civil War.By unrestricted, I mean anyone could come from anyplace and become a US citizen.Open Door Policy.No restrictions based on education, parentage, criminal record, etc. There was no support for the idea of restricting immigration. Before 1830, immigration was a minor source of population increase.Most of increase in population was due to balance of births over deaths.After 1830, immigration increased and built up steadily.In 1845, series of poor harvests and the failure of the potato harvest in northern Europe produced the first deluge of immigrants-Irish Immigration.

    Growth 1800 -1860

    Indices of Economic Growth, 1800-1860Value of Component Indicies

    YearPer Capita Output IndexAnnual Per Capita Growth

    180064.4YearZ

    181061.9-0.418001.9570.8260.7640.9660.644

    182067.60.918101.9570.8370.7390.970.619

    1830842.218201.9570.790.7660.9870.676

    18401001.818301.9570.7070.90.9760.84

    1850110.4118401.9570.634111

    18601372.218501.9570.54811.0651.13

    18601.9570.5321.2151.0651.38

    Source: Paul David, "The Growth of Real Product in the U.S. before 1840: New Evidence , Controlled Conjectures, JEH 27 (June 1967)

    Sources of Change in Per Capita Output, 1800-1860

    DecadeLabor Force ParticipationShift out of AgricultureIncreased Agricultural Productivity

    18000.30-1.00-3.90

    18101.903.909.20

    1820-1.206.6024.30

    18302.505.5019.00

    18406.506.1013.00

    18500.001.1022.10

    1800-403.5015.8055.30

    1840-606.507.2038.00

    Based on Variant II in 1840 prices.

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    US Growth 1840-1960

    Rates of Growth: Gross National Product, Population, Labor Force In the U.S., 1840-1960

    ProductPopulationLabor ForceProduct per CapitaProduct per Worker

    Successive Decades4.243.113.571.10.64

    1839-494.953.093.181.81.71

    1849-591.992.392.07-0.39-0.08

    1859-694.952.333.012.561.88

    1869-79

    Overlapping Decades

    178-82-1882-923.732.262.71.441

    1883-87-1893-973.12.022.51.050.58

    1888-92-1898-19024.041.82.52.21.5

    1893-97-1903-075.031.782.63.192.36

    1898-1902-1908-123.711.952.671.731.01

    1903-07-1913-172.61.871.950.720.63

    1908-12-1918-222.61.51.051.081.53

    1913-17-1923-273.621.41.142.192.45

    1918-22-19293.991.471.352.492.61

    1923-27-1933-37-0.350.981.16-1.33-1.49

    1929-1939-411.370.741.210.620.15

    1933-37-1943-477.020.961.8465.09

    1939-41-1948-524.271.391.42.842.83

    1943-47-1953-572.471.670.80.781.65

    1948-52-1959-613.241.711.191.52.03

    Longer Periods

    1840-804.032.732.961.261.04

    1880-19203.521.882.231.611.26

    1920-603.151.311.281.811.84

    1840-19603.561.972.151.561.38

    Abosolute Values

    1959-61509179.969.928297282

    1959-61 as a multiple of 184066.710.412.96.45.2

    18407.6317.75.424461408

    Source: Kuznets, Notes on the Pattern of U.S. Economic Growth, in S. Engerman and R. Fogel, The Reinterpretation of American Economic History

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    World Growth

    Rate of Growth and Per Capita Income for Selected Countries for Long Periods.

    Duration of PeriodProductPopulationProduct per Captia

    Great Britain

    1841-81402.541.191.33

    1881-1921401.770.910.86

    United Kingdom

    1921-1957-59371.880.431.44

    Total 1841-1957-591172.070.861.2

    France

    1841-50-1861-70202.230.391.84

    1871-80-1901-103020.221.77

    1901-10-1920-2818.51.46-0.131.6

    1920-28-1958-60351.550.371.18

    Total, 1841-50-1958-60103.51.80.241.55

    Germany

    1913 Boundaries

    1851-55-1871-75201.630.740.89

    1871-75-1913403.091.21.87

    Interwar Boundaries

    1913-1935-37230.570.530.04

    Federal Republic

    1936-1958-60233.971.42.53

    Total, 1913-1958-60462.250.971.28

    Total, 1851-55-1958-601062.451.011.43

    Sweden

    1861-65-1881-85202.880.722.15

    1881-85-1921-25402.690.662.01

    1921-25-1958-60363.770.593.16

    Total, 1861-65-1958-60963.130.642.47

    European Russia

    1860-1913532.671.31.35

    USSR

    1913-28150.540.540

    1928-58304.40.673.71

    Total, 1913-58453.10.632.45

    Total, 1860-1958982.870.991.86

    Japan

    1878-82-1918-22404.141.053.05

    1918-22-1958-60393.971.362.57

    Total, 1878-82-1958-60794.051.212.81

    Source: Kuznets, Notes.. in Engerman and Fogel, Reinterpretations.

    &A

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    productivity

    National Economy: Output and Productivity Ratios, 1869-1959

    YearOutput (Real Net Product)Output per Unit of labor inputOutput per unit of capital InputTotal Factor Productivity

    18697.83567.742

    187915.75490.262.5

    188921.850.285.558.3

    189933.961.287.667.8

    130351.369.892.175.6

    191970.379.391.782.6

    1929100100100100

    1939104.8117.2111.5115.9

    1949159.7138.7130.5136.4

    1959233.5179.8134.4169.1

    Source: Peter George p. 12

    Agriculture

    YearOutput (Real Net Product)Output per Unit of labor inputOutput per unit of capital InputTotal Factor Productivity

    186928.953.976.760.8

    187945.264.284.370.7

    188957.269.287.675.5

    189972.579.892.884.6

    130378.881.487.684

    191987.385.685.785.6

    1929100100100100

    1939109.2122.6111.7118.4

    1949129.9175.3123.5153.8

    1959170354.5141.6250.4

    Source: Peter George p. 12

    Manufacturing

    YearOutput (Real Net Product)Output per Unit of labor inputOutput per unit of capital InputTotal Factor Productivity

    18697.129.6158.936.4

    187910.232.7134.639.7

    188918.341.410448.2

    189927.547.793.953.9

    130343.453.579.857.9

    1919615865.759.6

    1929100100100100

    1939102.5123.9120.8122.8

    1949174139.8140.3139.9

    1959284.3195.6165.3191.1

    Source: Peter George p. 12

    &CProductivity Data

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    Pop., Labor, Land, and Capital

    Indexes of Population, Labor, Land, Capital and Net National Product, 1840-1960.

    YearPopulationLaborLandCapitalNet National Product

    1840100100100100100

    1870235228240512324

    190044751456623431037

    1930724863108565752952

    1960106113081165105315994

    Source Peter George, The Emergence of Industrial America p. 5

    Accounting for Growth

    Annual Rate of Growth

    PeriodLaborCapitalLandNNP

    1840-603.426.573.734.75

    1870-19302.244.352.553.75

    1940-19901.563.140.343.22

    Percentage of Growth in NNP Attributable to:

    PeriodLaborCapitalLandProductivity

    1840-6049%26%10%15%

    1870-193043%27%4%27%

    1940-199041%14%0%45%

    Source: Atack and Passel, p. 19

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    TFP Problem from Exam

    Total Factor Productivity ExampleTotal Factor Productivity ExerciseTotal Factor Productivity Exercise

    184018601850195018501950

    Output$4,500$8,550OutputOutput$2,000$57,500

    Amount of Land100150Amount of Land100500Amount of Land100500

    Amount of Labor5060Amount of Labor1002000Amount of Labor1002000

    Price of Land$20$25Price of Land$5$15Price of Land$5$15

    Price of Labor$50$80Price of Labor$15$25Price of Labor$15$25

    Factor Share of Land0.4440.439Factor Share of LandFactor Share of Land0.2500.130

    Factor Share of Labor0.5560.561Factor Share of LaborFactor Share of Labor0.7500.870

    Index of Factors67.9089.92Index of Factors1Index of Factors1001669.169

    Factor Share of Land (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.442aFactor Share of Land (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)aFactor Share of Land (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.190a

    Factor Share of Labor (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.558bFactor Share of Labor (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)bFactor Share of Labor (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.810b

    Percent Change in Output0.900Percent Change in OutputPercent Change in Output27.750

    Percent Change in Land0.500Percent Change in LandPercent Change in Land4.000

    Percent Change in Labor0.200Percent Change in LaborPercent Change in Labor19.000

    Change in Total Factor Productivity0.568Change in Total Factor ProductivityChange in Total Factor Productivity11.603

    Instructions: Output has increased from Year 1 to Year 2. How much of the increase is due to more factors of production (land and labor) and how much is due to improved productivity? To answer this question first compute the index of factors (I). Note tha

    TFP Excercise

    Total Factor Productivity ExampleTotal Factor Productivity ExerciseTotal Factor Productivity Exercise

    185019501850195018501950

    Output$2,750$9,000OutputOutput$2,000$57,500

    Amount of Capital5075Amount of Land100500Amount of Land100500

    Amount of Labor150300Amount of Labor1002000Amount of Labor1002000

    Price of Capital$10$20Price of Land$5$15Price of Land$5$15

    Price of Labor$15$25Price of Labor$15$25Price of Labor$15$25

    Factor Share of Capital0.1820.167Factor Share of LandFactor Share of Land0.2500.130

    Factor Share of Labor0.8180.833Factor Share of LaborFactor Share of Labor0.7500.870

    Index of Factors122.8406031059238.110Index of Factors1Index of Factors1001669.169

    Factor Share of Capital (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.174aFactor Share of Land (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)aFactor Share of Land (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.190a

    Factor Share of Labor (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.826bFactor Share of Labor (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)bFactor Share of Labor (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.810b

    Percent Change in Output2.273Percent Change in OutputPercent Change in Output27.750

    Percent Change in Capital0.500Percent Change in LandPercent Change in Land4.000

    Percent Change in Labor1.000Percent Change in LaborPercent Change in Labor19.000

    Change in Total Factor Productivity1.360Change in Total Factor ProductivityChange in Total Factor Productivity11.603

    Instructions: Output has increased from Year 1 to Year 2. How much of the increase is due to more factors of production (land and labor) and how much is due to improved productivity? To answer this question first compute the index of factors (I). Note tha

    Answer to Take Home Assignment

    Real GDPPopulationReal GDP per Capita

    1948$1,491,000,000,000146,631,302$10,168.36

    1996$6,994,800,000,000265,179,411$26,377.61

    Growth Rate3.27%1.24%2.01%

    Real GDPPopulationReal GDP per Capita

    1969$3,393,600,000,000202,676,946$16,743.89

    1996$6,994,800,000,000265,179,411$26,377.61

    Growth Rate2.72%1.00%1.70%

    Total Factor Productivity

    Total Factor Productivity Example

    Year 1Year 2

    Output$12,500$19,000

    Amount of Land10080

    Amount of Labor100150

    Price of Land$25$50

    Price of Labor$100$100

    Factor Share of Land0.2000.211

    Factor Share of Labor0.8000.789

    Index of Factors1131.842

    Factor Share of Land (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.205a

    Factor Share of Labor (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.795b

    Percent Change in Output0.520

    Percent Change in Land-0.200

    Percent Change in Labor0.500

    Change in Total Factor Productivity0.164

    Instructions: Output has increased from Year 1 to Year 2. How much of the increase is due to more factors of production (land and labor) and how much is due to improved productivity? To answer this question first compute the index of factors (I). Note tha

    &CEconomics 375, American Economic History, CSUN

    David

    Value of Component Indicies

    YearZYearZOutput

    18001.9570.8260.7640.9660.64418001.9570.8260.7640.9660.644

    18101.9570.8370.7390.970.61918401.9570.634111

    18201.9570.790.7660.9870.676

    18301.9570.7070.90.9760.84

    18401.9570.634111

    18501.9570.54811.0651.13

    18601.9570.5321.2151.0651.38

    &CPaul David Results

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    Lifespan Handouts

    &CLifespan Tables and Graphs

    Population

    Percentage of WomenRacial Fertility and Density

    18101840Change in Population

    WhiteNo Children7 or more ChildrenFertility IndexPopulation DensityFertility IndexPopulation DensityGrowth Rate102550100200

    1800na50East Coast1%1.101.281.642.707.32

    1840835Middle Atlantic134420.1100645.32%1.221.642.697.2452.48

    18601027New England107923.780036.13%1.342.094.3819.22369.36

    1900207North Central4%1.482.677.1150.502,550.75

    1925105West18100.514801.65%1.633.3911.47131.5017,292.58

    193476East17063.1129115.2

    South Central

    NonwhiteWest15572.214954.6

    1840652East17013.9142414.3

    1860944

    19002813Fertility Index-Children under 5 per 1000 white females 20-44 years of age

    19251816Population Density-Population per square mile.

    1934918

    Women in the Labor Force, 1830-1979Death Rate

    Percentage of Population

    WhiteNonwhiteUSGreat Britain

    TotalMarriedTotalMarriedDateDeath Rate per thousandDeath Rate per thousand

    183080909017004028

    1890132382218502324

    19502821373219101517

    197950485360198057

    Percentage of the Total Decline Which Occurred Between 1700 and Date

    18504919

    19107152

    1980100100

    Source: Fogel, Nutrition and the Decline in Mortality, pp. 440

    Life Expectancy

    England and Wales (both sexes)British PeerageBritish PeerageUS Native Born males

    Birth Cohortat birthat birthat age 10at age 10

    18th

    135.135.139.450.3

    233.838.844.455.5

    336.344.646.355.8

    43746.946.151.9

    19th

    149.348.352.3

    241.552.249.548.9

    344.654.751.455.3

    453.747.4

    20th

    160.15456.9

    &A

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    Nutrition and Mortality

    Life ExpectancyEstimated Average Final Heights of Men who Reached Maturity Between 1750 and 1875 in Six European Populations in Quarter Centuries.

    USGreat BritainEngland and Wales (both sexes)British PeerageBritish PeerageUS Native Born malesRowDate of Maturity by Century and QuarterGreat BritainNorwaySwedenFranceDenmarkHungary

    DateDeath Rate per thousandDeath Rate per thousandBirth Cohortat birthat birthat age 10at age 10118.3165.9163.9168.1168.7

    1700402818th218.4167.9166.7163165.7165.8

    18502324135.135.139.450.3319.1168166.7164.3165.4163.9

    19101517233.838.844.455.5419.2171.6168165.2166.8164.2

    198057336.344.646.355.8519.3169.3168.6169.5165.6165.3

    43746.946.151.9620.3175178.3177.6172176170.9

    Percentage of the Total Decline Which Occurred Between 1700 and Date

    1850491919th

    19107152149.348.352.3

    1980100100241.552.249.548.9

    Source: Fogel, Nutrition and the Decline in Mortality, pp. 440344.654.751.455.3

    453.747.4

    20th

    160.15456.9

    Estimated Average Final Heights of Men who Reached Maturity Between 1750 and 1875 in Six European Populations in Quarter Centuries.

    A Comparison of the Probable French and English Distributions of the Daily Consumption of Kilgram Calories per Consuming Unit Toward the End of the 18th CenturyHeight (inches)

    France circa 1785England circa 1790RowDate of Maturity by Century and QuarterGreat BritainNorwaySwedenFranceDenmarkHungary

    DecileDaily kcal ConsumptionCumulative PercentageDaily kcal ConsumptionCumulative Percentage118.364.763.965.665.8

    Highest36721004329100218.465.565.063.664.664.7

    Ninth298174351484319.165.565.064.164.563.9

    Eight267671315571419.266.965.564.465.164.0

    Seventh245759289759519.366.065.866.164.664.5

    Sixth227648268448620.368.369.569.367.168.666.7

    Fifth211438249238Source: Fogel June 1994 AER

    Fourth195829230929

    Third179821212021

    Second161413190313

    First1310615456

    Mean22902700

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    Immigration

    Income by Race, Religion, and Ethnicity, 1980

    Family Income Index

    Net Immigration as a Proportion of Population Increase, 1800-1860Immigration, 1845-60 by origin, ( 1000's of persons)(US Average=100)Family Income

    YearsPercentage IncreaseYearTotalGreat BritainIrelandScandinaviaOther Northwestern EuropeGermanyJewish172$46,827

    1800-103.31845114.419.244.80.99.434.3Japanese132$35,937

    1810-202.61846154.422.251.7212.357.6Polish115$31,309

    1820-303.8184723523.3105.51.324.374.3Chinese112$30,492

    1830-4011.71848226.535.2112.91.19.958.5Italian112$30,492

    1840-5023.3184929755.1159.43.57.660.2German107$29,131

    1850-186031.1185037051.11641.611.578.9Anglo-Saxon107$29,131

    1851379.551.5221.22.420.972.5Irish103$28,042

    1852371.640.7159.54.111.3145.9Total U.S100$27,225

    1853368.637.6162.63.414.2141.9Filipino99$26,953

    1854427.858.6101.64.223.1215West Indian94$25,592

    1855200.347.649.61.314.671.9Mexican76$20,691

    1856200.444.754.31.312.471Korean67$18,241

    1857251.358.554.42.76.991.8Puerto Rican63$17,152

    Annual Combined Immigration from European Areas1858123.12926.92.74.645.3Black62$16,880

    Old Area: Great Britain, Ireland, Scandinavia, GermanyNew Area: Central Europe, Russia, Italy1859121.326.235.21.63.741.8Indian60$16,335

    1895134.20105.501860153.629.748.60.85.354.5Vietnamese42$11,435

    1896130.20185.30

    189784.70118.60Proportional Immigration, 1845-60

    189874.40128.70123

    189994.90200.90YearGreat BritainIrelandGermany1+21+2+32+3All otherTotal Columns 5+7

    190097.90305.70184516.8%39.2%30.0%55.9%85.9%69.1%14.1%100.0%

    1901106.50334.70184614.4%33.5%37.3%47.9%85.2%70.8%15.2%100.4%

    1902128.30457.7018479.9%44.9%31.6%54.8%86.4%76.5%13.6%100.0%

    1903186.60572.70184815.5%49.8%25.8%65.4%91.2%75.7%8.9%100.1%

    1904194.00515.50184918.6%53.7%20.3%72.2%92.5%73.9%7.4%99.9%

    1905238.30682.10185013.8%44.3%21.3%58.1%79.5%65.6%20.6%100.1%

    1906192.60753.90185113.6%58.3%19.1%71.9%91.0%77.4%9.9%100.9%

    1907201.20883.00185211.0%42.9%39.3%53.9%93.1%82.2%6.9%100.0%

    185310.2%44.1%38.5%54.3%92.8%82.6%7.3%100.1%

    185413.7%23.7%50.3%37.4%87.7%74.0%12.4%100.1%

    185523.8%24.8%35.9%48.5%84.4%60.7%16.0%100.4%

    185622.3%27.1%35.4%49.4%84.8%62.5%15.2%100.0%

    185723.3%21.6%36.5%44.9%81.5%58.2%19.3%100.8%

    185823.6%21.9%36.8%45.4%82.2%58.7%15.9%98.1%

    185921.6%29.0%34.5%50.6%85.1%63.5%14.7%99.8%

    186019.3%31.6%35.5%51.0%86.5%67.1%13.7%100.2%

    Immigrants per 1000 population, 1820-1960

    Native White Population of Foreign or Mixed Parentage by Country of Origin, 1930

    YearPer 1000

    18201.2

    18313.9CountriesNumberPercentage of Total

    18418.4British Isles5,295,00020.4%

    18519.3Germany5,264,00020.3%

    18616.4Italy2,756,00010.6%

    18716.2Central Europe2,555,0009.9%

    18819.2Scandinavia2,247,0008.7%

    18915.3USSR1,516,0005.9%

    190110.4Other Northwest Europe701,0002.7%

    19115.7All Other Europe252,0001.0%

    19213.5Asia152,0000.6%

    19310.4French Canada735,0002.8%

    19410.7Other Canada1,324,0005.1%

    19511.5Mexico583,0002.3%

    All Other2,525,0009.7%

    Total25,905,000

    Immigrant Origins by Percentage of Total

    Europe

    YearNorth and WestEast and CentralSouthOther American CountriesAsia

    1821 to 1890825382

    1891 to 192025392583

    &A

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    Ethnic Groups

    Family Income Index

    Jewish172

    Japanese132

    Polish115

    Chinese112

    Italian112

    German107

    Anglo-Saxon107

    Irish103

    Total US100

    Filipino99

    West Indian94

    Mexican76

    Puerto Rican63

    Black62

    Indian60

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    Slavery

    Capitalized Rent in an 18 yr. Old Slave

    YearsAverage PriceGross Rearing Cost

    1821-25$736$657

    1826-30$792$614

    1831-35$974$671

    1836-40$1,206$848

    1841-45$744$591

    1846-50$936$737

    1851-55$1,252$807

    1856-60$1,596$938

    &A

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    Women

    Table 2.1: Female Labor Force Participation Rates by Marital Status, Race, and Nativity, 1890-1980

    15 yrs. or older16 years or older

    1890190019201930194019501960197019801988

    Total18.920.623.724.825.829.535.141.651.1

    Married4.65.6911.713.821.630.639.550.1

    Single40.543.546.450.545.550.647.55161.5

    White16.317.921.623.724.528.534.240.950.9

    Married2.53.26.59.812.520.729.838.549.355.8

    Single38.441.54548.745.951.848.552.164.268.6

    NonWhite39.743.243.143.337.637.842.747.352.1

    Married22.52632.533.227.331.840.5505964.4

    Single59.560.558.852.141.94039.743.649.456.4

    Foreign Born19.819.1

    Married38.5

    Single70.873.8

    &A

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    Handout

    Net Immigration as a Proportion of Population Increase, 1800-1860Immigration, 1845-60 by origin, ( 1000's of persons)

    YearTotalGreat BritainIrelandScandinaviaOther Northwestern EuropeGermanyFamily Income Index

    YearsPercentage Increase1845114.419.244.80.99.434.3Jewish172

    1800-103.31846154.422.251.7212.357.6Japanese132

    1810-202.6184723523.3105.51.324.374.3Polish115

    1820-303.81848226.535.2112.91.19.958.5Chinese112

    1830-4011.7184929755.1159.43.57.660.2Italian112

    1840-5023.3185037051.11641.611.578.9German107

    1850-186031.11851379.551.5221.22.420.972.5Anglo-Saxon107

    1852371.640.7159.54.111.3145.9Irish103

    1853368.637.6162.63.414.2141.9Total US100

    1854427.858.6101.64.223.1215Filipino99

    1855200.347.649.61.314.671.9West Indian94

    1856200.444.754.31.312.471Mexican76

    1857251.358.554.42.76.991.8Puerto Rican63

    1858123.12926.92.74.645.3Black62

    1859121.326.235.21.63.741.8Indian60

    1860153.629.748.60.85.354.5

    Annual Combined Immigration from European Areas

    Proportional Immigration, 1845-60

    Old Area: Great Britain, Ireland, Scandinavia, GermanyNew Area: Central Europe, Russia, Italy123

    1895134.20105.50YearGreat BritainIrelandGermany1+21+2+32+3All otherTotal Columns 5+7

    1896130.20185.30184516.8%39.2%30.0%55.9%85.9%69.1%14.1%100.0%

    189784.70118.60184614.4%33.5%37.3%47.9%85.2%70.8%15.2%100.4%

    189874.40128.7018479.9%44.9%31.6%54.8%86.4%76.5%13.6%100.0%

    189994.90200.90184815.5%49.8%25.8%65.4%91.2%75.7%8.9%100.1%

    190097.90305.70184918.6%53.7%20.3%72.2%92.5%73.9%7.4%99.9%

    1901106.50334.70185013.8%44.3%21.3%58.1%79.5%65.6%20.6%100.1%

    1902128.30457.70185113.6%58.3%19.1%71.9%91.0%77.4%9.9%100.9%

    1903186.60572.70185211.0%42.9%39.3%53.9%93.1%82.2%6.9%100.0%

    1904194.00515.50185310.2%44.1%38.5%54.3%92.8%82.6%7.3%100.1%

    1905238.30682.10185413.7%23.7%50.3%37.4%87.7%74.0%12.4%100.1%

    1906192.60753.90185523.8%24.8%35.9%48.5%84.4%60.7%16.0%100.4%

    1907201.20883.00185622.3%27.1%35.4%49.4%84.8%62.5%15.2%100.0%

    185723.3%21.6%36.5%44.9%81.5%58.2%19.3%100.8%

    185823.6%21.9%36.8%45.4%82.2%58.7%15.9%98.1%

    185921.6%29.0%34.5%50.6%85.1%63.5%14.7%99.8%

    186019.3%31.6%35.5%51.0%86.5%67.1%13.7%100.2%

    &A

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    Chart1

    &A

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    Government

    Percentage Distribution of Federal Expenditures by Major Function, 1790-1860Percent Distribution of Federal Government Revenue Sources, 1800-1900Percent Distribution of the Federal Governments Direct Expenditures, 1902-75

    ItemPercent of TotalYearTariffsInternal RevenueLand SalesOtherYearNational DefensePostal ServiceEducationFarm SupportPublic WelfareNatural ResourcesVeteran's ServicesInterestIncome Security ProgramsOther

    Defense48.2%180083.7%7.5%0.0%8.8%190229.2%22.3%0.5%0.7%1.4%25.0%5.1%15.8%

    General Govt.15.2%181091.5%0.1%7.4%1.0%191326.1%28.2%0.5%0.5%3.1%18.5%2.4%20.7%

    Postal Service3.3%182083.9%0.6%6.3%9.2%192224.0%15.2%0.2%0.2%2.2%11.7%27.1%0.3%19.1%

    Indian Affairs4.4%183088.2%0.1%9.4%2.3%192718.1%20.9%0.2%0.3%3.3%17.0%22.4%0.9%16.9%

    Pensions4.9%184069.3%0.0%16.9%13.8%193217.9%19.7%0.3%0.0%4.0%23.0%14.4%1.3%19.4%

    Interest10.4%185091.0%4.3%4.7%193611.3%9.1%2.3%7.3%2.1%16.5%20.6%8.7%0.8%21.3%

    Aid to Foreign Commerce2.6%186094.9%3.2%1.9%194017.0%8.8%2.1%7.6%1.7%19.8%5.5%9.8%3.1%24.3%

    Aid to Domestic Commerce1.8%187047.3%45.0%0.8%6.9%194617.3%2.1%0.5%3.1%0.0%1.2%3.9%5.9%1.7%4.6%

    Foreign Indemnities3.1%188055.9%37.2%0.3%6.6%195043.3%5.4%5.8%6.4%0.1%3.8%6.6%10.4%10.6%7.6%

    Misc.6.1%189057.0%35.4%1.6%6.0%195561.8%3.9%1.1%5.5%0.1%2.4%4.3%6.9%8.6%5.1%

    190041.1%52.1%0.5%6.3%196046.7%0.5%1.4%3.6%2.4%1.8%5.4%9.5%22.3%6.4%

    196539.8%0.6%1.6%3.7%2.7%2.3%4.4%9.1%23.5%12.3%

    Percent Distribution of Federal, State, and Local Govt. Expenditures, 1890Percent Distribution of Direct Expenditures by Level of Government, 1902-75197040.8%0.8%3.7%3.2%2.6%1.3%4.4%9.3%25.0%8.9%

    197526.7%0.6%4.7%0.5%6.2%2.9%5.1%8.5%27.6%17.2%

    198022.7%5.4%1.5%14.6%3.6%8.9%25.5%

    National Defense6.1%FederalStateLocal198926.2%3.2%1.8%12.0%2.6%14.6%28.1%

    Veterans Benefits13.3%190234.0%8.2%57.8%

    Regualtion and Protection6.8%191329.8%9.2%61.0%

    Economic Development11.3%192239.2%11.7%49.1%Percent Distribution of State and Local Govt. Direct Expenditures 1902-1975

    (Transportation)10.1%192730.4%12.9%56.7%

    Social Welfare25.4%193232.4%16.3%51.3%YearEducationHighwaysPublic WelfareHospitals and HealthPolice, Fire, and SanitationNatural ResourcesGeneral ControlUtility and Liquor StoresTrust ExspendituresOther

    (Educations)17.3%193649.3%14.6%36.1%190223.3%16.0%3.4%5.5%12.9%3.5%12.9%7.5%15.0%

    Interest9.8%194045.0%17.4%37.6%191325.6%18.6%2.3%4.8%11.6%3.2%9.4%8.2%0.3%16.0%

    General Govt.9.9%194682.4%6.2%11.4%192230.2%22.9%2.1%4.6%9.5%2.6%5.5%6.4%1.3%14.9%

    Misc.17.4%195060.3%15.7%24.0%192728.6%23.2%1.9%4.6%10.1%3.2%5.3%6.3%1.4%15.4%

    195563.5%12.9%23.6%193227.5%20.7%5.3%5.4%9.0%3.7%5.6%6.2%1.4%15.2%

    196059.7%14.6%25.7%193625.6%16.8%9.7%5.5%8.5%3.5%5.9%8.3%1.8%14.4%

    196557.9%15.1%27.0%194023.5%14.0%10.3%5.4%7.2%3.4%5.0%11.8%6.1%13.3%

    197055.5%16.8%27.7%194623.9%11.9%10.0%5.8%8.1%3.4%5.0%12.6%9.3%10.3%

    197552.3%18.7%29.0%195025.7%13.6%10.5%6.3%7.5%3.5%3.7%9.8%8.5%10.9%

    195529.5%16.0%7.9%6.3%7.6%3.2%3.6%9.6%6.9%9.4%

    196030.7%15.5%7.2%6.2%7.5%3.2%3.5%8.3%6.6%11.3%

    Government Expenditures as a Percent of GNP.196533.0%14.1%7.3%6.2%7.2%0.0%3.2%8.2%5.7%11.8%

    197035.6%11.1%9.9%6.5%6.7%3.1%3.2%6.4%4.9%12.6%

    YearGovernment Purchases as a Percent of GNPGovernment Budget Expnditures as a percent of GNPGovernment Civilian Employees as percent of Civilian Labor Force197533.1%8.5%10.3%7.1%7.3%2.9%1.9%6.5%6.9%15.5%

    19006.0%7.3%3.9%1980

    19106.1%5.7%4.5%1989

    19206.6%12.1%5.7%

    193010.2%21.4%6.4%

    194014.2%18.7%7.6%

    195013.4%23.0%9.7%Percent Distribution of Federal Revenue Sources

    196019.8%28.6%12.0%

    197022.2%33.5%15.1%YearIndividual Income TaxCorporate Income TaxEmployment TaxesExcise TaxesEstate and Gift TaxesTariffsOther

    197121.8%33.5%15.3%190050.1%0.5%41.1%8.3%

    197221.3%33.5%15.3%191039.6%49.4%11.0%

    197320.4%32.2%15.4%192012.2%1.6%4.8%

    197421.2%32.6%15.4%193027.5%30.2%13.5%1.6%14.0%13.2%

    197521.9%35.8%15.7%194016.7%19.5%14.2%32.0%6.1%5.9%5.6%

    197621.1%36.2%15.5%195041.5%26.3%6.4%18.4%1.7%1.0%4.7%

    197720.6%35.2%15.3%196044.0%23.2%15.9%12.6%1.7%1.2%1.4%

    197820.1%34.6%15.3%197046.7%16.9%23.4%8.1%1.9%1.2%1.8%

    197919.6%33.9%15.2%197543.6%14.5%30.8%5.9%1.6%1.3%2.3%

    198020.4%36.0%15.2%198047.2%12.5%30.5%4.7%1.2%1.4%

    198120.2%36.0%14.8%198943.6%11.0%37.3%3.5%0.8%1.7%

    198221.2%38.0%14.3%

    198320.7%38.2%14.2%

    198420.4%n.a.14.1%

    YearGovernment Purchases as a Percent of GNPGovernment Budget Expenditures as a Percent of GNPYearGovernment Purchases as a Percent of GNPGovernment Budget Expenditures as a Percent of GNP

    19006.0%194812.3%18.4%

    19015.6%194914.9%

    19025.7%7.3%195013.4%23.0%Outbreak of Korean War

    19036.2%195118.2%

    19046.0%195221.7%27.1%

    19056.1%195322.5%28.5%

    19065.6%195420.7%27.9%

    19076.2%195518.8%25.7%

    19087.6%195618.8%25.6%

    19096.0%195719.6%26.5%

    19106.1%195821.1%28.5%

    19117.2%195920.0%29.6%

    19126.8%196019.8%28.6%

    19136.4%5.7%196120.6%29.6%

    19147.4%196220.9%29.8%Vietnam War

    19157.2%196320.7%29.8%

    19165.9%196420.4%29.7%

    19178.9%World War I196520.0%28.2%

    191821.3%196621.0%29.0%

    191912.0%196722.5%31.6%

    19206.6%196822.8%32.5%

    19218.5%196922.1%32.3%

    19228.0%12.1%197022.2%33.5%

    19237.2%197121.8%33.5%

    19247.7%197221.3%33.0%

    19257.9%197320.4%32.2%

    19267.5%197421.2%32.6%

    19278.2%10.6%197521.9%35.8%

    19288.3%197621.1%36.2%

    19298.1%197720.6%35.2%

    193010.2%Onset of Great Depression197820.1%34.6%

    193112.1%197919.6%33.9%

    193214.0%21.4%198020.4%36.0%

    193314.4%198120.2%36.0%

    193415.1%21.2%198221.2%38.0%

    193513.9%198320.7%38.2%

    193614.5%19.5%198420.4%

    193713.2%

    193815.3%18.3%

    193914.9%

    194014.2%18.7%

    194119.9%World War II

    194237.7%28.1%

    194346.3%

    194446.1%47.7%

    194539.0%

    194613.1%31.8%

    194710.9%

    &A

    Page &P

    Civil War Deaths

    Total Deaths

    Total DeathsBattle DeathsOther DeathsWounds Not Mortal

    Civil War (Union)364,511140,414224,097281,881

    Civil War (Confederacy)258,000199,515

    Spanish American War2,4463852,0611,662

    WWI116,51653,40263,114204,002

    WW2405,399291,557113,842640,846

    Korean Conflict54,24633,62920,617103,284

    Vietnam (American)56,88646,49810,388153,000

    Vietnam (North Vietnamese)660,000

    Vietnames (South Vietnamese)220,357

    6-Day War (Israel)1,000

    6-Day War (Egypt, Jordan, Syria)18,000

    Deaths and Wounds as a Percent of Male Population

    PopulationPercent of Male Population Killed or WoundedPercent of Male 15-24 Population Killed or Wounded (17% of population male, 15-24)

    Civil War31,443,3217.02%41.30%

    Spanish American War50,000,0000.02%0.10%

    WWI92,228,4960.70%4.09%

    WW2132,164,5691.58%9.31%

    Korean Conflict151,325,7980.21%1.22%

    Vietnam (U. S.)203,302,0310.21%1.21%

    Vietnam (Vietnamese)39,463,9104.46%26.24%

    6-Day War (Israel)2,746,8980.07%0.43%

    6-Day War (Egypt, Jordan, Syria)38,662,0000.09%0.55%

    Annual Death rate per 1000 average strength

    Total DeathsBattle DeathsOther Deaths

    Civil War104.440.164.3

    Spanish American War36.6

    WWI35.517.118.4

    WW211.38.63

    Korean Conflict5.53.42.1

    Vietnam0.70.60.1

    Probability of Service

    Total Personal Serving in WarPercent of Male Population, 15-24 in Armed ServicesPercent of Armed Services Serving AbroadPercent of Male Population, 15-24 Serving Abroad

    Civil War2,213,00041.40%

    Spanish American War307,0003.61%29%1.05%

    WWI4,735,00030.20%53%16.01%

    WW216,113,00071.72%73%52.35%

    Korean Conflict5,720,00022.23%56%12.45%

    Vietnam8,744,00025.30%

    Relative Mortality Risk

    Immigration Data

    Black Income

    Table 2: Black Male Wages as a Percent of White Male Wages, 1940-1980

    Table 1: Mean Male Income by Race 1940-1980 (1984 dollars)

    Census Years

    Census YearWhite MenBlack MenRatioPercent of Change Occuring before DateYears of Market Experience19401950196019701980

    1980$25,791$18,72373%100%1 to 546.761.860.275.184.2

    1970$25,666$16,52764%72%6 to 1047.56159.170.176.6

    1960$19,959$11,48358%49%11 to 1544.458.359.466.27.5

    1950$14,332$7,91255%41%16 to 2044.456.658.462.871.2

    1940$10,459$4,53143%21 to 2542.354.157.662.767.8

    26 to 3041.753.256.260.666.9

    31 to 3540.250.353.86066.5

    36 to 4039.846.955.960.368.5

    All43.355.257.564.472.6

    Table 3: Extent of Overlap Between Black and White Income Distributions

    Percent of Black Men Whose Income Exceeds White Income at the:Percent of White Men Whose Income Exceeds Black Income at the

    YearBottom QuarterMedianTop QuarterBottom QuarterMedianTop Quarter

    1980562910877045

    197045225907857

    196038121928166

    195036122928266

    19403181958470

    Note: The way to read the chart is as follows. In 1980, only 10% of black men had an income that exceed the income of a white man whose income was in the top 25% of the income distribution. In 1980, 29% of black men had an income that exceeded the median

    Table 4: Men in the Middle Class

    WhiteBlacks

    YearBelowMiddle ClassAboveBelowMiddle ClassAbove

    1980116029206812

    19709662524715

    196012642439592

    195018492348502

    194030403076222

    Table 5: Percentage Increase in Black Annual Income Compared with Whites at Selected Percentiles

    PercentilePercent IncreasePercentilePercent Increase

    24.86054.9

    48.47057.4

    630.78049

    836.99046.2

    1048.19250.6

    2048.29448.1

    3050.29651.6

    4045.29854.7

    5045.5

    Table 6: Percentage Growth in Black-White Male Ratios of Weekly Wages

    Growth Between

    Years of Work Experience50-4060-5070-6080-7080-40

    1 to 528.1-2.722.111.558.9

    6 to 1025.1-3.217.18.847.8

    11 to 1527.11.910.910.450.3

    16 to 2024.43.17.312.547.3

    21 to 2524.66.38.67.747.2

    26 to 3024.25.67.59.947.2

    31 to 3522.56.610.810.450.3

    36 to 4016.417.57.512.754.2

    All24.24.111.31251.6

    Table 7: Percentage Growth in Black-White Weekly Wage Ratios by Education

    Years of Schooling

    Decade0 to 45 to 78 to 111213 to 1516+All

    1940-198035.536.530.832.84544.851.6

    1940-1950514.416.622.314.410.824.2

    1950-196012.95.5-2.2-6.86.910.44.1

    1960-19702.88.578.717.619.311.3

    1970-198015.18.17.48.66.24.312

    Table 8: Black Male Wages as a Percentage of White Males by Labor Market CohortReal Black and White Income in 1880 and 1900

    Median Year of Initial Labor Market Work19401950196019701980SouthernSouthernNational

    197884.2RuralTotalTotal

    197376.6TotalIncomeIncome

    196873.5Income

    196375.171.2Per Capita1880Black$36.78$38.43$43.06

    195860.270.167.8IncomeWhite$62.49$79.44$142.64

    195359.166.266.9B/W Ratio0.590.480.3

    194861.859.462.866.51900Black$46.37$49.96$56.86

    19436058.462.768.5White$91.23$117.87$206.70

    193846.758.357.660.6B/W Ratio0.510.420.28

    193347.556.656.2601880-1900Black1.17%1.32%1.40%

    192844.454.153.860.3Growth RateWhite1.91%1.99%1.87%

    192344.453.255.9Per1880Black$65.93$68.90$77.20

    191812.350.3WorkerWhite$99.43$126.38$226.95

    191341.746.9IncomeB/W Ratio0.660.550.34

    190840.21900Black$81.31$87.61$99.72

    190339.8White$140.04$180.94$317.31

    All43.355.257.564.472.6B/W Ratio0.580.480.31

    1880-1900Black1.05%1.21%1.29%

    Growth RateWhite1.73%1.81%1.69%

    &CBlack Income Statistics

    Black Income After CW

    Yearly Value of Freedom per Capita (1879 Prices)

    Ng and Virts

    Ransom and SutchImproved Residual MethodDirect Observation of Wages

    Black Income in 1859$27.66$27.66$27.66

    Black Income in 1879$35.59$40.24$40.24

    Value of Leisure$13.75-$21.00$14.82-$23.44$31.01-$36.78

    Value of Freedom$22.05-$29.01$27.40-$36.02$43.59-$49.36

    Increase in Income78-105%99-130%158-178%

    Real Black and White Income in 1880 and 1900

    SouthernSouthernNational

    RuralTotalTotal

    TotalIncomeIncome

    Income

    Per Capita1880Black$36.78$38.43$43.06

    IncomeWhite$62.49$79.44$142.64

    B/W Ratio0.590.480.3

    1900Black$46.37$49.96$56.86

    White$91.23$117.87$206.70

    B/W Ratio0.510.420.28

    1880-1900Black1.17%1.32%1.40%

    Growth RateWhite1.91%1.99%1.87%

    Per1880Black$65.93$68.90$77.20

    WorkerWhite$99.43$126.38$226.95

    IncomeB/W Ratio0.660.550.34

    1900Black$81.31$87.61$99.72

    White$140.04$180.94$317.31

    B/W Ratio0.580.480.31

    1880-1900Black1.05%1.21%1.29%

    Growth RateWhite1.73%1.81%1.69%

    &CBlack Income after Civil War

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    MBD002356E5.unknown

    MBD002356E3.unknown

  • Major Features of first wave of immigration First Wave of immigrants from Northern Europe. (Example of push phenomena)First upsurge came from the British Isles as a result of the potato famine-economics of a potato economy.Potato a wonder vegetable. Potato allows the greatest level of population density.When the potato crop failed, suddenly, the land could not support the existing population.More than 1 million died in late 1840s in Ireland-life expectancy at birth dropped to around 21. In Ireland, 1/3rd of the population emigrated or dropped dead in a short period in the 1840s.By 1914 the population in Ireland was 1/2 of what it was before the potato famine.1846-55, 1.3 mil. Irish immigrated to US.Germany produced another 1 mil. immigrants. Mainly the result of political upheavals.

  • Immigration, 1845-60 by origin, ( 1000's of persons)

    Growth 1800 -1860

    Indices of Economic Growth, 1800-1860Value of Component Indicies

    YearPer Capita Output IndexAnnual Per Capita Growth

    180064.4YearZ

    181061.9-0.418001.9570.8260.7640.9660.644

    182067.60.918101.9570.8370.7390.970.619

    1830842.218201.9570.790.7660.9870.676

    18401001.818301.9570.7070.90.9760.84

    1850110.4118401.9570.634111

    18601372.218501.9570.54811.0651.13

    18601.9570.5321.2151.0651.38

    Source: Paul David, "The Growth of Real Product in the U.S. before 1840: New Evidence , Controlled Conjectures, JEH 27 (June 1967)

    Sources of Change in Per Capita Output, 1800-1860

    DecadeLabor Force ParticipationShift out of AgricultureIncreased Agricultural Productivity

    18000.30-1.00-3.90

    18101.903.909.20

    1820-1.206.6024.30

    18302.505.5019.00

    18406.506.1013.00

    18500.001.1022.10

    1800-403.5015.8055.30

    1840-606.507.2038.00

    Based on Variant II in 1840 prices.

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    US Growth 1840-1960

    Rates of Growth: Gross National Product, Population, Labor Force In the U.S., 1840-1960

    ProductPopulationLabor ForceProduct per CapitaProduct per Worker

    Successive Decades4.243.113.571.10.64

    1839-494.953.093.181.81.71

    1849-591.992.392.07-0.39-0.08

    1859-694.952.333.012.561.88

    1869-79

    Overlapping Decades

    178-82-1882-923.732.262.71.441

    1883-87-1893-973.12.022.51.050.58

    1888-92-1898-19024.041.82.52.21.5

    1893-97-1903-075.031.782.63.192.36

    1898-1902-1908-123.711.952.671.731.01

    1903-07-1913-172.61.871.950.720.63

    1908-12-1918-222.61.51.051.081.53

    1913-17-1923-273.621.41.142.192.45

    1918-22-19293.991.471.352.492.61

    1923-27-1933-37-0.350.981.16-1.33-1.49

    1929-1939-411.370.741.210.620.15

    1933-37-1943-477.020.961.8465.09

    1939-41-1948-524.271.391.42.842.83

    1943-47-1953-572.471.670.80.781.65

    1948-52-1959-613.241.711.191.52.03

    Longer Periods

    1840-804.032.732.961.261.04

    1880-19203.521.882.231.611.26

    1920-603.151.311.281.811.84

    1840-19603.561.972.151.561.38

    Abosolute Values

    1959-61509179.969.928297282

    1959-61 as a multiple of 184066.710.412.96.45.2

    18407.6317.75.424461408

    Source: Kuznets, Notes on the Pattern of U.S. Economic Growth, in S. Engerman and R. Fogel, The Reinterpretation of American Economic History

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    World Growth

    Rate of Growth and Per Capita Income for Selected Countries for Long Periods.

    Duration of PeriodProductPopulationProduct per Captia

    Great Britain

    1841-81402.541.191.33

    1881-1921401.770.910.86

    United Kingdom

    1921-1957-59371.880.431.44

    Total 1841-1957-591172.070.861.2

    France

    1841-50-1861-70202.230.391.84

    1871-80-1901-103020.221.77

    1901-10-1920-2818.51.46-0.131.6

    1920-28-1958-60351.550.371.18

    Total, 1841-50-1958-60103.51.80.241.55

    Germany

    1913 Boundaries

    1851-55-1871-75201.630.740.89

    1871-75-1913403.091.21.87

    Interwar Boundaries

    1913-1935-37230.570.530.04

    Federal Republic

    1936-1958-60233.971.42.53

    Total, 1913-1958-60462.250.971.28

    Total, 1851-55-1958-601062.451.011.43

    Sweden

    1861-65-1881-85202.880.722.15

    1881-85-1921-25402.690.662.01

    1921-25-1958-60363.770.593.16

    Total, 1861-65-1958-60963.130.642.47

    European Russia

    1860-1913532.671.31.35

    USSR

    1913-28150.540.540

    1928-58304.40.673.71

    Total, 1913-58453.10.632.45

    Total, 1860-1958982.870.991.86

    Japan

    1878-82-1918-22404.141.053.05

    1918-22-1958-60393.971.362.57

    Total, 1878-82-1958-60794.051.212.81

    Source: Kuznets, Notes.. in Engerman and Fogel, Reinterpretations.

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    productivity

    National Economy: Output and Productivity Ratios, 1869-1959

    YearOutput (Real Net Product)Output per Unit of labor inputOutput per unit of capital InputTotal Factor Productivity

    18697.83567.742

    187915.75490.262.5

    188921.850.285.558.3

    189933.961.287.667.8

    130351.369.892.175.6

    191970.379.391.782.6

    1929100100100100

    1939104.8117.2111.5115.9

    1949159.7138.7130.5136.4

    1959233.5179.8134.4169.1

    Source: Peter George p. 12

    Agriculture

    YearOutput (Real Net Product)Output per Unit of labor inputOutput per unit of capital InputTotal Factor Productivity

    186928.953.976.760.8

    187945.264.284.370.7

    188957.269.287.675.5

    189972.579.892.884.6

    130378.881.487.684

    191987.385.685.785.6

    1929100100100100

    1939109.2122.6111.7118.4

    1949129.9175.3123.5153.8

    1959170354.5141.6250.4

    Source: Peter George p. 12

    Manufacturing

    YearOutput (Real Net Product)Output per Unit of labor inputOutput per unit of capital InputTotal Factor Productivity

    18697.129.6158.936.4

    187910.232.7134.639.7

    188918.341.410448.2

    189927.547.793.953.9

    130343.453.579.857.9

    1919615865.759.6

    1929100100100100

    1939102.5123.9120.8122.8

    1949174139.8140.3139.9

    1959284.3195.6165.3191.1

    Source: Peter George p. 12

    &CProductivity Data

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    Pop., Labor, Land, and Capital

    Indexes of Population, Labor, Land, Capital and Net National Product, 1840-1960.

    YearPopulationLaborLandCapitalNet National Product

    1840100100100100100

    1870235228240512324

    190044751456623431037

    1930724863108565752952

    1960106113081165105315994

    Source Peter George, The Emergence of Industrial America p. 5

    Accounting for Growth

    Annual Rate of Growth

    PeriodLaborCapitalLandNNP

    1840-603.426.573.734.75

    1870-19302.244.352.553.75

    1940-19901.563.140.343.22

    Percentage of Growth in NNP Attributable to:

    PeriodLaborCapitalLandProductivity

    1840-6049%26%10%15%

    1870-193043%27%4%27%

    1940-199041%14%0%45%

    Source: Atack and Passel, p. 19

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    TFP Problem from Exam

    Total Factor Productivity ExampleTotal Factor Productivity ExerciseTotal Factor Productivity Exercise

    184018601850195018501950

    Output$4,500$8,550OutputOutput$2,000$57,500

    Amount of Land100150Amount of Land100500Amount of Land100500

    Amount of Labor5060Amount of Labor1002000Amount of Labor1002000

    Price of Land$20$25Price of Land$5$15Price of Land$5$15

    Price of Labor$50$80Price of Labor$15$25Price of Labor$15$25

    Factor Share of Land0.4440.439Factor Share of LandFactor Share of Land0.2500.130

    Factor Share of Labor0.5560.561Factor Share of LaborFactor Share of Labor0.7500.870

    Index of Factors67.9089.92Index of Factors1Index of Factors1001669.169

    Factor Share of Land (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.442aFactor Share of Land (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)aFactor Share of Land (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.190a

    Factor Share of Labor (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.558bFactor Share of Labor (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)bFactor Share of Labor (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.810b

    Percent Change in Output0.900Percent Change in OutputPercent Change in Output27.750

    Percent Change in Land0.500Percent Change in LandPercent Change in Land4.000

    Percent Change in Labor0.200Percent Change in LaborPercent Change in Labor19.000

    Change in Total Factor Productivity0.568Change in Total Factor ProductivityChange in Total Factor Productivity11.603

    Instructions: Output has increased from Year 1 to Year 2. How much of the increase is due to more factors of production (land and labor) and how much is due to improved productivity? To answer this question first compute the index of factors (I). Note tha

    TFP Excercise

    Total Factor Productivity ExampleTotal Factor Productivity ExerciseTotal Factor Productivity Exercise

    185019501850195018501950

    Output$2,750$9,000OutputOutput$2,000$57,500

    Amount of Capital5075Amount of Land100500Amount of Land100500

    Amount of Labor150300Amount of Labor1002000Amount of Labor1002000

    Price of Capital$10$20Price of Land$5$15Price of Land$5$15

    Price of Labor$15$25Price of Labor$15$25Price of Labor$15$25

    Factor Share of Capital0.1820.167Factor Share of LandFactor Share of Land0.2500.130

    Factor Share of Labor0.8180.833Factor Share of LaborFactor Share of Labor0.7500.870

    Index of Factors122.8406031059238.110Index of Factors1Index of Factors1001669.169

    Factor Share of Capital (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.174aFactor Share of Land (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)aFactor Share of Land (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.190a

    Factor Share of Labor (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.826bFactor Share of Labor (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)bFactor Share of Labor (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.810b

    Percent Change in Output2.273Percent Change in OutputPercent Change in Output27.750

    Percent Change in Capital0.500Percent Change in LandPercent Change in Land4.000

    Percent Change in Labor1.000Percent Change in LaborPercent Change in Labor19.000

    Change in Total Factor Productivity1.360Change in Total Factor ProductivityChange in Total Factor Productivity11.603

    Instructions: Output has increased from Year 1 to Year 2. How much of the increase is due to more factors of production (land and labor) and how much is due to improved productivity? To answer this question first compute the index of factors (I). Note tha

    Answer to Take Home Assignment

    Real GDPPopulationReal GDP per Capita

    1948$1,491,000,000,000146,631,302$10,168.36

    1996$6,994,800,000,000265,179,411$26,377.61

    Growth Rate3.27%1.24%2.01%

    Real GDPPopulationReal GDP per Capita

    1969$3,393,600,000,000202,676,946$16,743.89

    1996$6,994,800,000,000265,179,411$26,377.61

    Growth Rate2.72%1.00%1.70%

    Total Factor Productivity

    Total Factor Productivity Example

    Year 1Year 2

    Output$12,500$19,000

    Amount of Land10080

    Amount of Labor100150

    Price of Land$25$50

    Price of Labor$100$100

    Factor Share of Land0.2000.211

    Factor Share of Labor0.8000.789

    Index of Factors1131.842

    Factor Share of Land (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.205a

    Factor Share of Labor (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.795b

    Percent Change in Output0.520

    Percent Change in Land-0.200

    Percent Change in Labor0.500

    Change in Total Factor Productivity0.164

    Instructions: Output has increased from Year 1 to Year 2. How much of the increase is due to more factors of production (land and labor) and how much is due to improved productivity? To answer this question first compute the index of factors (I). Note tha

    &CEconomics 375, American Economic History, CSUN

    David

    Value of Component Indicies

    YearZYearZOutput

    18001.9570.8260.7640.9660.64418001.9570.8260.7640.9660.644

    18101.9570.8370.7390.970.61918401.9570.634111

    18201.9570.790.7660.9870.676

    18301.9570.7070.90.9760.84

    18401.9570.634111

    18501.9570.54811.0651.13

    18601.9570.5321.2151.0651.38

    &CPaul David Results

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    Lifespan Handouts

    &CLifespan Tables and Graphs

    Population

    Percentage of WomenRacial Fertility and Density

    18101840Change in Population

    WhiteNo Children7 or more ChildrenFertility IndexPopulation DensityFertility IndexPopulation DensityGrowth Rate102550100200

    1800na50East Coast1%1.101.281.642.707.32

    1840835Middle Atlantic134420.1100645.32%1.221.642.697.2452.48

    18601027New England107923.780036.13%1.342.094.3819.22369.36

    1900207North Central4%1.482.677.1150.502,550.75

    1925105West18100.514801.65%1.633.3911.47131.5017,292.58

    193476East17063.1129115.2

    South Central

    NonwhiteWest15572.214954.6

    1840652East17013.9142414.3

    1860944

    19002813Fertility Index-Children under 5 per 1000 white females 20-44 years of age

    19251816Population Density-Population per square mile.

    1934918

    Women in the Labor Force, 1830-1979Death Rate

    Percentage of Population

    WhiteNonwhiteUSGreat Britain

    TotalMarriedTotalMarriedDateDeath Rate per thousandDeath Rate per thousand

    183080909017004028

    1890132382218502324

    19502821373219101517

    197950485360198057

    Percentage of the Total Decline Which Occurred Between 1700 and Date

    18504919

    19107152

    1980100100

    Source: Fogel, Nutrition and the Decline in Mortality, pp. 440

    Life Expectancy

    England and Wales (both sexes)British PeerageBritish PeerageUS Native Born males

    Birth Cohortat birthat birthat age 10at age 10

    18th

    135.135.139.450.3

    233.838.844.455.5

    336.344.646.355.8

    43746.946.151.9

    19th

    149.348.352.3

    241.552.249.548.9

    344.654.751.455.3

    453.747.4

    20th

    160.15456.9

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    Nutrition and Mortality

    Life ExpectancyEstimated Average Final Heights of Men who Reached Maturity Between 1750 and 1875 in Six European Populations in Quarter Centuries.

    USGreat BritainEngland and Wales (both sexes)British PeerageBritish PeerageUS Native Born malesRowDate of Maturity by Century and QuarterGreat BritainNorwaySwedenFranceDenmarkHungary

    DateDeath Rate per thousandDeath Rate per thousandBirth Cohortat birthat birthat age 10at age 10118.3165.9163.9168.1168.7

    1700402818th218.4167.9166.7163165.7165.8

    18502324135.135.139.450.3319.1168166.7164.3165.4163.9

    19101517233.838.844.455.5419.2171.6168165.2166.8164.2

    198057336.344.646.355.8519.3169.3168.6169.5165.6165.3

    43746.946.151.9620.3175178.3177.6172176170.9

    Percentage of the Total Decline Which Occurred Between 1700 and Date

    1850491919th

    19107152149.348.352.3

    1980100100241.552.249.548.9

    Source: Fogel, Nutrition and the Decline in Mortality, pp. 440344.654.751.455.3

    453.747.4

    20th

    160.15456.9

    Estimated Average Final Heights of Men who Reached Maturity Between 1750 and 1875 in Six European Populations in Quarter Centuries.

    A Comparison of the Probable French and English Distributions of the Daily Consumption of Kilgram Calories per Consuming Unit Toward the End of the 18th CenturyHeight (inches)

    France circa 1785England circa 1790RowDate of Maturity by Century and QuarterGreat BritainNorwaySwedenFranceDenmarkHungary

    DecileDaily kcal ConsumptionCumulative PercentageDaily kcal ConsumptionCumulative Percentage118.364.763.965.665.8

    Highest36721004329100218.465.565.063.664.664.7

    Ninth298174351484319.165.565.064.164.563.9

    Eight267671315571419.266.965.564.465.164.0

    Seventh245759289759519.366.065.866.164.664.5

    Sixth227648268448620.368.369.569.367.168.666.7

    Fifth211438249238Source: Fogel June 1994 AER

    Fourth195829230929

    Third179821212021

    Second161413190313

    First1310615456

    Mean22902700

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    Immigration

    Income by Race, Religion, and Ethnicity, 1980

    Family Income Index

    Net Immigration as a Proportion of Population Increase, 1800-1860Immigration, 1845-60 by origin, ( 1000's of persons)(US Average=100)Family Income

    YearsPercentage IncreaseYearTotalGreat BritainIrelandScandinaviaOther Northwestern EuropeGermanyJewish172$46,827

    1800-103.31845114.419.244.80.99.434.3Japanese132$35,937

    1810-202.61846154.422.251.7212.357.6Polish115$31,309

    1820-303.8184723523.3105.51.324.374.3Chinese112$30,492

    1830-4011.71848226.535.2112.91.19.958.5Italian112$30,492

    1840-5023.3184929755.1159.43.57.660.2German107$29,131

    1850-186031.1185037051.11641.611.578.9Anglo-Saxon107$29,131

    1851379.551.5221.22.420.972.5Irish103$28,042

    1852371.640.7159.54.111.3145.9Total U.S100$27,225

    1853368.637.6162.63.414.2141.9Filipino99$26,953

    1854427.858.6101.64.223.1215West Indian94$25,592

    1855200.347.649.61.314.671.9Mexican76$20,691

    1856200.444.754.31.312.471Korean67$18,241

    1857251.358.554.42.76.991.8Puerto Rican63$17,152

    Annual Combined Immigration from European Areas1858123.12926.92.74.645.3Black62$16,880

    Old Area: Great Britain, Ireland, Scandinavia, GermanyNew Area: Central Europe, Russia, Italy1859121.326.235.21.63.741.8Indian60$16,335

    1895134.20105.501860153.629.748.60.85.354.5Vietnamese42$11,435

    1896130.20185.30

    189784.70118.60Proportional Immigration, 1845-60

    189874.40128.70123

    189994.90200.90YearGreat BritainIrelandGermany1+21+2+32+3All otherTotal Columns 5+7

    190097.90305.70184516.8%39.2%30.0%55.9%85.9%69.1%14.1%100.0%

    1901106.50334.70184614.4%33.5%37.3%47.9%85.2%70.8%15.2%100.4%

    1902128.30457.7018479.9%44.9%31.6%54.8%86.4%76.5%13.6%100.0%

    1903186.60572.70184815.5%49.8%25.8%65.4%91.2%75.7%8.9%100.1%

    1904194.00515.50184918.6%53.7%20.3%72.2%92.5%73.9%7.4%99.9%

    1905238.30682.10185013.8%44.3%21.3%58.1%79.5%65.6%20.6%100.1%

    1906192.60753.90185113.6%58.3%19.1%71.9%91.0%77.4%9.9%100.9%

    1907201.20883.00185211.0%42.9%39.3%53.9%93.1%82.2%6.9%100.0%

    185310.2%44.1%38.5%54.3%92.8%82.6%7.3%100.1%

    185413.7%23.7%50.3%37.4%87.7%74.0%12.4%100.1%

    185523.8%24.8%35.9%48.5%84.4%60.7%16.0%100.4%

    185622.3%27.1%35.4%49.4%84.8%62.5%15.2%100.0%

    185723.3%21.6%36.5%44.9%81.5%58.2%19.3%100.8%

    185823.6%21.9%36.8%45.4%82.2%58.7%15.9%98.1%

    185921.6%29.0%34.5%50.6%85.1%63.5%14.7%99.8%

    186019.3%31.6%35.5%51.0%86.5%67.1%13.7%100.2%

    Immigrants per 1000 population, 1820-1960

    Native White Population of Foreign or Mixed Parentage by Country of Origin, 1930

    YearPer 1000

    18201.2

    18313.9CountriesNumberPercentage of Total

    18418.4British Isles5,295,00020.4%

    18519.3Germany5,264,00020.3%

    18616.4Italy2,756,00010.6%

    18716.2Central Europe2,555,0009.9%

    18819.2Scandinavia2,247,0008.7%

    18915.3USSR1,516,0005.9%

    190110.4Other Northwest Europe701,0002.7%

    19115.7All Other Europe252,0001.0%

    19213.5Asia152,0000.6%

    19310.4French Canada735,0002.8%

    19410.7Other Canada1,324,0005.1%

    19511.5Mexico583,0002.3%

    All Other2,525,0009.7%

    Total25,905,000

    Immigrant Origins by Percentage of Total

    Europe

    YearNorth and WestEast and CentralSouthOther American CountriesAsia

    1821 to 1890825382

    1891 to 192025392583

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    Ethnic Groups

    Family Income Index

    Jewish172

    Japanese132

    Polish115

    Chinese112

    Italian112

    German107

    Anglo-Saxon107

    Irish103

    Total US100

    Filipino99

    West Indian94

    Mexican76

    Puerto Rican63

    Black62

    Indian60

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    Slavery

    Capitalized Rent in an 18 yr. Old Slave

    YearsAverage PriceGross Rearing Cost

    1821-25$736$657

    1826-30$792$614

    1831-35$974$671

    1836-40$1,206$848

    1841-45$744$591

    1846-50$936$737

    1851-55$1,252$807

    1856-60$1,596$938

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    Women

    Table 2.1: Female Labor Force Participation Rates by Marital Status, Race, and Nativity, 1890-1980

    15 yrs. or older16 years or older

    1890190019201930194019501960197019801988

    Total18.920.623.724.825.829.535.141.651.1

    Married4.65.6911.713.821.630.639.550.1

    Single40.543.546.450.545.550.647.55161.5

    White16.317.921.623.724.528.534.240.950.9

    Married2.53.26.59.812.520.729.838.549.355.8

    Single38.441.54548.745.951.848.552.164.268.6

    NonWhite39.743.243.143.337.637.842.747.352.1

    Married22.52632.533.227.331.840.5505964.4

    Single59.560.558.852.141.94039.743.649.456.4

    Foreign Born19.819.1

    Married38.5

    Single70.873.8

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    Handout

    Net Immigration as a Proportion of Population Increase, 1800-1860Immigration, 1845-60 by origin, ( 1000's of persons)

    YearTotalGreat BritainIrelandScandinaviaOther Northwestern EuropeGermanyFamily Income Index

    YearsPercentage Increase1845114.419.244.80.99.434.3Jewish172

    1800-103.31846154.422.251.7212.357.6Japanese132

    1810-202.6184723523.3105.51.324.374.3Polish115

    1820-303.81848226.535.2112.91.19.958.5Chinese112

    1830-4011.7184929755.1159.43.57.660.2Italian112

    1840-5023.3185037051.11641.611.578.9German107

    1850-186031.11851379.551.5221.22.420.972.5Anglo-Saxon107

    1852371.640.7159.54.111.3145.9Irish103

    1853368.637.6162.63.414.2141.9Total US100

    1854427.858.6101.64.223.1215Filipino99

    1855200.347.649.61.314.671.9West Indian94

    1856200.444.754.31.312.471Mexican76

    1857251.358.554.42.76.991.8Puerto Rican63

    1858123.12926.92.74.645.3Black62

    1859121.326.235.21.63.741.8Indian60

    1860153.629.748.60.85.354.5

    Annual Combined Immigration from European Areas

    Proportional Immigration, 1845-60

    Old Area: Great Britain, Ireland, Scandinavia, GermanyNew Area: Central Europe, Russia, Italy123

    1895134.20105.50YearGreat BritainIrelandGermany1+21+2+32+3All otherTotal Columns 5+7

    1896130.20185.30184516.8%39.2%30.0%55.9%85.9%69.1%14.1%100.0%

    189784.70118.60184614.4%33.5%37.3%47.9%85.2%70.8%15.2%100.4%

    189874.40128.7018479.9%44.9%31.6%54.8%86.4%76.5%13.6%100.0%

    189994.90200.90184815.5%49.8%25.8%65.4%91.2%75.7%8.9%100.1%

    190097.90305.70184918.6%53.7%20.3%72.2%92.5%73.9%7.4%99.9%

    1901106.50334.70185013.8%44.3%21.3%58.1%79.5%65.6%20.6%100.1%

    1902128.30457.70185113.6%58.3%19.1%71.9%91.0%77.4%9.9%100.9%

    1903186.60572.70185211.0%42.9%39.3%53.9%93.1%82.2%6.9%100.0%

    1904194.00515.50185310.2%44.1%38.5%54.3%92.8%82.6%7.3%100.1%

    1905238.30682.10185413.7%23.7%50.3%37.4%87.7%74.0%12.4%100.1%

    1906192.60753.90185523.8%24.8%35.9%48.5%84.4%60.7%16.0%100.4%

    1907201.20883.00185622.3%27.1%35.4%49.4%84.8%62.5%15.2%100.0%

    185723.3%21.6%36.5%44.9%81.5%58.2%19.3%100.8%

    185823.6%21.9%36.8%45.4%82.2%58.7%15.9%98.1%

    185921.6%29.0%34.5%50.6%85.1%63.5%14.7%99.8%

    186019.3%31.6%35.5%51.0%86.5%67.1%13.7%100.2%

    &A

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    Chart1

    &A

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    Government

    Percentage Distribution of Federal Expenditures by Major Function, 1790-1860Percent Distribution of Federal Government Revenue Sources, 1800-1900Percent Distribution of the Federal Governments Direct Expenditures, 1902-75

    ItemPercent of TotalYearTariffsInternal RevenueLand SalesOtherYearNational DefensePostal ServiceEducationFarm SupportPublic WelfareNatural ResourcesVeteran's ServicesInterestIncome Security ProgramsOther

    Defense48.2%180083.7%7.5%0.0%8.8%190229.2%22.3%0.5%0.7%1.4%25.0%5.1%15.8%

    General Govt.15.2%181091.5%0.1%7.4%1.0%191326.1%28.2%0.5%0.5%3.1%18.5%2.4%20.7%

    Postal Service3.3%182083.9%0.6%6.3%9.2%192224.0%15.2%0.2%0.2%2.2%11.7%27.1%0.3%19.1%

    Indian Affairs4.4%183088.2%0.1%9.4%2.3%192718.1%20.9%0.2%0.3%3.3%17.0%22.4%0.9%16.9%

    Pensions4.9%184069.3%0.0%16.9%13.8%193217.9%19.7%0.3%0.0%4.0%23.0%14.4%1.3%19.4%

    Interest10.4%185091.0%4.3%4.7%193611.3%9.1%2.3%7.3%2.1%16.5%20.6%8.7%0.8%21.3%

    Aid to Foreign Commerce2.6%186094.9%3.2%1.9%194017.0%8.8%2.1%7.6%1.7%19.8%5.5%9.8%3.1%24.3%

    Aid to Domestic Commerce1.8%187047.3%45.0%0.8%6.9%194617.3%2.1%0.5%3.1%0.0%1.2%3.9%5.9%1.7%4.6%

    Foreign Indemnities3.1%188055.9%37.2%0.3%6.6%195043.3%5.4%5.8%6.4%0.1%3.8%6.6%10.4%10.6%7.6%

    Misc.6.1%189057.0%35.4%1.6%6.0%195561.8%3.9%1.1%5.5%0.1%2.4%4.3%6.9%8.6%5.1%

    190041.1%52.1%0.5%6.3%196046.7%0.5%1.4%3.6%2.4%1.8%5.4%9.5%22.3%6.4%

    196539.8%0.6%1.6%3.7%2.7%2.3%4.4%9.1%23.5%12.3%

    Percent Distribution of Federal, State, and Local Govt. Expenditures, 1890Percent Distribution of Direct Expenditures by Level of Government, 1902-75197040.8%0.8%3.7%3.2%2.6%1.3%4.4%9.3%25.0%8.9%

    197526.7%0.6%4.7%0.5%6.2%2.9%5.1%8.5%27.6%17.2%

    198022.7%5.4%1.5%14.6%3.6%8.9%25.5%

    National Defense6.1%FederalStateLocal198926.2%3.2%1.8%12.0%2.6%14.6%28.1%

    Veterans Benefits13.3%190234.0%8.2%57.8%

    Regualtion and Protection6.8%191329.8%9.2%61.0%

    Economic Development11.3%192239.2%11.7%49.1%Percent Distribution of State and Local Govt. Direct Expenditures 1902-1975

    (Transportation)10.1%192730.4%12.9%56.7%

    Social Welfare25.4%193232.4%16.3%51.3%YearEducationHighwaysPublic WelfareHospitals and HealthPolice, Fire, and SanitationNatural ResourcesGeneral ControlUtility and Liquor StoresTrust ExspendituresOther

    (Educations)17.3%193649.3%14.6%36.1%190223.3%16.0%3.4%5.5%12.9%3.5%12.9%7.5%15.0%

    Interest9.8%194045.0%17.4%37.6%191325.6%18.6%2.3%4.8%11.6%3.2%9.4%8.2%0.3%16.0%

    General Govt.9.9%194682.4%6.2%11.4%192230.2%22.9%2.1%4.6%9.5%2.6%5.5%6.4%1.3%14.9%

    Misc.17.4%195060.3%15.7%24.0%192728.6%23.2%1.9%4.6%10.1%3.2%5.3%6.3%1.4%15.4%

    195563.5%12.9%23.6%193227.5%20.7%5.3%5.4%9.0%3.7%5.6%6.2%1.4%15.2%

    196059.7%14.6%25.7%193625.6%16.8%9.7%5.5%8.5%3.5%5.9%8.3%1.8%14.4%

    196557.9%15.1%27.0%194023.5%14.0%10.3%5.4%7.2%3.4%5.0%11.8%6.1%13.3%

    197055.5%16.8%27.7%194623.9%11.9%10.0%5.8%8.1%3.4%5.0%12.6%9.3%10.3%

    197552.3%18.7%29.0%195025.7%13.6%10.5%6.3%7.5%3.5%3.7%9.8%8.5%10.9%

    195529.5%16.0%7.9%6.3%7.6%3.2%3.6%9.6%6.9%9.4%

    196030.7%15.5%7.2%6.2%7.5%3.2%3.5%8.3%6.6%11.3%

    Government Expenditures as a Percent of GNP.196533.0%14.1%7.3%6.2%7.2%0.0%3.2%8.2%5.7%11.8%

    197035.6%11.1%9.9%6.5%6.7%3.1%3.2%6.4%4.9%12.6%

    YearGovernment Purchases as a Percent of GNPGovernment Budget Expnditures as a percent of GNPGovernment Civilian Employees as percent of Civilian Labor Force197533.1%8.5%10.3%7.1%7.3%2.9%1.9%6.5%6.9%15.5%

    19006.0%7.3%3.9%1980

    19106.1%5.7%4.5%1989

    19206.6%12.1%5.7%

    193010.2%21.4%6.4%

    194014.2%18.7%7.6%

    195013.4%23.0%9.7%Percent Distribution of Federal Revenue Sources

    196019.8%28.6%12.0%

    197022.2%33.5%15.1%YearIndividual Income TaxCorporate Income TaxEmployment TaxesExcise TaxesEstate and Gift TaxesTariffsOther

    197121.8%33.5%15.3%190050.1%0.5%41.1%8.3%

    197221.3%33.5%15.3%191039.6%49.4%11.0%

    197320.4%32.2%15.4%192012.2%1.6%4.8%

    197421.2%32.6%15.4%193027.5%30.2%13.5%1.6%14.0%13.2%

    197521.9%35.8%15.7%194016.7%19.5%14.2%32.0%6.1%5.9%5.6%

    197621.1%36.2%15.5%195041.5%26.3%6.4%18.4%1.7%1.0%4.7%

    197720.6%35.2%15.3%196044.0%23.2%15.9%12.6%1.7%1.2%1.4%

    197820.1%34.6%15.3%197046.7%16.9%23.4%8.1%1.9%1.2%1.8%

    197919.6%33.9%15.2%197543.6%14.5%30.8%5.9%1.6%1.3%2.3%

    198020.4%36.0%15.2%198047.2%12.5%30.5%4.7%1.2%1.4%

    198120.2%36.0%14.8%198943.6%11.0%37.3%3.5%0.8%1.7%

    198221.2%38.0%14.3%

    198320.7%38.2%14.2%

    198420.4%n.a.14.1%

    YearGovernment Purchases as a Percent of GNPGovernment Budget Expenditures as a Percent of GNPYearGovernment Purchases as a Percent of GNPGovernment Budget Expenditures as a Percent of GNP

    19006.0%194812.3%18.4%

    19015.6%194914.9%

    19025.7%7.3%195013.4%23.0%Outbreak of Korean War

    19036.2%195118.2%

    19046.0%195221.7%27.1%

    19056.1%195322.5%28.5%

    19065.6%195420.7%27.9%

    19076.2%195518.8%25.7%

    19087.6%195618.8%25.6%

    19096.0%195719.6%26.5%

    19106.1%195821.1%28.5%

    19117.2%195920.0%29.6%

    19126.8%196019.8%28.6%

    19136.4%5.7%196120.6%29.6%

    19147.4%196220.9%29.8%Vietnam War

    19157.2%196320.7%29.8%

    19165.9%196420.4%29.7%

    19178.9%World War I196520.0%28.2%

    191821.3%196621.0%29.0%

    191912.0%196722.5%31.6%

    19206.6%196822.8%32.5%

    19218.5%196922.1%32.3%

    19228.0%12.1%197022.2%33.5%

    19237.2%197121.8%33.5%

    19247.7%197221.3%33.0%

    19257.9%197320.4%32.2%

    19267.5%197421.2%32.6%

    19278.2%10.6%197521.9%35.8%

    19288.3%197621.1%36.2%

    19298.1%197720.6%35.2%

    193010.2%Onset of Great Depression197820.1%34.6%

    193112.1%197919.6%33.9%

    193214.0%21.4%198020.4%36.0%

    193314.4%198120.2%36.0%

    193415.1%21.2%198221.2%38.0%

    193513.9%198320.7%38.2%

    193614.5%19.5%198420.4%

    193713.2%

    193815.3%18.3%

    193914.9%

    194014.2%18.7%

    194119.9%World War II

    194237.7%28.1%

    194346.3%

    194446.1%47.7%

    194539.0%

    194613.1%31.8%

    194710.9%

    &A

    Page &P

    Civil War Deaths

    Total Deaths

    Total DeathsBattle DeathsOther DeathsWounds Not Mortal

    Civil War (Union)364,511140,414224,097281,881

    Civil War (Confederacy)258,000199,515

    Spanish American War2,4463852,0611,662

    WWI116,51653,40263,114204,002

    WW2405,399291,557113,842640,846

    Korean Conflict54,24633,62920,617103,284

    Vietnam (American)56,88646,49810,388153,000

    Vietnam (North Vietnamese)660,000

    Vietnames (South Vietnamese)220,357

    6-Day War (Israel)1,000

    6-Day War (Egypt, Jordan, Syria)18,000

    Deaths and Wounds as a Percent of Male Population

    PopulationPercent of Male Population Killed or WoundedPercent of Male 15-24 Population Killed or Wounded (17% of population male, 15-24)

    Civil War31,443,3217.02%41.30%

    Spanish American War50,000,0000.02%0.10%

    WWI92,228,4960.70%4.09%

    WW2132,164,5691.58%9.31%

    Korean Conflict151,325,7980.21%1.22%

    Vietnam (U. S.)203,302,0310.21%1.21%

    Vietnam (Vietnamese)39,463,9104.46%26.24%

    6-Day War (Israel)2,746,8980.07%0.43%

    6-Day War (Egypt, Jordan, Syria)38,662,0000.09%0.55%

    Annual Death rate per 1000 average strength

    Total DeathsBattle DeathsOther Deaths

    Civil War104.440.164.3

    Spanish American War36.6

    WWI35.517.118.4

    WW211.38.63

    Korean Conflict5.53.42.1

    Vietnam0.70.60.1

    Probability of Service

    Total Personal Serving in WarPercent of Male Population, 15-24 in Armed ServicesPercent of Armed Services Serving AbroadPercent of Male Population, 15-24 Serving Abroad

    Civil War2,213,00041.40%

    Spanish American War307,0003.61%29%1.05%

    WWI4,735,00030.20%53%16.01%

    WW216,113,00071.72%73%52.35%

    Korean Conflict5,720,00022.23%56%12.45%

    Vietnam8,744,00025.30%

    Relative Mortality Risk

    Immigration Data

    Black Income

    Table 2: Black Male Wages as a Percent of White Male Wages, 1940-1980

    Table 1: Mean Male Income by Race 1940-1980 (1984 dollars)

    Census Years

    Census YearWhite MenBlack MenRatioPercent of Change Occuring before DateYears of Market Experience19401950196019701980

    1980$25,791$18,72373%100%1 to 546.761.860.275.184.2

    1970$25,666$16,52764%72%6 to 1047.56159.170.176.6

    1960$19,959$11,48358%49%11 to 1544.458.359.466.27.5

    1950$14,332$7,91255%41%16 to 2044.456.658.462.871.2

    1940$10,459$4,53143%21 to 2542.354.157.662.767.8

    26 to 3041.753.256.260.666.9

    31 to 3540.250.353.86066.5

    36 to 4039.846.955.960.368.5

    All43.355.257.564.472.6

    Table 3: Extent of Overlap Between Black and White Income Distributions

    Percent of Black Men Whose Income Exceeds White Income at the:Percent of White Men Whose Income Exceeds Black Income at the

    YearBottom QuarterMedianTop QuarterBottom QuarterMedianTop Quarter

    1980562910877045

    197045225907857

    196038121928166

    195036122928266

    19403181958470

    Note: The way to read the chart is as follows. In 1980, only 10% of black men had an income that exceed the income of a white man whose income was in the top 25% of the income distribution. In 1980, 29% of black men had an income that exceeded the median

    Table 4: Men in the Middle Class

    WhiteBlacks

    YearBelowMiddle ClassAboveBelowMiddle ClassAbove

    1980116029206812

    19709662524715

    196012642439592

    195018492348502

    194030403076222

    Table 5: Percentage Increase in Black Annual Income Compared with Whites at Selected Percentiles

    PercentilePercent IncreasePercentilePercent Increase

    24.86054.9

    48.47057.4

    630.78049

    836.99046.2

    1048.19250.6

    2048.29448.1

    3050.29651.6

    4045.29854.7

    5045.5

    Table 6: Percentage Growth in Black-White Male Ratios of Weekly Wages

    Growth Between

    Years of Work Experience50-4060-5070-6080-7080-40

    1 to 528.1-2.722.111.558.9

    6 to 1025.1-3.217.18.847.8

    11 to 1527.11.910.910.450.3

    16 to 2024.43.17.312.547.3

    21 to 2524.66.38.67.747.2

    26 to 3024.25.67.59.947.2

    31 to 3522.56.610.810.450.3

    36 to 4016.417.57.512.754.2

    All24.24.111.31251.6

    Table 7: Percentage Growth in Black-White Weekly Wage Ratios by Education

    Years of Schooling

    Decade0 to 45 to 78 to 111213 to 1516+All

    1940-198035.536.530.832.84544.851.6

    1940-1950514.416.622.314.410.824.2

    1950-196012.95.5-2.2-6.86.910.44.1

    1960-19702.88.578.717.619.311.3

    1970-198015.18.17.48.66.24.312

    Table 8: Black Male Wages as a Percentage of White Males by Labor Market CohortReal Black and White Income in 1880 and 1900

    Median Year of Initial Labor Market Work19401950196019701980SouthernSouthernNational

    197884.2RuralTotalTotal

    197376.6TotalIncomeIncome

    196873.5Income

    196375.171.2Per Capita1880Black$36.78$38.43$43.06

    195860.270.167.8IncomeWhite$62.49$79.44$142.64

    195359.166.266.9B/W Ratio0.590.480.3

    194861.859.462.866.51900Black$46.37$49.96$56.86

    19436058.462.768.5White$91.23$117.87$206.70

    193846.758.357.660.6B/W Ratio0.510.420.28

    193347.556.656.2601880-1900Black1.17%1.32%1.40%

    192844.454.153.860.3Growth RateWhite1.91%1.99%1.87%

    192344.453.255.9Per1880Black$65.93$68.90$77.20

    191812.350.3WorkerWhite$99.43$126.38$226.95

    191341.746.9IncomeB/W Ratio0.660.550.34

    190840.21900Black$81.31$87.61$99.72

    190339.8White$140.04$180.94$317.31

    All43.355.257.564.472.6B/W Ratio0.580.480.31

    1880-1900Black1.05%1.21%1.29%

    Growth RateWhite1.73%1.81%1.69%

    &CBlack Income Statistics

    Black Income After CW

    Yearly Value of Freedom per Capita (1879 Prices)

    Ng and Virts

    Ransom and SutchImproved Residual MethodDirect Observation of Wages

    Black Income in 1859$27.66$27.66$27.66

    Black Income in 1879$35.59$40.24$40.24

    Value of Leisure$13.75-$21.00$14.82-$23.44$31.01-$36.78

    Value of Freedom$22.05-$29.01$27.40-$36.02$43.59-$49.36

    Increase in Income78-105%99-130%158-178%

    Real Black and White Income in 1880 and 1900

    SouthernSouthernNational

    RuralTotalTotal

    TotalIncomeIncome

    Income

    Per Capita1880Black$36.78$38.43$43.06

    IncomeWhite$62.49$79.44$142.64

    B/W Ratio0.590.480.3

    1900Black$46.37$49.96$56.86

    White$91.23$117.87$206.70

    B/W Ratio0.510.420.28

    1880-1900Black1.17%1.32%1.40%

    Growth RateWhite1.91%1.99%1.87%

    Per1880Black$65.93$68.90$77.20

    WorkerWhite$99.43$126.38$226.95

    IncomeB/W Ratio0.660.550.34

    1900Black$81.31$87.61$99.72

    White$140.04$180.94$317.31

    B/W Ratio0.580.480.31

    1880-1900Black1.05%1.21%1.29%

    Growth RateWhite1.73%1.81%1.69%

    &CBlack Income after Civil War

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  • Proportional Immigration, 1845-60

    Growth 1800 -1860

    Indices of Economic Growth, 1800-1860Value of Component Indicies

    YearPer Capita Output IndexAnnual Per Capita Growth

    180064.4YearZ

    181061.9-0.418001.9570.8260.7640.9660.644

    182067.60.918101.9570.8370.7390.970.619

    1830842.218201.9570.790.7660.9870.676

    18401001.818301.9570.7070.90.9760.84

    1850110.4118401.9570.634111

    18601372.218501.9570.54811.0651.13

    18601.9570.5321.2151.0651.38

    Source: Paul David, "The Growth of Real Product in the U.S. before 1840: New Evidence , Controlled Conjectures, JEH 27 (June 1967)

    Sources of Change in Per Capita Output, 1800-1860

    DecadeLabor Force ParticipationShift out of AgricultureIncreased Agricultural Productivity

    18000.30-1.00-3.90

    18101.903.909.20

    1820-1.206.6024.30

    18302.505.5019.00

    18406.506.1013.00

    18500.001.1022.10

    1800-403.5015.8055.30

    1840-606.507.2038.00

    Based on Variant II in 1840 prices.

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    US Growth 1840-1960

    Rates of Growth: Gross National Product, Population, Labor Force In the U.S., 1840-1960

    ProductPopulationLabor ForceProduct per CapitaProduct per Worker

    Successive Decades4.243.113.571.10.64

    1839-494.953.093.181.81.71

    1849-591.992.392.07-0.39-0.08

    1859-694.952.333.012.561.88

    1869-79

    Overlapping Decades

    178-82-1882-923.732.262.71.441

    1883-87-1893-973.12.022.51.050.58

    1888-92-1898-19024.041.82.52.21.5

    1893-97-1903-075.031.782.63.192.36

    1898-1902-1908-123.711.952.671.731.01

    1903-07-1913-172.61.871.950.720.63

    1908-12-1918-222.61.51.051.081.53

    1913-17-1923-273.621.41.142.192.45

    1918-22-19293.991.471.352.492.61

    1923-27-1933-37-0.350.981.16-1.33-1.49

    1929-1939-411.370.741.210.620.15

    1933-37-1943-477.020.961.8465.09

    1939-41-1948-524.271.391.42.842.83

    1943-47-1953-572.471.670.80.781.65

    1948-52-1959-613.241.711.191.52.03

    Longer Periods

    1840-804.032.732.961.261.04

    1880-19203.521.882.231.611.26

    1920-603.151.311.281.811.84

    1840-19603.561.972.151.561.38

    Abosolute Values

    1959-61509179.969.928297282

    1959-61 as a multiple of 184066.710.412.96.45.2

    18407.6317.75.424461408

    Source: Kuznets, Notes on the Pattern of U.S. Economic Growth, in S. Engerman and R. Fogel, The Reinterpretation of American Economic History

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    World Growth

    Rate of Growth and Per Capita Income for Selected Countries for Long Periods.

    Duration of PeriodProductPopulationProduct per Captia

    Great Britain

    1841-81402.541.191.33

    1881-1921401.770.910.86

    United Kingdom

    1921-1957-59371.880.431.44

    Total 1841-1957-591172.070.861.2

    France

    1841-50-1861-70202.230.391.84

    1871-80-1901-103020.221.77

    1901-10-1920-2818.51.46-0.131.6

    1920-28-1958-60351.550.371.18

    Total, 1841-50-1958-60103.51.80.241.55

    Germany

    1913 Boundaries

    1851-55-1871-75201.630.740.89

    1871-75-1913403.091.21.87

    Interwar Boundaries

    1913-1935-37230.570.530.04

    Federal Republic

    1936-1958-60233.971.42.53

    Total, 1913-1958-60462.250.971.28

    Total, 1851-55-1958-601062.451.011.43

    Sweden

    1861-65-1881-85202.880.722.15

    1881-85-1921-25402.690.662.01

    1921-25-1958-60363.770.593.16

    Total, 1861-65-1958-60963.130.642.47

    European Russia

    1860-1913532.671.31.35

    USSR

    1913-28150.540.540

    1928-58304.40.673.71

    Total, 1913-58453.10.632.45

    Total, 1860-1958982.870.991.86

    Japan

    1878-82-1918-22404.141.053.05

    1918-22-1958-60393.971.362.57

    Total, 1878-82-1958-60794.051.212.81

    Source: Kuznets, Notes.. in Engerman and Fogel, Reinterpretations.

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    productivity

    National Economy: Output and Productivity Ratios, 1869-1959

    YearOutput (Real Net Product)Output per Unit of labor inputOutput per unit of capital InputTotal Factor Productivity

    18697.83567.742

    187915.75490.262.5

    188921.850.285.558.3

    189933.961.287.667.8

    130351.369.892.175.6

    191970.379.391.782.6

    1929100100100100

    1939104.8117.2111.5115.9

    1949159.7138.7130.5136.4

    1959233.5179.8134.4169.1

    Source: Peter George p. 12

    Agriculture

    YearOutput (Real Net Product)Output per Unit of labor inputOutput per unit of capital InputTotal Factor Productivity

    186928.953.976.760.8

    187945.264.284.370.7

    188957.269.287.675.5

    189972.579.892.884.6

    130378.881.487.684

    191987.385.685.785.6

    1929100100100100

    1939109.2122.6111.7118.4

    1949129.9175.3123.5153.8

    1959170354.5141.6250.4

    Source: Peter George p. 12

    Manufacturing

    YearOutput (Real Net Product)Output per Unit of labor inputOutput per unit of capital InputTotal Factor Productivity

    18697.129.6158.936.4

    187910.232.7134.639.7

    188918.341.410448.2

    189927.547.793.953.9

    130343.453.579.857.9

    1919615865.759.6

    1929100100100100

    1939102.5123.9120.8122.8

    1949174139.8140.3139.9

    1959284.3195.6165.3191.1

    Source: Peter George p. 12

    &CProductivity Data

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    Pop., Labor, Land, and Capital

    Indexes of Population, Labor, Land, Capital and Net National Product, 1840-1960.

    YearPopulationLaborLandCapitalNet National Product

    1840100100100100100

    1870235228240512324

    190044751456623431037

    1930724863108565752952

    1960106113081165105315994

    Source Peter George, The Emergence of Industrial America p. 5

    Accounting for Growth

    Annual Rate of Growth

    PeriodLaborCapitalLandNNP

    1840-603.426.573.734.75

    1870-19302.244.352.553.75

    1940-19901.563.140.343.22

    Percentage of Growth in NNP Attributable to:

    PeriodLaborCapitalLandProductivity

    1840-6049%26%10%15%

    1870-193043%27%4%27%

    1940-199041%14%0%45%

    Source: Atack and Passel, p. 19

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    TFP Problem from Exam

    Total Factor Productivity ExampleTotal Factor Productivity ExerciseTotal Factor Productivity Exercise

    184018601850195018501950

    Output$4,500$8,550OutputOutput$2,000$57,500

    Amount of Land100150Amount of Land100500Amount of Land100500

    Amount of Labor5060Amount of Labor1002000Amount of Labor1002000

    Price of Land$20$25Price of Land$5$15Price of Land$5$15

    Price of Labor$50$80Price of Labor$15$25Price of Labor$15$25

    Factor Share of Land0.4440.439Factor Share of LandFactor Share of Land0.2500.130

    Factor Share of Labor0.5560.561Factor Share of LaborFactor Share of Labor0.7500.870

    Index of Factors67.9089.92Index of Factors1Index of Factors1001669.169

    Factor Share of Land (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.442aFactor Share of Land (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)aFactor Share of Land (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.190a

    Factor Share of Labor (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.558bFactor Share of Labor (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)bFactor Share of Labor (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.810b

    Percent Change in Output0.900Percent Change in OutputPercent Change in Output27.750

    Percent Change in Land0.500Percent Change in LandPercent Change in Land4.000

    Percent Change in Labor0.200Percent Change in LaborPercent Change in Labor19.000

    Change in Total Factor Productivity0.568Change in Total Factor ProductivityChange in Total Factor Productivity11.603

    Instructions: Output has increased from Year 1 to Year 2. How much of the increase is due to more factors of production (land and labor) and how much is due to improved productivity? To answer this question first compute the index of factors (I). Note tha

    TFP Excercise

    Total Factor Productivity ExampleTotal Factor Productivity ExerciseTotal Factor Productivity Exercise

    185019501850195018501950

    Output$2,750$9,000OutputOutput$2,000$57,500

    Amount of Capital5075Amount of Land100500Amount of Land100500

    Amount of Labor150300Amount of Labor1002000Amount of Labor1002000

    Price of Capital$10$20Price of Land$5$15Price of Land$5$15

    Price of Labor$15$25Price of Labor$15$25Price of Labor$15$25

    Factor Share of Capital0.1820.167Factor Share of LandFactor Share of Land0.2500.130

    Factor Share of Labor0.8180.833Factor Share of LaborFactor Share of Labor0.7500.870

    Index of Factors122.8406031059238.110Index of Factors1Index of Factors1001669.169

    Factor Share of Capital (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.174aFactor Share of Land (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)aFactor Share of Land (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.190a

    Factor Share of Labor (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.826bFactor Share of Labor (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)bFactor Share of Labor (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.810b

    Percent Change in Output2.273Percent Change in OutputPercent Change in Output27.750

    Percent Change in Capital0.500Percent Change in LandPercent Change in Land4.000

    Percent Change in Labor1.000Percent Change in LaborPercent Change in Labor19.000

    Change in Total Factor Productivity1.360Change in Total Factor ProductivityChange in Total Factor Productivity11.603

    Instructions: Output has increased from Year 1 to Year 2. How much of the increase is due to more factors of production (land and labor) and how much is due to improved productivity? To answer this question first compute the index of factors (I). Note tha

    Answer to Take Home Assignment

    Real GDPPopulationReal GDP per Capita

    1948$1,491,000,000,000146,631,302$10,168.36

    1996$6,994,800,000,000265,179,411$26,377.61

    Growth Rate3.27%1.24%2.01%

    Real GDPPopulationReal GDP per Capita

    1969$3,393,600,000,000202,676,946$16,743.89

    1996$6,994,800,000,000265,179,411$26,377.61

    Growth Rate2.72%1.00%1.70%

    Total Factor Productivity

    Total Factor Productivity Example

    Year 1Year 2

    Output$12,500$19,000

    Amount of Land10080

    Amount of Labor100150

    Price of Land$25$50

    Price of Labor$100$100

    Factor Share of Land0.2000.211

    Factor Share of Labor0.8000.789

    Index of Factors1131.842

    Factor Share of Land (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.205a

    Factor Share of Labor (average of factor share in year 1 and year 2)0.795b

    Percent Change in Output0.520

    Percent Change in Land-0.200

    Percent Change in Labor0.500

    Change in Total Factor Productivity0.164

    Instructions: Output has increased from Year 1 to Year 2. How much of the increase is due to more factors of production (land and labor) and how much is due to improved productivity? To answer this question first compute the index of factors (I). Note tha

    &CEconomics 375, American Economic History, CSUN

    David

    Value of Component Indicies

    YearZYearZOutput

    18001.9570.8260.7640.9660.64418001.9570.8260.7640.9660.644

    18101.9570.8370.7390.970.61918401.9570.634111

    18201.9570.790.7660.9870.676

    18301.9570.7070.90.9760.84

    18401.9570.634111

    18501.9570.54811.0651.13

    18601.9570.5321.2151.0651.38

    &CPaul David Results

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    Lifespan Handouts

    &CLifespan Tables and Graphs

    Population

    Percentage of WomenRacial Fertility and Density

    18101840Change in Population

    WhiteNo Children7 or more ChildrenFertility IndexPopulation DensityFertility IndexPopulation DensityGrowth Rate102550100200

    1800na50East Coast1%1.101.281.642.707.32

    1840835Middle Atlantic134420.1100645.32%1.221.642.697.2452.48

    18601027New England107923.780036.13%1.342.094.3819.22369.36

    1900207North Central4%1.482.677.1150.502,550.75

    1925105West18100.514801.65%1.633.3911.47131.5017,292.58

    193476East17063.1129115.2

    South Central

    NonwhiteWest15572.214954.6

    1840652East17013.9142414.3

    1860944

    19002813Fertility Index-Children under 5 per 1000 white females 20-44 years of age

    19251816Population Density-Population per square mile.

    1934918

    Women in the Labor Force, 1830-1979Death Rate

    Percentage of Population