IMBER-JAPAN related programsIMBER-JAPAN related programs““Population outbreak of marine Population outbreak of marine

life” andlife” and “ “Global Warming project”Global Warming project”

N. Yoshie, H. Saito, K. Komatsu, S. Ito (FRA)

Contents1. Introduction of IMBER related programs (1sheet)

2. "Population outbreak of marine life“(18sheets)

Jelly fish prediction　 &　 Physical- ecological model

3. “Global Warming project” (4sheets)Future prediction of pelagic fish

4. Suggestions for GODAE-IMBER collaboration(1sheet)

01/25

Introduction of IMBER-JAPANIntroduction of IMBER-JAPAN related programs related programs

1. “Population outbreak of marine life”1. “Population outbreak of marine life” elucidate the mechanism of extreme increase of marine life population (like sardine, jellyfish). 2007-2012, 14 million EURO year-1

2. “Global Warming project”2. “Global Warming project” elucidate the effect of global warming to the marine resources and predict the future status of them. 2002-2011, 7 million EURO year-1

02/25

““Population outbreak of marine life” Population outbreak of marine life” projectprojectTheme 1

Fish species alternation caused by climate change.

Theme 2Jellyfish outbreak induced by anthropogenic environmental change.

Sometimes marine life populations show abrupt increase or decrease. There are several hypothesis to explain such kind of change e.g. bottom up, top down and wasp-waist control. However, the mechanism is still unclear. Moreover, dominant forcing is natural in some cases, while that is anthropogenic in the other cases.

This project focus on population outbreaks and elucidate the mechanism of them. There are two main themes. One is “Fish species alternation caused by climate change” and another is “Jellyfish outbreak induced by anthropogenic environmental change”.

03/25

Issue of giant jellyfishIssue of giant jellyfish Recently, Japan have faced to big issue of giant jellyfish Nemopilema nomurai. The giant jellyfish are advected from the coastal regions of the Yellow Sea and the northern East China Sea to the Japan Sea during summer and autumn.

They stray into the set fishing net in the coast and damage coastal fisheries seriously.

Giant jellyfish is a big issue in Japan and several programs have been already started. We introduce one example of giant jellyfish prediction conducted under Japan Fisheries Agency international program.

04/25

Nemopilema nomurai

2m

weight:150kg

source

Prediction of giant jellyfish Prediction of giant jellyfish migrationmigration

courtesy of K. Komatsu

Prediction in the Japan Sea “JADE” (based on RIAMOM), 1/12 deg X 1/12 deg, Kalman filter for SSH FRA + Kyushu Univ.

Prediction in the Northwestern Pacific,Yellow Sea, and East China Sea “FRA-JCOPE”, 1/12 deg X 1/12 deg IAU for SSH, SST, hydrographic data FRA + JAMSTEC

05/25

2004

2005

2006

initial condition is based on the observations

Year to year variation Year to year variation (prediction)(prediction)

15 Jun. 15 Jul. 30 Jul.

courtesy of K. Komatsu

Interannual variations of migration route were simulated.

06/25

There is a rapid connecting window in the yellow sea (region 5).

Example of Example of predictionprediction

This is only a simple example of jellyfish prediction.

Under the project, the relationship between anthropogenic environmental change and increase of jellyfish will be investigated.

courtesy of K. Komatsu

5 Jul.

15 Jul.

25 Jul.

(from 05 July to 25 July)

07/25

sardine

anchovy

mackerels

Issue of species alternation of pelagic Issue of species alternation of pelagic fishfish

Large scale fluctuations in the populations of sardines and anchovies have been observed during the past century. Their amplitude is high and contributes a disproportionate share of the total variability of the world harvest of fish. There are several intensive fishery grounds for sardine and

anchovy and sardine and anchovy show asynchrony in all areas. e.g.) Benguela, California, Humboldt, Kuroshio- Oyashio

08/25

○California△Chilean●Kuroshio(Kawasaki's FAO)

Sardine Sardine landinglanding Moreover, sardine

shows synchrony in the whole Pacific (Humboldt, California, and Kuroshio areas)during 20th century.

09/25

The same trend in the whole Pacific

On the other hand, sardine does not show any synchrony between Pacific and Atlantic. The asynchrony between sardine and anchovy reflects not only the differences of their life histories, but also bottom-up process driven by climate shifts. The synchrony of sardine population in the whole Pacific also suggests a bottom-up, climate driven component.

Negative PDO (1945-75) = “Anchovy Dominant Regime”

Positive PDO (1976-87) = “Sardine Dominant Regime”•High PP in West, Low PP in CC•Faster Kuroshio and Slower CC

Chavez (2003)

Conduct physical-biological interdisciplinary observation

Climate index and the species Climate index and the species alternationalternation

10/25

Focus area: Kuroshio-Oyashio Focus area: Kuroshio-Oyashio interfrontal zoneinterfrontal zone

courtesy of A. Yatsu

SST in the south of Kuroshio Extension shows high correlation with mortality of juvenile sardine.

We will investigate how does the SST in the south of KE relate to sardine mortality.

Scenario 1 SST decrease means @ spin down of KE enhancement of @ eddy activity, @ northward transport.

Scenario 2 Cold SST generates @ deep mixed layer enhancement of @ primary production.

SSTanomaly Mortality

anomaly

11/25

Noto & Yasuda (1999)

StreamerWarm Core Ring

RecirculatonKuroshio

Oyashio

DO-Chl.a- ARGO

Ship observation

Intensive observation in the K-O Intensive observation in the K-O regionregion

DO-Chl.a- Glider

12/25

Modeling approachModeling approachAn ecosystem model “NEMURONEMURO (North pacific Ecosystem Model Used for Regional Oceanography)” was developed by CCCC/MODEL task team of PICES (North Pacific Marine Science Organization).

More than 40 papers were already published.1. Time-series station (e.g., Fujii et al., 2002, 2007; Smith et al., 2005; Yoshie et al., 2003, 2007)

2. Mesoscale Iron fertilization experiment (e.g., Fujii et al., 2005; Yoshie et al., 2005)

3. Global 3-D model for interannual variation (e.g., Aita et al., 2003, 2007)

4. Regional 3-D model for the global warming (e.g., Hashioka and Yamanaka, 2007)

3Nut

2Phyt

3Zoo4Det

Yamanaka et al., 2004

13/25

Extended NEMURO (Extended NEMURO (eNEMUROeNEMURO))Introducing subtropical plankton and new temp. dep.

Yoshie et al in prep.

14/25

Examples of NEMURO and eNEMURO Examples of NEMURO and eNEMURO

Both NEMURO and eNEMURO well reproduced the seasonal changes observed in the subarctic region.

Basically, the same performance

15/25

Megrey et al. (2007)Ito et al. (2004)

NEMURO For Including Saury and NEMURO For Including Saury and HerringHerring

NEMURO.FISHNEMURO.FISH

Please see detail on “NEMURO and NEMURO.FISH” special issue on Ecol. Modelling, 202(1-2), 2007.edited by M. J. Kishi, B. A. Megrey, S. Ito, F. E. Werner

16/25

Example of NEMURO.FISHExample of NEMURO.FISH

NEMURO.FISH successfully reproduced realistic growth of Pacific saury.

NEMURO.FISH successfully estimated realistic consumption rate of Pacific saury.

(Ito et al., 2004)

Model

Obs.

Wet weight of Pacific saury

Terms of the bioenergetics equation

consumption respiration

egestion

excretiondynamicaction

Obs.consumption

eggproduction

17/25

Application of NEMURO.FISH toApplication of NEMURO.FISH toSardine & AnchovySardine & AnchovyNEMURO.SANNEMURO.SAN

Supported by FRA, APN, PICES, GLOBEC, IAI

Hold a workshop at Tokyo in Nov. 2005 to compare 4 current pelagic ecosystems; California, Benguela, Humboldt, Kuroshio-Oyashio.

Agreed to develop NEMURO.SAN.

18/25

NEMURO.SANNEMURO.SAN• Biological extensions:

– Two species (sardine and anchovy)– Individual-based– Full life-cycle– Dynamic predator on sardine and anchovy

• Spatial extensions:– Grid of cells

AnchovySardinePredator

NEMURO

Rose et al. (in prep.)

19/25

Year 1

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 1e+9 2e+9 3e+9 4e+9 5e+9 6e+9 7e+9 8e+9 9e+9 1e+10

Year 1

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0.0 1.0e+9 2.0e+9 3.0e+9 4.0e+9 5.0e+9 6.0e+9 7.0e+9 8.0e+9 9.0e+9 1.0e+10 1.1e+10 1.2e+10 1.3e+10

4 8 12 16 20

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000

Year1 10 20 30 40 50

Anchovy

Sardine

Predator

Example of NEMURO.SANExample of NEMURO.SAN

Rose et al. (in prep.)

20/25

monitoring in-situ dataA-line， O-line， CK-line satellite data

NEMUROeNEMURO

NEMURO.FISH

Future prediction

retrospective analysis

global model

high-resolution model

validation

“ “Global Warming project”Global Warming project”

nestingvalidation

validation

validation

21/25

Ito et al. (2007)

Future prediction of Pacific Future prediction of Pacific saurysauryCurrent

2050

Wet weight of Pacific saury

Egg production of Pacific saury

Current

2050

Predicted wet weight of saury decreases about 10 g than current.

However, the egg production is predicted to increase.

22/25

current 2050

Kuroshio

inter-frontal zone

Oyashio

Future prediction of Pacific saury Future prediction of Pacific saury (cont.)(cont.)

Ito et al. (2007)

These changes are caused by change in the migration route.

Saury does not migrate to the Kuroshio region in the first winter. Since the prey density in the interfrontal region is much higher than those in the Kuroshio region, saury is able to product much eggs.

23/25

Future perspectiveFuture perspectiveNEMURO.SAN coupled with 3D-NEMUROFuture predictionFish species alternation NEMURO.SAN + 3D-NEMURO + data assimilation

Shido et al. (submitted)

Population of Pacific Saury

Weight and adv.+ mig.

Example of 3D-NEMURO.FISHExample of 3D-NEMURO.FISH

Feb. Oct.

Feb. Oct.

24/25

Kuroshio-Oyashio interfrontal zone is one of the key areas for GODAE-IMBER collaboration

The K-O region is one of the most attractive fields to elucidate relationship between ocean condition and marine ecosystem.

Japan conducts several big observational programs in this region.

DO-Chl.a-ARGO & Glider will be deployed under those programs.

Physical-biological (including fish) coupled model have been applied in this region.

Suggestions to GODAE-IMBER Suggestions to GODAE-IMBER collaborationcollaboration

25/25

Details of models

Governing equations of diatom in NEMUROGoverning equations of diatom in NEMURO

Physiological parameters in eNEMUROPhysiological parameters in eNEMUROIn eNEMURO, phytoplankton is categorized four groups by temperature and nutrient dependencies of physiological parameters: subarctic, subtropical and global types.

Box model version of NEMURO and eNEMURO were applied to 3 stations, OY (subarctic), B1 (subtropical) and CK11 (cont. shelf) under boundary conditions based on observation.

Applications to three regions around Applications to three regions around JapanJapan

St. CK11St. CK11

10/15

Seasonal changes in the Seasonal changes in the subtropical subtropical regionregion Performance of

eNEMURO looks more reasonable than that of NEMURO, especially in the reproduction of zooplankton.Diatom is too high PS & PM are dominant

ZS+Bac & ZM are dominantZL is overestimated

Simulated seasonal changes at Simulated seasonal changes at CK11 (cont.shelf)CK11 (cont.shelf)Performance of eNEMURO looks more reasonable than that of NEMURO.

Overestimations of phytoplankton and zooplankton arereduced.

Total-phytIs overestimated

ZL+ZPIs overestimated

Bioenergetics Model for herring and Bioenergetics Model for herring and saurysaury

change of weight

f

z

CAL

CALPEFSRC

dtW

dW

)(

E: excretion

C: consumption

R: respiration (loses through metabolism)

S: specific dynamic action (digesting food)

F: egestion

P: egg production

MortalityFishing: age specificEgg to age1: implicit in spawner – recruit relationshipNatural: constant + predator dependent

Assumptions in NEMURO.SANAssumptions in NEMURO.SAN

PredatorDo not grow or dieMove based on neighboring cell with highest prey biomass (anchovy + sardine) Daily mortality rate of anchovy and sardine individuals in a cell is proportional to predator biomass in that cell

ReproductionFor simplicity, use spawner-recruit relationshipsardine: Jan.1-Sep.7, anchovy: Jan.1-May.30Individuals mature at age-2sardine： 35.7g, anchovy: 10.5g