Max Beilby (Royal Bank of Scotland)

Image credit: Inc.com

Top dog: the role of overconfidence in career success

Positive illusions

• Optimism bias

• Overconfidence

• Illusion of control

Leonardo Dicaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

Deceit & Self-deception

“Applied more broadly, the

general argument is that we

deceive ourselves the better

to deceive others…”

Robert Trivers (Presidential Fellow, Chapman University)

Deceit & Self-deception

“To fool others, we may be tempted to

reorganize information internally in all sorts of

improbably ways and to do so largely

unconsciously. From the simple premise that the

primary function of self-deception is offensive-

measured in the ability to fool others- we can

build up a theory and science of self-deception.”

Robert Trivers (Presidential Fellow, Chapman University)

Evidence

• Anderson, C., Brion, S., Moore, D. A., & Kennedy, J. A. (2012). A status-enhancement account of overconfidence. Journal of personality and social

psychology, 103(4), 718.

• Kennedy, J. A., Anderson, C., & Moore, D. A. (2013). When overconfidence is revealed to others: Testing the status-enhancement theory of

overconfidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 122(2), 266-279.

• Ronay, R., Oostrom, J. K., Lehmann-Willenbrock, N., & Van Vugt, M. (2017). Pride before the fall:(Over) confidence predicts escalation of public commitment. Journal

of Experimental Social Psychology, 69, 13-22.

Managing talent

“One of the problems with talent is that in order to persuade others that you have it, it is often enough just to persuade yourself...”

Tomas Chamorro Premuzic (Professor of Business Psychology, UCL.CEO Hogan Assessments)

Managing talent

“From an evolutionary perspective, this is one of the few apparent benefits of overconfidence… [I]f you are unaware of your weaknesses you will probably not convey many insecurities to others, and others may be misled into thinking that you are competent – for you seem confident in your abilities… [B]ut make no mistake; although this can help individuals to fake competence in the short-term, it comes at the long-term detriment to the group or collective.”

Tomas Chamorro Premuzic (Professor of Business Psychology, UCL.CEO Hogan Assessments)

Implications

Image credit: Getty Images

Implications

Image credit: Robert Daly via Getty Images

Thank you.

References • Anderson, C., Brion, S., Moore, D. A., & Kennedy, J. A. (2012). A status-enhancement account of overconfidence. Journal of personality and social psychology, 103(4), 718.

• Bianchi, E. C. (2014). Entering adulthood in a recession tempers later narcissism. Psychological science, 25(7), 1429-1437.

• Chamorro-Premuzic, T. (2017). The Talent Delusion: Why data, not intuition, is the key to unlocking human potential. Piatkus.

• Heck, P. R., Simons, D. J., & Chabris, C. F. (2018). 65% of Americans believe they are above average in intelligence: Results of two nationally representative surveys. PloS one, 13(7), e0200103.

• Hippel, V. (2010) Why it pays to be overconfident. Huffington Post Blog, Australia. Available here: https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/bill-von-hippel/post_10498_b_8570570.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer_us=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_cs=FSkeeYkiD0xtZjBIWLmQZQ

• Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking: Fast and Slow. London: Allen Lane

• Kennedy, J. A., Anderson, C., & Moore, D. A. (2013). When overconfidence is revealed to others: Testing the status-enhancement theory of overconfidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 122(2), 266-279.

• Kunda, Z. and Nisbett, R.E. (1986). Prediction and the partial understanding of the law of large numbers. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 22, 339-354

• Johnson, D. D. (2004). Overconfidence and War: The havoc and glory of positive illusions. Harvard University Press.

• Leckelt, M., Back, M. D., Foster, J. D., Hutteman, R., Jaeger, G., McCain, J., ... & Campbell, W. K. (2016). Entering adulthood in a recession tempers later narcissism–But only in men. Journal of Research in Personality, 60, 8-11.

• Murphy, S. C., von Hippel, W., Dubbs, S. L., Angilletta Jr, M. J., Wilson, R. S., Trivers, R., & Barlow, F. K. (2015). The role of overconfidence in romantic desirability and competition. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 41(8), 1036-1052.

• Ronay, R. D., Oostrom, J. K., & Lehmann-Willenbrock, N. K. (2015). Pride before the fall: Overconfidence, leadership selection, and escalating commitment. Paper presented at the 17th Conference of the European Association of Work and Organizational Psychology (EAWOP), Oslo, Norway

• Simler, K., & Hanson, R. (2017). The Elephant in the Brain: Hidden Motives in Everyday Life. Oxford University Press.

• Smith, M. K., Trivers, R., & von Hippel, W. (2017). Self-deception facilitates interpersonal persuasion. Journal of Economic Psychology, 63, 93-101.

• Todorov, A. (2017). Face value: The irresistible influence of first impressions. Princeton University Press.

• Trivers, R. (2011). The Folly of Fools: The logic of deceit and self-deception in human life. Basic Books (AZ).

• Van Veelen, M., & Nowak, M. A. (2011). Evolution: Selection for positive illusions. Nature, 477(7364), 282.

• Van Vugt, M. & Ahuja, A. (2010) Selected: Why some people lead, why others follow, and why it matters. Profile Books

• Von Hippel, W., & Trivers, R. (2011). Reflections on self-deception. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 34(1), 41-56.