Illinois Economics Association

39th

Annual Meetings

October 16-17, 2009

Hosted by

The Department of Economics

University of Illinois – Chicago

601 S. Morgan St.

University Hall, Suite 2105

Chicago, IL 60607

http://www.uic.edu/depts/econ/iea/index.html

Parking at UIC parking ramp across Halsted St. from SCE

CTA: Halsted St. exit on the Blue Line

Registration Fee (includes lunch on Friday): $45 Regular Fee

$30 students

U of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Dominican U, U of Illinois at Chicago, Northwestern Loyola U. of Chicago, DePaul U, Northern Illinois U, Lewis U, U of Chicago U of Guelph. U of Iowa, Indiana U-NW Waubonsee Community College

U of California at Davis, St. Norbert College, Western Illinois Southern Illinois University U of Iowa, Wheaton College The

Washington College, Elm College, U of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Dominican U, U of Illinois at Chicago, Loyola U of Chicago, DePaul U, U of

Palermo, Centers for Economic Education, Laval U,

U Cal Davis, Lewis U Northwestern U, Indiana U-NW St Norbert College U of Wisconsin-La Crosse, U of Iowa, Northern Illinois U, Wheaton College The Gustavus Adolphu., University of Iowa, College, Univ. of Illinois at Urban Dominican Univ., Western Illinois U. of Illinois at Chica Eastern Loyola, Western Illinois U of Chicago, DePaul Lewis U, Northwestern, U of Chic University of Iowa, Loyola Univ. of Cal at Davis, Waubonsee Community Indiana U-NW, Iowa, St Norbert College, Dominican U. U of Wisconsin-LaCrosse, Centers for Economic Educ. Northern Illinois U, Wheaton College, Eastern Illinois U., U of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Dominican U, U of Illinois at Chicago, Western Illinois U Loyol

U of Chicago, DePaul University Waubonsee Community College, Laval U, U Cal Davis, Lewis U, Northwestern U, Indiana U-NW, St. Norbert College, Iowa, Washington College, Northern Illinois U, The Southern Illinois University, Wheaton College, Elmhurst College, Lake Forest College, , Loyola U., Gus Eastern Illinois U, U of Chicago, U of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Dominican University, University of Illinois at Chicago

Welcome to the 39th

annual meetings of the Illinois Economic Association! We have an

exciting program in store for this year’s conference which we hope you find both

informative and interesting.

The highlights of this year’s program include:

Fourteen different sessions on a wide variety of topics, spanning macroeconomics to economic history to microeconomics. One particularly timely session is a roundtable discussion on the current financial and economic crisis.

Our distinguished luncheon speaker this year is Robert Kallen, a visiting professor of economics at DePaul University. Besides being a political activist, Bob is the founder of RSK Strategies, LLC, a local venture capital firm. In addition, he served on the Clinton/Gore transition team for economics, and was a legislative assistant for Senator Paul Tsongas. Bob’s talk is entitled, “The Political and Economic Policy Choices and Ramifications of President Obama's first 250 days--but who's counting?”

The Center for Economic Education at the University of Illinois – Chicago has organized three sessions on teaching economics. One particularly exciting session involves the FED Challenge Team from UIC who will be debating the U.S. Economic Outlook.

Please be sure to visit our publisher-friends who have graciously set up booths displaying their latest books and journals. We are grateful for their continued support.

Given the success of this in the past, we are again holding an award competition for the Best Graduate Student Paper in Economics.

The Executive Committee would like to thank all of those who helped make this conference a

success. In particular, we like to thank: the many session chairs who took time out of their busy

schedules to organize the 14 sessions; Carol Martell, who did so much of the administrative

activities and without her help these meetings would have been chaotic; Nik Kohrt who helped

with the layout and production of this program; Houston Stokes, for his continued efforts in

maintaining the Association’s website; and to the University of Illinois – Chicago, for their

continued support and for providing us a venue to hold these meetings.

Finally, I would like to thank all of the members of the Executive Committee of the Illinois

Economic Association who helped me organize this conference. These members are very devoted

colleagues and have served the Association for a number of years. It was my pleasure and

privilege to have worked with them.

Don’t forget that next year’s conference, the 40th annual meetings of the Illinois Economic

Association, will be held on October 15 & 16, 2010.

Sincerely,

Anthony C. Krautmann

President-Elect, Illinois Economics Association

Professor of Economics, DePaul University

CONFERENCE SCHEDULE AT A GLANCE

FRIDAY (10/16)

Time Session # Title of Session Room

8:30-3:30pm Registration (3rd

floor SCE)

8:30-9:00am COFFEE BREAK

9:00-10:30am Concurrent Sessions A

A1 CEE I 611 SCE

A2 Regions, Industries and Energy 603 SCE

10:30-10:45am COFFEE BREAK

10:45-12:15pm Concurrent Sessions B

B1 CEE II 611 SCE

B2 Issues in Financial Derivatives 603 SCE

B3 Applied Macro 315 SCE

12:20-1:40pm LUNCHEON 302 SCE

1:45-3:15pm Concurrent Sessions C

C1 Current Financial Crisis 603 SCE

C2 Environmental Econ. 611 SCE

C3 Economic History 315 SCE

3:15-3:30pm COFFEE BREAK

3:30-5:00pm Concurrent Sessions D

D1 CEE III 611 SCE

D2 Public Finance 315 SCE

D3 International Econ. 603 SCE

CONFERENCE SCHEDULE AT A GLANCE (Con’t)

SATURDAY (10/17)

Time Session # Title of Session Room

9:00-10:30am

Registration (3rd

floor SCE)

9:00-9:30am COFFEE BREAK

9:30-11:00am Concurrent Sessions E E1 Sports Econ. 603 SCE

E2 Topics in Applied Micro 611 SCE

E3 Forensic Economics 315 SCE

11:00-11:15am COFFEE BREAK

11:15-12:15pm Graduate Students Papers 315 SCE

12:15pm Graduate Students Paper Awards 315 SCE

12:20pm Annual Meeting of IEA Trustees 315 SCE

SESSION A-1: CENTERS FOR ECONOMIC EDUCATION I:

FED CHALLENGE TEAM -- U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

(Friday, Oct 16, 9:00 – 10:30am)

Session Organizer and Chair: Helen Roberts, Associate Director, Center for Economic

Education, University of Illinois at Chicago, hroberts@uic.edu

UIC Shadow Fed Challenge Team: Tammy Arnaud, Andrew Crowley,

Adam Jokich, Pallavi Mishra, Michal Saracen, Dorothy White,

Michael Woolforth, Eric Yiu

SESSION A-2: REGIONS, INDUSTRY, AND ENERGY

(Friday, Oct 16, 9:00 – 10:30am)

Session Organizer and Chair: William Testa, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago,

Wtesta@frbchi.org

1. “Multinominal Estimates of Household Location in Chicago,”

William Sander, DePaul University, wsander@depaul.edu

William Testa, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Wtesta@frbchi.org

Discussant: David Merriman, Univ. of Illinois at Chicago, dmerrim@uic.edu

2. “Trouble in the Market for Manufacturing Workers?”

Britton Lombardi, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Blombard@frbchi.org

William Testa, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Wtesta@frbchi.org

Discussant: session participants

3. “Price Signals and Consumers’ Energy Conservation Behavior: The Case of

Responsiveness in Residential HVAC Technologies from 1992-2004,”

Brett M. Baden , Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning,

Bbaden@cmap.ill.gov

Doug Noonan, Georgia Institute of Technology,

douglas.noonan@pubpolicy.gatech.edu

Discussant: Thomas Klier, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, tklier@frbchi.org

SESSION B-1: CENTERS FOR ECONOMIC EDUCATION II

(Friday, Oct 16, 10:45 – 12:15pm)

Session Organizer and Chair: Helen Roberts, Associate Director, Center for Economic

Education, University of Illinois at Chicago, hroberts@uic.edu

1. “Teaching Causal Inference in Undergraduate Econometrics”

Steffen Habermalz, Northwestern University,

s-habermalz@northwestern.edu

2. “After School Matters: Advancing the Financial Literacy of High School Students”

Helen Roberts, UIC, hroberts@uic.edu

Margo Sorgman, UIC and Indiana University Kokomo, msorgman@iuk.edu

Luis Guillermo Serpa, UIC, lserpa1@uic.edu

Kathy Parkison, Indiana University Kokomo, kparkiso@iuk.edu

3. “What Happened to Linear Programming?”

Richard Peck, UIC, rmpeck@uic.edu

Helen Roberts, UIC, hroberts@uic.edu

SESSION B-2 ISSUES IN FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES

(Friday, Oct 16, 10:45 – 12:15pm)

Session Organizer and Chair: Jin Choi, DePaul University, jchoi@depaul.edu

1. "Using Option Pricing Models in the Real World”

Shelly Natenberg, Chicago Trading Company, shellynat@aol.com.

Discussant: Frank Rose, Lewis University, rosefr@lewisu.edu.

2. "Gold, Oil, and the Euro: Hypotheses, Time Series and Neural Network Analysis

for Futures Data"

Tassos Malliaris, Loyola University of Chicago, tmallia@luc.edu

Mary Malliaris, Loyola University of Chicago, mmallia@luc.edu

Discussant: Peter Alonzi, Dominican University, lpalonzi@dom.edu.

3. “Exchange Based Risk Management – Evolution of the Clearing Model”

John Nyhoff, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, john.nyhoff@cmegroup.com.

Discussant: Nick Ronalds, Futures Industry Association-Asia,

nronalds@fiaasia.org.

SESSION B-3: APPLIED MACROECONOMICS

(Friday, Oct 16, 10:45 – 12:15pm)

Session Organizer and Chair: Georgios Karras, University of Illinois - Chicago,

gkarras@uic.edu

1. “Adjustment Costs, the Marginal Product of Capital, and the Lucas Paradox”

Robert S. Chirinko, University of Illinois at Chicago,

chirinko@uic.edu

2. “Executive-Branch Transgressions in the Depth of the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis”

George M. von Furstenberg, Indiana University, vonfurst@indiana.edu

3. "Energy Prices and International Business Cycles"

Agust Eiriksson, Hanover College, eiriksson@hanover.edu

4. . “Are the Effects of Tax Changes Asymmetric? Evidence from a Panel of OECD

Countries”

Georgios Karras, University of Illinois at Chicago, gkarras@uic.edu

SESSION C-1 ROUNDTABLE:CURRENT FINANCIAL CRISIS

(Friday, Oct 16, 1:45-3:15pm)

Session Organizer and Chair: Jin Choi, DePaul University, jchoi@depaul.edu

Roundtable participants:

1. "The US Financial Crisis: Current State and Future Prospects"

Tom Mondschean, DePaul University; tmondsch@depaul.edu

2. "Recent Monetary Policy: Preventing Another Great Depression? Creating

Conditions for Another Great Inflation?”

Marc Hayford, Loyola University - Chicago, mhayfor@luc.edu

3. “The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Asian Derivatives Markets”

Nick Ronalds, Futures Industry Association- Asia, , nronalds@fiaasia.org

SESSION C-2 ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS

(Friday, Oct 16, 1:45-3:15pm)

Session Organizer and Chair: Carol Tallarico, Dominican University, ctalla@dom.edu

1. “Climate Change, Ecological Thresholds, and Economic Impacts: Integrating

Climate Science and Economics”

Kenneth J. Bagstad, Consulting Ecological Economist, kbagstad@uvm.edu

Discussant: Houston Stokes, hhstokes@uic.edu

2. “The Real Estate Price Impact of Proximity to a Superfund Site: The Case of

Milwaukee”

Russell Kashian, University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, kashianr@uww.edu

Discussant: Kenneth Bagstad, kbagstad@uvm.edu

3. “The Effect of Ozone on Life Expectancy: An Empirical Study Using Data from 52

U.S. Cities”

Richard Kosobud, University of Illinois at Chicago

Houston H. Stokes, University of Illinois at Chicago, hhstokes@uic.edu

Douglas Schreder, National Lewis University

Discussant: Russell Kashian, kashianr@uww.edu

SESSION C-3: ECONOMIC HISTORY

(Friday, Oct 16, 1:45-3:15pm)

Session Organizers and Chairs: Louis Cain, Loyola University and Northwestern

University, lcain@northwestern.edu, and Laura Owen, DePaul University,

lowen@depaul.edu

1. "The Long-Term Persistence of Social Capital: Residential Clustering among

Union Army Veterans"

Joey Burton, University of Chicago CPE

Carlos Villarreal, University of Illinois Chicago - carlos@cpe.uchicago.edu

Sven Wilson, Brigham Young University

Discussant: Laura Owen, DePaul University, lowen@depaul.edu

2. "Patent Pools and the Direction of Technical Change: Evidence from the Sewing

Machine Combination, 1856-1877"

Ryan Lampe, DePaul University, rlampe@depaul.edu

Petra Moser, Stanford University, pmoser@stanford.edu

Discussant: Mark Guglielmo, University of Illinois – Chicago,

markg@cpe.uchicago.edu

SESSION D-1: CENTERS FOR ECONOMIC EDUCATION III:

WHAT ECONOMICS THE GENERAL PUBLIC NEEDS TO KNOW

(Friday, Oct 16, 3:30-5:00pm)

Session Organizer and Chair: Helen Roberts, Associate Director, Center for Economic

Education, University of Illinois at Chicago, hroberts@uic.edu

Panel: Deirdre McCloskey, University of Illinois at Chicago, (in absentia)

Lawrence Officer, University of Illinois at Chicago, lofficer@uic.edu

Joanne Dempsey, Econ Illinois, jrd@niu.edu

SESSION D-2: PUBLIC FINANCE

(Friday, Oct 16, 3:30-5:00pm)

Session Organizer and Chair: Richard M. Peck, University of Illinois - Chicago,

rmpeck@uic.edu

1. "Housing Appreciation (Depreciation) and Owner's Welfare”

David Merriman, University of Illinois - Chicago, dmerrim@uic.edu

2. “Voting Patterns in Turkey”

Ali Akarca, University of Illinois - Chicago, akarca@uic.edu

3. “Property Taxes and Subprime Mortgages Delinquency"

Nate Anderson, University of Illinois - Chicago, nba@uic.edu

SESSION D-3: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

(Friday, Oct 16, 3:30-5:00pm)

Session Chair: Bala Batavia, DePaul University, bbatavia@depaul.edu

1. “Public Information and Foreign Direct Investment”

Laurel Adams, Northern Illinois University, ladams5@niu.edu

Rebecca Neumann, University of Wisconsin- Milwaukee

Discussant: Animesh Ghoshal, DePaul University, aghoshal@depaul.edu

2. “Beyond the CFA Franc: An Empirical Analysis of the Choice of Exchange Rate

Regime in the UEMOA”

Assande Des’ Adom, Eastern Illinois University, aadom@eiu.edu

Discussant: Laurel Adams, Northern Illinois University, ladams5@niu.edu

3. “Comparative Trade Opening Among the G7: Middle Goods and the Integration of

Developing Economies”

John Berdell, DePaul University, jberdell@depaul.edu

Animesh Ghoshal, DePaul University, aghoshal@depaul.edu

Discussant: Assande Des’ Adom, Eastern Illinois University, aadom@eiu.edu

SESSION E-1: SPORTS ECONOMICS

(Saturday, Oct 17, 9:30-11:00am)

Session Organizer and Chair: Kevin Quinn, St. Norbert College, kevin.quinn@snc.edu

1. “Invitation to the Big Dance: NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Selection”

Stacey L. Brook, stacey-brook@uiowa.edu

Discussant: Kevin G. Quinn, St. Norbert College, kevin.quinn@snc.edu

2. “Impatience and Opportunity in the Trading Market for NFL Draft Picks”

Paul Bursik, St. Norbert College, paul.bursik@snc.edu

Discussant: John Solow, University of Iowa, john-solow@uiowa.edu

3. “Franchise Tags in the NFL”

Dennis Coates, University of Maryland – Baltimore County

John Solow, University of Iowa, john-solow@uiowa.edu

Anthony C. Krautmann, DePaul University, akrautma@depaul.edu

Kevin Quinn, St. Norbert College, kevin.quinn@snc.edu

Discussant: Stacey Brook, stacey-brook@uiowa.edu

SESSION E-2: TOPICS IN MICROECONOMICS

(Saturday, Oct 17, 9:30-11:00am)

Session Chair: Margaret Oppenheimer, DePaul University, moppenhe@depaul.edu

1. “The Impact of Dementia on Family Labor Supply and Earnings”

Virginia Wilcox-Gok, Northern Illinois University, vlw@niu.edu

Discussant: Thomas Donley, DePaul University, tdonley@depaul.edu

2. “Extreme Risk Measures for REITs: A Comparison among Alternative Methods”

Jian Zhou, University of Guelph, jian@uoguelph.ca

Discussant: Jin Man Lee, DePaul University, jlee141@depaul.edu

3. “What Makes a Good Auction Page?”

Gabriella Bucci, DePaul University, gbucci@depaul.edu

Margaret Oppenheimer, DePaul University, moppenhe@depaul.edu

E-3 FORENSIC ECONOMICS

(Saturday, Oct 17, 9:30-11:00am)

Session Organizer and Chair: James Ciecka, DePaul University, jciecka@depaul.edu

1. “Alternative Wage Indices and Present Value”

Arthur A. Eubank, Jr., Eubank Economics, Inc., art@eubankeconomics.com

Anna Shostya, Pace University, edandan@aol.com

A. Andrew Eubank, III, Eubank Economics, Inc., andrew.eubank@gmail.com

Discussant: William M.G. Pearson, Spectrum Economics,

pearson@spectrumeconomics.com

2. “The GED and Worklife Expectancy and Other Distributional Characteristics of

Time in the Labor Force”

James Ciecka, DePaul University, jciecka@depaul.edu

Kurt Krueger, Ward Economics, Krueger@johnwardeconomics.com

Gary Skoog, DePaul University, gskoog@depaul.edu

DEPAUL’S AD GOES HERE

ST.NORBERT’S AD GOES HERE

Distinguished Luncheon Speaker

ROBERT KALLEN, J.D.

“The Political and Economic Policy Choices and Ramifications of President Obama's First 250 days--But Who's Counting?”

Robert Kallen has taught for 25 years and is currently a visiting professor of economics at

DePaul University, where he was the recipient of the 2007 Daniel Seiden Teaching Award.

Prior to coming to DePaul, he was an adjunct professor at the Lake Forest Graduate School

of Management, where he received the 2002 Distinguished Faculty Award and the 2007

and 2008 Teaching Excellence Award.

Bob founded RSK Strategies, LLC, which provides expertise and capital to small and

growing companies specializing in the food and education sectors. He was the Vice

President of Operations and General Counsel for Bake-Line Products, Inc. and a staff

attorney at both the FTC and the Environmental Law and Policy Center of the Midwest.

Additionally, Bob served on the 1992 Clinton/Gore transition team for economics, as well

as a legislative assistant for Senator Paul Tsongas.

Bob received a B. A. from the University of Illinois, a M.A. in Economics and a J.D. from

Washington University in St. Louis. Finally, in 2002, Mr. Kallen was awarded a

Rockefeller Next Generation Leadership Fellowship.

The IEA would like to extend our most sincere gratitude

to its sponsors for their generous support:

Farmdoc – UIUC

McGraw-Hill Higher Education

Office for Futures and Options Research – UIUC

St. Norbert College

DePaul University – Department of Economics

University of Illinois – Department of Economics

UIC Center for Economic Education

Pearson Higher Education

2009 IEA Participants (Session Number)

Laurel Adams, Northern Illinois University, ladams5@niu.edu (D3)

Ali Akarca, University of Illinois - Chicago, akarca@uic.edu (D2)

Peter Alonzi, Dominican University, lpalonzi@dom.edu (B2)

Nate Anderson, University of Illinois - Chicago, nba@uic.edu (D2)

Brett M. Baden , Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning, Bbaden@cmap.ill.gov (A2)

Kenneth J. Bagstad, Consulting Ecological Economist, kbagstad@uvm.edu (C2)

Bala Batavia, DePaul University, bbatavia@depaul.edu

John Berdell, DePaul University, jberdell@depaul.edu (D3)

Stacey L. Brook, University of Iowa, stacey-brook@uiowa.edu (E1)

Gabriella Bucci, DePaul University, gbucci@depaul.edu (E2)

Paul Bursik, St. Norbert College, paul.bursik@snc.edu (E1)

Louis Cain, Loyola University – Chicago and Northwestern University,

lcain@northwestern.edu (C3)

Robert S. Chirinko, University of Illinois at Chicago, chirinko@uic.edu (B3)

Jin Choi, DePaul University, jchoi@depaul.edu (B2)

James Ciecka, DePaul University, jciecka@depaul.edu (E3)

Assande Des’ Adom, Eastern Illinois University, aadom@eiu.edu (D3)

Thomas Donley, DePaul University, tdonley@depaul.edu (E2)

Agust Eiriksson, Hanover College, eiriksson@hanover.edu (B3)

A. Andrew Eubank, III, Eubank Economics, Inc., andrew.eubank@gmail.com (E3)

Arthur A. Eubank, Jr., Eubank Economics, Inc., art@eubankeconomics.com (E3)

Animesh Ghoshal, DePaul University, aghoshal@depaul.edu (D3)

Mark Guglielmo, University of Illinois – Chicago, markg@cpe.uchicago.edu (C3)

Marc Hayford, Loyola University - Chicago, mhayfor@luc.edu (C1)

George Karras, University of Illinois at Chicago, gkarras@uic.edu (B3)

Russell Kashian, University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, kashianr@uww.edu (C2)

Thomas Klier, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, tklier@frbchi.org (A2)

Kurt Krueger, Ward Economics, Krueger@johnwardeconomics.com (E3)

Ryan Lampe, DePaul University, rlampe@depaul.edu (C3)

Jin Man Lee, DePaul University, jlee141@depaul.edu (E2)

Britton Lombardi, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Blombard@frbchi.org (A2)

Mary Malliaris, Loyola University of Chicago, mmallia@luc.edu (B2)

Tassos Malliaris, Loyola University of Chicago, tmallia@luc.edu (B2)

David Merriman, Univ. of Illinois at Chicago, dmerrim@uic.edu (A2, D2)

Tom Mondschean, DePaul University; tmondsch@depaul.edu (C1)

Shelly Natenberg, Chicago Trading Company, shellynat@aol.com. (B2)

Doug Noonan, Georgia Institute of Technology, douglas.noonan@pubpolicy.gatech.edu

(A2)

John Nyhoff, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, john.nyhoff@cmegroup.com. (B2)

Maggie Oppenheimer, DePaul University, moppenhe@depaul.edu (E2)

Laura Owen, DePaul University, lowen@depaul.edu (C3)

William M.G. Pearson, Spectrum Economics, pearson@spectrumeconomics.com (E3

Richard M. Peck, University of Illinois - Chicago, rmpeck@uic.edu (D2)

Kevin Quinn, St. Norbert College, kevin.quinn@snc.edu (E1)

Helen Roberts, Center for Economic Education, University of Illinois at Chicago,

hroberts@uic.edu (A1, B1, D1)

Nick Ronalds, Futures Industry Association- Asia, nronalds@fiaasia.org (B2, C1)

Frank Rose, Lewis University, rosefr@lewisu.edu (B2)

William Sander, DePaul University, wsander@depaul.edu (A2)

Anna Shostya, Pace University, edandan@aol.com (E3)

Gary Skoog, DePaul University, gskoog@depaul.edu (E3)

John Solow, University of Iowa, john-solow@uiowa.edu (E1)

Houston H. Stokes, University of Illinois at Chicago, hhstokes@uic.edu (C2)

Carol Tallarico, Dominican University, ctalla@dom.edu (C2)

William Testa, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Wtesta@frbchi.org, (A2)

Carlos Villarreal, University of Illinois Chicago - carlos@cpe.uchicago.edu (C3)

George M. von Furstenberg, Indiana University, vonfurst@indiana.edu (B3)

Virginia Wilcox-Gok, Northern Illinois University, vlw@niu.edu (E2)

Jian Zhou, University of Guelph, jian@uoguelph.ca (E2)