IISS news July 2016

The 15th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue was held in Singapore from 3–5 June 2016 amid rising tension in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in the South China Sea. In his introductory comments before the Dialogue’s Keynote Address on the even-ing of Friday, 3 June, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive Dr John Chipman noted that the Dialogue’s ‘enduring goal’ was to inspire ‘astute defence diplomacy’ in the Asia-Pacific region. In order to provide ‘the best intellectual underpin-ning’ for the Dialogue, the Institute had published ‘a remarkable range of material’ during the weeks

leading up to the Dialogue, he said. These publi-cations included the latest edition of The Military Balance, the 2016 Asia-Pacific Regional Assessment, two Adelphi books, and an important report on the European Union’s security policy options in Southeast Asia. These had helped to create ‘the fac-tual and analytical context’ for the meeting, which brought together defence ministers and defence professionals from around the Asia-Pacific and beyond to debate regional security issues.

Introducing the Keynote Speaker, Thailand’s Prime Minister General (Retd) Prayut Chan-o-cha,

Chipman noted that this leader and his government had pursued policies aimed at radically reform-ing their country’s political scene since they came to power in 2014. The audience at the Shangri-La Hotel was fortunate, said Chipman, to have the chance to hear the prime minister, who had not pre-viously spoken extensively either to international audiences or on regional and international themes.

Prayut began his address by agreeing that the Shangri-La Dialogue had ‘played a significant role in the promotion of cooperation in terms of regional security among all our countries’. He also

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15th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue: A Defence Summit amid Rising Regional Tension

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General (Retd) Prayut Chan-o-cha, Prime Minister, Thailand

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noted Singapore’s ‘significant role’ in promot-ing regional security, and referred to the first Prime Minister of Singapore Lee Kuan Yew’s observations on this theme when he delivered his own Keynote Address at the first Shangri-La Dialogue in 2002. He particularly highlighted Lee’s predictions that ‘more countries would play a role in our region’ and that ‘international terrorism would spread’.

The notion of ‘balance’ was central to Prayut’s address. He noted the lack of it in the

‘regional architecture’, and particularly that ‘many countries’ were concerned that China’s growing economic and security roles would ‘affect the balance of power and security in the Asia-Pacific’. In Prayut’s view, it was necessary for ASEAN to ‘be united and play a critical role in creating a new strategic balance in the region’. The prime minister spoke about the challenges of creating such a balance, and specifically about the need to promote trust between regional states, the importance of partnerships and assis-

tance aimed at narrowing development gaps between states, strengthening relations with neighbouring countries in order to avoid the need to ‘choose sides’, promoting cooperation between major powers involved in the region, re-evaluating notions of sovereignty, promot-ing ‘development in tandem with security’, and recognising the need to cooperate on specific security issues of regional and international con-cern: the South China Sea and East China Sea; the Korean Peninsula; terrorism and extrem-ism; arms proliferation; irregular migration; cyber-security; and environmental threats and natural disasters. Regarding regional maritime tensions, Prayut emphasised the importance of not only ASEAN unity and the implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, but also the need for claim-ant states to ‘change their perspectives’ and ‘carry out constructive activities … for mutual benefit’ on the basis of international law.

In the final part of his Keynote Address, Prayut focused on Thailand’s domestic chal-lenges, stressing that the country was ‘in a period of transition to a robust and sustainable democracy’ while confronting ‘complex and multidimensional security issues’. He explained that ‘the issue that affects us most is political conflict and a more divided population than has ever been seen before’, resulting in ‘a disorderly society’. If these issues were ignored, Thailand would ‘lose its balance, which may lead to conflict and civil war’. In these circumstances, Prayut believed he had no choice but ‘to use military force to re-stabilise the country’. The

Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

General (Retd) Prayut Chan-o-cha, Prime Minister, Thailand

One of the IISS publications launched at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue was an important report on the European Union’s security policy options in Southeast Asia

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challenge for Thailand was how to resolve these issues, while making ‘the global community understand that we do not wish to violate the rights of the people’. The prime minister argued that reforms had so far been effective, and were being implemented ‘on the basis of the law’.

The government was also taking action to improve the country’s economic competitive-ness. He asked Thailand’s allies ‘to stand with us’ as his government attempted to create ‘a new balance, a new understanding’. Thailand’s return to democracy, he said, would ‘help to maintain balance within ASEAN’, which in turn would help create a ‘new balance in the Asia-Pacific region’. Concluding, Prayut said that ‘since wars begin in the minds of men, it is in the minds of men that the defence of peace must begin’.

Meeting Asia’s Complex Security ChallengesIn the Dialogue’s first plenary session, on the morning of 4 June, United States Secretary of Defense Dr Ashton Carter noted the ‘historic change’ underway in the Asia-Pacific, most of which was positive: ‘country after coun-try is seeking to play a greater role in regional affairs, and that is for the good’. However, he also highlighted ‘tensions in the South China Sea, North Korea’s continued nuclear missile provocations and the dangers of violent extrem-ism’ as challenges to the region’s ‘stability and prosperity’, and spoke of the need for ‘for-ward-thinking statesmen and leaders’ to come together to ‘ensure a positive and principled future … where everybody and every nation

continues to have the opportunity and freedom to rise, to prosper and to win’.

Carter used the word ‘principled’ repeatedly during his plenary address, above all in the con-text of the ‘principled security network’ that the US is encouraging across the Asia-Pacific. Carter noted that this growing network ‘includes, but is more than, some extension of existing alliances’. The US would remain ‘for decades’, ‘the pri-mary provider of regional security and a leading contributor’ to this network. The Department of Defense was deploying some of its ‘most advanced capabilities’ to the region, including F-22 and F-35 combat aircraft, P-8 maritime patrol aircraft and ‘our newest surface-warfare ships’. Simultaneously, it was investing in new capabilities ‘critical to the rebalance’, including Virginia-class submarines and the B-21 long-range bomber. Carter emphasised that it would ‘take decades or more for anyone to build the kind of military capability the United States possesses’. Moreover, America’s ‘military edge is strengthened and honed in unrivalled and hard-earned operational experience’.

The defense secretary stressed that ‘America’s defence relationships with allies and partners are the foundation of US engage-ment in the Asia-Pacific’. The US–Japan alliance ‘remains the cornerstone of Asia-Pacific secu-rity’, according to Carter, while the US–Australia alliance was ‘more and more a global one’. The alliance with the Philippines was ‘as close as it has been in decades’. At the same time, the ‘strategic handshake’ between the US and India was allowing them to exercise together ‘by air,

land and sea’. US President Barack Obama’s ‘historic visit to Hanoi’ the previous week had demonstrated the ‘dramatically strengthened US–Vietnam partnership’, while the US and Singapore were ‘working together to build cooperation, provide security and respond to crises in Southeast Asia’.

Carter explained that through the Maritime Security Initiative that he had announced at the previous year’s Shangri-La Dialogue the US was helping Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam to develop their maritime surveillance, communications and information-processing capabilities, and to ‘develop a networked approach to regional challenges’. He said that throughout the region countries were coming together in three ways: through trilateral mechanisms including the US (for example, the US–Japan–Republic of Korea partnership coordinating responses to North Korean provocations); bilateral and trilateral partnerships among Asian states (such as mari-time exercises involving Japan and Vietnam); and through creating ‘a networked multilat-eral regional security architecture’ in the form of the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus (ADMM-Plus).

The defense secretary argued that ‘this principled network’ was ‘not aimed at any par-ticular country: it is open and excludes no-one’. In particular, the US ‘welcomes the emergence of a peaceful, stable and prosperous China that plays a responsible role’. He said the US was consistently encouraging China to uphold rather than undermine ‘the shared principles’ that had served the region ‘so well for so long’. Crucially, though, he also pointed to ‘growing anxiety in this region, and in this room, about China’s activities on the seas, in cyberspace and in the region’s airspace’, noting ‘expansive and unprecedented actions that have generated concerns about China’s strategic intentions’. In Carter’s view, ‘China’s actions in the South China Sea are isolating it’; if these actions con-tinued, ‘China could end up erecting a Great Wall of self-isolation’.

The US, said Carter, would ‘stand with regional partners to uphold core principles, like freedom of navigation and overflight, and the peaceful resolution of disputes through legal means and in accordance with international law’. America would ‘continue to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows’. The US viewed the anticipated ruling on the South China Sea by the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration as ‘an opportunity for China and the rest of the region to recommit to a

Dr Ashton Carter, Secretary of Defense, United States

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principled future’. Concluding, Carter spoke of the US commitment to ‘working with China to ensure a principled future’, including through expanded military-to-military engagement focused not only on ‘risk reduction’ but also practical cooperation. He argued that through a principled security network, the US, China and others in the region could together meet the challenges ‘we are facing together’.

Managing Military Competition in AsiaIndian Minister of Defence Manohar Parrikar observed that Asia-Pacific countries were spending more on defence, and noted that some states were catching up after prolonged neglect of their defence budgets. In other countries, increased defence spending reflected new chal-lenges and roles for the armed forces.

Parrikar distinguished between low- probability, high-risk traditional security threats and continuous non-traditional threats that ranged in impact from the negligible to the dramatic. He outlined three main regional secu-rity challenges: traditional territorial disputes; terrorism; and a spectrum of threats in the maritime domain. According to Parrikar, shared prosperity and rapid growth were at risk from aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea. Noting that half of India’s trade passed through these waters, he underlined the right to freedom of navigation and overflight, and the impor-tance of adherence to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Parrikar argued that collective action (for example, on Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief) would improve

trust and confidence, thereby reducing the potential for military competition. He noted that India had contributed to combatting piracy and to projects on navigation safety. The Indian Ocean Naval Symposium was a collective endeavour to strengthen maritime security, and India had participated in maritime security dia-logues with Australia, China, France, Japan and the US and was building economic cooperation with maritime neighbours to reap the benefits of the ‘blue economy’.

Japan’s Minister of Defense, Gen Nakatani, spoke of Japan’s determination to work closely with ASEAN and explained the development of Japan’s Security Legislation. He underlined the indispensable role of the US military presence in the region and Japan’s support for America’s rebalance to the Asia-Pacific. Nakatani expressed Japan’s appreciation for Obama’s recent visit to Hiroshima and his appeal for a world free of nuclear weapons. Nakatani described the region as being at a crossroads and facing a choice between ‘might makes right’ and the rule of law.

Noting China’s large-scale and rapid land reclamation and military construction in the South China Sea, Nakatani expressed deep concern over unilateral attempts to alter the status quo and to challenge the maritime order. He was also concerned about China’s dan-gerous behaviour in the East China Sea and the potential for escalation there. Nakatani referred to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s 2014 Shangri-La Dialogue Keynote Address, which urged adherence to three basic principles: that

states should base their claims on international law; that they should not use force or coercion; and that states should seek to settle disputes peacefully. Revisiting his 2015 announcement of a ‘Shangri-La Dialogue Initiative’, Nakatani called for the implementation of its three ele-ments: the wider promotion of common rules and laws at sea in the region; discussions on maritime and aerospace security; and the enhancement of regional disaster-response capabilities.

Malaysia’s Defence Minister Dato’ Seri Hishammuddin Tun Hussein called for a tai-lored strategic approach to the ‘globalisation of security challenges’, not least in the fight against the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. He emphasised ISIS’s control over terri-tory and its force of more than 31,000 fighters, arguing that conventional counterterrorism and counter-insurgency would never work against it. Malaysia’s main platform for trust-building, according to Hishammuddin, was ASEAN, including the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM), which he argued had been critical in addressing maritime security, counter- terrorism, peacekeeping operations, and disas-ter relief. Hishammuddin suggested that joint exercises on uncontentious concerns could be a panacea for military competition. Referring to Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s rejection in his Keynote Address to the 2015 Shangri-La Dialogue of the notion that ‘might is right’, Hishammuddin observed that some major states might not necessarily obey the rules of the international system. In conclu-

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE DEFENCE POLICY FOREIGN POLICY

Manohar Parrikar, Minister of Defence, India Gen Nakatani, Minister of Defense, JapanDato’ Seri Hishammuddin Tun Hussein, Minister of Defence, Malaysia

MILITARY COOPERATION

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sion, Hishammuddin appealed for leadership and innovation in meeting regional security challenges, citing a recent agreement by the defence ministers of Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines to enhance cooperation on curb-ing threats in the Sulu Sea.

Making Defence Policy in Uncertain TimesIn the third plenary session, Indonesia’s Minister of Defense, General (Retd) Ryamizard Ryacudu, opened by arguing that with every country facing more complex and more dynamic secu-rity challenges than in the past, a coordinated response was necessary. The terrorist threat had taken on a new dimension, he said, with ISIS turning from a regional militia in Iraq and Syria into a transnational threat. The minister warned that ISIS might inspire radicals in Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia. He maintained that ISIS ideology was ultimately more dangerous than any damage the group might inflict on infrastructure, because the ideology aimed to undermine the national unity of countries such as Indonesia.

The minister singled out maritime security as another important area because of its impor-tance for global trade, which in turn was vital to support economic development in the region. Ryamizard expressed concern over disputes in the South China Sea, but also hope that inten-sive dialogue would lower tensions. Indonesia’s defence strategy, he proceeded to explain, was built on five core elements. First, defence equipment modernisation would improve the ability of the armed forces to safeguard terri-

torial integrity, counter transnational threats, and engage in peacekeeping activities. Second, Indonesia was trying to intensify defence coop-eration in the region to build confidence and trust. Third, increased coordination in ASEAN should also involve friendly countries from beyond the grouping. Fourth, Indonesia was trying to build-up support for defence in the population as part of its counter-radicalisation measures. Finally, the government was trying to empower state defence structures to adapt to a changing international environment, employ-ing both soft- and hard-power elements.

The Republic of Korea’s (ROK) Minister of National Defense, Han Minkoo, said military tensions on the Korean Peninsula were a grave and severe threat. North Korea’s recent nuclear tests and advances in missile technology in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) represented a clear escalation, which was further underlined by aggressive and unprece-dentedly strong rhetoric. International support, as expressed in UN Security Council Resolution 2270 on 2 March 2016, condemning the DPRK’s test and launch activities and imposing pow-erful sanctions, showed that the international community did not tolerate its behaviour. Han emphasised that while the ROK was interested in sincere dialogue, such dialogue must be pre-ceded by a strategic decision from the DPRK to relinquish its nuclear weapons.

While Asia remained a dynamic region and an engine of global economic growth, it was undeniable that tensions were on the rise. While the region had many formats for cooperation, it

still lacked an effective multilateral framework for security cooperation, the minister argued. There was no strong tradition of resolving dif-ferences through dialogue. While it was true that negotiations between directly affected par-ties often presented the best and most effective way forward in conflict resolution, sometimes these parties needed help and collective wisdom provided by others. For the ROK, multilateral defence cooperation with countries in the region was a core objective. From the perspective of the armed forces, activities in the areas of humani-tarian assistance and disaster relief, search and rescue, and combined maritime security exer-cises should be the foci, he said. The ROK would continue to stress multilateral security dialogue, building trust through transparency (including in the area of defence budgets), and conflict res-olution within the framework of international law and norms.

The United Kingdom’s Secretary of State for Defence, Michael Fallon, pointed to the UK’s 2015 Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR) to underline the fact that unpredict-ability was increasing in international security. There was a resurgence of state-based threats, and a simultaneous rise of non-state actors, and increasing aggression by rogue actors. Furthermore, said Fallon, governments were confronted with new mechanisms for waging war, such as cyber and hybrid approaches. In this context, it was not possible to pick and choose adversaries. The only response was to stand up firmly and build greater capac-ity and capability, which was the aim of the

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

General (Retd) Ryamizard Ryacudu, Minister of Defense, Indonesia

Han Minkoo, Minister of National Defense, Republic of Korea

Michael Fallon, Secretary of State for Defence, United Kingdom

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SDSR, according to Fallon. He suggested that once the UK’s new aircraft carriers came into service in the 2020s, they would sail in the region to support regional security. However, it was clear Fallon argued, that successful deterrence would not hinge on military might alone. Defence needed an integrated approach, uniting diplomacy and military means. He pointed to the UK’s cross government counter-ISIS task force which was working to fight the group’s ideology, cyber capability, and financial base. Fallon pointed to the assertiveness of the DPRK, concerns about terrorism, lingering ter-ritorial disputes, and non-traditional security challenges in the region, to suggest that there might be a new arc of instability emerging in the region. Because of this possibility, it was important to shore up the rules-based interna-tional order, strengthen alliances and do more with partners. This way, capabilities and capac-ity would increase while the costs of security and defence would come down. Referring to the Asia-Pacific, Fallon suggested the UK was ‘here to stay and here to help’.

The Challenges of Conflict ResolutionAs first speaker in the fourth plenary session, French Minister of Defence Jean-Yves Le Drian said that for him the question of security in the Asia-Pacific was not a theoretical issue, but a concrete concern: 85% of France’s EEZ of 11m square kilometres was in the Indian and Pacific oceans; more than 1.6m French citizens lived in that zone; and France maintained a permanent 8,000-strong military presence there. According

to Le Drian, to achieve stability, several basic ingredients were necessary. The first was the rule of law. This was particularly important in relation to the challenges of maritime secu-rity, in not just the South China Sea but also the Arctic, the Mediterranean, and elsewhere. He insisted that France would continue to sail ships and fly aircraft wherever international law allowed and operational needs required. In 2016, he said, the French Navy had already deployed ships through the region three times. The second indispensable ingredient, he said, was dialogue, and he regretted that there had not been substantial progress on the South China Sea Code of Conduct. The third key ingredient was firmness in the face of challenges to the rules-based order, whether these came from terrorism or North Korea. And for France, he said, firmness also involved being a reliable partner in the region. According to Le Drian, ‘in this globalised world, there are no local or regional challenges, only shared challenges of varying intensity’. France intended to contrib-ute to maintaining stability in the Asia-Pacific region, he said. He also emphasised that France was an EU country and that the situation in the South China Sea directly concerned the EU. So he announced a proposal for European navies to coordinate their deployments in order to ensure as regular and as visible a presence as possible in Asian waters.

Vietnam’s Deputy Minister of National Defence, Senior Lieutenant General Nguyen Chi Vinh, emphasised the growing weight of the Asia-Pacific as a driver of economic progress,

and the leading role of ASEAN in the emerging regional security architecture. But lately, he said, there had been new sources of complexity such as terrorism, nuclear proliferation, and mari-time border disputes. In his view, the worsening security environment was rooted in clashing interests, added to which had been a mismatch between actions and words, and what he called the practice of double-standards and the pur-suit of narrow self-interest by some countries. If unaddressed, he said, these phenomena would erode peace and stability, fuel confrontation, and lead to armed conflict. According to Vinh, underlying this worsening trend was a differ-ence of perception of what constituted common interests, against a backdrop of weak institu-tions and enforcement measures. He called for a better, more holistic answer. It was vital for states to cooperate through multilateral insti-tutions, with the utmost importance placed on regional organisations such as ASEAN. Vinh said the Shangri-La Dialogue was a testament to efforts to rationalise competition, and to foster cooperation intended to settle differences peace-fully. With regard to the South China Sea, Vinh highlighted what he called ‘unilateralism’ and ‘coercion’, which risked responses from both within and outside the region. If not addressed properly, this would lead to arms races, rivalry, and unpredictable and disastrous consequences, he said. Vietnam, however, was determined to safeguard national sovereignty first and fore-most by peaceful means, and would try also to have constructive dialogue in accordance with international law.

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Dr Ng Eng Hen, Minister for Defence, Singapore; Dr Tony Tan Yeng Kam, President of Singapore; François Heisbourg, Chair of the IISS Council; and Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS, at the Saturday evening reception at the Istana

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PLA delegation leader Admiral Sun Jianguo said the world was undergoing historic changes, with multi-polarisation and globali-sation gaining momentum. In the Asia-Pacific region, he said, a multi-faceted, multi-layered and comprehensive regional cooperation framework had been formed. He argued that Asia-Pacific countries faced common security challenges and opportunities, that the security environment was stable in general, but also that military alliances and deployments pre-sented security risks to the region. Asia-Pacific countries represented a community of shared destiny, he said. To promote common devel-opment, China had put forward the ‘One Belt, One Road’ development initiative and set up the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Silk Road fund.

To safeguard security, China advocated a new security outlook featuring inclusive, shared and ‘win-win’ security cooperation. Sun said that Chinese President Xi Jinping had proposed that the Asia-Pacific should build a security governance model that suited the region’s char-acteristics. The Chinese armed forces, Sun said, were committed to world peace and regional stability, pointing out that China was the largest contributor of UN peacekeepers among perma-nent Security Council members. Since December 2008, he said, Chinese naval task forces had protected over 6,100 ships in the Gulf of Aden, half of them foreign. The Chinese military, he added, was currently undergoing ‘holistic and revolutionary transformation’, including a cut of 300,000 in personnel strength.

To underscore its cooperative approach, Sun said, China was committed to building a ‘new type’ of military relationship with the US, fea-turing mutual trust. Military relationships with Russia were maintained at a high level; China and Pakistan were enhancing their counter-terrorism cooperation; China–India relations were entering a new phase; and China–Japan military relations were being restored. In deal-ing with regional hot-spots, relevant parties should – as Sun put it – ‘stay calm and ease ten-sions through confidence-building measures’. He added that China had always insisted on denuclearising the Korean Peninsula and solv-ing the issue through dialogue. But he said it opposed US deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile-defence system to South Korea, because this undermined regional stability.

On the South China Sea, Sun said that China and ASEAN were capable of preserving peace and stability through cooperation. The issue, he said, had become overheated because of provocations by certain countries for their own ‘selfish’ interests. The arbitration case initiated by the Philippines under the guise of international law, he argued, denied China’s territorial sover-eignty and maritime rights and interests, and was designed to cover up the Philippines’ illegal occu-pation of certain reefs. The arbitration was not applicable and sovereignty issues were beyond the scope of UNCLOS, he said. The Philippines had breached its bilateral agreement with China and he repeated that China would not recognise or honour any award by the Permanent Court

of Arbitration. ‘This is not a violation of interna-tional law’, Sun argued: ‘On the contrary, it is the proper exercise of the rights entitled by interna-tional law’. He also claimed that ‘some countries’ implemented international law only when con-venient, for example on freedom of navigation, while supporting countries confronting China. Pointedly, Sun declared ‘We do not make trou-ble, but we have no fear of trouble’.

Pursuing Common Security ObjectivesOpening the fifth plenary session, Canadian Minister of National Defence Harjit Singh Sajjan said that relationships based on princi-ples served not only the interests of Canada but those of the entire world. He stressed that Canada was very much a Pacific nation, both in terms of its geography and the make-up of its people. This was the rationale for Canada’s commitment to increasing its engagement in the Asia-Pacific region. In the last several years, Canada had contributed to disaster-relief opera-tions in the Asia-Pacific, notably after Typhoon Haiyan in 2013 and the earthquakes in Nepal in 2015. Since 1965, more than 2,500 participants from the region had received training under the Canadian Armed Forces’ Military Training and Cooperation Programme. Sajjan said disputing parties in the region must resolve their conflicts peacefully and in accordance with international law.

Canada strongly condemned the recent nuclear and ballistic-missile tests conducted by North Korea. He urged that country to honour its international obligations. The minister noted

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Senior Lieutenant General Nguyen Chi Vinh, Deputy Minister of National Defense, Vietnam

Admiral Sun Jianguo, Deputy Chief, Joint Staff Department, Central Military Commission, China

Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister of Defence, France

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that in the fight against global terrorism, con-ventional counter-insurgency methods would not work against groups such as ISIS. As part of Canada’s fight against the group, the coun-try had tripled its trainers and doubled its intelligence capabilities in Iraq. Sajjan said that Canada had embarked on a long-term, multi-bil-lion dollar initiative to renew its navy. Ottawa’s strategy was to build and maintain an ‘effective fleet’ to ensure the maritime security of Canada’s coasts. He added that Canada was proud of its involvement in the ASEAN Regional Forum and the Western Pacific Naval Symposium; Ottawa stood ready to contribute to emerging groupings such as the East Asia Summit and the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus.

Anatoly Antonov, Russia’s Deputy Minister of Defence, noted that the Asia-Pacific had become the driving force of global economic development. However, the region still faced long-standing challenges such as the prolifera-tion of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery, territorial disputes, organised crime, piracy, arms-smuggling, drugs-traffick-ing and cyber crime. The arms race in Asia was also a particular concern.

Antonov noted that the global fight against terrorism was top of the agenda at the Fifth Moscow Conference on International Security in April. He stressed that it was high time to ‘stop playing with terrorists.’ The international community should unite in the fight against terrorism. Antonov said that Russia shared the concerns of Asia-Pacific countries over the

threat posed by returning terrorist fighters. Russia would work with Asia-Pacific coun-tries to implement measures to address the challenge. Antonov said that Russia’s air and sea-based strikes against ISIS, Jabhat al-Nusra ‘and other terrorist groups’ in Syria had been ‘accurate, powerful and effective’. Syria’s army, with Russia’s assistance, had ‘liberated’ over 500 towns. He lauded the February 2016 cessation of hostilities agreement.

Meanwhile, according to Antonov, Russia had ‘serious concerns’ about developments on the Korean Peninsula and was fully com-mitted to the denuclearisation of the DPRK. However, Moscow found it ‘absolutely unac-ceptable’ that ‘some countries’ were, he said, using the ‘pretext’ of the DPRK’s nuclear and missile programme to change the regional mili-tary–political balance. Specifically, he referred to the ‘new segment’ of the American global missile-defence system: while South Korea had a right to cooperate with the US on anti-missile systems, THAAD should not be allowed to undercut strategic stability.

Dr Ng Eng Hen, Singapore’s Minister for Defence, highlighted how the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue had grown in numbers and stature in its 15 years. Ng noted that the inaugural Keynote Address by Lee Kuan Yew at the first IISS Shangri-La Dialogue still has resonance today. In 2002, Lee highlighted two security challenges that would still confront the Asia-Pacific in the years to come – global terrorism and the evolu-tion of the Sino-American relationship. Ng said

that earlier festering territorial disputes in the Asia-Pacific have provided the stage on which the strategic rivalry between the US and China is being played out. Echoing Lee’s remarks, Ng said that the Sino-American contest would set new rules that would govern inter-state and geopolitics in Asia for decades to come. Ng emphasised the existential threat from global terrorism, with ISIS having replaced Al-Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiyah. Compared to 2002, how-ever, recent attacks or fouled attempts in the region are consequences of deeper and stronger undercurrents. ISIS has already recruited more sympathisers in ASEAN than Al-Qaeda did over the last decade. More than 1000 Southeast Asian fighters are now in Iraq and Syria. In this con-text, Ng lauded regional attempts to counter the terrorist threat. A recent proposal by Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines to implement patrols in the Sulu Sea would be useful in deal-ing with maritime terrorism and smuggling. The ADMM-Plus countries have also conducted a joint counterterrorism exercise.

In his closing remarks following the fifth and final plenary session, Chipman noted that the 15th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue had involved a record 602 delegates. He said that the IISS, in partnership with Singapore’s Ministry of Defence, would ‘work exhaustively’ to ensure that the Shangri-La Dialogue remained ‘the premier intergovernmental forum for the dis-cussion of Asia-Pacific security’.

The 16th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue will be held in Singapore from 2–4 June 2017.

Harjit Singh Sajjan, Minister of National Defence, Canada

Anatoly Antonov, Deputy Minister of Defence, Russia Dr Ng Eng Hen, Minister for Defence, Singapore

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Special Session 1: CONTAINING THE NORTH KOREAN THREAT

According to Japan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Shinsuke Sugiyama, North Korea’s increasing bellicosity and resort to nuclear and missile tests had animated a new intensity in practical and policy coordination between the US and its allies, the ROK and Japan. But this had not yielded notable effects on Pyongyang’s wors-ening behaviour. China’s role was important but ambiguous. Under these circumstances, there was little hope for any transformation of the situation. Yoon Soon Gu, Director-General of the International Policy Bureau of South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense, warned against Pyongyang’s episodic but, he felt, insincere calls for talks. They were intended simply to relax pressure on the North Korean regime, whereas the task should be to heighten the pain of sanctions in order to impose a higher price for misbehaviour and provoca-tion.

Colonel Lu Yin of China’s National Defense University expressed a different view: there was little evidence that sanctions would alter North Korea’s calculus for the

better, and negotiations – however vexatious – provided the only viable route to a modi-cum of stability on the Korean Peninsula. Aidan Foster-Carter from Leeds University pointed to the divergent assessments of China and Russia on the one hand, and those of Japan, the US and the ROK on the other, about the balance of risks to be borne and the threats to be managed. As a matter of diplo-matic life, therefore, and as a requirement of an effective long-term strategy, both stick and

carrot would need to be held in balance when addressing Pyongyang. Subsequent discus-sion in the session revealed the often fraught dilemmas being arbitrated in various capitals on the way to proceed within established political and diplomatic tolerances. How, for example, could the US fashion a desirable strategy to in some way freeze North Korea’s nuclear capabilities without, in appear-ance or actuality, extending recognition of Pyongyang’s nuclear status?

Sculpture in Pyongyang, North Korea (Flickr/Stefan Krasowski)

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUENORTH KOREANON-PROLIFERATION

Given the subject matter, it was to be hoped the special session on trying to square the circle of new defence technologies and con-strained funding would prove insightful and lively. The speakers more than rose to the challenge. Philippe Errera from France’s defence ministry summed up the perennial challenge facing all those in the defence com-munity thus: ‘There are things we will never see in our lifetime: a sufficient defence budget and a cure for the common cold’. Singapore’s Chief of Defence Force, Major General Perry Lim, said that irrespective of the benefit that the nation’s military had gained from ‘steady and constant investment’, he expected defence expenditure would ‘come under pressure’ as competition from other sectors for govern-ment funds grew in the future. The need to accommodate the cost of equipment moderni-sation while funding immediate operational demands would, in his view, compound the challenge. Lim cautioned there was ‘no silver bullet’ in relieving budgetary pressure or the demands of re-equipment, but suggested that

‘upgrading as much as possible’ was one pal-liative option.

China’s military reform process, initiated in 2015, was ‘a direct response to the challenges facing the military establishment’, Major General (Retd) Gong Xianfu, Vice-Chairman of the China Institute for International Strategic Studies, told delegates.

Complementing Lim’s advocacy of upgrades, Marillyn Hewson, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Lockheed Martin, suggested that industry

could offer flexibility, platform versatility and interoperability as tools for addressing the demands of capability development and funding constraints. With regard to platform versatility, Hewson used the company’s C-130 Hercules aircraft as an example. Originally designed as a tactical airlifter, the aircraft has now been in service for 60 years in some 70 variants for diverse roles. Hewson and Errera also emphasised the value of defence coop-eration at both the industrial and government levels.

Special Session 2: MILITARY CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT: NEW TECHNOLOGIES, LIMITED BUDGETS AND HARD CHOICES

Royal Australian Air Force F-35A Lightning II (USAF/Staci Miller)

DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY

10 | JULY 2015 IISS NEWS

The session provided a clear and collec-tive exposition of the short-, medium- and long-term security challenges arising from irregular mass migration. With an estimated 60 million displaced persons, the world is currently undergoing the largest displace-ment of people since the Second World War. Panellists described the broad geopolitical ramifications in terms of: the root causes of migration flows; the strains migration places on political and social cohesion in transit

and destination countries; the transnational organised criminal networks that profit from people-trafficking; and linkages with the movement of foreign fighters, which compli-cate national responses.

Discussions focused on the extent to which irregular migration should be framed in security or humanitarian terms, and whether policy responses should, in the words of China’s Senior Colonel Xu Qiyu, ‘be reactive or proactive’. Geography played a major role in

shaping policy responses. Indonesia, due to its prox-imity to mainland Southeast Asia, had long served as a transit country for irregular migrants arriving by sea. By contrast, Australia had capitalised on its relative geographic isolation with a series of controversial poli-cies – including the use of offshore processing centres

– that had since halted the flow of irregular migrants arriving by sea. Panellists typified irregular migration as an industry of organised criminal trafficking networks, and advocated international law-enforcement efforts to break this business model. However, it remained to be seen how sustainable such an approach would be against a problem that was largely driven by pressures beyond the reach of bor-der-control and law-enforcement agencies.

Other panellists stressed that a refugee policy that worked in the long-term would not just make destination countries less acces-sible, but would also address the root causes of migrant flows. The EU had to take stock of the fact that human displacement usually resulted from conflict or poor governance. China had become more actively engaged in conflict countries through peacekeeping engagements. All agreed that a combination of immediate security responses would need to be reinforced by longer-term steps to manage migration in all its aspects.Refugee camp in Rakhine State, Myanmar (UK FCO)

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

Special Session 3: THE SECURITY CHALLENGES OF IRREGULAR MIGRATION

The fourth special session focused on the challenges both of building a better shared understanding of the threat from jihadi ter-rorism in Asia and strengthening effective intra-state cooperation to combat it. There was much discussion of the distinctive characteristics of regional jihadi and other radical extremist movements. Some were of long standing – Abu Sayyaf in the Philippines or Jemaah Islamiyah in Indonesia, for example. It was important to try to distinguish between criminality disguised as a sacralised ideol-ogy and the sort of revolutionary insurgent violence associated with groups of Middle Eastern origin such as Al-Qaeda or ISIS. This in turn could lead to a more effective diagnosis of the remedies. This was not straightforward. The sort of communal and sectarian divisions characteristic of Middle East conflicts were generally not present in Southeast Asia. And ISIS had not yet proclaimed a wilayah (prov-ince) in the region yet. But the ideological connections were becoming more complex, particularly through social media and secure online communications.

Significant numbers of Malaysians and Indonesians were travelling to fight in Syria with ISIS-affiliated groups. Governments were still not as effective as they should be against facilita-tion networks. Ideology itself could give a new impetus to groups such as Abu Sayyaf, whose strength had been degraded recently. Returnees would also have an energising effect. And ISIS would be looking for new areas into which to expand as it lost territory and personnel in its Middle East and North African heartlands.

Delegates heard that regional states had to guard against over-militarising their response. There had been progress on building struc-tures for greater regional intelligence-sharing and counterterrorism cooperation, with the creation of a Southeast Asian counterterrorism centre in Kuala Lumpur and progress with de-radicalisation programmes, digital mes-saging and new legal frameworks. But more

needed to be done in all these areas. Terrorism was a threat vector: the underlying challenge was essentially about governance, the integ-rity of state institutions and education. In the Middle East heartland, stabilisation and recon-struction lagged badly. And the ideological deformations that led to radicalisation con-tinued to feed on communal grievances. The Islamic Alliance against Terrorism launched in Riyadh, in which Malaysia was already playing a role, was a recognition that this was an issue that crossed national and regional boundaries and would require a more struc-tured, long-term global response.

Indonesian armoured vehicles following the bombing in Jakarta, January 2016 (Flickr/Tommy Wahyu Utomo)

Special Session 4: ENHANCING COOPERATION AGAINST JIHADI TERRORISM IN ASIA

REFUGEES HUMAN RIGHTS TERRORISM AND SECURITYISLAMIC STATE

IISS NEWS JULY 2015 | 11

Panellists highlighted national, bilateral and multilateral policy responses designed to improve cyber security. The issue was, as former US National Intelligence Officer for Cyber Issues Sean Kanuck observed, part of every security discussion at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue. And with ‘all states’, according to panellist David Koh from Singapore’s Cyber Security Agency, ‘linked by supra-national critical information infrastructures’, there was an ‘urgent need’, Koh said, to work to develop platforms where cyber challenges, and ‘rules of the road’, could be discussed.

Panellists high-lighted aspects of their countries’ responses designed both to enable greater, and safer, access to cyberspace and also to tackle growing cyber threats on national and multilateral levels. Singapore was work-ing on a national cyber strategy, while India

had established a new post of cyber-security coordinator. Meanwhile China was keen, said Qing Yu from its Cyberspace Administration, to secure the rights of its ‘netizens’, and was willing to fund greater global access to the internet. However, cyber sovereignty was important. China was drafting an information security law.

On the basis of his own experience, Kanuck discussed cyber-threat analysis. Many recent attacks were on the private sector. Non-lethal and ‘reversible’ actions were becoming more appealing and some actors now sought to

intervene, and coerce behaviour, at a level below the threshold of armed conflict. Kanuck considered common interests and cyber weap-ons. The dual-use nature of information and communications technologies, he said, made it nearly impossible to identify cyber weap-ons. It was better instead to consider their effects on civilians. This could then lead to a common interest in ‘Geneva law’ – protecting civilians and civilian infrastructure rather than looking to prohibit the proliferation or use of these capabilities. Questions followed on cyber sovereignty and whether cyberspace was ‘bor-derless’; proportionality in cyber responses; and cyber relations between the US and China, and their 2015 bilateral agreement.

Asked about how cooperation could improve, Kanuck said there was a need first to find strategic common ground. Rules associ-ated with outer space, he said, grew because during the Cold War states with a space-launch capability saw a strategic benefit in satellite overflight: ‘start with common strategic inter-est, and you might find common ground for future laws or norms.’

With developments in the South China Sea already having been raised as part of discus-sions in all three of the preceding plenary sessions, this session offered delegates a chance to consider in more detail recent events in the South China Sea. It also took up the challenge of how to encourage or even insti-tutionalise the strategic restraint that would be required in order to prevent tensions there from further escalating.

Speakers in the session considered the various types of disputes provoking tensions in the South China Sea: disputes over sovereignty of the land features them-selves, over the extent of the maritime zones generated by individ-ual land features, and over what activities,

in particular military activities, were permit-ted under UNCLOS within these zones. The ongoing development, construction and mili-tarisation of certain land features subject to sovereignty disputes within the South China Sea was noted with concern by delegates.

Presentations were made on their respec-tive national approaches by speakers from Vietnam and China. A speaker from the EU outlined its interests and recent experiences

with maritime dispute settlement, while the speaker from Singapore offered useful insights into the legal complexities of UNLCOS, as well as the logic behind UN freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea. All dele-gates were clear that governments would need to manage tensions actively, with one del-egate suggesting that the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea, signed in 2014, could help-fully be extended to cover coast guards as well as navies.

The significance of the forthcoming ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration on the case brought to it by the Philippines against China’s maritime claims was also considered, along with likely reactions by key protago-nists, including the potential for a renewed round of bilateral negotiations. One delegate noted that if maritime claims could be staked on the basis of historical rights, then India could claim a ‘50-dash line’ inherited from the British Empire stretching from the Red Sea to the Strait of Malacca.

Workers testing computer hard drives in a factory in China (Robert Scoble)

USS John C. Stennis (US Navy/Kenneth Rodriguez Santiago)

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUEINTERNATIONAL LAW

Special Session 6: IDENTIFYING COMMON SECURITY INTERESTS IN THE CYBER-DOMAIN

Special Session 5: MANAGING SOUTH CHINA SEA TENSIONS

SOUTH CHINA SEAASIA-PACIFICCYBER SECURITY

12 | JULY 2015 IISS NEWS

Launch of the Young Leaders’ Programme

FOREIGN POLICY

Debrief on IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2016

On 8 June, Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS–Asia, provided a debrief of the 15th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual meeting of Asia-Pacific defence ministers and Asia’s premier defence summit. He considered the most prevalent themes of this year’s Dialogue, highlighting the impor-tant focus on China’s behaviour in the South China Sea, which has caused

much concern in the region and internationally. A second major theme, Huxley explained, was the nature of the regional security order, in terms of the structure of relations among regional states, as well as with the region’s pre-eminent strategic actor, the United States. Huxley also mentioned a sig-nificant subsidiary focus on Korean Peninsula security, and the emphasis placed by some Southeast Asian ministers on the challenges of rising jihadi terrorism, before responding to a range of questions posed by IISS members. The webinar was chaired by Adam Ward, Director of Studies at the IISS.

Watch the webinar.

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme

The 15th anniversary of the IISS Shangri-la Dialogue witnessed the launch of a groundbreaking new IISS initiative, the Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme (SEAYLP). With the generous support of the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the US Embassy and British High Commission in Singapore, the Norwegian Embassy in Jakarta and OUE Limited, 42 young leaders from ten Southeast Asian countries were invited to the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue this year. Highlights of the programme’s launch included a SEAYLP lunch attended by distinguished speakers including Singapore’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Dr Vivian Balakrishnan and Commander of US Pacific Command Admiral Harry Harris, as well as introductions to US Secretary of Defense Dr Ashton Carter and British Defence Secretary Michael Fallon. The programme has been integrated into the summit agenda and represents an important new element of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue.

The SEAYLP brings younger Southeast Asian thinkers into the main-stream of the regional strategic debate by inviting them to be delegates at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue. The aim of the programme is to engage young people from business, government, law, journalism and academic

backgrounds in a high-level debate on the complex and rapidly evolving strategic challenges faced by Southeast Asia and the wider Asia-Pacific region. The young delegates play a full part in the Dialogue’s plenary and special sessions, and join dinners and other social events which pro-vide important opportunities for informal exchanges with global decision makers. The programme is intended to strengthen the contribution of a younger generation of Southeast Asian strategists to the formulation of effective security policy in their countries and the Asia-Pacific region.

Read more about the SEAYLP.

Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2016: Key Developments and Trends

On 3 June, shortly before the 15th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue commenced, Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS–Asia, chaired a press launch of the Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2016 at the Shangri-La Hotel in Singapore. This Strategic Dossier, now the third in a series that was first published in 2014, forms part of the Institute’s programme of publications accompanying the Shangri-La Dialogue, which each year also includes two Adelphi books on Asian security themes. Joining Huxley on the panel for the launch was co-editor and Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security Dr William Choong, IISS Director of Studies Adam Ward, and con-tributing authors Nick Childs, Aidan Foster-Carter and Dr Carlyle Thayer.

In his introductory comments, Huxley outlined the main findings of the Regional Security Assessment’s 13 chapters, which covered key topics rang-

ing from ‘Evolving American Views of China’ and ‘India and Asia-Pacific Security’ to ‘The Militarisation of the South China Sea’, ‘North Korea’s Threat to Regional Security’ and ‘The Islamic State and Southeast Asia’. Huxley emphasised that these themes had all emerged from recent Shangri-La Dialogues and IISS Fullerton Forum meetings. The content of the volume, he said, high-lighted the fact that there remained substantial areas where regional states could find common ground for security collaboration. There was a wide range of questions from the audience, which was largely composed of press and other delegates participating in the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue.

Watch the launch.

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE ASIA-PACIFIC DEFENCE POLICY

IISS NEWS JULY 2015 | 13

EXPERTS ASIA-PACIFIC SECURITY

ASEAN Regional Forum Disaster Relief Exercise 2013, Cha-Am, Thailand, May 2013 (최광모)

Liu Xiaoming, Chinese Ambassador to the United Kingdom

A Road Map to Strategic Relevance: EU Security Policy Options in Southeast Asia

In June 2016 the IISS published a report entitled A Road Map to Strategic Relevance: EU Security-Policy Options in Southeast Asia, written by IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for Geopolitics and Strategy Sarah Raine. The report, sponsored by the German foreign office, considers how the EU and its member states might be able to reap more strategic effect from the increased attention they have recently been paying to Southeast Asia, in particular with regard to the region’s security affairs. In the report, a strat-egy was recommended based around the mantra of ‘target, promote and sustain’. Whilst some of the limitations surrounding EU engagement in defence and security policy were briefly discussed, the report also offered new policy proposals designed to develop an EU track record of substan-tive engagement in Southeast Asian security affairs.

The report was launched by Sarah Raine and IISS Director of Studies Adam Ward at an event in Brussels on 30 May 2016, hosted by the EU

External Action Service (EEAS). Deputy Secretary General of the EEAS, Helga Schmid, and German State Secretary Markus Ederer offered com-mentary on the report at this event. An IISS–Asia launch also took place on 3 June, shortly before the opening of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, with comments on this occasion being offered by the Asia-Pacific Director of the German foreign office Norbert Riedel and Germany’s Ambassador to Singapore Michael Witter.

Watch author Sarah Raine discuss the report’s findings.

Perspectives on the South China Sea

On 23 May, Liu Xiaoming, Chinese Ambassador to the United Kingdom, spoke at Arundel House about China’s position on the South China Sea. The Permanent Court of Arbitration is expected to release its ruling on the case that the Philippines brought against China on 12 July, and as such the event formed a timely opportunity for Liu to explain China’s perspective on the ongoing dispute.

Liu’s speech recounted the historical basis underpinning China’s island and maritime claims in the South China Sea. According to China, the pres-ent dispute started in the 1970s, as countries in the region began pursuing access to natural resources. The ambassador confirmed that China would not accept any ruling made by the arbitration panel, a position that the country has held since the Philippines initiated the process. China posits that the arbitration process was illegally convened and maintains that

regional disputes should be solved by bilateral negotiations. The discus-sion was chaired by Nigel Inkster, Director of Future Conflict and Cyber Security at the IISS.

Watch the event.

Post-Election Myanmar: Context, Opportunities and Challenges for Business

Vicky Bowman, former UK Ambassador to Myanmar (2003–06) and the Director of the Myanmar Centre for Responsible Business, spoke at Arundel House on the opportunities and challenges for business following the first democratic transfer of power in Myanmar since 1960. The country would be one of the fastest-growing economies globally in 2016 – albeit starting from a low base. The government – led by State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi – had yet to articulate fully its economic agenda after 100

days in office, but areas requiring urgent policy attention included road and energy infrastructure, land tenure reform, urban planning, as well as building a reliable banking industry to sustain and grow agricultural output – still the agrarian country’s largest sector.

Suu Kyi would have unprecedented access to overseas development aid and investment for these priority areas. However, balancing the interests of ASEAN, China, Japan and the West would be the challenge. One case in point would be the fate of the suspended Mytisone Dam project – a US$3.6 billion investment led by the China Power Investment Corporation. Above all, clear policy and regulatory frameworks from a still-inexperienced government would decide how and to what extent business activity could be made to work for the long-term interests of the country. The event was chaired by Hervé Lemahieu, Research Associate for Political Economy and Security.

EUROPEAN UNIONGLOBAL POLITICSCHINA

14 | JULY 2015 IISS NEWS

Philip Barton, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow and Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia

SOUTH ASIA EXPERTS

South Asia’s Emerging Economic and Security Relations with Saudi Arabia, the Gulf and Iran

Both India and Pakistan are deepening and diversifying their ties in the Gulf region amidst competitive bilateral relations, while balancing their ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran, noted IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia, Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, and IISS Consulting Senior Fellow and former British High Commissioner to Pakistan, Philip Barton, at an IISS corporate members’ meeting on 28 June.

With Pakistan seeking a leadership role in the Islamic world, Saudi Arabia remains its closest Gulf ally, where more than 1,000 Pakistani military personnel are engaged in training. India’s new counterterrorism cooperation pledges with the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and

Qatar seek to target Pakistan. India’s May 2016 agreement with Iran and Afghanistan on the Iranian port of Chabahar seeks to bypass Pakistan’s denial (to India) of the land route access to Afghanistan and counter China’s construction of port facilities at Gwadar, lying 70 nautical miles eastward.

Read more about the event.

Pakistan: A Personal PerspectiveDuring an address at Arundel House on 15 June, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow and former British High Commissioner to Pakistan (2014–16), Philip Barton explained that 2015 had been the best year for Pakistan in a long time. Democracy was deepening, the security situation was improv-ing and the economy was growing. This good news was Pakistan’s to tell, said Barton, to change outdated perceptions of its future.

Barton stated that Pakistani democracy had been strengthened by the political crisis of 2014; nonetheless, he conceded there were improve-ments to be made before the 2018 elections. Goodwill persisted between Pakistan and both Iran and Afghanistan, whilst Pakistan and India both wanted to find a way back into dialogue. Relations with the US were likely to improve and China was committed to Pakistan’s stability through the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor. Barton explained that the country had an opportunity to start tackling its four biggest, interlinked long-term challenges: demographics; climate change; economic development; and

the devolution of power to the provincial level. Not doing so would risk holding Pakistan back in the future. The meeting was chaired by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia.

Listen to the event.

The Nuclear Suppliers Group Membership Issue and Nuclear Diplomacy: A Pakistani Perspective

It is in the interests of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), as much as anyone concerned about the strategic stability of South Asia, to adopt an objective and non-discriminatory criteria-based approach while con-sidering applications for membership of the NSG – a group of advanced countries aiming to ensure that trade in nuclear technology for peaceful purposes does not lead to nuclear-weapons proliferation. This was a key policy message at a meeting convened by the IISS at Arundel House on 16 June with Group Captain Waseem Qutab, Visiting Research Fellow for South Asia (Strategic Affairs) and Senior Deputy Director at Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division. In remarks inaugurating his Visiting Fellowship

at the IISS, Group Captain Qutab suggested that criteria-based admission of India and Pakistan into the NSG would provide a way of universalis-ing the non-proliferation regime to de facto nuclear-weapons states. For Qutab, the NSG appeared to be undergoing a ‘rethink’. The meeting was chaired by Antoine Levesques, IISS Research Associate for South Asia.

Read more about the event.

PAKISTAN INDIA

Chashma Nuclear Power Plant (Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission)

Pakistan Air Force F-16s (USAF/Daniel Phelps)

GULF STATESNUCLEAR

IISS NEWS JULY 2015 | 15

The Human and Socio-economic Cost of Conflict

On 13 June, Senior Fellow for Security and Development Virginia Comolli hosted a discussion meeting at Arundel House with Seema Biswas, General Surgeon at the Israeli Ziv Medical Centre and Editor-in-Chief at BMJ Case Reports, and Dr Anke Hoeffler, Research Officer at the Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) at the University of Oxford.

The panel aimed to shed light on aspects of conflict that are less com-monly discussed, in particular the impact on health and the economy. Conflict was described as a key determinant of health owing to the loss of human rights, the breaches of medical neutrality and the constant expo-sure to life-threatening situations that it brought about. Similarly, it was equated to ‘economic suicide’: studies indicated that, on average, it took 21 years after the end of a conflict for the economy to be restored to the same

level registered at the outset of the war. These reflections, coupled with the recognition that 40% of conflicts never truly end, made for a sombre exchange.

Listen to the event.

The Aftermath of Impeachment in Brazil: Changes amid Political Crisis and the Fight against Corruption

After more than 20 years of stability, Brazilian politics quickly stumbled into a crisis after congress voted in May to start impeachment proce-dures against President Dilma Rousseff. On 19 May, during the first week of the interim government, IISS Research Associate for Security and Development Antônio Sampaio presented in a webinar the significant shifts in policy priorities and Brazil’s progress in fighting corruption – one of the main drivers of the impeachment process.

After outlining how corruption had been a longstanding feature of Brazilian politics, Sampaio emphasised that the current anti-corruption investigation, nicknamed Operation Car Wash (Lava Jato), was the larg-est in the country’s history and had uncovered a widespread bribery scheme functioning at the highest levels of the national leadership and

Protestors in São Paulo, March 2016 (Marcelo Valente)

Medical staff at a hospital in Aleppo, Syria (YouTube)

SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENTEXPERTS

of Petrobras, the state oil company. He laid out the significant challenges facing the interim president, Michel Temer: first among them was to re-establish popular trust in the national political system while attempting to reverse an economic downturn. The webinar was chaired by Virginia Comolli, Research Fellow for Security and Development at the IISS.

Watch the webinar.

DEVELOPMENT BRAZIL EMERGING NATIONS

New Adelphi BookAdelphi 459Business and Conflict in Fragile StatesAchim Wennmann and Brian GansonLarge-scale investments in fragile states – in Latin America, Africa, the former Soviet Union and Asia – become magnets for conflict, which undermines business, development and security. International policy responds with regulation, state-building and institutional reform, with poor and often perverse results. Caught up in old ways of thinking about conflict and fragility, and an age-old fight over whether multinational

corporations are good or bad for peaceful devel-opment, it leaves business-related conflicts in fragile states to multiply and fester. Surveying a new strategic landscape of business and conflict, Brian Ganson and Achim Wennmann conclude that neither company shareholders nor advo-cates for peaceful development need, or should, accept the growing cost of business-related conflict in fragile states. Drawing on decades of experience from mainstream conflict-prevention and violence-reduction efforts, as well as prom-ising company practice, they show that even acute conflict is manageable when dealt with pragmatically, locally and on its own terms.

The analysis and conclusions of this Adelphi book will interest policy-makers, business leaders and com-munity advocates alike – all those hoping to mitigate today’s conflicts while helping to reduce fragil-ity and build a firmer foundation for inclusive development.

PUBLICATIONS

16 | JULY 2015 IISS NEWS

IISS–AMERICAS EXPERTSISRAEL & PALESTINEAEROSPACE UNITED STATES

Defence Budgeting and National Security: A Conversation with Secretary of the Air Force Deborah Lee James

On 13 June, IISS–Americas hosted Secretary of the Air Force Deborah Lee James as part of its Policy Makers Series. Secretary James has served as the 23rd Secretary of the Air Force since 2013, overseeing the affairs of the Department of the Air Force and its annual budget. This event, chaired by IISS–Americas Executive Director Mark Fitzpatrick, examined the major threats facing the United States, including those from Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and the Islamic State, as well as the resources needed for the Air Force to confront these challenges. Secretary James pointed out that the US Air Force was at its smallest size since its founding as a separate force, and its fleet of planes was on average 28 years old. She discussed her commitment to reversing this trend and working to ensure the Air Force had the resources to modernise and was ready to manage increasing global insecurity. She also spoke passionately about her priority of taking care of the 660,000 people in the Air Force, including protecting them from sexual harassment.

Watch the video.

The Inaugural IISS Robert F . Ellsworth Lecture

IISS–Americas hosted the inaugural Robert F. Ellsworth Lecture on 9 May, featuring Admiral William J. Fallon (Retd). Fallon’s remarks focused on American national security and the related political process. Examining global concerns regarding Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and the Islamic State, he noted that while Russia, China, and Iran had each been ‘a world power at one or more times in its history’, only China had the attributes to regain that status. Thus, he said it was important for the US to find agree-ment with China on areas of mutual interest. In addressing the issue of terrorism, Admiral Fallon expressed concern with ‘domestic behavioural weakness’. He argued that America needed ‘good governing leadership, [and must be] able to craft, articulate and enact broad, long term politi-

cal, economic, security and social policies’. If the US could achieve this, he opined, it would be more effective in addressing international security challenges.

Read Admiral Fallon’s speech.

Design concept of B-21 long-range strike bomber (USAF)

Tianjin, China (Yang Aijun/World Bank)

CHINA

Opening up to Cuba: Lessons from Canada

On 24 May, the Washington DC office officially launched its rebranding as IISS–Americas. Since its inception in 2001, the Washington office had been known as IISS–US. This event, chaired by Executive Director of IISS–Americas Mark Fitzpatrick, featured Mark Entwistle, former Ambassador of Canada to Cuba and current Managing Director of Acasta Capital. On 17 December, 2014, the United States and Cuba began normalising rela-tions, sparking renewed interest among Americans in engaging with Cuba. Ambassador Entwistle described Cuba as a unique society, rich in human capital with great economic potential. He cautioned Americans, however, not to expect a ‘big bang’ change in the Cuban economy or politics. Moreover, he said the continued US trade embargo was still sig-nificantly limiting the development of relations between the two countries. Entwistle counselled that engagement must be strategic, with a long-term horizon, as the Cuban leadership was impervious to external pressure and would make its assessments and decisions at its own pace. For now, though, Entwistle assessed that the presidents of both the US and Cuba were committed to the continued improvement of relations.

Watch the event.

Cuban President Raúl Castro and US President Barack Obama during the Summit of the Americas in Panama, April 2015 (White House/Pete Souza)

IISS NEWS JULY 2015 | 17

Our Separate Ways: The Struggle for the Future of the US–Israel AllianceOn 14 June and 21 June, IISS–Americas hosted book launches in New York and Washington DC respectively of Our Separate Ways: The Struggle for the Future of the US–Israel Alliance, with authors Dana Allin, Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs at the IISS, and Steven Simon, former Senior Director for Middle Eastern and North African Affairs at the National Security Council. Both launches were chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive Director of IISS–Americas. Allin and Simon dis-cussed how cultural and strategic differences between the US and Israel are driving the countries apart. In order to save the relationship, the authors proposed that the two countries formalise their alliance with a treaty, tied to Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank. Making this trade-off sufficiently attractive would require resourceful diplomacy, they said. In the event that

the relationship did indeed falter, the question arose as to whether Israel would reach out to another country for support and protection, such as Russia. The speculative answer was that an alliance with the US was much more appealing than any other possibility.

Watch the Washington DC launch.

President Obama in Jerusalem, March 2013 (White House/Chuck Kennedy)

IISS–AMERICASEXPERTS CANADACUBA

Chinese military

Adelphi Launch: China’s Cyber Power

Launched at Arundel House on 29 June, China’s Cyber Power, the latest Adelphi book authored by Nigel Inkster, was written during a period in which China’s cyber-espionage activities were under intense international scrutiny, and was published shortly after a new report revealed a drop in China’s cyber intrusions since the latter part of 2015.

Inkster, IISS’s Director of Future Conflict and Cyber Security, explained that China’s rapid evolution as a major global cyber power had to be seen in the wider context of its long struggle to achieve modernity and cultural self-respect. China’s leadership saw cyber capabilities as critical to enabling the next phase of China’s economic and social development, military and intelligence capabilities, and foreign policy. At the same time, they had also invested heavily in capabilities to control online activity, an approach justified under the rubric of cyber sovereignty.

China’s intelligence community had successfully exploited cyber capa-bilities inter alia to conduct industrial espionage that had until recently been a major focus of Western media attention. This activity had declined since the end of 2015 following US threats of legal action against Chinese

companies but had not – and would not – cease. China’s military were pursuing digitalisation as part of extensive military reforms designed to put China on a par with the US.

China had become increasingly extroverted in promoting its own vision of global cyber governance and security, which enjoyed growing traction in the developing world. China’s cyber policies, underpinned by its own values system, amounted to a massive global experiment in which the Western liberal democracies served as the control group. The launch was chaired by Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies.

Watch the launch.

EXPERTS FUTURE CONFLICT AND CYBER SECURITYCYBER SECURITYCHINA

IISS–AmericasThe IISS office in Washington DC, which has been known as IISS–US since its inception in 2001, has been rebranded as IISS–Americas. This reflects the broader responsibilities of the office to represent the Institute and to engage with policymaking communities, organisations and corporations throughout North and South America.

18 | JULY 2015 IISS NEWS

AFGHANISTAN

The Jihadis’ Cyber Capacity and Aspiration

On 15 May, Sir John Jenkins, Executive Director of IISS–Middle East, chaired a lecture delivered by Dr Aaron Brantly, a Cyber Fellow at The United States Military Academy, about the cyber capacity and aspira-tions of jihadis. Brantly discussed the findings of a study of jihadi forums concerned with how chat room participants navigate digital operational security. He highlighted that tools used by some jihadis were ones that were developed with the original intention to safeguard individuals working under the threat of states, to provide added security for their operations. These same tools, often funded in part by the US Government, NGOs, corporations, and others, were expressly being used for illicit pur-poses. The discussion that followed Brantly’s presentation of the paper’s findings included questions concerning the motivations underpinning jihadism, the jihadis’ cyber capability compared to other non-state actors, and ways to counter the jihadi threat.

Drugs and Conflict Prevention in Afghanistan

On 26 May, IISS–Middle East hosted a high-level workshop entitled ‘Drugs and Conflict Prevention in Afghanistan’, organised by the IISS Security and Development Programme. This off-the-record event brought together officials, representatives of international organisations and experts from Afghanistan and other relevant countries to reflect on the UN General Assembly Special Session (UNGASS 2016) deliberations on drugs, and their implications for Afghanistan.

Participants discussed the full impact of the drugs trade on Afghanistan as it pertains to conflict, socio-economic development, public health, gov-ernance and corruption. Other themes included assessing the effectiveness of counter-narcotics initiatives and why they had produced limited results, and how the illicit economy was likely to influence future development plans.

A field in Afghanistan (Dustin D . March/USMC)

Dr Sanjaya Baru, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for India, addresses the forum

IISS–MIDDLE EAST EXPERTS

The Changing Geo-economics of the Gulf and Asia

On 25 May, the IISS Geo-economics and Strategy Programme organised the IISS Bahrain–India Forum in New Delhi, which included two days of panel discussions on the subject of ‘The Changing Geo-economics of the Gulf and Asia’.

The forum was attended by government and business leaders from both Bahrain and India, including Zayed Al Zayani, the Bahraini Minister of Industry, Commerce and Tourism. Representing India were Nirmala Sitharaman, Minister of State for the Ministry of Commerce & Industry and Minister of State for Finance and Corporate Affairs, and Jayant Sinha, Minister of State for Finance.

Participants discussed issues of economic diversification, balancing

local priorities and geo-economic strategies, finding business opportuni-ties despite regional challenges, and achieving sustainable local growth during global economic slowdowns.

CYBER SECURITY GEO-ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY

Survival: Global Politics and StrategyIn the June–July 2016 issue of Survival, Lawrence Freedman, François Heisbourg, Nigel Inkster, Matthew Harries and Erik Jones debate Brexit; Lanxin Xiang and Christian Dargnat analyse Xi Jinping’s dreams of China’s future; Aaron Arnold warns of the costs of financial sanc-tions; Andrea Berger and Denny Roy address the problem

of North Korea; Sarah Percy and Ryan D. Martinson discuss crime and provocation at sea; Brian G. Carlson assesses the prospects for a China–Russia alliance; Pierre Hassner, Russell Crandall and Erik Jones contribute book reviews; and Faisal Hamid explores Bangladesh’s social strife.

PUBLICATIONS

IISS NEWS JULY 2015 | 19

Strategic Nuclear Issues in East Asia: Security, Energy and Fuel Cycle Choices

On 26 April, the Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Programme held the fourth workshop under a MacArthur Foundation-funded project on strengthening cooperation between Chinese and Western policymaking communities on nuclear issues. Held in Beijing and jointly organised with the China Institute for International Studies, the meeting attracted experts from China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the United Kingdom and the United States. Discussion covered a range of topics, including: non-prolif-eration and nuclear security; cyber threats to civil nuclear facilities; nuclear fuel cycle developments in the UK and China, with a focus on reprocess-ing; and broader regional strategic issues, notably security on the Korean Peninsula.

Read the workshop report.

Lessons Learned from the Work of the UN Panel of Experts on Iran

On 22 April, the Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Programme hosted a workshop in collaboration with the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University designed for the former members of the UN Panel of Experts on Iran to share their experiences. As the UN Secretariat takes on the task of monitoring the implementation of UNSCR 2231, the new reso-lution endorsing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and superseding all previous sanctions resolutions on Iran, it will face a number of chal-lenges. Some of these challenges will be unique to the Secretariat’s new mandate but in many areas they will mirror issues faced by the Panel.

Read the workshop report.

US Secretary of State John Kerry shakes hands with Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif (US Department of State)

IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano visits the construction site of the Chinese Centre of Excellence for Nuclear Security, October 2014 (Conleth Brady/IAEA)

Protests against the result of the UK’s EU referendum (Flickr/Alex)

NON-PROLIFERATIONCHINA

Brexit – The Strategic ImplicationsOn 13 June, the IISS convened a panel of experts to discuss the strate-gic implications of Britain’s EU referendum. Chaired by Survival editor Dana Allin, the authors of a recent package of articles on the subject took a decidedly negative view of the outlook should UK voters decide – as they subsequently did decide – to leave the European Union. Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London, warned against the notion that Britain had experienced ‘a moment of greatness before we handed over sovereignty to the European Union’. Subscribers to that notion were ignoring the post-imperial decline and the ‘various humiliations of the 1950s and 1960s’ that encouraged Britain to join the-then Common Market, he said. François Heisbourg, Chairman of the IISS and an adviser to the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, conceded that ‘first-order effects’ on Britain’s security arrangement might be modest, but ‘second-order effects’ could be grave indeed: the enormous encouragement to the development of continental European ‘sovereignist’ movements of the populist right and left, precipitating – in the worst case – a collapsing EU with huge strategic implications for the UK. Nigel Inkster, IISS Director of Future Conflict and Cyber Security, who previously served for 31 years in the British Secret Intelligence Service, stated that the UK

was and would remain an intelligence superpower, whatever the referen-dum outcome. However, he noted that the British intelligence community greatly valued its EU-enabled access to large data sets that were crucial to investigating Islamist terrorism, and that his community was concerned about the inevitable ‘hiatus’ that Brexit would bring about for arrange-ments that ‘would have to be renegotiated on a bilateral basis with 27 other countries.’ Inkster further warned that a referendum decision to leave the EU might be part of a ‘wider strategic unravelling of uncertain duration with consequences that are hard to predict.’

Watch the video.

EUROPEAN STRATEGY

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NON-PROLIFERATION AND NUCLEAR POLICYEXPERTS IRAN