ihs webcast - aftershocks in the supply chain

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April 21, 2011 Aftershocks in the Supply Chain: How to respond to crisis, assess global scenarios, and mitigate risk Welcome to Today’s Webcast

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  • 1. Welcome to Todays WebcastAftershocks in the Supply Chain:How to respond to crisis, assess global scenarios, and mitigate riskApril 21, 2011

2. We want your feedback!Win an iPad2 for completing todays survey At the end of todays webcast Everyone who completes the survey at the conclusion of todays live event will be entered into a drawing to win an iPad2.**Offer valid until April 29, 20112 3. Todays Speakers: Dale Ford Senior Vice President, Market Intelligence IHS iSuppliGlenn BassettVP Strategic Business DevelopmentDesign & Supply Chain SolutionsIHS 3 4. The Japan Earthquake andManaging the Impact on theElectronics Supply ChainIHS iSuppli Analysis and CommentaryDale FordSenior Vice President, Market Intelligence Services 5. The Electronics Supply Chain Very global and interconnectedComponentsElectronics Equipment Semiconductors Data ProcessingMemory, Microcomponents, Logic, PC, Storage, Printer, Monitor, ProjectorMaterials Analog, Discrete, Optical Sensor Wired Communications Silicon Flat Panel Displays Router, Switch, Modem, Metro, Long- Glass LCD, OLED, Plasma, DLP Haul Resins Batteries Wireless Communications Chemicals Rechargeable, Disposable, Fuel CellMobile Phone, Media Tablet, Base Electromechanical Station, WiFi, Bluetooth MetalsPCBs, Connectors, Antennas, Cables Consumer Electronics And more TV, Set-Top Box, Camera, Game, PassivesDVD/Blu-rayCapacitors, Crystals, Filters, Inductors,Resistors Automotive ElectronicsInfotainment, Power Train, Safety, BodyElectronics, Comfort, Security Industrial ElectronicsMedical, Automation, Energy, Mil/Aero,Control Manufacturing & Packaging | Inventory & Shipping Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.5 6. Equipment Production DisruptionJapanese Supplier Share of Data Processing MildSemiconductor Market By Application Market 50% Source IHS iSuppli Wired Communications None 40% Wireless Communications Mild 30% Consumer Electronics Moderate 20% 10% Automotive Electronics Severe 0%OverallAutomotiveElectronicsElectronicsElectronicsData ProcessingConsumerCommunications Communications Industrial Industrial Electronics Market dependentWirelessCopyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.Wired 6 7. Key Components / MaterialsSemiconductor FabsSilicon Wafer Production 31Aizu Wakamatsu, FukushimaA Shin-Etsu Kamisu, Ibaraki ON Semiconductor (Logic) Fujitsu (Analog, Discrete, Memory)B Shin-Etsu Nishigo, Fukushima Texas Instruments (Analog, Optical)2Atsugi, KanagawaC MEMC Utsunomiya, Tochigi6 Mitsumi (Analog, Logic)D SUMCO Yonezawa, Yamagata3Goshogawara, Aomori Renesas (Logic)13 10 94Gunma11Display Manufacturing D ON Semiconductor (Discrete, Logic) Hitachi Displays 1Epicenter Renesas (Analog, Discrete) Panasonic LCDB5Hitachinaka, Ibaraki Tohoku Pioneer Renesas (Logic, Micro, Memory)6Iwate 414 Fukushima Fujitsu (Micro, Memory)Resins, Films, Chemicals,12 C Toshiba (Discrete)Copper Clad Laminate 58 A 7Kofu, Yamanashi 7 Renesas (Analog, Logic, Micro) 2Tokyo 8Miho, Ibaraki Texas Instruments (Analog, Optical)9Miyagi Fujitsu (Logic, Micro) Rohm (Discrete, Micro)10 Sendai, Miyagi Freescale (Logic)11 Shiroishi, MiyagiSource IHS iSuppli Sony Semiconductor (Logic)12 Tsukuba, Ibaraki Rohm (Discrete)13 Tsuruoka, Yamagata Renesas (Logic)14 Utsunomiya, Tochigi Matushita (Discrete) 7Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8. Supply Chain Impact & RecoveryDistance From Epicenter ImpactsSupply DisruptionsBrownoutsAftershocks &Workforce DisruptionInfrastructure DamageEquipment && LimitationsLogistics Interruption Rolling BlackoutsSafety, Food, Gas Electricity, Water, Roads Building Damage Time to Shipment Restoration 1 to 34 to 6 1 to 2 3 to 44 to 6 Weeks WeeksMonths MonthsMonthsSource IHS iSuppli Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8 9. Temporary supply chain relief Semiconductor Supplier Inventory40 9035 80Billions of USD30 70Days25 602015 50Q109 Q108Q208Q308 Q408 Q209Q309 Q409Q110 Q210 Q1-11 EQ310 Q4-10 Inventory Value Avg. No. of DaysSource: IHS iSuppli Q1 2011 Application Market Forecast Tool (AMFT)Source: IHS iSuppli Q1 2011 Semiconductor Inventory Tracker) Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.9 10. Race against the clock:Semiconductor suppliers Freescale Rohm Sendai Will not reopen; Shifting production Miyagi Temporary stop operation again on 4/7 dueto aftershock; Restart initial production 4/17 Fujitsu Tsukuba Temporary stop operation again on 4/11 Aizu Wakamatsu Partial restart of operations ondue to aftershock; Restart initial production 4/133/23 Iwate Still in recovery; Assessing damage from 4/7 Sony Semiconductoraftershock Shiroishi Production still suspended Miyagi Partial restart of operations on 3/28;Assessing damage from 4/11 aftershock Texas Instruments Miho Restarted initial production; Target full Mitsumi production in mid-July; Relocated 80% of production Atsugi Normal production restored during recovery Aizu Expected to resume full production soon ON Semiconductor Aizu Fully recovered Toshiba Gunma Ramping to full capacity Iwate Temporary stop operation again on 4/11 dueto aftershock; Restart initial production 4/18; Four Renesas months to full production Goshogawara Temporary stop operation again on Mie Expect 80-90 percent production recovery for4/7 due to aftershock; Restart initial production 4/12May Hitachinaka Working to restore both 300mm and200mm lines; Partial operation of clean room on 4/10 Takasaki Restarted operations on 4/8 Tsuruoka Temporary stop operation again on 4/7due to aftershock; Restart initial production 4/12Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 10 11. Race against the clock:Key materials Silicon wafers (300mm) BT Resin Shinetsu Hitachi Chemicals Shirakawa Target 70% production in June Yamazaki - At 20% level on 4/20; Targets 40% May, 60% Gunma Prospect of reopening still uncertainJune, 70% July- Sept Kashima Partial restart of operations on 4/11 Polyvinylidene SUMCO Yonezawa Partial restart of operations Kureha Production suspended Covalent Materials Other materials in process of recovery Kitakanbara Still impacted by blackouts Copper foil Hydrogen peroxide Semiconductor mounting material Mitsubishi Gas Chemical Photoresist Kashima Currently at 30% supply; Target 70% in June Semiconductor encapsulant and 100% in July; Challenge to hit targets Compound wafers ADEKA LED chips Fuji Operations suspended Semiconductor gas Nippon Peroxide Ultrapure water Koriyama Restarted operations 4/7 Crystal and quartz components Aluminum electrolytic capacitors Aluminum substrates Nippon Chemi-con Miyagi Two months to recover 100% capacity Nichicon Rubycon Note Japanese suppliers control 70% of WW productionCopyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.11 12. Component supply healthSource: IHS iSuppli April 2011 Component Health Watch (CHW) Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 12 13. Impact RenesasRenesas Components in Selected Devices Source IHS iSuppli Teardown Analysis Product Type OEMModel Memory Logic/Micro Analog DiscreteDesktop PCApple Apple iMac MB950LL/A 111Desktop PCAsusAsus M3A76-CM8Desktop PCAsusAsus M4A78-EM8Nettop PC Apple Apple Mac Mini A1347 1 4Nettop PC Apple Apple Mac Mini A1283 1 6Notebook PC Apple Apple MacBook1 6Notebook PC Apple Apple MacBook1 2Notebook PC Apple Apple MacBook Pro1 8Notebook PC HPHP Pavilion dv6t 3Notebook PC HPHP Pavilion dv6z 3Notebook PC HPHP EliteBook 8440p 2Notebook PC HPHP G62t-2503Notebook PC LenovoLenovo ThinkPad T410 1 5Notebook PC SonySony VGN-CS215J/W1Notebook PC Toshiba Toshiba Protg R70011UMPCSamsung Samsung NP-Q1EX-FA01US 1UMPCViliv Samsung X70 EX 1Printer SonySony UP-D89710LCD TVSharp Sharp LC-52XS1U Television 1 7TV Receiver Sharp Sharp TU-X1U AVC System 2 3Set Top Box Apple Apple TV 1Set Top Box Samsung Samsung SMT-H61061Set-Top Box Technicolor DirecTV H24-1002Speaker System iHomeiHome iP97 1 1Game Accessory MicrosoftMicrosoft Xbox360 Kinect 1Game ConsoleNintendoNintendo Wii 1 Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.13 14. Impact RenesasRenesas Share of Global Semiconductor SupplyRenesas Components in Selected DevicesSource IHS iSuppli Teardown Analysis Source IHS iSuppli Product TypeOEM ModelMemory Logic/Micro Analog Discrete 44.0%Nokia 2320c-2b Mobile Handset Nokia 1 Mobile Handset Nokia Nokia C5-001 Mobile Handset Nokia Nokia C6-00 1 Mobile Handset Nokia Nokia C7-00 1 Mobile Handset Nokia Nokia N81 Mobile Handset RIM RIM Blackberry Bold 9700227.3% Mobile Handset RIM RIM Blackberry Torch 9800 2 24.3%Samsung Galaxy S 8GB Mobile Handset Samsung2 11 Mobile Handset Samsung Samsung SGH-i917 2 1 Mobile Handset Sony Ericsson Sony Ericsson C901 1 Mobile Handset Sony Ericsson Sony Ericsson C905 113.0%Mobile Handset Sony Ericsson Sony Ericsson Vivaz Pro1 Tablet Apple Apple iPad Wi-Fi + 3G 16GB2 Tablet Apple Apple iPad Wi-Fi 16GB 2 3.9%Tablet Apple Apple iPad2 Wi-Fi +3G 32GB1 Tablet ArchosArchos 79001 Tablet MotorolaMotorola XOOM 1Automotive MCUAutomotiveAutomotive LogicSemiconductorElectronicsMCUs Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.14 15. MCU revenues by market$16.37 Billion $5.08 Billion Source: IHS iSuppli Q1 2011 Application Market Forecast Tool (AMFT) Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 15 16. Top Automotive MCU SuppliersSource: IHS iSuppli Q1 2011 Competitive LandscapingTool (CLT) Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 16 17. Renesas automotive customersTier 1 CustomersOEM Customers Infotainment: Alpine Mitsubishi BMW Mazda Head-Unit Blaupunkt Pioneer Cadillac Mitsubishi Continental Xanavi Chrysler Nissan Navigation Delphi Honda Renault Telematics Denso Hyundai/Kia Toyota Hitachi Mercedes VW & Audi Powertrain: Aisin Mitsubishi Chrysler Nissan Engine control Bosch GM Subaru Continental Honda Suzuki Transmission Denso Mazda Toyota Hitachi Mitsubishi Body & Comfort: Continental Honda AC, seat control Delphi Mitsubishi Denso Nissan etc. Mitsubishi Toyota Chassis & Safety Bosch Hitachi Honda Air bags, brakes, Continental Visteon Hyundai/Kia Delphi Nissan etc. Denso Toyota Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.17 18. MCU Share of AutomotiveSemiconductor ContentSource: IHS iSuppli Q1 2011 Application Market Forecast Tool (AMFT) Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.18 19. Top 22 MCU OEM Spend(39% of Total MCU Market)Source: IHS iSuppli H2 2010 OEM Semiconductor Spend Analysis Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.19 20. Medical electronicssemiconductor content profile MCU = 14.7%; $1.3BSource: IHS iSuppli Q1 2011 Application Market Forecast Tool Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 20 21. Power transistor & thyristorrevenues by market$11.61 Billion $1.94 Billion Source: IHS iSuppli Q1 2011 Application Market Forecast Tool (AMFT) Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 21 22. Power Transistor / Thyristor Share of IndustrialElectronics Semiconductor Content Source: IHS iSuppli Q1 2011 Application Market Forecast Tool (AMFT) Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 22 23. Top IGBT SuppliersSource: IHS iSuppli Q1 2011 Competitive LandscapingTool (CLT) Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 23 24. Hewlett-PackardDelta Electronics DellSamsung ElectronicsPanasonic SonyCopyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. AppleCisco SystemsSiemensLG ElectronicsDensoToshibaTop 22 Power Xstr / Thyristor OEM Spend Bosch Group(41% of Total Power Xstr / Thyristor Market) Lenovo ContinentalMotorolaNECEricssonAcerHitachiHuawei Technologies Lite-on Group24 Source: IHS iSuppli H2 2010 OEM Semiconductor Spend Analysis 25. Military / Aerospacesemiconductor content profilePwr Xstr Thyristor = 8.3%; $0.5BSource: IHS iSuppli Q1 2011 Application Market Forecast Tool Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 25 26. Key Asian Electronics Locations Japan 21% of Semiconductor Supply 49% of Optical Components 57% of Image Sensors 40% of Microcontrollers 33% of Display Drivers 60% of Silicon Wafers Key Materials and Chemicals South Korea 59% of DRAM 49% of Data Flash Memory 27% of Display Drivers 18% of Small/Medium LCD Panels 51% of Large LCD PanelsTaiwan (Hsinchu) 67% of Pure Play Foundry(Globally: 150 Fabless Semiconductor Firms > $30M) 24% of Semiconductor Supply 37% of Display Drivers 58% of Small/Medium LCD Panels 34% of Large LCD PanelsChina (Shanghai) 80% of Mobile PCsChina (Shenzhen) 25% of Mobile Handsets Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 26 27. JAPAN AND GLOBAL RISK SCENARIOSAGILITY IN RISK MITIGATIONBEST PRACTICE WORKFLOW Glenn Bassett VP Strategic Business Development IHS Design & Supply ChainCopyright 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 27 28. Moving From Risk Identification To Risk Mitigation From Manufacturer & Commodity To End Units Impacted Identifying Components In My Business Linking Down To BOMS & End Devices Prioritize Key Components/BOMS/Devices Identifying Sources Of Inventory Leverage Alternate Sourcing Tools Identify Mitigation Plan Working With Suppliers Develop Counterfeit Mitigation Plan Longer Term ImpactsCopyright 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.28 29. Moving From Manufacturer/Commodity To MPN Leverage Reference Database To Identify MPNs At Risk Analyze AVL For Linkage In Risk ComponentsCopyright 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 29 30. Moving From MPN To BOM Leveraging BOM Tools In PLM, PDM, Or In This Case IHS BOM Manager Helps Move From MPN To Affected BOM With BOM Identified, End Unit Exposure Can Be CorrelatedShown: IHS BOM ManagerCopyright 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 30 31. Prioritize Key Components, BOM, DevicesNPI Production ImminentProto-type / Pre-Production In-production with near-term delivery Prioritize End Unit Exposure Calculate Time Horizon / Revenue Risk Profile Prioritize Through End Unit Back To Component Calculate Inventory Need & PriorityCopyright 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.31 32. Where can I get this? Where Does Current Inventory Exist? Direct from the Factory Approved Vendor / Manufacturer (AVL / AML) Franchised and Authorized Sources Approved Independent Distributors Shown: IHS BOM Manager ERAI Members Valid Alternate Parts or SourcesShown: IHS-ERAICopyright 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.32 33. What alternatives exist?Equivalent Parts?Upgrades? Downgrades?Functionally equivalent options?Are they ROHS Compliant?Copyright 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 33 34. Choices AVL Or Alternate Authorized Channel Inventory Secondary Market Inventory Investment Bridge Buy Making Bets On Near Term Recovery Or Redesign Lifetime Buy Mitigating Greater Risk Time HorizonCopyright 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 34 35. Counterfeit: Industry Standards & ReportsGIDEP and ERAI are the counterfeit reporting entities DoD Adopted the SAE AS555391% of reports to date via ERAICopyright 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 35 36. The Last 6-Years of Component EOL 2009 Economic Events Drive EOL: What About 2012 Manufacturer-Issued End of Life (EOL)Distribution of EOL by Dominant Business DriverTechnology100%< 25% of Change90% Demand-Side Drivers80% ~90% of EOL in 200970%Unspecified / Administrative60% Supply SideOrganizational50%Innovation, Technology, and Manufacturing40% Environmental ComplianceDemand-Side30%20% Impact of RoHS10%Compliance 0% 20042005 20062007 2008 2009Copyright 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.36 37. Moving From Risk Identification To Risk Mitigation From Manufacturer & Commodity To End Units Impacted Identifying Components In My Business Linking Down To BOMS & End Devices Prioritize Key Components/BOMS/Devices Identifying Sources Of Inventory Leverage Alternate Sourcing Tools Identify Mitigation Plan Working With Suppliers Develop Counterfeit Mitigation Plan Longer Term ImpactsCopyright 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.37 38. Free Offer for Attendees: Risk AnalysisWe will do a BOM risk assessment for webcast attendeesFill Out Our Survey and Specify YES to Free Analysis*Or Send Email with Subject Line April 21st Webcast Offer to [email protected]*Limited to qualified electronics value chain entities.Copyright 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 38 39. Example: CounterfeitsProblems are immediately flagged and the BOM can be monitored thereafterActual Medical Devices Bill of Material (4 of 94 electronic components)ICs were failing to boot up.Maxim stated in writing that they did not manufacture the product shown in the below noted photographs. The lack of a country of origin and other visual nonconformities suggest the parts inquestion have been remarked by an unauthorized third party. Test report shows parts not performing up to spec, incorrect voltage.Copyright 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.39 40. Contact us: What do you need to know? How can IHS provide information and insight to help you? Client Scenario(s) : How will this impact my supply chain? What are my regulatory obligations andConflict Minerals Origin: Conflict-free tantalum. exposure to U.S. or California conflict minerals positions?Supply Flow: Tantalum capacitors, have already Which commodities do I use that rely on been in short supply now for over 12 months.Explicit: Conflict tantalum, gold, tin, or tungsten? WhatMinerals Trackingproducts do I use these in?Impact and Implications of Global Production:Global Reaction to Crisis will See Panic Buying Where are my raw materials,Creating Shortage and Pricing Issues manufacturers, and suppliers located? WasRolling Power Outages and Logistical Issues any Japan production ceased orExpected for the Next Several Weeks compromised?Production Disruption of Critical Materials such asPoly Silicon, Photo Resists & Resins What shortages should I expect? Will priceComponents Impacted Include and lead time increase? Should I buy parts I NAND need immediately to mitigate risk? DRAM Standard Logic If needed, where can I locate and secure Filters alternate sources of these parts? Should I Inductors redesign my product? High-Value and High-End Aluminum and What parts will be discontinued by Ceramic Capacitors manufacturers? Have any been discontinued MOSFETs already? Which ones?Likely Rise in Counterfeit Part Activity: How do I avoid counterfeits? Do I have anyJust prior to Japan quake, the senate launched today that I dont know of? What specificcongressional investigation counterfeit parts risk. lots of parts are counterfeit? Among reasons, a 2010 study by the CommerceDepartment found the problem of counterfeit parts If a highly constrained supply chaintouched nearly 40% of the DoDs parts supplyImplicit: Risk ofpersists or parts were discontinued what chain, and was getting worse.Counterfeit Partssafer open market part sources exist?Copyright 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 40 41. Join the ConversationFollow IHS on TwitterGet the latest supply chain news,updates and trending topics from@IHS_SupplyChain Mention @IHS_Supplychain and todays webcast for an additional chance to win an iPad2* *Offer valid until April 29, 2011. 42. We want your feedback!Win a iPad2 for completing todays surveySurvey Offer:Everyone who completes the survey at theconclusion of todays live event will be entered intoa drawing to win an iPad2.**Offer valid to all survey respondents until April 29, 2011.Risk Analysis/BOM Assessment:1) Complete the Survey and Specify YES to Free Analysis or2) Send Email with Subject Line April 21st Webcast Offer to [email protected]****Limited to qualified electronics value chain entities.42 43. Questions?Send questions and requests for information to: [email protected]