ifpri - dr. p.k. joshi's presentation at the national consultation workshop on challenges and...

Food and Nutrition Security in South Asia:

Challenges and Opportunities

P K Joshi

International Food Policy Research Institute IFPRI-South Asia Regional Office, NASC Complex, Pusa

New Delhi 110 012 India

E-mail: [email protected]

Web: www.ifpri.org

International Food Policy Research Institute

Outline

Key challenges in South Asian countries

Opportunities in South Asia region

Approaches for ensuring food & nutrition security

I

Key Challenges in South Asian countries


Asia has largest concentration of undernourished

population in the world (million)

1990-92 2010-12

World 1000 868

Africa 175 239

Asia 739 565

S Asia 327 304

SE Asia 134 65

Asia in the world

74% in 1990-92 to 65% now

27% in Africa

South Asia in world

33% in 1990-92 to 35% now

Southeast Asia in world

14% in 1990-92 to 7% now

South Asian countries

High economic growth

Poor agriculture


Acute Undernourishment in SAARC Countries

Country Under-

nourished

(%)

Child malnourishment, % Low

birth

weight

(%)

Anemic

children

(%) Underweight Stunted

Bangladesh 26.0 41.3 43.2 22 47

India 22.0 43.5 47.9 28 74

Nepal 16.0 38.8 49.3 21 48

Pakistan 23.0 31.1 41.5 32 51

Sri Lanka 21.0 21.1 17.3 18 30

South Asia 22.0 41.1 46.4 27 74


Malnutrition in ASEAN Countries

Country Undernourished

population (%)

Underweight

children, %

Child

mortality

rate, %

Cambodia 25 29 5.1

Indonesia 13 20 3.5

Lao PDR 22 32 5.4

Malaysia 2 13 0.6

Philippines 13 21 2.9

Thailand 16 7 1.3

Vietnam 11 20 2.3


Global Hunger Index(2014): Country performance by severity

Alarming or extremely alarming levels of hunger in 16 countries;

Sri Lanka ranked 37/79 countries; India 65/79 (55/76)


Global Hunger Index and South Asia


GHI and HDI in SAARC and ASEAN

Country GHI/79 HDI/187

Af ’stan Na 97

B’desh 68 134

Bhutan NA 141

India 65 145

Nepal 60 146

Pakistan 57 157

S Lanka 37 172

Country GHI/79 HDI/187

Brunei * 33

Cam’dia 56 139

Indo’sia 30 124

Lao DPR 57 138

Malaysia 3 61

Phil’ines 31 112

Singapore * 26

Thailand 18 103

Viet Nam 26 128


Yield of Rice and Maize in South and Southeast

Asian Countries (kg/ha)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Rice

Maize

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Rice

Maize


Smallholder Agriculture

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

0.8 0.8 0.9

1.23

3.11

Holding size, ha Tiny size of holdings

Majority are marginal,

having lands < 1 ha

Bangladesh 87%

India 80%

Nepal 90%

Pakistan 36%

Major objective

Food self-sufficiency


Public agricultural research spending (Source: GFPR 2014)

0.5

0.4

0.34

0.31

0.23 0.21

0.42

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

% of AgGDP

% ag research spending of Ag GDP: Asian countries

China India Sri Lanka Bangladesh

Nepal Pakistan Asia pacific

757

2276 1703

4048

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Actual PPP

Spending on ag research (m US$)

India China

Spending in African countries

South Africa 2.18%

Kenya 1.21%

Malawi 1.03%

Ghana 0.69%

Africa 0.51%

Latin American & Caribbean

Brazil 1.52%

Mexico 1.15%

LA&C 1.10%


Weak Institutions

Market risks

Long supply chains, high transactions costs and post-

harvest losses

Higher transactions costs: 15% vegetables & 20% for milk

Post harvest losses: 25-30%

Low processing: <15% milk and 1 % meat processed

Access to credit

More informal sector

Food safety and quality

Rejection of consignments


Climate change and food security

Rise in temperature

During last 70 years, temperature has increased by 1 degree cel. Approximately, 0.14 degree c per decade.

During last 22 years, it increased .2 degree c per decade

Minimum-maximum temperature increased

Dry days increased in dry and intermediate region

Rainfall pattern is changing and intensity of droughts

increasing

2012: Drought followed by cyclone and floods

30% rice production was lost: 70% rice producer are small


Policy Challenges

• Political uncertainty Policy paralysis & uncertainty

• High cost that obstruct reforms

Appeasing policies

• Policy gaps Weak governance

• Policy analysis and execution Weak capacity

• Controls, regulations and delays

Powerful bureaucracy

II

Opportunities in South Asian countries


Expenditure elasticities (based on FCDS)

Food Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan Sri lanka

Rice -0.078 -0.016 0.016 0.025 -0.071

Wheat 0.004 -0.109 -0.111 -0.121 -0.027

Veg’bles 0.500 0.673 0.599 0.565 0.748

Fruits 0.666 0.702 0.698 0.710 0.556

Milk 0.581 0.589 0.634 0.575 0.689

Meat 0.822 0.892 0.860 0.670 0.866


Annual per capita consumption (kg)

Food item 2000 2025 Change, %

Rice 75.27 72.14 -4.16

Wheat 60.48 57.11 -5.58

Food grains 168.13 160.42 -4.59

Veg’bles 51.99 87.47 68.26

Fruits 35.17 61.87 75.76

Milk 70.42 117.45 66.80

Meat 5.35 10.90 103.62

Eggs 1.51 3.02 100.04

Fish 5.69 11.28 98.06


Annual growth in demand for food (%)

Food item 2000-15 2015-25 2000-25

Rice 1.27 0.92 1.13

Wheat 1.18 0.88 1.06

Food grains 1.24 0.91 1.11

Veg’bles 3.85 2.81 3.43

Fruits 4.04 2.98 3.61

Milk 3.79 2.82 3.41

Meat 4.70 3.51 4.22

Eggs 4.64 3.43 4.16

Fish 4.59 3.40 4.11


5 pathways to raise income

Increase per unit land productivity: rice has potential for 8-10 t / ha, but getting around 4 t.

Diversification for more remunerative commodities – HVCs. Their demand is growing.

Link farmers with remunerative domestic and global markets

Adapt to climate change

Generate employment opportunities


5 steps to overcome food & nutrition

security (WFP report)

<5 years children, pregnant women, and

lactating mothers should receive nutritive food

Social vulnerable groups are provided

unconditional cash, or vouchers

Work for assets, cash for work, cash for training

Generate employment opportunities

Support back end to increase productivity


Agricultural Research for Sustainable Development

Food security: Gene, energy, land water

Technologies, Policies and Institutions

Food Security

Land

Water

Gene

Energy Climate

smart


Promote climate smart agriculture (Source: Aggarwal 2010)

Climate Smart

Nitrogen smart

Water smart

Energy smart

Carbon smart

Weather smart

Knowledge

smart

Policy smart

Climate smart interventions (FAO)

Adapting/mitigating climate change

Ensure reducing the risk arising due to climate change

Augmenting farm income.

Triple wins (World Bank)

Higher yields, more carbon sequestration, and greater resilience to heat and drought

Feasible interventions

Resource endowments

Capacity indicators

III

Lessons for ensuring Food & Nutrition Security in Sri Lanka


What lessons can be learnt from global

initiative

2nd International conference on nutrition

Emphasis on multi-sectoral approach for nutrition security: nutrition-agriculture, and agriculture-health

Zero hunger in Brazil fast growing economy to

tackle food insecurity and hunger challenges

Post 2015 agenda of achieving food and

nutrition security by 2030

IFPRI's COMPACT 2025

Social protection plans from other countries


Indian illustration: Government strategy for

ensuring food security (national and household)

• Food Security Mission

• Subsidy in fertilizer and irrigation

• MSP and assured procurement

Production

• Food reserve and stocks (>80 million ton)

• 500 thousand fair price shops Availability

• Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Program

• Direct Cash Transfer Access

• Subsidized food to people BPL

• Food Security Bill (Right to Food) Affordability


Sri Lanka approach for food & nutrition

security

Food based approach for adequate, safe and

quality food

Dietary diversity to ensure nutrients

Nutrient enhancement through fortification

Enact and implement food safety

regulations


Conditions for success

Investment

Improved technologies

Develop appropriate institutions

Capacity development of key stakeholders

Coordination among stakeholders

Better weather or disaster forecast


What next?

IFPRI intends to undertake research by

documenting and analysing best practices

Capacity development in policy analysis and

policy communication

Develop value chain in domestic and global

markets by engaging private sector

Develop food & nutrition policy and its

implementation sstrategy

Thank you

ifpri - dr. p.k. joshi's presentation at the national consultation workshop on challenges and...

Economy & Finance

africa south asia

countries india

s asia

se asia

african countries south

food nutrition security

countries sri lanka

ag research spending