if you them will they come? emigration intentions · survey amongagricultural students •...

Dr. Diana Traikova, IAMO Forum 2016

If you call them will they come? Emigration intentions among Eastern European skilled farmers

www.iamo.de 2

Overview

1. Agricultural education and jobs in Bulgaria

2. Theoretical background

3. Data and methods

4. Results

5. Summary

Agricultural education in Bulgaria

• Transition – still not perfect adjustment to the market• Mismatch betwen labor market needs and university programs• Universities are funded based quantity and not quality• Demographic change• Competition among universities‐> loose admission criteria• Barely any professional consulting before the choice of study

program

The agricultural training in universities

• Low quality of the equimpment, overloaded study programs• Crisis in agriculture (especially in livestock sector)• Graduates unprepared for the practice• Many graduates work in different field and start from scratch• Misallocation of public money, of time and talent

Maybe some of these graduatesunfitting the local labor marketcould bring relief in the shortageof skilled farm labor in Germany ?

Survey among agricultural students

• Representive results for soon‐to‐graduate students in Bulgaria• Four universities• Sample of 461 students• Questionnaires filled out in class• Topics

– Professional plans– Lifestyle preferences– Abroad experience– Migration inclinations

Dr. Diana Traikova 7

Do you plan to work in farming after graduation? N=461

11.7%

15.0%

31.5%

16.5%

25.4%

absolut nicht eher nicht so-soeher ja absolut jaabsolutely no

rather yes

rather noabsolutely yes

so‐so


Which lifestyle do you prefer? N=461

58.5

21.619.9

020

4060

perc

ent

städtisch ländlich egalurban rural like both


Have you ever worked on a farm? N=461

67.2%

32.8%

NeinJaNoYes


How do you see your job chances in Bulgaria? N=461

0 10 20 30 40percent

sehr gut

gut

so-so

schlecht

sehr schlechtvery bad

bad

so‐so

good

very good

Language skills %, N=461

1.5

7.8

13.7

77.0

0 20 40 60 80percent

Fortgeschrittene

Intermediate

Anfänger

keine

Deutsch

21.7

36.2

25.6

16.5

0 10 20 30 40percent

Fortgeschrittene

Intermediate

Anfänger

keine

EnglischGerman English

none

beginner

advanced

intermediate

none

beginner

intermediate

advanced


Do you believe the situation in Bulgariawill improve in the next 5 years? N=461

23.6%

24.5%28.9%

15.6%

7.4%

absolut nicht eher nicht so-soeher ja absolut jaabsolutely norather yes

rather noabsolutely yes

so‐so


Should you receive a job offer as skilled farmer in rural Germany, how likely is it that you will emigrate within 5 years? N=461

17.1%

17.1%

32.5%

18.9%

14.3%

sehr unwahrscheinlich unwahrscheinlich so-sowahrscheinlich sehr wahrscheinlich

Means 66 students!

Just a drop in the sea!

87 students

very unlikely

likely very likelyunlikely so‐so


Intender/Stayer division

Should you receive a job offer as skilled farmer in rural Germany, how likely is it that you will emigrate within 5 years?

1 2 3 4 5

very unlikely very likely

Intenders

Following question used:

Stayers


Group comparison

Source: Own calculation.


German skills by group, N=461

3

13

18

119

4

23

45

236

0 50 100 150 200 250frequency

migriert

bleibt

Fortgeschritten

Intermediate

Anfänger

keine

Fortgeschritten

Intermediate

Anfänger

keine

Own calculation.

none

beginner

intermediate

advanced

Stayers

Intenders

none

beginner

intermediate

advanced


English skills by group, N=461

Own calcualtion.

37

65

32

19

63

102

86

56

0 20 40 60 80 100Häufigkeit

migriert

bleibt

Fortgeschritten

Intermediate

Anfänger

keine

Fortgeschritten

Intermediate

Anfänger

keinenone

beginner

intermediate

advanced

none

beginner

intermediate

advanced

Stayers

Intenders

frequencies


Ajzen‘s Theory of Planned Behavior

AttitudeDo I like the idea?

Social normsWhat will the others say?

Perceived controlCan I make it?

Intentionto migrate

Adapted from Ajzen, 1991.

Backgrou

nd factors


Theoretical model

Economicmotives

Non‐economicmotives

Attitude

Socialnorms

Perceived control

Instrumentalbarriers

Social barriers

Migrationintention


Operationalisation of migration intentions

Intention indicators

I would apply for a farm job in rural Germany

Should you receive a job offer as skilled farmer in rural Germany, how likely is it thatyou will emigrate within 5 years?

I would migrate to rural Germany for a longer time (4+ years)

I plan to emigrate.

Chronbach‘s Alpha = 0,772AVE = 0,585Composite reliability = 0,847HTMT Attitude –> Intention = 0,792

valid measurement


Operationalisation migration motives

Economic Non‐economic

Improve skills Escape corruption

Escape unemployment Escape Bulgarian mentality

Earn money I love to work with animals

Prepare my own farm I like the rural lifestyle

To use the social benefits in Germany I am happy with my life in Bulgaria

I would like to manage

I like the idea to work as a farm specialist in rural Germany


Operationalisation migration barriers

Instrumental Social

I have abroad experience I can‘t go because of children/elderly

I can easily find a place to stay I have supportive contacts in Germany

I can easily handle the language barrier I am confident I can integrate in Germany

I can handle the skills mismatch I can easily handle the stress from separation

I can easily fund the trip

These indicators form the perceived control

I can!


Partial Least Squares (PLS) Model, N=461

Own calculation with SmartPLS 3.


Message PLS Model

Economic motives

Attitude

Socialnorms

Perceived control


SozialeBarrieren

Migrationintentions

Skills

MoneyBG unemployment

Prepare own farm

Be a manager

Family

LanguageAccommodation

Skills mismatch

Integration


82

42

29 27

19 18 18

93 2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90freq

uencies

Reasons to leave Bulgaria, N=249

Open question answers.


142

57

2316

7 61 1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

family patriot optimistfor BG

ownbusiness

good job own farm noavailablejobs

abroad

no moneyto leave

freq

uencies

Reasons to stay in Bulgaria, N=253

Open question answers.

Dr. Diana Traikova, IAMO 27

Take home message

• If at all, only few graduates would come to work as skilledfarmers in rural Germany. (about 50 persons per year max!)

• Main migration motives aremoney and skills improvement.

• Biggest perceived obstacles are insufficient languageproficiency, skills mismatch and fear of difficult integration.

Dr. Diana Traikova, IAMO 28

Further details and country report

www.alfa‐agrar.de

Thank you!

Dr. Diana Traikova

IAMO

Email: [email protected]


Message PLS Model

Economic motives

Attitude

Socialnorms

Perceived control


SozialeBarrieren

Migrationintentions

Skills

MoneyBG unemployment

Prepare own farm

Be a manager

Family

LanguageAccommodation

Skills mismatch

Integration

if you them will they come? emigration intentions · survey amongagricultural students •...

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