Mathematical Model for Probability of Salvation: Theory of Karma

Dr. Ved Madan Department of Natural Sciences and Mathematics

St. Mary’s University College Calgary, Alberta, Canada T2X 1Z4

ved.madan@stmu.ab.ca

Abstract— Probability represents a degree of belief or level of confidence we place in a hypothesis. The law of “karma” based on the cause and effect forms the integral part of the Hindu, Buddhist, and Jain philosophy. In statistics, Bayes’ theorem was formulated two hundred years ago to re-evaluate probabilities when a new evidence for or against the hypothesis comes to light. Since we are contributing to karmas based on our actions good and bad deeds, our salvation or nirvana is being determined by the cumulative effects of good and bad karmas. This paper examines the status of salvation as we reincarnate into different lives doing good and bad karmas. A simple model for salvation shows that a person can achieve salvation or nirvana by continuing to do good karmas in eight consecutive lives.

Keywords: Bayes’ Theorem, Life Cycles, Salvation, Nirvana, Theory of Karma

I. THE THEORY OF KARMA Human birth occurs after the soul goes through 8.4

million species. This is called a cycle. If we want to free ourselves from this cycle i.e. liberate the soul, and gain salvation or nirvana we have to do good karmas. The theory of karma [1] asserts that we are the reason for our sufferings or happiness. Good karmas are the results of good activities and bad karmas are the results of bad or sinful activities. The good and bad activities, intentional or unintentional can be caused by mental, verbal or physical means. Besides we may perform these acts ourselves, ask some one to do these deeds or encourage someone to carry out these deeds for us. Moreover these activities may be destructive or nondestructive, weak or strong, performed over a short or long interval of time. Further more the intensity with which we strike other beings with these types of behaviors may be loose, tight, or tightest. The bondage to soul by these karmas is also dependent upon the nature, quantity, intensity, and durations. Therefore there are at least 2x2x3x3x2x2x2x4 = 1152 different types of acquired karmas. As a result the path to salvation or nirvana to free soul from such bondages becomes very difficult.

II. BAYESIAN THEORY Bayes’ Theorem [2] is a theorem originally stated by

Reverend Thomas Bayes. It has been used to clarify the relationship between theory and evidence. Stephen Unwin [3] has used Bayes’ theorem in his paperback “The probability of God: A Simple Calculation That Proves the Ultimate Truth”, starting with the maximum ignorance of the question of God i.e. 50-50 chance that God exists. He comes up with 67% probability of God’s existence. Several other assumptions are made in the calculations but nevertheless his work is a good illustration of Bayes’ theorem. In the theory of karma, good deeds involve acts of loving, caring, helping, comforting and praying. Although the list may go on we will contend ourselves with these acts mainly. Similarly bad deeds would mean activities that involve killing, hurting, insulting swearing and in general making other souls unhappy. Each activity may be assigned a scale factor “k” we call karma factor. The value assigned to the karma factor determines the impact of our deed in achieving salvation.

III. MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR SALVATION For analyzing salvation, we use Bayes’ Theorem;

** (1 )

beforeafter

before before

P kP

P k P=

+ −

Where beforeP = 0.5 is assumed probability of salvation at

first birth, and afterP = probability at time of death, and k = karma factor as per following assumptions:

k = 1 means that the activity results in no change of

salvation status i.e. after beforeP P= k = 10 is a Supreme act of kindness, while k = 0.10 is bad

karma diminishing salvation by 1/10 its acquired value. We have attached Table 1 values to good and bad karmas.

Table 1 Karma factors Karma Bad deeds Karma factor

Second International Conference on Computer Research and Development

978-0-7695-4043-6/10 $26.00 © 2010 IEEE

DOI 10.1109/ICCRD.2010.99

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factor Loving 10 Killing 0.10 Caring 8 Hurting 0.08 Helping 6 Insulting 0.06 Comforting 4 Swearing 0.04 Praying 2 Making other

souls unhappy0.02

The excel worksheet calculations are performed using

above model based on three different assumptions:

1) The person does bad deeds in all lives 2) The person does good deeds in all lives 3) The person does good and bad deeds in all lives

The effect of good or bad deeds is assumed to be cumulative. As such the average values are determined for all activities for evaluating the status of salvation. See Tables 2, 3, and 4 below.

Table 2 Bad Deeds Bad Karma Types Pbefore Karma Factor k Pafter Killing 0.5 0.1 0.09090 Hurting 0.5 0.08 0.07407 Insulting 0.5 0.06 0.05660 Swearing 0.5 0.04 0.03846 Making other souls unhappy

0.5 0.02 0.01960

Average 0.5 0.06 0.0559 Table 3 Good Deeds Good Karma Types Pbefore Karma

factor k Pafter

Loving 0.5 10 0.90909 Caring 0.5 8 0.88888 Helping 0.5 6 0.85714 Comforting 0.5 4 0.80000 Praying 0.5 2 0.66666 Average 0.05 6.0 0.82435 Table 4 Good and Bad Deeds Good and Bad Deeds Pbefore Pafter

Average 0.5 0.4412

Table 5 shows the effects of bad deeds, good and bad deeds, and good deeds only on the status of salvation.

Table 5 Status of Salvation Life Cycle

Bad Deeds only

Good/Bad deeds

Good Deeds only

0 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 1 0.0559 0.4401 0.8244 2 0.0035 0.4168 0.9011 3 0.0003 0.4071 0.9470 4 0.9725 5 0.9859 6 0.9967 7 0.9998

1) The person doing bad deeds has little or no chance for salvation as P (Salvation, 3) = 0.0002 at the end four lives; such a person is bound to suffer in all lives 2) The person who is consistently loving, caring, helping, comforting and praying can expect Nirvana i.e. unite with the Supreme divine soul in eight lives since P (salvation, 7) = 0.9998. 3) Person doing good and bad deeds does not show any promise of salvation either, because P (salvation, 3) = 0.4071 while P (salvation, 1) = 0.5; any hopes for salvation lie in changing the paths to building on good karmas.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT The author is grateful for supports provided by St. Mary’s University College and Athabasca University.

REFERENCES

[1] Electronic Publication: Theory of Karma, Lessons for Juniors

http://www.jainworld.com/education/juniors/junles18.htm

[2] Electronic Publication: Bayes’ Theorem http://www.trinity.edu/cbrown/bayesWeb/index.html

[3] S. Unwin, The Probability of God: A Simple Calculation That Proves the Ultimate Truth, Three Rivers Press, 2004.

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