iea - energy technology perspectives 2010 - key figures
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IEA - Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 - Key FiguresTRANSCRIPT
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Energy Technology Perspectives 2010
Key graphs
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Key technologies for reducing global CO2
emissions under the BLUE Map scenario
A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions substantially.
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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gt C
O2
CCS 19%
Renewables 17%
Nuclear 6%
Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5%
End-use fuel switching 15%
End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%
BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt
Baseline emissions 57 Gt
WEO 2009 450 ppmcase ETP2010 analysis
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Primary energy demand by fuel and by scenario
By 2050, coal, oil and gas demand are all lower than today under the BLUE Map scenario.
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2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
Mto
e 2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050
-27%
-36%
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Global energy-related CO2 emissions in the Baseline and BLUE Map scenarios
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Baseline BLUE Map
Gt C
O2
Other
Buildings
Transport
Industry
Other transformation
Power generation
Global CO2 emissions double in the Baseline, but in the BLUE Map scenario abatement across all sectors reduces emissions to half 2005 levels by 2050.
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Decarbonising the electricity sector
A mix of renewables, nuclear and fossil-fuels combined with CCS will be needed to decarbonise the electricity sector.
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2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050
BLUE High Nuclear 2050
BLUE High Ren 2050
PW
hOther
Solar
Wind
Biomass+CCS
Biomass and waste
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural gas+CCS
Natural gas
Oil
Coal+CCS
Coal
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Average annual electricity capacity additions to 2050 needed to achieve the BLUE Map scenario
Annual rates of investment in many low-carbon electricitygenerating technologies must be massively increased fromtoday’s levels.
0 10 20 30 40 50
Solar CSP
Solar PV
Geothermal
Wind-offshore
Wind-onshore
Biomass plants
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas-fired with CCS
Coal-fired with CCS
GW/ yr
Present rate Gap to reach BLUE Map
30 plants (1 000 MW)
200 plants (50 MW)
12 000 turbines (4 MW)
3 600 turbines (4 MW)
45 units (100 MW)
55 CSP plants (250 MW)
325 million m2 solar panels
2/3 of Three Gorges Dam
35 plants (500 MW)
20 plants (500 MW)
Historical high
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
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to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Smart grid CO2 reductions in 2050 in theBLUE Map scenario vs. Baseline scenario
Smart grids can reduce CO2 emissions both through better management of the grid and by facilitating the deployment of low-carbon technologies, such as renewables and electric vehicles.
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0.25
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0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
Direct reductions Enabled reductions
Greater integration of
renewables
Facilitation of electric vehicles and plug-in electric vehicles
Energy savings from peak load management
Continuous commissioning of
service sector loads
Accelerated deployment of energy efficiency programs
Reduced line losses (voltage control)
Direct feedback on energy usage
0.34- 0.69
0.31- 0.62
0.09- 0.27
0.03- 0.25
0.01- 0.05
0.00- 0.01
0.07- 0.27
Gt
CO
2/
yr
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Additional investment needs, BLUE Map scenario vs. Baseline scenario
Over the period to 2050, most of the additional investment in low-carbon technologies will be needed in non-OECD countries.
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OECD Other major economies
Emerging economies
Least developed countries
USD
bill
ion
/ y
r
Buildings
Transport
Industry
Power sector
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Evolution of light-duty vehicle sales by technology
Baseline scenario BLUE Map scenario
In the BLUE Map scenario advanced technologies, such as plug-inhybrid, all-electric and fuel-cell vehicles, dominate sales after 2030.
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
mill
ion
sal
es/
yr
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Hydrogen fuel cell
Hydrogen hybrid
Electricity
CNG and LPG
Plug-in hybrid diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
Hybrid diesel
Hybrid gasoline
Diesel
Gasoline
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
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to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement by region
In the BLUE Map scenario, most of the reductions in energy-relatedCO2 emissions are in non-OECD countries.
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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gt
CO
2Other Non-OECD 19%
Other major economies 14%
India 12%
China 27%
Other OECD 10%
OECD Europe 7%
USA 11%BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt
Baseline emissions 57 Gt
ETP2010 analysis WEO 2009 450 ppm case
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ENERGY
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PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
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to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Environmental co-impacts of electricity generation technologies
Most renewable technologies have positive environmental co-impacts compared to current coal ultra-super critical plant.
Air Water Land Air Water Land
Coal - USC 0.777
Coal - BiomassPos itive Pos i tive
Variable /
Uncerta in
Variable /
Uncerta inMinimal Minimal
0.622
Coal - CCSNegative Negative Negative
Variable /
Uncerta inNegative Minimal
0.142
Coal - IGCCMinimal
Variable /
Uncerta inMinimal Pos i tive Pos i tive Minimal
0.708
NGCCPos itive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive
0.403
NuclearPos itive
Variable /
Uncerta in
Variable /
Uncerta inPos i tive Negative Pos itive
0.005
Solar - CSPPos itive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Negative Minimal
0.017
Solar - PVPos itive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Minimal
0.009
Wind Pos itive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tiveVariable /
Uncerta in 0.002
CO2
Emissionst/MWh
Energy
Technologies
Baseline Technology for Relative Assessments Below
Life Cycle Impacts(Pre- and Post-Generation) Power Generation Impacts