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Northwestern University IEMS 393
Feasibility Study for Electric Vehicle Charging Stations in Evanston, Illinois
Ximena Arias, Carolina Pardo, Harsha Patel, Stefano Pianura, Santiago Valdez
June 2, 2011
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Table of Contents
INTRODUCTION 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
STAGE 1: EARLY IMPLEMENTATION 5
VENDOR AND TECHNOLOGY 5 RECOMMENDED VENDOR AND TECHNOLOGY 5 PRICING STRATEGY 5 KEY FINANCIAL CONSIDERATIONS 6 PROMOTIONAL STRATEGY 7 LOGISTICS: QUEUING MODEL 8
STAGE 2: SCALABLE GROWTH 10
NEW TECHNOLOGIES 10 PRICING STRATEGY 10 NEW PLACES TO EXPAND 11 METRICS FOR HOW TO EXPAND 12
STAGE 3: FUTURE POSSIBILITIES 13
EXPANSION 13 NEW TECHNOLOGY 13 LEASING TO PRIVATE COMPANIES 13 ASSESSING THE STATE OF THE GRID 13
RISKS 13
APPENDICES 15
A. RESEARCH 15 B. ANALYSIS 19 B.1 PRICING AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 19 B.2 DEMAND GROWTH 31 B.3 QUEUING MODEL 33
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Introduction
The following report contains a compilation of our recommendations for the City of Evanston’s Electric Vehicle Charging Station implementations. Throughout the course of our work with the CoE’s Sustainability Office we enjoyed learning about the project and exploring its potential for success and growth.
The high level of foresight and initiative the CoE has taken with regards to Electric Vehicles has greatly impressed our team. Our hope is that these recommendations and deliverables will facilitate this growth and foresight, helping translate ideas into action in the near future. With this goal in mind we have structured our report and deliverables to aid and inform CoE’s decisions, with an emphasis on practical planning and analysis. More detailed quantitative and academic research is provided as a supplement to the more practical, user-‐centered portions of the report.
Report Structure
We have divided this report into three sections, corresponding to three stages of implementation for EV charging station implementation.
An appendix supplements the report with further detail on analysis and research, as well as suggestions for further exploration.
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Executive Summary
Stage 1: Early Implementation Goal Encourage EV technology adoption and brand Evanston as a green and forward-‐looking city. Installation Purchase two dual level (Level 1&2) Coulomb Technologies Charging Stations through Carbon Day vendor
Why? -‐ Ownership of the stations allows control over pricing decisions -‐ Two stations will meet at least 97% of demand up to five charges per day on average
Location 1800 St. Maple Parking Garage Why?
-‐ Maple Garage’s internal wiring allows a lower cost installation -‐ Less disruption of existing traffic flow -‐ More exposure and visibility to Evanston Community
Publicity • Offer free charging until competitors start applying a fee for charging EVs • Invest in signs and publicity • Partner with iGo and local businesses Why?
-‐ Ensure visitors to the garage know there is an EV charging station available, and are able to find it -‐ Spread the word to the broader community that Evanston is an early adopter of this technology
Financial Considerations
• The estimated cost for purchase and installation of two stations is $13,500. • We recommend enforcing two types of parking violation tickets:
• $30 for overtime parking • $200 for illegal parking
• Estimated revenue from parking tickets will cover electrical and other operating costs. • In this stage the stations are not profitable, and instead act as a promoter of growth and an
investment
Stage 2: Scalable Growth Goal Make the appropriate expansion and pricing decisions based on a monitored level of demand Expansion Strategy
Monitor demand, use provided metrics to respond. Expand into Sherman Plaza Garage Why? To avoid turning away more than 3% of potential chargers, we provide indicators that Evanston can use to determine when to purchase an additional charging station
Pricing Strategy Refer to our pricing guide to learn how applying different fees per hour of charging will affect financial estimates and payback periods
Maintain Flexibility
Watch for technology adaptation. For example, the state of the technology of DC Fast Charging stations as plausible solutions for installation on strategic curbside parking spots
Stage 3: Future Possibilities Goal Plan for long-‐term risks, challenges, and opportunities. Take advantage of emerging technologies. Expansion Possibilities
• Consider expanding to outside street parking • Implementing solar charging stations or other renewable energy sources • Giving charging station concessions to private companies • Asses the state of the grid
Pricing Strategy At this stage, pricing will likely be dominated by market forces. Set prices to competitive levels.
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Stage 1: Early Implementation Vendor and Technology
Although we considered the possibility of the City of Evanston leasing its parking spaces to a private company in order to decrease any expenses or risks, we ultimately recommend that the CoE buy and operate their own charging stations (See Appendix A.1 for Vendors). Owning and operating the EV charging stations will allow the CoE to control charging rates and number of stations without harming their customers.
Recommended Vendor and Technology
Carbon Day is an Illinois-‐based company and the biggest distributor of Coulomb Technology charging stations in the Midwest. Their technology uses ChargePoint® Network, which allows the City of Evanston to closely monitor the charging station’s operations and tailor pricing strategies with a high degree of control.
Coulomb Technology offers the 3 types of charging levels, allowing charges in an enclosed space (garage): Level 1, 2, and DC Quick Charging. We recommend the City of Evanston to acquire charging stations that offer dual levels, level 1 and 2, allowing two cars to charge simultaneously. (See Appendix A.2 for Technology) Given the early stage of the project and size of the current market, we recommend avoiding DC: Quick Charging stations, given their high upfront cost and installation expenses, as well as potential compatibility issues with existing EV cars on the market. Each dual charging station has a cost of $5,000 and an approximate installation cost of $2,500; costs are explained thoroughly in the upcoming sections.
Although charging time varies among types of cars, a Level 1 station charges a car in approximately 8-‐13 hours and uses 120 Volts. Level 2 charging stations require 4-‐8 hours to charge a car and use 208-‐240 Volts. (See Appendix A.3 for current cars in the market).
Pricing Strategy
For the initial stage, we recommend EV charging stations be free for use. There are two main reasons why we recommend adopting this strategy. Firstly, we believe that charging a fee can be counterproductive to the main goal for this initial stage: encouraging the adoption of EV technology and sending a message of sustainability and social responsibility. In fact, offering free charging will be an incentive for current EV drivers to park in the garage or for potential EV buyers to consider acquiring an EV. Secondly, due to the small market size for EVs and the young stage of the technology, offering free charging will not constitute a large source of lost revenues; In fact, this is the strategy that is currently adopted by the large majority of EV charging stations’ owners in the United States, including those in the Chicago area.
Because in this initial stage the charging stations won’t generate revenue directly, we considered an alternative source of revenue: parking violation tickets. Particularly we recommend the CoE enforce the following two types of parking violation tickets (please see Appendix B.1 for more details on the financial model):
1. Overtime Parking Tickets: tickets given to violators who fail to remove their vehicle after the 30-‐minute grace period following the time when the vehicle is fully charged (the EV driver will receive an e-‐mail or SMS notification for charging complete)
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2. Illegal Parking Tickets: tickets given to violators who park in the spots reserved for EV charging without charging their vehicles.
Key Financial Considerations
The estimated cost for the purchase and installation of two EV charging stations is $13,460. This amount includes a 5-‐year extended warranty, an annual network fee and a 30% federal tax credit.
The cost of operating the stations will depend on the EV model and the level of charging. An average charging session lasting 3.4 hours without processing fee applied will cost $0.99 ($0.49 for electricity + $0.5 for the vendor’s authorization fee) (see Appendix B.1 for more details on the financial model)
We estimated that even without applying a fee for the use of the charging stations, electrical costs and additional costs of operating the charging stations would be fully covered by revenues generated from parking violation tickets. This is illustrated by the following graph showing annual costs and revenues from operations based on different levels of demand (see Appendix B.1 for more details on our financial analysis for the Free Charging Scenario).
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Promotional Strategy
A crucial criterion for the success of Stage 1 is the effectiveness of the promotional strategy. First and foremost, people who live or work in the city of Evanston need to be aware of charging stations in the 1800 Maple Avenue parking garage. There are a few simple ways to do this:
1. A clear and visible sign should be put up on the outside wall of the entrance of the parking garage. Further signs should be installed inside to guide potential users to the charging stations. Using white and green colors could also serve as a way to show drivers that this was a green initiative started by the city.
2. A series of broadcasted announcements on the radio about the inauguration of the stations, with the locations and rate of operation, would also help alert Evanston of this development.
3. An announcement or even a brief article explaining the new developments would also help inform people.
Potential Partnerships
Another potentially valuable promotional strategy is to find strategic partners who could also benefit from the EV charging stations. An ideal candidate would be I-‐Go Car Sharing. The company recently released an announcement stating their desire to put as many as 30 EVs on the road by the end of 2011. A partnership with I-‐Go presents several advantages. From a marketing point of view, each I-‐Go car services many users, increasing the “audience” of residents that can experience the technology. Further, I-‐Go can act as a stable customer of the stations, potentially providing an initial stream of revenue.
Car dealerships are another potential partner. They stand to benefit from the added infrastructure by an increase in car sales, and as a result may be willing to share some of the burden of advertisement, or even installation costs. Equally important, car dealerships can serve as a source of information to residents thinking of buying an EV. Keeping car dealerships aware of charging capabilities in Evanston helps ensure that the information gets to the residents who need it most.
The City of Evanston could also look into implementing a similar process of ticket validation that is already in place in some restaurants, shops and theaters close to this parking garage. This way, people with EV would get that extra privilege, thus bringing in more revenue from those shoppers and rewarding people who made the change.
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Logistics: Queuing Model
Since demand for the charging station is uncertain we relied on simulation in order to determine the optimal number of stations to acquire for a given level of demand. The model varies demand while minimizing the percent of customers who are being denied a spot to charge. We provided three tolerance levels for blocking customers (3%, 5% and 10%). In each model, when the number of customers blocked goes over the tolerance level we acquire another station. (See Appendix B.3 for further detail on the queuing model).
Determining the Optimal Number of Stations
During stage one the city of Evanston should aim to meet all the demand that comes into the garage. Therefore for this initial stage, we recommend the City of Evanston to adopt the first tolerance level simulation model (3% blockage rate).The graph below shows the optimal number of stations to acquire as charges per day increases:
Graph 1: Optimal number of stations needed to meet 97% of charges per day
We recommend the city of Evanston to acquire for this initial stage 2 stations. We believe this is the best way to start since 2 stations will meet 97% of demand until the charges go up to 5 per day. If we acquire 1 station the city will be forced to acquire a second one shortly after (after 0.8 charges a day). Furthermore, in this initial stage we want the city to establish a strong first impression by minimizing the amount of customers they cannot serve. This initial target to meet 97% of demand shows that the city is seriously committed to the electric vehicle initiative.
The graph provided above will allow the city to monitor the charges per day as time goes by and adapt the number of stations as they see fit. We are also providing the graphs for both the 5% and 10% tolerance levels (See Appendix B.3). These two other tolerance levels will be useful when demand starts to pick up and the city can now afford to turn away a slightly larger customer base.
Another factor the city should monitor is the utilization of each machine. This is necessary since there are risks to running machines at full capacity. When machines are in continuous use they are more likely to break down, and the rest of the system tends to be extremely dependent and unstable. At a 3% utilization tolerance level we have the following utilization graph:
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Graph 2: Utilization of Level 1 and Level 2 stations as charges per day increases
As demand increases, the utilization of the stations will increase. However, is important to point out that at certain points in the graph utilization declines reflecting the exact point a new station was acquired. When a new station is acquired, the new machine temporarily alleviates the utilization of the entire set of stations until demand catches up again.
We do not recommend running the stations at a utilization rate higher than 90%, as mentioned earlier. Therefore, when demand reaches 7.5 charges per day, the city should not only have the appropriate number of stations (6 according to the graph above), but they should also consider expanding to other facilities in order to capture the increased demand.
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Stage 2: Scalable Growth
New Technologies
As the market for EVs increase, the City of Evanston should consider investing in DC (quick charging) stations, which are already available in the market. This type of charging station is able to charge cars in approximately 30 minutes, making EVs more appealing to customers. Taking into consideration the high cost of the machine, the small number of current demand, and certain compatibility issues with the available electrical vehicles, we recommend the City of Evanston to consider this investment as a future implementation.
Currently the Chicago Metro Area is installing 73 DC charging stations that should be available to the public by the end of 2011. This is why we recommend the City of Evanston to watch the usage of these stations as well as any expansion that might take place. The City of Evanston should make this investment decision in order to keep up with market’s needs. It is important that any decision made is based on the current demand, using the provided chart, which explains the number of machines needed given the demand (See Graph 1).
If such an investment is made, the City of Evanston should consider implementing these stations first in the Maple Garage, since customers who park their cars for a shorter time mostly frequent it, given the amount of surrounding local businesses. Having these stations in the garages will help increase the amount of traffic in the City of Evanston.
Pricing Strategy
With increased demand the CoE might start charging a fee for the use of the charging stations and therefore collect revenue form charging sessions. However, due to the young stage of the technology and the uncertainty of the market, we cannot predict when the CoE can start applying a fee for the use of the charging stations.
We suggest sensitivity to the pricing behavior of other charging station owners in the Chicago area and adjust accordingly. In addition, to assist the CoE in making the right pricing decision when the time comes, we are providing the CoE with matrix tables showing how applying different fees per hour of charging will affect their costs, revenues and profits based on different levels of demand (See tables B.1.3, B.1.4, B.1.5, B.1.6 in the Appendix).
The following two graphs summarize the results of our financial discounted payback analysis considering different levels of fee rates per hour of charge.
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New Places to expand
Given our recommendation of initially installing 2 charging stations, this section will look into new places to expand in the future. For simplicity, this section will ignore payback periods for the initial 2 stations as well as the decision to start collecting fees for users to charge their EV, hence only expected yearly changes in demand would be analyzed.
The original scope of the project included the Sherman Plaza Parking Garage as the second garage where charging stations would be installed. Given the noticeable higher logistical costs involved in installing the stations at that location, we decided to ignore this parking garage from the stage 1 recommendations. As soon as the City of Evanston decides to expand out of the 1800 Maple Avenue garage, our first suggestion would be to install 1 or more stations in the 821 Davis Street garage. The number of stations would depend on the current demand for EV stations, given by our included simulation results. Installing stations in this garage will not only create a more adequate supply for customers, but it will also enable a different customer segment to get easy access to charging. People living in the Sherman Apartment building could get to charge their EVs while being in their apartment, opening up an entire new dynamic to the way charging stations would be used.
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A second option of expansion would be to install charging stations in strategic curbside parking spots around Evanston. This move would also increase the customer base by enabling people who normally do not use parking garages to charge their EVs in a convenient location for them.
Installing parking garages in the rest of the City of Evanston owned parking garages could be considered the last logical step for the completion of this program. The City would also need to keep in mind that a good promotional job for these new stations is a crucial factor for the success of the expansion program. If people do not know they are there, they will not be used. Following the recommended promotional strategies in this report would be an ideal way of getting the same result when adding stations around Evanston.
Metrics for how to expand
One of the goals of our analysis is to provide the CoE with information about how to expand. There are two metrics the city can use to determine when to purchase additional charging stations: blocked customer limits and marginal station benefits.
As long as the focus is on encouraging demand we recommend a 3% blocked customer limit. Under this metric, the CoE purchases stations as needed to ensure that no more than 3% of customers are turned away because stations are in use. Note that we have also included analysis at the 5% and 10% level should the CoE choose to relax this limit.
The second metric is applicable when the City feels demand is on a stable trajectory. At this stage we recommend purchasing stations based on the lost revenue of customers turned away. When this amount exceeds the cost of an additional station it is logical to purchase an additional station. These purchase points are highly sensitive to changes in costs and fees charged by Evanston. For example, a change in electricity costs, or an increase in the willingness-‐to-‐pay of EV owners could both drastically change the results. Therefore we have focused our analysis on providing information for multiple scenarios. This analysis can be seen in the previous sections as well as in the appendix.
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Stage 3: Future Possibilities
Expansion
When the market has increased considerably, requiring more charging stations than existent in Maple and Sherman Garages, we recommend the City of Evanston to consider installing charging stations in other available locations; either within garages or outdoors. This future step is very important in order to increase the market by offering variety in charging locations and potentially increasing commuters in the Evanston area.
New technology
If expansion in outdoor stations takes place, we recommend the City of Evanston look into solar charging stations, which are already on the market. By installing these kinds of stations, the City of Evanston would be contributing to Evanston’s goal of decreasing it’s carbon footprint, as well as help reduce electricity costs throughout the whole system. This would also help brand the City of Evanston as a leader in innovation, gaining prestige throughout surrounding counties, which could help the City create some sort of branding for future projects.
Leasing to Private Companies
To City of Evanston should consider bringing private companies to operate the charging stations. It is likely that at this stage of demand private businesses already play a significant role in the market. This possibility could be implemented when the City of Evanston has broken-‐even from the initial investments. At this stage the City of Evanston would no longer need to dedicate as much attention to encouraging adoption of EV technology, and can turn it over to private enterprise for management. Furthermore, as the number of stations increase they become a larger management issue perhaps better suited to be run by a separate organization. This strategy would create revenue for the City since it would cut off operational expenses as well as potentially earn commissions from the gross revenues the company make, opening other opportunities for the City of Evanston to invest in different projects.
Assessing the State of the Grid
Although it might be considered a distant scenario, the City of Evanston may have to consider the position and capacity of the electric grid. When demand is higher, if several charging stations were added without taking in consideration the state of the grid, the City of Evanston would exceed the available capacity and potentially cause failure in the system, incurring more costs. Looking into alternative sources of electricity (such as solar charging stations) might help alleviate this.
Risks
The Electric Vehicle industry as a whole is entirely new, which brings about additional risks and problems that more established industries do not have. What we consider to be the most important risk is the fact that demand forecasting is extremely limited right now. Many particular factors could influence how the market reacts to EVs, which in turn will have great influence on the demand for EV charging stations. This is one factor that cannot be stressed enough: Demand for EV charging stations have a positive correlation with the demand for EVs.
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Uncertain Demand
The rise in oil prices and the expectancy that they will continue to rise in the future will have a positive impact on the demand for EV charging stations, as consumers realize that making the shift to an EV can save money and is also beneficial to the environment. Although this is a positive thing for the sustainability initiative in Evanston, there is no way to certainly tell how the rise in oil prices will affect the demand for EV charging stations beforehand, in order to be able to make the changes necessary. This risk may lead to an over-‐ or under-‐capacity of charging stations in 1800 Maple Avenue and a tardiness in installing new stations elsewhere.
The financial recommendations put forth in this document rely on several assumptions, each of which is capable of disrupting our results. For example, if the cost of electricity increases, the cost of charging would increase, which in turn would delay the payback period as the City of Evanston would be recouping less money each year than previously expected. Similarly, if there are more frequent illegal parking and overtime tickets on the reserved spaces for the stations, the revenue would increase, reducing the payback period. The possibility of these different scenarios has been taken into account in our calculations, but the fact that there have never been privileged parking spaces for EV charging stations leaves rooms for unexpected consequences during their operation.
Emerging Technology
We are in the first generation of electric vehicles. The possibility of a malfunction or a necessary callback from part of the manufacturer is still relatively high compared to gasoline vehicles. This could affect the demand for stations in two ways: Delivering a major hit to demand if such a situation would occur to a EV model or the existence of too many consumers who decide to wait more time before buying an EV to assure that manufacturers are delivering on their promises.
In a similar vein, because the technology is only now emerging, it is likely to change rapidly and unexpectedly. For this reason, throughout our recommendations we emphasize monitoring technology change in order to avoid making clumsy or inflexible investments that cannot then be recouped.
Variable Market Pricing
Lastly, it is expected that letting customers charge their EV for free will not be the modus operandi for a long time. As more businesses and capital flow into this industry, the costs of operating these stations will be passed on to the consumer by charging a price. This implementation would greatly reduce our projected payback period for the EV charging station investment. Even without charging customers to charge their EV, our model shows that you could make back the investment. The risk here is the fact that the City of Evanston can never be 100% sure of what the payback period will be, since whether or not to charge a price and what price that may be will be dictated by market forces, which may take time to reach price equilibrium.
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Appendices A. Research A.1 Vendors Carbon Day Car Charging Group 350 Green LLC
Business Model Sells charging stations to client. The client takes take care of installation, operating, and maintenance costs.
Leases parking space and takes care of installation, operation and maintenance of the charging stations
Leases parking space and takes care of installation, operation and maintenance of the charging stations
Costs • Product: Approx. $5-‐6K per station
• Installation: Approx. $2,500 for 2 stations
• Billing +Customer service: $15/month per station
• 7.5% of the gross revenue + $0.5 for every transaction
None Depending on project size an upfront investment would be required
Pros • Allows to control pricing and access to stations
• Allows collection of revenue
• Consolidated, relatively large market in the Midwest
• Installers and maintainers (Revcon) already familiar with parking garages
• 6 months trial (starting with 1 station)
• The city would collect 5% from total revenue
• No upfront payment or installation/operating costs
More flexibility in technology used
Cons • Upfront investment is needed, increasing risks
• The City will need to assign workforce for maintaining and operating the stations
• No control over pricing ($3/hour today. $2.5/hour by next year)
• Limited control over logistics (which and how many parking spaces to use)
• No control over pricing (Pricing not available until August 2011)
• Limited control over logistics (which and how many parking spaces to use)
• Possibility of an upfront investment required, thus increasing risk.
• Many partners but few installations done
Product Coulomb Technologies: Level 1, 2, and DC/quick charge stations
Coulomb Technologies: Level 1, 2,
AeroVironment: Level 1 and 2
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Information • Leaders in the Midwest
(150 stations today, 250-‐300 forecasted by the end of 2011)
• Exclusive distributor of Coulomb Technologies for the Midwest
• Warranty on parts and labor: 1 year
• Miami-‐based • Has some projects in Chicago (Equity Residential)
• San Diego-‐based • Won the Chicago project (280 stations by 2011)
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A.2 Technology
Figure 1. Dual Level Charging Station
Charging Station Specifications
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A.3 Current and Upcoming Electric Cars
A.3.1 Plug-‐In Hybrids
Chevy Volt Toyota Prius (in 2012)
Range 640 (40 on battery) 600 (6 on battery)
Top Speed (mph) 100 106
Time to charge 5 2
A.3.2 Electric Cars
Tesla Roadster Nissan Leaf Th!nk City Ford Focus
Range 244 75 124 100
Top Speed (mph)
125 89 65 85
Time to Charge 3.5 8 10 6
A.3.3 Comparison between Plug-‐In Hybrids and Electric Cars
Nissan Leaf (EV) Chevy Volt (PHEV)
Level 1 Level 2 Level 1 Level 2
Battery Capacity (kWh) 24 24 16 16
Charge Voltage 120 220 120 220
Charge Current 15 15 15 15
kW 1.8 3.3 1.8 3.3
Charging time (full charge) 13.3 7.3 8.9 4.8
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B. Analysis B.1 Pricing and Financial Analysis
Financial Model
Our financial model is based on the following sources of revenues and costs and assumptions:
Revenues
• Charging Sessions
Revenue can be collected from applying a fee for the use of the EV charging stations. The charging stations manufactured by Coulomb Technologies allow the CoE to remotely configure the charging fee on a session or hour basis.
• Parking Violation Tickets
Parking tickets will be given based on two types of parking violations:
Overtime Parking: tickets will be given to violators who will fail to remove their vehicle after the 30-‐minute grace period following the time when the vehicle is fully charged.
Illegal Parking: tickets will be given to violators who will park in the spots reserved for EV charging without charging their vehicles
Costs
• EV Charging Stations
The following cost estimates were obtained from Brian Levin, vice-‐president of Carbon Day
Fixed
Coulomb Technologies Charging Station Cost $5,000.00
Installation Cost $2,500.00
Annual Network Fee $180.00
5 yr Extended Warranty $1,300.00
Federal Tax Credit @ 30% $(2,250.00)
Total Cost per Station $6,730.00
Variable
Authorization Fee per Charging Session $0.50
Processing Fee per Charging Session 7.5% of the gross revenue per charging session
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• Electricity
$0.05 per kWh was used in our model since that is the cost of electricity that CoE will fix for the next years with its electricity provider, ComEd.
Based on the preceding cost estimates and the following assumptions on charging sessions, an average charging session lasting 3.4 hours without processing fee applied will cost $0.99 ($0.49 for electricity + $0.5 for the authorization fee) :
[20%*(5 hr)*(1.8 kW)+80%*(3hr)*(3.3 kW)]*[0.05 $/kwH] + $0.5 = $0.99
Assumptions
• Charging sessions
The model assumes that all the demand is met.
Based on the results of the queuing simulations, a single charging session was modeled as follows:
Level 1 Level 2 Probability of occurrence 20% 80% Voltage (V) 120 220 Current (A) 15 15 Power (kW) 1.8 3.3 =Voltage/Current*1000 Charging session (hour) 5 3
• Parking Violation Tickets
Overtime parking
Overtime parking ticket fee $30 Tickets issued 1 every 30 charges Illegal parking Illegal parking ticket fee $200 Tickets issued 1 every 500 charges
Illegal parking tickets are modeled based on the tickets currently given to violators who illegally park on the handicapped parking spaces in our two target garages: Maple and Sherman Plaza.
Overtime Parking tickets are modeled based on the 1-‐hr maximum parking spaces in the Maple garage. As estimated by Mark Turenne, Parking Facilities Supervisor for the CoE, 1 to 3 tickets are issued every week and considering that the Maple garage has 25 1-‐hr maximum parking spaces, a total capacity of 1400 spaces and 5595 cars entering the garage per week, we could estimate that:
A ticket will be given every 3 * (25/1400)*5595 = 33.3 ~ 30 customers
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Financial Results and Analysis
Our financial Analysis was conducted through two different scenarios: Free Charging and Charging for a Fee. Both scenarios present cost, revenue and profit estimates modeled using the demand growth rate of 12% calculated in our demand projection analysis (see Appendix B.2). Also for both scenarios, we conducted a discounted payback analysis using a discount rate of 5%.
Free Charging Scenario
This scenario assumes that the CoE applies no fee for the use of the charging stations.
The following graphs showing the financial results for the Free Charging Scenario are generated using the data reported in table B.1.1
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Discounted Payback Period
1st Station 41 years
2nd Station 51 years
Despite the extremely large discounted payback period, it should be noted that even without applying a fee to EV drivers for the use of the stations, we estimate that the CoE will incur a positive discounted operational profit meaning that the we forecast that the cost of electricity and additional operational costs of operating the stations will be completely covered by the revenue generated from enforcing parking violation tickets.
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Table B.1.1: Financial data (Free Charging Scenario)
Feasibility Study for Electric Vehicle Charging Stations
24
Charging for a Fee Scenario
For this scenario, we conducted sensitivity analysis to investigate how applying different fees per hour of charging will affect costs, revenues and profits based on different levels of demand. The following graphs are generated from the financial data contained in tables B.1.5 andie B.1.6
Feasibility Study for Electric Vehicle Charging Stations
25
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&'!,.*",$)%
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3-,2
#.#++$-)
&'''
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&'!-.-(!$#(
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&'"%.%%+$(%
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&'
%&#$'9:'0;""0<"$0=>?
$
Table B.1.2: Yearly Revenues without Parking Violation Tickets
YEARLY REVENUE with Parking Violation Tickets
Feasibility Study for Electric Vehicle Charging Stations
26
!"#$
%&#$'"()*#
+,-..
/00000000000
,-12
/00000000000
,-2.
/00000000000
,-32
/00000000000
1-..
/00000000000
1-12
/00000000000
1-2.
/00000000000
1-32
/00000000000
4-..
/00000000000
4-12
/00000000000
4-2.
/00000000000
4-32
/00000000000
5-..
/00000000000
5-12
/00000000000
,.-1.
!"#$%&$
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!#+,%*$
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!),&%)#
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!'-$"(%+#
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1.-14
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4.-12
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!,",%#)
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!'-$)&%,#
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!'-("(%")
!'-"''%'"
!'-",+%,+
!'-&*,%*#
5.-16
!#$'%$+
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!*),%#*
!)*)%(+
!,#*%$(
!+&&%)*
!'-$""%&+
!'-'((%("
!'-('$%+*
!'-(++%)$
!'-",,%&"
!'-&))%'*
!'-#*#%+$
!'-*#&%*"
2.-41
!#*&%#&
!**&%#'
!)*&%&,
!,*&%&*
!+*&%&"
!'-$*&%&$
!'-'*&%")
!'-(*&%"&
!'-"*&%"'
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!'-)*&%($
!'-,*&%')
7.-47
!*"*%$"
!)&,%**
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!+)"%+"
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!'-"''%,(
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!'-*&+%)'
!'-)*(%"&
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!(-'$$%("
3.-5,
!)'*%#,
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!'-*$&%,"
!'-)"'%)"
!'-,#,%*(
!'-+,#%#(
!(-''(%&'
!(-("+%"$
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8.-57
!,$)%"(
!+#$%(,
!'-$+"%(#
!'-("*%('
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!'-**#%'$
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!'-+#'%$"
!(-$+"%++
!(-("*%+#
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!(-**#%,&
6.-21
!+$+%#*
!'-$)$%*(
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!'-"+(%)*
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!(-$")%$"
!(-'+,%$+
!(-"#+%'*
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!(-,&(%"*
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,..-28
!'-$(&%)&
!'-($*%($
!'-",)%**
!'-#*+%'"
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!'-+"(%$*
!(-''"%#(
!(-(+&%+,
!(-&)*%&#
!(-*#)%+'
!(-,"+%",
!"-$($%,&
!"-($(%"$
!"-","%))
,,.-77
!'-'#&%#$
!'-"#,%+#
!'-#*"%"+
!'-)*)%,"
!'-+)(%(,
!(-')*%)(
!(-",'%')
!(-#,#%*'
!(-)+$%$#
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!"-*$)%,"
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,1.-35
!'-"$$%)$
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!'-)*'%")
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,5.-65
!'-*#$%++
!'-+&"%"*
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!&-'*#%))
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!*-#&,%)+
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1.,-64
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1,1-,3
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111-52
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141-37
!&-,(,%(+
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!'&-(""%"+
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154-,.
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174-65
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135-55
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!'&-+)(%$*
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!((-)"'%+)
!(&-(,"%+#
!(#-,"#%+"
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!(,-+"+%+$
162-75
!+-,)"%+,
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!'#-''+%#"
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!',-*'*%#*
!($-"*#%$,
!((-''"%#+
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!(#-*'$%*"
!()-"#+%'#
!(+-'$)%**
!"$-,#*%',
!"(-*$&%)$
4.7-42
!''-'(&%")
!'"-$+&%"'
!'#-$*&%(#
!')-$"&%'+
!'+-$$&%'"
!($-+)&%$*
!((-+&&%$$
!(&-+'"%+&
!(*-,,"%,,
!(,-,#"%,(
!"$-,("%)*
!"(-)+"%)$
!"&-)*"%*&
!"*-)""%#,
4,3-,2
!'(-#""%'$
!'&-)#(%#$
!'*-+)'%+$
!'+-'+'%"'
!('-&'$%)'
!("-*"$%''
!(#-,&+%#'
!(,-$*,%+(
!"$-(,,%"(
!"(-#$)%)(
!"&-)()%'(
!"*-+&*%#"
!"+-'*#%+"
!&'-",#%""
418-.7
!'&-'($%((
!'*-*($%*,
!'+-'('%'&
!('-*('%#+
!(&-'((%$#
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!"*-*(&%""
!"+-'(&%),
!&'-*(#%(&
!&&-'(#%)$
!&*-*(*%'#
%&#$'9:'0;""0<"$0=>?
$
Table B.1.3: Yearly Revenues with Parking Violation Tickets
YEARLY REVENUE with Parking Violation Tickets
Feasibility Study for Electric Vehicle Charging Stations
27
!"#$
%&#$'"()*#
+,-..
/00000000000
,-12
/00000000000
,-2.
/00000000000
,-32
/00000000000
1-..
/00000000000
1-12
/00000000000
1-2.
/00000000000
1-32
/00000000000
4-..
/00000000000
4-12
/00000000000
4-2.
/00000000000
4-32
/00000000000
5-..
/00000000000
5-12
/00000000000
,.-1.
!"#$%&'
!(')%"*
!()+%,*
!+("%**
!+&$%($
!#+,%)$
!,*+%'&
!,,'%#&
!)'&%$&
!)),%()
!&((%))
!&$'%')
!$+&%#,
!'-**#%$,
1.-14
!"$"%)'
!(#)%()
!+""%*+
!+&,%)*
!##'%()
!,',%*(
!,&*%)*
!)+#%(,
!&'*%*"
!&)+%,$
!$($%(#
!'-**+%*"
!'-*,&%,&
!'-'((%(#
4.-12
!("$%))
!+*"%,(
!+)#%+&
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!,"'%'$
!,$+%*+
!),,%&$
!&($%)#
!$'"%,*
!$&#%+,
!'-*#&%('
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!'-"*+%*"
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5.-16
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!+#(%,'
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!,')%))
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!$+,%*$
!'-*"&%')
!'-''*%"#
!'-'$"%((
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2.-41
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!,*(%#(
!,$,%**
!)&&%+&
!&&*%$#
!$)(%+"
!'-*,#%$*
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!'-"#*%&+
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!'-#"&%",
!'-,"*%)+
7.-47
!+)'%#$
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!,)$%$,
!)&+%'+
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!'-#'(%+(
!'-,')%,'
!'-)"'%)$
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3.-5,
!#('%('
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!&&(%++
!'-***%&"
!'-''&%"*
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!'-+)*%((
!'-#&)%)*
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!'-&""%+,
!'-$($%&(
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8.-57
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,1.-35
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!"-,,&%&&
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!#-*(#%(#
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,7,-1.
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!+-"$$%$+
!+-,+(%"*
!+-$&,%+)
!#-("$%)+
!#-,)(%**
!,-*',%")
,3,-42
!'-)#*%#&
!"-'()%('
!"-#"+%*#
!"-$'*%)&
!(-"$)%#"
!(-,&+%"#
!+-*)*%$$
!+-+#)%)"
!+-&++%+,
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!,-**+%,)
!,-($'%+*
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,8,-21
!'-$)"%",
!"-+*)%$)
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111-52
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141-37
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174-65
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135-55
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182-..
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162-75
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4.7-42
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!(*-''+%#$
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4,3-,2
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418-.7
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!+*-#()%#+
%&#$'9:'0;""0<"$0=>?
$
Table B.1.4: Yearly Operating Profits
YEARLY OPERATING PROFITS
Feasibility Study for Electric Vehicle Charging Stations
28
!"#$
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/00000000000
,-12
/00000000000
,-2.
/00000000000
,-32
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141-37
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124-2.
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174-65
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162-75
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4.7-42
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4,3-,2
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!#-$*"%'$
!)-"(#%#)
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418-.7
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!&-(*,%'(
!&-*)&%#"
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!#-*"#%"&
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!*-','%##
!*-)*)%,#
!$-')(%")
!$-)&*%*)
!,-'""%')
!,-)'$%#*
%&#$'9:'0;""0<"$0=>?
$
Table B.1.5: Yearly Discounted Operating Profits
YEARLY DISCOUN
TED OPERATING PROFITS
Feasibility Study for Electric Vehicle Charging Stations
29
Table B.1.6: Yearly Discounted Cum
ulative Profits
!"#$%
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/00000000000
1-32
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TED CUMULATIVE PROFITS
Feasibility Study for Electric Vehicle Charging Stations
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Electricity Usage and Cost
B.2 Demand Growth
The young stage of the technology and the uncertainty of this new market suggested us using a conservative approach to forecast future demand growth for EVs. Our forecasted growth is based on two published forecasts of EV sales in the US: an optimistic forecast (blue line) and a pessimist forecast (red line) with calculated annual growth rate of 17.35% and 10.12% respectively. Our sales forecast for EVs (green line) was obtained by weighting the pessimistic forecast by 75% and the optimistic forecast by 20% This resulted in an annual exponential demand growth rate of 11.9235%.
As the following graph shows, our forecast predicts around 235,000 EVs by 2015 nationwide. This estimate is 77% lower than the President Obama’s plan of putting 1 million EVs in the streets by 2015. However, due to the promising but very uncertain market for EVs, we believe that a conservative approach might provide the CoE with a better and less misleading picture of the future outlook of the market and related financial analysis.
Optimistic Forecast: Electric Power Research Institute © 2007.
Pessimistic Forecast: Annual Energy Outlook USDOE © 2010.
Source: http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/rstanfield/CCCLGLP2-‐148080-‐ComEd%20PEV%20Initial%20Assessment_1012151.pdf
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Using our forecasted weighted average demand growth rate of 11.93%, we estimated the demand of charging sessions in our targeted parking garage in Evanston. The initial value of charges per day was set to a reasonable value of 0.2 corresponding to 7 charges per month. The forecast is shown below.
Feasibility Study for Electric Charging Stations in Evanston 33
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B.3 Queuing Model
Explanation of queuing model
In order to determine the optimal number of stations in each garage we followed the two criteria below:
o Reducing the amount of blocked customers: We created three tolerance levels 3%, 5% and 10% of blocked customers. In each model once the number of blocked customers exceeded the respective tolerance level, we added an additional charging station in order to meet the extra demand.
o Determining the utilization of resources: We monitored the utilization of each charging station. However, we did not set any condition on acquiring an additional station based on this criterion. This information was only acquired for the City of Evanston to reference when running their charging stations.
Since demand was uncertain we simulated different arrival rates. In this manner, the City of Evanston only need to monitor charges per day and adapt the number of optimal station according to the analysis provided.
2
3 1
3 2 2
4
4
4
4
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Using the Arena simulation software, we recreated the decision process electric car users will go through in order to charge their cars inside the parking garages. The system is explained below:
1. Arrivals: This module created the entities that are going to go through the system. In this case the entities are the electric cars. This module also simulates the specified inter arrival rate.
2. Decision modules: Level 2 available? This module determines if the level 2 charging station is being used or not. If it is not
being used then the module sends the car through the “true” exit onto the charging station level 2 (Stage 3 -‐ Center Level 2). If it is not available then it goes to Level 1 available? This is the same type of module but checks if level 1 charging stations are being used. If they are not being used then the electric car goes out the “true” exit onto Level 1 or Leave module. On the other hand if it is not available then it goes out the system through the Blocked customer’s module.
Level 1 or Leave module: This module it’s a decision module that according to a specified percentage sends electric vehicles onto level 1 charging stations and others out of the system. This module represents the small amount of customers that are only looking to charge on level 2 stations and therefore leave the system if level 2 is not available. Since there is no downside on just plugging in your electric vehicle regardless of the available charging level (free charging), we assumed that 90% of electric cars are going to plug in to level 1 charging stations and only 10% will prefer level 2 and leave the system.
3. Process modules: Center Level 2: This module simulates the charging process of a level 2 charging station. We assumed a
triangular distribution with a minimum of zero hours, a most likely time of 3 hours and a maximum charging time of 8 hours. The min is when you decide to not charge, the max. was determined by the car currently in the market, which takes the longest to charge in level 2 (Nissan Leaf); and the most likely was the average time people spent parked in the Maple Garages (Data from the garage).
Center Level 1: This module simulates the charging process of a level 1 charging station. The triangular distribution used here was a minimum of zero, a most likely time of 3 hours and a maximum of 15 hours.
4. Dispose modules; Charged 2 and leave, charged 1 and leave, prefer level 2 and blocked customers: These are all dispose
modules which delete the entity from the system. It simulates when a car leaves the system either charged, blocked or by preference.
Model Assumptions o No waiting time to retry to use station. Since very few people will actually wait in their cars for
hours in order to plug in. They would just rather look for another charging station in another place or simply not charge.
o 2 charging spots, one station o Sherman Plaza: 30% of the customers stay between 1-‐2 hours. o We assume the mean time people stay in the garage is 3 hours. We added one hour to the most
likely estimate above, assuming people that are charging will stay a little longer in order to get the extra charge.
o We believe that customers that find level 2 full will take advantage of level 1 because they can only benefit from charging (the charge is free) and they will probably be back before they are required to leave. 90% retention rate.
o Cycle length: 1 month. 50 replications. o Charging process is simulated by a triangular distribution (Min, Avg, Max)
§ Level 1: (0,3,15) § Level2: (0,3,8)
Feasibility Study for Electric Charging Stations in Evanston 35
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Results
3% Blockage
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5% Blockage
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10% Blockage