idf risk modeling and mapping group goals, strategy, and ... · risk modeling and mapping group...

IDF Risk Modeling and Mapping GroupGoals, strategy, and progress update

Claire Souch on behalf of Ian Branagan September 14th 2017

Insurance Development Forum Workgroups

2

Risk Modelling

and Mapping

Group

Insurance Regulation

and Resilience

policies

Technical Advisory Facility

Microinsurance

Indicators and development

metrics for resilience and

insurance

Insurance Investment

and Development

Insurance Education and

Communication

The Insurance Development Forum (IDF), a public-private partnership between leaders of the United Nations (UN), the World Bank Group, and the insurance industry

Insurance Development Forum Workgroups

3

Risk Modelling

and Mapping

Group

Insurance Regulation

and Resilience

policies

Technical Advisory Facility

Microinsurance

Indicators and development

metrics for resilience and

insurance

Insurance Investment

and Development

Insurance Education and

Communication

The Insurance Development Forum (IDF), a public-private partnership between leaders of the United Nations (UN), the World Bank Group, and the insurance industry

“The IDF is committed to contributing to achieving the G7 InsuResilience target of 400 million of the most vulnerable people in developing countries being provided with increased access to direct or indirect insurance coverage against the impacts of climate change and related natural catastrophes by 2020.”

Risk Modeling and Mapping Group Work Streams

4

Catalogue Risk Models

Strategy for filling the

Model and Data gaps

Understand the Problem

space

Develop standards for data & model

interoperability

Develop standards for data

validation

End-to-End Development of

Open Risk Model for 2/3 Pilot Countries

Goal of the RMMG is to further the development of models, data standards and methods of interoperability, and to enable greater understanding, use and availability of risk data and models.

Using methods and practices that are repeatable, scalable, efficient and that reduce duplication.

Risk Modeling and Mapping Group Work Streams

5


Strategy for filling the

Model and Data gaps


space

Develop standards for data & model

interoperability

Develop standards for data

validation

End-to-End Development of

Open Risk Model for 2/3 Pilot Countries

Goal of the RMMG is to further the development of models, data standards and methods of interoperability, and to enable greater understanding, use and availability of risk data and models.

Using methods and practices that are repeatable, scalable, efficient and that reduce duplication.

Focus is on models, tools and data which are directly applicable to improving the provision of insurance, and insurance style, contingent risk capital solutions as well as to the cause of improving the resiliency of populations and economies to the effects of natural catastrophes.

Risk Modeling and Mapping Group What has been achieved so far & priority actions

6


Exposure Data

standards ongoing


space

Interoperability conversation

ongoing

Developed strategy proposal

Pilot projects with TAF/German

government ongoing

Collaboration, leverage, connections….

Risk model CatalogueIn partnership with OasisHub, developed and maintain ‘Catrisktools’, a free and open access global directory of catastrophe risk assessment tools. Comprehensive listing of available commercial and non-commercial catastrophe risk models, with information on key model attributes.


7


Exposure Data

standards ongoing


space


ongoing



government ongoing



Creation of online directory to help ‘Understand the problem space’ Searchable online directory of user questions on disaster risk data and modelling, each with a corresponding response. Free and open-access expert guidance on catastrophe risk modelling for financial protection. Early stages


8


Exposure Data

standards ongoing


space


ongoing



government ongoing




Development of a globally applicable multi-hazard exposure databaseRMMG members lead and advise on the development of a new multi-hazard database schema for global exposure data, being developed under the GFDRR-DFID Challenge Fund.


9


Exposure Data

standards ongoing


space


ongoing



government ongoing





Data standards, & model validation, interoperabilityFacilitating and supporting discussion on development of model and data standards, model validation, and on improving model and data interoperability.


10


Exposure Data

standards ongoing


space


ongoing



government ongoing





Data standards, & model validation, interoperabilityFacilitating and supporting discussion on development of model and data standards, model validation, and on improving model and data interoperability.

Pilot Projects with KFW and Technical Advisory Facility (TAF)Supporting the Development of specific pilot projects from the KFW Solutions fund of the BMZ in Germany. Pilot countries include Vietnam, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan

11

Structures and

Resources

Leverage and

Collaborate

Inter-operability

Data and model

Standards

Connections

Pilots

Strategic programme proposed by the RMMG is to provide comprehensive coverage and inclusive access to risk models across un-modelled emerging and developing countries.

The Challenges: Currently the development of models and the data to feed them is demand led on a case-by-case basis. Resulting in : • Absence of models and data• Duplication of effort, inadequate sharing and poor re-usability• Lack of standards for model and data creation and usage. Fragmented and inconsistent

approaches from model developers and users. Leading to uncertain quality and confidence

Risk Modeling and Mapping Group Strategic Model and Data Proposal

12

Structures and

Resources

Leverage and

Collaborate

Inter-operability

Data and model

Standards

Connections

Pilots




How the RMMG will address these challenges: • Connecting with experts and practitioners from Industry, governments, international

institutions, NGO’s and academia. Global Partnerships (DFiD, WB, BMZ, IDF TAF, others), GFDRR ‘Challenge’ fund, OASIS community, NERC, UKMO, RADRR, Academia, Industry Community, Public sector Community, Lloyd’s DRF, and others

• Propagating the interoperability and standards agenda through hosted workshops and contributing to various industry/public initiatives

• Deliver planned activities and key goals through the World Bank, DFID and KFW global partnership mechanism.


13

Structures and

Resources

Leverage and

Collaborate

Inter-operability

Data and model

Standards

Connections

Pilots




How the RMMG will address these challenges: • Connecting with experts and practitioners from Industry, governments, international

institutions, NGO’s and academia. Global Partnerships (DFiD, WB, BMZ, IDF TAF, others), GFDRR ‘Challenge’ fund, OASIS community, NERC, UKMO, RADRR, Academia, Industry Community, Public sector Community, Lloyd’s DRF, and others

• Propagating the interoperability and standards agenda through hosted workshops and contributing to various industry/public initiatives

• Deliver planned activities and key goals through the World Bank, DFID and KFW global partnership mechanism.

Key initial deliverable for Strategic model build programme: • Supporting KFW Solutions fund and BMZ/TAF pilot projects to Identify existing models and

gaps where modelling is required.


OASIS Platform for Asia Risk Assessment

• Proposal to build two open-access cat models for:• Bangladesh Cyclone

• Philippines flood

15

Example: The Philippines

16

Mr. Augusto Hidalgo - President and Chief Executive Officer of National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines (NRCP)

Example: The Philippines

17

20

A Template For Other Countries?

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This presentation is for information purposes only and contains non-binding indications. Any opinions or views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Swiss Re. Swiss Re makes no warranties or representations as to the accuracy, comprehensiveness, timeliness or suitability of this presentation for a particular purpose. Anyone shall at its own risk interpret and employ this presentation without relying on it in isolation. In no event will Swiss Re be liable for any loss or damages of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages, arising out of or in connection with the use of this presentation.

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