Identifying new migrant populations in UK cities

David Owen and Audrey Lenoël

Background and aims of paper

• International migration is now a major influence on population change in the UK. The population composition of particular localities is changing substantially due to rapid economic or asylum migration.

• Local authorities and economic development agencies (amongst others) need up-to-date information on the ‘new incomer’ populations in order to plan the provision of services and ensure their delivery reflects the composition of the population.

• However, existing official statistics are poor at identifying short-term population change and change in the composition of the population: an “information vacuum”.

• This paper presents some findings from local case studies in:

(1)Birmingham, West Midlands - estimating emerging refugee populations; and

(2) Lincolnshire - estimating the new migrant workforce

Components of UK population change, 1991-2001

-50

0

50

100

150

200

1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01

Natural Increase

Net migration & other changes

Net immigration to the UK by world region, 1995-2004

- 50.0

+ 0.0

+ 50.0

+ 100.0

+ 150.0

+ 200.0

+ 250.0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Other

New Commonwealth

Old Commonwealth

EU

Existing data base

• Census - migrants, ethnic group, country of birth; BUT pre 2004 expansion of EU

• LFS and APS - demographic characteristics and socio-economic variables

• These sources do NOT record information on immigration status

• Statistics produced by Home Office National Asylum Support Service (NASS)

• Mid Year Estimates of population

• ONS Vital Statistics

CASE STUDY 1:Asylum seekers in the West Midlands

by nationality (from WMCARS)

Iraqi14%

Other African12%

Iranian11%

Afghani9%

Somali8%

Congo DRC7%

Pakistani7%

Kosovan4%

Zimbabwean4%

Sudanese3%

Eritrean2%

European2%

Other Middle East3%

Romanian3%

Turkish3%

Other Asian3%

Former USSR2%

Former Yugoslavian3% S. American

1%

NASS placements of asylum seekersin Birmingham

Concentrated in areas of:• relative deprivation• high percentages of

population from ethnic minorities

Potential data sources on asylum seekers and ethnic minorities from service providers

• Housing providers - social housing providers collect information on their tenancies; limited local authority information

• Applications for Housing Benefit and Council Tax benefit• Local Education Authorities - Pupil Level Annual

Schools’ Census (PLASC)• Jobcentre Plus and the Department for Work and

Pensions• National Health Service - Hospital Episode Statistics;

introduction of ethnic monitoring to GP registrations

Estimates of refugees in the West Midlands(from WMCARS)

• NASS clients dispersed to the region and granted leave to remain = 18,780

• Home Office estimates that 25% of all refugees from other regions enter the West Midlands, and a tiny percentage leave = 39,073

• Adjustment to include dependants in the above at 15% of total = 8,678

• Estimates of refugees in the UK before the dispersal policy began who are in the West Midlands = 10,000 to 15,000

• Accuracy of estimates depends on validity of assumptions - the smaller the geographical area, the less valid assumptions are likely to be

CASE STUDY 2:Economic migrants in Lincolnshire

• Rural area - substantial number of low skill jobs in agriculture and food processing, unattractive to local residents

• Key data sources:

(1) National Insurance numbers (NINOs) - but confidentiality constraints mean limited disaggregation available at local level

(2) Worker Registration Scheme (WRS) for A8 nationals - disaggregated by country of origin, industry, occupation, postcode district

National Insurance registrationsby country of origin

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Conclusions

• Main sources of statistical data are not keeping pace with the changing nature of international migration streams to the UK and their impacts on local areas

• Administrative data can provide some useful insights

• Available data provide only a partial picture of the new migrant population - especially at local level

• There is a need for more detailed, timely and flexible information