identifying at-risk students
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Identifying At-Risk Students. Gary R. Pike Information Management & Institutional Research Indiana University Purdue University Indianapolis. Using Student Groups. At both the University of Missouri and Mississippi State we made use of student groups in enrollment management. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Identifying At-Risk Identifying At-Risk StudentsStudents
Gary R. PikeGary R. Pike
Information Management & Institutional Information Management & Institutional ResearchResearch
Indiana University Purdue University Indiana University Purdue University IndianapolisIndianapolis
Using Student GroupsUsing Student Groups
At both the University of Missouri and At both the University of Missouri and Mississippi State we made use of Mississippi State we made use of student groups in enrollment student groups in enrollment management.management.
We used these groups to assess the We used these groups to assess the effectiveness of our recruitment effectiveness of our recruitment efforts, advise students about efforts, advise students about appropriate courses, and assess appropriate courses, and assess progress in improving retention.progress in improving retention.
Creating Student GroupsCreating Student Groups
My preference is to use “predicted My preference is to use “predicted GPA” to create student groups.GPA” to create student groups.
– It is empirically derived from a measure of It is empirically derived from a measure of student success (GPA).student success (GPA).
– It uses multiple measures of incoming It uses multiple measures of incoming quality (e.g., SAT/ACT & High School GPA).quality (e.g., SAT/ACT & High School GPA).
– It creates a “sliding scale” classification It creates a “sliding scale” classification system where low performance in one system where low performance in one area (SAT/ACT scores) can be offset by area (SAT/ACT scores) can be offset by high performance in another area (H.S. high performance in another area (H.S. grades).grades).
First Things FirstFirst Things First
In order to create student groups, In order to create student groups, you have to:you have to:
– First, create groups based on existing First, create groups based on existing cohorts of students; andcohorts of students; and
– Second, validate the groups against the Second, validate the groups against the performance of the students in the performance of the students in the cohorts.cohorts.
Creating Student GroupsCreating Student Groups
In order to create student groups, I In order to create student groups, I used all first-time, full-time freshmen used all first-time, full-time freshmen (21 or younger) who began in Fall (21 or younger) who began in Fall 2005.2005.
I only included those students that had I only included those students that had complete data forcomplete data for– Freshman-Year GPAFreshman-Year GPA– ACT/SATACT/SAT– High School Grade Point AverageHigh School Grade Point Average
Creating Student GroupsCreating Student Groups
IUPUI first-year GPA was regressed IUPUI first-year GPA was regressed onon– SAT/ACT andSAT/ACT and– HS GPAHS GPA
Based on the regression results, Based on the regression results, predicted GPAs were calculated for predicted GPAs were calculated for each student.each student.
Predicted GPA ResultsPredicted GPA Results
Model 1:Model 1:
PGPA = –0.730 + 0.001 * SAT + 0.838 * PGPA = –0.730 + 0.001 * SAT + 0.838 * HSGPAHSGPARR22 = 0.23 = 0.23
Creating Student GroupsCreating Student Groups
Quartiles of predicted GPAs were Quartiles of predicted GPAs were used to create four student groups.used to create four student groups.– A fifth student group consists of those A fifth student group consists of those
students with no predicted GPA.students with no predicted GPA.
In order to evaluate the predictive In order to evaluate the predictive validity of the student groups, I validity of the student groups, I looked at differences in retention and looked at differences in retention and success rates by advising group.success rates by advising group.– Conditional admits was used as a Conditional admits was used as a
baseline.baseline.
Student GroupsStudent Groups
Student Groups (Quartiles)Student Groups (Quartiles)
– Group 1:Group 1: 3.211 – 4.0003.211 – 4.000– Group 2:Group 2: 2.832 – 3.2102.832 – 3.210– Group 3:Group 3: 2.530 – 2.8312.530 – 2.831– Group 4:Group 4: 0.000 – 2.5290.000 – 2.529
Outcome MeasuresOutcome Measures
Retention:Retention:– Students who began in Fall 2005 and Students who began in Fall 2005 and
were still enrolled in Fall 2006were still enrolled in Fall 2006
Success: GPA >= 2.00Success: GPA >= 2.00– First-year GPA of 2.00 or greater.First-year GPA of 2.00 or greater.
Student Groups & Conditional Student Groups & Conditional AdmitsAdmits
Regular AdmitRegular Admit ConditionalConditional
Group 1Group 1 98.7%98.7% 1.3%1.3%
Group 2Group 2 92.0%92.0% 8.0%8.0%
Group 3Group 3 65.8%65.8% 34.2%34.2%
Group 4Group 4 21.8%21.8% 78.2%78.2%
Predictive Validity - Predictive Validity - RetentionRetention
RetainedRetained Not RetainedNot Retained
Group 1Group 1 74.6%74.6% 25.4%25.4%
Group 2Group 2 71.5%71.5% 28.5%28.5%
Group 3Group 3 57.5%57.5% 42.5%42.5%
Group 4Group 4 54.1%54.1% 45.9%45.9%
Retention of Regular Admits = 68.4%; Conditional Admits = 55.5%
Predictive Validity: GPA Predictive Validity: GPA ≥≥ 2.002.00
GE 2.00GE 2.00 LT 2.00LT 2.00
Group 1Group 1 90.7%90.7% 9.3%9.3%
Group 2Group 2 79.8%79.8% 20.2%20.2%
Group 3Group 3 65.5%65.5% 34.5%34.5%
Group 4Group 4 55.2%55.2% 44.8%44.8%
GPA ≥ 2.00 for Regular Admits = 79.2%; Conditional Admits = 58.3%
Success Rates by Predicted Success Rates by Predicted GPAGPA
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
<2.00 2.05 2.10 2.15 2.20 2.25 2.30 2.35 2.40
Predicted GPA
Pro
port
ion <
2.0
0
GPA < 2.00
Numbers of At-Risk Numbers of At-Risk StudentsStudents
28 3850
76
110
137160
200
254
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
< 2.00 2.05 2.1 2.15 2.2 2.25 2.3 2.35 2.4
Setting A Cut ScoreSetting A Cut Score
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
< 2.00 2.05 2.10 2.15 2.20 2.25 2.30 2.35 2.40
Predicted GPA
Nu
mb
er
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Pro
po
rtio
n
Number Success
A Multivariate AnalysisA Multivariate Analysis
Success in college is a result of a Success in college is a result of a variety of factors.variety of factors.
Important to try to isolate the unique Important to try to isolate the unique contributions of those factors to contributions of those factors to student success.student success.
Multivariate analyses (logistic Multivariate analyses (logistic regression) can be used to identify regression) can be used to identify the unique contributions and relative the unique contributions and relative importance of factors contributing to importance of factors contributing to student success.student success.
Factors Associated with Factors Associated with SuccessSuccess
GenderGender
First-Generation StudentFirst-Generation Student
Institutional Commitment (Intent to Institutional Commitment (Intent to Transfer)Transfer)
Amount of Time Spent WorkingAmount of Time Spent Working
Student GroupsStudent GroupsEthnicity (minority status) was not significantly related to student success.
ResultsResults
BB Prob.Prob. ΔΔPPConstant (Intercept)Constant (Intercept) 2.7522.752 0.9400.940
Male StudentMale Student ––0.2700.270 0.9230.923 ––0.0170.017
First-GenerationFirst-Generation ––0.4520.452 0.9090.909 ––0.0310.031
Intend to TransferIntend to Transfer ––0.2160.216 0.9270.927 ––0.0130.013
Intend Work 20+ Intend Work 20+ HoursHours
––0.5440.544 0.9010.901 ––0.0390.039
Group 2Group 2 ––0.7670.767 0.8790.879 ––0.0610.061
Group 3Group 3 ––1.5401.540 0.7710.771 ––0.1690.169
Group 4Group 4 ––1.8951.895 0.7020.702 ––0.2380.238
Probabilities of SuccessProbabilities of Success Overall probability of success (i.e., GPA Overall probability of success (i.e., GPA ≥ ≥
2.00) for the sample: 2.00) for the sample: 0.7180.718..
The probability of success for a female, The probability of success for a female, second generation student, in Group 1, who second generation student, in Group 1, who intends to graduate from IUPUI, and intends intends to graduate from IUPUI, and intends to work 20 hours per week or less: to work 20 hours per week or less: 0.9400.940..
The probability of success for a male, first-The probability of success for a male, first-generation student, in Group 4, who is not generation student, in Group 4, who is not certain he will graduate from IUPUI, and certain he will graduate from IUPUI, and intends to work more than 20 hours per intends to work more than 20 hours per week: week: 0.3490.349..
Grades, Financial Aid, & Grades, Financial Aid, & RetentionRetention
Outcome Measure: Fall-to-Fall Outcome Measure: Fall-to-Fall Retention.Retention.
PredictorsPredictors– First-Generation StudentFirst-Generation Student– Intent to TransferIntent to Transfer– Financial Need ($1,000)Financial Need ($1,000)– Total Gift Aid ($1,000)Total Gift Aid ($1,000)– Total Loans ($1,000)Total Loans ($1,000)– GPA < 2.00GPA < 2.00
ResultsResults
BB Prob.Prob. ΔΔPPConstantConstant 1.4601.460 0.8120.812
First-Generation First-Generation StudentStudent
––0.1570.157 0.7860.786 ––0.0260.026
Intends to TransferIntends to Transfer ––0.3540.354 0.7510.751 ––0.0610.061
GPA < 2.00GPA < 2.00 ––2.1202.120 0.3410.341 ––0.5260.526
Financial Need ($1,000)Financial Need ($1,000) ––0.0170.017 0.8090.809 ––0.0030.003
Total Gift Aid ($1,000)Total Gift Aid ($1,000) 0.0390.039 0.8170.817 0.0050.005
Total Loans ($1,000)Total Loans ($1,000) ––0.0500.050 0.8040.804 ––0.0080.008
Probability of Being Probability of Being RetainedRetained
Overall probability of being retained: Overall probability of being retained: 0.6330.633..
The probability of being retained if The probability of being retained if the student is second generation, the student is second generation, intends to graduate from IUPUI, has intends to graduate from IUPUI, has no financial need, no gift aid, no no financial need, no gift aid, no loans, and has a first-year GPA of loans, and has a first-year GPA of 2.00 of greater: 2.00 of greater: 0.8120.812..
Effects of Financial AidEffects of Financial Aid
The probability of being retained if the student is second The probability of being retained if the student is second generation, intends to graduate from IUPUI, has no generation, intends to graduate from IUPUI, has no financial need, no gift aid, no loans, and has a first-year financial need, no gift aid, no loans, and has a first-year GPA of 2.00 of greater: GPA of 2.00 of greater: 0.8120.812..
Need=$15,000; Gift=$5,000; Loans=$10,000: Need=$15,000; Gift=$5,000; Loans=$10,000: 0.7110.711..
Need=$15,000; Gift=$7,500; Loans=$7,500: Need=$15,000; Gift=$7,500; Loans=$7,500: 0.7540.754..
Need=$15,000; Gift=$10,000; Loans=$5,000: Need=$15,000; Gift=$10,000; Loans=$5,000: 0.7930.793..
Need=$10,000; Gift=$0; Loans=$10,000: Need=$10,000; Gift=$0; Loans=$10,000: 0.6880.688..