identification of plausible futures
TRANSCRIPT
S2.6 Define the states of the driving forcesS2.7 Build up scenarios
S3.8 From scenarios to action
S0.1 Define the limits of the system
S1.2 Identify the forces of changeS1.3 Define the forces of changeS1.4 Measure their mutual influences S1.5 Unveiling the driving forces
S0 – Defining the system
S1 – Identification of the forces shaping the future
S2 – Identification of plausible futures
S3 – Definition of a strategy
Detailed steps
2
Objective - define possible future states of the driving forces
Method
Group discussion
“Brainstorming”
Output
Contrasted and mutually exclusive states for each driving force
S2.6 Define the states of the driving forces
3
A state is an hypothesis about what could happen to a force; it is a description of this force in the future
Several states are considered including ruptures
For each force, the states must be contrasted and mutually exclusive (two states cannot happen simultaneously)
What is a state?
4
Knowledge about the force of change is necessary Document each force of change about its past situation, its
evolution up today, what made it change, and how it could change in the future
Consider trends and ruptures Think about desirable and undesirable states
Think about what could probably happen (the trend)
Think about other possibilities
Be creative…
How to define states?
5
Draw a table with the driving forces in the first column and space for the states in the next columns
Take the first driving force and distribute colored cards
Write one state per card according to the color, for exple:pink= desirable grey=not desirable blue=trend yellow=rupture
Collect all cards and display them on a wall (grouping)
Discuss the cards until you reach a reasonable number of states (2-6) by ensuring that they are contrasted and mutually exclusive
Write the states in the corresponding line of the driving force
Repeat for the next driving force until completed
How to do it as a group?
6Support material: S2.6 Methodological Note
Example of states (Mayotte)
RuptureTrendDesirable Undesirable
Driving force 1 2 3 4 5
Behavior General Respect Local respect Erratic Reject Rupture
InfrastructuresUpgraded to European norms
MaintenanceSpatial heterogeneity
Focused on externalactivities
Degradation
ImmigrationIntegration of illegal migrants
Existence of illegal migrants
Expulsion of all illegal migrants
Majority of illegal migrants
Modes of Production
A new hybrid model
Promotion of local agriculture
Dual agricultureIntensive agriculture
No more agriculture
Land use management style
Concertation and care of actors’ expectations
Unilateral, top-down, no contestation
Numerouscentres of décision; no coordination
Conflits withthe population
Control and regulation of agriculture
Adaptation to local context
Enforced with communication
Limited and erratic application
Abandon of rules and controls
Local know-how and knowledge
PromotionHybridation with external knowledge
Simple transmission
Reject of non local knowledge
Disparition
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S2.6 Define the states of the driving forcesS2.7 Build up scenarios
S3.8 From scenarios to action
S0.1 Define the limits of the system
S1.2 Identify the forces of changeS1.3 Define the forces of changeS1.4 Measure their mutual influences S1.5 Unveiling the driving forces
S0 – Defining the system
S1 – Identification of the forces shaping the future
S2 – Identification of plausible futures
S3 – Definition of a strategy
Detailed steps
S2 – Identification of plausible futures
8
Objective - Build scenarios exploring the widest range of possible evolutions of the system
Method Group discussion / brainstorming The frame of a scenario is a combination of different states
of the driving forces A scenario is a description of the system in the future : a
vision and a path that leads to that vision from now
Output Several contrasted and mutually exclusive scenarios
S2.7 Building scenarios
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A scenario is a description of how the future may unfold according to an explicit, coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships between driving forces
A scenario is a story entailing an image of the future and indications on a path leading to that future
Each scenario must be plausible, contrasted and exclusive of all other scenarios
Altogether the scenarios cover a large range of possible evolutions
What is a scenario?
10
Use the table with the driving forces and their states Start with highlighting incompatible states vertically across
driving forces (see next slide for exercise)
Chose one state for each driving force and combine them to form a coherent set of hypotheses about the future
Consider trends, extremes, ruptures Think about desirable and undesirable scenarios
Think about what could probably happen (the trend)
Think about other possibilities
Be creative…
How to create a scenario?
11
How to find incompatible states?
Exercise with the participants: identify two incompatible states 12
1 2 3 4 5
A ICTDEVPT
High tech, high speed ICT facilities
affordable and accessible to all
people
Limited signal ICT facilities are
availale only for elites and
powerful
B
GOVATTITUDE
(incl.
ORGANICPOLIC
Y)
Strong will and commitment to
action to frame and implement
policies and programmes benfiting
the people including the poor
including promoting organic
agriculture policies
Collusion between local
governement and private
sector companies lead to
unfavorable local policies for
most local people including
promotion of high input
intensive agroindustrial
agrciculture
Good policies and
programmes for local
development are not
implemented
There is no more local
government and local
programmes are
decided and
implemented by local
representatives of
international
companies
local government
policies are only
implemented when
forces by citizens
organisations and
movements
C
RURALINFRAST
(incl.
AGPROCESSING
and
LOCALMARKINC
ENT)
Community-based agro-
infrastrucutres are run and
managed by farmer-led
agricooperatives thanks to energy
efficient and sustanaible rural
infrastructures present in all
communities enabling local
products to meet quality standards
and dominate local markets and
thanks to government regulating
farm gate prices
High cost and unequal access
to infrastrucutre induce unfair
competition with imported
products resulting in the
degradation of processinfg
infrastructures and absence of
incentives for local production
and local markets and prices
controled by monopolies and
cartels
All infrastrucutre defunct
including agro-
processing
infrastructures, no
incentives for local
production which is
limited ti self sufficiency
Modern infrastructures
and and advanced
agroprocessing
technologies target
specific market nices
for local prodcuts to be
sold internationnally
DPEOPLEBEHAV
Unity, solidarity in diversity,
cooperation through organized
groups
People are individualistic,
unorganized and insensitive to
others' needs
People belong to
organized groups which
cannot resolve their
differences leading to
conflict, war and anarchy
All citizens are
controlled by electronic
devices 24/7 and are
forces to behave
according to the norm
(not the elite)
ELOCORGCAP
Local organizations strongly
influence policies because they are
able to mobilize people locally and
build local developement initiatives
that they can implement by
themselves or negotiate with local
givernment
Local organisations have
limited influence on policies
because they are themselves
influenced by other
stakeholders (local
government, private sectors,
other organisations)
Local organizations
influence policies to
serve the interest of their
leaders and not the
members
Local organizations do
not influence policy
because they are
prohibited by anti-
crime, anti-terrorism
laws
FYOUTHAGRIC
Youth are actively engaged locally
in agriculture as independant
farmers and enthusiast about
profitable sustainable agriculture,
natural resources management
No youth want to engage in
agriculture, abandonning
farms and villages only to
those who have no other
option
Multinational companies
start large scale
operations and employ
youth in farm and
processing work as paid
workers
Some youth are
engaged in agriculture,
operating their farms
from larger cities where
they live
Defining the frames of the scenarios
The frame of a scenario is a combination of the code of the driving force and the number of the selected state
Display the table with the driving forces and their states
Distribute four different colored cards to each participant
Write one frame per card according to the color, for example
pink= desirable;
grey=not desirable;
blue=trend;
yellow=rupture;
How to do it as a group?
A1B1C1D1E1F1G2
A2B2C2D3E2F3G3
A5B5C4D5E4F4G5
A5B5C4D2E3F4G4
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Driving force 1 2 3 4 5
A. Behavior General Respect Local Respect Erratic, impredictible
Reject Rupture
B. Infrastructure European standards
Maintenance High heterogeneity Focused on foreign exchanges
Degradation
C. Immigration Progressive integration of illegal migrants
Presence of illegal migrants
Expulsion of all illegal migrants
Majority of illegal migrants
D. Production pattern
New model based on local and external knowledge and technologies
Local model supported and promoted
Two models domination of intensive farming
Intensive, Survival of subsistence farming
Abandon, Survival of subsistence farming
E. Land use management
Concerted and inclusion of local actors expectations
Conflicts with the population
Unilateral, top-down, no protest
Numerous poles of decision, no coordination
F. Control and rules for AFLA
Adaptation to local specificities
Communication and stronger control and sanctions
Limited and erratic implementation
Abandon of rules and control
G. Local know-how and knowledge (LKK)
Promotion of LKK Preservation and transmission of LKK
Hybridization with external KK
Rejection of non local KK
Fading of LKK
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Examples of frames (Mayotte)
The Maore Garden The Trading Post
Defining the frames of the scenarios Collect all cards and display them on a wall (grouping them
by codes)
Discuss the frames until they form contrasted and mutually exclusive groups
Write the frame of each scenario putting together the states of the driving forces, finding some logics in their combination
If the logics seems hard to understand, discard that frame
How to do it as a group?
15
Writing states of the driving forces
Grouping the states
The final table of states
Writing frames
Grouping frames
Displaying the frames
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Developing the scenarios
For each frame, develop the scenarios by characterizing the state of the output forces
Then, define the state of the leverages that is consistent with the state of the driving forces and output forces
Complete with the bunch forces
Reflect on the outliers
How to do it in a group?
17Support material: S2.7 Methodological Note
Nine sceanrios of the place of agriculture and the rural world in Mayotte by 2020
The integrated rurality The Maore garden
The Trading postSelf-management
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