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1 The future is 5G

3 Electronics for 5G: a market growth of +74%

3 A survey on consumers about 5G

5 WSTS Forecast

6 Automotive: a drop of sales in 2020, but new opportunities ahead

9 Top 10 Semi manufacturer

1

AREI - SOUTH AFRICAAssociation of Representatives for Electronics Industry

ASPEC - RUSSIAAssociation of Suppliers of Electronic Components

ASSODEL - ITALYAssociazione Nazionale Fornitori Elettronica

CEDA - CHINAChina Electronics Distributor Alliance

ECAANZ - AUSTRALIAElectronic Components Association Australia and New Zealand

ECIA - UNITED STATESElectronic Components Industry Association

ECSN - UNITED KINGDOMElectronic Components Supply Network

ELCINA - INDIAElectronic Industries Association of India

FBDI - GERMANYFachverband der Bauelemente Distribution

FEDELEC - TUNISIATunisian Federation of Electricand Electronic Industries

SE - SWEDENSvensk Elektronik Trade Associations

SPDEI - FRANCESyndicat Professionnel de la Distribution en Electronique Industrielle

JULY 2020

INTERNATIONAL D ISTR IBUT ION OF ELECTRONICS ASSOCIAT ION

ELECTRONICS

N° 3 - 2020

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JULY 2020

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PUBLISHER: Laura Baronchelli

International Promotion by: PHOT

PUBLISHED BY: Tecnoimprese ScarlVia C. Flaminio, 19 - 20134 Milan - Italy

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of global mobile network operators, concluded that 5G will contribute $2.2 trillion to the global economy over the next 15 years (Figure 1), with the biggest beneficiaries being the manufacturing, utilities, and professional and financial services sectors.

“5G WILL CONTRIBUTE $2.2 TRILLION TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN THE NEXT 15 YEARS”

5G ENABLES A POWERFUL SET OF USE-CASE SCENARIOS 5G’s network capabilities were specified to address the requirements of three broad

Whilst we are still early in its deployment cycle, 5G’s

characteristics and performance capabilities are well defined and its potential to enable new and improved applications is already clear. Beyond those applications which have already emerged, however, it is widely anticipated that 5G will transform many areas of our lives by enabling further levels of innovation across multiple vertical segments, including healthcare, automotive, smart cities and industrial automation.

Most analysts and industry com-mentators are united in their view that 5G will underpin the next wave of growth in global GDP and a recent report, commissioned by GSMA, a trade association representing the interests

THE FUTURE IS 5G

5G will push the next wave of growth in global GDP. According to experts, this technology will contribute to 2.2 trillion dollars in the next 15 years enabling a growing number of application and business opportunities

ESTIMATED IMPACT OF 5G ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

Source: GSMA

Figure 3 Figure 1

ADAM CHIDLEY, EMEA at AVNET ABACUS

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use-case scenarios, as illustrated in the diagram published by the ITU (Figure 2) and summarised on the next page.

ENHANCED MOBILE BROADBAND, (EMBB) With extremely high data-rates, up to 20Gbps, eMBB provides an improved consumer experience and also supports high bandwidth applications such as Augmented Reality (AR), Artificial Intelligence (AI), and Virtual Reality (VR).

“5G WILL BE THE NEXT DRIVER OF GLOBAL

ECONOMICAL GROWTH”

MASSIVE MACHINE TYPE COMMUNICATIONS mMTC provides wide-area coverage and deep indoor penetration for an extremely large number – up to 1 million per square kilometre - of connected devices.

This use-case addresses the requirements of the rapidly growing mobile IoT, by providing Low-Power-Wide-Area, (LPWA) technologies which enable low power consumption, improved coverage and optimised transmission for small and intermittent blocks of data. Ultra-Reliable and Low Latency Communications (URLLC) URLLC supports highly mission-critical applications which are heavily dependent on extremely low end-to-end (E2E) latencies (one millisecond or less), along with high reliability and availability.

In practice, not all applications will need to use all of 5G’s capabilities, whilst others may require different combinations, as illustrated in Figure 2, often varying dynamically. A remote IoT sensor, for example, will have a consistent need for low battery usage, low power and low data rate communications, placing it firmly in the mMTC use case. Remote robotic surgery will, as we will see later, require a combination of eMBB and URRL capabilities, as the

Credits: Comzeal

ESTIMATED IMPACT OF 5G ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

Source: ITU

Figure 2


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application must transfer large quantities of sensor data from the robotic device to the surgeon whilst also enabling near real-time responses during the operation.

This changing mix of requirements is handled by 5G’s network slicing functionality which enables the allocated network resources to change dynamically, inline with the application’s needs.

EMERGING APPLICATIONS GIVE INSIGHT INTO THE POWER OF 5G As discussed earlier, there are significant expectations on the contribution that 5G will make to future global economic prosperity. Although much of this contribution will come from applications which are yet to emerge, 5G’s potential benefit areas can be classified as described in Table 1 and the remainder of this section considers a sample of current, high profile applications which are already integrating 5G capabilities.

AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES The driverless car is a leading example of a current, high-profile technological development, with vehicles such as Google’s Waymo, BMW’s Vision iNext and Tesla’s models frequently featuring in headlines. Although these vehicles are still very much at the development stage, analysts are predicting strong growth in this sector over the next five years, with widespread availability of 5G networks being seen as a fundamental pre-requisite to this growth.

“AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES WILL SEE AN ENOURMOUS GROWTH

IN THE NEXT 5 YEARS ALSO THANKS TO 5G”

Reliable and safe operation requires that the autonomous vehicle must continuously interact with its environment, communicating with other vehicles, roadside infrastructure, pedestrians, and other entities, such as remote data centres.

This interaction will draw heavily on 5G’s capabilities: URLCC enables the vehicle to respond and react in real-time; eMBB supports the transfer of large amounts of data – as much as 2 million Gbps - as the vehicle senses and communicates with its environment; and mMTC enables an extensive network of roadside sensors. The subset of cellular technologies required to support autonomous vehicles has been termed vehicle to everything (V2X) and 3GPP has been building progressive cellular support for V2X into its releases (Figure 3).

5G News

Electronics for 5G: a market growth of +74%The market for memories, power amplifiers and artificial intelligence systems for 5G applications is taking off as it is strongly stimulated by the exponential increase in data traffic, technological progress leading to improvements in performance and hardware capacities.According to Frost & Sullivan, this market should record a very strong growth with an annual compound rate (CAGR) of 74.3%. This would allow the market to reach $15.03 billion by 2025, against $ 536.9 million in 2019.

Key segments will be manufacturing, health, automotive, retail and agricultural sectors.

A survey on consumers about 5GAnsys, a specialist in simulation software, commissioned the independent research organization Atomik Research to carry out a global study on the consumer relationship with 5G. Carried out in March 2020 in a sample of 16,037 people in ten countries (Germany, Austria, China, United States, France, India, Japan, United Kingdom, Sweden and Switzerland), the survey revealed that 78% of respondents know what 5G is.However, only 29% of the EU respondents believe that the craze for 5G is justified and that technology will radically impact their daily lives compared to 4G. This perception contrasts sharply with the enthusiasm of the Chinese (77%) and the Indians (75%) for 5G.

According to the study, almost 45% of people are confident that 5G will be available in less than a year, while 50% think it will take more than a year to be able to benefit from it. Also asked about their possible concerns with regard to 5G, 31% of the total panel declare that they do not have one. On the other hand, 33% of those questioned fear a price that is too high. 20% also say they are concerned about the security issues related to 5G. Finally, despite these concerns, most of the respondents agree on the benefits of 5G on economics. Among all the respondents, 91% think that the most positive impact of 5G will be the time saving for downloads, a better connectivity and the acceleration of the deployment of technologies such as autonomous cars.

“AN ANNUAL GROWTH OF 74.5% IS ESTIMATED”


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REMOTE ROBOTIC SURGERY Another application capitalising on early 5G deployments is remote robotic surgery. Haptic, as well as visual, feedback is critical in surgery and the surgeon must react to both types of stimuli in under 10 mSecs – a response time which has previously presented a barrier to remote surgery. Because of this, robotic surgical devices have until now had to be directly controlled by a surgeon within the same physical environment as the patient.

Now, however, a collaboration between telecommunications giant Ericsson and King’s College London (KCL) are working

on the application of 5G technology to remote telesurgery. Ericsson has developed specialised haptic gloves, enabling a surgeon to operate on a patient using a robotic device, with no loss of sense of touch.

The eMBB capabilities of 5G are used to stream the haptic data from the advanced sensor arrays on the robotic device, along with video from the operating theatre.

The URLCC capabilities of 5G are crucial in enabling the data to be streamed from the remote operating theatre to the surgeon within the required 10mSec delay.

EVOLUTION OF 3GPP V2X STANDARDS

Source: 5GAA, Timeline for deployment of c-V2X – Update

Figure 3

SUMMARY OF ANTICIPATED 5G BENEFITS

BENEFIT AREA EXAMPLES SERVICES

Improved connectivityFaster and more reliable connectivity for a wide range of users in environments such as road and rail, dense areas and at home

Increased consumer value and productivity gains

New consumer devices and services

Smart devices and services including immersive media and entertainment, healthcare wearables, and autonomous vehicles

Variety of consumer and business benefits,driven by innovation

Smarter infrastructure and public services

Examples include advanced asset tracking, remote control, predictive maintenance and sensor-enabled processes across multiple sectors

Increased productivity

Smarter infrastructure and public services Street lighting, traffic management, energy grids

More efficient and secure service delivery, environmental benefits

Table 1


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5G networks have already enabled real world operations using remote tele-surgery when, in March 2019, People’s Liberation Army General Hospital (PLAGH) chief physician Ling Zhipei performed brain surgery on a Parkinson’s disease patient in Beijing from the PLAGH Hainan Hospital 3,000 km away.

THE IOT The explosive growth of the IoT shows no signs of abating, with Gartner forecasting 20.8 billion connected “things” by 2020, and IHS Markit predicting that this number will rise to 125 billion by 2030. IoT applications span most sectors, including the Industry 4.0 factory, smart cities, agricultural monitoring, pipeline monitoring, aircraft maintenance and many more, with the intelligent sensor or ‘thing’ as the common denominator. A significant proportion of these applications require LPWAN technologies which are characterised by enhanced indoor, outdoor and underground coverage and enable battery-powered devices, which transmit data only occasionally, to achieve battery lives of up to 10 years. Many operators have been developing LPWAN offerings based on either NB-IoT or LTE-M networks, both of which were defined in 3GPP Release 13, with the GSMA reporting 89 NB-IoT networks and 34 LTE-M launches as of October 2019. Recognising this investment, 3GPP has confirmed

Credits: Blackstone

News from FBDi

PFOA now in REACh and POP regulation On 4 July, PFOA - perfluorooctanoic acid, its salts and precursor compounds - was included in the POP (Persistent Organic Pollutants) Regulation (EU) 2019/1021 and at the same time also came into force in the REACh Regulation (Annex XVII, entry 68). FBDi association points out, that both regulations apply to PFOA with immediate effect, but for affected applications (mentioned in both regulations) the phase-out dates and limit values under the stricter POP Regulation apply. It aims to completely remove a substance identified as POP from the substance cycle by means of a ban. This also applies to regulations on storage. The deletion of entry 68 in Annex XVII of REACh is currently under discussion, but has not yet been published in the German Amtsblatt. The Europe-wide ban regulates the production, marketing, use, placing on the market and import of PFOA as such, but also in products. The substance is toxic to the human liver - it is absorbed through the air, dust, food or contaminated drinking water - and damages reproduction. Because PFOA and its precursors give surfaces water, oil and dirt repellent properties, they have spread to all environmental compartments. Moreover, PFOA is extremely stable and does not degrade in the environment, so it accumulates in living organisms.Effective immediately, limits of 0.025 mg/kg for PFOA and 1 mg/kg for PFOA precursors according to POP apply. There are longer transition periods, of which the following exceptions are relevant for distribution:- The applications / uses / products named under exception 5: Until 04 July 2025- The applications / uses / products mentioned under exception 9: Until 03 December 2020

Market News

WSTS Forecast

The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) has released its new semiconductor market forecast in May 2020. WSTS

expects the world semiconductor market to be up by 3.3 percent to US$ 426 billion in 2020. This reflects expected increase in Integrated Circuits, except Analog, with an increase from Memory at 15 percent, followed by Logic with 2.9%. In 2020, Americas and Asia Pacific are expected to grow. The Worldwide Semiconductor Market growth is expected to accelerate in 2021. For 2021, the global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 6.2%, driven by double-digit growth of Memory. All regions are expected to show a positive growth rate.

that both technologies meet the 5G specifications and will underpin the mMTC capability as the 5G standard continues to evolve, guaranteeing a smooth migration path for existing solutions.

“BY 2030 THERE WILL BE MORE THAN 125 BILLION

OF CONNECTED THINGS”

THE 5G JOURNEY IS JUST BEGINNING The roll-out of 5G is just over one year old but, even before the fi rst network was deployed, expectations of 5G were exceptionally high, with analysts predicting that it will be the next driver of global economic growth, enabling significant future value creation across multiple sectors. 5G’s real value will be based upon enablement of emerging applications rather than on faster handsets, and this article has considered how 5G’s capabilities are enabling a sample of these current applications. We are clearly at the beginning of a long road with 5G, but the pace of innovation can only be expected to accelerate as operators embrace the full opportunities offered by investing in fully functional 5G networks.


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The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) is forecasting a drop of 25% in car sales in the EU this year as result of the Covid-19

pandemic. Just 9.6 million vehicles are expected to be sold in 2020, compared to 12.8 million in 2019…A forecast which represents the lowest number of new cars sold in the EU since 2013 and, in percentage terms, the steepest year-on-year drop ever in Europe’s automotive sector.

However, looking ahead in the next future, there are new opportunities of growth for electronic components in the automotive sector.According to Global Market Insights, the Automotive Electronics Market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 7% from 2019 to 2030 from a starting value of USD 285 billion dollars to a value of 645 billion dollars.

THE GROWTH DRIVERS The increase in investments in research and development of systems and technologies for autonomous driving is pushing the demand for electronics in the automotive sector, increasing the request of automed systems, safety systems, fuel injection modules etc. Also the digitization of automotive systems will create new opportunies by including connected technologies and in-vehicle communication.

The growing size of the market for infotainment systems

Automotive: a drop of sales in 2020, but new opportunities ahead

GLOBAL MARKET INSIGHTS

for passenger and luxury vehicles is also stimulating the demand for electronic solutions. Among the most interesting products there are ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) which will grow at a CAGR of over 9.5% in the next 10 years. These solutions support the driver in dangerous or emergency situations and allow to prevent or limit the possibility of an accident. these applications will in fact show an average growth rate of over 9.5%.ADAS include various systems such as adaptive cruise control, parking assistance, blind spot detection, night vision and automated braking systems.

“THE AUTOMOTIVE ELECTRONICS MAKET IS ESTIMATED TO GROW EVERY YEAR OF 7% (2019-2030)”

Another growth driver is the stringent regulatory framework in North America and Europe which is related to safety & security regulations and standards aimed. In 2018, the European Commission has adopted a proposal for a regulation that will bring about significant changes in safety equipment, also raising awareness among consumers of the importance of assisted driving systems.While, in September 2018, in India, the Union Minister for Road and Highway Transport announced the mandating of ADAS system for all cars by 2022 to enhance road safety in India. The need to reduce road fatalities and ensure reduced traffic congestion accounts for the deployment of ADAS in all vehicle types. Moreover, OEMs are focusing to implement various ADAS systems to drive market demand.

ASIA WILL SEE A MAJOR GROWTH Concerning geographical areas, according to Global Market Insights, Europe maintain an important demand for

Even though the car sales market will see a drop of 25% this year, safety & security regulations together with an increate demand foe electric vehicles and autonomous cars will drive the market ahead.

INDUSTRIAL TRENDSAutomotive electronics market size valued at USD 285 billion in 2018 and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 7% from 2019 to 2030

Source: Automotive Electronics Market

Figure 1


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automotive electronics thanks to the presence of important vehicle manufacturers, like BMW and Mercedes Benz. In fact, these companies produce luxury vehicles with exclusive comfort and safety features. But the area that will record the most important growth will however be the Asian one, which will show an average growth rate of 8% between now and 2030.

“ADAS WILL SE THE MOST INTERESTING GROWTH, WITH

ANNUAL CAGR OF 9.5% IN THE NEXT 10 YEARS”

China market insights show a significant increase in the demand for automotive electronics due to the high automotive production of passenger vehicles and adoption of electric vehicles in the region. As a result, there is a huge requirement of enhanced powertrain and engine management systems that provide better fuel consumption capabilities. In 2018, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, approximately 28 million vehicles were produced, which may accelerate the market value in the region. Moreover, in June 2018, the Chinese Government has announced subsidy payments for electric vehicle consumers depending on the vehicle range which will further contribute in a flourishing automotive market in 2018. The total subsidy funded by the government on electric vehicle purchases varies from 250 miles or more in USD 10,000. According to the International Energy Agency, China is expected to account for 57% share of the electronic vehicle market forecasts by 2030.

INCREASING INTEGRATION OF ADASSYSTEMS IN PASSENGER VEHICLESGlobal ADAS market share, by product, 2018 (USD million)

ASIA PACIFIC AUTOMOTIVE ELECTRONICSMARKET SIZE, BY REGION 2030

Source: www.gminsights.com

Source: www.gminsights.com

Figure 2

Figure 3

E-MOBILITY PUSHED BY GOVERNMENTS The increasing adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles is one of the major market factors in countries such as China, India, U.S. Japan, France etc. will further contribute towards the increase of automotive electronics market share over the forecast period. European countries are focusing their efforts to phase out diesel-combustion engines and consequently gasoline engines by 2030.Governments are taking initiatives to enhance the production of electric vehicles to reduce fuel consumption and pollution-related issues, which will boost the industry forecast. For instance, the Government of India under its FAME scheme (Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles) has shortlisted 11 cities in the country to introduce electric vehicles in their public transport system creating new market opportunities.

DRIVERS AND CHALLENGES FOR THE AUTOMOTIVE ELECTRONICS MARKET

Growth Drivers:

Increasing demand for safety and comfort systemsStringent regulatory framework in North America and EuropeIncreasing sales of electric vehicles in ChinaRapid development of driving technology in EuropeGrowing vehicle production activities in South Africa

Challenges:

High prices of ADASDeclining automotive production in the U.S.Increasing system complexity

Main Palyers:

Magna, Continental, Bosch, Infineon, Lear, Delphi, Hitachi, Texas Instruments, ZF Friedrichshafen, Voxx, Faurecia, Hyundai and Valeo

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Market NewsTop 10 semi manufacturers: some figures

Source: Omnia 2020

Sour

ce: D

ecisi

on -

Ètud

es &

Con

seil

TOP 10 SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLIER RANKING IN Q1-2020 (ranking by revenue in millions of US dollars) Figure 1

The top 10 worldwide semiconductor manufacturers collectively generated

revenues of $ 63.6 billion in the first quarter of 2020, compared with $ 62.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019, up 2.1%. While the semiconductor market reported a sequential decrease of 2% during this same period.With a drop in revenues in the global semiconductor market, the top 10 global suppliers present on this market managed to generate sales growth of 2.1% in the first quarter, benefiting from an increase in demand for semiconductors for PCs and servers caused by the Covid-19 crisis.Memory-based semiconductor suppliers have driven much of the growth. Among the top 10 semiconductor suppliers, the top three

companies active in this field - Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron - collectively increased their revenues by 1.1% in the first quarter. These companies have benefited from the growth of the IT market, which is generating growing demand for Nand flash memories used in enterprise SSDs. Nand flash memory sales increased 6.9% sequentially in the first quarter, representing the highest growth rate of any product in the semiconductor market during the period.While memory was the main driver of growth for the top 10, the best individual performances were recorded by the US supplier of wireless semiconductors Qualcomm and the Chinese factory-based systems on a chip (HiC) company HiSilicon.

Qualcomm, sixth, achieved solid sequential growth of 14.6% in the first quarter, while HiSilicon jumped 40.3% from 16th to 8th place, the highest expansion rate of the top 10 semiconductor suppliers.Although demand for PC-oriented chips increased in the first quarter, the leader in microprocessors, Intel, experienced a 1.8% drop in sales over the period. The increase in demand for computers in the first quarter focused on low-end systems, increasing demand for lower-cost Intel microprocessors and chipsets, thereby reducing revenues.Kioxia, formerly known as Toshiba Memory, climbed one row to take the # 10 spot, with a turnover increased by 10%. In this classification there is no European company.

Europe is strong in automotive electronics, industrial electronics, aerospace-defense-security as well as in

the health industries. In the consumer market, Europe is much weaker.

A study by Decision carried out on behalf of the European Commission gives an image of the industrial situation of the European electronic value chain, from microelectronics and nanoelectronics to end users of systems incorporating electronics, and its position in the world. It shows that Europe holds strong positions in the professional and embedded electronics segments.

The future of Europe is in industrial, medical and automotive applicationsBring us your theories, your visions, your bold new ideas. We can make them a reality. No matter where you are in your product journey, we’ve got the solutions and know-how you need to get to market…fast.

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YOUR IDEA CommunitiesResearch& Concept

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