idc herzliya conference 2014 - iran panel
DESCRIPTION
IDC Herzliya Conference 2014 - Iran Panel. 2014 - a year of important decision (S) for Iran’s supreme leader. Role of the Supreme Leader. - Consults with different bodies and personalities in Iran - Ultimate decision maker - Sets red lines for negotiation team. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: IDC Herzliya Conference 2014 - Iran Panel](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56812e50550346895d93ef32/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
IDC Herzliya Conference 2014 - Iran Panel
2014 - a year of important decision (S) for Iran’s supreme leader
![Page 2: IDC Herzliya Conference 2014 - Iran Panel](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56812e50550346895d93ef32/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Role of the Supreme Leader- Consults with different bodies and personalities in Iran - Ultimate decision maker- Sets red lines for negotiation team
![Page 3: IDC Herzliya Conference 2014 - Iran Panel](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56812e50550346895d93ef32/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Chances of success for the current nuclear talks
President Obama:50 : 50 My estimate:60 : 40
![Page 4: IDC Herzliya Conference 2014 - Iran Panel](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56812e50550346895d93ef32/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
3 miscalculations by the supreme leader = 3 reasons for my optimism
![Page 5: IDC Herzliya Conference 2014 - Iran Panel](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56812e50550346895d93ef32/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Miscalculation number 1 -He got 2009 wrong: The Iranian regime was on the verge of being overthrown.- Impact on regime legitimacy and nuclear program (internally)
![Page 6: IDC Herzliya Conference 2014 - Iran Panel](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56812e50550346895d93ef32/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Miscalculation number 2: turning down Obama’s diplomatic overtures
![Page 7: IDC Herzliya Conference 2014 - Iran Panel](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56812e50550346895d93ef32/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Miscalculation number 3: Iran could get through sanctionsIran earned $650 billion during Ahmadinejad’s presidency, $200 billion is missingBozorgmehr, Najmeh “Iran, Rogue Trader” Financial Times 05/06/2014- Lack of consensus and legitimacy to unite people around the flag
![Page 8: IDC Herzliya Conference 2014 - Iran Panel](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56812e50550346895d93ef32/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Where is the IRGC in this story?
![Page 9: IDC Herzliya Conference 2014 - Iran Panel](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56812e50550346895d93ef32/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Its important to get 2014 right
![Page 10: IDC Herzliya Conference 2014 - Iran Panel](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56812e50550346895d93ef32/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
The question of Ayatollah Khamenei’s legacy- another reason for a deal. Removing sanctions needed because of:- High inflation-Iran’s oil infrastructure- Draught