icsc slow onset impacts of climate change

SLOW ONSET CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS:

What it is, why should we care, and what we can do about it

What it is, why should we care, and what we can do about it

SLOW ONSET CLIMATE CHANGE

IMPACTS:

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I t h i n k t h a t i f a s c i e n t i s t , p o l i t i c i a n , o r a n y p u b l i c f i g u re d i s a g re e s w i t h t h e s c i e n t i f i c c o n s e n s u s , i t i s i r re s p o n s i b l e t o n o t f i r s t a c k n o w l e d g e t h a t a s c i e n t i f i c c o n s e n s u s a c t u a l l y e x i s t s S c i e n t i f i c c o n s e n s u s i s n o t a v a g u e m a r k e r o f p u b l i c o p i n i o n ; i t i s t h e re s u l t o f a d e e p l y s k e p t i c a l p ro c e s s g e a re d t o w a rd t ra n s p a re n c y a n d e v i d e n c e .

L AW r E N C E T O r C E L LO , P H I LO S O P H E r A N d A C A d E M I C

ExECuTIvE SuMMAry

PArT 1What is SOI

PArT 2Whats at Stake

- FOOd SecurIty

- LOSS and damage

PArT 3Whats Being Done: Initiatives and Efforts

- FarmerS In IguIg

- FIShermen aLOng the cOaSt

PArT 4What Needs to be Done

RESEARCH, MONITORING, DATABASE GENERATION, DOCUMENTATION, NEW EQUIPMENT, AND TECHNOLOGY:

Views from the experts

cOmPrehenSIVe Land uSe PLannIng

educatIOn/aWareneSS raISIng

ROLE OF Local Government Units (LGUs)

cOOrdInatIOn

InVeStIng In PeOPLe

VALUES and VISION

cOmmunIcatIOn

the rOLe OF adaPtatIOn FInance In managIng SOI

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This paper contains scientific and anecdotal evidence, and expert and grassroots recommendations brought about by the questions: What are we doing about Slow Onset Impacts (SOI) or the long-term effects of climate change? Why should we do more? And what steps should be taken to meet this challenge?

There are two kinds of climate change events: rapid onset (extreme episodic disasters) and slow onset (chronic hazards) events. The former are what we are more familiar with, what with the massive devastation left behind by typhoons such as Ondoy, Pablo, and Yolanda. The latter (prolonged drought, increasing precipitation, sea level rise, and changes in ocean temperature, among others) are not so evident. They can, however, be just as deadly. Often more so.

Unfortunately for the Philippines and in most countries, a fixation on the short-term climatic impacts has been observed throughout the development of climate change initiatives. According to Alexander Mller, FAO Assistant Director General for Natural Resources, "Currently the world is focused on dealing with shorter-term climate impacts caused mainly by extreme weather events."

This fixation is understandableafter all, it is human nature to focus on the immediate, which is seemingly more urgent. It is easier and much more expected to respond to something seen and which inspires more emotion, than to work on something which takes years to take effect.

However, as this paper will show, a failure to understand the urgency of Slow Onset Impacts will severely affect the countrys food security, bio-diversity, ecosystems, and culture (due to cultural loss and migration), posing potentially irreparable loss and damage to infrastructure, human lives (due

to decrease of personal security and health), and the economy.

Recent scientific reports say that: Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems."

The 2012/2013 Human Development Report by the Philippine Human Development Network tells us, To some degree, communities may be comforted by the knowledge that because episodic events are familiar to the external sector (national and international agencies), well-oiled disaster response mechanisms (e.g., resource mobilization) are likely to come to their aid. The same cannot be said for responses to... [s]low-onset changes in average annual precipitationmore rainfall here, less there[that] will affect ecosystems and agricultural productivity in the long term, in profound ways. Because such impacts will not necessarily be accompanied by or reach the scale of severe flooding or catastrophic events, funding for response measures or anticipatory adaptive programs may not necessarily be readily available, if at all. Sea level rise will likewise impact coastal communities profoundly; water resources will be affected by salinity, land areas by increased susceptibility to erosion and storm surges. The change in the ocean chemistry will impact food chains. In the overall, risks in food and water security will be amplified.

Scientific reports project a 1.5- to 4-degree Celsius increase in global mean temperature from now till 2100. This could go up to a catastrophic six degrees if global emissions are not curbed, and data from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) show that this will create an increase in weather

ExECuTIvE SuMMAry

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related disasters and a change in precipitation patterns that will translate to shifts in the location, frequency, severity, and duration of dry and wet seasons in the Philippines.

This paper intends to shed light on the country's response, or lack of it, to Slow Onset Impacts. It should propel concerted action among policy makers, through budget interventions and structural changes that can make development more durable. Key areas for focus: Monitoring stations. Most of the knowledge we have on local climate change impacts are interpretations of local communities, which vary. Expert climatologists insist the first requirement of research is an adequate network of weather-monitoring stations manned by qualified technicians that record and synthesize detailed observations of changes in rainfall, temperature, and other similar natural phenomena. Data. We lack not only the proper kind of data; we also lack the amount to unequivocally quantify and predict impacts of climate changeand to formulate comprehensive mitigation and integrated adaptation measures through proper scientific modeling, not just generally accepted knowledge. Infrastructure that works and lasts. We need research to create more locally specific, sustainable designs to protect communities against impacts of climatic events, that can then take into consideration parameters like velocity of water flowor other hazards, like floodingalongside the specific strength of the materials with which they build roads in certain areas. Food security. An evaluation of the adaptability of our crops in relation to increases in temperature, rainfall, and rainfall patterns in specific locales will help us know what kind of crops will thrive, what

kind should be replaced, and what help we need from modern technology. Preservation of community, culture, and ecosystems. It is time to properly profile areas and find sustainable solutions that help sustain communities and preserve our culture. Expense. Better infrastructure planning can save the government hundreds of millions of pesos almost every year from having to replace damaged roads, and climate-resilient irrigation systems.

If there is one insight that this paper wishes to elevate, it is the urgent need to support more research.

Experts acknowledge that the current state of climate change research is seriously inadequate. Studies on the causes of climate change should be supported and in terms of better observational equipment and sustained improvements in technical capacity across the archipelago.

This paper takes voices from the scientific community, academe, non-government organizations, and local governments. It attempts to humanize scientific and technical jargon encountered in research, and includes a section for self-checka novel and perhaps risky decision for a paper seeking policy change.

By promoting the importance of a common language, values, and posing recommendations anchored on practicality and doability, the paper hopes that it will reach beyond its intended initial readership, to be appreciated by those who will benefit most from new policies, research, and initiatives that might arise from this endeavor: communities on the frontlines of the climate crisis.

E x E C u T I v E S u M M A r y

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WHAT IS SOIP A r T 1

A definition of Slow Onset Impacts (SOI) is in order.

Climate science and former Director of Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), Leoncio Alhambra Amadore, PhD, gives his own: Climate change, itself and by its very nature, is a slow onset event, but the extreme hazards (typhoons, heavy rains, etc.) associated with climate change are in themselves, sudden onset events.

Environmental lawyer and academic Linda Siegele explains, Acute (sudden-onset) hazards are those that will happen anyway, but their frequency, severity and/or location may be changed by climate change. These hazards tend to be of a short time frame and high severity. Chronic (slow-onset) hazards are caused entirely by man-made climate change and are termed chronic because the impact is gradual the disaster risk reduction community views slow onset hazards as disasters that unfold slowly over months or several years. In the climate change process, slow onset time scales are counted in

years or decades. (1)When asked about the timeframe pertaining

to Slow Onset Impacts, meteorologist and climatologist Lourdes V. Tibig, a member of the National Panel of Technical Experts established by the Climate Change Commission and one of the lead authors of the Working Group II contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5), says, Varying, depending on the nature of the slow onset impactswhether caused by changes in the rainfall, accelerated sea level rise or even those resulting from extreme hazards.

Based on history, SOI does not follow a scheduleand the severity of its effects depend on human action. Acceleration (of effects) could be exponential, depending on whats being donebut its business as usual... Slow Onset is just slow because its not sudden. But when you talk about the rate of the impactsyou never know.

It may be difficult to disassociate climate change effects from normal climate variability, states

The Philippines has seen three times the global average in sea level rise, exacerbating its vulnerability to natural disasters, climate experts said at a conference in Paris this week. Michael Williams of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said the Philippines posted the highest average increase in sea levels, at 60 cms, against the global average of 19 cms since the year 1901.

It is a "major force of nature" against which countries like the Philippines can do little, but, said Williams, "there's a lot to be done with disaster risk prevention, alert systems, and so forth. But you have to understand that there is that additional risk."

Williams elaborated: "The global average of sea level rise since the year 1900 or 1901 has been 19 cms for the last hundred and fifteen years. However that varies widely from

region to region, because of wind, because of currents in the ocean, because of changes in the land which rises and falls. So it so happens that in the area of the Philippines, where the cyclone happened last year, probably because of the trade winds and the currents of the Pacific, you have a massive amount of water between the Philippines and where the winds are pushing the water. The sea level rise, according to several of the stations we have operational there, is much much more than the global average. It's more like 60 cms, and it's the highest sea level rise in the world."

Warning| PH seeing highest sea level rise in the world - thrice the global average, in fact, http://www.interaksyon.com/article/84113/warning--ph-seeing-highest-sea-level-rise-in-the-world---thrice-the-global-average-in-fact, April 4, 2015

THE PHILIPPINES SEA LEVEL RISE THREE TIMES THE GLOBAL AVERAGE

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W H A T I S S O I

a paper from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (2). But the most clearly distinguishable impacts of climate change are slow onset events that will be exacerbated in the decades to come, resulting in serious and knock-on impacts. These include the need to relocate communities that will be affected by sea level rise, which in turn places pressure on other ecosystem zones and host communities.

The scientific and climate community may have overlapping definitions, but the same message: An understanding and appreciation of SOI can solve many problems that are certain to take place. Says Department of Agriculture Undersecretary Segafredo Serrano, it can help the government form a very deliberate vision and learnings gleaned from insights of the past. You can plan long-term.

Rosa Perez, PhD, member and consultant of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC), a hydro-meteorologist, gives her own easy explanation of slow onset events. Slow onset events are usually related to El Nio, she says, referring to the periodic weather phenomenon that affects the regions across the Pacific, causing droughts in some and heavy rainfall in others. Sea level rise is also a slow onset event. So all the accompanying hazards of sea level rise, like coastal erosion, will change without you knowing. Acidification, desertification. What happens there is your soil will become too dry, which may lead to soil desertification. But thats a very slow process.

Dr. Perez reiterates that it will happen. Some will happen in our time, our childrens time, and affect generations after.

She continues: And by then, it might be too late to do anything. So we should do everything now to prevent all of this, to prepare. Unlike storms, which you can predict, if you dont monitor slow onset

Modified maps based on what PAGASA made in 2011 show how different regions in the Philippines will be affected by slow onset changes in rising temperatures (by degrees Celsius). They show all areas of the Philippines will get warmer during the

summer months, with largest temperature increase during MAM (March-April-May).

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Maps also show projected changes in rainfall (by percentage), expected to decrease during MAM (March-April-May season), increase during JJA (June-July-August) until SON (September-October-November) in Luzon and Visayas, and during DJF (December-January-

February). However, there is likely to be a general decreasing trend in rainfall in Mindanao, especially by year 2050.

impacts, (their effects) will happen when you least expect it. Thats the danger of slow onset events.

Its not a question of what will happen, says Undersecretary Serrano. Whatever it is, will happen. And the solutions are within our reach. We shouldnt rely on negotiations with developed countries, he says, referring to talks about decreasing carbon emissions. We need to act with our own resources. Lets not wait until the impacts of slow onset events comewe need to move now.

REFERENCES:1. Loss & Damage: The theme of slow onset impact, August 2012, Climate Development Knowledge Network

2. Slow onset events Technical Paper, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, November 26, 20123. Germanwatch Global Climate Risk Index 20144. Maplecroft.com, a global risk advisory firm

5. www.gov.ph/government-information-during-natural-disasters/6. Manila Observatory, 2009

7. Satellites trace sea level change, September 24, 2012, Jonathan Amos, BBC News-Science and Environment

PH STATUS ALREADY AT RISK: The Philippines rank 2nd on the 2012 Global Climate Risk Index, after Haiti. (3)

We rank 8th on the Climate Change Vulnerability Index 2015more vulnerable than Eritrea or the Central Africa Republic (4).

We are the 5th most vulnerable country in terms of forecasted global sea level rise (5). The Philippines expects to lose 89,000 hectares of land due to sea level rise beyond 2050 (6). According to 18 years of satellite observation, the Philippine Sea has risen 10mm a yearcompared to the world average of 3mm a year (7).

F A S T F A C T S

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W H A T I S S O I

SOI, brought about by global warming, carries several risks, all of them interconnected.This was made evident at a 2014 Quezon City press conference called Climate Change: Impacts and Imperatives to present the findings of Working Group 2 for the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 Report: Overview and Implications in the Philippines. One of the Working Group 2 lead authors, Lourdes V. Tibig, who worked for 32 years at the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) and is currently a member of the National Panel of Technical Experts established by the Climate Change Commission, herself gave the presentation: Risk of death, injury, ill-health, or disrupted livelihoods in low-lying coastal zones and small island developing states and other small islands, due to storm surges, coastal flooding, and sea-level rise; Risk of severe ill-health and disrupted livelihoods for large urban populations due to inland flooding in some regions; Systemic risks due to extreme weather events leading to breakdown of infrastructure; networks and critical services

WHATS AT STAkEP A r T 2

dEFINITION OF TErMS(from The Global Warming Glossary from climatehotmap.org)

deSertIFIcatIOn - Land degradation in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human activities. The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification defines land degradation as a reduction or loss in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas, of the biological or economic productivity and complexity of rain-fed cropland, irrigated cropland, or range, pasture, forest, and woodlands resulting from land uses or from a process or combination of processes, including processes arising from human activities and habitation patterns, such as (i) soil erosion caused by wind and/or water; (ii) deterioration of the physical, chemical, and biological or economic properties of soil; and (iii) long-term loss of natural vegetation.

GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE - The global surface temperature is an estimate of the global mean surface air temperature. However, for changes over time, only anomalies, as departures from a climatology, are used, most commonly based on the area-weighted global average of the sea surface temperature anomaly and land surface air temperature anomaly.

GLOBAL WARMING - Global warming refers to the increase, observed or projected, in global surface temperature, as one of the consequences of radiative forcing caused by human-induced emissions.

SEA LEVEL RISE (OR SLR) - An increase in the mean level of the ocean. Eustatic sea-level rise is a change in global average sea level brought about by an increase in the volume of the world ocean. Relative sea level rise occurs where there is a local increase in the level of the ocean relative to the land, which might be due to ocean rise and/or land level subsidence. In areas subject to rapid land-level uplift, relative sea level can fall.

SaLt-Water IntruSIOn / encrOachment - Displacement of fresh surface water or groundwater by the advance of salt water due to its greater density. This usually occurs in coastal and estuarine areas due to reducing land-based influence (e.g., either from reduced runoff and associated groundwater recharge, or from excessive water withdrawals from aquifers) or increasing marine influence (e.g., relative sea level rise).

SaLInIzatIOn - The accumulation of salts in soils.

StOrm Surge - The temporary increase, at a particular locality, in the height of the sea due to extreme meteorological conditions (low atmospheric pressure and/or strong winds). The storm surge is defined as being the excess above the level expected from the tidal variation alone at that time and place.

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such as electricity, water supply, and health and emergency services. Risk of mortality and morbidity during periods of extreme heat, particularly for vulnerable urban populations and those working outdoors in urban or rural areas; Risk of food insecurity and the breakdown of food systems linked to warming, drought, flooding, and precipitation variability and extremes, particularly for poorer populations in urban and rural settings; Risk of loss of rural livelihoods and income due to insufficient access to drinking and irrigation water

and reduced agricultural productivity, particularly for farmers and pastoralists with minimal capital in semi-arid regions; Risk of loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem goods, functions, and services they provide for coastal livelihoods, especially for fishing communities in the tropics and the Arctic; and Risk of loss of terrestrial and inland water ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem goods, functions, and services they provide for livelihoods.

W H A T S A T S T A k E

When supply falls below demand, somebody doesnt have enough food. When some people dont have food, you get starvation. Yes, Im worried. - Michael Oppenheimer, a Princeton University climate scientist, co-author, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Report (1)

Food security is not the only issue with regard to the effects of SOIbut it is probably the most serious.

This, notwithstanding the fact that there are other factors that also contribute to dwindling crop yields. Scientist Lourdes V. Tibig points out that management practices, technology, government support are also to be considered. What among these factors did or did not come into play? And thats the kind of research that we really need to focus on.

Cities cannot exist without the hinterlands producing the food. Its a mutual, beneficial relationship. Sometimes maybe parasitic, but its an interrelation nevertheless, says Department of Agriculture Undersecretary Segefredo Serrano. Agriculture is, after all, the most climate-sensitive

sector (2). So the way we approach and surmount the challenges of slow onset events, is that we must breakdown the boundaries that divide what can be our own efforts.

Serrano disdains the gloom-and-doom story, but his fears are echoed even by global organizations.

Slow onset impacts are expected to bring deeper changes that challenge the ecosystem services needed for agriculture, with potentially disastrous impacts on food security during the period from 2050 to 2100. Coping with long-term changes after the fact doesnt make sense. We must already today support agriculture in the developing world to become more resilient, says Alexander Muller, FAO Assistant-Director General for Natural Resources (3).

Even half a meter of sea level rise would be perilous to coconut plantations and other high valued crops along the coastlines, where most production areas are located, says Serrano. Salt intrusion, or salinization, of the soil could also happen, which can inhibit seed germination and plant growth, thereby reducing crop yields. (4)

FOOd SECurITy

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Poses Serrano: Imagine all your production areas that were formerly irrigated by freshwater, now having saltwater intrusion or your soil acidifying because of an increase in temperaturesall these factors are adverse to maintaining your current high yields. Living beings, including plants and more specifically crops, can only live within a range or they can only be productive within an optimal range of temperature, moisture and in the case of plants, an optimal range of solar radiation and optimal range of acidity. When theyre out of that range, the

yield will suddenly drop. Can you imagine the food security implications if this happens?

A report called Agriculture Adaptation to Climate Change: The Philippine Experience (5) says:

Sea level rise can also cause damage to coastal fisheries a direct loss of cultivable lands due to saltwater

inundation and salinization of soil salinization of water sources

The loss of shell-forming species, coral reefs, and reef-dependent fisheries affects food security, trade, and tourism. Tropical reefs support and estimate 25 percent of marine fish species and provide food and livelihood for some 500 million people worldwide (UNEP, 2010). The annual economic value of

coral reefs to world tourism is estimated at around 9.6 billion (Conservation International, 2008).


Rising temperatures can result in the following: Increased evapotranspiration (or loss of water from the soil both by evaporation and by transpiration from the plants growing thereon, according to Merriam-Webster) resulting in reduced soil moisture Greater destruction of crops by pests that thrive in warmer climates Greater threats to livestock health Reduced quantity and reliability of agricultural yields

Greater need for cooling/refrigeration to maintain food quality and safety Greater threat of wildfires

And, the following can happen due to shifting agricultural seasons and rainfall patterns: Reduced quantity and quality of agricultural yields and forest products Either an excess or shortage of water Greater needs for irrigation

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Without new approaches to food production, says an article in The Nation, climate change in South and Southeast Asia is expected to reduce agriculture productivity by as much as 50 percent in the next three decades. And with agriculture serving as the backbone of most economies in the region, such plunging yields would shake countries to the core. (6)

But of course were not just going to lay down and die, says Serrano. You need to be able to improve crops and be scientifically objective. Maybe enhance new ones. We need to target crops that can be developed to withstand these environmental pressures crops that can subsist under conditions like no irrigation, he says.

The development of a new irrigation system or a crop that doesnt need much irrigation can save the national government 20 to 30 billion pesos a year, Serrano adds. For rice alone, he points out, irrigation takes up 40 to 50 percent of investments in agriculture.

It must be stressed, though, that even if and when we get all the data needed, the expertise of qualified, knowledgeable individuals and groups to implement the most effective initiatives is essential.

Because, he says, if the Philippines suffers a sea level rise, so will the countries from which we import rice. They will just as vulnerable. Vietnam, because the Mekong is there, the sea. Thailand, India, Myanmar, Cambodia, Pakistan. Even China. Even if youre swimming in foreign exchange, you wont be able to buy anything. Even now. Only three to five percent of the total world production of rice is traded. Thats small. Its very thin, thats why the price and supply is volatile.


LeSSer-quaLIty Water, LeSS FISh and marIne reSOurceSSea level rise also causes loss of fish habitat and reduced fish production, according to the 2014

IPCC Report. Increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs) resulting from rising air temperatures also impact coastal economies that depend on fisheries and tourism.

Daily consumption by every Filipino on average is about 104 gm of fish and fish products. About 1.61 million Filipinos are engaged in fishing. Eighty-nine percent of Filipino fisher folk rely on their own catch from the sea as the source of their largest portion of food, while 82 percent feed their families daily from their fish catch. - www.infofish.org, Country Profile Philippines, June 2012

FAO FORECAST: THE PHILIPPINES IS 8TH LargeSt ImPOrter OF rIce

MANILA, PhilippinesA 71-percent jump in the volume of rice imports to the Philip-pines, totaling 1.2 million metric tons in 2014, is expected to be a key driver of a recovery as well as a new high for global traffic this year, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The National Food Authority has called for tenders for a total of 800,000 MT, the biggest volume in a year so far during the Aquino administration.

With some 400,000 MT having arrived as part of a previous tender that closed last December, the Philippines expects a total of at least 1.2 million MT in 2014.

With only 700,000 MT brought in during 2013, Philippine imports are expected to balloon by at least 70 percent this year.

Based on the FAO forecast, the Philip-pines would account for the eighth-largest import volume in 2014. PH rice imports to hit 1.2M metric tons in 2014, Ronnie Domingo, Philippine Daily Inquirer, April 14, 2014

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The apocalypse has a new date? 2048?

That's when the world's oceans will be empty of fish, predicts an international team of ecologists and economists. The cause: the disappearance of species due to overfishing, pollution, habitat loss, and climate change.

The study by Boris Worm, PhD, of Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotiawith colleagues in the U.K., U.S., Sweden, and Panama was an effort to understand what this loss of ocean species might mean to the world.

The researchers analyzed several different kinds of data. Even to these ecology-minded scientists, the results were an unpleasant surprise.

"This isn't predicted to happen. This is happening now," study researcher Nicola Beaumont, PhD, of the Plymouth Marine Labora-tory, U.K., says in a news release.

"If biodiversity continues to decline, the marine environment will not be able to sustain our way of life. Indeed, it may not be able to

sustain our lives at all," Beaumont adds.

Already, 29 percent of edible fish and seafood species have declined by 90 percenta drop that means the collapse of these fisheries..

Their bottom line: Everything that lives in the ocean is important. The diversity of ocean life is the key to its survival. The areas of the ocean with the most different kinds of life are the healthiest.

But the loss of species isn't gradual. It's happening fastand get-ting faster, the researchers say.

Worm and colleagues call for sustainable fisheries management, pollution control, habitat maintenance, and the creation of more ocean reserves.

SOURCES: Worm, B. Science, Nov. 3, 2006; vol 314: pp 787-790. News release, SeaWeb. News release, American Association for the Advancement of Science. Saltwater fish extinction seen by 2048, http://www.cbsnews.com/news/salt-water-fish-extinction-seen-by-2048/


Many coastal economies depend on fisheries and on the tourism benefits of coral reefs, and a loss thereof would have substantial economic impacts, as well as reduc-ing marine biodiversity. (Baker et al, 2010). Ocean acidification interferes with the formation of the hard parts of corals and some shellfish, and plates of these organisms dis-solve in the acidic water (Caldeira and Wickett, 2013). Clams, scallops, mussels, oysters, abalone, and conchs provide direct protein sources for various island and coastal com-munities and are valuable commercial fisheries. Many of these species show reduced growth and/or health under ocean acidification (UNEP 2010).

SAY GOODBYE TO FISH

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Sir Dave Britton of the U.K.s Met Office was recently in town to present the Human Dynamics of Climate Change Map (HDCC Map), a visual diagram that shows the effects of climate change over a century, conveniently broken down according to region. The HDCC Map provides a snapshot on how climate change will eventually affect weather patterns, water and food availability, and the probability of natural disasters. It is a vital tool for decision-makers in both industry and government as they formulate long-term policies. For those unaware, the Met Office is the U.K.s equivalent to our PAGASA and one of the worlds leading climate change centers.

First Secretary Stephen Lysaght of the British Embassy, took me through the rather complex HDCC Map. Naturally, our discussion centered around the Philippines. Assuming the world continues to spew greenhouse gases at its current rate, Lysaght explains that the Philippines could experience a rise in temperatures of between 3 to 4.3 degrees Centigrade by the year 2100. Note that for every one-degree increase in nighttime temperatures,

a 10 percent reduction in agricultural harvests is expected. This could be disastrous to our food security, given our ever-increas-ing population.

The HDCC Map also predicts the incidence of drought to increase by five to 20 percent, which puts incredible stress on water availability, especially for heavily populated urban areas.

Making matters worse is that the incidence of tropical storms will become even more unpredictable, frequent and violent. This is because tropical clouds draw their energy from sea surfaces. The warmer the sea surface, the more energy the clouds can draw. In equatorial Asia, temperatures have already risen by more than two degrees Celsius in the last 20 years, with the likelihood to rise even further. This [partially] explains why our storms have become increasingly stronger each year. It is also predicted that incidence of urban flooding will increase by 77 percent. Low carbon economy best for the PH, Andrew Masigan, Manila Bulletin, November 24, 2014

IncreaSIng temPeratureS equaLS reductIOn OF agrIcuLturaL harVeStS

Map of ITCZ band. Source: http://swap-sushias.blogspot.com/2014/01/all-you-wanted-to-know-of-intertropical.html#.VIag5qSUe5L

hOW the Itcz aFFectS harVeStSThe Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) or Equatorial Conver-gence Zone or Intertropical Frontis a low pressure zone near the equator, from about 5-degrees north and 5-degrees south. This is where the northeast and southeast trade winds converge. Depend-ing on the season or month, it shifts from north to south (July in

the north, September on the equator, January in the south). The Philippines is in direct line, so to speak, of the ITCZ.

According to Panahon.TV, the ITCZ does not bring gentle rainfall. It instead brings heavy rain, thunderstorms with lightning, and a Low Pressure Area that can affect planting seasons and harvests.

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LOSS ANd dAMAGEOne doesnt have to be a climate scientist or a disaster risk specialist to know that SOI can also affect property and lives.

From an infrastructure perspective, that means billions of pesos lost, and more billions of pesos need to rebuild or rehabilitate. The total cost of damage from Yolanda, for example, from a Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) report, is P571.11B. Estimated reconstruction needs are pegged at P360.89B. (7)

The Disaster Risk Reduction office of Tuguegarao, Cagayan is used to such scenarios.

Every year, they evacuate whole communities along the Cagayan River that lie vulnerable to the perils of erosion due to land degradation. The barangay of Cataggaman loses one meter a year, according to Angelo Suyu, designated officer of the City Disaster Risk Reduction of Tuguegarao. Due to scouring by flood torrents and water released from the Magat Dam, the river has eaten into the once-agricultural and residential lands. Almost 4,000 families over six years in the Catamaggan area alone have been displaced, according to a report furnished to this paper by Suyu.

Other hard-hit areas are the towns of Annafunan and Gosi; Enrile was likewise singled out for heavy flooding.

Although the DPWH has scheduled the building of revetment structures for the eroded areas to ensue in January 2016, it is the research from the Japan International Cooperation Agency ( JICA) that resonates with Suyu and his colleagues from the DRR and City Planning and Development Coordinator's Office when asked about support. The project is called Flood Mitigation and River Protection, to be implemented in 2015, says Suyu.

It is too early to know how big a part sea level rise plays in the land degradation of the Cagayan River towns, but studies suggest it would have an

effect on embayment and gravel transition (8). Also, according to the Water Encyclopedia, A rise in sea level would affect low-lying land areas along coasts, including river deltas and barrier islands. (9)

The highest expected levels of sea rise are expected along the Pacific seaboard, part of the Philippines coastline. Seventeen thousand kilometers of this are vulnerable to tidal surges due to the high density of population living in those areas, according to a report called Climate Change: Challenge and Opportunities in the Philippines (10). Seventy percent of the countrys 1,500 municipalities live along coastlines, the report continues, and Storm surges are projected to affect about 14 percent of the total population and 42 percent of coastal populations.

The countries particularly vulnerable to these adverse effects (of climate change, especially from slow onset hazards or processes), are low-lying and other small island countries, countries with low-lying coastal, arid, and semi-arid areas or areas liable to floods, drought, and desertification, and developing countries with fragile mountainous ecosystems, Linda Siegele writes in her 2012 Loss & Damage Report (11).

Damages can be repaid, they can be rebuilt, says Dr. Rosa Perez, member and consultant of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). But how about your human losses? The loss of culture, your indigenous peoples?

Case in point: the Sama Dilaut of the southern Philippine provinces of Basilan, Zamboanga and northern Sulu, a seafaring people affected by the phenomena of rising sea levels, which has been causing irreparable damage and devastation to marine and coastal ecologythe immediate consequences of which are food shortage, unsecure shelters, and populations pushing inland, writes Mucha Shim Quiling, founding directress of

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the Lumah Ma Dilaut School for Living Traditions, United Nations lobbyist, and a community organizer and cultural worker advocating for culturally appropriate and liberating values-based education. (12)

In instances of environmental migration, these indigenous communities, after being forcibly displaced from their home-seas, usually seek sanctuaries by shoring up-land and building makeshift shelters in garbage dumps and risky areas, living in most inhuman conditions.

Cases of impact of climate change among indigenous peoples ability to adapt were collated. In a 2010 report by Lumah Ma Dilaut in a UNESCO-LINKS-supported research. The report accounted for demographic changes as the result

of massive, rapid, periodic migration and dispersal among sea-faring communities of Sama Dilaut in southern Philippine provinces of Basilan, Zamboanga, and northern Sulu.

The report noted resultant catastrophic and alarming effects on self-instituting indigenous social structures that threatened the sustainability of subsistent economic and social practices of sea nomadism, especially in eroding the integrity of traditional social networks and endangering traditional knowledge systems by rendering extinct the long-cherished body of wisdom that used to be naturally preserved through periodic practice of living traditions. These communal resources that had always been accessible in living memory of local women leaders and

SELF-CHECk: HOW AWArE ArE WE? From an interview with Rosa Perez, PhD, member and consultant of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we derive questions to help readers gauge the importance and awareness of Slow Onset Impacts in their respective contexts.

1. Does your community have the resources to meet the challenges of

____soil degradation

____ sea level rise

____ salinization

____ lowered agricultural/fisheries production

2. If yes, what are they?

3. What resources would your communities lack? What would you do to make up for that lack?

4. Are you aware of the other risksaside from loss of food security and loss and damagethat the above scenarios can bring?

5. Are you aware of the interconnectivity of slow onset climate change impacts and food security, safety, and health?

6. How do you regard loss and damages? What is priceless to you? What can be paid for and rebuilt?


IMPACT CHAIN. Dr. Rosa Perez of the IPCC says sea level rise can lead to loss and damages in infrastructure and human life, stemming from diminished food security and safety, which can, in turn, impact personal safety, which will lead to health

issues and a rise in illness and disease, and ultimately, the demise of human life and even cultures.

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REFERENCES:1. Panels warning on climate risk: Worst is yet to come, March 31, 2014, The New York Times

2. Philippine Human Development Report 2012/2013, Human Development Network3. Potentially catastrophic climate impacts on food production over long term, FAO, March 31, 2011

4. Slow Onset Events Technical Paper, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, November 26, 20125. Agricultural Adaptations to Climate Change: The Philippine Experience by Adelina D. Alvarez, Center for Quality and Competitiveness-Agri-culture Productivity Enhancement Division (CQC-AgriPED), Development Academy of the Philippines, Workshop on Agricultural Adaptations to

Climate Change, Bangkok, Thailand, November 22, 20126.Rapid climate change now threatens Asias rice bowl, Dan Klotz and Jeff Haskins, The Nation, April 21, 2012, http://www.nationmultime-

dia.com/opinion/Rapid-climate-change-now-threatens-Asias-rice-bowl-30180379.html7.DPWH Flood Risk Management and Resiliency Program, by Assistant Secretary Ma. Catalina E. Cabral, PhD, June 3, 2014

8. Modeling the Effect of Rising Sea Level on River Deltas and Long Profiles of Rivers, Gary Parker, Yoshihisa Akamatsu, Tetsuji Muto, William Dietrich, Hiroshima University, Japan, July 2004, 2000

9. http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/Re-St/Sea-Level.html10. Climate Change: Challenge and Opportunities in the Philippines by Esteban C. Godilano, Ph.D. and Eliseo R. Ponce, PhD., Seminar-

Workshop on Mainstreaming Climate Change: Adaptation and Mitigation Initiative in Agriculture. October 22 to 24, 2013, Manila11. Loss & Damage: The Theme of Slow Onset Impact, August 2012, Linda Siegele.

12. Story notes on Mucha Shim Quilings Lahat Hangkut, essay in Agam: Filipino Narratives on Uncertainty and Climate Change, 2014, iCSC13. Perspectives on Non-Economic Loss and Damage: Understanding values at risk from climate change, September 2013


elders, priestesses and female shamans, used to be readily available as survival tools for the indigenous population. Its sad demise in recent time, especially in life in diaspora and migration, however, had furthered the communities vulnerability and in the long term in fact may decrease their capacity for resiliency and future adaptability to the impact of worsening climatic conditions.

The loss of a culture means the loss of certain traditional wisdoms that can serve as sustainable solutions today. Vetiver grass, for examplea species of which is called moras by provincial folk in the south and which is used to hold line the base of bridgescan be used against erosion and soil degradation. The preservation of mangroves around coastal areas can help lessen the impact of storm surges and floods, which can cause not only loss and damage of structures, but also potentially irreparable loss in culture and communities due to migration.

The destruction of material and replaceable goods and services, as Dr. Perez cited, cost but money, andlike extreme events, are at once visible and can be addressed through expenditures and protocol.

But there are peoples and places, cultural heritage, cultural elements, ranging from the technological to the spiritual or aesthetic, which constitute

the sources from which communities sustain themselves. These are non-economic losses (that) may encompass some of societys most fundamental values, say James Morrissey and Anthony Oliver-Smith, yet they pose challenges for measurement and, as a result, may go unnoticed or unaddressed by policy. (13)

This is not just about sentimentality. Human beings are naturally bound to the place they call home, and from it, they draw strength and hope. It is on the basis of common identity that people come together to organize in behalf of their communities, continues Morrissey and Oliver-Smiths report. This is a core principle behind the concept of resilience.

A loss in human lives equals huge losses in resources, laments Department of Agriculture Undersecretary Segafredo Serrano: When we lose a few dozen, hundreds, then thousands of our people, productive people like fishermen, farmers throughout the population, we are losing resources. Once we stop treating deaths like statistics, the moment our attitude towards that changes, then I think the way we would act with regard to climate change is going to be different.

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WHATS BEING dONE: INITIATIvES ANd EFFOrTSP A r T 3

Indiscriminate use of the word impact has become more frequent lately, particularly among organizations and offices involved in climate change advocacies. To some experts, however, simply labeling changes and disasters as climate change impacts can be misleading and sometimes irresponsible.

According to Lourdes V. Tibig, The changes you see now are actually a combination of changes in the climate, which are naturally induced, and anthropogenic, human-induced. Its difficult to tease out the factors, she says, that will unequivocally point towards human-induced climate change as the culprit.

There are very limited local studies on climate change. There are impacts we have been seeing, but not necessarily due to climate change. Our vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate are defined by exposure, sensitivity to increases in temperature and/or changes in rainfall and adaptive capacity of communities. There are potential impacts of climate change (as reported by the IPCC AR5) which will be caused by the increasing rates of temperature increases. They could happen in the near future (15, 20 years from now) or later after the mid-21st century. And these will be local-specific, Tibig continues.

There also tends to be a misconception that climate change issues can be solved with a one-size-fits-all approach, such as, tree-planting, without generating better insights about specific circumstances impacts may be taking place in. Potential impacts are locally specific," Tibig says, "which is why you need observation and monitoring. For example, changes in temperature are not the same in all areas. But in some areas, the rise is faster.

Climate appropriations have increased 2.5 times in real terms and on average 26 percent annually, outpacing the growth of the national budget (around 6 percent). This increase shows government willingness to increase climate action, but the level of fund-ing based on projected needs is still low. The total climate appropriations correspond to about 0.3 percent of GDP, falling below the Stern review recommendations that countries should expend at least 2 percent of GDP to implement climate action. Climate Change Action and Mitigation Roadmap, inter-agency presentation, 2013

dEPArTMENT OF AGrICuLTurES AMIAOn January 25, 2013, DA Secretary Proceso Alcala issued a memorandum in support of the Climate Change Act of 2009 (R.A. 9729) outlining DAs four strategic objectives to make DAs plans and programs climate change compliant or climate proof. The memo also introduced the DAs seven systems-wide programs on climate change that includes the APEC-initiated Adaptation and Mitigation Initiatives in Agriculture (AMIA). (1)

The AMIAs objective was to increase understanding on strategies, impact, problems,and issues on mainstreaming climate change across functions and agencies in the DA. Key activities would include development of systems; enhancing DA management capacities; and LGU management training on CC, among others. (2)

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Maps from the Manila Observatory and Department of Environment and Natural Resources show parts of the country that are at risk to projected temperature increase, rainfall increase, and effects of El Nio.

W H A T S B E I N G d O N E : I N I T I A T I v E S A N d E F F O r T S

rISk TO PrOJECTEd rAINFALL CHANGE

rISk TO PrOJECTEd TEMPErATurE INCrEASE

rISk TO EL NIO

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FArMErS IN IGuIGI walked with Mang Sindatus son, who was my age. Each of us seemed to be carrying a heavy burden in our hearts, maybe because of the changes around us. The leaves started to wither and fall. I never again saw the same old tree under where my father and I used to rest. The brook had turned into a muddy slope from which only the carabaos benefit. Everything has changed The Dried Land (Migkamala A Inged) by Mubarak M. Tahir, Agam: Narratives on Uncertainty and Climate Change

Half an hour away from Tuguegarao is Iguig, a fourth-class municipality that takes the brunt of the provinces extreme weather conditions, with temperatures rising close to 42 degrees Celsius in the summer and 20 degrees or below during colder months.

Her mayor is Juditas Trinidad, whos held the seat for eight years, with a break from 2004 to 2009. Soft-spoken and straightforward, she speaks with genuine concern about her constituency: 30,000 people of whom 80 percent are farmers. One of their biggest challenges now, she says, is helping them cope and find supplemental income for the crops they lose due to increasing temperatures.

According to Trinidad, there are 10,820 hectares of arable land in Iguig. Thirty percent is devoted to corn, primarily along the Cagayan River, with some cornfields on higher land. Most are devoted to rice. The other areas are devoted to flowering vegetablessquash, patola, eggplant, a whopping 35 hectares for ampalaya. There is pride in Trinidads voice when she says that they supply these vegetables to Tugeegarao and Nueva Vizcaya, but resentment when she adds that they can also grow cabbage and sayote and not have to import from Vizcaya if we had better irrigation. Because of climate change, the quality is not so good. It used to be better when

the temperatures were okay. Now the quality and quantity is compromised.

Trinidad adds that though the farmers have been introduced to the term climate change, they dont refer to it. And why should they, when theyve been living with it and have been at the mercy of it all their lives, the rise and ebb of the seasons. Their intimacy with the phenomenon itself negates the need for labels.

What they need are solutions, and thats what the LGU is helping them find.

For an alternative source of livelihood, Trinidad has turned to the Department of Agriculture (DA) to provide goat demo farms to the farmers. The Livestock Enterprise Program from the DA will teach the farmers new and traditional ways of goat-raising and farming. Goats are easy to take care of, says Trinidad. Just tie them to a post, let them graze on grass and leaves. And they give birth every five months so you can have two new batches in a year.

Each demo farm will have five does and one buck. Sheep is another alternative, since there is a demand for its meat, says Trinidad. These are better than pigs, which consume a lot of feeds that the farmers cannot afford and are given antibioticsnot good, she says.

Another option is the kabir chicken, a large native breed that only costs P50 a pullet. It likewise does not need feeds, and can grow up to three kilos. This is what were coming up with for the farmers. When they fall sick, for example, the problem falls onto the LGU. We have to help them earn supplemental income.

But the farmers of Iguig are tillers of the soil, first and foremost. And it is water they need most. What the National Irrigation Administration redirects from the Cagayan River is not enough.

Windmills can help, she adds, which can water a whole hectare of vegetables. And research on what rice variety will grow even when its hot and dry.

Government should be serious about irrigation,

COPING WITH SOI: TWO STOrIES

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says Trinidad. (It appears) they dont pay much attention to the budget for irrigation. They should remember we are an agricultural country, basically.

We have not yet graduated to processing. Eighty percent of the people here are farmers, and the lifeblood of farmers is water.


FISHErMEN ALONG THE COASTThe awareness of climate change, much more SOI, and preparedness levels about its potential impacts are at 56 percent throughout the coastal municipalities in Cagayan Valley; 20 percent have no knowledge at all. This, according to a report prepared by Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR)-Region 2, Department of Science and Technology-Region 2, and Cagayan State University for Kuroshio Science. The report focused on the region because of its unique geographic location and climatic conditions; located at the tip of the archipelago, it serves as a gateway for typhoons, making the coastal communities vulnerable yet resilient. (3)

Theres not much knowledge, especially about SOI, Evelyn Ame, lead author of the paper, and BFAR research director, says, even if the people involved in the study encounter its impacts periodically. Flooding causes the most suffering among the communities. Environmental degradation is also present due to mining and insufficient landfills for household waste. The communities are also aware of saltwater intrusion and erosion, but do not attribute it to climate. They are perceived as natural occurring incidents, says the report.

The report describes unequivocally the deficit in understanding, much less confronting, the problem: The expertise and facilities as they exist now are insufficient for providing reliable predictions of climate change and its impact on different sectors at

national and local levels.The loss in livelihood among fisherfolk has been

most felt over the past 10 years, says Ame (save for those from Sta. Ana, Cagayan, which is now an industrial community that provides alternative jobs for ex-fishermen).

While erosion has literally washed away their boats and homes, the lengthened summers have given them a new source of income: the red algae known as gracilaria.

Seaweeds are usually seasonal, they (grow only in the) summer, says Ame. So when the summer period extends, the availability of the seaweed becomes all year round. Before, they could only harvest in February, when there were no more storms. Now they can harvest as early as December.

Unique to the region, Cagayan is neck and neck with Bicol as its no. 1 producer of gracilaria in Luzon.

But like the soil tillers in Iguig, the fisherfolk of Cagayans coastline remain bound to what they know and love: fishing.

A major hindrance to reclaiming their livelihoods is financial assistance. Some municipalities need stronger dike systems, while all need more education about preparing for disasters, and better options for housing and where to shelter.

Weve asked them what they need, Ame says. Their primary answer is: early warning system. They need it to prepare before the floods come. Some have TVs, but there are barangays and places that have no communication whatsoever. Theyre not well-informed.

References:1. http://www.da.gov.ph/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1233:memorandum-urgent-implementation-of-the-da-climate-

change-policy-thrusts-and-programs&catid=107:climate-change2. DA Systems-Wide Programs (SWPS): Objectives Presentation, AMIA-DA Philippines

3. Economic Analysis of Climate Change Adaptation Options in Selected Coastal Areas of Cagayan, Philippines, Evelyn C. Ame, Rowena Guzman, Jezreel Pataguan, Kuroshio Science, 2014

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WHAT NEEdS TO BE dONEP A r T 4

There must be a shift from the current fixation largely addressing effects of extreme events to managing the potential loss and risks of slow onset impacts, as these pose equal, if not bigger and potentially more irreparable, damage. There is a glaring and urgent need to not only create and rely on paper approaches (1), but also to identify and build processes that will work from the grassroots up, to meet the challenges of SOI.

It will not be easy. After all, the timing and severity of SOI is uncertain. But peoples lives must be saved, culture and livelihoods preserved, and progressas much as feasibleuninterrupted. To achieve this scenario, the first step is clear: do the research. Generate far more research. Acknowledge that carefully collated scientific data is fundamental to more effective governance in response to climate change. Because knowledge must ultimately take practical, pro-active form.

This paper identifies eight recommendations on how policy-makers, community leaders, and members from the private sector can meet the challenge of SOI. It must be reiterated that these are not unrelated suggestions; like an impact chain, each recommendation will benefit from others when executed well.

O N C L I M A T E C H A N G ELeoncio A. Amadore, PhD, former director of the Philippine

Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) says: The present state of knowledge in the country on climate change is still far from being complete. My view is that we have, if ever, barely scratched the surface of it. Research on the social, economic, environmental dimensions and effects of climate change on the natural and human systems of this country is in order, to be followed by science-based adaptation measures. Studies on the physical science basis or causes of climate change should also be supported and enhanced in terms of observational equipment, technical know-how, capacity building and development.

According to climatologist and meteorologist Lourdes V. Tibig : The first requirement of research is an adequate network of weather-monitoring stations, including tidal gauges so we can start. You cannot just measure rainfall, or just temperature. And you need regular observations throughout the year. Also, she adds, Peoples opinions vary. There is no way to distinguish if what locals are saying is correct because there are no weather observations by which a communitys perceptions of impacts can be referenced to. We cannot synthesize what isnt there.

One needs at least 30 years of data, according to Tibig, from which to derive models and predict possible impacts of climate change.

With regard to sea level rise and sea temperatures, for example, the Philippines has only four tide stations registered under the Global Ocean Sea Level System for worldwide tidal scientific studies: Manila, Cebu, Legazpi (Albay), and Davao tide stations. The Cebu one dates back to 1935, the others, 1947. (2)

rESEArCH. MONITOrING, dATABASE GENErATION, dOCuMENTATION, NEW EQuIPMENT, ANd TECHNOLOGy: vIEWS FrOM THE ExPErTS

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The most recent finding is that sea level rise has accelerated. Thats the global assessment... if you base it on AR4 (3), sea level rise is already on the higher end of the projections, says Tibig. There are places where the impacts will be faster, like in small islandsbut you dont know which one, she adds, reiterating that scientific models that can predict storm surges will also save coastal communities, she says.

Rosa Perez, PhD, another member of the IPCC, also says more value should be given to R&D. Some phenomena (like the decline in agriculture and lack of farmers) may be explained by social research, some by science. What matters is research. Not even the most sophisticated of equipment will be able to explain to you the movements or behavior of storms, she says. The answers lie in R&D.

Have a good databasethe physical, the social, the economics. You need to use all this data to search for an interconnectedness so that you can make a forecast, and what impacts it might bring. Others measure hazards, thats physical. But what about impact on communities, the ecosystem? You need to know everything.

All national agencies involved with climate change initiatives, says Tibig, should share in this database. This will help avoid use of contentious data.

Research in climate projections, for example, can help barangays prioritize their needs and plans. Research on clean energy sources can help mitigate our dependence on coal plants, which is one of the most insidious perpetrators of anthropogenic climate and environmental hazards.

Just as important, Tibig suggests, is that after the research is done, it goes to a clearing house. There, highlights of the research will be extracted, so that the next researchers will not have to repeat what already has been done. You build on what was already there. Each research initiative should build on that.

There are very little study on impacts, especially in Asia. We have so many problems, but one basic problem is our lack of research, she says.

O N I N F r A S T r u C T u r EUndersecretary Serrano says, At DA, what wed

like to develop initially is a research-negative list. We must be able to initially identify things that we should no longer do.

One of those things is to stop building farm-to-market roads that are not designed to withstand the variations in storms or floods in certain locales. Not only are they a waste of money, but the economic costs fall below negative as they do not generate net value to the people.

With the right research and development and infrastructure that can withstand extreme events, you can also prepare an array of projected slow onset impacts such as slow onset events, says Serrano. Engineers, for example, can then incorporate your projections from scenarios for slow onset events with your basic specifications for infrastructure. And that can be your formula for adjustments.

Research is needed to develop efficient infrastructure for a developing country.

O N F O O d S E C u r I T yWeather stations will also help farmers plan

their cropswhat to plant, and when, says Undersecretary Serrano. According to him, the DA has about 150-plus stations. We need more. Thousands. We need to develop a technology for the future, he adds. In the case of crops, he points out, if were talking of loss in yield and loss in farm lands, we need to determine what crops are feasible to save. Because there are those that are no longer feasible. With the feasible ones, with current technology and with our resources, you can prepare actually for (different environment scenarios). In fact, he says, the DA has already developed a submarine variety of rice, one that can withstand

W H A T N E E d S T O B E d O N E

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inundation. Instead of sticking to low yielding crops, he says,

research can allow you to have a variety that would have a higher yield than your current variety thats not adaptable to that environment.

Irrigation and precipitationthrough a process like evapotranspirationcan also be developed for areas that lack water, like in soil-atmosphere coupling experiments. So mostly you get your moisture from the atmosphere and the soil, explains Serrano. Another, cheaper variety of crop would be one which can extract its own nitrogen requirements from the atmosphere.

Robust argument, good evidence and sound technical analysisthese are ingredients that can convince. Research is the backbone of political buy-in, which is crucial in the formulation of policies geared towards the SOI agenda.

COMPrEHENSIvE LANd uSE PLANNINGA deeper understanding of Comprehensive

Land Use Planning, or CLUP, will help prevent desertification, says Dr. Rosa Perez. She urges the importance of reinvigorating agriculture and preventing erroneous conversion of land. You have to re-invigorate agriculture to prevent degradation of soil, that also adds to greenhouse gas emissions like methane and carbon dioxide, she says.

It would be wise also to include the barangay in the CLUP analysis, should there be infrastructure planned to be built on certain land.

Its important for farmers to also know where not to plant. If an area is susceptible to extreme events, then dont plant there. Encourage them to farm somewhere else where its not so vulnerablegive them incentives, says Serrano. To support this plan,

the DA has proposed the usage of drone technology to quickly assess damage and monitor susceptible areas.

EduCATION/AWArENESS rAISINGSOI is not one stand-alone problem; it presents

a host of problems that can spread and spiral into potentially irreversible catastrophes.

Education or knowledge management should be part of the governments initiatives about SOI, says Dr. Perez. Awareness-raising, so that they know this is not so simplethis can branch out into many things. Like for example soil degradation from (wrong) CLUP, that can result into a dip in agriculture, which will affect food security, and then health and personal safety of people.

Our educational system, for one, should bring back science into the early grades. If your general population has a good science education, making them understand this and the basic ingredients of natural phenomenon is going to be a cinch; it's not going to be a subject of a lot of misinterpretation and superstition, says Serrano.

Universities should also consider including climate topics in their agriculture courses. The main elements of climate change should come naturally to an agriculturist or somebody working in agriculture. But unfortunately it does not, Serrano says.

Amadore states: Public education campaigns through the inclusion of climate change topics in school curricula (can help). The academes mandate/role/forte as educators and researchers are ideal for climate change and SOI innovative information and research activities.

Beyond the academic slant, Serrano says


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ownership of data by the local communities are essential. They should be enabled in evaluating the data from their weather stations (or whatever data is generated or gathered by their community). Farmers and communities need to be able to understand this, so that after some period of time, there is relative precision and intimacy and insights from the data, thats important. The communities should be able to marry insights with the forecasts fed to them from media, for example. What value does that hold for a farmer in Bukidnon, when all he wants to know is if hell plant tomatoes or lettuce? That kind of weather information intimacy is important.

Amadore sums up: One way the government can help raise awareness about climate change is through traditional Information, Education, Communication (IEC) conducted in using modern technology; and a persistent public information campaign though seminars, workshops, the social media.

rOLE OF LOCAL GOvErNMENT uNITS (LGus)LGUs are at the core of activities that can support

communities cope with SOI. First, they can help in research by documenting

and collecting data. You can use this in the future to make assessments (and note trends), especially if the data is collected over a long period of time says Perez. This is also vital in decision-making.

The LGU should be, first of all, the target for the IEC on climate change and SOI, before they can implement/echo them to their constituents/areas and incorporate them in their barangay-, municipal- and provincial-level development and contingency plans, says Amadore.

Being the center of activity, notes Perez, the LGUs should be hands-on and work together. They should

be involved especially with infrastructure, and the analysis and planning if certain structures should be built on certain land (as in CLUP).

COOrdINATIONGreater effort must be given to true collaboration

and harmonization between agencies. Collaboration between ministries is also

important, integration of governance and institutions across levels and sectors; locating responsibility for climate risk management in a central ministry may help facilitate adaptationThe effectiveness of institutional arrangement often depends on location within the national government, degree of decentralization, multisectoral participation, political support and share of national budget granted to the institution. (4)

Its difficult, says Tibig. We can maximize so much on the research we have, except that there is no coordination between research institutionsits a shame because some researches that should be shared can (shed light to the bigger picture).

INvESTING IN PEOPLEThe limitless resource we have is our people, says

Serrano. We have to take good care of them, instead of seeing them as a problem. People are our assets.

Seeing people as assets means we have to value them by investing in technology and knowledge for them. The more you delay in the framing of a plan on how to adapt the slow onset events including loss and damage, wed better be prepared for losing more


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thousands of people. Its like a massive leakage of our own national resources, he says.

From a research point of view, Perez says the government should start supporting scientists in order to carry out further research. Maybe then, these talented minds would not have to take on work from other countries in order to earn a living, and give up the rights to the work that could have been the Philippines.

Tibig, for one, says Filipino scientists should be trained in using specific instruments for projections, which also furthers the SOI agenda. The people attending these regional efforts should be able to focus on this so they can do it, she says.

vALuES ANd vISIONWouldnt it be grand if our political masters

viewed their service as a legacy thing, as Serrano puts it. Turn(ing) over to the next administration a system that is better enabled and more agile in responding.

That could happen with a longer lifespan on line item budgeting, which is only prescribed one year. The medium-term plan of six years is also too short to create and implement changes that go hand in hand with a very deliberate vision (that draws on) learning from the insights of the past and what you see as trends that we face in the future, says Serrano.

Six years, for example, is too short to finish map overlays for the countrys 7,107 islands, which present just as many local situations.

A long-term vision is also needed to gain confidence in the people. An engaged audience is an involved audience. Showing them that the government works for them and listens to them, and is willing to share information with them, is at the same time a confidence building measure that arouses inquisitiveness and therefore the information seeking behavior among people.

Part of this confidence is also built by respecting peoples indigenous traditions and natural habitat, and encouraging them to keep it. This will help keep cultures intact, as well as helping curb the potential impacts of climate change. Islands that have mangroves to protect their shorelines against storm surges and floods, for example, have zero casualties during storms. They are living testaments to indigenous wisdom, says Serrano.

COMMuNICATIONA common language and attention to accurate

messaging is essential in formulating policies on SOIwhich, as this paper reveals, itself has common but not the same definitions among different groups.

What may be trivial to some is actually quite importanteven life-saving, if one recalls how officials failed to define storm surge before Yolanda hit.

Imprecision and mislabeling can be fatal, remarks Serrano. Because to us Filipinos, words mean a lot.


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Like the timing and severity of SOI, the level of funding that might be required to manage loss and damage related to it is highly uncertain and varies greatly from country to country and region. However, the earlier the approaches are put into place, to manage SOI hazards, the lower the costs and higher the benefits. (5)

Dr. Amadore pegs a figure for SOI research: An initial fund of P500 million (ball-park estimate, of course) for climate change studies in the area of risk assessment and climate change adaptation; nature, characteristics, impacts of climate change-induced extreme events, SOI, and corresponding adaptation measures.

From this P500M, hypothetically, one can build a databasethe physical, the social, the economicsfrom which will be derived an estimate for the next phase. On the second iteration, you can already make adjustments, says Dr. Perez. But now, we have no idea how much is needed really.

Thats not counting the weather stations needed for more data gathering and forecasting, of which the DA needs thousands. Depending on the complexity of the station, the price can range from below a hundred dollars to a few thousand.

How do we get that money?Athena Ballesteros, project manager of

Institutions and Governance at World Resources Institute, says: One of the best entry points is to engage with those who are designing and programming adaptation and resilience building activities for developing countries. These would include multilaterals like the World Bank and Asian Development Bank; bilaterals including German development cooperation or the UKs Department

for International Development and dedicated climate change funds such as the Peoples Survival Fund for the Philippines, and Green Climate Fund/Adaptation Fund and Global Environment Fund at international levels.

According to Ballesteros, honing in on the following will steer the support on these funders agenda:

Upstream policy level when setting norms and guidelines for what constitute adaptation funding priorities so they go beyond adaptation in the areas of Disaster Risk and Reduction but factor in scientific and knowledge management of SOI. This should be included in the intended outcomes of financing for climate change adaptation (e.g., putting action against SOI as a key result area in the performance management framework or any results management framework).

But the onus of SOI in the Philippines predominantly falls on our local lawmakers. Ballesteros agrees that attention should also be paid to research.

Congress should carve out a good percentage of the national budget for scientific research, especially on agriculture to predict SOI in specific sectors that will be affected; this should include investment in technologies and software, e.g. for modeling and spatial analysis as well as early warning systems, she says.

Other agencies would also do well in integrating SOI in their plans. Critical government ministries such as DA, DENR*, DOE and DOTC should ensure (that they) mainstream climate change and factor in the effect of SOIs in their departments strategic plans and budget; same for DILG.

THE rOLE OF AdAPTATION FINANCE IN MANAGING SOI

REFERENCES:1. Loss & Damage: The Theme of Slow Onset Impact, August 2012, Linda Siegele

2. National Report of the Philippines, May 2006, Oceanography Division, Coast and Geodetic Survey Depart-ment, National Mapping and Resource Information Authority, Nurelius G. Baloran3. AR 4: Assessment Report 4, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007

4, 5. Loss & Damage: The Theme of Slow Onset Impact, August 2012, Linda Siegele *Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), Department of Energy (DOE), Department of

Transportation and Communication (DOTC), Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG)

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BY INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SUSTAINABLE CITIES

WRITTEN BY REGINA ABUYUAN FOR icSc

EDITED BY RENATO REDENTOR CONSTANTINO AND KAIROS DE LA CRUZ

INFOGRAPHICS BY WILSON ALINEA

LAY OUT BY ANGELO A. MANALO

PHOTOGRAPHY BY VEEJAY VILLAFRANCA FOR icSc

Unit 32 Cubao Expo, No. 68 Brgy. Socorro,Gen. Romulo Ave., Cubao, Quezon City(02)-709-12-58www.ejeepney.org

Opening quote from The Guardian-UK, March 27, 2014The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the views of Christian Aid, which provided the support

that made this report possible.

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The specific mix of climate change impactsepisodic and slow onsetwill vary from place to place, and from year to year; impacts will be nonlinear over time. High inter-annual variability and increasing unpredictability will be a crosscutting pattern characterizing climate change in the Philippines.

This is a compelling argument against centralized, cookie-cutter type of approaches from the national governmentparticularly in agriculture, the most climate-sensitive sector. Rather, the first best and, maybe, only response to nonlinearity and unpredictability is to strengthen adaptive capacities of

communitiesstrengthening human capabilities and building on local coping mechanisms. Certain types of information, technology, and research may be best produced or financed at the national level, but the delivery and application of these public goods require local knowledge, flexibility, and customization. Certainly, planning capacity will be critical, if not essential, to the adaptive potential of localities. In order to avoid fragmented local responses to climate change and clumsy, ineffective, one-size-fits-all national programs, interventions at the provincial level will be central to building climate change resilience at the local level.

EMPOWEr PrOvINCES!

Natural Hazard and Climate Change by Red Constantino and Toby Monsod, from 2012/2013 Human Development Report by the Philippine Human Development Network.

Download the full report at http://ejeepney.org/pdf/2012-2013-PHDR.pdf

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