ibm business perspective 2012...> 3x major market growth rate the world’s 10 fastest growing...
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© 2009 IBM Corporation
IBM Business Perspective 2012
Patricia MurphyVice President, Investor Relations
Certain comments made in this presentation may be characterized as forward looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are based on the Company's current assumptions regarding future business and financial performance. Those statements by their nature address matters that are uncertain to different degrees. Those statements involve a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. Additional information concerning these factors is contained in the Company's filings with the SEC. Copies are available from the SEC, from the IBM web site, or from IBM Investor Relations. Any forward-looking statement made during this presentation speaks only as of the date on which it is made. The Company assumes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. These charts and the associated remarks and comments are integrally related, and they are intended to be presented and understood together. Information regarding the Company's financial roadmap including interim periods, which was previously communicated to investors, is being presented for purposes of historical information and is not being updated during this presentation.
In an effort to provide additional and useful information regarding the Company’s financial results and other financial information as determined by generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), these materials contain certain non-GAAP information including "operating earnings" and other "operating" financial measures. The rationale for management’s use of this non-GAAP information, the reconciliation of that information to GAAP, and other related information are included as Attachment II (“Non-GAAP Supplemental Materials”) to the Company’s Form 8-K dated May 9, 2012, Form 8-K dated July 18, 2012, and in the information entitled “Non-GAAP Supplemental Materials” that is posted on the Company’s investor relations web site at http://www.ibm.com/investor/events/pmurphy0612/.
Agenda
�Strategy and Historical Performance
�2015 Roadmap
�Appendix: IBM Growth Initiatives
1
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Growth Markets
Major Markets
2010-2015CAGR
~ 8%
3-4%
~ 2%
Source: IBM Market Insights analysis, using GMV1H12 (Jan 2012)
% Growth
Total Markets
The industry economics have changed over time
Total IT Growth at Constant Currency
2
IBM has been moving to higher value areas, with more of our revenue and profit in annuity businesses
** Stock-based compensation expense was not recorded at the segment level and excludes Enterprise Investments
% of Segment Profit*
2000** 2011
Hardware/Financing Services Software
35%
38%
27%
16%
41%
44%
Annuity vs Transactional Revenue
60%40%
Transactional Annuity
52%48%
Annuity vs Transactional Profit***
* Sum of external segment pre-tax income not equal to IBM pre-tax income
*** Certain expenses allocated 3
We have become a globally integrated enterprise, capitalizing on markets with high growth potential
Growth Markets % of IBM Geographic Revenue*
2010
17%
18%
19%
21%
22%
2007
2008
2009
16%2006
11%2000
2011
* Revenue mix percentages exclude divestitures (PCD, Printers)
Major Markets Growth Markets
4
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
Our shift to higher value, global integration and productivity has driven superior financial results
Acquisitions
Capital
Share Repurchase
Dividends
Primary Uses of Cash $BOperating Pre-tax Income Margin and Free Cash Flow $B
6.7
16.6
10.1%
20.2%
Free Cash FlowOperating Pre-tax Income Margin
5
Agenda
�Strategy and Historical Performance
�2015 Roadmap
�Appendix: IBM Growth Initiatives
6
11%
CAGR
~$50B returned through share
repurchase
Revenue Growth
2010 Operating
EPS*
Revenue Mix
Enterprise
Productivity
Margin Mix
Shares
2015 Operating
EPS*
$11.67
At Least
$20
Operating Leverage
~$2.50
~$3.05
IBM’s 2015 Roadmap: at least $20 of Operating EPS
Acquisitions
* Non-GAAP: Excludes acquisition-related charges and non-operating retirement-related expense
Assumes current tax policy and Non-GAAP tax rate of 25%
Enterprise Productivity
yields margin expansion
Shift to a higher value portfolio continues to
provide leverage
Shift to faster growing business mix provides ~1% revenue growth
Base revenue growth ~2%excluding
divestitures
~$20B of acquisition spend
provides ~2% revenue growth
Base Revenue
Growth
7
~$2.80
$11.67
2015Operating EPS
Revenue Growth
~$3.05
Share Repurchase
Operating Leverage
Key initiatives support the revenue and profit objectives…
Business AnalyticsGrowth Markets
Smarter Planet
Cloud
Contributes ~$7B of growth over roadmap
2011: ~50% yr/yr
Contributes ~$7B of revenue, of which ~$3B is incremental growth
2011: 2.8x growth
Approaches 30% of IBM’s geographic revenue by 2015
2011: 16% yr/yr(11% @CC)
Contributes ~$6B of growth over roadmap
2011: 16% yr/yr
8
~$6B ~$3B ~$7B ~$17B
~$50B
i
2010Revenue from Key Initiatives
2015Revenue from Key Initiatives
Double-digit yr/yr growth
2011~$3B
~$2B~$2B
~$0.2B
+$6B
Incremental Cloud
GrowthMarkets
SmarterPlanet
Business Analytics
$13.44
…and contribute $20B of revenue growth through 2015
~$30B
$11.67
2015Operating EPS
Revenue Growth
~$3.05
Share Repurchase
Operating Leverage
9
10%15%
20%
2%2%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Yr1 Yr2 Yr3 Yr4 Yr5
PTI
Ma
rgin
� Scalable intellectual property
� Key to solutions offerings
� Drive synergies through global distribution
-20%
Forward Looking Revenue Growth Estimates
Forward Looking PTI Margin Estimates
We have allocated $20B for acquisitions…
$11.67
2015Operating EPS
RevenueGrowth
~$3.05
Share Repurchase
Operating Leverage
10
20%
30%
10% 10% 10%
0%
15%
30%
45%
Yr1 Yr2 Yr3 Yr4 Yr5
Re
ve
nu
e Y
r/Y
r%
27%23%
18%
11%
PTI Margin Margin excl. amortization of intangibles and acquisition-related charges
…with investments aligned to key themes
$11.67
2015Operating EPS
RevenueGrowth
~$3.05
Share Repurchase
Operating Leverage
11
Servers, Networking &
Storage Optimization
Cloud
Smarter Planet
Governance, Risk,
Compliance & Security
Smarter Cities
Complements Organic Assets
GTS Service Delivery
IBM Hardware Portfolio
GBS BAO Service Line
8 Analytics Solution Centers
Industry Solutions Frameworks
IBM Hardware Portfolio
GBS Offerings
Business Intelligence & Data Analytics
Smarter Commerce
Acquisitions since 2010
2000** 2011 2015eHardware/Financing Services Software
* Sum of operating segment pre-tax income not equal to IBM operating pre-tax income
** Stock-based compensation expense was not recorded at the segment level and excludes Enterprise Investments
IBM expands margins through a shift to higher value…
$11.67
2015Operating EPS
Revenue Growth
~$3.05
~$2.50
Operating Leverage
Share Repurchase
% of Operating Segments Profit*
12
35%
38%
~13%
~36%
~50%
27% = $2.6B41%
44% = $10B
16%
Enterprise Productivity Savings
� Continuous improvement leveraging analytics
� Locate work to where it best can be performed
� Focus integrated operations on high value advisory activities
2006-2010 2011-2015
$11.67
2015Operating EPS
Revenue Growth
~$3.05
~$2.50
Operating Leverage
Share Repurchase
…and enterprise productivity savings of $8 billion
~$6B
~$8B
~$85BSpendBase
13
End-to-End Process
Transformation
Shared Services
Integrated Operations
2011: $1.9B gross savings
Balance savings between reinvesting and driving margin performance
Model assumes 40% of gross savings to the bottom line
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12e'13e'14e'15e
Primary Uses of Cash $BFree Cash Flow $B
Approaches $100BFree Cash Flow
Supports ~$40B of Financial Flexibility
in 2015
2015 Roadmap
~$10B
6.7
16.6
We are leveraging our strong cash generation to invest in the business and return value to shareholders
$11.67
Revenue Growth
Share Repurchase
~$3.05
~$2.50
~$2.80
Operating Leverage
2015Operating EPS
14
2010 2011 2015
15% Yr/Yr
$11.67
$13.44
“At Least”
$20
2010-15 11% CAGR
* Non-GAAP: Excludes acquisition-related charges and non-operating retirement-related expense
Our 2011 performance puts us on track to our 2015 objective
Revenue � Double-digit performance across growth initiatives
� Growth Markets +11% Yr/Yr @CC
� Smarter Planet nearly 50% Yr/Yr
� Business Analytics +16% Yr/Yr
� Cloud 2.8x growth
� Strong performance of 22 acquisitions closed through 2011
Operating Leverage
� Margin performance in line with model
� Delivered $1.9 billion of Enterprise Productivity savings
Cash & Shareholder Return
� Generated $16.6 billion in free cash flow
� Returned over 100% to shareholders through share repurchase and dividends
Operating EPS*
15
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12e '13e '14e '15e
Hardware / Financing Services Software
Sum of external segment pre-tax income not equal to IBM pre-tax income
* Non-GAAP: Excludes acquisition-related charges and non-operating retirement-related charges
2000 & 2001 segments not restated for stock based compensation
Operating PTI / EPS *
Segment Operating PTI
Operating EPS
� Software contributes about half of our segment profit
� Growth initiatives deliver $20B in revenue growth
� Growth markets revenue approaches 30% of IBM’s geographic total
� Enterprise productivity delivers $8B in gross savings
� IBM returns $70B to shareholders over the roadmap
2015 Objectives
$3.32
$1.81
$13.44
“At Least”
$15.10
“At Least”
$20
The IBM transformation continues in the 2015 Roadmap
16
17
Agenda
�Strategy and Historical Performance
�2015 Roadmap
�Appendix: IBM Growth Initiatives
18
Over the 2015 Roadmap our growth initiatives deliver ~$20B of revenue growth
Business AnalyticsGrowth Markets
Smarter Planet
Cloud
Contributes ~$7B of growthover roadmap
Deliver integration and innovation to clients
Become the premier Globally Integrated Enterprise
Focus on open technologies and high-value solutions
19
Approaches 30% of IBM’s geographic revenue
by 2015
Contributes ~$6B of growthover roadmap
Grows to ~$7B business by 2015, of which ~$3B is incremental
Economic Rebalancing
Dem
ograp
hic
Shift
Urb
aniz
atio
n
8% growth in the growth markets IT opportunity through 2015*
> 3x major market growth rate
The world’s 10 fastest growing economies are all from
the growth markets countries
Asia and Africa will add 874 million urban residents
and expand their gross regional domestic product
by $20.7 trillion from 2010 to 2025
Over the next 5 years, China and India will each spend $1 trillion on infrastructure
Growth markets citizens are more mobile than ever - 90% of phones in Africa are cell phones
and ~2.4 billion mobile phone users are in BRIC countries
By 2030, 93% of the world’s middle class will be from emerging markets
Growth Markets provide an opportunity to capture growth and drive productivity
Growth Markets
20* IBM Market Insights analysis, using GMV1H12, Jan 2012
In 2012, growth markets economies will become the world’s largest importers and consumers
~$51B
~$47B
$1.9B
$2.2B
2010 2011
IBM’s business mix is shifting to the growth markets
10%
1%
11% 11%
2%
-6%
1% 2%
2008 2009 2010 2011
Growth Markets Major Markets
+8 pts
+8 pts
+10 pts +10 pts
Revenue Growth @ CC Geographic Gross Profit Bridge*
* Sum of geographic gross profit not equal to IBM gross profit
Growth Markets
Geographic Gross Profit
Growth Markets
Major Markets
Market Expansion
IT InfrastructureDevelopment
Industry Leadership
2010–2015 ~ $17B incremental revenue
Grow faster than market
Outpace Major Markets growth > 8 points
Drive margin expansion
Approach 30% of IBM geographic revenue
21
10,000messages/second from 100 million
active usersper source
By 2015,
1 Trillion connected
devices
In 5 years,
5.6 Billion personal
devices sold
Smarter Planet describes the emerging era of
computing
Unstructured data growing
800% in the next
5 years
Instrumented
Interconnected
Intelligent By 2020,business
transactions over the internet =
450 Billionper day
90% of the world’s data was created in the
past 2 years
Smarter Planet
22
• Expanded from 9 ���� 18 industries
• 52 industry solutions areas
• Smarter Commerce portfolio
• 17 solution areas, 5 software acquisitions
• 2,400 Smarter Cities engagements
• 8 key portfolio areas
IBM’s Smarter Planet is a collection of markets we’re making by driving new value for clients
Smarter Planet contributes $7B in revenue growth over the roadmap
Smarter Planet
2011 Progress…
BuyBuy MarketMarket
SellSellServiceServiceVP of
Customer Loyalty
Focus Industries
Smarter Cities
Business Functions
8,000engagements
~50%revenue growth
90%growth in software content
Reaching new buyers
Chief Procurement
Officer
Chief Marketing Officer
VP of Commerce Stores & Operations
23
Why analytics matters...
Finance organizations with business insight
All other enterprises
> 12x moreProfit
Growth
33% moreRevenue Growth
32% moreReturn on
Invested Capital
12.5%
9.4%7.3%
0.6%
11.9%
9.0%
Enabling our clients to turn oceans of data into
predictive models and actionable decisions
Source: IBM Global Business Services, The Global CFO Study 2010, 1H12 IBM Market Insights
Business Analytics
24
Analytics has evolved from business initiative to business imperative
$234 billionin total IT
opportunity by 2015
$76 billionin software opportunity
by 2015
IBM has built a broad portfolio of business analytics capabilities
A broad, deep set of analytics offerings
integrated by design
An enterprise-class big data platform that supports an end-to-end information management foundation
Integrated decision management capabilities that embed predictive analytics directly into organizational processes
$16 billionMore than $16B in acquisitions
to build the industry's most comprehensive
analytics portfolio
Business Analytics
20,000Unmatched experience gained from 20,000 client engagements
9,000Supported by nearly 9,000 consultants,
10,000 technical professionals
and 500+ patents
27,000Working with
27,000 partners and 5,000
universities to develop skills
IBM’s analytics business grows $6B to more than $16B by 201525
Cloud is transforming IT and opening new opportunities for IBM
Cloud Computing
Server management & administration costs
New server spending
2001
$130 B
2011
$217 B
Power and cooling costs
... and 25% growthin the
cloud opportunity through 2015*
Source: IDC Directions 2011: Game Changing Virtual Technology: Major Shifts and Innovations that will Forever Change your IT Business, March, 2011
* IBM Market Insights analysis, using GMV1H12, Jan 2012
Cloud delivers real value to clients ...
�Natural evolution of services delivery
�Enables self-service, sourcing options, and economies of scale
�Helps reduce growing server management and admin costs through automation and integration
26
IBM is leading the enterprise cloud market
4.5M daily client
transactions through IBM’s public cloud
~4,000successful
cloud engagements
in FY 2011
1Menterprise
application users working on the
IBM cloud
2.8X cloud revenue
growth in 2011
$100Bin commerce transactions
analyzed per year in the cloud
Cloud Computing
Commitment to open standards and a broad ecosystem
Private & Hybrid CloudsCloud Enablement Technologies
Managed Cloud ServicesInfrastructure and Platform as a Service
Cloud Business SolutionsSoftware and Business Process as a Service
Foundation Services Solutions
Cloud contributes ~$7B revenue ($3B incremental) to IBM in 201527
IBM brings unique capabilities
� Expertise across Services, Software, Hardware and Research
� Unified cloud platform with seamless integration across Private, Public and Hybrid
Cloud expands both IBM’s addressable
market opportunity and margin opportunity
� Both “born on the cloud” and traditional IT to cloud transformations
� Driving infrastructure and labor savings with standardization and automation of delivery, combined with a deep collection of value add offerings