I Like Scenarios

The evolution of ICT sector

Variables: Choose your place

Demand size:

• this is not an independent factor but is useful to have a global perspective.

Vertical vsHorizontal:

•very integrated big players cover almost all the value chain. horizontal players build up a complex value web.

Regional vs global:

•regional players can find their way competing with global companies operating in almost all the world

Regulation:

•Telco sector is still heavily regulated and the role of public initiative is key. Finding the right equilibrium will determine the sector netscape in the next decade

Confidence:

•confidence environment must be created. Personal data privacy, terrorist attacks, legal aspects on a virtual transnational landscape and even content rights

Sustainability:

•the world is facing an enormous challenge in dealing with progress and the global environmentand climate. The role of the ICT industry here is key

The scenario definition includes selecting a set of variables describing the market key axis. Combining these variables values we can define the global landscape and try to figure out how those axis are related.

Two main assumptions :•Global stability, no catastrophic events and global economic evolution following the OCDE and World Bank estimations.•Some viable business model will be identified and demand will be created and transformed in revenues. Finding those business model is by far the most challenging and inspiring part of the process. It is a "try and error" work with an enormous risks but a huge prize.

Outputs: set your plot

Demand size

Vertical

Global

Regulation

Confidence

Sustainability

Adjacent Industries

The battle for the body

The battle for the coach

Greener, leaner

Safer, healthier

Lifestyle services

Efficient ways

The output of our scenarios will be an estimation on market size for the next 10 year in € millions. Understanding how these figures evolve along time will help us in identifying the ruling market forces. And any player in this market field will need to include such forces in its long term strategy. The graphic shows the “Adjacent industries” market forces and the impacts on different subsectors

Data source: Asimelec “Sector TIC en España 2010”

Selected Plays

Fruitful cooperation

Fight of giants

Looking for some crumbs

A small agenda

Sustaining the world

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Images courtesy of: m0php, michaelaw, michelini, ju2an2003, clafouti, olivia, in http://www.sxc.hu