hzgd#18-a - hangzhou's climate change politics, climate governance and green city making
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Hangzhou Green Drinks HZGD#18-A Presentation Event 22Apr2013 Hangzhou's climate change politics, climate governance and green city making by Prof. Jørgen Delman from the University of CopenhagenTRANSCRIPT
Hangzhou’s climate change politics, climate governance and green city making
Hangzhou Green Drinks, Earth Day, 22.04.2013
Jørgen Delman, Professor
China Studies, Department for Cross-cultural and Regional Stiudies (ToRS)
University of Copenhagen
GHG emissions and China’s environmental crisis
China’s climate change politics
Cities and climate change
Hangzhou as a case – contextualising Hangzhou
My propositions
What Hangzhou does do to deal with climate change
Hangzhou’s green city making
Strenghts and possible weaknesses of Hangzhou’s approach
(Speculative) conclusion
Aim here
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
Background – Factors affecting China’s GHG emissions
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
China’s ecological footprint > China’s biocapacity
WWF (2010 ). China Ecological Footprint Report. Biocapacity, Cities and Development
Continued growth and China’s share in incremental energy demand, imports and energy-related CO2 emissions: 2000-2010 and 2008-2035
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Vedvarende energi
Naturgas
BNP
Energi
El kapacitet
CO2 emission
Kul
Olie
A-kraft
1990-2010
2010-2035
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
CO2 emissions
El. capacity
Energy
GDP
Natural gas
Renewable energy
From Odgaard & Delman 2013. Kilder: Egne beregninger med data fra International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2012, og International Energy Agency, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion – Highligths 2012.
China needs energy, not least coal for future growth
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
© 2012 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/nov/20/coal-plants-world-resources-institute
Do we know the full extent of China’s climate crisis?
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
Pollution levels much worse than government admits?
Guan, Dabo, Zhu Liu , Yong Geng, Sören Lindner, & Klaus Hubacek Nature Climate Change, (2012) | doi:10.1038/nclimate1560.
?
The cost of the ”China model”: Climate change is coming to China with a vengeance
Climate change is integrally linked with envionment and energy security in the national discourse
Cities are seens as key emitters of Greenhouse Gases (GHG)
But also as primary actors in finding solutions …… Climate change policies are being rolled out to city levels these years
China’s climate change politics
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
3600
CC policies
New ”green” development ”buzzwords” in 12 FYP
Sustainable development
Circular economy
Green transformation
Green development
Low carbon development
What China’s leadership says to deal with the environmental challenge
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
Towards a new development paradigm?
11th FYP Target (2010)
11th FYP Actual
result (2010)
12th FYP Target (2015)
Goal 2020
Share of non-fossil energy in primary energy (hydro, new renewables, nuclear)
10% (for RE only)
8.3% 11.4% 15%
Energy consumption per GDP unit (=energy intensity)
-20% -19.1% -16% -
CO2 emission per GDP unit (=carbon intensity)
- - -17% -40% to -45%
Share of non-fossil fuel sources (excl. hydro power and nuclear) in total electricity consumption
1% 1.2% - 3%
Forest coverage 20% 20.4% 21.7% 23%
Green tech’s contribution to GDP (incl. biotechnology and IT)
- 5% 8% 15%
Selected climate change and RE targets in the Five Year Plans and accompanying Long- and Medium Term Plans
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies Table 1 - Selected targets in the Five Year Plans and accompanying Long- and Medium Term Plans
Odgaard & Delman 2012
Note: By ‘energy consumption’ is meant gross energy consumption. The only exception is the 2020 target on 15% non-fossil energy, which is defined according to final energy consumption. The share of non-fossil fuels in electricity consumption is only for large utilities with a capacity above 5,000 MW – and this target is indicative, not binding. Sources: NDRC 2007; State Council 2011; APCO 2011; RED 2011; Hu 2009
Cities and climate change
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
Cities responsible for
70-80 %
of global GHG emissions
The conventional wisdom
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
OECD 2009
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
What do we measure?
Doodman, D. (2009). Blaming cities for climate change? An analysis of urban greenhouse gas enmissions inventories. Environment and Urbanization. 21-1 185-201
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
WB 2012
Measure city aggregates or average per capita?
Many cities have lower per capita emissions than residents in other places of that particular country
Boundary problems
Now, production rather than consumption based measurements, e.g. aviation and shipping not included
Polluting production easily shifted to other places (outside the cities or to other countries)
However: cities are effective units of implementation and host the majority of the world population
Cities are problematic units to measure but necessary for effective policy implementation
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
Hangzhou as a case – contextualising Hangzhou
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
Zhejiang in comparison
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
HSBC 2010
Hangzhou in comparative perspective - 1
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
HSBC 2010
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
Hangzhou in comparative perspective - 2
HSBC 2010
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
HSBC 2010
23 of China’s top 500 companies /Forbers
Predictions of CO2 emissions per household in 2026
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
Zheng, Siqi et al. (2009)- The Greenness of China : Household Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Urban Development. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 15621
My propositions
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
Governance theory applied to China
Government cannot do everything
Governance seen as a response to the accelerated fragmenting of the party-state system
Neo-liberal approach to execution of government: small state, PPP, outsourcing
State, business, and society are not apart, mutually embedded
New flexible and adaptive party-state approach - new mode of government through governance innovations with new tools to make the policy cycle more effective:
Inclusion, participation of business and [civil] society
Outsourcing
Public-private partnerships
Other hybrid regimes
Climate politics: new modes of government?
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
Proposition
Climate change politics as a potential game changer
towards more inclusive and participatory
politics/governance innovations
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?hl=da&newwindow=1&tbo=d&rlz=1T4ADFA_daCN487CN487&biw=1600&bih=607&tbm=isch&tbnid=Hw0t6wy7pG2bMM:&imgrefurl=http://www.ecofriend.com/shenzhen-s-sbf-tower-bespeaks-green-lifestyle-and-sustainablity.html&docid=y7yGg-2by2ZqwM&imgurl=http://ecofriend.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/sbf-tower-by-hans-hollein-1_N89uf_18770.jpg&w=550&h=550&ei=jqW9UI_4KuX44QSfqYC4BQ&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=720&vpy=105&dur=2123&hovh=224&hovw=224&tx=141&ty=134&sig=114113794870874226293&page=1&tbnh=129&tbnw=129&start=0&ndsp=30&ved=1t:429,r:5,s:0,i:97
A huge bundle of comprehensive policies…..
Eco-civilization
Low-carbon development
Developing low-carbon urban planning, incorporating economic structural changes
Low-carbon policies for energy conservation and renewable energy = low carbon energy mix
Low carbon sector plans, programs, projects
Stimulate R&D and innovation in low-carbon industries
Low carbon consumption: Green lifestyle and green management systems
Establish GHG emission database, management, and monitoring systems
International experiences and collaboration
What Hangzhou does to deal with climate change
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
People’s Daily online 19.8.2010;
http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbtz/2010tz/t20100810_365264.htm
3600
CC policies
Category 2005 2010 2015 2020
1 Reduction of CO2/GDP per unit
and district (t./10.000 CNY)* --- ---- [-40%] [-50%]
2 Third sector share(%) 44.1 48.7 54 60
3 Energy use/GDP per unit and
district (t./10.000 CNY)* 0.87 0.68 0.55 -
4 Low carbon R&D cost as
percentage of total R&D cost (%) 2.5 4 5.5 7
5 Share of non-fossil fuel in total
primary energy consumption (%) 3.7
5.8 (2009)
10 15
6 Share of cars using new energy
or saving energy (%) 5 9 15 20
7
Share of existing buildings that
have undertaken energy savings
measures (%)
3 23 50 75
8
Share of built up area using
renewable energy in newly
constructed buildings (%)
5 19 40 60
9 Forest mass (10.000 m3) 4,000 4,224 4,650 5,000
10 Share of green areas in urban
built up areas (%) 37.31 40.0 42 45
11 Share of green travel (%) 26 31 35 40
12 Sorting of garbage (%) 0 18 50 80
Hangzhou - key low carbon development targets, 2005-2020
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
‘Traditional’ implemenation mechanisms
Authoritarian: top-down command-type approaches
Fragmented: Competitive approaches between different vertical bureacratic agencies (ministries in Beijing)
Integrative mechanisms:
Party in charge: CC leading group (headed by city party secretary)
CC targets part of local leaders’ KPIs
Governance innovations
New paradigmatic thinking?
Involvement of third parties:
Mobilization of and support to intermediaries
Mobilize enterprises and business groups
Community and citizen participation/involvement
KPIs for climate change and social participation
Climate governance in Hangzhou
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
Strong in competition for attention and resources:
Hangzhou as a first mover in national competition: strong self- assertiveness
Harmonization of city brand: ”City of quality life!
Governance approach to branding community
But ”green” elements not fully integrated in city brand (maybe wisely?)
Hangzhou’s green city making – game changing tool?
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
Strengths
Started early, considerable experience
Aligned with national policies and approach
Strong conceptual approach
Strong self-assertiveness
Party Secretary in charge
Recognition of need for new types of state-society interaction
Strenghts and possible weaknesses of Hangzhou’s approach
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
Possible weaknesses
Policy overload
Lack of recognition of the importance of climate change politics at local level; KPIs not taken seriously
Lack of sustained leadership (tenure rush 赶任期)
Selective policy implementation
Real willingnes to empower businesses and societal stakeholders?
”Green” brand unrealistic: lack of public awareness
Party-state’s response is constructive: New paradigmatic thinking?
Climate politics as game changer?
Climate governance: From environmental authoritarianism to more ”democratic” environmentalism (cf. Gilley 2012), i.e. pluralism (more voices are heard, more actors involved)
(Speculative) conclusion
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies