hvs denver - university of colorado boulder · ‐4‐ 60.0% 61.0% 62.0% 63.0% 64.0% 65.0% 2012...
TRANSCRIPT
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‐ 2 ‐
Strategy Work: Client Feedback
AUGUST 2015
A deeper look at what our clients say about us…
SUPERIOR RESULTS THROUGHUNRIVALED HOSPITALITYINTELLIGENCE. EVERYWHERE
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‐ 3 ‐
NATIONAL HISTORICAL & FORECAST MARKET PERFORMANCE
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‐ 4 ‐
60.0%
61.0%
62.0%
63.0%
64.0%
65.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 f 2016 F 2017 f 2018 f
Nation’s Occupancy Expected to Stabilize in the Next Three Years
Forecast
Source: HVS & STR
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‐ 5 ‐
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
$140.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 f 2016 F 2017 f 2018 f
ADR RevPAR Forecast
Nation’s ADR & RevPAR Expected to Increase in the Next Two Years
Source: HVS & STR
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‐ 6 ‐
NATIONAL NEW SUPPLY
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‐ 7 ‐
As of September 2015, Over 3,500 Hotels Were in Different Stages of Development in the U.S.
Source: STR
53,691
1,002
1,515
1,082
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Existing
Under Construction
Final Planning
Planning
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‐ 8 ‐
NATIONAL HOTEL VALUE EXPECTATIONS
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‐ 9 ‐
Values Expected to Dip Slightly as a Result of the Increase in New Supply
‐4.14%
‐14.88%
‐30.74%
16.83%19.77% 19.34%
15.05%
10.38%7.16% 5.40%
2.54%
‐1.73%
0.11%
‐40.00%
‐30.00%
‐20.00%
‐10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
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‐ 10 ‐
NATIONAL OVERALL CAP RATES
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‐ 11 ‐
Full‐Service, First‐Class, and Luxury Overall Cap Rates
6.07.08.09.0
10.011.012.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Overall Cap
Rate (%
)
PWC ‐ Full‐Service PWC ‐ Luxury
Situs RERC ‐ First Tier PWC ‐ Select‐Service
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‐ 12 ‐
NATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
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‐ 13 ‐
U.S. Hotel Transaction Volume by Year (Sales Above $2.5M)
Source: RCA
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000
2005200620072008200920102011201220132014
2014/15 2Q
Transaction Volume ($ in Millions)
$2.5M‐$10M $10M+
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‐ 14 ‐
DENVER HISTORICAL & FORECAST MARKET PERFORMANCE
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‐ 15 ‐
Forecast
Denver Occupancy is Expected to Decline as New Hotels Open
Source: HVS & STR
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
75.0%
80.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 f 2016 F 2017 f 2018 f
Denver Nation
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‐ 16 ‐
$70.00
$90.00
$110.00
$130.00
$150.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 f 2016 F 2017 f 2018 f
Denver Nation
Forecast
Denver ADR Expected to Stabilize After 2016
Source: HVS & STR
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‐ 17 ‐
Forecast
Denver RevPAR is Expected to Slightly Decline After 2016
Source: HVS & STR
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
$110.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 f 2016 F 2017 f 2018 f
Denver Nation
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‐ 18 ‐
DENVER NEW SUPPLY PIPELINE
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‐ 19 ‐
Major Proposed Developments
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‐ 20 ‐
More than 5,600 Rooms are Currently in the Pipeline
Millennium Magnolia Hotel Expansion
Westin Denver International Airport
Hyatt House Hotel Hyatt Place Hotel
Kimpton Hotel
Hyatt Fitzsimons Village HotelFairfield Inn & Suites245 Columbine Hotel
Z Block Mixed Use Development Hilton Home2 Suites
IHG Hotel Indigo Union Tower WestStarwood Westin Greenwood Village
Proposed Dry Creek Mixed Use Corporate Center
Residence Inn by Marriott Proposed TownePlace Suites by Marriott
Lone Tree Courtyard by Marriott Highlands Ranch
Source: HVS
2015 2016
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‐ 21 ‐
DENVER HOTEL VALUE EXPECTATION
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‐ 22 ‐
HVI – Hotel Values Expected to Decline After 2016
Source: http://hvi.hvs.com
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‐ 23 ‐
Denver Transactions (Last 12 Months)
Source: HVS & RCA
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‐ 24 ‐
ANY QUESTIONS?
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‐ 25 ‐ Superior results through unrivalled hospitality intelligence. Everywhere
Brett RussellDirector of Business Development, [email protected], +1 (720) 877‐1376
@hotelskigolf@HVS_Consulting