hvac market drivers and challenges - today and beyond 2020 ... · vrf market in the mea region top...
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HVAC market drivers and challenges - Today and beyond 2020
By Saziye Dickson of BSRIA
AC – comfort or a necessity?
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Presentation Title
• Global AC markets & Main Trends
• Special Focus on Middle East & Africa
• Technology
• Refrigerant diversity – where is the market heading?
• Solutions transition – the shift from product to solution
• Connected appliances – Global SMART Connected HVAC-R
Agenda
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Intro to BSRIA
BSRIA VALUES
Building Services Research & Information Association
BSRIA WMI• Consultancy, Test, Compliance and Research
• Promotes best practices in building
• Est. 1955, 800+ members
• Non-profit association
• Over 30 years of Market Intelligence
• Independent, authoritative studies
• Unrivalled technical expertise
• Research in 90+ countries
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Airtightness
Sound insulation testing
Thermal Imaging of Building Fabric
Ventilation Testing
Construction Compliance
Information & Membership
Technical publications
Training
Membership
Test
Standard testing
Bespoke testing
Witness and on-site testing
Product development, research and
troubleshooting
Instrumentation
Hire, Sales and Calibration of test and measurement
instruments
World Market Intelligence
Market Briefings
Market Reports
Private ClientResearch
Market Consultancy
Intro to BSRIA
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Presentation Title
Global AC Markets & Main Trends
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World AC Market
World Air Conditioning Market, 2017 to 2022 (F)
Total Units in 2018e: 145 millionCAGR 3.9%
Total Value in 2018e:USD 109 billion
CAGR 5.0%
Economic
Political
instability
Channel
changes
Refrigerants
Energy
efficiency
Mergers,
acquisitions
& alliances
Smart revolution
& Hybrid solutions
USD billionMillion units
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Source: BSRIA
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Single splits Market
World Market Single ductless splits, from 2017 to 2022 (F)
Million units
Source: BSRIA
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• 6% growth in 2018
• Most are heat pump units
• Europe all inverter followed by China
• Rapid rise in R32 refrigerants
• Unpredictable sales
• MEA and Europe growing fastest
USD 57 billion in 2018(e)Market Value
CAGR (2017-2022)3.8% Vol
104 million in 2018(e)Market volume
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AC VRF Market
World Market for VRF, outdoor units from 2017 to 2022 (F)
Million units
Source: BSRIA
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• 13% growth in 2018(e)
• Europe mature market
• Rapid development in the Americas
• Early days in the MEA
• Rapid success of mini-VRF for residential applications
• Competes with Unitary, Chillers and BACs
USD 12.8 billion in 2018(e)Market Value
CAGR (2017-2022)14.1% volume
2.3 million in 2018(e)Market volume
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AC Chiller Market
World Market for Chillers, USD million from 2017 to 2022 (F)
USD billion
Source: BSRIA
Source: BSRIA
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USD 8 billion in 2018(e)Market Value
CAGR (2017-2022)4.2 Value
0.4 million in 2018(e)Market volume
• 3% growth in 2018(e)
• Growth Inverter & reversible chillers
• Increase in capacities of compressors
• Rising demand centrifugal chillers
• Rise in modular chillers
• IP enabled chillers becoming the norm
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World fastest growing AC markets, CAGR 2016-22
Canada
USA
Mexico
Brazil
Argentina
SpainPortugal
UK
France
Belgium
GermanyItaly
Poland
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Iran
UAE
India
China
Russia
Australia
Japan
S. Korea
VietnamThailand Philippines
Indonesia
Hot spots >5% growthWarm spots 1-5% growthCold spots <1% growth
Source: BSRIA
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EgyptTunisia
Morocco
EthiopiaKenya
Tanzania
South Africa
NigeriaGhana
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Middle East & Africa
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- Protectionism- Trade wars- Diversification of economies- Increase custom duty/taxes- Free Trade Zones
Globalisation to Localisation
Qatar 4 Arab nations
XIran Nuclear dealUS vs China
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Single splits in the MEA Region
Source: BSRIA
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• 5% growth in 2018(e)
• Tighter EER Rating in established countries others follow- rising energy prices
• Growth in penetration of inverters – lowest Western Africa, strong in the Eastern and highest S. Africa
• Highest CAGR (2017-2022) with around 8%, by volume
• Production in Egypt, Nigeria and S. Africa
• Localisation is on the rise
**
**
*Estimate, ** Not updated this year
* DRAFT
VRF market in the MEA Region
Top 10 VRF markets in the MEA in 2018e by units
Source: BSRIA
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• 13% growth in 2018(e), and 11% CAGR (2017-2022)
• Relatively new market with rapid development
• New players coming in to the market
• Average prices down
• Lack of awareness and qualified installers limiting growth
• 100% Imported
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*Estimate, ** Not updated this year
DRAFT
AC Chiller Market
Top 10 chiller markets in the MEA in 2018e, USD million
Source: BSRIA
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• 2% growth in 2018 (e), USD millions
• Tightening Energy Efficiency standards pushing prices up
• Lack of public projects/capital
• Dominated by screw chillers
• District cooling projects pushing demand for centrifugal/absorption
• Rising electricity prices benefitting inverter chillers – ROI is key
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*Estimate, ** Not updated this year
DRAFT
Penetration of Inverters
Penetration in single and multi splits in key countries by volume %, 2017 and 2022 (F)
Penetration in chillers in key countries by volume %, 2017 and 2022 (F)
* Key 5 Europe = UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain
Source: BSRIASource: BSRIA
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Presentation Title
Refrigerant diversity – where is the market heading?
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Refrigerants in the UAE in AC
PAC by refrigerant 2017(e)
PAC by refrigerant 2022(e)
CPAC by refrigerant 2017(e)
CPAC by refrigerant 2022(e)
HCFC still main refrigerant in splits >60%
Competition is moving towards R410A and R32
Support needed for phase out incentives/taxes
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Refrigerants in Saudi Arabia in AC
PAC by refrigerant 2017(e)
PAC by refrigerant 2022(e)
CPAC by refrigerant 2017(e)
CPAC by refrigerant 2022(e)
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Ban on R22 in 2018 but imports allowed until further notice
R410 is the main refrigerant
Fastest transition in centrifugal chillers
What is the plan on Refrigerants?
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Splits
Shift from R410A to R32 By 2022 significant shift towards R1234ze
Screw
VRF
Shift from R410A to possibly to R32
Scroll
Uncertainty on R410A – Possibly R32 and propane
Major shift is towards R1234ze or R1233zd
Centrifugal
Outline of Actions on use of HCFs
Source: ww.env.go.jp
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• Complete lifecycle of gases and appliances must be considered• Training and educating the industry on these issues are paramount• Collective approach from manufacturers to local authorities/governments to FMs
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Presentation Title
Solutions transition – the shift from product to solution
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Products to Solutions
Heating & Renewables
Ventilation
Air Conditioning
Refrigeration
Building Controls
Smart b
uild
ings
Facilities Man
agemen
t
Energy M
anagem
ent
Co
nn
ectivity
• Multiple use and integration of technologies
• More JVs offer AC to HVAC solution
• New players and technologies cut-across current HVAC sectors
• Developing & educating workforce to stay competitive
• Increase focus on controls & software solutions
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Service and Maintenance
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r
Smart Appliances
Smart Devices
Smart Grid Management
Smart Metering
Smart Cities -Smart Government
Smart Distr. Energy
Smart Education
Smart Government
Smart Health
Smart Public Security
Smart Telecoms
Demand ResponseEnergy Storage &
Renewables
Smart Devices
Smart Grid
BACSBuilding Energy
Management
Smart Homes
r
Smart Fire & Security
Smart HVAC
Smart Buildings
Communicating Room Controllers Smart
Transport
The Smart World
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After Sales & Remote Monitoring Market in AC
• Significant chillers in the market due for upgrade or replacement
• Overall equipment capacity is falling due to increases in energy efficiency, therefore requiring smaller HX
• Replacement products for VRFs are starting to come through
• Corrective work also represents nearly third of the market value
• Trend to remote monitoring for high spec projects - but concerns over security
Scope: Germany, UK, Italy, Spain, France Source: BSRIA
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Presentation Title
Connected appliances – Global SMART Connected HVAC-R
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Where the Growth is Happening…
BACS, 21,899
BEMS, 5,014
Smart HVAC, 1,755
Smart Home, 15,808
Source: BSRIASource: BSRIA
Total Smart Buildings Market, 2017, USD million (Including Services)
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Smart HVAC accounts 4% of Total Smart Buildings
Key Global Trends in BACS
BACS is increasingly Software Based
Analytics Increasingly Important
+ 9.7%
+ 1.3%
+ 3.3%
+ 3.7%
+ 3.9%
Software
Hardware
Controllers
Field devices
Total Market
Source: BSRIA World BACS Study 2018
3.7%
4.3% 4.6% 4.6% 4.5%
1.5%2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2017 2018 (F) 2019(F) 2020(F) 2021(F) 2022(F)
Non-IP IP Growth IP Growth non IP
Source: BSRIA World BACS Study 2018
BACS Controllers and Devices increasingly IP CapableGlobal BACS - Forecast Annual Growth 2017 - 2022
2929
Opportunities inMiddle East & Africa
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Growth in the MEA Region in 2018 (e)
USD 6.1 billionPAC Market Value
CAGR5.8% Vol + 6.1% Val
8.6 millionPAC Market volume
Growth rates of air conditioning in MEA countries, 2018(e) (units)
Source: BSRIA Source: BSRIA
USD 1.8 billionCPAC Market value
CAGR4.7% Vol + 5.0% Val
0.9 millionCPAC Market volume
3131
DRAFT
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• Growing demand on AC & increasing disposable income
• Energy efficiency driving newer technologies/refrigerants
• An increasing number of devices are intelligent and IP connected
• Opportunities in after sales market
• Forecast growth for the MEA region is amongst highest
• Urbanisation in Africa, faster than any other continent
Summary
Thank you!
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THANK YOU
FOR ATTENDING
THE PRESENTATION Please don't forget to collect your CPD
certificate during the event from the CPD
collection area.
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